IntegratingClimateResilienceinFloodRiskManagement:

AWorkPlanfortheWashingtonSilverJacketsTeam

SnoqualmieRiverValley,Dec.2010

GuillaumeMauger,UWClimateImpactsGroup

HaleyKennard,UWSchoolofMarineandEnvironmentalAffairs

September29,2017

Acknowledgements:TheauthorswouldliketothankFEMAforgenerouslyfundingthisresearch.WewouldalsoliketoexpressourappreciationfortheWashingtonSilverJacketsTeamfortheirparticipationinthisresearch,andspecificallythosememberswhocontributedtheirtimeandexpertiseasintervieweesinthisproject.ThisprojectissupportedbyFEMAviaGrantNo.EMS-2016-CA-00009

Citation:Mauger,G.S.,Kennard,H.M.(2017).IntegratingClimateResilienceinFloodRiskManagement:AWorkplanfortheWashingtonSilverJackets.ReportpreparedforFEMA.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington,Seattle.doi:10.7915/CIG7MP4WZ

CoverPhotoSource:KingCountyviathePugetSoundInstitute:http://www.pugetsoundinstitute.org/tag/floodplains/

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1 TableofContents

1 Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... 5

2 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 7

3 Purpose of this Report ................................................................................................ 10

4 Background ................................................................................................................ 11 4.1 The Washington State Silver Jackets (WA SJ) ............................................................... 11 4.2 Causes of Flooding in Washington ................................................................................. 13 4.3 The Challenge: Balancing Protection with Risk Reduction ............................................ 14 4.4 Climate Change Impacts on Flooding ............................................................................. 14

4.4.1 Observed Trends .................................................................................................................................... 14 4.4.2 Projected Changes .................................................................................................................................. 16

5 Methods ..................................................................................................................... 19

6 Flood Risk Management Priorities ............................................................................. 21

7 Benefits and Opportunities ........................................................................................ 23

8 Existing Resources ..................................................................................................... 25 8.1 Policy and Guidance ....................................................................................................... 25

8.1.1 Policy ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 8.1.2 Guidance .................................................................................................................................................. 26

8.2 Science Resources ........................................................................................................... 29 8.2.1 Synthesis Reports ................................................................................................................................... 29 8.2.2 Future Sea Level, Climate, and Streamflow Datasets .................................................................... 29

9 Climate Resilient Flood Risk Management: Challenges ............................................. 33 9.1 Uncertainty in existing climate change projections and agency lack of knowledge on how to use them: ................................................................................................................................ 33 9.2 Gaps in existing science and data resources .................................................................... 34 9.3 Limits to local capacity ................................................................................................... 34 9.4 Actions and guidance sometimes contradict goals .......................................................... 35 9.5 Coordination .................................................................................................................. 36

10 Climate Resilient Flood Risk Management Goals: Framing the Work plan: .......... 38 10.1 Goal 1: The public understands and appreciates flood risk ............................................ 39 10.2 Goal 2: Local planners have the resources to incorporate climate change considerations into flood risk planning .............................................................................................................. 41 10.3 Goal 3: Agencies consistently use climate information in risk management, planning, and project design ............................................................................................................................. 43 10.4 Goal 4: Agency roles are clear and do not conflict; agencies coordinate and leverage

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resources accordingly ................................................................................................................. 45 10.5 Goal 5: Flood risk management increases floodplain resilience over time ...................... 47

11 Solutions: Washington Silver Jackets Work plan ................................................... 49 11.1 Work plan Item A: Develop improved estimates of future flood impacts ....................... 50

11.1.1 A.1. Precipitation Extremes ............................................................................................................ 50 11.1.2 A.2: Streamflow Extremes .............................................................................................................. 52 11.1.3 A.3. Coastal Flood Risk ................................................................................................................... 54 11.1.4 A.4: Future Flood Maps ................................................................................................................... 56

11.2 Work plan Item B: Develop resources for local planners ............................................... 58 11.2.1 B.1: Flood Risk “Bible” ................................................................................................................... 58 11.2.2 B.2: Centralized Resources ............................................................................................................. 58 11.2.3 B.3: Case Studies .............................................................................................................................. 59

11.3 Work plan Item C: Build capacity and coordination on resilient floodplain management 61

11.3.1 C.1: Seminar series ........................................................................................................................... 61 11.3.2 C.2: Local Interviews ....................................................................................................................... 61 11.3.3 C.3: Learning Network .................................................................................................................... 62

11.4 Work plan Item D: Improve public engagement ............................................................ 64 11.4.1 D.1: Outreach Materials .................................................................................................................. 64 11.4.2 D.2: Coordinated Engagement ....................................................................................................... 65

11.5 Work plan Item E: Coordinate floodplain management goals and planning .................. 67 11.5.1 E.1: Goals Statement ........................................................................................................................ 67 11.5.2 E.2: Planning Checklist ................................................................................................................... 67

12 Priorities for Near-term Action .............................................................................. 70 12.1 Near Term Priority A1: Precipitation Extremes ............................................................ 72 12.2 Near Term Priority D1: Outreach Materials .................................................................. 74 12.3 Near Term Priority E2: Create a Planning Checklist ..................................................... 76

13 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 78

14 References .............................................................................................................. 79

15 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 84 15.1 Washington Silver Jackets Roster .................................................................................. 84 15.2 Workshop Attendee List ................................................................................................. 86 15.3 Interview Guide .............................................................................................................. 87 15.4 Analytical Codes List ...................................................................................................... 89

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2 ExecutiveSummary

ThepurposeofthisworkwastodevelopaworkplanforintegratingclimatechangeimpactsinfloodriskmanagementinWashingtonState.Climatechangeisprojectedtoexacerbateexistingchallengesassociatedwithflooding.Communitiesandagenciesneedtoaccountfortheimpactsofclimatechangetoensurethatpublicresourcesareusedefficientlyandthatlocalcommunitiesarepreparedtodealwithfuturechangesinfloodrisk.

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OuranalysiswasfocusedontheWashingtonStateSilverJackets(WASJ),aninter-agencygroupaimedatcoordinatingamongfloodriskmanagementagencies.WASJagencyrolesandexpertiserangefromtechnicaltoengagementtopolicyaspectsoffloodriskmanagement.BoththeexpertiseoftheWASJgroupandtheexplicitemphasisoncoordinationmeanthatitisuniquelypositionedtoprovideinsightintoagencypriorities,practices,andchallengesassociatedwithincorporatingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.

WeconductedinterviewswithWASJmembersinordertodocumentcurrentpractices,opportunities,andbarrierstotheuseandintegrationofclimatechangeinformation.Basedonthediscussionsweidentifiedasetofgoalsforclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagementandusedthesetodevelopaworkplanorientedaroundfivekeyrecommendations.Eachrecommendationhasanumberofsub-actionsdiscussedingreaterdetailinthereport.

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PrioritiesforNear-TermActionfortheWASJTeam:WASJmembersevaluatedtherecommendedactionsbasedontheirfeasibility,impactonexistingagency-definedfloodriskmanagementpriorities,andimpactonachievingclimateresilientfloodriskmanagement,andidentifiedthreeprioritiesfornear-termwork:

1. Improveestimatesofprecipitationextremes

2. Developcoordinatedoutreachmaterials

3. Createaplanningchecklistforaligningdisparateplanningprocesses

Twootheractionsemergedaspriorities:improvedfuturefloodmapsandthecultivationofalearningnetworkamongfloodriskagencies,localmanagers,andscientists.Althoughimportant,thesewerenotaddressedduetothelimitedstafftimeavailableforadditionalwork.

TheWASJteamisalreadytakingactiononthesepriorities,andtheintentisfortheworkplantoserveasaframeworkforprioritizingongoingcollaborationonclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement.

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3 PurposeofthisReport

Climatechangeisprojectedtoexacerbateexistingchallengesassociatedwithflooding.Floodmanagementdecisionsthataremadetodaywillhaveimplicationsforfloodriskextendingwellintothe21stcentury,ifnotbeyond.Thismeansthatcommunitiesandagenciesneedtoplanfortheimpactsofclimatechangeinordertoensurethatpublicresourcesareusedeffectively.

Theimplicationsofclimatechangeaffectawiderangeofinstitutions,decision-makers,andstakeholders.ThisreportisspecificallyfocusedontheWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteam(WASJ,https://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/State-Teams/Washington),aninter-agencygroupthatisintendedtofacilitatecollaborationonWashingtonstatefloodriskpriorities.Thestudyhasthreegoals:

1. DocumenthowandtowhatdegreeclimatechangescienceresourcesarebeingusedtodaybyWASJagencies,

2. Identifyexistingbarrierstotheintegrationofclimatescienceinfloodriskmanagement,and

3. CreateaworkplanfortheWASJteamtofurtherincorporateclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagementwithintheStateofWashington.

ResultsarebasedonaseriesofinterviewsanddiscussionsaimedatidentifyingopportunitiesforintegratingclimatechangeamongWASJagencies.Theresearchassessedbothscienceandnon-sciencefactorsthatcouldaffecttheintegrationofclimatechangeconsiderationsinfloodriskmanagement.TheintentisthatthisworkplancanserveasaninitialroadmapfortheWASJteam,foruseinidentifyingprioritiesforongoingcollaborationonclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement.

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4 Background

4.1 TheWashingtonStateSilverJackets(WASJ)

WASJisaninter-agencygroupconvenedbytheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)tofacilitatecollaborationonstatefloodriskpriorities.Formedin2010,thefollowingagenciesarecurrentlyinvolvedintheWASJgroup:USACE,FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA),theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration’s(NOAA)NationalWeatherService(NWS),theU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture’s(USDA)NaturalResourcesConservationService(NRCS),theU.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS),theWashingtonStateEmergencyManagementDivision(EMD),theWashingtonStateDepartmentofEcology(ECY),andtheWashingtonStateDepartmentofTransportation(arosterisincludedintheappendix).Collectively,thisgrouppossessesmulti-disciplinaryexpertiseonfloodriskmanagement,andplaysanimportantrole–bothindividuallyandasaninter-agencyteam–infloodriskmanagementinWashingtonState.

ThisreportfocusesontheWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteamasitsmembersareuniquelypositionedtoprovideinsightintoagencypriorities,practices,andchallengesassociatedwithincorporatingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.Collectively,thegrouphasexpertiserangingfromtechnicaltoengagementtopolicyaspectsoffloodriskmanagement,andplaysanimportantrole–bothindividuallyandasaninter-agencyteam–inmanagingfloodriskwithinWashingtonState(seeTable1formoreinformation).

Table1:Summaryofagencyfloodriskplanningandmanagementactivities

Agency PrimaryFloodRiskPlanningandManagementActivities

USACE • ConvenesSilverJacketsTeams• Constructionoffloodcontrolstructures(e.g.,levees,dams,floodwalls)• Ongoingmaintenanceoffloodcontrolstructures• Occasionalnon-structuralfloodriskmanagement(e.g.,buyouts)• Provisionoftechnicalassistancetocities,counties,communities• Immediatedisasterresponse• Conductsfloodriskplanning(GeneralInvestigations,SystemWide

ImprovementFramework)• Providesfundsforlocalfloodprotection projects

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FEMA • ManagestheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP)• Generates“FloodRiskProducts”includingmaps,reports,databasesto

informlocalfloodriskplanningandmanagement• Engagesinfloodriskoutreachwithlocalcommunities• Immediatedisasterresponseandrebuildingefforts• Fundsrebuildingandfloodmitigationefforts(structuralandnon-

structural)

USGS • Observationaldatacollection(e.g.,rivergauges,sedimentmonitoring)• Researchonfloodrisk

NWS • WeatherandFloodforecasts• Communicationofimmediate/short-termfloodriskthroughweather

predictionsandfloodwarnings• Monitorsriversandrainfalltosupportfloodwarnings

ECY • StatecoordinatingagencyforFEMA’sNFIP• Engageswithlocaldecision-makersandtrainsfloodplainmanagers• ReviewslocalfloodplainordinancesrequiredbyNFIP• Balancesfloodriskmanagementwithagencymissionofenvironmental

protection.• Providesgrantstolocalcommunitiesforprojectsthatintegrateflood

riskmanagementwithotherbenefits,includingenvironmentalprotection.

NRCS • Providestechnicalandfinancialassistancetoindividuallandowners(primarilytofarmers,ranchers)forfloodpreventionandmanagement

• DisasterresponsethroughEmergencyWatershedProtectionprogram

EMD • AdministersFEMA’sHazardMitigationGrantProgram(HMGP)• AdministersPre-disasterplanningthroughPre-DisasterMitigationGrant

program(PDM)• Immediatedisasterresponseandrebuildingefforts• Fundsdisaster-preparedness,response,andlong-termrecovery

WSDOT • Managestransportationinfrastructureforthestateincludingroadsthatareaffectedbyfloodingormayaffectfloodrisk

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4.2 CausesofFloodinginWashington

FloodinginWashingtoniscausedbyanumberofdifferentphenomena,withimportantdifferencesbetweentheWesternandEasternpartsofthestate.AtmosphericRivers(ARs)areacommoncauseoffloodingacrossthestate,andaretheprimarycauseoffloodinginwesternWashington.ThedistributionofrainfallduringAReventsisoftenrelativelylocalized,sothatonewatershedmayexperiencefloodingwhileothersdonot.WhereaswesternWashingtontendstoreceivemostoftheprecipitationduringARevents,theseeventscanalsocausefloodingineasternWashington,particularlywhenanARapproachestheregionfromamoresoutherlydirection.AlthoughAReventstendtobringwarmertemperaturesandrainonsnoweventsareoftencitedasamajorcauseofflooding,snowmeltrarelycontributesmorethan10%ofrunoffduringtheseevents(BrentBower,personalcommunication).IneasternWashington,thunderstormscanalsoresultinflooding,althoughtheseeventstendtoonlyaffectverylocalizedareas.

Thespring“freshet”–theincreaseinspringstreamflowsduetosnowmelt–canresultinflooding,particularlyincoldwatershedswhereasubstantialfractionofwinterprecipitationiscapturedassnow.Floodingduetosnowmelttendstopersistformuchlongerthanfloodingduringrainevents,risingandfallingovermanydaysasopposedtoseveralhoursasduringarainevent.FloodingassociatedwithsnowmeltismoreimportantforriversineasternWashington.InwesternWashington,riverflowsresultingfromsnowmeltrarelyexceedflowsresultingfromAtmosphericRiverevents.

Firesandotherchangesinforestcovercanaffectfloodriskbydecreasingtheamountofwaterthatisretainedandincreasingsedimentanddebristransportedduringstormevents.Althoughsuchchangeswouldhaveimportantimplicationsanywhereintheregion,itisamuchmorecommonproblemforeasternWashington.

Floodingcanalsooccurduetochangesinthepositionandshapeoftheriverchannel.Inthegeologically-activePacificNorthwest,riverchannelscanmigrate,changecourse,orevencreateentirelynewchannels(avulsions)insomelocations,drasticallyalteringfloodriskasaresult.Inaddition,riversintheregiontendtocarryhighamountsofsediment.Wherethissedimentisdepositedthecapacityoftheriverchanneltoaccommodatefloodsisdecreased,whichcausesfloodingtooccuratlowerflowrates.

Finally,coastalareascanalsoexperiencefloodingduetoacombinationofhightides,stormsurge,andwaves.Theseeventstendnottoco-occurwithriverflooding,andsocanbeconsideredindependentofthefloodingthatresultsfromhighriverflows.Highintensityprecipitationevents,incontrast,maysometimesco-occurwithstormsurge.

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4.3 TheChallenge:BalancingProtectionwithRiskReduction

InWashingtonState,damagesduetofloodingaremorecostlythananyothernaturalhazard(Ecology2017).Managementoffloodriskischallengingduetothefactthatpeopleandbusinesseshavehistoricallysettledinfloodplainsduetotheflatland,higherqualitysoils,andproximitytowater.Althoughengineeredfloodprotections(e.g.:levees,floodwalls)havegreatlyreducedfloodriskinmanyinstances,theseprotectionsalsooftenresultingreaterexposuretorisk.Forexample,byprotectingcertainflood-proneareasleveesincentivizedevelopmentinthepartsofthefloodplainthattheyprotect,therebyresultingingreaterdamageswhenleveesfailorareovertopped.Similarly,floodinsurancecanencouragedevelopmentinthefloodplainbydistributingtheburdenofdamagesamongallpolicy-holdersandthenation’staxpayers.Thisisfurthercomplicatedbythehighvalueoffloodplainareasformultiplesectorsandinterests--agriculture,habitat,recreation,development--andthestrongpersonaltiesthatmanylandholdershavetotheirproperties.Asaresult,manyregionsexperienceaviciouscycleofincreasedprotectionsfollowedbyincreaseddevelopment,whichinturndrivesincreasedprotections,andsoon.Thishaslongbeenrecognizedasacentralchallengeinfloodriskmanagement(e.g.,Galloway1994),andisanongoingchallengebothintheStateofWashingtonandbeyond.

4.4 ClimateChangeImpactsonFlooding

Climatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbateexistingfloodchallengesduetoincreasingtemperatures,decreasingsnowpack,higherintensityrainevents,andsealevelrise(Snoveretal.2013).InwesternWashington,thecombinationofheavierraineventsandahighersnowlinewillresultinhigherflowsduringrainevents.Coastalfloodplainsareexpectedtoseethegreatestincreasesinfloodriskduetothecombinedinfluencesofsealevelrise,heavyrains,andpeakriverflows.IneasternWashington,decreasedsnowpackcouldreducespringfloodingduetosnowmelt,butcouldalsocontributetohigherpeakriverflowsinwinterandincreasedwildfireriskinsummer,bothofwhichcouldresultinincreasedfloodrisk.VerylittleresearchhasbeendonetoquantifychangesinsedimentaccumulationinriversortoevaluatechangesinhighintensityraineventsineasternWashington.

Thefollowingtwosectionssummarizetheobservedandprojectedchangesinsealevel,climate,andhydrology,obtainedfromavarietyofdifferentstudiesandapproaches.TheseresultsarediscussedingreaterdetailbySnoveretal.(2013)andMaugeretal.(2015).

