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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study

Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc

Page C-1 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd

February 2010

A Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

A.1 Proposed Area of Influence

The Area of Influence (AOI) of the traffic model is illustrated in Figure A1. The AOI adopts the Study

Area defined in the Study Brief as the basis with extension to cover not only the proposed NDAs at

Kwu Tung North, Fanling North, Ping Che and Ta Kwu Ling, but also the New Territories to the north

of ATC Screenline R-R, including Tai Po, Sheung Shui/ Fanling, Tuen Mun, Yuen Long and Tin Shui

Wai districts.

To examine the additional traffic which will distribute to all over the territory, other strategic highways

providing main accesses for the proposed NDAs such as Fanling Highway, Tolo Highway, Tuen

Mun Road, Tai Lam Tunnel, Yuen Long Highway and San Tin Highway etc. are covered within the

AOI.

A.2 Strategic Model Preparation

Arup’s in-house territory transport model was developed using EMME software which comprises a

traditional 4-stage model and is compatible with Transport Department’s Enhanced Comprehensive

Transport Study – 3 (ECTS3) model. It has been well-validated to year 2005 by territory-wide

cordons and screenlines and major corridors including Tolo Highway. It is hence recommended to

adopt this model as a basis and update it using the latest available planning data and land use data

for this study.

With the availability of the 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices

(TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July

2008 respectively, the base year model was developed for year 2006 and it was validated to 2006

traffic condition. The model input data for base year model setup is described in the following

sections:

A.2.1 Territorial Planning Data

The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) summarises the

land use data for base year 2006 and was provided by Planning Department. The key data is

summarised in Table 1.

Table 1 Summary of TPEDM Data for Base Year 2006

Population Employment Hotel Room

Hong Kong Island

Central & Western 263,542 377,746 4,746

Wan Chai 192,494 275,644 8,392

HK Eastern 588,016 273,372 2,823

HK Southern 279,943 92,420 176

Sub-total 1,323,995 1,019,181 16,137

Kowloon Urban

Yau Ma Tei 198,798 240,371 18,285

Mong Kok 137,413 119,221 2,999

Sham Shui Po 390,656 198,903 55

Kowloon City 371,887 176,124 2,453

Kwun Tong 594,471 282,511 3

Wong Tai Sin 429,846 94,631 0

Sub-total 2,123,072 1,111,761 23,795





February 2010

Population Employment Hotel Room

New Territories

Tsuen Wan 279,093 127,643 911

Kwai Chung 315,940 177,968 0

Tsing Yi 206,486 35,679 1,600

Tuen Mun 489,960 109,733 450

Yuen Long 143,775 50,237 26

Tin Shui Wai 272,217 30,742 561

Tai Po 252,714 73,122 40

Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 57,596 0

Shatin 431,749 160,760 1,065

Ma On Shan 194,997 30,620 831

Tseung Kwan O 348,877 64,488 0

North Lantau 89,245 68,649 2,545

Subtotal 3,262,616 987,237 8,029

Rural

Rural NWNT 145,282 39,942 51

Rural NENT 78,079 21,247 0

Rural SENT 64,472 22,259 0

Rural SWNT 67,398 18,354 221

Sub-total 355,231 101,802 272

Total 7,064,914 3,219,981 48,233

Notes:

• Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year

• Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients

• According to the hotel statistics published in the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics (October 2007), the average hotel room occupancy for year 2006 was about 87%

A.2.2 Highway and Railway Infrastructure

Since the strategic model has been updated to year 2005, further update was required to introduce

any highway and railway projects completed and operated in year 2006. In accordance with the

webpage information of Highways Department and rail operators, the following highway and railway

updates were incorporated into the strategic model for this study.

Highway

• Castle Peak Road Improvement between Area 2 and Sham Tseng, Tsuen Wan

• Widening of Yuen Long Highway between Lam Tei and Shap Pat Heung Interchange

Railway

• Opening of AsiaWorld-Expo Station





February 2010

A.2.3 Economic Growth

According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%.

A.2.4 Vehicle Fleet Size

The fleet size of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport Department as

shown in Table 2. The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle type are based on

information from Licensing Division/ TD.

Table 2 Vehicle Fleet Size for the Base Year 2006

Vehicle Class

Private Vehicles

Taxi

Goods Vehicles

Motorcycle Private Car

Goods Van

LGV MGV HGV Container Vehicle

Fleet Size 34,900 355,200 18,000 39,700 29,400 26,200 3,100 12,900

Sub-total 390,100 18,000 111,300

A.2.5 Cross Boundary Traffic

Base Year 2006 cross boundary traffic statistics were extracted from Transport Department’s

Monthly Traffic and Transport Digest, and are presented in Table 3.

Table 3 Year 2006 Cross Boundary Vehicular Traffic (in Vehicles/Day)

Vehicle Class Lok Ma Chau Man Kam To Sha Tau Kok Cross Boundary

Total

Bus/ Coach 3,120 238 263 3,621

GV 9,781 4,382 860 15,023

CT 9,028 2,177 295 11,500

Car 9,172 713 1,055 10,941

Total 31,101 7,511 2,473 41,085

A.2.6 Port Related Data

The port related data includes container throughput, port back-up and open storage data. The

container throughput was contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006

commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. Land use data relating to container port back-up

and open storage areas, on the other hand, was provided by Planning Department. The port related

data is summarised in Table 4.

Table 4 Port Related Data for Base Year 2006

Year Productivity of CTs 1-9

(in thousand TEUs per Year) Port Back-up Area (in

Hectares) Open Storage Area

(in Hectares)

2006 16,050 413.18 583.79

A.2.7 Airport

The total number of air passenger in 2006 was provided by Planning Department based on the

information received from Airport Authority HK. The figures are summarised in Table 5.

Table 5 Airport Usage in 2006

Parameter Total

Average Daily Air Passengers 79,000

Daily Cargo (Tonnes) 7,900

Source: Information from Airport Authority HK provided by PlanD.

A.2.8 Toll Data

Base Year 2006 road and tunnel tolls were extracted from Transport Department’s Annual Transport

Digest 2007, and is presented in Table 6.

