abrupt climate change look, all i want is something i can believe in. this shouldn’t be a large...

Abrupt Climate Change Look, all I want is something I can believe in. This shouldnt be a large request. -Neva Chonin, SF Chronicle March 4, 2007 Part 4: Global Warming Science and why it doesnt matter.

Who is this man?

Declaration Pro & Con Pragmatic Centrist Global Warming is a Fact Global Warming is a Fact Laws of Thermodynamics Laws of Thermodynamics Sustainable, clean, green industries Sustainable, clean, green industries Peak Oil, Conservation Peak Oil, Conservation Solar & Nuclear Power Solar & Nuclear Power Seed Investment in Clean Technology Seed Investment in Clean Technology Space Exploration Space Exploration Polluters pay! Polluters pay! Open debate Open debate CO2 is NOT a Pollutant CO2 is NOT a Pollutant Runaway Global Warming Runaway Global Warming Against Geo-engineering Against Geo-engineering Monetizing Carbon Credits (Cap & Trade) Monetizing Carbon Credits (Cap & Trade) Destroying Dairy Cattle Destroying Dairy Cattle Genetically Modifying Phytoplankton Genetically Modifying Phytoplankton People pay for pollution People pay for pollution Scientific Censorship Scientific Censorship

Climatology is Eclectic Science! Astronomy orbital mechanics, stellar evolution Astronomy orbital mechanics, stellar evolution Geology Geology Physical Chemistry -Thermodynamics Physical Chemistry -Thermodynamics Nuclear Physics Stable Isotope Analysis Nuclear Physics Stable Isotope Analysis Archaeology Archaeology Marine Biology Marine Biology Dendrochronology Study of Tree Rings Dendrochronology Study of Tree Rings Biochemistry Biochemistry Palynolgy Study of Pollen Palynolgy Study of Pollen Paleontology Paleontology Meteorology Meteorology Vulcanology Study of Volcanoes Vulcanology Study of Volcanoes Plant Physiology Plant Physiology

Keeling Curve

Greenhouse Gases http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

Climate Change

PaleoCO 2 Change

Original Hockey Stick http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/WG1_TAR-FRONT.PDF

Best Evidence http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

CO 2 Emitters 2004 (millions tons) US 21.8% 5,800 China 17.8% 4,732 Russia1,529 Japan 1,215 India 1,103 Germany 849 Canada 551 Italy 462 S. Korea 462 France 387 World 26,583

Evidence for AGW Global Temperatures have risen (~1 O C) & more rapidly than ever recorded Global Temperatures have risen (~1 O C) & more rapidly than ever recorded CO 2 levels have risen & correlate with Industrial Revolution & Population Growth CO 2 levels have risen & correlate with Industrial Revolution & Population Growth Computer Models are predictive Computer Models are predictive Carbon isotope changes are consistent with Fossil Fuel combustion Carbon isotope changes are consistent with Fossil Fuel combustion Most climatologists (& Politicians) agree Most climatologists (& Politicians) agree

Evidence against AGW Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Biological processes are not well described Biological processes are not well described Cloud Interactions parameterized Cloud Interactions parameterized Oceanic Processes not fully characterized Oceanic Processes not fully characterized Solar Variations not accounted for in model Solar Variations not accounted for in model CO 2 Sources and Sinks not completely identified CO 2 Sources and Sinks not completely identified No quantitative data regarding Human Involvement No quantitative data regarding Human Involvement

No one can prove that GW wont happen! Taking into account numerous factors that can affect climate, climatologists can only say that the observed changes are consistent with (though no proof for) the estimated range of climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. - Jan Schloerer Uni Ulm Biometrie & Med.Dokumentation D-89070 Ulm, Germany

Contrary to a commonly held perception, our quantitative knowledge about these emissions is insufficient to satisfy current scientific and policy needs. Gurney, K., et al. (2007), Research Needs for Finely Resolved Fossil Carbon Emissions, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(49), 542.