4.4.1 Observed Trends

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Animportantnoteaboutinterpretationofthesetrends:Trendsareaffectedbyavarietyoffactorsthatareunrelatedtoclimatechange,includinglandusechange,long-termclimatevariability,measurementbiases,andavarietyofotherfactors.Thetrendsreportedherearesimplytheobservedtrends,andarenotseparatedintotheproportionthatcanbeattributedtoclimatechangevs.otherfactors.

• SealevelisrisingatmostlocationsinornearPugetSound.AttheSeattletidegauge,oneofthelongest-runninggaugesinPugetSound,sealevelroseby+8.6inchesfrom1900to2008(+0.8in./decade,NRC2012).Althoughsealevelisrisingatmostlocations,recordsshowadeclineinsealevelforthenorthwestOlympicpeninsula,aregionexperiencinguplift.AttheNeahBaytidegauge,forexample,relativesealeveldroppedby−5.2inchesfrom1934to2008(−0.7in./decade,NRC2012).

• Airtemperaturesarerising.ThePacificNorthwestwarmedabout+1.3°Fbetween1895and2011,withstatistically-significant(95%confidence)warmingoccurringinallseasonsexceptforspring(Kunkeletal.2013).Thistrendisrobust:similar20thcenturytrendsareobtainedusingdifferentanalyticalapproaches(Mote2003).Allbutfiveoftheyearsfrom1980to2011werewarmerthanthe1901-1960average(Moteetal.2013).

• Nocleartrendinheavyrainfall.TrendsinheavyprecipitationeventsareambiguousforthePacificNorthwest.Moststudiesfindmodestincreasingtrends,butonlyafewarestatistically-significantandresultsdependonthedatesandmethodsoftheanalysis(Kunkeletal.2012,MadsenandFigdor2007,Massetal.2011,Rosenbergetal.2010).

• Springsnowpackisdeclining.Springsnowpackfluctuatessubstantiallyfromyear-to-year,butdeclinedoverallintheWashingtonCascadesfromthemid-20thcenturyto2006(Moteetal.2008,Stoelingaetal.2009).Thistrendisdueprimarilytoincreasingregionaltemperatureandreflectstheinfluenceofbothclimatevariabilityandclimatechange(Hamletetal.2005,Pierceetal.2008).Naturalvariabilitycandominateovershortertimescales,resulting(forexample)inanincreaseinspringsnowaccumulationinrecentdecades(Stoelingaetal.2009).

• Earlierpeakinstreamflow.Thespringpeakinstreamflowisoccurringearlierintheyearformanysnowmelt-influencedriversinthePacificNorthwest(observedovertheperiod1948-2002)asaresultofdecreasedsnowaccumulationandearlierspringmelt(Stewartetal.2005).

• Nocleartrendsinpeakstreamflow.OnlyasmallfractionofungaugedstreamflowsitesinWashingtonStatehaveastatisticallysignificant(95%confidenceorgreater)longterm

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trendinpeakflows.Similarly,thereisnostatisticallysignificantchangeinthefrequencyofpeakfloweventsoccurringacrossWashingtonState(Mastinetal.2016).

4.4.2 Projected Changes

Localandregional-scaleprojectionsofchangingfloodriskincludeestimatedincreasesinprecipitationintensity,risingseas,changesinhydrology,aswellasstudiesevaluatingthespecificimplicationsformanagement.

• CoastalareasinWashingtonwillexperiencesealevelrise,althoughsomeareasmaycontinuetoexperiencedecreasesduetotrendsinverticallandmovement.AccordingtoarecentreportbytheNationalResearchCouncil,sealevelisprojectedtoriseanadditional+24in.(range:+4to+56inches)inWashingtonby2100(relativeto2000,NRC2012).Locally,however,sealevelwillincreasebydifferentamountsindifferentplaces.AlthoughmostglobalprojectionswouldresultinsealevelriseforthenorthwestOlympicPeninsula,itisnotyetpossibletoconclusivelyruleoutacontinueddeclineinsealevelforthatregion.

• Continuedriseinannualaveragetemperature.Warmingisprojectedtocontinuethroughoutthe21stcentury(Figure5-1).Forthe2050s(2041-2070)relativeto1950-1999,temperatureisprojectedtorise+5.8°F(range:+3.1to+8.5°F,Moteetal.2013)forahighgreenhousegasscenario(RCP8.5,VanVuurenetal.2011).Muchhigherwarmingispossibleaftermid-century.Loweremissionsofgreenhousegaseswillresultinlesswarming.Theprojectedchangesarelargecomparedtovariability:Bymid-century,thePacificNorthwestislikelytoregularlyexperienceaverageannualtemperaturesthatexceedwhatwasobservedinthe20thcentury

• Winterprecipitationextremesareprojectedtoincrease.Heavyrainfallevents–so-called“AtmosphericRiver”events–areexpectedtobecomemoresevere.Globalmodelsprojectthatdayswiththetop1%(99thpercentile)indailywatervaportransport,theprincipaldriverofheavyraineventsinthePacificNorthwest,willintensifyby+22%(range:+5to+34%),onaverage,bythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999,forahighgreenhousegasscenario:RCP8.5,Warneretal.2015).Thesehighintensityeventsarealsoprojectedtooccurmorefrequently:occurringaboutsevendaysperyear(range:fourtoninedaysperyear)bythe2080sincomparisontotwodaysperyearhistorically.AnotherstudyevaluatingextremerainfallprojectionsfortheSea-Tacweatherstationreportedsimilarresults(Rosenbergetal.2010).

• Substantialdeclinesinsnowpack.Averagespringsnowpack(April1stSnowWater

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Equivalent,orSWE)inWashingtonisprojectedtodeclineby−56to−70%bythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999;basedonanaverageof10globalmodelprojectionsforalow(B1)toamedium(A1B)greenhousegasscenario,respectively;Elsneretal.2010,Nakicenovicetal.2000).

• Annualareaburnedisprojectedtoincrease.ComparedtothemedianannualareaburnedintheNorthwestduring1916-2006(0.5millionacres),onesetoffiremodelsprojectsanincreaseto0.8millionacresinthe2020s,1.1millionacresinthe2040s,and2millionacresinthe2080s(relativeto1970-1999,basedontwoglobalclimatemodelsandamedium(A1B)greenhousegasscenario,Littelletal.2010,Nakicenovicetal.2000).Anothersetofmodelsprojects+76%to+310%increasesinannualareaburnedfortheNorthwestfrom1971-2000to2070-2099underahigh(A2)greenhousegasscenario(Rogersetal.2011,Nakicenovicetal.2000).

• Earlierpeakinstreamflow.Thespringpeakinstreamflowisprojectedtooccurearlierinsnow-influencedwatersheds.Forinstance,peakstreamflowisprojectedtooccur4to9weeksearlierbythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1917-2006)infourPugetSoundwatersheds(Sultan,Cedar,Green,Tolt)andtheYakimabasin(basedonanaverageof10globalmodelprojectionsforalow(B1)toamedium(A1B)greenhousegasscenario,respectively;Elsneretal.2010,Nakicenovicetal.2000).

• Projectedchangesrangefrommodestdecreasestolargeincreasesinextremeriverflowsdependingonlocationandwatershedtype.Thehighestriverflowsaregenerallyexpectedtoincreaseinrain-dominantandinmixedrainandsnowwatersheds.Somesnowdominantwatershedswillseefloodincreases,whileothersexperiencedecreases.ProjectionsforspecificWashingtonlocationscanbefoundhere:http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/.

• Changesinflowregulationmaynotalwaysbesufficienttomitigateincreasesinfloodrisk.IntheSkagitRiver,forinstance,withcurrentfloodmanagementpractices,themagnitudeofthe100-yearpeakstreamfloweventisprojectedtoincreaseby+49%onaveragebythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999).Simulationsindicatethatevenwithchangesinwatermanagementdesignedtodecreasepeakflows,the100-yearfloodflowwillstillincreaseby+42%(only7%lessthanwithcurrentpractices).TheriskoffloodingremainshighbecausethedamsontheSkagitonlyaffectaportionofthewatershed–othermajoruncontrolledtributariescontributesubstantiallytodownstreamflooding(basedonanaverageoffiveglobalclimatemodelsandamoderate(A1B)greenhousegasscenario;Leeetal.2016).

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• Theextent,depth,anddurationoffloodingareexpectedtoincrease.IntheSkagitRiverfloodplain,theareafloodedduringa100-yeareventisprojectedtoincreaseby+74%onaveragebythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999,assumingallleveesremainintact),whenaccountingforthecombinedeffectsofsealevelriseandhigherpeakflows(Hammanetal.2016).Asimilarstudyfoundthatthe10-yeareventwouldflood+19%to+69%moreareainthelowerSnohomishRiverfloodplainbythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999;basedontheaverageof10globalclimatemodelsimulationsandamoderate(A1B)greenhousegasscenario;Maugeretal.2014).

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5 Methods

Dataforthisresearchwascollectedthroughaseriesofsemi-structuredkeyinformantinterviews(EdwardsandHolland2013)ofWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteammembers.Interviewslastedbetweenoneandthreehours,withthemajoritylastingbetween90-120minutes.Theresearchteamutilizedaninterviewguideinalloftheseinterviews(AppendixB),butallowedkeyinformantstoguideresponsesandadditionallinesofdiscussionbasedontherecognitionthatintervieweespossessdeepcontextualknowledgeonthesubjectoffloodriskmanagement(EdwardsandHolland2013,Tuleretal.2002).

IntervieweeswereselectedtoroughlyreflectthecompositionoftheSilverJacketsgroupintermsofagencyrepresentationandgeographicfocus(Table2).IntervieweeswereselectedinconsultationwithWASJmembers,withpreferencegiventothosewhoaremostengagedinSilverJacketsactivities.SeveralintervieweeswerealsoselectedfrombeyondtheWASJteam,inordertoensurethatdifferentperspectivesfromwithinkeyagencieswereadequatelyrepresented.Intotal,thirteeninterviewswereconductedbythetwo-personresearchteam.Ninewereconductedinperson,twoviavideo-conference,andtwooverthephoneduetothefactthatsomeintervieweesweretoofarawaytojustifythetravelexpenses.

Table2.NumberofinterviewsconductedforeachparticipatingSilverJacketsagency.Atthetimeoftheproject,WSDOTdidnothaveanystaffparticipatingintheWASJteam.

Agency NumberofInterviews

USArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE) 3

FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA) 2

NationalWeatherService(NWS) 2

USGeologicalSurvey(USGS) 1

WAEmergencyManagementDivision(EMD) 2

WADepartmentofEcology(ECY) 2

NaturalResourceConservationService(NRCS) 1

WADepartmentofTransportation(WSDOT) 0

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Interviewswererecorded,transcribed,thencodedintheirentiretyusingAtlas.tisoftware(http://atlasti.com).Atlas.tiisasocialscienceanalysisprogramwhichallowstheresearchertosystematicallyorganizeandcategorizelargeamountsofqualitativedatausing“codes”(Milesetal.2014,Saldaña2015).Codesaresimplecategoriesorlabelsfororganizingthestatementsmadebyinterviewees(Milesetal.2014).Thecodingapproachusedcanbedescribedas“topiccoding”(Saldaña2015),whichfocusesonidentifyingandcategorizingthecontentofthequalitativedata.Inthisprojectweused17distinctcodes(seeAppendixforfulllistofcodes)someofwhichwerepre-identifiedtocorrespondwithresearchquestionswhileothersemergedthroughtheinitialanalysis.Theinterviewswerethenfurtheranalyzedthrough“theoreticalmemoing”.Thisprocessallowstheresearchertoreflectanddeveloptheirconceptualideasaboutthedata(Milesetal.2014),whileprovidingadditionalcredibilityandtraceabilitybycreatingarecordoftheresearcher’sanalyticalprocess(Groenewald2014).

Inparallelwiththeinterviews,theresearchteamcontinuedtoengagewiththeWASJteaminordertofacilitatecontinuedinformationexchange.TheWashingtonSilverJacketscurrentlyhasanannualmeetinginDecemberaswellasmonthlycalls.Theresearchteamparticipatedinthesemeetingsandcalls,presentingonexistingclimatechangescienceandresourceswhilealsolearningaboutagencyconcerns,issues,andinterests.

Finally,researchershostedtheWASJgroupforafinalprojectworkshop.Attheworkshop,researcherspresentedadraftworkplan,basedonthebarriers,needs,andprioritiesidentifiedintheinterviewsandotherdiscussionswiththeWASJteam.Theworkshopwasdesignedtoprovideparticipantswithachancetoprovidefeedbackontheseinitialconclusions,whilealsoengagingthegroupinaprioritizationexercisetoidentifyspecificfocusareasfornear-termwork.Theworkshopalsoincludedtimeforparticipantstobeginscopingspecifictasksforthethreefocusareasthatrankedhighest:clarifyinggoals,assigningaprojectlead,identifyingfundingopportunities.

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6 FloodRiskManagementPriorities

Theinterviewsincludedanexplorationofcurrentprioritiesforfloodriskmanagement.Understandinghowparticipantsviewtheirprioritiesanddefinetheirownsuccesshelpedtheresearchteamensurethattheworkplanwasdesignedtoaddressagencyneeds.Althoughindividualagencieshavetheirownspecificpriorities,therewerethreegeneralthemesthatwerecommontomanyoftheresponses.

1.Protectionoflifeandproperty:

IntervieweesidentifiedtheprotectionofthelivesandpropertyofWashingtonresidentsasatoppriorityintheirfloodriskmanagementactivities:“Ournumberoneparamountgoalinfloodriskmanagement[…]istheprotectionoflifeandproperty.Lifebeingparamountforsurebutproperty[also].”(USACE2017).Akeyaspectofthispriorityisthecommunicationandminimizationofrisk.Manyagenciesaredirectlyinvolvedwiththecommunitiesandlocalcityorcountygovernment.Theyviewinformingthepublicabouttheirriskandappropriateactionstominimizeitasanimportantpieceofprotectinglifeandproperty:“ultimatelywhatwe’retryingtodoiswe’retryingtohelpthecommunitiesunderstandtheirriskandtakeactionontherisktominimizetheirexposure”(FEMA2017).

2.Environmentalconsiderations:

Second,manyintervieweespointedtoenvironmentalconcernsasapriorityformanagingfloodriskinWashingtonState.Someoftheseconcernswererelatedtosalmonandsalmonhabitat,partlyaresultofthe2013BiologicalOpinion(BiOp)requiringfloodplaindevelopmenttoaccountforsalmonrecovery.Oneintervieweecommented:“It’srecognizedthatfisherieshabitatrestorationhastobepartofthepackagealongwithfloodsafety”(ECY2017).However,someintervieweesaddressedtheissueofenvironmentalconcernsmorebroadly,referringtotherestorationofnaturalprocessesasafloodriskpriority:“We’retryingtomoveasmuchaswecantowardsasustainabilityforthenaturalprocesses,consistencyofthenaturalprocessapproachsowe’renotputtingthingsinthelandscapethatareclearlynotdesignedtobethere.”(USACE2017).Therecognitionthatother(environmental)prioritiesmustbeaccountedforinfloodriskmanagementintheregionshapesthewayintervieweesframetheirownpriorities.

3.Landuseplanningtoreduceexposureandrisk:

Carefulplanningandmanagementofcurrentandpotentialfutureusesofthefloodplainwasidentifiedasanadditionalpriority.Thispriorityisinmanywaysacombinationofthefirsttwointhatitaddressestheneedforcomprehensiveandmulti-facetedfloodplainplanningasawayof

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managingfloodrisk.Intervieweesrecognizethatfundamentally,developmentinthefloodplainwillfloodandthereforeexistingandfuturestructuresshouldbecarefullyconsidered:“we’realsolookingatmorepreventativemeasures,elevatinghousesthathavebeenbuiltonthefloodplain,lookingatwhatdevelopmentshouldgowhereinthefloodplain.”(ECY2017).Removingexistinginfrastructurefromthefloodplainorpreventingfuturedevelopmentisachallengingandhighlypoliticalissue,onethatagenciesrecognizeasimportantbutarecurrentlygrapplingwithhowtoeffectivelyrealize.Oneintervieweecommented:“Iwouldstillsay99percentor95percentofourmoneyisstilljustputtingthingsbackexactlythewaytheywere.Theymaygetsomeelevation,butthey’renotreallygettingoutofthefootprintofthefloodplainandthey’renotthinkingaboutthebiggerpictureofthings:shouldthecriticalstructureevenbeputbackinthatfloodplain.”(FEMA2017).

Thesethreeoverarchingprioritiesguidedthecreationoftheworkplanandinformedtheframingclimateresilientfloodriskmanagementgoalsandrecommendationsoftheproposedactionitems.Whileachievingtheseprioritieswouldbechallengingunderanycircumstances,intervieweesnotedthatclimatechangeaddsanadditionallayerofcomplexitytotheirwork.Incorporatingpreparationsforuncertainfutureconditions(bothintermsofclimatechangeandland-usechanges)intotheseguidingprioritiesisanongoingandincreasinglypressingneed.

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7 BenefitsandOpportunities

Whiletherearemanychallengestoincorporatingclimatechangeconsiderationsintofloodriskmanagement,intervieweesalsoidentifiedanumberofimportantbenefitstoincreasingtheresilienceofFRMtoachangingclimate.Manyofthesebenefitsrelatedirectlytotheprioritiesforfloodriskmanagementcitedintheprevioussection.Aprimarybenefitidentifiedwasreducingthelong-termeconomiccostsoffloodriskmanagement,particularlyaroundfloodinfrastructure(i.e.levees).Thesestructuralfloodriskmanagementelementsareexpensivetoplanandbuild,buttheycanalsobeexpensivetomaintain,especiallyiftheyarenotbuiltwithclimatechangeinmind.Oneintervieweenotedthat“structuresaregoingtobeunder-designedandmoneyisgoingtobeoverspentwithoutaneyeforclimatechange”(USACE2017),whichanotherintervieweecharacterizedas“awasteofpublicdollars”(NWS2017).Intervieweesemphasizedtheimportanceofincorporatingclimatechangeinordertoreducethelong-termcostsofsignificantprojects.Thisbenefitisseenasparticularlyimportantbecauselocalcommunities,asprojectsponsors,areoftenresponsibleforlong-termmaintenancecosts:“totheextentwecanmakethesethingsresilienttoclimatechange,right,thelessburdenwe’reputtingon[thelocalsponsor]inthefuture.[...]WestrivetobuildthingsthatareleastburdensomefromanO&M[Operations&Maintenance]perspectiveaswecan.”(USACE2017).