Table 6 Toll Data for Base Year 2006





February 2010

Toll Facility Car Taxi Private/ Public

Light Bus

Goods Van

Light Goods Vehicle

Medium Goods Vehicle

Heavy Goods Vehicle

Tractor Unit

Lion Rock Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 12 12 18 18 18 23 23 38

Tseung Kwan O Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3

Shing Mun Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40

Western Harbour Crossing 1 40 35 50 55 55 80 110 140

Eastern Harbour Crossing 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100

Aberdeen Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Lantau Link 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80

Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 25 25 75 28 28 35 40 40

A.3 Base Year Model Validation

A.3.1 Screenline and Observed Traffic Data

To replicate the 2006 traffic conditions, this model was validated to the observed data obtained from

2006 Annual Traffic Census (ATC) traffic count data for Daily, AM and PM peak hour traffic in

pcu/hour (by direction) at the following screenlines (also illustrated in Figure A1):

• ATC Screenlines at Harbour Crossings;

• ATC Kowloon External Cordon (Kowloon Urban Area Boundary);

• ATC Tsing Yi External Cordon (Tsing Yi Area Boundary);

• ATC Screenline R-R (North end of Tsuen Wan & Shatin);

• ATC Screenline S-S (East End of Tuen Mun and Yuen Long);

• ATC Screenline T-T (North End of Tai Po & Yuen Long); and

• ATC Screenline Y-Y (Boundary between Tuen Mun & Yuen Long).

Apart from ATC screenlines, three local screenlines were selected within the AOI which could

further enhance the model validation by providing a powerful tool for checking the overall

performance of the model. The local screenlines are located at (also illustrated in Figure A1):

• Tuen Mun South Screenline which covers Tuen Mun Road and Castle Peak Road south of

Sam Shing Hui;

• San Tin Screenline which covers Castle Peak Road, San Tin Highway and San Tam Road

south of Fairview Park

• Fanling Screenline which covers Fan Kam Road, Tai Wo Service Road West and Fanling

Highway south of Wo Hop Shek Interchange.

Supplementary classified traffic count surveys for the selected screenlines were undertaken in

October 2008 on the normal weekdays from Tuesday to Thursday, for both AM and PM Peak

periods, i.e. 07:15-09:15 for the AM peak and 17:30-19:30 for the PM peak. The traffic count

surveys were adjusted back to 2006 traffic condition using the factor interrogated from ATC traffic

data, which accounted for 1-3% growth per annum. The model was validated to these observed

data for AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction).

Furthermore, for model validation purpose, daily figures in public transport patronage (no. of

passengers) for franchised buses and PLB/GMB at the defined screenlines were obtained from

2006 ATC. Traffic data on the daily ridership of MTRC East Rail Line and West Rail Line running

across the above screenlines were also collated from the Railway Development Office of Highways

Department.





February 2010

A.3.2 Validation Criteria

As a general guideline for model validation adopted in various Government Studies conducted by

Arup, the highway screenline model flow should be within 10% discrepancy of the observed traffic

flow for all screenlines. For public transport screenline validation, a target of 20% discrepancy was

adopted. The validation criteria are summarised in Table 7.

Table 7 Validation Guidelines

Validation Criteria Validation Target

Highway Screenline Daily Flows 100% within ± 10%

Highway Screenline AM Peak Flows 100% within ± 10%

Highway Screenline PM Peak Flows 100% within ± 10%

Transit Screenline Daily Peak Flows 100% within ± 20%

A.3.3 Highway Validation Summary

A summary of the daily and peak hour validation results is presented in Table 8 for the selected

screenlines. The results indicate that the differences of the modeled and observed screenline totals

are all within 10%.

Table 8 Highway Screenline Total Validation Summary

Screenline Bound

Total vehicles (PV+GV) in pcu

Daily AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour

Obs Mod Mod/ Obs

Obs Mod Mod/ Obs

Obs Mod Mod/ Obs

Cross Harbour Tunnels

N 127,300 125,100 0.98 6,500 6,500 1.01 8,000 7,500 0.94

S 126,200 125,600 0.99 8,200 7,900 0.96 7,000 7,000 1.01

Kowloon External Cordon

N 382,900 387,000 1.01 20,200 21,000 1.04 24,600 23,300 0.94

S 390,300 384,000 0.98 29,600 29,600 1.00 21,700 21,200 0.98

Tsing Yi External Cordon

In 206,600 202,400 0.98 13,700 13,500 0.98 12,300 11,800 0.96

Out 200,9100 201,900 1.00 13,200 13,000 0.98 11,600 11,400 0.98

R-R N 194,100 197,400 1.02 9,800 9,500 0.97 13,700 13,200 0.96

S 193,900 201,400 1.04 16,500 16,000 0.97 10,700 10,700 1.00

S-S

E 183,700 183,400 1.00 14,200 13,700 0.97 10,500 10,300 0.97

W 181,700 183,200 1.01 9,900 9,800 0.99 12,400 11,200 0.91

T-T N 154,800 143,600 0.93 9,400 9,200 0.98 9,800 9,600 0.98

S 150,900 156,900 1.04 10,100 10,500 1.04 9,100 9,500 1.04

Y-Y E 73,300 73,500 1.00 4,500 4,500 1.02 4,400 4,400 1.01

W 73,800 72,800 0.99 5,100 5,000 0.98 4,300 4,100 0.97

Tuen Mun South E - - - 5,000 5,100 1.02 3,600 3,400 0.95

W - - - 3,500 3,500 0.99 4,400 4,400 0.99

San Tin N - - - 4,200 4,400 1.04 4,200 4,400 1.06

S - - - 4,300 4,500 1.04 4,000 4,000 1.01

Fanling N - - - 4,500 4,700 1.05 5,300 5,000 0.96

S - - - 5,600 5,400 0.97 4,700 4,700 1.00

Note : The observed and modelled traffic flow are rounded to nearest hundred.

A.3.4 Transit Validation Summary

A summary of the validation results at the selected screenlines for patronage on road-based and

rail-based modes is presented in Tables 9. The results indicate that the differences of the modeled

and observed screenline totals are all within 20% for daily patronage except the rail patronage at

Screenline Y-Y, which is 24% lower than the observed. Considered that this screenline is located far

from the NDA areas and the rail network connection between NENT and NWNT is not direct, the

proportion of people travelling between North District and Tuen Mun District by East Rail and West

Rail should be comparatively minor. The validation result is therefore still acceptable for this Study.





February 2010

Table 9 Daily Transit Screenline Validation Summary

Screenline3 Bi-directional Patronage

Road-based (PLB + Bus) Rail-based

Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs

Cross Harbour Tunnels 798,500 857,000 1.07 941,000 979,700 1.04

Kowloon External Cordon 1,565,300 1,828,900 1.17 1,348,000 1,405,531 1.04

Tsing Yi External Cordon 911,900 991,800 1.09 226,000 236,680 1.05

R-R 855,700 802,800 0.94 530,000 524,119 0.99

S-S 876,300 814,000 0.93 110,000 110,095 1.00

T-T 301,100 271,500 0.90 362,823 375,992 1.04

Y-Y 66,200 53,300 0.81 91,000 69,256 0.76

Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.