This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000. Lowell Ponte, The Cooling, 1976

Open Kyoto to debate Sixty scientists call on Harper to revisit the science of global warming. An open letter to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper: As accredited experts in climate and related scientific disciplines, we are writing to propose that balanced, comprehensive public-consultation sessions be held so as to examine the scientific foundation of the federal government's climate- change plans. This would be entirely consistent with your recent commitment to conduct a review of the Kyoto Protocol Special to the Financial Post Published: Thursday, April 06, 2006

My Issues with the Science 1. Thermodynamic Approach Radiative Forcing Radiative Forcing Energy Budget Energy Budget Surface Temperature Assumptions Surface Temperature Assumptions 2. Stable Isotope Analysis 3. CO 2 Lifetimes

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )

In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual. -Galileo Galilei

CO 2 is Essential for Life! Photosynthesis Requires CO 2 Plants make sugars by combining atmospheric CO 2 with water, powered by sunlight Carbohydrates made by plants are fuel for both plant and animal life CO 2 is result of respiration No CO 2 NO LIFE! No H 2 O, No Sun, No life Not a pollutant at low concentrations Lower CO 2 favors C4 Plants higher CO 2 favors C3 Plants

3 Million Years of Glacial Cycles National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Paleoclimatology Program/Department of Commerce

North America Satellite view 12kya

South America Before & After From Quaternary Environmental Networks

Biological Pump Brian N. Popp Professor/Associate Department Chair Dept. of Geology & Geophysics University of Hawaii

Where is the Missing Carbon? Not explained by Physical Properties of the Ocean Not explained by Physical Properties of the Ocean Ocean CO 2 is within 30 ppm of the Atmosphere Ocean CO 2 is within 30 ppm of the Atmosphere Not in the Forests Not in the Forests Must have gone into the Deep Ocean Must have gone into the Deep Ocean Where did the new CO 2 come from? Where did the new CO 2 come from?

CO2 Tied up in Ice Age Glaciers Atmosphere 730 Gt Carbon Atmosphere 730 Gt Carbon Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 m 2 / km 2 Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 m 2 / km 2 Ice Age Area Net (km 2 )2.0 E8 km 2 Ice Age Area Net (km 2 )2.0 E8 km 2 Average Ice Thickness 1000 meters Average Ice Thickness 1000 meters Mass Ice Sheet2 E17 Metric Tons Mass Ice Sheet2 E17 Metric Tons Total Ice Volume2 E17 m 3 Total Ice Volume2 E17 m 3 CO2 200 ppmv CO2 200 ppmv Mass Carbon in CO212/44 Mass Carbon in CO212/44 Total Carbon in Glaciers550,000 GT Total Carbon in Glaciers550,000 GT Minimum Time to form Glacier3,618 yrs (152 GT/year) Minimum Time to form Glacier3,618 yrs (152 GT/year)

Global Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 730 Rocks 66,000,000 Ocean 38,000 Terrestrial 2200 Industrial 5

Atmosphere 730 Gt Atmosphere 730 Gt Human Activities 6-7 GT/Yr Human Activities 6-7 GT/Yr Reabsorbed by Plants/year 2-3 Gt/Yr Reabsorbed by Plants/year 2-3 Gt/Yr Net 4-5 Gt/Yr Net 4-5 Gt/Yr Terrestrial Vegetation 2,200 Gt Terrestrial Vegetation 2,200 Gt Ocean 38,000 Gt Ocean 38,000 Gt Fossil Fuels 3,300 Gt Fossil Fuels 3,300 Gt Limestone & Sediment 66,000,000 Gt Limestone & Sediment 66,000,000 Gt

Precipitation & Carbon Turnover Atmosphere Carbon 730 Gt Atmosphere Carbon 730 Gt Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 Average Precipitation/yr 80 cm/Yr Average Precipitation/yr 80 cm/Yr Total 4 E14 cm 3 /yr Total 4 E14 cm 3 /yr CO2 380 ppmv CO2 380 ppmv Mass CO2/ Mass Carbon155 Gt/42 Gt Mass CO2/ Mass Carbon155 Gt/42 Gt Residence Time (730/42)17.4 yrs Residence Time (730/42)17.4 yrs Half Life (*ln2)12.0 yrs Half Life (*ln2)12.0 yrs % Increase39% % Increase39%