Intervieweesalsodiscussedclimateresilienceintermsofitspotentialtoinformland-useplanning.Climate-resilientFRMisseenasessentialtowell-planneddevelopment,successfulagriculture,andthelocationofcriticalinfrastructure.Understandinghowandwherefloodriskislikelytochangeisimportantforlocalplanners:“Thinkaboutthelocalofficialsandtheirfloodzoningordinances.Ifyouknowthatthisareaisgoingtobefloodingmorefrequently,it’sprobablynotaplacetheywanttoputalotmorehousesorsubdivisions.Knowingthat,Ithink,iscriticalforlocalplanning”(NWS2017).FRMisconnectedtoavarietyofplanningprocessesandtouchesawidevarietyofsectors,offices,andagenciesacrossmultiplescales.IncreasingtheresilienceofFRMtoachangingclimatewouldpositivelyaffecttheresilienceofthesevariousplanningprocesses,helpingensurethesafetyoflocalcommunitiesandimprovingtheirabilitytorespondtoachangingclimateandchangingfloodrisk.

Similarly,intervieweeshighlightedthatincorporatingclimatechangeintotheirFRMworkwouldimprovetheaccuracyoftheirmaps,models,predictions,andrecommendations.Moreaccuratemodelsandbetterinformationonfutureconditionswouldleadtobetterunderstandingof–andabilitytomanagefor–floodrisk.Becausethesemodels,maps,andrecommendationsdriveFRMactionatmultiplescales,itisparticularlyimportantthattheyaccuratelyreflectrisks:“theadvantage[ofincreasedclimateresilience]wouldbethatitwould

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bemoreaccurate.Ifsomethingischangingfromwhatwehavebeenexpectingorusedtoexpect,inordertogetthatright,ourinformationisgoingtohavetotakethatintoaccount[...]keepingourscienceupwithchanges.”(NWS2017).

AsdiscussedintheFRMprioritiessection,WASJagenciesprioritizereductionsinrisktocommunitiesandtheenvironment.Improvementsinthewaytheyincorporateclimateintotheirworkwillenhancetheirabilitytoaccuratelypredictandmanagerisk.Oneintervieweecommented:“IfocusonhumanvulnerabilityandIthinkthat[weneed]toplanforthekindsofdamageswe’regoingtoseeinthefutureratherthanfromthekindsofdamagewe’veseeninthepast”(EMD2017).AclearbenefitofincorporatingclimatechangeintoFRMisthatitimprovestheaccuracyofriskmanagement,whichhasdirectandsignificantimpactsonhumansafety.

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8 ExistingResources

8.1 PolicyandGuidance

8.1.1 Policy

Bothfederalandagencyguidanceareclearabouttheinclusionofclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.ExecutiveOrder13690,theFederalFloodRiskManagementStandard(FFRMS)specificallyrequiresagenciestoconsiderclimatechangeimpactsonfloodriskwhenfederaltaxdollarsareusedinthefloodplain.Undertheorder,agenciesaregiventhreeoptions:

1. Usethebestavailablescience,2. Add3feetoffreeboardforcriticalinfrastructureand2feetforeverythingelse.3. Designtothe500-year(0.2%annualchance)floodplain

AlthoughtheFFRMShassincebeenrescindedbythecurrentadministration,itisanexampleofahigh-levelpolicychangewiththepotentialtosignificantlyreduceexposuretofloodriskoverthelongterm.

Individualagencieshavealsoestablishedclimatechangepolicies.TheU.S.ArmyCorpshasdevelopedaclimatechangeadaptationplanwhichstatesthat“ItisthepolicyofUSACEtointegrateclimatechangeadaptationplanningandactionsintoourAgency’smissions,operations,programs,andprojects”(USACE2015).In2012,FEMAissuedapolicystatementthatemphasizedtheimportanceofincorporatingclimatechangeintotheirprogramsandoperationsandlistedsevenactionsthattheagencywouldtaketoplanforclimatechange(FEMA2012).

Existingagreementsandpoliciesalsohaveimplicationsforclimate-informedFRM.Forexample,aBiologicalOpinion(BiOP)hasbeenissuedforPugetSound,basedontheconclusionthatFEMA’sNationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP),asimplemented,wasatoddswithsalmonrecovery(NWFv.FEMA2004).AlthoughtheBiOpdoesnotcurrentlyconcernclimatechange,giventhelargeimpactofclimatechangeonfloodriskandtheEndangeredSpeciesAct(ESA)mandatetousethe“bestavailablescience”,itispossiblethatthiscouldbearequiredconsiderationinthefuture.Inaseparatedecision,the“CulvertCase”(USv.Washington2007),mandatedtheremovalofanestimated40,000culvertsandotherbarrierstofishpassage(WDFWFishBarrierRemovalBoard2016).ThecasehighlightsonewayinwhichFRMpractices–culvertdesignforfloodandstormwatercontrol–canhavesignificantnegativeconsequencesonenvironmentalhealth.Bothofthesedecisionswouldcorrectmaladaptivepractices,improve

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habitatconditions,andreducesalmonvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.

8.1.2 Guidance

Itcanbedifficultforevenawell-acquaintedusertoknowhowtointerpretclimatechangeprojections,selectappropriatescenarios,andevaluatedifferentapproachestoassessingimpacts.Numerousresourcesexisttosupportimpactsassessmentandadaptationefforts.

TheClimateResilienceToolkit(https://toolkit.climate.gov/)bringstogethertools,data,guidance,andalibraryofcasestudies,allcompiledintoonelocationtomakeiteasiertousetheseresources.Anotherrecentpublication,Snoveretal.(2013),decomposesthedecision-makingprocessintophasesthatrequireclimateinformationandexpertise,andotherphasesthatrelyonlocalknowledgeandcontext-specificinformationaboutthetimelineandacceptablelevelofrisk.Althoughthepaperisfocusedonassessingclimatechangeimpactsonbiologicalsystems,theideasapplymoregenerallytoanyefforttouseclimateprojectionsindecision-making.Forexample,Table3below(Table3inSnoveretal.2013)listscommonmisconceptionsaboutclimatechangeprojections,alongwiththerealityassociatedwitheach.

Severalagencieshavealsodevelopedguidance.USACEhasissuedseveralguidancedocuments,includingaseriesonincorporatingsealevelriseinplanningandanotheroninlandhydrology.Thesealevelriseguidanceincludesquantitativesealevelprojectionsthataretobeusedinplanning,andanonlinetoolthatallowsuserstoextractprojectionsfortheirsiteofinterest(EngineeringRegulation,ER#1100-2-8162).SealevelriseisnowarequiredelementofUSACEplanninganddesignstudies.Inlandhydrologyisnotcurrentlyrequiredanddoesnotincludespecificprojections,asisthecaseforsealevelrise.However,itdoesprovideguidanceonconductingaqualitativeassessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonstreamflow(EngineeringConstructionBulletin,ECB2016-25).Boththeinlandandsealevelriseguidanceincludestep-by-stepinstructionsandcasestudiesthatdescribehowtoincorporateclimatechangeindesignandplanning.

AlthoughFEMAdoesnotcurrentlyincorporatefuturefloodrisksinitsregulatorystandards,ithasinitiatedtheRiskMappingAssessmentandPlanning(RiskMAP)program,inwhichnon-regulatoryinformationonfuturefloodriskisprovidedtointerestedcommunities.FEMA’sTechnicalMappingAdvisoryCouncil(TMAC)hasalsoissuedasetofspecificrecommendationsforincorporatingclimatechangeintheNFIP(TMAC2015).Inaddition,severalindependentorganizationshavebegundevelopingguidancethatmaysupporttheintegrationofclimatechangeinFEMAprograms:

1. theCommunityRatingSystem(CRS)“GreenGuide”,developedbytheAssociationof

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StateFloodplainManagers(ASFPM,ASFPM2017),and

2. theNatureConservancy’s(TNC)“NaturallyResilientCommunities”website(TNC2017).

Althoughneitherwebsiteisspecificallyfocusedonclimatechange,bothincludeguidanceandrecommendationsthatarerelevanttoaddressingclimatechangeimpactsonflooding.

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Table3.Commonmisconceptionsabouttheutilityofclimatescenarios.Copied,withpermission,fromTable3inSnoveretal.2013

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8.2 ScienceResources

8.2.1 Synthesis Reports

International,national,andregionalreportssummarizethecurrentstateofclimatescienceandimpacts(Table4).Forexample,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereport(IPCC2013)includesthewell-knownclimatesciencesynthesisaswellasanentireseparatereportonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptation.TheNationalClimateAssessmentprovidesasimilarhigh-leveloverviewofclimatescienceandimpactsthatisfocusedontheU.S.(Melliloetal.2014).ItincludesachaptersummarizingtheimplicationsforthePacificNorthwest.Finally,thereareanincreasingnumberofreportsthataddressthescienceandimpactsatamorelocallevel.ThetwomostrecentofthesefocusonWashingtonState(Snoveretal.2014)andPugetSound(Maugeretal.2015).Thesereportsallincludehigh-leveloverviewstatementsaswellasdetaileddiscussionsoftheresearchandlinkstothekeystudiesintheprimaryliterature.

Table4.Synthesisreports.Thesespanfromglobaltolocalscales,andprovidebothsynthesisprojectionsandareviewofkeystudiesintheprimaryliterature.

Report Domain Citations NextUpdate

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

Global IPCC2013,

IPCC2014a,IPCC2014b

2021

NationalClimateAssessment National Melliloetal.2014,Moteetal.2014

2018

GlobalandRegionalSeaLevelRiseScenariosfortheUnitedStates

National Sweetetal.2017 Unknown

CIGStateofKnowledgeReports WAState,PugetSound

Snoveretal.2014,Maugeretal.2015

Unknown

8.2.2 Future Sea Level, Climate, and Streamflow Datasets

InthePacificNorthwest,climatechangeisexpectedtoimpactfloodingviachangesinsealevel,extremeprecipitation,peakriverflows,andsedimentdeposition.Maugeretal.(2015)synthesizedthestateofthescienceonthesetopicsasof2015.

Numerousclimatechangedatasetsexistthatcanbeusedtoquantifychangesinfloodrisk.All

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projectionsstemfromgreenhousegasscenariosandglobalclimatemodel(GCM)projectionsusedinrecentIPCCreports.Downscalingmethodsareoftencategorizedaseither“statistical”(meaningthatitisbasedonempiricalrelationshipsobtainedfromobservations)or“dynamical”(meaningthatthedownscalingisperformedusingaphysically-basedclimatemodel).Theseareproducedusingcoarse-scaleGCMprojectionsobtainedfromoneoftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjects(CMIP),eitherthepreviousCMIP3(Meehletal.2007)orthemorerecentCMIP5archive(Tayloretal.2012;seeMaugeretal.2015foradditionaldescriptions).Mostclimatedatasetsincludean“ensemble”ofmultipleclimatemodelprojections,inordertoprovideanestimateoftheuncertaintyinprojections.

Aselectionofcurrently-availablesealevelrise,downscaledclimate,andhydrologicprojectionsarelistedinTables5-7.Eachtablealsolistsongoingprojectsthatwillupdatethescienceoneachtopic.Therearethreeprincipalchallengestousingtheseprojections:

1. Mostclimatechangedatasetsrequiresomedegreeofadditionalpost-processingtouse.

2. Projectionsdifferamongdatasets,andthebestapproachmaynotbethesameforeachapplication.

3. Thescienceandprojectionsarecontinuallyevolving,meaningthatthebestavailabledatasettodaywilleventuallybesupersededbynewerprojections.

Inotherwords,thechallengewithclimatechangeprojectionsisnotsomuchtheavailabilityofdata,buttheuseandinterpretationofwhatalreadyexists.Guidancedocuments,suchasthoseoutlinedabove,providehelpfulcriteriaforselectingandapplyingclimatechangeprojections.Additionalworkisneededtominimizetheadditionaleffortneededtousetheseprojectionsandprovidebetterinformationontherelativemeritsandpitfallsofvariousapproaches.Theseareaddressedintheworkplanitemsbelow.

Finally,thesedatasetsareexclusivelyconcernedwiththedriversoffloodrisk.Veryfewstudieshavetakentheadditionalstepofquantifyingtheimplicationsforthedepthandareaofinundationasaresultofclimatechange.ExamplesthatdoexistcoververyspecificriverreacheswithinWashingtonState(Hammanetal.2016,Maugeretal.2014),anddifferencesinmethodologiesdonotallowforapples-to-applescomparisonsofrisk.Thisgapisalsoaddressedintheworkplan.

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Table5.Aselectionofdownscaledclimateprojections

GreenhouseGasScenario

ClimateModels

Down-scaling Resolution Citation

Low

Mod

erate

High

New

(CMIP5)

Old(C

MIP3)

Statistical

Dyna

mical

PacificNorthwestHydroclimateScenariosProject

ü ü 10 ü 6km Hamletetal.2013

NASA-NEXDownscaledClimateProjections

ü ü ü 33 ü 800m Thrasheretal.2012,2013

BiasCorrectedandSpatiallyDownscaledCMIP5(BCSD5)

ü ü 39 ü 6km Reclamation2014

MultivariateAdaptiveConstructedAnalogs(MACA)

ü ü 10 ü 4km AbatzoglouandBrown2012

LocalizedConstructedAnalogs(LOCA)

ü ü 32 ü 6km Pierceetal.2015

NorthAmericanRegionalClimateChangeAssessmentProgram(NARCCAP)

ü 4 ü 50km Mearnsetal.2017

NorthAmericanCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperiment(NA-CORDEX)

ü ü 7 ü 25-50km Bukovskyetal.2017

Ongoing:UWWeatherResearchandForecastModelProjections(UWWRF)

ü ü ü 2 2 ü 12km

Salathéetal.2010,LeadInvestigators:GuillaumeMauger,EricSalathé(UW)

Ongoing:RegionalClimatePredictiondotNet(RegCPDN)

ü ü 1 ü 25km

Moteetal.2016.LeadInvestigators:DavidRupp,PhilMote(OSU)

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Table6.Aselectionofhydrologicchangeprojections.HydrologicmodelsusedintheseprojectionsaretheVariableInfiltrationCapacity(VIC,Liangetal.1994)andthePrecipitationRunoffModelingSystem(PRMS,Markstrometal.2015).

Name Downscaling HydrologicModel

Citation

PacificNorthwestHydroclimateScenariosProject

Statistical VIC Hamletetal.2013

WesternU.S.HydroclimateScenariosProject

Statistical VIC Salathéetal.2013

IntegratedScenariosoftheFutureNorthwestEnvironment

Statistical VIC Moteetal.2014

RiverManagementJointOperatingCommitteeProjections,Part2(RMJOC-II)

Statistical,Dynamical

VIC,PRMS Leadinvestigator:BartNijssen,UW

Ongoing:StructureforUnifyingMultipleModelingApproaches(SUMMA)

Statistical,Dynamical

SUMMA Clarketal.2015a,2015b

Table7.Aselectionofsealevelriseprojections.

Title Citation

Sea-LevelRisefortheCoastsofCalifornia,Oregon,andWashington

NRC2012

Probabilistic21stand22ndcenturysea-levelprojectionsataglobalnetworkoftide-gaugesites

Koppetal.2014

GlobalandRegionalSeaLevelRisescenariosfortheUnitedStates

Sweetetal.2017

Ongoing:WACoastalResilienceProject(WCRP) LeadAuthor:IanMiller,WASeaGrant

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9 ClimateResilientFloodRiskManagement:Challenges

Anumberofchallengeswereidentifiedbyinterviewees.Theyfallintofivebroadcategories,eachofwhichisdiscussedbrieflyinthesectionsbelow.

9.1 Uncertaintyinexistingclimatechangeprojectionsandagencylackofknowledgeonhowtousethem:

Intervieweesexpressedthatuncertaintyinclimateprojectionsisanongoingbarriertotheintegrationofclimatescienceintofloodriskmanagement.Therearetwomainaspectstothischallenge.Thefirstisthatclimatepredictionsinherentlycontainadegreeofuncertainty,presentingrangesratherasingledefinitivenumber.Particularlyforprecipitationandriverinefloodpredictions,intervieweesfeltthattheserangesarebroadenoughtoseriouslycomplicatefloodriskplanning:“Thetemperaturewehavehighconfidencein,butprecipitation,whichisimportantforrainfall-runoffmodelsiskindofallovertheplace,differentmodels[give]differentresults.”(USGS2017).Anothercommented:“Iguessthedifficultythereistakingthesciencewhichrightnow[has]afairlylargerangeofprobabilitiesandconvertingthattoarangewherepeoplefeelcomfortable[…]havingmodelingwherewecanatleastgetsomekindofconfidencelevelandsayhere’stherangewecanworkwith[…tobeabletosay]youwillmostlikelyseeincreasedfloodsofthislevel.”(ECY2017).

Thesecondchallengeassociatedwithuncertaintyisthatagenciesdon’tknowhowtouseordon’tfeelcomfortableusingdatawithsuchrangesofuncertainty.Uncertaintymakesagencyplanningdifficultandcomplicatescommunicationtolocalplannersandcommunities:“Theotherrealdifficultyhereisuncertainty.We[…]arelargelypastthequestionaboutwhetherclimatechangeexistsornotbutwhattheeffectsarestillwe’rereallyworkingtofigureout.Sothatuncertaintyisalltooofteneasyforpeopletoturnthisoffwhentheyseeokaywedon’tknowwhattheriskreallyis[…]They’llsaywellI’lldealwiththatwhenIhavebetterinformation(ECY2017).