Table 10 and Table 11 shows the AM and PM peak transit screenline validation summary.

Table 10 AM Peak Transit Screenline Validation Summary





Kowloon External Cordon 147,900 161,300 1.09 182,000 179,600 0.99


R-R 87,900 75,400 0.86 66,000 60,400 0.92

S-S 83,200 74,900 0.90 18,000 15,300 0.85

T-T 24,400 25,100 1.03 37,800 35,500 0.94

Y-Y 6,000 5,400 0.90 11,000 8,500 0.77


Table 11 PM Peak Transit Screenline Validation Summary





Kowloon External Cordon 131,400 142,700 1.09 140,000 153,900 1.10


R-R 72,900 61,100 0.84 50,000 51,000 1.02

S-S 74,800 60,800 0.81 12,000 9,100 0.76

T-T 23,800 19,200 0.81 32,600 35,700 1.09

Y-Y 5,000 3,600 0.72 10,000 6,500 0.65






February 2010

B Local Area Traffic Model Validation

B.1 Approach

Upon the validation of the base year strategic model, matrices were cordoned at the NENT area for

more detail road links and junctions validation by developing the local area traffic model (LATM)

using SATURN. The cordoned matrices were disaggregated into BDTM zone level with further zone

disaggregation and the local transport networks were also updated in accordance with the most up-

to-date information including the Method of Control (MOC) and time plan at each junction within the

proximity.

After running the assignment under LATM, the modeled traffic data were compared with the

observed traffic data for the road links by direction and for the key junctions by total in and out on

each arm. The results of the initial assignment runs were checked and identified for any

unreasonably high or low traffic flows, speeds, queues and delays. On the other hand, control on

the matrix estimation process has been in place to avoid over adjusting the matrices unreasonably.

This involves a thorough check on individual trip ends before and after the matrix estimation.

Significant adjustments in areas with no further development have been checked on their

reasonableness and where necessary, were capped for re-estimation. In this process, the final

matrices for the base year local area transport model matrices were produced.

B.2 Validation Result

B.2.1 Screenline, Cordon and Junction location

For the LATM validation, the modeled traffic data were compared with the observed selected major

screenline flows and key junction in/out flows.

A total of 3 screenlines plus 7 road links at cordon points were selected for the movements within

NENT and 11 key junctions have identified to be validated in the LATM. The locations of these

major road links and key junctions are shown in the below Figure.





February 2010

Supplementary classified traffic count surveys for the selected screenlines were undertaken in

October 2008 on the normal weekdays from Tuesday to Thursday, for both AM and PM Peak

periods, i.e. 07:15-09:15 for the AM peak and 17:30-19:30 for the PM peak. The traffic count

surveys were adjusted back to 2006 traffic condition using the factor interrogated from ATC traffic

data, which accounted for 1-3% growth per annum. The model was validated to these observed

data for AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction).

B.2.2 Validation Criteria

The guidelines for validation for this study adopted are the same as those for the Base District

Traffic Models (BDTMs) presented in Table 12 below.

Table 12 Validation Guidelines

Validation Criteria Validation Target

1. Total Screenline Flows 100% within ± 10%

2. Major Road Links 85% within ± 10%

100% within ± 20%

3. Key Junctions (Entry / Exit arm)

GEH 6 or less on 70% of links



The GEH statistic is a modified chi-square test of the form:

)(2

1

)(

21

2

12

VV

VV

+

−

where V1 and V2 are the observed and modeled flows on a specific link. This is used in order to

reflect importance of a difference based on the total volume on a link. If percentages alone are

examined then there is a risk of very large percentage differences in small flow volumes appearing

important when they are not. Use of the GEH statistic is designed to remove this risk by reducing

the significance of relatively large (percentage) differences between two small numbers. (For

example an absolute difference of 100 pcu/hr gives a big percentage difference if the flows are of

the order of 100 pcu/hr but will be unimportant for 1,000 pcu/hr). In general a GEH statistic of less

than 6.0 or 7.0 is considered adequate and less than 3.0 is very good.

B.2.3 Screenline and Cordon Validation

The validation results at each cordon point and major road links across screenlines within NENT

Area are summarised in Table 13 and the statistics is shown in Table 14. Again, the results

indicate that the differences at each cordon point and major road links are all within 20%.

Table 13 Cordon Points and Major Road Links Validation Summary

Screenline Bound

Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT1)

AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour

Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Observed Modeled Mod/Obs

San Tin Highway Cordon

N 4,834 4,912 1.02 4,298 4,297 1.00

S 4,862 4,722 0.97 3,965 3,930 0.99

Castle Peak Road Cordon

N 326 326 1.00 279 279 1.00

S 162 162 1.00 123 122 0.99

San Tam Raod Cordon N 222 222 1.00 220 220 1.00

S 532 530 1.00 520 516 0.99

Fan Kam Road Cordon N 418 419 1.00 426 426 1.00

S 478 471 0.99 458 454 0.99

Fanling Highway Cordon

N 4,794 4,792 1.00 4,901 4,899 1.00

S 5,773 5,647 0.98 4,375 4,343 0.99





February 2010

Screenline Bound



Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Observed Modeled Mod/Obs

Tai Wo Service Road N 260 260 1.00 450 450 1.00

West Cordon S 636 632 0.99 381 381 1.00

Bridge’s Pool Road N 260 260 1.00 450 450 1.00

Cordon S 636 609 0.96 381 380 1.00

Po Shek Wu Road N 1,282 1,338 1.04 1,360 1,401 1.03

at Screenline 1 S 1,522 1,533 1.01 1,655 1,621 0.98

So Kwun Po Road E 1,253 1,223 0.98 1,294 1,207 0.93

at Screenline 1 W 980 989 1.01 840 846 1.01

Sha Tau Kok Road N 1,037 1,102 1.06 810 826 1.02

at Screenline 1 S 980 969 0.99 948 985 1.04

San Wan Road N 291 294 1.01 371 369 0.99

at Screenline 1 S 565 495 0.88 504 512 1.02

Jockey Club Road W 1,342 1,394 1.04 1,692 1,739 1.03

at Screenline 1 E 1,333 1,345 1.01 1,479 1,467 0.99

Ma Sik Road E 842 764 0.91 595 559 0.94

at Screenline 2 W 782 789 1.01 651 637 0.98

Jockey Club Road E 636 643 1.01 575 581 1.01

at Screenline 2 W 673 670 1.00 617 630 1.02

San Wan Road E 507 556 1.10 441 460 1.04

at Screenline 2 W 527 536 1.02 590 635 1.08

Fanling Highway E 3,510 3,514 1.00 3,396 3,412 1.00

at Screenline 3 W 3,330 3,424 1.03 3,775 3,782 1.00

Castle Peak Road E 906 905 1.00 654 652 1.00

at Screenline 3 W 799 816 1.02 756 765 1.01

Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows.

