aaa cantor initiating coverage jk · peter prattas, ca cfa (416) 350-8152 4 of 12 company...

March 8, 2013 Initiating Coverage

Peter Prattas, CA CFA [email protected] (416) 350-8152

Sales/Trading — Toronto: (416) 363-5757, (866) 442-4485; Montreal: (514) 845-8111, (800) 465-5616

See disclosure and a description of our recommendation structure at the end of this report.

Company profile: Allana Potash is developing a very significant potash project located in Ethiopia.

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ALLANA POTASH An advanced junior potash play boasting ultra-compelling characteristics

INVESTMENT THESIS

Allana Potash is a pre-construction stage junior potash play located in Ethiopia that we believe will be one of the select few greenfield potash projects to advance to production thus offering a highly leveraged investment opportunity in a fundamentally strong potash sector.

VALUATION

We are initiating coverage of Allana Potash with a BUY recommendation and a one-year price target of C$1.25 per share. Our target is based on a 0.5× price to project NAV multiple plus cash. The company currently trades at only 7% of the NPV determined in its feasibility study.

FOCUS POINTS

▪ Robust project economics benefitting from a low cost profile. A recently completed feasibility shows a $1.32 billion NPV and a 33% IRR with both operating and capital costs at the low end of the cost spectrum.

▪ Large resource with the potential to double production capacity to 2 Mtpa. The study envisions 1 Mtpa of production from sylvinite member excluding the underlying carnallitite and kainitite zones and further exploration.

▪ A strong cash position, highly supportive big-pocketed shareholders and unique access to project debt. The company further seeks to secure a strategic investor further enabling it to fully fund its project by mid-year.

▪ A stable African country with a highly supportive government. Ethiopia’s economy is leading Africa with a growth rate near 10% and the government is very keen on developing its natural resource sector.

Recommendation: BUY

Symbol/Exchange: AAA/TSX

Sector: Fertilizer

All dollar values in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Current price: C$0.47

One-year target: C$1.25

Target return: 165%

Financial summary

Source: Company documents, Cantor Fitzgerald Canada

Shares O/S (M) 275.7 52-Week Range (C$) $0.43 - $0.75

Market Cap (C$M) 129.6 Avg. Weekly Volume 2,160,000

Enterprise Value (C$M) 88.3 Net Cash (C$M) 41.3

US$M (Dec-31) F2016E F2017E F2018E F2019E

Revenue (US$M) 225$ 338$ 450$ 450$

EBITDA (US$M) 163$ 245$ 327$ 327$

CAPEX (US$M) 12$ 18$ 24$ 24$

Free cash flow (US$M) 151$ 227$ 303$ 303$

Production (Mtpa) 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00

MOP Price (US$/T) 450$ 450$ 450$ 450$

OPEX (US$/T) 100$ 100$ 100$ 100$

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Allana Potash March 8, 2013

Peter Prattas, CA CFA (416) 350-8152 2 of 12

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3

Company description ..................................................................................................... 4

Investment positives ....................................................................................................... 5

A recent feasibility study shows very robust project economics ..................... 5

The project is well advanced versus both local and global peers .................... 5

The potash resource is substantial with potential to expand............................ 5

The operation is very low cost and deploys proven mining methods ............ 6

Strategic location within close proximity of key Asian markets ...................... 6

Ethiopia is a stable African nation with a supportive government ................. 7

Strong cash position and the company has unique access to capital .............. 7

Allana is on a fast track to production ................................................................. 7

Investment risk ................................................................................................................ 8

Financing risk ........................................................................................................... 8

Potential near-term catalysts ......................................................................................... 8

Signing of a strategic investor ................................................................................ 8

Securing project debt .............................................................................................. 9

Financial forecast, valuation and financing ................................................................. 9

Financial forecast ..................................................................................................... 9

Valuation .................................................................................................................10

Financing.................................................................................................................10

Recommendation and valuation .................................................................................10

Management and board of directors ..........................................................................11