Therewillalwaysbearangeamongprojectionssinceitisnotpossibletopredictthefutureofhumanbehavior,technology,andgeopolitics;climatemodelsareimperfect,andtheclimateitselfisachaoticsystemwithrandomnaturalvariationssuper-imposedonlongtermchangesduetogreenhousegases.However,thereisarichliteratureondecision-makingwithuncertainty,andresourcesexisttoassistinmakingplansthatarerobusttoarangeoffutureoutcomes.Althoughadditionalresearchmayreduceuncertainties,theprimaryneedistobuild

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agencycapacitytodealwithandunderstandhowtouseclimateprojectionsinformationinspiteofuncertainty.

9.2 Gapsinexistingscienceanddataresources

Intervieweesidentifiedanumberofbroadscienceanddatadeficiencieswhichtheyfeltposedachallengetosuccessfulintegrationofclimatescienceinfloodriskmanagement.Gapsincludedfloodmodelingthatdoesnotadequatelyaccountforachangingclimate,alackoflocal-scaleclimateandfloodriskinformation,andlimitedinformationonthespecificmechanismsdrivingfloodriskindifferentlocations.

Anotherchallengewastheuseofhistoricalinformationonfloodriskasopposedtoprojectedfuturechanges.Intervieweesnotedthatthisisparticularlyproblematicwhenparticulardatasetsthatlackfuturechangesaremandatedbyagencies,essentiallyreinforcingtheomission.“It’skindofhardwhenclimatechangeisnotgoingtobestaticandsoinfiftyyearsit’sgoingtobedifferentthanitistoday.[…]ThefederalgovernmentingeneralandFEMAspecificallyisnotafastadaptingagency.Sogenerallywearetentofifteenyearsbehindthebigchangesthathappen[...]andifittakesustentofifteenyearstogetitimplementedintoourstudiesandouranalysisthat’skindoftoolate.”(FEMA2017).Anotherintervieweecommented:“Ithinkthebigquestionthatyou’llprobablygettoatsomepointisstationarityandallthefloodstatisticsarebasedonthisconceptofstationarity.Weknowthat’snotexactlytrue”(USGS2017).

Inadditiontomapsandresourcesthatdonotaccountforachangingclimate,agenciesareoftenattemptingtosupportlocalplanningwithmapsthataren’tscaledtothelocallevel.Oneintervieweestatedtheneedfor“cleartoolsforplanninglevelfolkstogoinandgookayinthislocationinthissite[…]howaremyconditionslikelygoingtochangeovermyplanninghorizon?”(USACE2017).Otherspointedtocountyorwatershed-levelclimatechangeandfloodriskmodellinginordertosupportlocalplanningprocesses.

9.3 Limitstolocalcapacity

Inadditiontoagencycapacity,intervieweesexpressedtheneedtobuildlocalcapacityonclimatechangeandfloodriskmanagement.Thislocalcapacitycanbethoughtofinthreegeneralstages:

1. localmanagersareawareofrisk,

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2. localmanagersareawareofresponseoptionsandresourcestoaddressrisk,and

3. localmanagershavethemotivation,knowledge,andresourcestoacttoreducerisk.

Thefirst,anawarenessoftherisksassociatedwithclimatechange-relatedflooding,isatleastpartlyachievedviaeffectiveagencycommunicationoftherisk.Oneintervieweestated:“Itwouldreallybeniceifthepublicwasmoreinformed[…]Theyhavethismisconceptionthatwellthey’veneverhadwaterinthisareabeforeandmaybethey’velivedtherefor20[years…]Sotheyhavethismisconceptionthatwe’renottellingthemthetruth,thatthere’snotreallyanyrisktothem”(NRCS2017).Intervieweesexpressedthataccuratelyandclearlycommunicatingrisksassociatedwithclimatechangecanbechallengingbothbecausetheinformationiscomplexandbecauseofotherfactors,includingpolitics.

Publicawarenessofoptionsformitigatingfloodriskisanadditionalchallenge.Currentresourcesincludefundingopportunitiesfromvariousagencies,assistanceandtraininginfloodriskmanagement,andguidanceoncoordinatingwithagenciesonfloodriskmanagementprojects.Forexample,attheCorps“Thereareparts[ofaproject]intherewherethelocalscancometousandgowe’dreallyliketoknowhowthisseawallmightbeaffectedbyclimatechangeinthenext50years.Canyoustudythatforus?We’dbelikeyeah.Surewecandothat.Butwe’dbehandlingitonsomeotherauthority,notcallitclimatechangestudies”(USACE2017).Intervieweesnotedthatlocalplannersandfloodriskmanagersaregenerallyunawareoftheseopportunitiestodirectagencyefforts.

Thethirdstepisreachedwhenlocalplannersandcommunitiesaremotivatedtotakeactiontoaddresstheirfloodrisk.Thisisfacilitatedbysupportandcommunicationfromagenciesbutisalsorelatedtoabeliefinandpoliticalinclinationtodealwithclimatechange(amorechallengingaspectfortheWASJtoaddress).Theideathatagenciescanprovideresources,outreach,andcommunicationinawaythatmotivateslocalcommunitiestoactionwascommonlyexpressed:“Weneedtodothingsinsuchwaysaspeopleknowhowtotakeaction,whatactiontotakeandwilltakeaction.”(NWS2017).Althoughlimitedlocalcapacityisanongoingchallengeinfloodriskmanagement,theWASJiswell-positionedtoaugmentthiscapacityviaimprovedengagement,tailoredclimateprojections,andbyallocatingstafftimetoaddresslocalconcernsaboutclimatechange.

9.4 Actionsandguidancesometimescontradictgoals

Intervieweesnotedthatcommonapproachestakenwithineachagencycouldsometimesbeinconflictwiththeirstatedgoalsofprotectinglife,property,andtheenvironment.Somefeltthat

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theiractionsdidnotcomprehensivelyoreffectivelyaddressfloodriskorcontributetoclimate-resilientfloodplainmanagementandcould,infact,beexacerbatingexistingandfuturefloodrisk.FEMA,forexample,oftenrebuildshousesinthesamelocationswheretheyweredamagedbyfloodsintheabsenceofanexistingplanatthecommunitylevel:“Iwouldstillsay99percentor95percentofourmoneyisstilljustputtingthingsbackexactlythewaytheywere.Theymaygetsomeelevation,butthey’renotreallygettingoutofthefootprintofthefloodplain”(FEMA2017).Thisrebuildingdoeslittlefortheoverallresilienceandsafetyofthefloodplain.Similarly,therewasageneralconsensusthattheArmyCorpstendstofundstructuralapproachestofloodriskmanagement(e.g.,levees)evenwherenon-structuralapproach(e.g.,buyouts)mightbethemoreflood-andclimate-resilientoption:“It’snotthatwecouldn’tbuttheeffortandcostinvolvedwithgettingtherealestate,purchasingthem,therequirementsatthetimeforplacingtheirhousesomewhereelseanditwasjustverycumbersome”(USACE2017).Ingeneral,culturalandinstitutionalissueswithineachagencycansometimesleadtoactionsthatarenotoptimallyeffectiveatreducingfloodrisk.

Anadditionalchallengeisthatguidanceanddatausedbyagenciesareroutinelyoutdatedanddonotaccountforclimatechangeorincreasesindevelopmentovertime,bothofwhichcanincreasefloodrisk.Oneintervieweenoted:“Ourcurves,ourguidance,ourhistoricaloperationsdonotapplytotheWhiteRiverrightnowandhaven’tforacoupleyears.Notonlyhasthechannelchanged,thegeometryhaschangedsothere’snotthecapacitydownstreambutalsothelandscape,theeconomiclandscapehaschangedinthevalleyaswell.Sowhatmayhavebeennuisancefloodingin1995orwhatevernowyouknowisafootofwaterin50industrialbuildings.”(USACE2017).Whereguidancedoesexist,SilverJacketsmembersaresometimesunawareofitordonotuseitregularlyintheirwork.NumerousintervieweesthroughouttheSilverJacketsTeamdiscussedthattheuseofoutdatedfloodplainmapsandmodellingbasedonhistoricaldataarenotprovidingaccurateinformation–thereforeunderminingstatedagencypriorities.

9.5 Coordination

WhiletheSilverJacketsisseenasanimportantnexusforinformationsharingandcollaboration,intervieweesidentifiedalackofcoordinationamongagenciesasachallengetocomprehensivelyincorporatingclimateconsiderationsintofloodriskmanagement.Intheinterviews,theWashingtonSJTeamwaswidelyseenashavingthepotentialtodomorewithmorecommunicationandbettercoordination.Oneintervieweecommentedthat“weweretryingtostillfigureoutwhattheprogramwasandhowitcouldbestbeutilized[...]butweweren’tdoingthecoordinationverywell.Soitwasalmostweweredoingitwithinabubble,

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whichisnotidealfortheSilverJackets.”(USACE2017).

InadditiontocoordinationinternallyamongtheSJTeam,intervieweessuggestedthatthischallengeextendstocoordinatingprocessesandcommunicationwiththelocalofficialsandthepublic:“iftherewasmoreconsensusacrossagenciesthatitwouldhelp[...]they[thepublic]askafewdifferentpeopleandiftheygettwotothreedifferentanswerssuddenlytheykindofshutdown.Theyfigurewellthisisjustcomplicatedandwedon’tknowyet.Iftherearethingsthatwereallydoknowthengettingeverybodyonthesamepage”(FEMA2017).Alackofcoordinationandalignment,particularlyregardingengagementefforts,leadstoconfusionandmixedmessages,andisahindrancetoclimate-resilientplanningandmanagement.

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10 ClimateResilientFloodRiskManagementGoals:FramingtheWorkplan:

Throughanalysisoftheinterviews,theresearchteamidentifiedfiveoverarchinggoalswhichtheworkplanactionitemsaddress.Thesegoalsalignwithexistingfloodriskmanagementpriorities,addressthechallengesidentifiedbytheinterviewees,andwereframedforthepurposeofidentifyingfeasiblenear-termactionsfortheWASJTeam.Thegoalsareasfollows:

1. Thepublicunderstandsandappreciatesfloodrisk

2. Localplannershavetheresourcestoincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintofloodriskplanning.

3. Agenciesconsistentlyuseclimateinformationinriskmanagement,planning,andprojectdesign.

4. Agencyrolesareclearanddonotconflict;agenciescoordinateandleverageresourcesaccordingly.

5. Floodriskmanagementincreasesfloodplainresilienceovertime

Goalsarediscussedindividuallyinmoredetailbelow.

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10.1 Goal1:Thepublicunderstandsandappreciatesfloodrisk

ExistingProblem:Thepublicasawholedoesnotunderstandand/orappreciatethefloodingassociatedrisksfromclimatechangefortwoprimaryreasons:

• Politicizationofclimatechange:portionsofthepublicdonotacceptclimatechangescienceasrealandsomefederalagencieshavebeentoldnottoaddressit/usetheterm

• Lackofappropriateresourcesandtoolsforcommunities:existingclimatechangeandfloodriskinformationisnotwrittenforapublicaudienceandisnotatascalethatisrelevanttothecommunity-level,wheremostagencyoutreachoccurs.

Description:Theintervieweeshighlightedthatalackofpublicawarenessoftheincreasedfloodriskassociatedwithclimatechangeisachallengetheyfaceinaddressingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.Intervieweesidentifiedtwodistinct,ifinterrelatedcomponentsofthisissuewhichshouldinformtheapproachinaddressingit.Thefirstisthatclimatechangeremainsapoliticalissueformanypeople,andthosethatquestionthesciencemaynotbemotivatedtoaddresstheassociatedimplicationsforfloodrisk:“Ifpeopledon’tbelieveitthenpeopledon’ttakeactiononit[…]It’sthecommunity;it’stheindividuallandowner.[…]Thereisacertainelementofshuttingdown.”(FEMA2017).Manyintervieweeshighlightedthepoliticalchallengeofevencommunicatingaboutclimatechange:“Infactwewererecentlytoldthatwe’renottousethetermclimatechangeanymore.We’resupposedtobeusingclimateresilience”(NRCS2017).Communicatingaboutclimatechangeisparticularlyfraughtintheseinstances,giventheneedformanySilverJacketsmemberstoremaincredibleinothercircumstances–forexample,whenissuingemergencyfloodwarnings.

Thesecondaspectofthischallengethatintervieweesnotedwasafailuretoprovidetheappropriatetoolsandresourcestoindividuallandownersandcommunitiesaboutchangesinfloodrisk.Thegeneralsentimentwasthatexistingresourcesaboutclimatechangeandfloodriskare(a)notwrittenforageneral/laymanaudience,and(b)notproducedataspatialscalethatisseenasapplicabletocommunity-scaleplanning.Intervieweesinvolvedindirectoutreachatthecommunitylevelalsostressedtheneedtoexpandandimprovetheiractivitiesandresourcesforthiswork,whichisoftenresource-constrained:“ifIhadtheresourcesevennowIwouldwanttomakeitapointtogetouttoeverycommunity[…]andatleastmeetwiththeirstaff,offertoattendacitycouncilmeetingandtalktothecitycouncilandsayhereisyourriskandherearesomepossibleremedies;werecommendyouincorporatethefollowingthings.I’d

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liketodothatnow.Don’thavetheinformation,don’thavetheresources.”(ECY2017).Thereisalsoanelementofthinkingabouttheframingandmessagingofthisinformation.Forexample,theNWShasconductedsocialscienceresearchtoidentifycommunicationapproachesthataremoreeffectiveatmotivatingaction,andanumberofintervieweeshighlightedtheneedforclimatechangeinformationtobecommunicatedviaasourcethatthecommunitytrusts.

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10.2 Goal2:Localplannershavetheresourcestoincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintofloodriskplanning

ExistingProblem:Localplannerslacktheinformationandagencysupporttoincorporateclimatechangeintofloodriskplanningandmanagementonthelocallevel.Becauseofthis,local-levelfloodriskplanningisoftennarrowlyfocusedonprotectionoflifeandproperty,andrarelyaccountsforthelong-termcostsandimpactsofclimatechange.

Description:Intervieweesexpressedthatlocalplannersareoftencentralinaddressingandplanningforfloodriskonthelocallevel.Inmanycaseshowever,localplannersdonothaveadequateandaccessibleinformation,agencysupport,orlocalcommunityinterestinincorporatingclimatechangeconsiderationsintotheirfloodriskplanningefforts.Oneintervieweesaid“Communityplannersaredoingsomuch.I’mjustinaweofallthethingstheydo.Theycanonlydosomuchatonetime.Theycan’tstartmakinguptheirownprograms.”(ECY2017).Whilethisproblemisexacerbatedbyagenerallackofresourcesforplanninginsmallcommunities,inmanycasesitisalsorelatedtoalackofstraightforwardandaccessibleinformationandagencysupporttoeffectivelyutilizethatinformation.Oneintervieweestated:“there’sdefinitely[…]asensethatwehaven’tbeenprovidingthetoolstocommunitiesthattheyneedtomakethesedecisions”(ECY2017).Intervieweesagreedthatclimatechangeeffectsonfloodriskarecomplicated–tomodel,tounderstand,andtouseeffectively–particularlyforalocalplannerwithnobackgroundinhydrologyorclimatescience.

Whilesomeofthischallengecanbeaddressedattheleveloftheplanners,intervieweesidentifiedanumberofmechanismsbywhichtheirownagenciesdonotadequatelysupporttheuseofclimatechangescienceinlocalfloodriskmanagement(beyondasimplelackofresources).USACE,forexample,wasseenasroutinelyprioritizingstructural(levees,dams,etc.)overnon-structuralapproaches(e.g.,acquisitions)toreducingfloodrisk.“Atonepoint,unlessthingshavechanged,wewereexpectedforfloodriskreductiontolookatastructuralalternativeandlookatanon-structuralalternativeandcomparethem.Generallyspeaking,thestructuralalternativeistypicallycheaper[...]Soyouknowbutifyoursystemissetupwhereitjustturnsoutthatyou’resetuptomoreoftengotoastructuralresponsethananon-structuralresponseandyougetreallygoodatenactingstructuralresponses”(USACE2017).Insomeinstances,structuraloptionscouldresultinhighercostsaswellasgreaterrisktolifeandproperty.Whetherthecauseisduetoassumptionsintheirbenefit-costanalysis,amore

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streamlinedadministrativeprocessforstructuralfloodprotections,orsomeotherreason–intervieweesagreedthattheremaybemoreofatendencytoadoptstructuralsolutionsevenwhenotheralternativeswouldmoreeffectivelyreducerisk.

Similarly,FEMAintervieweeshighlightedtheroletheirmapsplayinconstrainingcomprehensivefloodriskplanning.Specifically,thebinaryapproachtodefiningwhatisinsidevs.outsidethefloodplainmeansthatonlythosecommunities/individualswithinaFEMA-definedfloodplainengageinplanningactivities.“Rightnowwedoaonepercentchancefloodandwecreatethemapbasedoffofthat;that’swhatyouhavetobuildto;that’swhattheirinsuranceisbasedonandIthinkitwouldbebettertohaveakindofagraduatedriskintheunderstandingofthefullrangeoffrequenciesandsothepolicieswillbereflectiveof[that]”(FEMA2017).

Intervieweesalsohighlightedthatmuchofthecurrentfloodriskplanningoccursatthe(limited)projectscaleandthatawatershedorreach-scaleperspectiveisoftenneeded.Onemainareawhereamoreholisticperspectivecouldhelpisindevelopmentinthefloodplain.Thereiswideagreementthatbothpresentandfuturefloodplaindevelopmentshouldbeevaluatedclosely.“Reallylookingatcommunitiesandlookingatthelargerfloodriskandlookingaheadofit,notjustlookingatthedevelopmentpermitinsomeofthemrightnow,butaskingwhereshoulddevelopmentgorelatedtothefloodplain?Whatsortoffloodplain[…]approachesareneeded?[...]Wewouldverymuchliketoreinvigoratethefloodplainplanningprogramontheplanningsideandgetresourcesouttocountiesparticularlytodofloodplainplanning”(ECY2017).Thelackofthiskindofplanningnotonlyputspeopleandpropertyatrisk,butitisalsocostlyandfrustratingtofederalagenciesinvolvedindisasterreliefandrebuildingactivities.FEMAandEMDintervieweesreferredspecificallytotheneedforpre-existingandcomprehensivefloodresponseplans.

