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AAPA Latin America Ports Congress 22-24 June 2011 JW Marriott Lima, Peru Position and Consolidation of the WCSA Hub Vision and Geostrategic Analysis

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Page 1: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

AAPA Latin America Ports Congress

22-24 June 2011

JW Marriott

Lima, Peru

Position and Consolidation of the WCSA Hub – Vision

and Geostrategic Analysis

Page 2: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Main Topics

Economic growth - looking fairly healthy

Shifting trade patterns

WCSA HUB – Which will it be?

Better Logistics – performing like an orchestra

Page 3: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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A Personal Announcement

Page 4: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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(World GDP, Percent change)

The World Economy is still recovering

from the nightmare of 2008-09

Source: IHS Global Insight

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Real GDP Industrial Production

Cargo trade demand reflects more volatile industrial production

Indust. Production, Percent change

Nightmare

Page 5: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Source: IHS Global Insight & Halcrow

Source: Global Insight, Worley Parsons

Real GDP (% change)

The emerging markets have helped to keep the world

from falling into an even deeper recession

and are leading the recovery.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

World Advanced Countries Emerging Countries

Gap between

emerging and

advanced countries

will shrink slightly.

US > Europe, Japan

Page 6: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

NAFTA Other

Americas

Western

Europe

Emerging

Europe

Mideast-

N. Africa

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

Japan Other

Asia-

Pacific

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-20

(Real GDP, percent change)

GDP growth rate differences

affect the pace of trade growth and volumes

by trade partner route

Source: IHS Global Insight & WorleyParsons

Geography of production / consumption is changing as emerging markets

grow 6% on average over the next decade vs. 2.3% for advanced countries.

World’s

Largest

Museum

Page 7: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Fastest-Growing South American Importers from USA

-7

-5-3

-1

1

35

7

9

Bra

zil

Arg

entin

a

Nic

arag

ua

Ven

ezuel

a

Chile

Colo

mbi

aPer

u

Pan

ama

2009 2010 2011

(Real GDP, percent change)

Source: Data and tables from IHS Global Insight, CIA Factbook, OECD, Moody’s, Goldmand Sachs

In Latin America, most countries

are expected to have solid economic growth in 2011.

The Gadhafi Group

Page 8: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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World trade depends on the

strength of the global economy

The World Economic Outlook is for Continued Recovery

The U.S. economy has gained some strength - still bumpy – but will grow faster than Europe or Japan in 2011

Emerging markets will slow a little, but still grow much more rapidly than the developed countries

Commodity prices are increasing – inflation will not be a problem in developed economies (there is still lots of slack), but are a growing concern in the emerging market countries

Interest rates will remain low in the developed countries for a while longer, but keep rising in the big developing countries

Shifting Trade Patterns

Page 9: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

160,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World TEUs will exceed the 2008 numbers this

year. However, the years of double digit growth

(’03, ’04, ’06) are not to be seen again.

The

Nightmare

8.8%

FULL TEUs

2008-10 0.0%

CAGR

0.0%

2010-15 6.6%

2015-30 5.0%

Page 10: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Ocean Container Trade Outlook

Asia – North America container TEU volume growth in 2011 of 8.8% eastbound and 9.1 % westbound is forecasted*.

New big ships are going into Asia-Europe trades with displaced ships moving onto other routes such as N. America. With declining vessel utilization, new capacity has seen transpacific and Asia-Europe spot container rates fall 40 % - 50 % or more since the 2010 peak.

Redeployment of large container vessels, ‘cascading’ onto North – South routes and into other services will add supply, and with reduced load factors will continue to provide pressure for containerization of additional trade.

This supply pressure in the containership sector will continue as the orderbook of new containerships for delivery still represents over 25% of world containership capacity already operating.

* Drewry

Page 11: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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After the BRICs, it’s the CIVETS

Moderate size, dynamic governments open

to foreign investment, looking for free trade

agreements, building on an “export model”

Colombia

Indonesia

Vietnam

Egypt

Turkey

South Africa

Page 12: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Colombia - China has the money

China has increased world trade volumes Now China intends to

change the logistics, too

Lower import costs

Improved logisitcs

China

Colombia

$7.6 billion

A new city near Cartagena

Chinese Development Bank

Operator – China Railway Group

Length – 221km (shorter than

Nica)

A new railway in Colombia?