Table 14 Statistics of Cordon Points and Major Road Links Validation Summary

Validation Target

Percentage of Major Road Link Flows

AM Peak PM Peak

Total (PV + GV+PT1) Total (PV + GV+PT1)

85% Within ±10% 97% 100%

100% Within ±20% 100% 100%






February 2010

B.2.3 Key Junction Validation for LATM

The validation of key junctions was undertaken for entry/exit flows on each arm separately. Table

15 summarises the results of validation and the statistic is presented in Table 16.

Table 15 Key Junction Validation Summary

Junction



Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH

Junction 1 - Lok Ma Chau Rd/ Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau

ENTRY ARM

Castle Peak Rd WB -Entry 502 508 0 549 370 8

Access Rd NB -Entry 634 694 2 859 711 5

Castle Peak Rd EB -Entry 432 378 3 457 407 2

Lok Ma Chau Rd -Entry 364 371 0 404 395 0

Sub-total 1,931 1,951 0 2,269 1,881 9

EXIT ARM

Castle Peak Rd WB -Exit 538 546 0 577 587 0

Castle Peak Rd EB -Exit 1,004 1,010 0 1,205 813 12

Lok Ma Chau Rd -Exit 389 395 0 487 481 0

Sub-total 1,931 1,951 0 2,269 1,881 9

Junction 2 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Ki Lun Tsuen local rd

ENTRY ARM

Kwu Tung Rd EB -Entry 425 419 0 502 522 1

Ki Lun Tsuen Rd -Entry 45 45 0 31 31 0

Kwu Tung Rd WB -Entry 265 267 0 456 733 11

Sub-total 734 730 0 989 1,286 9

EXIT ARM

Kwu Tung Rd EB -Exit 255 256 0 449 726 11

Ki Lun Tsuen Rd -Exit 20 21 0 30 30 0

Kwu Tung Rd WB -Exit 460 453 0 510 530 1

Sub-total 734 730 0 989 1,286 9

Junction 3 - Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau/ Connection to Kwu Tung Rd

ENTRY ARM

Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 342 349 0 299 295 0

Connection Road NB -Entry 337 385 3 438 450 1

Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 349 359 1 578 730 6

To Fanling Slip SB -Entry 382 392 0 510 675 7

Sub-total 1,410 1,485 2 1,825 2,149 7

EXIT ARM

Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 234 271 2 356 373 1

Connection Road NB -Exit 378 395 1 470 648 8

Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 416 428 1 489 453 2

Sub-total 1,028 1,094 2 1,315 1,474 4

Junction 4 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Connection to Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau

ENTRY ARM

Kwu Tung Road WB -Entry 448 444 0 664 659 0

Kwu Tung Road EB -Entry 186 177 1 304 314 1

Connection SB -Entry 307 314 0 367 284 5

Fr Fanling Slip SB -Entry 422 469 2 546 476 3

Sub-total 1,362 1,404 1 1,881 1,732 3

EXIT ARM

Kwu Tung Road WB -Exit 175 169 0 153 147 0

Kwu Tung Road EB -Exit 541 541 0 909 828 3





February 2010

Junction




Connection SB -Exit 226 227 0 276 285 1

Sub-total 942 937 0 1,338 1,260 2

Junction 5 - Castle Peak Road - Chau Tau/ Ho Sheung Heung Rd

ENTRY ARM


Ho Sheung Heung Rd SB -Entry 433 429 0 402 400 0


Sub-total 1,249 1,259 0 1,151 1,146 0

EXIT ARM


Ho Sheung Heung Rd SB -Exit 453 460 0 439 440 0


Sub-total 1,249 1,257 0 1,151 1,143 0

Junction 6 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Kam Hang Rd

ENTRY ARM

Kwu Tung Road EB -Entry 123 119 0 133 140 1

Kam Hang Road NB -Entry 205 368 10 155 196 3

Kwu Tung Road WB -Entry 364 249 7 286 239 3

Sub-total 692 737 2 574 574 0

EXIT ARM

Kwu Tung Road EB -Exit 337 332 0 242 235 0

Kam Hang Road NB -Exit 218 221 0 216 216 0

Kwu Tung Road WB -Exit 136 182 4 116 124 1

Sub-total 692 736 2 574 574 0

Junction 7 - Castle Peak Rd - Kwu Tung/ Kwu Tung Rd

ENTRY ARM

Kwu Tung Road SB -Entry 264 196 5 153 131 2



Sub-total 1,096 1,077 1 996 1,012 1

EXIT ARM

Kwu Tung Road SB -Exit 222 232 1 192 226 2



Sub-total 1,096 1,077 1 996 1,012 1

Junction 8 - Tai Wo Service Road West/ Access Road to Tai Hang

ENTRY ARM

TWSRW NB -Entry 256 263 0 337 432 5

Tai Hang Rd EB -Entry 95 124 3 41 69 4

TWSRW SB -Entry 377 476 5 236 283 3

Sub-total 727 863 5 614 784 6

EXIT ARM

TWSRW NB -Exit 440 575 6 232 305 4

Tai Hang Rd EB -Exit 87 86 0 101 109 1

TWSRW SB -Exit 200 202 0 281 370 5

Sub-total 727 863 5 614 784 6

Junction 9 - Sha Tau Kok Rd/ Ping Che Rd

ENTRY ARM

Sha Tau Kok Road NB -Entry 1,056 1,035 1 955 958 0

Ping Che Road EB -Entry 240 238 0 532 531 0





February 2010

Junction




Sha Tau Kok Road SB -Entry 755 810 2 921 920 0

Sub-total 2,051 2,083 1 2,408 2,408 0

EXIT ARM

Sha Tau Kok Road NB -Exit 821 856 1 1,258 1,261 0

Ping Che Road EB -Exit 611 604 0 469 466 0

Sha Tau Kok Road SB -Exit 619 622 0 681 681 0

Sub-total 2,051 2,082 1 2,408 2,408 0

Junction 10 - Man Kam To Road/ Ping Che Road

ENTRY ARM

Ping Che Road NB -Entry 28 28 0 24 25 0

Man Kam To Road EB -Entry 33 37 1 21 23 1

Man Kam To Road WB -Entry 38 38 0 24 24 0

Sub-total 98 104 1 69 72 0

EXIT ARM

Ping Che Road NB -Exit 22 26 1 20 22 1

Man Kam To Road EB -Exit 39 39 0 25 26 0

Man Kam To Road WB -Exit 38 38 0 24 24 0

Sub-total 98 104 1 69 72 0


Table 16 Key Junctions Validation Summary

Validation Target

Percentage of Key Junction Entry/Exit Flows

AM Peak PM Peak

Total (PV + GV+PT) Total (PV + GV+PT)

70% Within GEH 6 97% 90%

80% Within GEH 7 98% 92%

95% Within GEH 10 100% 95%

The results show that the key junctions are well validated as the validation criteria for GEH 6, 7 and

10 are all met for both AM and PM peak periods.