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10.3 Goal3:Agenciesconsistentlyuseclimateinformationinriskmanagement,planning,andprojectdesign

ExistingProblem:Thelackofclearguidancetoagenciesonhowtoincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintotheirworkleadstopiecemealincorporationor,morecommonly,noincorporationatall.Theproblemistwofoldinnature:

• Lackofknowledgeofandconfidenceinexistingclimateresourcesthatmightbeused

• Lackofclearinstitutionalprocesstofacilitateincorporationofclimatechangescienceintofloodriskplanning,management,andprojectdesign

Description:Intervieweesexpressedthattheydonotknowhowtouseexistingclimateresourcesintheirworkandthatthereisnoformalagencyprocessorguidancefordoingso.Thelackofknowledgeofandconfidenceinexistingclimatechangesciencewasdiscussedinanumberofways,butmostsuggestedtheneedforcapacitybuildingandpossiblysomeadditionalresearch.Forsome,theissuewasaroundbetterunderstandingthemethodsandmodelsusedtoformulateclimateprojections:“Iwanttoengagewiththosepeoplethataredeveloping[climate&floodriskprojections]andtalkthroughitsothatIreallyunderstanditandI’mnotjustcommunicatingsomebulletpointthatIread.”(NWS2017).Forothers,thebarriertousingclimateinformationwasthelargerangesofimpactsthatthemodelspredict:“havingmodelingwherewecanatleastgetsomekindofconfidencelevelandsayhere’stherangewecanworkwithwithinacertainconfidencelevelandbeingabletopresentthat”(ECY2017).Otherintervieweesfeltthattheydidnotknowhowto“asktherightquestions”andnavigatingtheexistingresourceswas“toomysterious.”

Ontheotherhand,evenwhenpractitionerswouldliketoincorporateclimateconsiderationsintotheirworkandhaveidentifiedusefulresources,theyareoftennotpermittedtoincorporateitintoplanning/design/managementworkbecausethereisnoexistinginstitutionalframeworkorprocessforusingthatinformation.Thisisawidespreadchallengethatmanyintervieweesidentified:

• “currentlyrightnow,noneofouragencypoliciesrequirethatweaccountforclimatechangeinthedesignofcertainfloodcontrolstructures”(NRCS2017)

• “[theframework]hasn’tbeeninterpretedtomakeaddressingclimatechangesomethingthathastobedone,amandatoryelementlikeaminimumfloodplainstandard.[…]

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Thereisnoequivalentforclimatechange”(ECY2017)

• “somesortoffairlyprescriptiveguidancethatmadeiteasyforustoimplementclimatescienceintoourplanningprocess.Ifit’snotinourplanningprocess,it’snotgoingtogetused”(USACE2017)

Intheabsenceofapolicy,apushtoincorporateclimateconsiderationsmustcomefromalocalsponsororpartner,oragencystaffwhoarelikelytobetoldthattheprojectbudgetwillnotcovertheadditionalcost:“Ithinkthat’sreallythecruxofit[…]whatI’mseeingnowwithoureffortstotryandaccountforclimatechangeinourdesignsandplanningistotheextentthatcostsmoretodonowtosaveussomeproblemsdowntheroad,I’mseeingareluctancefromthefundingfolkstoallowforthattohappen.”(USACE2017).

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10.4 Goal4:Agencyrolesareclearanddonotconflict;agenciescoordinateandleverageresourcesaccordingly

ExistingProblem:ThereisalackofcoordinationbetweenagenciesandtheSilverJacketshavenotyetrealizedtheirpotentialasanexusofcoordinatedaction.Thereisanincreasingneedtocoordinateandforagenciestoexaminetheirownmandatesandactionstoensurethattheyarenotimpedinglong-termfloodriskgoals.

Description:AfewintervieweesexpressedthatthereisalackofcoordinationbetweenagenciesandthatSilverJacketshasnotyetrealizeditspotentialasacoordinatingbody.Oneintervieweecommentedthatalackofagencyconsensuscancomplicatecommunicationwiththepublic“iftherewasmoreconsensusacrossagenciesthatwouldhelp[…]they[thepublic]askafewdifferentpeopleandiftheygettwotothreedifferentanswerssotheykindofshutdown.Theyfigurewellthisisjustcomplicatedandwedon’tknowyet.Ifthere’sthingsthatwereallydoknowthengettingeverybodyonthesamepage.”(FEMA2017).IntervieweesidentifiedtheSilverJacketsasapotentialnexusofcommunicationandcoordination,aswellasanaturalavenueforpartnerships.WhileintervieweeswereoverwhelminglypositiveabouttheSilverJacketsprogram,itismainlyseenasaresourceforinformationexchangeandsharingprojectupdates.TheWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteamisrelativelynewandstilldefiningitsrole:“Ithinkweweretryingtostillfigureoutwhattheprogramwasandhowitcouldbestbeutilizedandweweren’tdoingaverygoodjob.WewereactuallyfundedforsomeoftheseinteragencyprojectswheretheygaveusapotofmoneytodoastudywiththeSilverJackets.But[…]weweren’tdoingthecoordinationverywell.ItwasalmostlikeweweredoingitwithinabubblewithintheCorps,whichisnotidealfortheSilverJackets”(USACE2017).ThoseinvolvedinSilverJacketsarehighlypositiveaboutitasaneducationandinformationsharingresource,particularlyaroundclimatechangeissues,andfeelthatitcouldbedoingmore“Formebeing[…]aplanner,aregulatoryperson,thetechnicalperspective[ofSilverJackets]becausethereareanumberofclimatologiststhatattendthemeetings.That’sbeenaneducationforme.[...]InthefutureIthinktheycouldbeabighelpis[...to]helpustomovetowardsacommonvisionofhowtoapproachtheseproblems.Thatmightbehelpful.”(ECY2017).

Intervieweesexpressedsomeconcernthatcoordinationcanbechallengingattimesbecauseagencymandatesandprocessesmayactuallyunderminethelong-termfloodriskmanagementgoals.Forexample,intervieweesfromtheCorpsnotedthatultimatelycontinuingtobuildleveesmaynotbethebestlong-termsolutiontomanagingriskinthefloodplain.However,due

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toexistingprocessesandconstraints,largestructuralprojectsarethemostcommonapproachtofloodriskmanagement.“Asalwaysisthecaseyou’vegotthisconflictortensionbetweentryingtogivetheriverspacetobreathe,youknowandfolksthatwanttomaximizeuseofthelandwhetheritisfarmingordevelopment”(USACE2017).AnNRCSintervieweealsoexpressedthatsomeoftheiractivitiesinthefloodplainmaybecontrarytolong-termgoals,particularlyaroundclimate-relatedchangesinfloodrisk.Ensuringthatfloodriskmanagementactionsdonotconflictwithoverarchingpriorities(ofprotectionoflifeandpropertyandtheenvironment)orwiththeactionsofotheragencies,particularlywhenfacingachangingclimate,isanimportantcomponentofclimateresilientfloodriskmanagement.

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10.5 Goal5:Floodriskmanagementincreasesfloodplainresilienceovertime

ExistingProblem:Currentpracticesinfloodriskmanagementdonotincludeconsiderationofclimatechange.Furthermore,existingpracticescansometimesleadtoincreasedexposuretoriskoverthelongterm.Ultimately,climate-resilientfloodriskmanagementshouldresultinlowerlong-termcosts.

Description:Floodriskmanagementisgenerallyfocusedoncurrentasopposedtofuturerisk,andfloodprotectionsareoftenplannedasareactiontohighimpactevents.Anintervieweecommentedonthecurrentapproach:“weareworkingkindofinthiscircularpatternofconstructingfloodcontrolstructures[...]Ifweareconstructingthosewithoutrecognitionofclimatesciencewe’regoingtobeinacircularpatternofrepairorreconstruction”(USACE2017).Thispatternofrepairandreconstructionindicatesalackoflong-termvisionorresiliencefortheregion:“We’llhelppayfortheprotectionof[infrastructurefromflood].Andthenyou[...]setupasituationwherenowit’sincentivizing[development].You’venowsetupasituationwherethingscanthenbechangedonalandscapeandmakeitevenmoreimperativethatthingsdon’tgetwet.”(USACE2017).Allowingcontinueddevelopmentinthefloodplainwithoutacoordinatedlong-termvisionincentivizestheconstructionofinfrastructureinflood-proneareas.Inaddition,incorporatingadditionalfreeboardorbuildinghigherleveesmayprovidegreaterprotectionbutdoesnotnecessarilyincreaseresilience.Thischallengeisexacerbatedbythefactthat“resilience”offloodplainsisnotanagreedupongoaloreventerm:“Howdoyouactuallydefineresilienceinthatsense?[...]Itcouldbethatatsomepointwedecidethere’sapossiblepopulationofwhat’sgoingtohappenwithclimatechange.Dowedesignsothatiftheworstthingoccurswe’restillataminimumforlifesafetyorfordamage,casualtiesorsomething[else]?Anythingthat’slessthanthatweshoulddobetteron.”(USACE2017).

Thisgoalrequireslookingbeyondtheprocessesdiscussedinpreviousgoalstothedesiredoutcomeofachievingamoreclimateresilientstate.ExistingfloodriskmanagementsystemsinWashingtonStatearecomplicatedandmulti-layered.Aswithanycomplexsystem,thereistheriskthatcapacitydevotedtoprocessmaylimitthecapacityavailabletoachievedesiredoutcomes.Thisgoalwasincludedtoensurethatsuccessismeasuredintermsofoutcomesaswellasprocess:“Ithinkit’dbeverydifficulttoreactorproactivelymakeadjustmentsorinfluencepeople’sdesiresbasedonsomethingthatmayhappen40yearsfromnow.Ithinkthat’sreallythecruxofitintermsofwhatI’mseeingnowwithoureffortstotryandaccountforclimatechangeinourdesignsandplanning:theextentthatwhileitcostsmoretodonow[it

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will]saveussomeproblemsdowntheroad”(USACE2017).

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11 Solutions:WashingtonSilverJacketsWorkplan

Thefollowingrecommendedactionsarebasedonthegoalsandchallengesdiscussedabove,aswellastheknowledgeoftheresearchteamandtheirestimatesastofeasibility.Theresearchteamhasattemptedtoprovideconcrete,descriptive,andactionableworkplanitemsthataregroundedintheneedsandprioritiesdiscussedintheinterviews.TheactionspresentedbelowaretobereviewedandprioritizedbytheSilverJacketsteammembersattheWorkshoponJune1.Theyareinnoparticularordernowandwillbere-ordered,updated,andaddedtoaftertheWorkshoptoreflecttheprioritiesidentifiedatthatevent.Broadly,theworkplanrecommendationsareasfollows:

A. Developimprovedestimatesoffuturefloodimpacts

B. Developresourcesforlocalplanners

C. Buildcapacityandcoordinationonresilientfloodplainmanagement

D. Improvepublicengagement

Coordinatefloodplainmanagementgoalsandplanning

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11.1 WorkplanItemA:Developimprovedestimatesoffuturefloodimpacts

• GoalsAddressed:(1)Publicunderstanding,(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices

• Rationale:Estimatingfuturefloodimpactswillallowagenciesandcommunitiestobetterunderstand,planfor,andmanagetheirrisk.Currentinformationdoesnotadequatelyportrayrisk

• Intervieweeperspectives:

o “Soherearetheareasatriskandbeingabletolayitoutforcommunitiessayinghere’stherisk,here’sthedollaramountyou’retalkingabout,here’sthepublicinfrastructure,thecity’sinfrastructureatrisk;here’syourrisk.Sotoreducethathere’ssomethingswesuggestandthenwemoveintothat.”(ECY2017)

o “Ifsomethingischangingfromwhatwehavebeenexpectingorusedtoexpectinordertogetthatrightourinformationisgoingtohavetotakethatintoaccountandportraythataswell”(NWS2017)

11.1.1 A.1. Precipitation Extremes

HeavyprecipitationeventsareakeydriveroffloodriskacrossWashingtonState.Althoughmuchisknownaboutthekeydriversofprecipitationextremes,additionalworkisneededto(1)bettercharacterizecurrentextremestatisticsandtheirspatialdistribution,and(2)improveestimatesoffutureprecipitationextremesandtheirimpactsacrossthestate.SpecifictasksrangefromupdatingtheNOAAAtlastooptimizingregionalclimatemodelsimulationsoffutureprecipitationevents.

Examples:

• UpdatingtheNOAAAtlas.TheNOAAAtlas14“Precipitation-FrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates”servesasthestandardforengineeringdesignandplanningforprecipitationextremes.Thecurrentanalysisisbothoutofdateandpremisedontheassumptionthatthestatisticsofprecipitationarestationary.Thistaskcouldincludepreliminaryworkintendedtoeithercomplementand/ormotivatefutureupdatestotheAtlas,orcouldinvolvecoordinatingstatesamongtheNWregiontoprovidefundingforNOAA’supdateoftheatlas.

• DoPMFestimateschangewithclimate?Resamplethehistoricalrecordtoestimateprobablemaximumflood(PMF),orotherdesignstorms,andevaluatehowthesechangeasafunctionoftemperatureandprecipitation.Usethesensitivitiesto

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estimatepossiblefuturechanges.Arehistoricaldesignstormssufficientlyconservative?Thiscouldbecoupledwithananalysisofregionalclimatemodelprojectionstoevaluatethepotentialforchangesinthefuture.

• Whatarethelarge-scaledriversofAtmosphericRiver(AR)events?ThegeneralconditionsthatdetermineAReventsareknown:theserequirehighvaporconvergencedrivenbyalargesoutherlyswingofthejetstream.Incontrast,thespecificconditionsthataffectthespatialdistributionprecipitationwithintheregionarenotwellknown.Thisworkwouldseektoidentifylarge-scaleconditionsthatarelinkedwithhigh-intensityprecipitationinspecificpartsofthestate(e.g.,EasternCascades,PugetSoundlowlands,PalouseHills).ThisworkwouldleverageexistingworkbytheClimateImpactsGrouptoidentifydiagnosticsthatcanbedevelopedfromglobalmodelprojectionsandusedtoestimatechangesinprecipitationonsub-regionalscales.

• Validationandintercomparisonofexistingclimatechangedatasets.Numerousdownscaledclimateprojectiondatasetsarenowavailable,butverylittleinformationexistsabouttherelativemeritsofeach.Forexample,mostexistingprojectionsarederivedfromstatisticaldownscaling,yetseveralrecentstudieshaveshownthataphysically-basedapproach–dynamicaldownscaling–isneededtocapturetheeffectsofclimatechangeonextremeprecipitation(e.g.,Salathéetal.2014).Thisprojectwouldcompareaselectionofexistingdatasetstoobservationsforaselectionofflood-relevantmetrics.Thiswouldprovideinformationontheperformanceofeachapproachasafunctionofmetricandlocation.

• Updatedhistoricalsimulationsofprecipitation.Observationally-basedhistoricaldatasetsareusedtodrivehydrologicmodelsinordertoreproducepastfloodevents.Currentdatasetsarelimitedintheircharacterizationofhistoricalweatherevents:resultsarelimitedtoa6-hourlyordailytimeresolution;existingrecordsendin2010or2013;andmanyexhibitareaswhereobservationsarelacking,particularlyinhighelevationareaswheresnowaccumulationisimportant.Newhistoricalsimulations,usingaregionalclimatemodel,couldbedevelopedinordertoprovideabetterbaselineforestimatinghistoricalfloodrisks.Inadditiontosimulationsoftherecentpast(1950-2017,1979-2017),long-termcontrolsimulationscouldbeusedtobettercharacterizeveryrareextremes(e.g.,the500-yearevent).

• Morefutureprecipitationsimulations.Futureprecipitationisbestassessedusingregionalclimatemodelsimulations(Salathéetal.2014).Existingsimulationsare

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limitedinnumber,makingitdifficulttoassessuncertaintyintheprojectionsandarriveatrobustestimatesoffutureconditions.Thisworkwouldaugmenttheexistingprojectionswithnewregionalclimatemodelsimulationsalongwiththepost-processingneededtodevelopdatasetsthatcaneasilybeincorporatedintofloodstudies.

• Optimizationofprecipitationsimulations.ExistingworkbytheUWRegionalModelingConsortium,underthedirectionofCliffMass,hasalreadyoptimizedthe12-kmimplementationofWRFforweatherforecasting.However,someprocessesthatareimportantforfloodrisk(e.g.,thunderstorms)maynotbeadequatelyrepresentedininthecurrentmodelconfiguration.Inaddition,thecurrentmodelisoptimizedforweatherforecasting,andmaynotbeadequatelyoptimizedforclimatesimulations.Thisresearchwouldtestdifferentmodelconfigurations,evaluatingthesensitivitytomodelresolution,parameterizations,andupdatestonewerversionsofthemodel.Existingperformanceevaluationsoftheforecastingsystemwouldbeleveragedbyfocusingonlyonmetricsforwhichstatisticsdonotalreadyexist.

11.1.2 A.2: Streamflow Extremes

Theprimaryclimatedriversofpeakstreamfloweventsaretheintensificationofraineventsandthereductioninsnowpackathigherelevations.Thesechangesareconfoundedbychangesinlandcoverandlandusethatarenotrelatedtoclimate--suchasloggingordevelopment.Pastandongoingworkhasquantifiedclimatechangeimpactsonpeakflowevents.Additionalworkisneededtobothassesstheimplicationsofexistingprojectionsandimproveonthosedatasets.Specifically,existingworkhasprimarilybeenappliedatrelativelycoarsespatialscales(5x7kmgridcells),andrelativelylittleworkhasbeendonetoaccountforthecombinedinfluencesofclimatechange,landuse,andreservoirmanagement.Inaddition,modelevaluationmetricshavegenerallyemphasizedthehistoricalaveragesinstreamflowasopposedtothesensitivityofstreamflowtowarming.Thistaskshouldincludeanyproject--modelingorempirical--thatimprovesthecharacterizationoffuturechangesinpeakstreamflow.