Carbon - Sources and Sinks Atmospheric Increase Gt= Fossil Fuel Emissions Land Use Net Oceanic Uptake Missing Carbon Sink 3.2(+/-0.2)=6.3(+/-0.4)2.2(+/-0.8) (-1.7 +/-0.8) -2.4(+/-0.7) (-1.4 +/-0.8) -TAR -2.9(+/-1.1) Richard Houghton, Senior Scientist, Carbon Research Woods Hole Research

Global Bank of CO2 What if? Banks Net Worth Increase $Billion=DepositsInvest-mentIncomeExpenseTotalRobbery??? $3.2 Billion (+/-0.2)= $6.3 Billion $2.2Billion-$2.4Billion -$2.9 Bn (+/-1.1) What if your Banker showed you these numbers?

14 Carbon in Atmosphere life ~ 12 years Discussion: Reporting and calibration of post-bomb 14C data P. J. Reimer, T. A. Brown, R. W. Reimer October 12, 2004

Calculation of Atmospheric CO 2 Current CO 2 380 ppm 1850 CO 2 280 ppm Life 12 years Man-made CO23.2 GT/year Total for 12 Years38.4 GT Total (Lim =2 x Peak)77 GT Total CO 2 present730 GT (Change 1ppm1.9 Gt) Total CO 2 1850538 GT Difference192 GT Ratio (Anthropogenic)0.40 (40%) Best Data0.15 (15%) Atmospheric lifetime 5 to 200 yr No single lifetime can be defined for CO 2 because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes. IPCC-2001

Effective atmospheric CO 2 lifetime The effective lifetime for CO 2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes. All measurements with different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO 2, only ca. 5 - 6 years. Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998)

My Issues with the Science 1. Thermodynamic Approach Radiative Forcing Radiative Forcing Energy Budget Energy Budget Surface Temperature Assumptions Surface Temperature Assumptions 2. Stable Isotope Analysis 3. If the anthropogenic component is 40% of the total increase, where does the other 60% CO2 come from?

Tracking Carbon- Stable Isotopes Brian N. Popp Professor/Associate Department Chair Dept. of Geology & Geophysics University of Hawaii http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/bpopp.html

Estimates of Monthly CO 2 Emissions and Associated 13C/12C Values from Fossil-Fuel Consumption in the U.S.A. T.J. Blasing and Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335, U.S.A. Christine Broniak Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331-3601 (2004)

13C in CO 2 Alert NWT, Canada C. E. Allison, R. J. Francey, and P. B. Krummel Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Atmospheric Research,

13C in CO 2 Macquarie Island, Australia C. E. Allison, R. J. Francey, and P. B. Krummel Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Atmospheric Research, 13C of Fossil Fuels = -29.5 mil ( o / oo ) Atmosphere = -7.8 to - 8.0 mil Total Change in 13C for period 0.2 mil/10 years Dilution Calculation: Total C = 730 Gt x (8.0-7.8 o / oo )/(29.5-8.0 o / oo ) = 6.8 Gt/10 years Contribution = 0.68 Gt/yr/3.2Gt/yr = 21% of CO2 is Fossil Fuel

My Issues with the Science 1. Thermodynamic Approach Radiative Forcing Radiative Forcing Energy Budget Energy Budget Surface Temperature Assumptions Surface Temperature Assumptions 2. If only 21% of the change in CO 2 C13/C12 ratio can be attributed to fossil fuels, how is this proof that ffs are the major cause of increased CO2 levels? 3. CO 2 Lifetimes

30% Solar Energy Reflected Energy reflected by clouds, dust, surface Energy reflected by clouds, dust, surface Ave. incoming radiation 0.7 x 342 = 240 W m -2