INTRODUCTION

We are initiating coverage of Allana Potash, a company focused on developing a very significant potash project in Ethiopia. The company aims to be one of the world’s lowest cost potash producers due to its unique near-surface potash deposit which is amenable to low-cost solution mining. The production scenario envisions 1 million tonnes per annum of conventional potash production (MOP). Production costs are estimated to be $65 per tonne, roughly half that typical of a producer in Saskatchewan, while the initial capital cost estimate at $642 million is also at the very low end of the cost spectrum. Accordingly, project economics are very robust with a feasibility study recently completed indicating a $1.32 billion NPV, a 33% after-tax internal rate of return and a 3.1 year pay-back period. The company is moving quickly to secure financing to begin construction. In addition to having $41 million of cash on the books, the company has two significant shareholders seemingly committed to maintaining their pro-rata interest in the company (a ~17% stake held by Liberty Metals and Mining and a 3% stake held by International Finance Corporation – a member of the World Bank Group). Further, the company is working to close an investment from a strategic investor (including an off-take agreement) while securing project debt. Notably, Allana has received significant preliminary interest regarding debt financing from large multi-lateral financing organizations as well as export credit agencies largely resulting from having secured investment from the IFC (a massive endorsement).

We are initiating coverage of Allana Potash with a BUY recommendation and a one-year price target of C$1.25 per share. Our target is based on a 0.5× price to project NAV multiple plus cash. The company currently trades at a mere 7% of the NPV determined in its feasibility study offering plenty of upside beyond our target price as the project is further de-risked. With advancement to production and execution within the envisioned cost parameters, we foresee the potential for a $5.00 to $10.00 share price longer term (valuing it in-line with potash producers around 10x EV/EBITDA), excluding upside from expanding the production scenario beyond 1 Mtpa.



COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Allana Potash is a junior potash exploration company, formed in 2007, with a flagship potash project in Ethiopia. The Danakhil Potash Deposit is located in Ethiopia’s northeastern Danakhil Depression encompassing a footprint of 312 square kilometres approximately 100 kilometres from the Red Sea coast and 554 kilometers by road to port in Djibouti. The area is well known for small-scale potash mining and extensive exploration carried out intermittently from the early 1900’s.

Exhibit 1. Project Location

Source: Company documents

The company also has a 100% interest in over 1,540 square kilometres in the potash-rich Nequen province of Argentina. A portion of the land is directly adjacent to Vale’s Rio Colorado project, which aims to produce 2.4 million tonnes of potash per year. Allana is currently allocating minimal resources toward this Argentinian project; hence we focus our report entirely on Ethiopia.



INVESTMENT POSITIVES

A recent feasibility study shows very robust project economics

Last month, Allana completed a feasibility study confirming both technical viability and robust economics of its project. The study computed a $1.32 billion after-tax NPV using a 10% discount rate implying an internal rate of return (after-tax) of 33% and a 3.1 year payback period. Both operating costs at $99 per tonne and capital costs at $642 million are at the very low end of the cost spectrum versus competing greenfield potash projects.

The project is well advanced versus both local and global peers

Allana is now one of only three projects we identify to have surpassed the feasibility phase with superior economics to the other two which are located in Saskatchewan. Within the basin, Allana is furthest along among five projects. Olso-listed Yara International (US$12 billion market-cap) recently acquired a controlling interest in a neighbouring project which is also significantly advanced as is South Boulder Mines in the neighbouring country of Eritrea.

The potash resource is substantial with potential to expand

Proven and probable reserves total 24 million tonnes of MOP, as per the feasibility study, within the sylvinite zone excluding potential mining of potash from the carnallitite and kainitite zones. Measured, indicated and inferred resources across all zones total 2.1 billion mineable tonnes at an average grade of 20% or 421 million tonnes of KCl. The company plans on undergoing further exploration work which will likely lead to both a further increase and upgrading of resources. Accordingly, we see the potential to expand the production scenario from the currently envisioned rate of 1 million tonnes per annum to more than double that.