• Influenceoflanduseandlandcoverchangeonstreamflowandstreamtemperature.Linkobservedchangesinbothstreamflowandstreamtemperaturetochangesinlanduseovertime,acrossarangeofwatershedsandconditions.Theassessmentwouldincludebothfloodriskandsalmon-relevantmetrics(lowflows,streamtemperature)inordertohighlighttheinterplaybetweenimpactsonfloodriskandsalmonrecovery.Identifyareaswhereimprovedlandcoverorsoilsinformationisneeded.Ifdesired,thiscouldbecombinedwithamodeling

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assessmentoffuturefloodriskthatincorporatesprojectedchangesinlanduseundervariouspolicyordevelopmentscenarios.Althoughanalyseslikethesehavebeenperformedforsomecommunitiesandwatersheds,amajoradvantageofthisanalysiswouldbeastandardizedassessmentforallofWashingtonState.

• Whatisthemaximumrunoffratio?Relateprecipitationandpeakflowmeasurementstoidentifyanupperlimittothepeakflowsexpectedforagivenprecipitationtotal.Usethisasaconstraintonhydrologicmodelprojectionsbycomparingwhatwouldbeobtainedfromprecipitationchangesalone.SimilarworkisinprogressatUSGSbyChrisKonradandMikeDettinger.Thisprojectwouldexpandontheirwork.

• Bettercalibrationmetricsforhydrologicmodeling.Hydrologicmodelcalibrationtypicallyemphasizesstaticmeasuresofstreamflowsuchasthelong-termaveragemonthlyandannualflows.Inanon-stationaryclimate,thisdoesnotguaranteethatsimulationswillbehaveaccuratelyinfuturesimulations.Thistaskwouldidentifyandtestnewmetricsthataimtoensurethatthesensitivityofhydrologicmodelsimulationsiswellcalibrated.

• Small-streammonitoring.Floodriskassessments,alongwithmajorfloodprotections,areoftenlimitedtolargermainstemsites.Yetfloodsremainanissueonmanysmallertributaries.Alackofmeasurementscanoftenhinderfloodriskassessmentsandinfrastructuredesigndecisions.Thiseffortwouldidentifyasubsetofsmallstreamsformonitoring,selectedbasedonexposuretofloodingandtocoverarangeofconditions.

• HistoricalandPaleohydrology:Bettercharacterizationofpastfloodrisk.Recentandpaleoevidenceofpastfloodextentscandrasticallyalterestimatesofpeakfloodevents.Thistaskwouldcompileexistinginformationfrombothhistoricalaccountsandgeologicevidence,highlightingareaswheretheserecordsleadtoadifferentestimateofflowextremesthanwouldbederivedfromgageobservationsalone.Iffeasible,additionalworkcouldbedonetosearchhistoricalrecordsorevaluatethegeologicevidenceoflargefloods.Inadditiontothecentralestimatesforspecificexceedancevalues,specialattentionwouldbegiventoquantifyingtheuncertaintyintheseestimates.

• Whichtrendsaresignificant?MarkMastin’srecentreport(Mastinetal.2017)providesanassessmentoftrendsinpeakflowsinWashingtonState.Thisworkcouldbeexpandedtoincludeothermetricsrelatedtofloodrisk(e.g.,precipitation

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extremes,stormsurge,windintensity,andsnowpack).Thesecouldbeintegratedintoanonlinetoolthatuserscanusetobrowsetrendsintheregion(e.g.,theClimateImpactsGrouprecentlyproducedasimilartoolforSeattleCityLight.

• Validationandintercomparisonsofexistinghydrologicchangedatasets.Inthepastdecade,manydatasetshavebecomeavailablethatquantifyfuturechangesinstreamflow.TheongoingStructureforModelingMultipleAlternativesproject(SUMMA)isaimedatmoreaccuratelyquantifyingtheuncertaintyinfutureclimatechangeprojections.ThisworkwouldcomplementtheSUMMAworkbyevaluatingexistinghydrologicprojections,incomparisonwithobservations,forasuiteoflocationsandpeakflowmetrics.Thiswouldshedlightontherelativemeritsofeachapproach,andhowtheperformancediffersasafunctionofmetricandlocation.

• Canexistingreservoirsmitigatechangingfloodrisk?Existingprojectionsofchangingstreamflow,withtheexceptionofonestudyontheSkagitRiver(Leeetal.2016),donotaccountfortheeffectsofreservoiroperations.Inwatershedswithmajorreservoirs,thiscouldmeanthatexistingprojectionsoverestimatethechangeinfloodrisk.Thistaskwouldprovidesurvey-levelinformationonexistingdamsandthepotentialformitigatingfuturefloodriskinWashingtonState.Thiswouldincludebothaninventoryofdamsandasetofsummaryproductsthatillustratethepotentialforflowmodificationateachlocation(e.g.,mapsshowingthepercentoftheupstreamcatchmentthatiscapturedbyreservoirsandthecapacityofeachdamrelativetoanticipatedpeakflowvolumes).Iffeasible,thiscouldbeaugmentedbyusingexistingstreamflowprojectionsandreservoirmodelstoestimatefuturechangesinregulatedflows.

11.1.3 A.3. Coastal Flood Risk

Substantialworkhasalreadybeendonetodevelopsealevelriseprojectionsandguidancethatclarifieshowthisinformationcanbeusedinplanninganddesign(e.g.,NRC2012,USACEEngineeringRegulation:ER#1100-2-8162).Ongoingworkisalreadyfundedandunderwaytoupdatesealevelriseprojectionsusingaprobabilisticframeworkanddevelopnewcommunity-scaleestimatesofverticallandmotion.However,currentprojectsarelimitedintheirassessmentofbothcurrentandfuturerisksduetostormsurgeandwaves.

• CoSMoS(CoastalStormMonitoringSystem).USGSiscurrentlyinitiatinganefforttodevelopanintegratedmodelthatiscapableofcapturinginteractionsamongsealevelchange,tides,stormsurge,andwaveswithriverflow,aswellastheassociated

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implicationsforcoastalfloodrisk.ThisfollowsotherCoSMoSeffortsthathavebeencompletedinotherpartsofthecountry.Initialdevelopmentofthemodelandsupportingdatasetsisalreadyunderway,includingpreliminarywaveforecastsandanevaluationofexistingwindproducts.Ultimately,themodelwillcoupleforecastingcapabilitieswithlong-termclimatesimulations.Inadditiontoprovidingdirectestimatesofcoastalfloodrisk,themodelcanprovideinformationonthepotentialforshorelinechangeduetowaveenergydissipationandotherprocesses.

• Observedwindsanalysis:trendsandextremes.Thistaskwouldundertakeasystematicassessmentofobservedwindextremes,quantifyingdifferencesamongextremequantiles,winddirections,andseasonality.Thesewouldbeevaluatedtoquantifycurrentconditionsaswellasthesignificanceanddirectionoftrends.Previouseffortshavequantifiedhistoricalextremestatistics;theproposedanalysiswouldexpandonpreviouseffortsbyassessingthepresenceorabsenceoftrends.

• Whatarethelarge-scaledriversofwindstorms?Theconditionsthatdrivehighwindeventsaregenerallywellknown.However,thespecificsofhowthesearelinkedtohigh-intensitywindsinspecificpartsofthestatearenotwelldefined(e.g.,outercoast,EasternCascades,PugetSoundlowlands).Thisprojectwouldidentifylinksbetweenlarge-scaleconditionsandwindeventsandusethesetoevaluatethepotentialforchangesinwindintensityinthefuture.

• Validationandintercomparisonofexistinghigh-resolutionwinddatasets.Althoughseveralhigh-resolutionwinddatasetsareavailableforuseinsurgeandwavemodeling,littleisknownabouthowtheseperformrelativetoobservations,inparticularforthepurposeofsurgeandwavemodelinginWashingtonState.ThiseffortwouldbuildoncurrenteffortsbyUSGStoevaluateexistingwindforecastsbyexpandingtheirvalidationeffortsandevaluatingregionalmodelsimulationsofhistoricalwinds(theiranalysisiscurrentlyfocusedonforecastproducts).Thiswouldprovideinformationontheperformanceofvariouswinddatasetsasafunctionofmetricandlocation.

• Updatedhistoricalsimulationsofwinds.Observationally-basedhistoricaldatasetsareusedtodrivesurgeandwavemodelstoestimatecoastalfloodrisk.Currentdatasetsarelimitedintheircharacterizationofhistoricalweatherevents:resultsarelimitedtoa6-hourlyordailytimeresolution;existingrecordsendin2010or2013;andmanyexhibitareaswhereobservationsarelacking,particularlyalongthecoastswherewindscanchangedramaticallyfromonelocationtothenext.Newhistorical

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simulations,usingaregionalclimatemodel,couldbedevelopedinordertoprovideabetterbaselineforestimatingpeakwindevents.Inadditiontosimulationsoftherecentpast(1950-2017,1979-2017),long-termcontrolsimulationscouldbeusedtobettercharacterizeveryrareextremes(e.g.,the500-yearevent).

• Morefuturewindsimulations.Globalmodelsaretoocoarsetoestimatefuturewinds,andnocurrentapproachallowsforstatisticaldownscalingofwinds.Existingsimulationsarelimitedinnumber,makingitdifficulttoassessuncertaintyintheprojectionsandarriveatrobustestimatesoffutureconditions.Thisworkwouldaugmenttheexistingprojectionswithnewregionalclimatemodelsimulations,alongwiththepost-processingneededtodevelopdatasetsthatcaneasilybeincorporatedintosurgeandwavemodeling.

• Optimizationofwindsimulations.ExistingworkbytheUWRegionalModelingConsortium,underthedirectionofCliffMass,hasalreadyoptimizedthe12-kmimplementationofWRFforweatherforecasting.However,windextremesmaynotbeadequatelyrepresentedgiventhecomplexcoastlineofWashingtonState.Inaddition,thecurrentmodelisoptimizedforweatherforecasting,andmaynotbeadequatelyoptimizedforclimatesimulations.Thisresearchwouldtestdifferentmodelconfigurations,evaluatingthesensitivitytomodelresolution,parameterizations,andupdatestonewerversionsofthemodel.Existingperformanceevaluationsoftheforecastingsystemwouldbeleveragedbyfocusingonlyonmetricsforwhichstatisticsdonotalreadyexist.

11.1.4 A.4: Future Flood Maps

Todate,moststudieshaveevaluatedfuturefloodriskintermsofchangesinpeakflowsinrivers,ortheextentofsealevelriseexpectedinthefuture.Yetfloodriskmanagementistypicallypremisedonanunderstandingofthecombinedinfluenceofpeakflowsandsealevelonthedepthandextentofflooding.Manyfloodplainshavebeenmappedforfloodinsurance,butthesestudieshaveemphasizedthe100-yearfloodandfewstudieshaveevaluatedtheeffectsofclimatechange.Inaddition,fewstudiesexistforsmallertributaries,especiallyinareaswithrelativelylittledevelopment.ThepurposeofthistaskistoassessfuturechangesinthedepthandextentoffloodingacrossWashingtonState.Thesecouldbeapplieddirectlytoplanningoradditionaleconomicmodelingcouldbeconductedtoestimatethecostoffutureflooding.

• Refinedtopographicfloodplainanalysis.Thisworkwouldrefineandimproveupon

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thetopographically-basedestimatesoffloodplainextentdevelopedbyKonrad(2014).Thesehavegreatpotentialforuseinresilientfloodplainmanagementsincetheyillustratethegeomorphicfloodplainasopposedtotheregulatoryfloodplain,whichmayberestrictedbyhumanmodificationstothelandscape.However,thecurrentdatasetrequiresadditionalrefinementtocorrectforinaccuraciesandidentifyarobustbest-estimateoffloodplainextent.Inaddition,thedatasetcouldbeaugmentedtoincludesmallertributaries,coastalfloodplains,andareasatriskofcoastalerosionandchannelmigration.

• Pilotstudiesleveragingexistingefforts.Thistaskwouldpilottheintegrationofclimateandhydrologicprojectionsinhydrodynamicmodelingstudies.Leveragingexistingfloodstudies(e.g.,RiskMAP,USACE,etc.),researcherswouldtailorexistingprojectionsforuseasinputstothehydrodynamicmodelingwiththegoalofobtainingmapsoffuturefloodriskwhilecreatinglittletonoadditionalworkforthehydrodynamicstudyleads.Resultsoftheseeffortswouldbecompiledintoasetofcasestudiesdetailinglessonslearnedandthepotentialforexpansiontofacilitateincorporationofclimatechangeinfuturestudies.

• Statewidehydrodynamicmodeling.Recentadvancesincomputingpowerandmodelingapproacheshavemadeitpossibletorunhydrodynamicsimulationsoverlargeareasatonce(e.g.,Sampsonetal.2015).Ongoingworkaimedatquantifyingclimatechangeimpactsonstreamflow,precipitationextremes,andsealevelrisecanbeusedasinputtofloodmodels,resultinginregionalmapsofchangingfloodrisk.Giventhescopeofthecurrentmodel,anydomainuptoandincludingthecoterminousU.S.ispossible.Smallerscalesmayallowforbetterhydrologicprojectionsandamorecompletecensusofleveesandotherflowrestrictions.Resultswouldservetwoprimarypurposes:(1)awarenessraisingabouttheseverityoffuturefloodrisks,and(2)asabasisforregionalplanningandprioritization.

• Economicimpactsofflooding.Usehydrodynamicmodelingresultstoestimatethefuturecostsofflooding.ThiscouldbeaccomplishedusingFEMA’sstatewideHAZUSmodel,orusinglocalimplementationsofHAZUSorHEC-FDA.Theeconomicmodelingcouldbefurtherexpandedtocapturetherippleeffectsthatextendbeyondthedirectdamagetoinfrastructure(e.g.,lostproductivity,transportationdelays)usingacomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)model.

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11.2 WorkplanItemB:Developresourcesforlocalplanners

• GoalsAddressed:(2)Localplanning,(4)Publicengagement

• Rationale:Developingusefulandappropriateresourcesforlocalplannerswillhelpensurethattheyhavethetoolstheyneedtobothunderstandandcommunicaterisktotheircommunities,butalsoeffectivelyplanwithinthefloodplain

• Intervieweeperspectives:

o “Communityplannersaredoingsomuch.I’mjustinaweofallthethingstheydo.Theycanonlydosomuchatonetime.Theycan’tstartmakinguptheirownprograms.Theyreallyneedguidanceandsomeonewiththeinformedopinionandamonetaryreasonwhytheyshouldbedoingthesethings”(ECY2017)

o “Weneedtodothingsinsuchwaysaspeopleknowhowtotakeaction,whatactiontotakeandwilltakeaction.”(NWS2017)

11.2.1 B.1: Flood Risk “Bible”

IndividualSilverJacketsagenciesalreadyhavesomeguidanceonintegratingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.Thisprojectwoulddevelopguidancethatwouldenableconsistentapplicationamonglocalsandacrossagencies.Designedtofunctionsimilarlytothefishpassage“bible”developedbyWDFW(Barnardetal.2013),thisguidancewouldbeintendedtosupportincorporationofclimatechangeinformationinprojectdesignandimplementation(planningguidanceisdescribedunderworkplanitemE.2).AlthoughtheguidancedocumentwouldnothavethesameauthorityasWDFWholdswithfishpassage,itwouldincludeinformationonassessingthesensitivitytoclimatechange,useandinterpretationofclimatechangeprojections,andapproachestomitigatingfuturerisks.Thedocumentwillbedesignedtobeconsistentwithexistingagencyguidance,notingareaswheretherequirementsdifferamongagencies.

11.2.2 B.2: Centralized Resources

Numerousresourcesexist--rangingfromdatasetstoguidancetofundingopportunities--foruseinpreparingfortheeffectsofclimatechange.Yetintervieweesindicatedthatagencystaffandlocalmanagersarefrequentlyunawareofexistingdata,guidance,andopportunitiesforresilientfloodplainmanagement(e.g.,existinghydrologicprojections,USACEguidanceoninlandhydrology,EMDfundingforHMPdevelopment,etc.),nordotheyalwaysknowhowbesttomakeuseofwhatisavailable.Thisprojectwouldcreateacentralizedresource,orsetof

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resources,forexistingdata,guidance,andfundingresources.Thiscouldbeawebsite,asetoffactsheetsorinfographics,orboth.Thenewresourcewouldbedesignedtobea“one-stop”destinationforexistingresources,combinedwithguidancetohelpusersnavigatetheoptionsandselecttheinformationthatbestappliestotheirparticularneeds.

Climatechangedatasetsonsealevelrise,streamflow,andprecipitationwouldbecompiledalongwithinformationabouthowtousethedata,howitcomparestootherdataresources,andwhatmethodswereusedtocreateit.Ideally,thisresourcewouldbesearchablebylocation,projecttype,etc.Ratherthanduplicatingexistingarchives,thesitewoulddirectuserstoexistingrepositoriescontainingoriginalsourcedata.Whenadditionalpost-processingisnecessary,productscouldbecreatedtominimizetheadditionalworkforusers.Finally,sincethescienceandprojectionsarecontinuallychanging,thesitewouldbedesignedtobescalablesothatnewprojectionscaneasilybeincorporated.

Similarly,thesitewouldcatalogexistingplanningprocessesandfundingresourcesthatarerelevanttofloodplainmanagement.Asabove,theemphasiswouldbeonexistingmaterialsandresources,butthesitewouldincludeinformationtohelpusersidentifytheguidanceandresourcesthatbestapplytotheirsituation.IfthecasestudiesprojectinB2ispursued,thesecouldbeaddedtothesite.

