• 'Extremely active' Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2013. ScienceDaily. RetrievedMay 29, 2013, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130524144951.htm

• Landsea, Christopher W. “The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season:Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts” Monthly Weather ReviewVol. 126, March 18, 1997

• O’Neill, James M. “Another Busy Hurricane Season on Horizon for NJ” May 23, 2013www.northjersey.com

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‘Tis the Season‘Tis the Season

WORDSWORDS TO KNOWTO KNOWHurricane: A severe, rotating, tropical storm with winds equal toor exceeding 74 miles per hour. They are also known as typhoonsand cyclones.Meteorologist: a specialistwho studies processes inthe earth's atmosphere thatcause weather conditions.Saffir-Simpson scale:a 1-5 rating based onthe hurricane's presentintensity.This is used togive an estimate of thepotential property damageand flooding expected alongthe coast from a hurricanelandfall.Atmosphere:The envelopeof gases surrounding the earth oranother planet.Monsoon: A wind from the southwest or south that brings heavyrainfall to southern Asia in the summer.

About the Scientist:About the Scientist:My name is Rachel Shurick and I am a Staff Scientist at the Connecticut ScienceCenter. I have my Bachelors of Science degree in Marine Science. My work at theScience Center includes the writing andfacilitating of science programs for gradespre-k to 12, professional development ofteachers throughout Connecticut basedaround the teaching and understanding ofscience curriculum, and much, much more.Working in informal science education, notonly do I get to teach, but I get to learnsomething new every day from the varietyof students I meet.

Another hurricane season is upon us in the eastern United States. Hurricane seasonspans from June 1st through November 30th, and undoubtedly we will face some stormactivity. Recent devastating storms such as hurricane Sandy and hurricane Irene haveleft many of us feeling unsettled about this time of year. What’s even more unsettling isthat forecasters are predicting an “active or extremely active” season this year. With allof the hurricane talk and predictions that circulate through the news this time of year,many of us may wonder, “How do they know?”

With so many constantly changing factors, forecasting long term weather patterns,such as the outcome of a hurricane season, can be very difficult. Meteorologists relyon clues from the past to help them formulate their predictions. One of these cluescomes all the way from western Africa, where hurricane formation begins. The westernAfrican monsoon season plays a large role in determining how strong our hurricanesin the US will be. A strong monsoon season in this region of Africa provides energy forthe storms and helps create spin up in the atmosphere. During a very heavy monsoonseason in 1995, the Atlantic experienced 11 hurricanes, 5 of which were consideredto be “intense” storms and were a 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. An averagehurricane season usually produces around 5.8 hurricanes.

A strong monsoon season in Africa this year is just one of many clues, however.Another sign that this hurricane season will be an active one is the warmer thanaverage water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Warmerwater temperatures cause rising air flow which leads to lower pressure. Lower pressuresystems help provide energy into the atmosphere due to their upward air movement,which in turn, leads to better hurricane formation. Another factor that plays a large roleon hurricane formation is called El Niño. El Niño is a wind pattern that comes from thePacific Ocean towards South America and can help to suppress hurricane formation inthe Atlantic. This year, El Niño is not expected to be very strong, and therefore, won’tbe able to halt the movement of these storms across the Atlantic, which is one of manyways they gain their energy.

Though the predictions are fairly clear for the strength of this year’s hurricaneseason, what is unclear, as of now, is where these hurricanes will strike. These weatherclues only allow meteorologists to predict storm formation, not storm path, which willbecome more evident as storms begin their east to west movement across the AtlanticOcean and towards North America.

No matter what this hurricane season brings, it’s important to be prepared. Create aplan with your friends and family in case of an emergency, and always follow informationprovided by reliable weather sources such as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and theNational Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To learn more about weatherand climate come visit the Planet Earth exhibit gallery at the Connecticut Science Center!

Written by: Rachel Shurick, Staff Scientist