Exhibit 2. Potash Resource (Million Tonnes)


Measured and Indicated Sylvinite Resource 327.4 28.3% 92.7

Inferred Sylvinite Resource 90.8 27.8% 25.2

Measured and Indicated Upper Carnallite Resource 78.5 18.4% 14.4

Inferred Upper Carnallite Resource 155.5 17.0% 26.4

Measured and Indicated Lower Carnallite Resource 269.1 10.9% 29.2

Inferred Lower Carnallite Resource 130.7 11.7% 15.3

Measured and Indicated Kainitite Resource 701.6 20.3% 142.1

Inferred Kainitite Resource 373.7 20.4% 76.0

Total Measured and Indicated 1376.6 20.2% 278.5

Total Inferred 750.7 19.0% 142.9

Total Measured, Indicated and Inferred 2127.3 19.8% 421.4



The operation is very low cost and deploys proven mining methods

Allana’s project benefits from the deposit being near surface and through the ability to deploy solar evaporation techniques resulting in lower production costs. The deposit rests primarily between 100 metres and 300 metres from surface versus the majority of the world’s existing production over a kilometre deep. Solution mining is widely used and relatively low cost (particularly with respect to capital cost). Allana is uniquely positioned to use solar evaporation techniques by virtue of its geographic location resulting in material operating cost savings.

Exhibit 3. Solution Mining and Production Process


Strategic location within close proximity of key Asian markets

Allana’s property is 554 kilometers by road to the Tadjoura Port in Djibouti which compares favourably to the approximate 1,500 kilometres separating potash produced in Saskatchewan from port facilities in Vancouver. As well, Djibouti is roughly 3,300 kilometers from the port of Mumbai in India which is one of the world’s largest importing nations of potash. This compares very favourably to potash shipped from Vancouver which is almost three times the distance. Allana’s project provides an opportunity for Asian buyers to access a source of potash outside of the influence of large potash marketing cooperatives (Canpotex and Belarusian Potash Company).



Exhibit 4. Allana’s Proximity to Key Markets


Ethiopia is a stable African nation with a supportive government

Ethiopia has been one of the world’s fastest growing nations (near 10% annual growth) led by growing exports (near 25% annual growth). In order for this to continue, the government recognizes the need and has implemented policies to encourage free market investment and the building of critical infrastructure. The country has attracted sizeable investment from Chinese investors, as well as other Asian, European, American and African countries. Notably, the Chinese government recently built and paid for the new headquarters of the African Union in the country at an estimated cost of US$200 million. We believe this gift from the Chinese is a testament of Ethiopia’s stability and its strategic importance in Africa and the world more broadly.

Strong cash position and the company has unique access to capital

Allana has the strongest cash position among its junior potash peers which totals $41 million as last reported. It also has two strong investors (Liberty and IFC) seemingly committed funding the project long-term. Last year the company announced that initial discussions with various prospective lenders were very positive and that non-binding indications of interest totalled over $600 million, exceeding the amount of debt financing the company was contemplating. The investment from IFC is a key enabler for funding from large multi-lateral financing organizations as well as export credit agencies given its stringent socio-economic and environmental requirements. Accordingly, Allana has access to significant sources of capital where competing projects do not.

Allana is on a fast track to production

With the feasibility study now complete, the team is working to complete its environmental and social assessment soon which we expected to be non-onerous given the desolate location. At the same time, Allana is contemplating its financing options with a goal of solidifying its capital needs in the first half of this year in time to commence construction in the second half. Accordingly, the company could commence production in the latter part of 2015.



Exhibit 5. Timeline


INVESTMENT RISK

Financing risk

The most significant risk for Allana, common to all unfunded junior resource projects, is financing risk. The project will require a combination of debt and equity which is challenging in the current economic environment. We identify Allana as an excellent investment opportunity precisely because we believe the company is among the best positioned to secure its capital needs given the overwhelmingly positive merits of the project and because of its unique funding opportunities.