As demonstrated in the screenline, major road link and junction validation summaries, the LATM

was developed satisfactorily in replicating the existing traffic flow pattern and shows high degree of

agreement between the modeled flows and observed traffic data.





February 2010

C Design Year Model Development

C.1 Strategic Model Preparation

Based on the calibrated/validated TM, a set of reference scenario of future year models will be

developed by adopting the latest available planning assumptions, committed highway infrastructures

and railway projects, vehicle fleet sizes, cross boundary traffic, GDP growth and port related

assumptions etc.

The model input assumption for this Study has been recorded in the Technical Note– Parameters,

Assumptions and Input data of the Traffic Model circulated in November 2007. However, while the

transport model for this Study was developing in 2008, the “North East New Territories New

Development Areas Planning and Engineering Study – Investigation” (NENT NDA Study) has

commenced with a more updated set of planning parameters and input assumptions provided by

various government departments which were reported in its Technical Report 3C. Considered the

FCA is in vicinity of the NDAs, it is better to adopt the same set of planning assumptions as the

reference model scenario for consistency. The details of data collection and analysis are reported in

the following sub sections.

C.1.1 Territorial Planning Data

The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data

released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively will be

adopted in this Study. Planning data for Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 were provided by

Planning Department in the NENT NDA Study. The same set of planning data will be adopted in this

Study for consistency.

Summaries of the population and employment planning data by district for the base year 2006 and

design years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 are presented in Table 17 and Table 18 respectively.

Table 17 Summary of Population Data for Base Year and Design Years

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Hong Kong Island

Central & Western 263,542 288,552 277,353 277,241 296,554

Wan Chai 192,494 210,195 202,515 203,007 211,804

HK Eastern 588,016 585,613 581,649 582,727 601,331

HK Southern 279,943 301,469 316,814 320,270 331,352

Sub-total 1,323,995 1,385,829 1,378,331 1,383,245 1,441,042

Kowloon Urban

Yau Ma Tei 198,798 230,982 241,427 242,953 255,932

Mong Kok 137,413 147,396 141,044 141,707 151,354

Sham Shui Po 390,656 463,342 497,963 504,408 529,357

Kowloon City 371,887 439,563 490,479 494,130 511,128

Kwun Tong 594,471 670,920 708,767 716,163 739,908

Wong Tai Sin 429,846 427,518 439,650 442,592 454,435

Sub-total 2,123,072 2,379,721 2,519,331 2,541,953 2,642,115

New Territories

Tsuen Wan 279,093 285,619 283,693 286,004 296,314

Kwai Chung 315,940 315,533 336,273 343,011 354,862

Tsing Yi 206,486 197,166 197,704 198,394 203,809





February 2010

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tuen Mun 489,960 520,486 572,950 579,859 599,218

Yuen Long 143,775 163,169 158,763 160,766 178,846

Tin Shui Wai 272,217 315,291 321,783 324,890 332,725

Tai Po 252,714 257,215 252,532 254,106 261,945

Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 258,035 360,293 362,590 371,124

Shatin 431,749 496,441 493,268 496,254 510,158

Ma On Shan 194,997 223,556 226,657 225,987 229,107

Tseung Kwan O 348,877 426,455 449,313 449,035 456,436

North Lantau 89,245 143,045 223,705 288,974 297,027

Subtotal 3,262,616 3,602,012 3,876,936 3,969,869 4,091,571

Rural

Rural NWNT 145,282 206,684 217,582 368,518 410,960

Rural NENT 78,079 105,626 110,643 238,326 262,997

Rural SENT 64,472 78,959 80,404 85,421 101,059

Rural SWNT 67,398 76,103 76,648 80,255 88,936

Sub-total 355,231 467,372 485,277 772,520 863,953

Total 7,064,914 7,834,935 8,259,874 8,667,588 9,038,681

Notes:

• Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year

• Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients

Table 18 Summary of Employment Data for Base Year and Design Years

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Hong Kong Island

Central & Western 377,746 385,564 380,109 388,632 395,489

Wan Chai 275,644 274,184 280,467 275,378 269,372

HK Eastern 273,372 295,064 288,692 282,913 277,692

HK Southern 92,420 107,287 104,847 111,198 113,032

Sub-total 1,019,181 1,062,099 1,054,115 1,058,120 1,055,585

Kowloon Urban

Yau Ma Tei 240,371 243,344 235,600 233,508 228,346

Mong Kok 119,221 116,438 112,907 114,423 111,732

Sham Shui Po 198,903 209,586 211,116 209,777 205,923

Kowloon City 176,124 196,568 205,951 208,959 205,303

Kwun Tong 282,511 348,396 373,872 376,058 383,435

Wong Tai Sin 94,631 103,031 103,980 105,899 106,213

Sub-total 1,111,761 1,217,364 1,243,426 1,248,623 1,240,952





February 2010

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tsuen Wan 127,643 140,177 143,869 140,006 135,730

Kwai Chung 177,968 194,933 210,277 212,314 207,755

Tsing Yi 35,679 38,736 38,689 38,437 37,418

Tuen Mun 109,733 119,839 118,079 114,505 111,543

Yuen Long 50,237 61,543 60,508 61,489 62,698

Tin Shui Wai 30,742 35,246 34,381 33,714 33,565

Tai Po 73,122 82,127 81,621 79,163 78,174

Fanling/Sheung Shui 57,596 61,099 61,806 64,784 62,890

Shatin 160,760 171,762 165,139 162,367 159,963

Ma On Shan 30,620 37,352 38,298 37,893 38,069

Tseung Kwan O 64,488 78,055 83,321 86,577 84,362

North Lantau 68,649 112,594 137,000 148,161 147,935

Subtotal

Rural

Rural NWNT 39,942 46,082 47,145 53,626 87,853

Rural NENT 21,247 23,351 28,491 30,949 37,013

Rural SENT 22,259 23,453 24,406 25,512 26,676

Rural SWNT 18,354 23,246 22,393 22,942 23,528

Sub-total 101,802 116,132 122,434 133,030 175,070

Total 3,219,981 3,529,057 3,592,963 3,619,181 3,631,709

It is assumed in TPEDM that CT10 will be located at Northwest Lantau. Following the assumption

made in the NENT NDA Study, however, CT10 will be assumed at Southwest Tsing Yi. The

employment places generated due to CT10 construction/ operation should therefore be relocated

from Northwest Lantau to Southwest Tsing Yi. The relocation of employment data is carried out

according to following:

• By comparing the employment data from year 2006 to year 2031, the employment types related

to CT10 in Northwest Lantau are identified.