Page 13: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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There will have to be more inland infrastructure

to connect the mines with the railway.

Page 14: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Short Sea Shipping in MesoAmerica

WorleyParsons is a subcontractor to INECON (Santiago, Chile) to study:*

The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia”

Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region

The optimal routes and ships - to be developed

Streamlining the procedures: customs, port tariffs, etc. among the nine countries

* Subject to successful contract negotiations

Page 15: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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WCSA container trade should be

in line with world TEU growth

WCSA Container Trade

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TE

Us

Imports Exports

2011 2011-15

Imports 6.1% 5.5%

Exports 5.3% 3.6%

Page 16: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Shifting trade patterns –

Asia becomes #1 for WCSA

Share

2011 2015 2015 Vol

Asia 25.3% 28.3% 1,025,213

North America 30.0% 28.7% 1,040,069

Latin America 18.4% 17.9% 646,899

Europe 19.3% 18.3% 661,473

Rest of World 4.2% 4.1% 147,534

India 1.0% 1.1% 39,354

Australia 0.4% 0.4% 13,178

Middle East 0.7% 0.7% 24,777

Africa 0.7% 0.6% 22,922

3,621,420

Partner share of

total full TEUs

Page 17: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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New transpacific services to WCSA

In May 2011, capacity on direct services Asia-WCSA jumped by 20%

New: CSAV, CMA CGM, and CSCL Replace 3 services 2500 – 4500 TEU

New: 4200 to 6500 TEU ships

Maersk is re-activating its AC-3 service

Page 18: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Callao is halfway between Balboa and San Antonio

1,346

NM

1,346

NMSAN ANTONIO

– Serves a large and growing

domestic market

– Well-positioned to be the

preferred transshipment hub on the

WCSA

Page 19: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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10,132 NM direct voyage

Economies of scale from bigger ships

Source: www.netpas.net and WorleyParons and Princeton Consultants Route Costing Model

4000 TEU $731

8000 TEU $590

Saving $141

Cost per TEU

Assumes:

Bunker $400/MT

Charter rate: current

Page 20: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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A Transshipment call in Callao

500NM more

TS Charge = $240

Additional cost of

calling Callao = $163Assumes:

Bunker $400/MT

Charter rate: current

8000 TEU to Callao

4000 TEU feeder

8000

4000

Source: www.netpas.net and WorleyParons and Princeton Consultants Route Costing Model

Page 21: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Multiple calls adds 1,200 NM to the voyage

= 11,327 NM

Source: www.netpas.net and WorleyParons and Princeton Consultants Route Costing Model

4000 TEU $770

8000 TEU $633

Saving $137

Cost per TEU

Assumes:

Bunker $400/MT

Charter rate: current

8000 TEU to Callao

4000 TEU feeder

Page 22: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Transshipping in Callao makes sense

for a number of reasons

1. Can load the ship in Asia with multi-destination cargo

(improve utilization)

2. Can attract cargo from Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile

for the backhaul (improve utilization)

3. Take advantage of the long-haul trans-pacific using large

vessels (PPX).

4. An additional transshipment call in Panama provides a link

to USEC and Europe markets.

Page 23: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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P. CABELLOP. of SPAIN

RIO HAINA

SAN JUAN

CAUCEDO

Caribbean Transshipment Triangle

FREEPORT

COLON/MIT

KINGSTON

CARTAGENA

Some of the Caribbean hubs

are almost at full capacity.

25

At capacity LIMON

Page 24: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Better Logistics –

performing like an orchestra

ORCHESTRATE

COMMUNICATEBuy – Make – Ship - Sell

COLLABORATE

Page 25: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

A Vision Without Execution –

Final thought

is just a Hallucination !

Position and Consolidation of the

WCSA Hub –

Vision and Geostrategic Analysis

Page 26: AAPA Latin America Ports Congress · Chile) to study:* The demand for “transporte maritimo de corta distancia” Existing port infrastructure in the ports in the region The optimal

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Success!!