POTENTIAL NEAR-TERM CATALYSTS

Signing of a strategic investor

The company continues to hold discussions with a vast array of potential strategic investors and/or offtake partners. The goal of these discussions is to secure additional funding for the project and a significant buyer of the end product thus easing the efforts of securing all of the necessary financing required to get the project started. Nations like China and India are likely to have interest due to those nations’ large potash importing requirements and their overabundant reliance on a select few producers demonstrating cartel-like behaviour. However, interest may sooner come from a fertilizer major like Yara (US$12 billion market-cap) which currently has a controlling interest in a neighbouring Ethiopian project (a private company) which we assess to be inferior. Allana recently completed a highly strategic acquisition of neighbouring Nova Potash which further strengthened its position as the most advanced potash play in the Danakhil region and provided it with access to additional water resources which could be lacking in neighbouring projects. As such, Yara may be increasingly motivated to form symbiotic relations with Allana. This may range from sharing infrastructure costs to acquiring Allana outright.

ACTIVITY 1H 2012 2H 20121Q

2013

2Q

2013

3Q

2013

4Q

2013

1Q 2014 –

4Q 2015

1Q 2016 –

4Q 2017+

Drilling / Exploration>25,000 metres

In-fill pre-production,Nova ground

Resource EstimateNI43-101 compliant

ERCOSPLANUpdate

Apr.2012

Reserves

in FS

Technical & Economic

Feasibility Study (FS)ERCOSPLAN

FugroMiningLicenceEnvironmental &

Social AssessmentERM

Off-take Agreement(s)

Strategic/Financial Investor(s) DD &Close

Project Financing BNP Paribas

Project Contracting

Construction

& Pre-OperationsPlant, Ponds

& Initial Well Field

Operations Ramping to Target Output

Ramp-up

& Full Production

Project

Equity

Commitments

Project

Debt

Commitments



Securing project debt

As discussed, initial discussions with possible lenders was very positive. Now that the feasibility study is complete, Allana is in an excellent position to formalize debt commitments from these and other prospective lenders soon. Success in this regard would be a critical risk mitigating catalyst for the company considering that financing risk remains the most notable overhang.

FINANCIAL FORECAST, VALUATION AND FINANCING

Financial forecast

Our forecast assumes 1 mtpa of potash production and a constant long-term potash price forecast of US$450 per tonne (fixed versus the BFS which assumes $430 per tonne and escalating) along with an operating cost estimate of US$100 per tonne ($99 per the BFS) and a capital cost estimate of US$650 million ($642 million per the BFS). We deduct a 4.0% royalty on revenue payable to the government, a 1.5% net smelter royalty payable to the property vendor and a 35% tax rate (consistent with Ethiopian statutory rates) following a five-year tax holiday. While production is targeted to commence sooner, we more conservatively assume initial production in 2016 ramping to full production in 2018 with a 40-year mine life.

Exhibit 6. Cash Flow Forecast

Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Canada, company documents

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021…

Gross Revenue ($000's) 225,000 337,500 450,000 450,000 450,000 450,000

- Potash Price (US$/MT) 450$ 450$ 450$ 450$ 450$ 450$

- Production (000's MT) 500 750 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Operating Costs / T 100$ 100$ 100$ 100$ 100$ 100$

- Production / T 65$ 65$ 65$ 65$ 65$ 65$

- T ransport / T 28$ 28$ 28$ 28$ 28$ 28$

- Overhead/contingency / T 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$

Operating Expenses 50,000 75,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000

Gross Margin ($000's) 175,000 262,500 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000

Royalties 11,625 17,438 23,250 23,250 23,250 23,250

-Government (4% on revenue) 9,000 13,500 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000

-NSR (1.5%) 2,625 3,938 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250

EBITDA ($000's) 163,375 245,063 326,750 326,750 326,750 326,750

Taxes (35%) 114,363

Capex ($000's) 325,000 325,000 12,000 18,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

