Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 1

Systems Analysis and Decision Support

Prof. Raimo P. HämäläinenGroup: Dr. Kai VirtanenM.Sc. Juho Kokkala, Jukka Luoma,Ville Mattila, Jirka Poropudas, Jouni Pousi,Mika Marttunen, Finnish Environment Institute

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 2

Research topicsSystems analysis and decision support

• Dynamic systems– Strategy of flight– Maintenance of aircraft

• Multicriteria decision modeling and games– Web software

• Environment– New tools for facilitation

• Systems thinking

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 3

ImpactSystems analysis and decision support

• Theory of preference programming– Decision under uncertainty– Group decision

• Decisionarium web site– Repository for worldwide use of decision support

software• Best-practices for environmental decision

analysis • Nuclear risk management model implemented in

European Union and India

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 4

Where tomorrow?Systems analysis and decision support

• Institute for Systems and Decision Research (national IIASA with PhD education)

• Systems thinking and systems intelligence• Neuroeconomics and behavioural studies• Multicriteria optimization and metamodeling

in simulation• Dynamic influence diagrams

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 5

Optimization and Game Theory Models and Algorithms

Prof. Harri EhtamoTech.Lic. Kimmo BergM.Sc. Simo Heliövaara, Juha-Matti Kuusinen, Mirko Ruokokoski, Janne Sorsa

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 6

Research topicsOptimization and game theory models and algorithms

• Optimization algorithms for pricing of goods – Focus on monopoly pricing problems– How to compute optimal bundles under

limited information? • Stochastic Vehicle Routing Optimization• Game theory models and algorithms to describe

large crowd dynamics in simulation environment

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 7

• Modelling and forecasting of people flow inhigh rise buildings

• Modelling of safe evacuation of people from large burning buildings

ImpactOptimization and game theory models and algorithms

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 8

Where tomorrow?Optimization and game theory models and algorithms

• Development of novel MILP algorithms for vehicle routing problems– Special emphasis on elevator group control– Development of new mathematical concepts based on

problem symmetry– Collaboration with leading research groups in the field,

e.g., HEC Montreal• Development of learning algorithms based on

evolutionary game theory to describe large crowd dynamics– Collaboration with VTT, NIST/USA, Dresden University,

to develop a simulation model for fire safety analysis of large buildings

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 9

Decision Models and Foresight Methodologies

Prof. Ahti SaloGroup: Dr.Tech. Juuso Liesiö Tech.Lic. Antti Punkka, Pekka MildM.Sc. Ville Brummer, Jussi Kangaspunta, Antti Silvast, Antti Toppila, Eeva Vilkkumaa

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 10

• Portfolio decision analysis for allocating resources to non-traded investment opportunities

– Uncertainties Scenarios & robustness

– Multiple criteria Preference modelling– Stakeholders Decision processes – Constraints & dynamics Optimization models– Several resources Efficiency analysis

Research topicsDecision models and foresight methodologies

Theory Method-ologies DecisionsDecision

models

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 11

ImpactDecision models and foresight methodologies

• International research awards (INFORMS)• Major foresight projects

– FinnSight 2015, Strategic Research Agendas

• Resource allocation decisions– National funding plans for road maintenance– Standardization investments at Nokia

• Efficiency analyses– Identification of cost-effective weapons systems– Funding channels and the productivity of research

Aalto University RAE • 10 June 2009 • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis 12

Where tomorrow?Decision models and foresight methodologies

• A world-leader in Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA)– Book to be published by Springer

• Design of information acquisition strategies in project portfolio selection– Relevant to various funding agencies– Collaboration with London Business School

• Portfolio optimization of risk management plans– Collaboration with the University of Southern California