Thisprojectcouldbedesignedtoberelativelysimple(e.g.,augmentingtheSalishSeaWiki)ormorecomplex(e.g.,searchabledatabase,usertools,etc.).Thescopeofworkshouldincludeaplanforupdatingtheresourceasnecessary.

11.2.3 B.3: Case Studies

Thepurposeofthisworkistohighlightreal-worldexamplesofresilientfloodriskmanagementwiththegoalofillustratingwaysinwhichsimilarsuccessescouldbeachievedelsewhere.Casestudiesfocusedonsuccessfulfloodriskmanagementprovideapracticalcomplementtobetterinformationresources.AnexampleistheCRSGreenGuide,whichincludessuccessstoriesfromcommunitiesthathaveimplementedtheCRSprogram.AsacomplementtotheGreenGuide,whichprovidesaveryhigh-leveloverview,thistaskwouldbedesignedtoidentifyspecificactionsandapproachesthatfacilitateresilientfloodriskmanagementineachexample.Examplescouldrangefromsingleprojects(e.g.,theMt.Vernonfloodwall)towatershedplanningefforts(e.g.,thefloodelementsoftheYakimaIntegratedWaterPlan).Examplesneednotbeuniquelyfocusedonsuccesses,norwouldtheyneedtohaveincorporatedclimatechange.Instead,casestudieswouldbepickedtoillustrateelementsthatleadtogreaterresilienceoverallandhighlighttheprosandconsofvariousdecisions.Summarieswouldincludeinformationonthecontext(social,political,institutional,etc.)withinwhichtheprocessoccurred,dataonthefloodrisksfaced,theplanningprocess,obstaclesencounteredand

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overcome,fundingsources,theoutcomesandapproachesconsidered,andtheroleofdifferentagenciesincontributingtotheprocess.Lessonsdrawnfromthecasestudieswouldhighlightactionsthatcouldbetakenatthelocalaswellastheagencylevel.Materialscouldbedesignedtobemodularandincludebothhigh-levelanddetailedinformation,allowingforavarietyofaudiences.Thesecouldalsobeincorporatedinbothinternalandexternaltrainingefforts.

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11.3 WorkplanItemC:Buildcapacityandcoordinationonresilientfloodplainmanagement

• GoalsAddressed:(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices,(4)Publicengagement

• Rationale:Alloftheeffortsbelowinvolveconveningprofessionalsinterestedinresilientfloodplainmanagement(theSJTeam,scientists,andlocalfloodplainleaders,etc.),withtheultimateaimofcultivatinganetworkforsharedlearningandinformationexchange.Learningnetworkshavebeenshowntoincreasecapacitythroughinformationsharingandrelationshipbuilding.Theyhavebeenshowntoincreasecapacityofallinvolvedthroughleadershipcreation,informationsharing,andinnovation(Christieetal.2016).

• IntervieweePerspectives:

o “Iwanttoengagewiththosepeoplethataredevelopingthat[climatemodels]andtalkthroughitsothatIreallyunderstanditandI’mnotjustcommunicatingsomebulletpointthatIread.Thatatthispointisabarrier."(NWS2017)

o “Ithinkyouwouldn’twanttolimit[educationresources]toaspecificgroup.Ithinkthatyouwouldwanttotrytogettheinformationouttoasmanypeopleaspossible.”(NRCS2017)

11.3.1 C.1: Seminar series

Intervieweesnotedalackofcapacityfordealingwithclimatechangeinfloodplainmanagement.TheresearchteamiscurrentlypresentingbrieflyateachmonthlySilverJacketscalltobuildcapacityandawarenessonexistingresources.Thisprojectwouldcontinueandexpandonthosepresentationsasamechanismforsharinginformationinternallyandhearingfromotherspecialistsoutsideofthegroup(e.g.,JeffArnoldfromUSACEheadquarters,AnnBostromfromtheUWCommunicationsdepartment,PaulaHarrisfromWhatcomCounty).Whileoneobjectiveofthiseffortwouldbetoprovideinformationandanopportunitytoanswerspecificquestions,itisalsofocusedonrelationshipbuilding.Thenetworkingaspectcouldbeenhancedbyconveninganin-personspeakerseries,asopposedtowebinars,alongwithtimefornetworkingbeforeoraftereachtalk.Or,occasionaltalkscouldbecoupledwithexistingmeetingsconvenedbyWASJ,FloodplainsbyDesign,NORFMA,etc.Regardlessofformat,attendeescouldbeinvitedfrombeyondWASJtoincludeotheragenciesandlocalswhomaybenefitfromtheexchange.

11.3.2 C.2: Local Interviews

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ThecurrentprojectinvolvesinterviewingWASJagenciesabouttheneeds,challenges,andopportunitiesassociatedwithclimateresilientfloodplainmanagement.Manyintervieweecommentsconcernedtheneedsoflocals.Animportantcomplementtothecurrentinterviewswouldbetorepeatthesamediscussionswithlocalfloodplainmanagers.Thiswouldbothserveasawayto“groundtruth”thefindingsofthecurrentprojectwhilealsohighlightinggapsinthecurrentworkplan.

Inadditiontoanupdatedandmorecomprehensiveworkplan,resultscouldhighlightopportunitiesforalteringagencypoliciesandpracticestobettersupportresilientfloodplainmanagement.Sharedrecommendations,comingfromfloodplainmanagersacrossthestate,wouldlendmorestrengthandimpactthaniftheyweremadeindividually.Thisfeedbackcouldbesynthesizedintheformofletterstospecificagencies,presentationsonsuggestedchanges,orthecreationofspecifictrainingmodulesforagencystaff.Ingeneral,asynthesisoftheneedsofboththeWASJagenciesandlocalmanagerswouldhelpclarifywhichbarriersandopportunitiesshouldbethefocusofcontinuedeffortstoincreasetheresilienceofWashington’sfloodplains.

SubstantialeffortshavealreadybeenundertakenbyWASJandotherstoengagewithlocalfloodplainmanagers.Thisprojectwouldbeginbygatheringinformationaboutthoseeffortsandidentifyingwaystobuildonpreviousfindingswithoutburdeninglocalswithduplicativeprocesses.

11.3.3 C.3: Learning Network

TheSilverJacketsteamsinvolvecoordinationamongstateandfederalagenciesconcernedwithfloodriskmanagement.Thisdoesnotincludelocalfloodplainmanagersanddoesnotincludeotheragencieswhosepoliciesandpracticesaffectfloodplainmanagement(and,byextension,floodriskmanagement).Inparticular,giventhescopeoftheissuesimplicatedinaccountingforclimatechangeimpacts,itwouldbehelpfultoincreasecoordinationandinformationamonganetworkofagencyandlocalstaffinvolvedinresilientfloodplainmanagement.Thispurposeofthiseffortwouldbetoconveneanetworkamonginterestedfloodplainprofessionalsandcreateopportunitiesforsharedlearningandrelationshipbuilding.Ratherthancreatinganentirelynewnetwork,thiseffortwouldleverageexistinggroups,suchas:

• WASJ.TheSilverJacketsteamcouldbeexpandedtoincludenon-agencyfloodplainleaders.

• “FloodplainLeaders”group,convenedbyTheNatureConservancy(TNC)undertheFloodplainsbyDesignprogram.

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• TheCoastalHazardsResilienceNetwork(CHRN),convenedbytheWashingtondepartmentofEcologyandSeaGrant.

• NorthwestRegionalFloodplainManagementAssociation(NORFMA):Regionalnetworkoffloodplainmanagers.

• FloodplainsImplementationStrategyteam,convenedbythePugetSoundPartnership(PSP).

Activitiescouldincludenetworkingsessions,fieldvisits,shortcourses,webinars,orsimplyaquarterlyconferencecall.Inpersonactivitiescouldleverageexistingmeetingsandevents:theWASJannualmeeting,semi-annualFloodplainsbyDesignmeetings,NORFMA,etc.

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11.4 WorkplanItemD:Improvepublicengagement

• GoalsAddressed:(1)Publicunderstanding,(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices

• Rationale:Apublicthatisinformedandcaresabouttheirfloodriskwillcommunicatethattolocalplannersandelectedofficials.TheseactionsfocusonoutreachtotwospecificgroupswithwhomvariousSilverJacketsagenciesalreadyinteractinsomecapacity:cityandcountycouncils,andhomeowners/landowners/residentsinflood-proneareas.

• CityandCountycouncilswereidentifiedaskeytothedecision-makingprocessduetotheirroleinsettinglocalbudgetsandpriorities.Turnoverisalsohighamongthisgroup,meaningthatregularengagementisnecessarytomaintaininstitutionalknowledge.

• Thegeneralpublicultimatelyinformtheactionsoflocalgovernment.Theyarealsothemostpersonallyaffectedbyalackofclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagementinthattheysufferdirectlyfromflooddamagestotheirhomesandcommunities.Makingthisgroupawareofboththerisksandopportunitiestomitigatefuturefloodriskswillmotivateandempowerthemtoaddresstheirfloodriskonanindividualandcommunitylevel.

• IntervieweePerspectives:

o “getsomepublicinformationouttherebecausethereneedstobethepublicsupportinsteadofjustrampantpublicopposition.Let’ssaysomepublicsupport.Thecitycouncilsneedtohavesomefeelingthatthey’renotgoingtoreallyjustgetlostwhentheystartadoptinghigherregulatorystandards.”(ECY2017).

o “Wereallyarefocusingonexpandingouroutreachefforts.Sincetheyarestatewide,Idon’thavetheluxuryofjustgoingtoSeattlesuburbsandtalkingtofolkswhoalreadyknowhalfofit.IhavetohavematerialthatcanspeaktothembutcanalsobetransferrablewithmaybeanotherpresentationtothetownofWhitesburgorareallysmallcommunitythat’sjustattheveryearlystagesofevenunderstandingwhattheissueis.Therange,Ithink,isthechallenge.”(EMD2017)

11.4.1 D.1: Outreach Materials

Drawingonexistingscienceresources,createmapsandfiguresthatillustratefloodrisksandcostsforuseinengagingthepublicanddecisionmakers.Similarresourcesalreadyexist;these

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documentswouldbereviewedtoensurethattheyareaccurateandup-to-date,containguidanceonclimatechangewhererelevant,areeasilyavailablebothonlineandinphysicaloutreachandtrainingmaterials,andwritteninclearandaccessiblelanguage.Inaddition,thistaskwouldidentifyopportunitiestoaugmentexistingresources(e.g.,iftherearegapsintheinformationprovided)andconsolidatethemintoonesetofmaterials.Intervieweesindicatedthatcommunicatingthecostsoffuturefloodriskwilllikelyhaveastrongimpactonpublicunderstandingandengagementwithfloodrisk;apriorityinthisworkwillbetosynthesizeandinterpretexistinginformationontheeconomicconsequencesofflooding.Conversationswithlocalfloodplainleaderscouldprovideadditionalperspectivesonneedsandapproachesthatarelikelytobeeffective.

11.4.2 D.2: Coordinated Engagement

TheIdahoSilverJacketsTeam,consideredbymanyintervieweestobeagoodmodelforsuccessfulutilizationoftheSilverJacketsprogram,hasorganizedanumberofactivitiesaroundNationalFloodSafetyAwarenessWeek(seeNationalFloodSafetyAwarenessWeekActivitiesofIdahoSJTeam).Thiscomprehensiveawarenessandengagementcampaigntargetsadifferentkeygroupeachyear.Activitiesincludeagencyboothsatthestatecapitaltoanswerquestions,publicserviceannouncementsviasocialandtraditionalmedia,thecreationoftheIdahoFloods!guidebooktoraisefloodawareness,andworkshopswithcommunitygroups.ThisworkwouldbeginbygatheringlessonslearnedfromtheIdahoSJTeam.However,Idaho’sfloodcontextisdistinctfromWashington’sinthatfloodinginEasternandWesternWashingtontakesplaceatdifferenttimesoftheyearandislinkedtodistinctdrivers.Additionalworkcouldidentifywaystoaddressthisissueandeffectivelyengagebothgeographicaudiences.WASJintervieweesidentifiedcitycouncilsasanimportantaudience,bothduetotheirabilitytoadvancefloodriskmanagementgoalsandthehighturnoverinherentinthesepositions.Werecommendthatoutreachbetargetedatlocalcouncils.Suggestedactivitiesmightinclude:

• Identifyspecificcitycouncilsforfocusedengagement,rotatingeachyear.

• SJpresentationsonfloodriskmanagementandclimatechangeatcitycouncilmeetingsacrossthestate

• Regionalmeetingsforcitycouncilmembersandagencystafftodiscussclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement,answerquestions,andbetterunderstandneeds.

• Targetedemailswithinformationresourcesandopportunitiesforimmediateaction,identifiedbasedonexistingcontactsandrelationships

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• Mediaposts(socialandtraditional)highlightingandcelebratinggoodfloodriskmanagementactionsinlocalcommunities

• Selectatargetactionthatcitycouncilmemberscouldtake(e.g.,updatestoaspecificportionofanexistingplan,adoptinganewfloodmanagementordinance)andencourageallcitycouncilsstatewidetotakeactiononitduringtheFloodSafetyAwarenessWeekactivities

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11.5 WorkplanItemE:Coordinatefloodplainmanagementgoalsandplanning

• GoalsAddressed:(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices,(4)Publicengagement

• Rationale:Localmanagershavelimitedcapacitytoaddressfloodriskissueswhilealsocomplyingwithanarrayofplanningprocessesthatarerequiredbystateandfederalagencies(hazardmitigationplans,comprehensiveplans,shorelinemasterplans,salmonrecoveryplans,etc.).Thisiscomplicatedbythefactthatplanningeffortsarenotalwayscentralizedwithinasinglecityorcountydepartment.Duplicationandincompatibilityamongvariousplanningeffortsmayresultinineffectivefloodplainmanagementandmayalsolimitthecapacityforlocalstoaddressotherconsiderations,includingclimatechange.Thiscouldbealleviatedbydevelopingcollectively-definedgoalsfortheSilverJacketsagencies,byworkingtoalignthefloodriskelementsofvariousplanningprocesses,andbyprovidingguidancetocommunitiesforimprovedcoordinationandconsistencyamongfloodplainmanagementplansandactivities.

• IntervieweePerspectives:

o “Strengtheningpartnershipsandrelationshipswithagenciesthatareonthecuttingedge.Weshouldbeonthecuttingedge.[...]Wemighthaveapieceofthepuzzle,butnosingleagencyisgoingtoownthewholepuzzle.”(EMD2017)

o “Butifyoutrytocombine[FRM]acrosstheentirewatershedyoumightactuallygetbetteraccountingofwhoisactuallyresponsibleforspecificrisk.[…]Theeasiestismitigationplannersworkingwithcommunitydevelopmentplannersandidentifyingprojectsandpreventingdevelopmentoffloodplain”(EMD2017)

11.5.1 E.1: Goals Statement

SilverJacketsteamsareintendedto“facilitatecollaborativesolutionstostatefloodriskpriorities”(https://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/,accessedMay20,2017).ThepurposeofthistaskistodevelopaconcisedefinitionoftheWASJteam’sgoalsforfloodplainmanagement,whichcanbeusedtoprioritizefutureeffortsbythegroup.Givendifferencesamongagencyrolesandthepotentialforclimatechangetodrivechangesinbestpractices,awell-definedgoalsstatementwouldservetoclarifythegroup’saspirationsandsystematizedecisionsaboutfuturework.ThisdefinitionshouldbereferredbacktoandusedasacriterionfordeterminingwhatactionsandprojectstheWASJteamselectstoworkon.

11.5.2 E.2: Planning Checklist

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FloodplainmanagementisimplicatedinawiderangeofplanningprocesseswithinWashingtonState:Comprehensiveplans,ShorelineManagementplans,HazardMitigationPlans,SalmonRecoveryPlans,WatershedPlans,etc.Althoughtheseplansincludecommonelements,itisrarethattheyarecreatedconsistentlyorevencoordinatedamongthesamelocalstaffordepartments.Internalconsistencyandimprovedcoordinationamongplanningprocessescouldreducethestafftimerequiredfortheseprocesseswhilealsoensuringthatfloodplainsaremanagedusingaconsistentsetofgoalsandstrategies.

Thepurposeofthisprojectwouldbetoensurethatclimate-relatedplanningrequirementsareconsistentacrossagencyprogramsandprovidesupportforlocalplannerstoaddressclimatechange.Initialworkcoulddevelopaconsolidatedlistofplanninginformationthatcouldthenbereplicated,asapplicable,acrossawidevarietyoflocalplans.Initialworkwouldidentifyplansthatrelatetofloodplainmanagementanddeterminehowexactlyclimateandfloodriskfitintoeachprocess.Thisinformationwouldbeconsolidatedintoasetofuniqueplanningelements.Thesewouldbesynthesizedinachecklistcoveringallrequiredplanningelementsrelatedtofloodplainmanagement,alongwithguidanceonincorporatingtherelevantelementsintovariousplans,waystoleverageagency-specificexpertise,andopportunitiesforintegratingclimatechangeconsiderations.Additionalguidancewouldidentifywheretoextractfloodplainrelevantelementsfromoneplanforuseinanother(e.g.,fromasalmonplantoacomprehensiveplan).Thisanalysiswouldalsohighlightwaysthatcurrentagencyplanningrequirementscouldbeimproved.Forexample,agenciescouldincludeconsistencywithexistingplansaspartoftheirevaluationcriteriawhenreviewingnewplans.

Table8(nextpage)summarizestheworkplanactionitemsandtheircorrespondencewithclimateresilientfloodriskmanagementgoalsfromsection9.