Free Cash Flow ($000's) (325,000) (325,000) 151,375 227,063 302,750 302,750 302,750 188,388



Valuation

We discount future cash flows using a 14% discount rate (10% per the feasibility study) for conservatism considering the potential for cost creep and the uncertainty surrounding financing. Based on our analysis, we calculate an NPV of $650 million (BFS says $1.32 billion) and an internal rate of return of 30% after-tax (BFS says 33%). We apply a 0.5x P/NAV multiple plus add Allana’s net cash position to derive our $1.25 per share target price. Notably, this target price could be revised upwards as the project is further de-risked and with an increase in the production scenario towards 2 mtpa which we believe is feasible given the size of the resource.

Financing

We assume the estimated US$650 million in capex will be financed via a combination of debt (US$390 million or 60%) and equity (US$260 million or 40%). This could prove conservative given the non-binding demand that Allana has received from lenders thus far as discussed. Beyond that, the company has significant equity investment (~20%) from Liberty and IFC combined who could maintain their pro-rata interest going forward and may further participate on the debt side. Liberty has maintained its prorated interest in the company on successive financings and appears keen to stay the course on any future raises. We expect that any strategic partner will be interested in investing capital into the project in addition to arranging an off take agreement. Accordingly, we believe Allana is well positioned to deliver on financing with favourable terms and within a reasonable timeframe. Notably, the company currently has C$41 million in cash (as of October 31, 2012).

RECOMMENDATION AND VALUATION

We are initiating coverage of Allana Potash with a BUY recommendation and a one-year price target of C$1.25 per share. Our target is based on a 0.5× price to project NAV multiple plus cash. The company currently trades at only 7% of the NPV determined in its feasibility study.



MANAGEMENT AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Exhibit 7. Board of directors

Name Office Director since Principal occupation

Farhad Abasov Ontario, Canada

CEO & Director 2008 Please see table below.

Richard Lacroix (1) Alberta, Canada

Director 2010 Former Senior Vice President, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (PCS), former Director of Canpotex & former Chairman of Canpotex Bulk Terminals, 30 years with PCS.

Lewis MacKenzie (1) (2) Ontario, Canada

Director 2008 Former General - Canadian Armed Forces; lead UN Peacekeeping force in Balkans.

Dr. Mark Stauffer (1) (2) (3) Saskatchewan, Canada

Chairman 2010 Former President of Potash and Phosphate Institute of Canada, over 30 years of experience in potash & fertilizer markets.

Diana Walters (1) (2) New York, U.S.A.

Director 2010 Current President/CEO of Liberty Metals and Mining, over 20 years in management positions for energy, mining & finance.

1. Member of the Compensation and Corporate Governance Committee 2. Member of the Audit Committee 3. Non-Executive Chairman of the Board Source: Company documents

Exhibit 8. Senior management

Name Office Previous positions

Farhad Abasov

MBA

CEO & Director Mr. Abasov has over 17 years of business management experience. He is also currently Executive Chairman of Rodinia Lithium. He has founded several public and private mining and energy companies. Previously he was Senior Vice-President at Potash One (subsequently sold to K+S in 2010) and Vice-President at Uranium One. He is a former member of the Energy Metals management team (Energy Metals was sold to Uranium One for $1.8 billion in 2007). Mr. Abasov also sits on numerous boards of public and private companies.

Peter MacLean

Ph.D., P.Geo

SVP, Exploration Over 20 years of experience in the mining & exploration industry with junior and senior mining companies including Monarch Resources, Aur Resources and Newmont Mining.

Nejib Abba Biya

SVP, Corporate Development (Ethiopia)

Originally from Ethiopia, over 20 years experience conducting business in Ethiopia, excellent working relations with the federal and regional governments.

Jack Scott

MBA, P. Eng

SVP, Strategic Projects Over 25 years experience worldwide with resource, energy, infrastructure and technology industries in project development and financing, engineering and construction, risk valuation, strategic planning, acquisitions and divestments.