Thermodynamics of GW* ( 1st Law: Higher temp flows to Lower Temp) Cp Air (typical room conditions) Cp Air (typical room conditions) Cp Water (Liquid) Cp Water (Liquid) Cp Water (ice) Cp Water (ice) Density of Air Density of Air Density of Water Density of Water Mass of Atmosphere Mass of Atmosphere Mass of Hydrosphere Mass of Hydrosphere 1.012 (J g1 K1) 1.012 (J g1 K1) 4.181 (J g1 K1) 4.181 (J g1 K1) 2.114 (J g1 K1) 2.114 (J g1 K1) 1.29 g/L 1.29 g/L 1.0 g/ml 1.0 g/ml 5.1 x 10 18 kg 5.1 x 10 18 kg 1.4 x 10 21 kg 1.4 x 10 21 kg *The change in the internal energy of a closed thermodynamic system is equal to the sum of the amount of heat energy supplied to the system and the work done on the system. (2 nd Law)internal energythermodynamic systemheatwork

My Issues with the Science 1. How can a small increase in atmospheric heat energy lead to significantly increased ocean temps and melting Ice Caps? 2. Stable Isotope Analysis 3. CO 2 Lifetimes

The Debate on Global Warming is Over. Scientists say that global warming is "very likely" driven by the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases caused by human activity. By BRYAN WALSH Time Magazine Posted Friday, Feb. 02, 2007

Precautionary Principle Equation Present Actions & Cost ($) = Threat (Future Cost of no Action) x Scientific Likelihood / Years in Future R. K. Pachaury Nobel Laureate Chairman IPCC

Precautionary Principle An ounce of prevention The absence of evidence of harm is not evidence of an absence of harm. Devra Davis Y 2 K Airplanes will fall out of the sky Y 2 K Airplanes will fall out of the sky Pascals Wager Pascals Wager McCarthyism Associating with Communists McCarthyism Associating with Communists Social Darwinism There goes the neighborhood Social Darwinism There goes the neighborhood Cigarette Smoking & Tobacco Science Cigarette Smoking & Tobacco Science DDT & Dioxin, Silent Spring DDT & Dioxin, Silent Spring Freon & Ozone Hole Freon & Ozone Hole X-Ray Shoe Fitting X-Ray Shoe Fitting Thalidomide Thalidomide

Global Warming Costs $48 Trillion = WDP $48 Trillion = WDP $13 Trillion = USA GDP $13 Trillion = USA GDP $7-18 Trillion Cost if nothing done $7-18 Trillion Cost if nothing done $0.07-3 Trillion for Prevention $0.07-3 Trillion for Prevention $200 Billion = Katrina cost or Iraq War/yr $200 Billion = Katrina cost or Iraq War/yr $397.27 my CO 2 cost last year ( https://sustainabletravelinternational.org/) $397.27 my CO 2 cost last year ( https://sustainabletravelinternational.org/)

Global Warming Costs Part 2: New Zealand signed Kyoto (pop. 4.1M) New Zealand signed Kyoto (pop. 4.1M) Reduce CO 2 levels to 1990 in 2012 or pay. Reduce CO 2 levels to 1990 in 2012 or pay. Expected to receive credits of $500M/yr Expected to receive credits of $500M/yr Current Liability NZ$481M/yr est. (US$375M) Current Liability NZ$481M/yr est. (US$375M) 2012 Liability NZ$4.2B (US$3.3B) $780/person 2012 Liability NZ$4.2B (US$3.3B) $780/person http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/ http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/ http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/ http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/ http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/kyoto-cost-revised-down-481-million http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/kyoto-cost-revised-down-481-million

We have to change our behavior. .Al Gore

A Plan without Action is a Daydream; & Action without a Plan is a Nightmare. Jim Sorenson Part 5: A Green Experiment

Climate Forest Parks" 4 billion metric tons of Carbon released into the atmosphere/year 4 billion metric tons of Carbon released into the atmosphere/year 20 Tons C fixed/Acre/year (depends on species) 20 Tons C fixed/Acre/year (depends on species) 360,000 square miles (230M Acres) 360,000 square miles (230M Acres) 600 miles square of forest will fix all of the CO2 released by industries in the world each year for ten years 600 miles square of forest will fix all of the CO2 released by industries in the world each year for ten years 554 M Acres - 1952 -- 749 M acres -2002 (+35%) 554 M Acres - 1952 -- 749 M acres -2002 (+35%) 1.9 B Acres in US (not AK) 1.9 B Acres in US (not AK)