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Table8:Summaryofworkplanactionitemsandtheiralignmentwiththeclimateresilientfloodriskmanagementgoals:

WorkplanGoals

1.Pub

licUnd

erstan

ding

2.LocalPlann

ing

3.AgencyPractices

4.AgencyCo

ordina

tion

5.Resilien

tFlood

plains

Workplan

ActionIte

ms

A1.PrecipitationExtremes ü ü

A2.StreamflowExtremes ü ü

A3.CoastalFloodRisk ü ü

A4.FutureFloodMaps ü ü ü

B1.FloodRisk“Bible” ü ü

B2.CaseStudies ü ü ü ü

B3.CentralizedResource ü ü ü

C1.SeminarSeries ü ü

C2.LocalInterviews ü ü ü

C3.LearningNetwork ü ü ü

D1.OutreachMaterials ü ü ü

D2.CoordinatedEngagement ü ü ü

E1.GoalsStatement ü ü ü

E2.PlanningChecklist ü ü ü

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12 PrioritiesforNear-termAction

TheSilverJacketsWorkshop,heldonJune12017,servedasavalidationexerciseforthedraftrecommendations,whichweredevelopedoutoftheinterviews.Followinga90-minutesmallgroupreviewofthesupportingactions,SilverJacketmembersworkedtoprioritizethespecificactionstoinformtheirworkplanoverthenexttwoyears.Theactionswereassessedby9SilverJacketmembersusingthefollowingcriteria:

1. Feasibility:IstheactiontechnicallyandfinanciallyfeasibleforSilverJacketmemberstoleadand/orimplement?

2. Impactonfloodriskmanagement:

a. protectionoflifeandproperty

b. environmentalconsiderations

c. reductionoffutureexposure/risk:

3. ImpactonClimateResiliencyIntegrationGoals:Willtheactionhelpachievethegoalsofintegratingclimateresilienceintofloodriskmanagement?

Allfourteendraftworkplanactionsweredisplayedinthefrontoftheroom.SilverJacketmembersweregiventhreevotesforeachofthefivecriterionlistedabove.Memberswereaskedtofortheactionsthatbestmetthecriteria.Theywerefreetoapplyallvotestoasingleactionordistributethemacrossmultipleactions.SincethepurposeoftheworkshopwastoprioritizeworkfortheSilverJacketsteam,workshopparticipantsfromoutsidetheSilverJacketsgroupwerenotgiventheopportunitytovote.TheresultsareshowninFigure1.

Followingtheprioritizationexercise,allworkshopparticipantsdiscussedtheresultsandreachedconsensusonsupportingthefollowingactionsasnear-termpriorities:

● A1:PrecipitationExtremes

● D1:DevelopOutreachMaterials

● E2:Createaplanningchecklist

● A4:FutureFloodMaps[Notdiscussedindetailattheworkshop]

● C3:CreateLearningNetworks[Notdiscussedindetailattheworkshop]

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Participantsthenbrokeoutintosmallgroupdiscussionstoidentifyleadsforthefirstthreeprioritiesanddelegatetasksforeachteam.Followingarebriefdescriptionsofeachgroup’sconclusions.

Figure1:WASJprioritizationofactionitemsbasedonfeasibility,impactonfloodriskmanagementgoals(protectionoflifeandproperty,environmentalconsiderations,andreductionoffutureexposure/risk)

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12.1 NearTermPriorityA1:PrecipitationExtremes

WashingtonSilverJacketsLead:BrentBower,NationalWeatherService

GoaloftheWork:Improveestimatesoffuturefloodextremesandtheirimpactsincludingtheirspatialdistribution

ClimateResilientFRMGoalsAddressed:

• 2–LocalPlanning

• 3–AgencyPractices

PrioritizationScores:

Figure2:WASJprioritizationscoresbreakdownforactionA1:PrecipitationExtremes

DescriptionofInitialActions:

TheSilverJacketsagreedthatforWashingtonStateasawhole,themosteffectivewaytoaddresstheneedtobettercharacterize,understand,andimproveestimatesoffutureextremeprecipitationeventsisthroughsupportingtheregionalupdatetoNOAAAtlas14.NOAAhaspreparedaproposedscopeandbudgetbothforanupdatetotheAtlas,aswellasanoptional

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separatescopetoassessnon-stationarityinprecipitation.

TheNOAAbudgetfortheAtlas14updatewouldcostWashingtonState$400-600K.EffortsbytheWASJteamwillfocusoncoordinationwithothergroupsthatmaybenefitfromtheNOAAAtlasupdate,writingandsolicitinglettersofsupport,performingexamplecalculations,andotherwiseidentifyingtasksandapproachesthatmayincreasethechanceoffunding.

TheWASJTeamplansreachouttootheragenciesandregionalcoordinationgroupssincethesegroupsmayhavealreadylookedintooptionsforfundingtheNOAAeffort,andthecostislowerifthestatesofWashington,Oregon,Idaho,andMontanacancoordinate.TheteamcurrentlyplanstoconsultwiththeOregonandIdahoSilverJacketsteams,theNorthwestRegionFloodplainManagementAssociation(NORFMA),andtheWashingtonStatedepartmentsofTransportation(WSDOT)toassesscurrenteffortstoobtainthisfunding.

PreliminaryActionsIdentifiedintheWorkshop:

• BrentBower(NWS)tocommunicatewithNOAAHeadquartersandactasliaisonbetweenWASJTeamandNOAAonthiswork

• TedPerkins(FEMA)tocommunicatewiththeOregonSJTeam

• KatherineRowden(NWS)tocommunicatewiththeIdahoSJTeam

• HansHunger(NORFMA)togaugeNORFMAsupportforNOAAAtlasupdate

PotentialFundingSources:TheWashingtonSilverJacketsteamwillsupportthiseffortthroughin-kindcontributionsoftimeandresources.

UnassignedTasks:

• SJvolunteertocontactWSDOTregardingactingasanotherpotentiallead

• SJvolunteerneededtoperformexampleanalysesshowingdifferencesinprecipitationstatisticswhenobservationsafter1970areincluded

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12.2 NearTermPriorityD1:OutreachMaterials

WashingtonSilverJacketsLead:TravisBall,ArmyCorpsofEngineers

GoaloftheWork:Developinteragencyoutreachmaterialsonclimatechangeandfloodriskmanagement,tailoredwithlocally-relevantinformationforindividualjurisdictions(PowerPoints,website,brochures,videos)

ClimateResilientFRMGoalsAddressed:

• 1–PublicUnderstanding• 2–LocalPlanning• 4–AgencyCoordination

PrioritizationScores:

Figure3:WASJprioritizationscoresbreakdownforactionD1:OutreachMaterials

DescriptionofInitialActions:

TheSJgroupagreedthattargetinglocalelectedofficialsshouldbethepriorityofoutreach,with

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asecondarygoalofstrategicoutreachtothegeneralpubliconreducingfloodriskandbuildingclimateresilience.Thesmallgroupemphasizedthatdifferentstrategiesandmaterialsmaybeneededforeachgroupandlocation,andnotedtheimportanceofcommunicatingviaatrustedmessenger.TheyalsofeltitwasimportantthattheSilverJacketsnameandbrandwasincludedonoutreachmaterialsinordertopresentaunified,consistent,andtrustworthymessage.

PreliminaryActionsIdentifiedintheWorkshop:

• ReviewNWSsocialscienceandFEMAoutreachcontractorresearchoncommunicatingfloodriskinamannerthatleadstorisk-reducingactions.Ifneeded,engageaconsultantorsomeoneintheacademiccommunityonmessagingaroundclimatechangeandfloodrisktoensurethatexistingmaterialsareappropriateandnewmaterialsareeffective

• Reviewexistingoutreachmaterialsacrossagencies

• Ensurethatrelevantsourcesofclimateinformationareincludedandexplained

PotentialFundingSources:TheresearchteamhelpeddraftaFloodplainManagementServices(FPMS)grantapplication,aprogramoftheUSACE.TheWASJhassuccessfullyreceivedthisgrantinpreviousyearsfortheirpost-firefloodingcommunicationgrants,andUSACEstafffamiliarwiththeprogrambelieveitisagoodfit.

UnassignedTasks:

• SubmissionofFPMSfundingopportunity

• ContactingNWS,FEMA,and/oracademicpartnerregardingcommunication

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12.3 NearTermPriorityE2:CreateaPlanningChecklist

WashingtonSilverJacketsLead(s):DerrickHiebert,EmergencyManagementDivisionandDaveRadabaugh,WAStateDepartmentofEcology

Goalofthiswork:Ensurethatclimate-relatedplanningrequirementsareconsistentacrossagencyprogramsandprovidesupportforlocalplannerstoaddressclimatechangethroughcreationofaplanningchecklist

ClimateResilientFRMGoalsAddressed:

• 2–LocalPlanning

• 3–AgencyPractices

• 4–AgencyCoordination

PrioritizationScores:

Figure4:WASJprioritizationscoresbreakdownforactionE2:PlanningChecklist

DescriptionofInitialActions:

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TheWASJTeamdeterminedthatthecreationofaplanningchecklistwouldbeaneffectivemethodtoalignwhat“climateintegration”meansasarequirementandtoensureconsistencyacrossplanningprocesses.Thechecklistwillsupportlocalgovernmentsinidentifyingwhatplansrequireclimateinformationanddevelopingaconsistentsetofinformationthatcanbeusedformultipleplanningprocessesandrequirementsacrossdepartments.Thisisworkwillrequireathoroughreviewofexistingguidanceinformationandtheincorporationoflocalperspectives.

PreliminaryActionsIdentifiedattheWorkshop:

• Gatherexistingguidanceinformationfromagenciesthatcurrentlyincorporateclimateconsiderationsinfuturefloodpredictionsintheirplanningprocessesincluding:

o DepartmentofCommerce:comprehensiveplansandCAOs

o DepartmentofEcology:floodplainmanagementandNFIP,SMPs

o DepartmentofNaturalResources&FishandWildlife:mitigationprograms

o NOAA:salmonrecoveryplansandESAconsiderations

o EMD:HMPs

• Compareexistingguidanceandmakerecommendationsforconsistency

• Holdaworkshopforagenciestoreviewrecommendations

• Pilottheguidanceonaselectfewjurisdictions(largeandsmall,eastandwestside)

• Reviewfeedbackfrompilotjurisdictionsandadjustchecklistresourceaccordingly

PotentialFundingSources:DaveRadabaughandDerrickHiebertarebothfundedfortheirparticipationintheWASJ.AdditionalfundingisbeingdiscussedviaWASJdiscretionaryfunds.

UnassignedTasks:

• Applicationforadditionalfundingifdeemednecessary

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13 Conclusions

AsclimatechangecontinuestoaffectfloodriskinWashingtonState,coordinationandcommunication,bothamongagenciesandbetweenagenciesandlocalcommunities,willbecomeincreasinglyimportant.Climatechangechallengesexistingfloodmanagementapproachesandhighlightsimportantdatagaps.Italsostressesexistingmanagementsystemsandincreasestheneedforimprovedinstitutionalprocessesandoutreachefforts.Giventheirtechnicalandmanagementexpertiseandtheimpactoftheircombinedactionsasaninter-agencyteam,theWashingtonSilverJacketsgroupisuniquelypositionedtoactasaresourceandaleaderinincreasingtheclimateresilienceofWashington’sfloodriskmanagementsystem.TheWASJteamisnewrelativetoteamsinotherstates,butmembersareengagedandenthusiasticaboutaddressingthischallenge.Theyarealreadytakingactiontofundandbeginworkonthenear-termprioritiestheyidentified.Wehopethatthisprojecthashelpedcatalyzetheircollectiveenergyandresourcesaroundthistopicandthattheworkplancontinuestoserveasaroadmapforongoingcollaborationonclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement.

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15 Appendix

15.1 WashingtonSilverJacketsRoster

Agency LastName FirstName Position

FEMA Perkins Dwight(Ted) RegionalEngineer

FEMA Riedy Michael VoluntaryAgencyLiaison

FEMA Stone Kelly RiskAnalyst

NOAA Bower Brent ServiceHydrologist

NOAA Bryant Andy ServiceHydrologist

NOAA Intermill Joe Hydrologist-In-Charge

NOAA Lohmann Marilyn ServiceHydrologist

NOAA Rowden Katherine ServiceHydrologist

NOAAFederal King Stephen ServiceCoordinationHydrologist

NORFMA Hunger Hans CapitalImprovementProgramManager

NRCS Johnson Larry ConservationEngineer

NRCS Lange Joe DesignEngineer

OWSC Bumbaco Karin AssistantStateClimatologist

USACE Ball Travis HydraulicEngineer

USACE Bessey G.H. LeveeSafetyProgramManager

USACE Boen Cindy ProjectManager

USACE Downing Daryl ProjectManager

USACE Hobbs BrandonW. DistrictOutreachCoordinator

USACE Ifft CharlesH. LeveeSafetyProgramManager

USACE Katz DanielM. HydraulicEngineer

USACE Schwarz Tracy WallaWallaDistrictHydraulicEngineer

USACE Sclafani Paul HydraulicEngineer

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USACE Stidham JefferyL. DisasterResponseManager

USACE Weber DouglasT. EmergencyManagementChief

USGS Mastin Mark SurfaceWaterSpecialist

WAECY Franklin Jerry RiskAnalyst

WAECY McKinney Scott FloodplainManagement:StateCoordinator

WAECY Radabaugh David NFIPStateCoordinator

WAECY Schmidt Lynn FloodplainManagement:EasternWashington

WAECY Talebi Bobbak CoastalProgramPlanner

WAECY Walther Martin HydrologicEngineer

WAEMD Hiebert Derrick HazardMitigationStrategist

WAEMD Spicer DavidN. HazardMitigationGrantCoordinator

WAEMD Tomt Sarah TsunamiProgramCoordinator

WAEMD Walker Brynne TsunamiProgramCoordinator

WSDOT Himmel John WSDOTEmergencyandSecurityManager

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15.2 WorkshopAttendeeList

Agency/Organization

LastName FirstName Title

CIG Morgan Harriet ResearchConsultant

ESAConsulting Easton Spencer ProjectManager

FEMA Perkins Dwight(Ted) RegionalEngineer

KingCounty Comanor Kyle SeniorEngineer

KingCounty Murray BrianPolicyandProgramSupervisor:RiverandFloodplainManagement

NOAA Bower Brent ServiceHydrologist

NOAA Rowden Katherine ServiceHydrologist

NORFMA Hunger Hans CapitalImprovementProgramManager

PierceCounty Walker Brynne TsunamiProgramCoordinator

USACE Brettman KennethSeniorWaterManager:WesternWashington

USACE Dillon Jeff CivilWorksProjectManagementChief

USGS Labiosa Bill RegionalScienceCoordinator

USGS Matsin Mark SurfaceWaterSpecialist

WAECY Radabaugh David NFIPStateCoordinator

WAECY Schmidt LynnFloodplainManagement:EasternWashington

WAECY Walther Martin HydrologicEngineer

WAEMD Hiebert Derrick HazardMitigationStrategist

Organizer:UWSMEA Kennard Haley GraduateStudentResearchAssistant

Organizer:CIG Mauger Guillaume ResearchScientist

Organizer:HookEnvironmental Hook Abby Facilitator

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15.3 InterviewGuide

1. IntroductoryQuestions:

a. Fortherecording,couldyoutellusyourname,youjobtitle,andabitaboutyourcurrentrole?

b. Howlonghaveyoubeenworkingasafloodriskmanager?

c. HowlonghaveyoubeeninvolvedwithWASilverJacketsandwhatistheroleofyourorganizationwithinSilverJackets?

d. HowwouldyourateyourfamiliaritywithclimatechangeimpactsinWashingtonStateandcurrentclimatescienceresources?

2. Descriptionofproblemandcurrentstateofintegration,anduseofresources:

a. Whataretheprimarycausesoffloodinginyourregion?Whateventstypicallyleadtoextremefloodevents?

b. Broadlyspeaking,whataresomeelementsofsuccessfulfloodriskmanagement??

c. Inyourwork,whatarethecurrentprioritiesformanagingfloodrisk?

d. What,ifany,arethebenefitstomakingfloodriskmanagementmoreresilienttoclimatechange?

e. Areyoucurrentlyusingclimatechangeinformationinyourwork?

• IfNOTUSINGCCinfo:Whynot?Doyouhaveauseforclimatechangeprojections?Whatbarriersexisttoyouusingthisinformation?

• IfUSINGCCinfo:Ifso,how?Whatresourcesdoyouuse?Whatsourcesdoyouturntoforthisinformation?Arethoseresourceseffective?

3. ChallengesandOpportunities:

a. Whataretheopportunitiesformakingfloodriskmanagementmoreresilienttoclimatechangeinthenearterm(<5yrs)?Inthelongerterm(>5yrs)?

b. Whataretheprimaryinstitutional/organizational/political/legal/technologicalbarriersfacingtheintegrationofclimatechangescienceintofloodriskplanning

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andmanagementinyourwork?

c. Whatisneededforyouragencytobetterintegrateclimatescienceintofloodriskplanning?

d. Inanidealworld,whatonefactororbarrierwouldyouchangesothatyourinstitutionmightbetteraddressclimatechangeandfloodriskmanagement?

e. Ifyouhadtofindawaytomakefloodriskmanagementmoreresilienttoclimatechangewithinyouragency’scurrentauthoritiesandprograms,howwouldyougoaboutit?

f. Howdoesyouragency’sparticipationinSilverJacketsorothercollaborationsimproveyourabilitytoaddressthesechallenges?

4. SolutionsandInformationNeeds:

a. Whatadditionalscience/data/modelingresourceswouldmakeintegrationofclimateinformationeasier/better?

b. Whatwouldyoudowiththatinformation?Howwouldyouuseittoimprovemanagement?

c. Whatelseisneededinordertobetterintegrateclimatechangescienceintofloodriskplanningandmanagement,outsideofscienceneeds?

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15.4 AnalyticalCodesList

• BenefitstoimprovingCC-resilienceofFRM

• Challenge/barrier:Other

• Challenge/barrier:Science

• Decision-makingandagency

• EffectsofCConFRM

• Existingmanagement

• FRM:actions

• FRM:impacts&causes

• FRM:priorities

• Futuremanagement

• Opportunities&successes

• Risk&uncertainty

• Solutions/needs:Other

• Solutions/needs:science&data

• SuccessfulFRM

• UseofexistingCCresources

• ValueofSilverJackets