Richard Kelertas,

MscF., RPF

SVP, Corporate Development For 25 years, a top ranked equity analyst for various national and international firms, also having held various positions in corporate Canada in sales, marketing, corporate development, corporate banking and equity capital markets.

Jason Wilkinson

M.Sc

VP, Danakhil Operations (Ethiopia) Over 15 years exploration and development experience in Africa, Asia and Europe. Most recently head of exploration for Lydian and Aur Resources.




DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES

Disclaimers

The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation (“CFCC”) as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. CFCC makes every effort to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and that contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete; however, CFCC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. Information may be available to CFCC that is not herein.

This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor clients of CFCC, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This report is issued and approved for distribution in Canada, CFCC, a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada ("IIROC"), the Toronto Stock Exchange and the CIPF. This report has not been reviewed or approved by Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. (CF & Co.), a member of FINRA. This report is intended for distribution in the United States only to Major Institutional Investors (as such term is defined in SEC 15a-6 and Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) and is not intended for the use of any person or entity that is not a major institutional investor. Major Institutional Investors receiving this report should effect transactions in securities discussed in the report through CF & Co.

Non US Broker Dealer 15a-6 disclosure: This report is being distributed by (CF Canada/CF Europe/CF Hong Kong) in the United States and is intended for distribution in the United States solely to “major U.S. institutional investors” (as such term is defined in Rule15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and applicable interpretations relating thereto) and is not intended for the use of any person or entity that is not a major institutional investor. This material is intended solely for institutional investors and investors who Cantor reasonably believes are institutional investors. It is prohibited for distribution to non-institutional clients including retail clients, private clients and individual investors. Major Institutional Investors receiving this report should effect transactions in securities discussed in this report through Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. This report has been prepared in whole or in part by research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co that are not registered as broker-dealers in the United States. These non-US research analysts are not registered as associated persons of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA’s restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with a subject company, public appearances by research analysts, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Potential conflicts of interest

The author of this report is compensated based in part on the overall revenues of CFC, a portion of which are generated by investment banking activities. CFCC may have had, or seek to have, an investment banking relationship with companies mentioned in this report. CFCC and/or its officers, directors and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. Although CFCC makes every effort possible to avoid conflicts of interest, readers should assume that a conflict might exist, and therefore not rely solely on this report when evaluating whether or not to buy or sell the securities of subject companies.

Disclosures as of March 8, 2013

CFCC has not provided investment banking services or received investment banking related compensation from Allana Potash within the past 12 months.

The analyst responsible for this research report does not have, either directly or indirectly, a long or short position in the shares or options of Allana Potash.

The analyst responsible for this report has visited the material operations of Allana Potash. No payment or reimbursement was received for the related travel costs.

Analyst certification

The research analyst whose name appears on this report hereby certifies that the opinions and recommendations expressed herein accurately reflect his personal views about the securities, issuers or industries discussed herein.

Definitions of recommendations

BUY: The stock is attractively priced relative to the company’s fundamentals and we expect it to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months.

BUY (Speculative): The stock is attractively priced relative to the company’s fundamentals, however investment in the security carries a higher degree of risk.

HOLD: The stock is fairly valued, lacks a near term catalyst, or its execution risk is such that we expect it to trade within a narrow range of the current price in the next 6 to 12 months. The longer term fundamental value of the company may be materially higher, but certain milestones/catalysts have yet to be fully realized.

SELL: The stock is overpriced relative to the company’s fundamentals, and we expect it to decline from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months.

TENDER: We believe the offer price by the acquirer is fair and thus recommend investors tender their shares to the offer.

UNDER REVIEW: We are temporarily placing our recommendation under review until further information is disclosed.

Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Customers' accounts are protected by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund within specified

limits. A brochure describing the nature and limits of coverage is available upon request.

aaa cantor initiating coverage jk · peter prattas, ca cfa (416) 350-8152 4 of 12 company...

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