• Derive a growth rate from the 2006 to 2011 employment data of each identified employment type

and project the data to year 2021, 2026 and 2031. It is regarded as the growth of employment

places at Northwest Lantau even if CT10 is not in place.

• The difference between the original employment data and the projected data for year 2021, 2026

and 2031 is assumed as the employment places generated for CT10. Such employment data is

added to the CT10 location at Southwest Tsing Yi.

The adjusted employment data for CT10 relocation is shown in Table 19.

Table 19 Adjusted Employment Data for CT10 Relocation

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

New Territories

Tsing Yi 35,679 40,419 39,619 39,613 39,179





February 2010

Rural

Rural SWNT 18,354 21,563 21,463 21,766 21,767

C.1.2 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions

Under the NENT NDA Study, Transport Department has been consulted for the latest highway

network assumptions to be adopted and it is presented in Table 20. The same assumption was

adopted in this Study for consistency.





February 2010

Table 20 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and Beyond

Year 2016 (In addition to Base Year 2006 Road Network) Configuration

Hong Kong

Road P2 and realigned Hung Hing Road on Wan Chai Development Phase II D2

Road P1, P2 and Distributor Roads on Central Reclamation Phase III D2

Kowloon

Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Central Kowloon Route D3

Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Trunk Road T2 (Kai Tak – Cha Kwo Ling Link). D2

New Territories

Route 9 Extension from Shek Wai Kok to Chai Wan Kok D2

Castle Peak Road Widening (Tsuen Wan Area 2 to Ka Loon Tsuen) D2

Castle Peak Road Widening (Ka Loon Tsuen to Siu Lam) D2

Route 8 (formerly Route 9) (Tsing Yi to Sha Tin) D3

Widening of Tung Chung Road S2

Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Tseung Kwan O – Lam Tin Tunnel D2

Cross Bay Link at Tseung Kwan O D2

Widening of Tolo Highway/Fanling Highway between Island House Interchange and Fanling (Stage 1 – Section between Island House Interchange and Tai Hang) and (Stage 2 – Section between Tai Hang and Wo Hop Shek Interchange)

D4

Tsuen Wan Bypass, Widening of Tsuen Wan Road between Tsuen Tsing Interchange and Kwai Tsing Interchange, and Associated Junction Improvement Works

Add 2 lanes per direction

Dualling of Hiram’s Highway between Clear Water Bay Road and Sai Kung Town D2

Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge Hong Kong Link Road D3

Sha Tin Trunk Road T4 D2

Reconstruction and Improvement to Tuen Mun Road D3

Tuen Mun – Chek Lap Kok Link and Tuen Mun Western Bypass D2

Traffic Improvement to Tuen Mun Road (Town Centre Section) D3

Cross Boundary

Shenzhen Bay Bridge D3

Kong Sham Western Highway D3

Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge and its Hong Kong Link Road D3

Year 2021 (In addition to 2016 Road Network) Configuration

Hong Kong

Central – Wan Chai Bypass and Island Eastern Corridor Link D3/D41

Island Eastern Corridor Improvement between Causeway Bay and North Point D4/D51

Kowloon

Widening of Gascoigne Road Flyover D2

New Territories

Link Road to Liangtang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point D2





February 2010

Year 2026 (In addition to 2021 Road Network) and beyond Configuration

New Territories

Lantau Road P1 between Sham Shui Kok and Yam O D2

Note:

The configuration of the highway varies at different sections of the road

The Link Road to Liantang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point has been assumed in

place by year 2021. The same alignment option of the Liantang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross Boundary

Control Point and associated link roads adopted in the NENT NDA Study will be incorporated into

the transport model for this Study.

C.1.3 Railway Projects Assumptions

The railway network assumption is obtained from the Railway Development Office of Highways

Department under the NENT NDA Study. It will be adopted for this Study for consistency and the

assumption is listed in Table 21.

Table 21 Railway Project Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and beyond

By Year 2016 (In addition to 2006 Existing Railway Network)

Lok Ma Chau Spur Line

Tseung Kwan O South Station

Kowloon Southern Link

Kwun Tong Line Extension

Shatin to Central Link (East-West Line)

West Island Line

South Island Line East

Guangzhou – Shenzhen – Hong Kong Express Rail Link

By Year 2021 (In addition to 2016 Railway Network)

Shatin to Central Link (North-South Line)

South Island Line West

Northern Link

North Hong Kong Island Line

Opening of Hung Shui Kiu MTR Station

By Year 2026 and beyond (In addition to 2021 Railway Network)

Opening of Tai Ho Wan MTR Station

Opening of Kwu Tung MTR Station

Port Rail Line (PRL) is not included in the list. PRL should have insignificant effect on vehicular traffic

as it mainly caters for cargo well in the Mainland hinterland

C.1.4 Economic Growth

According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%. For the future design years, reference data

provided by the Transport Department in the NENT NDA Study which is based on the information

advised by Financial Secretary’s Office will be adopted. Table 22 summarises the GDP growth

assumptions.





February 2010

Table 22 Assumed GDP Growth Rates for the Design Years

Year Annual GDP Growth Rate (in Real Terms)

2006 7.0%

2007 6.4%

2008 – 2012 4.5%

2013 - 2016 3.6%

2017 - 2021 3.0%

2022 - 2026 2.5%

2027 - 2031 2.4 %

Source: 2006/07 figure is based on C&SD’s information released. The rest are based on the information as advised by Financial Secretary’s Office in March 2008.

C.1.5 Vehicle Fleet Sizes

The fleet size assumption of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport

Department under the NENT NDA Study. It will also be adopted for this Study for consistency and

the assumption is shown in Table 23. The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle

type are based on information from Licensing Division/ TD.

Table 23 Projections of Vehicle Fleet Sizes for the Design Years

Vehicle Class Mid-2006 Mid-2016 Mid-2021 Mid-2026 Mid-2031

Private Vehicles

Motorcycle 34,900 45,000 48,500 50,900 53,600

Private Car 355,200 458,000 493,400 518,700 545,000

Sub-total 390,100 503,000 541,900 569,600 598,600

Taxi 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000

Goods Vehicles • • •

Goods Van 39,700 40,400 41,400 42,400 43,500

LGV 29,400 29,900 • 30,700 • 31,400 32,200

MGV 26,200 26,600 • 27,300 • 28,000 28,700

HGV 3,100 3,200 3,200 3,300 3,400

Container Vehicle 12,900 13,100 13,500 13,800 14,100

Sub-total 111,300 113,100 116,000 118,900 121,900

Note: The numbers may not add up to the Sub-total number due to rounding

It is noted that the number of licensed taxis has remained relatively unchanged at around 18,000

vehicles with a mere increase by less than 200 vehicles over the 10-year period from 1996 to 2006.

