2019 World Bank Water Week | Washington DC | 2 April 2019

A WATER SECUREWORLD FOR ALL

Reaching the World Bank’s Goal across a Bounded Planet

C.J. VörösmartyDirector, Environmental Sciences Initiative Advanced Science Research Center,

The City University of New York

THE GREAT ACCELERATION

2

Humans Are Increasingly

“Calling the Shots” at the

Planetary Scale in a New

Geological Epoch Called

the Anthropocene

POPULATION

(billions) REAL GDP

(trillions 2015 USD)

PRIMARY ENERGY

USE

(exojoules)

FOOD

PRODUCTION

(trillion tons)

COASTAL

POLLUTION

(million tonnes

nitrogen)

BIODIVERSITY

LOSS ON LAND

(percent)

A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY

3

Genetic

diversity

Functional diversity

(not yet quanitifed)

Prosphorus

Nitrogen

NOVEL

ENTITIES(not yet quanitifed)

CLIMATE

CHANGE

STRATOSPHERIC

OZONE DEPLETION

ATMOSPHERIC

AEROSOL LOADING(not yet quanitifed)

OCEAN

ACIDIFICATIONBIOGEOCHEMICAL

FLOWS

FRESHWATER

USE

LAND-SYSTEM

CHANGE

BIOSPHERE

INTEGRITY

A DUAL-SCALE LOGIC: APPLIED TO WATER

4

MACRO-SCALEGlobally mixed, but with

large-scale thresholds

LOCAL SCALEAccumulated syndromes,

no large-scale thresholds

THE PLOT THICKENS: ADDITIONAL HUMAN EFFECTS

5

ARTIFICIAL IMPOUNDMENTS

DEFORESTATION AND

INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE

FLOW DEPLETION

FLOW DEPLETION

(cropping)

FLOW DEPLETION

(forest loss)

FURTHER LOSS OF RESOURCE: WATER POLLUTION

6

FLOW DEPLETION

Accelerated Nutrient Use

and Mismanagement

Wastewaters Are

Generally Untreated

Receiving Waters Are

Highly Sensitive

KEEPING FRESH WATER WITHIN ITS BOUNDS MEANS

MANAGING SOME OTHER BOUNDARIESFre

shw

ate

r co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

km

3yr1

)

Total freshwater consumption

2,500

179

Industrial and municipal

1,257

Reservoir-related

2,600

Irrigated agriculture

3,628

Non-irrigated agriculture

-3,000

Deforestation

6,000

1,400

Water quality impairment

Planetary boundary

for water

▪ Climate Change

▪ Land Use

▪ Chemical

Pollution

▪ Biodiversity Loss

0

AND KEEPING ALL THE BOUNDARIES IN CHECK

MEANS SOUND MANAGEMENT OF THE BIOSPHERE

8

BUT

HOW?

TWO PATHWAYS TO HUMAN WATER SECURITY

9

Particularly relevant to

the SDG agenda, with

natural capital and

engineering

co-benefits jointly

valued.

7 August 2015 Issue

CLOSING REMARKS

10

• Transgressing the Planetary & Local Boundary for

Water Is Reversible

• Technology, Strategic Investments, & Governance

Instruments Will Be Necessary

• Cross-boundary Management Essential

• Preserving and Sensibly Managing the Biosphere Is an

Non-Negiotiable Component of the Strategy

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

11

environment.asrc.cuny.edu

water-future.org

Contact:

• Charles Vörösmarty <cvorosmarty@gmail.com>

• Anik Bhaduri <a.bhaduri@water-future.org>

REFERENCES

12

SLIDES 3 & 4. Image & References:

--Steffen, W. et al., 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet.

Science 13 Feb 2015: Vol. 347, Issue 6223, 1259855; DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855

--Rockström, J. et al., 2009. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461: 472-75.

SLIDES 3 & 4. References:

--Destouni, G. et al., 2013. Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy

production. Nature Climate Change 3: 213-17.

--Gordon, L.J., et al., 2005. Proc. Nat. Academy of Sciences USA 102: 7612-17.

--Shiklomanov, I.A., and J. C. Rodda, Eds., 2004. World Water Resources at the Beginning of the

Twenty-First Century, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge.

--Jaramillo, F. and G. Destouni, 2015. Comment on “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human

development on a changing planet”. Science 348: 1217-c.

--Hoekstra A. and M. Mekonnen, 2012. The water footprint of humanity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA

109: 3232-37.

REFERENCES (continued)

13

SLIDE 6: Global Map of Nitrogen Loading:

https://www.wur.nl/en/Research-Results/Chair-groups/Environmental-Sciences/Water-Systems-and-Global-

Change-Group/research/Water-pollution-assessments-1/Global-NEWS.htm

SLIDE 8. Image: Steffen et al. 2015, Science, Supplementary Materials.

SLIDE 9. References:

--Palmer, M. et al., 2015. Manage water in a green way. Science 349: 584-585.

--Muller, M., et al., 2015 Built infrastructure is essential. Science 349: 585-586.

SLIDE 10. Based on Data from Reference:

--Vörösmarty, C. J. et al., 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature

467: 555-561.

--Green, P.A. et al., 2015. Freshwater ecosystem services supporting humans: Pivoting from water

crisis to water solutions. Global Environmental Change 34: 108-118.