a visual history of the next big thing...and how to see the next one coming
DESCRIPTION
In business, vision isn’t some mythical ability to see the future. It’s about being able to recognize a pattern and apply it to something new, before others see it coming. In this presentation, we’ll introduce you to one such pattern, the incubation of new media within old media. We’ll then review some examples of how the pattern has repeated itself over the past 30-years, from one Big Thing to the Next. We’ll then apply the pattern in the here-and-now, to see how it points to The Next Big Things.TRANSCRIPT
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Peter SweeneyFounder & President, Primal
A Visual History of the Next Big Thing
...and how to see The Next One coming
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Vision is being able to recognize a pattern and apply it to something new, before others see it coming.
What is Vision?
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New Media as Features in Old MediaAn incumbent player, when presented with a new innovation, attempts to incorporate that innovation as a feature within their existing user experience.An emergent player introduces that innovation as an entirely new medium, giving the innovation room to achieve its full potential, as The Next Big Thing.
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Digital Documents
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Amstrad PCW8512 word processor, 1988 (Source: Wikipedia)
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The World Wide Web
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The first WWW page, 1991 (Source: W3C, The World Wide Web Consortium)
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Online Services
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Main Menu USA (AOL 2.5 for Windows), 2003 (Source: Mike Richardson)
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Search
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Social Networks
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BlueRodeo.com, June 7, 2000 (Source: Internet Archive)
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Myspace, June/04 (Wayback); launched in Aug. 2003
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Microblogging and Activity Streams
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Facebook, 2006 (Source:Mashable via Jon Loomer)
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The Next Big Thing?
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Interest Networks
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Twitter, 2014
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Primal, 2014
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Cognitive Services
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Google, 2013
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Wolfram Alpha, 2013
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Intelligent Virtual Assistants
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Primal, intelligent content assistant
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IFTTT Recipes (Source:Marcello Pedra)
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How To Recognize The Next Big Thing?New media invariably dominates old media, regardless of how hard the incumbents try to keep new media down.
The essence of The Next Big thing won’t be technological. Cloud, data, augmented, geo, semantic, mobile, distributed, implicit, programmable networks are statements of technological enablers, not human experiences.
Look at the activities and experiences of features that seem overburdened or excessively inconvenient.
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Further ReadingMedium: A Visual History of the Next Big Thinghttps://medium.com/@petersweeney/a-visual-history-of-the-next-big-thing-a40c5f30cde8
The next step for intelligent virtual assistants: It’s time to consolidatehttps://gigaom.com/2014/09/01/the-next-step-for-intelligent-virtual-assistants-its-time-to-consolidate/
2013: The Year 'the Stream' Crestedhttp://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/12/2013-the-year-the-stream-crested/282202/
Why Cognition-as-a-Service is the next operating system battlefieldhttp://gigaom.com/2013/12/07/why-cognition-as-a-service-is-the-next-operating-system-battlefield/
Sentient code: An inside look at Stephen Wolfram's utterly new, insanely ambitious computational paradigmhttp://venturebeat.com/2013/11/29/sentient-code-an-inside-look-at-stephen-wolframs-utterly-new-insanely-ambitious-computational-paradigm/
Antisocial Networking: How Small (and Valuable) Can Social Networks Get?http://blog.primal.com/antisocial-networking-how-small-and-valuable-can-social-networks-get/