Assuming this trend is to continue, the taxi fleet is assumed to remain stagnant at 18,000 vehicles

for the entire forecasting period.





February 2010

C.1.6 Cross Boundary Traffic

The latest cross boundary traffic forecast provided by Planning Department under the NENT NDA

Study is adopted for this Study for consistency. The assumption is shown in Table 24.

Table 24 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast (in daily vehicles)

Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030

Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 2,600 2,700

GV 9,500 9,200

CT 9,800 9,500

Car 16,600 20,800

Total 38,500 42,100

Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 300 400

GV 1,900 1,900

CT 1,800 1,800

Car 3,900 4,800

Total 7,900 9,000

Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 400 500

GV 800 700

CT 600 600

Car 1,100 1,400

Total 3,000 3,200

Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP) Bus/ Coach 3,300 5,100

GV 21,600 25,500

CT 21,500 25,400

Car 34,000 54,500

Total 80,300 110,500

Hong Kong – Zhuhau Macao Bridge (HZMB)

Bus/ Coach 2,800 4,200

GV 1,200 2,100

CT 1,700 2,700

Car 7,500 14,800

Total 13,200 23,900

Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 9,400 12,900

GV 35,000 39,400

CT 35,400 39,900

Car 63,000 96,400

Total 142,800 188,700

Source: From HK2030 Study by Planning Department, October 2007





February 2010

Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP was not included in the traffic forecasts in HK2030 as shown in

Table 24. The estimation of traffic movements at BCPs should be as follows:

• adopt the traffic forecasts at various BCPs from the HK 2030 as shown in Table 24 and those

at Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP from the Shenzhen – Hong Kong Preliminary Planning

Study on Developing Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai Control Point (Liantang Study)

• divert traffic from other BCPs to Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP based on the Liantang Study

results to derive the traffic volumes for 2020 and 2030 at all BCPs. Results are shown in the

Table 25

• interpolate or extrapolate from 2020 and 2030 figures to produce 2021, 2026 and 2031

estimates as shown in Table 26

Table 25 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast – with Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai BCP (in daily vehicles)


Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 3,200 3,400

GV 4,100 2,900

CT 4,200 3,000

Car 15,600 19,100

Total 27,100 28,400

Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 400 500

GV 800 600

CT 800 600

Car 3,700 4,500

Total 5,700 6,200

Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 500 700

GV 300 200

CT 300 200

Car 1,000 1,300

Total 2,100 2,400

Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP) Bus/ Coach 3,400 5,300

GV 21,200 25,000

CT 21,100 24,900

Car 33,900 54,500

Total 79,600 109,700


Bus/ Coach 2,900 4,300

GV 1,000 1,900

CT 1,500 2,500

Car 7,400 14,800

Total 12,800 23,500

Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai (LT/HYW)

Bus/ Coach 600 800

GV 7,500 8,700

CT 7,500 8,700

Car 1,400 2,400





February 2010


Total 17,000 20,600

Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 11,000 15,000

GV 34,900 39,300

CT 35,400 39,900

Car 63,000 96,600

Total 144,300 190,800

Table 26 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast for Model Design Years (in daily vehicles)

Cross Vehicle Type 2016 2021 2026 2031

Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400

GV 4,600 4,000 3,400 2,800

CT 4,700 4,100 3,500 2,900

Car 14,200 16,000 17,700 19,500

Total 26,600 27,300 27,900 28,600

Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 400 400 500 500

GV 900 800 700 600

CT 900 800 700 600

Car 3,400 3,800 4,200 4,600

Total 5,600 5,800 6,100 6,300

Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 400 500 600 700

GV 300 300 200 200

CT 300 300 200 200

Car 900 1,000 1,200 1,300

Total 1,900 2,100 2,200 2,400

Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP)

Bus/ Coach 2,600 3,600 4,500 5,500

GV 19,700 21,600 23,500 25,400

CT 19,600 21,500 23,400 25,300

Car 25,700 36,000 46,300 56,600

Total 67,600 82,700 97,700 112,800


Bus/ Coach 2,300 3,000 3,700 4,400

GV 600 1,100 1,500 2,000

CT 1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600

Car 4,400 8,100 11,800 15,500

Total 8,400 13,800 19,100 24,500

Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai (LT/HYW)

Bus/ Coach - 600 700 800

GV - 7,600 8,200 8,800

CT - 7,600 8,200 8,800

Car - 1,500 2,000 2,500





February 2010

Cross Vehicle Type 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total - 17,300 19,100 20,900

Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 8,800 11,400 13,400 15,400

GV 26,100 35,300 37,500 39,700

CT 26,600 35,900 38,100 40,400

Car 48,600 66,400 83,200 100,000

Total 110,100 149,000 172,200 195,500

C.1.7 Port Related Land Use Assumptions

This Study will adopt the port related assumptions adopted in the NENT NDA Study which are

based on the container throughput forecasts contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo

Forecasts 2005/2006 commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. A summary of the

assumptions of future container terminals productivity is presented in Table 27. It is assumed that

CT10 will be required by year 2020.

There is no decision on the location of the proposed Container Terminal 10 (CT10) at this stage. As

the reference scenario, CT10 will be assumed at Southwest Tsing Yi in this Study.

Table 27 Estimated Productivity of Container Terminals (in thousand TEUs per Year)

Year CTs 1-9 New Container Terminal (CT10)

Total

2006 16,050 - 16,050

2016 21,470 - 21,470

2021 25,150 1,160 26,310

2026 25,150 4,250 29,400

2031 25,150 6,980 32,130

Source: Container Terminal Capacity information is based on the Study on Hong Kong Port Forecasts 2005/2006 provided by Transport and Housing Bureau. The new container berths would be required by 2020 under the A2 Capacity Scenario.

Note: The future year forecast for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 is projected from 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

Land use data relating to container port back-up and open storage areas are summarised in Table

28 by broad district. 2006 and 2008 port back-up and open storage areas data is provided by PlanD

under the NENT NDA Study which will be adopted as the basis in this Study for consistency. As

there are no existing available projections on port back-up areas based on the existing inventory,

the following methodology is adopted in estimating the forecast of port backup data:

• Assume no change in port backup data at CT1–9 from 2008 inventory

• Adopt the assumption for the planned new supply by year 2020 in “the Study on Hong Kong

Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006”, which includes CT10 and the NDAs.

• Assume the port backup data for NDAs to be maintained the same from 2020 onwards. For

CT10, it is assumed that the first berth is needed by 2020 and all four berths will be needed by

2026.

• Derive a growth factor for the port backup data in other areas (excluding CT1-10 and the

NDAs) with reference to the territory-wide total provided in “the Study on Hong Kong Port

Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006” and apply to the 2008 inventory.

For the open storage area, there is no published information available for the design years. Although

significant changes to such land uses may not be likely, the open storage use at the NDA areas may

be reduced for development purpose. For design year model setup, the open storage data in NDAs





February 2010

is assumed to be reduced at the same extent as the port backup data of the corresponding NDA.

The open storage data in other areas will assume the same as the existing provisions.

Table 28 Base Year 2006 and Design Years Port Backup and Open Storage Areas (in hectares)

Broad District

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Hong Kong Island

Central & Western

0.48 0.12 0.50 0.12 0.55 0.12 0.51 0.12 0.48 0.12

Wan Chai 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

HK Eastern 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01

HK Southern 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46

Sub-total 0.48 2.59 0.50 2.59 0.55 2.59 0.51 2.59 0.48 2.59

Kowloon Urban

Yau Ma Tei 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mong Kok 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sham Shui Po 5.54 3.96 6.42 3.45 7.04 3.45 6.57 3.45 6.11 3.45

Kowloon City 0.00 2.25 2.97 1.29 3.26 1.29 3.04 1.29 2.82 1.29

Kwun Tong 3.21 7.72 4.24 7.34 4.65 7.34 4.34 7.34 4.03 7.34

Wong Tai Sin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sub-total 8.75 13.93 13.62 12.07 14.95 12.07 13.96 12.07 12.96 12.07

New Territories

Tsuen Wan 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86

Kwai Chung 68.66 1.07 71.04 0.72 75.65 0.72 72.20 0.72 68.76 0.72

Tsing Yi 34.03 6.61 41.93 6.61 90.50 6.61 115.97 6.61 141.43 6.61

Tuen Mun 26.28 9.12 19.99 11.25 21.94 11.25 20.48 11.25 19.02 11.25

Yuen Long 30.75 24.28 31.08 28.11 34.11 28.11 31.85 28.11 29.58 28.11

Tin Shui Wai 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tai Po 0.00 5.05 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15

Fanling/Sheung Shui

7.15 7.68 5.83 7.00 3.41 4.77 3.29 4.77 3.17 4.77

Shatin 2.78 9.82 2.90 9.63 3.18 9.63 2.97 9.63 2.76 9.63

Ma On Shan 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92

Tseung Kwan O 0.35 4.86 0.37 5.55 0.40 5.55 0.38 5.55 0.35 5.55

North Lantau 0.00 2.60 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46

Subtotal 169.99 72.41 173.14 79.27 229.20 77.04 247.13 77.04 265.07 77.04

Rural

Rural NWNT 198.93 358.41 201.04 329.48 214.35 324.73 201.13 324.73 187.91 324.73

Rural NENT 33.38 127.28 27.98 100.36 25.07 75.51 24.51 75.51 23.95 75.51

Rural SENT 1.65 7.51 1.72 6.25 1.89 6.25 1.76 6.25 1.64 6.25

Rural SWNT 0.00 1.66 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74





February 2010

Broad District

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Port Back-up Area

Open Storage Area

Sub-total 233.96 494.86 230.74 437.83 241.31 408.22 227.40 408.22 213.49 408.22

Total 413.18 583.79 418.00 531.76 486.00 499.92 489.00 499.92 492.00 499.92

Note:

• Port Back-up Area includes Container Depot, Container Yard, Container Vehicle Park and Container Vehicle Repair Workshop.

• Source Data provided by Planning Department (as at Oct 2006 and Feb 2008)

• Future new planned supply of port backup area is based on the assumption in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006. Interpolation has been done to convert the forecast years in the PCFs 2005/06 to the design years of the Study.

C.1.8 Airport

The assumption of air passenger (excluding transit passengers) and air cargo (excluding

transhipment) forecasts was provided by Planning Department under the NENT NDA Study and will

be adopted for this Study for consistency. The details of the forecasts are shown in Table 29.

Table 29 Airport Usage in the Design Years

Parameter 2016 2021 2026 2031

Daily Air Passengers 109,900 126,800 146,300 168,800

Daily Air Cargo (Tonnes) 12,100 14,900 18,400 22,700

Source: The above forecasts were prepared by PlanD in February 2008 with reference to information from the Airport Authority HK.

Note: 2026 forecast is estimated by interpolation between 2021 and 2030 data. 2031 forecast is estimated by extrapolation between 2021 and 2030 data.

C.1.9 Toll Assumptions

Future tolls are assumed to remain constant in real terms. The same assumption adopted in the

NENT NDA Study will be incorporated into the transport model for this Study. For government

tunnels with an existing flat toll structure, the same flat toll structure will be maintained for future

design years. Prevailing concessionary tolls on Western Harbour Crossing and Tai Lam Tunnel as

at Oct 2007 are adopted. Toll assumptions in 2008 dollars are shown in Table 30.

Table 30 Toll Assumptions – 2008 Dollars


Light Bus

Goods Van

Light Goods Vehicle


Heavy Goods Vehicle

Tractor Unit

Lion Rock Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 14 14 21 21 21 25 25 43

Tseung Kwan O Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Shing Mun Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40

Western Harbour Crossing 1 45 40 55 55 55 80 110 140

Eastern Harbour Crossing 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100

Aberdeen Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Lantau Link 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80

Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 28 28 90 30 30 35 40 40

Route 8 Eagle Nest Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

TKO-Lam Tin Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3





February 2010


Light Bus

Goods Van

Light Goods Vehicle


Heavy Goods Vehicle

Tractor Unit

Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link 4 15 15 20 20 20 25 40 40

Tuen Mun Western Bypass 4 28 28 90 30 30 35 40 40

Source: Toll charges published by the operators.

Note:

1. Concessionary Tolls in effect

2. Toll booths of Lantau Link are located in the eastbound direction only. The figures presented are 2-way tolls collected only in the eastbound direction

3. Being the parallel route to Tseung Kwan O Tunnel, the toll level of the future TKO-Lam Tin Tunnel is assumed as the TKO Tunnel toll as at 2008

4. The toll assumption is consistent with Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link Feasibility Study

5. Proposed highway projects (including the committed ones and those under planning) are shown in italics as their actual toll levels could only be determined nearer the time of opening

Appendix C – Figure A1

a transport modelling approach and validation · 2018-01-24 · appendix c – transport modelling...

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