Sustainable Poplar Forest Potlatch Corp, near Umatilla, Oregon

Conclusions There is no Environmental Apocalypse! There is no Environmental Apocalypse! There is a Scientific Debate! There is a Scientific Debate! Precautionary Principle says Science Doesnt Matter Precautionary Principle says Science Doesnt Matter Ocean dynamics are most likely cause of increased CO 2 Ocean dynamics are most likely cause of increased CO 2 Afforestation is an experiment and a solution Afforestation is an experiment and a solution Global Warming is Global Politics Global Warming is Global Politics

Extra Slides follow

Tardis, from Dr. Who The Future

World Population Growth 6.586 Billion (2006)

A Timeline for the next 100 years 20072107471767578777 97 3727 Sea Level Rises 18 Inches ! Iran War Ends Ends 6.9 Mag Earthquake on Hayward Fault on Hayward Fault Social Security Bankrupt Bankrupt TerroristsExplode Dirty Bomb Gasoline @ $12/gal CO2 Credits Worthless Global Temps Decrease - Sea Level up 9 inches Bird Flu Mutates World Population 5 Billion Iran War Starts Starts

A Timeline for the next 100 years 20072107471767578777 97 3727 Sea Level Rises 6 inches 6 inches HIVVaccine Chinese Astronauts Return to the Moon US Life Expectancy >85 years Chromosome Therapy cures Cancer Dark Energy Explained by New Laws of Physics RenewableEnergyDominates Global Temps Decrease - Sea Level up 3 inches End of Global Poverty World Population 5 Billion US Nuclear Power Plant ConstructionResumes

Photosynthesis Requires & Consumes CO 2 Plants make sugars by combining atmospheric CO 2 with water, powered by sunlight: CO 2 + H 2 O + energy CH 2 O + O 2 CO 2 + water + energy carbohydrate + oxygen breathing, decay photosynthesis Increasing CO 2, water and energy will make the chemical reaction go from left to right, making plants produce more carbohydrates. Carbohydrates made by plants are essential for life. Hence CO 2 is: THE GAS OF LIFE !

Sea Level Rise in Tuvalu? http://www.john-daly.com/index.htm

Biological Pump from Planktos

Precession of Solstices and Equinoxes Positions of solstices and equinoxes change through time Positions of solstices and equinoxes change through time Gradually shift position with respect to Earths eccentric orbit and its perihelion and aphelion Earths eccentric orbit and its perihelion and aphelion

The most important thing you can do is to get involved in the political process and get rid of all of these rotten politicians that we have in Washington D.C. -- Who are nothing more than corporate toadies for companies like Exxon and Southern Company, these villainous companies that consistently put their private financial interest ahead of American interest and ahead of the interest of all of humanity. This is treason and we need to start treating them now as traitors. - ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR July 8, 2007 And I will see all of you on the barricades.

Industrial Revolution = Steel Steel Ships Steel Ships Railroads Railroads Buildings Buildings All of this slowly corrodes All of this slowly corrodes

Open-Ocean Iron Enrichment "Give me half a tanker full of iron and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) "Give me half a tanker full of iron and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) Results of fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Results of fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Showed strong biological response and chemical draw- down of CO 2 in the water column But what was the fate of this carbon? Plant uptake of carbon in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton bloom Plant uptake of carbon in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton bloom Grazers respond to the increased food supply Producing a blizzard of fecal pellets that descend through the water column Exporting the carbon to the deep sea

Future Climate Over the next 10K years precession maximize at low latitude Over the next 10K years precession maximize at low latitude Intensify summer monsoons Intensify summer monsoons Tilt should minimize at high N. latitudes Tilt should minimize at high N. latitudes Help promote further glaciations Pattern consistent with glaciations in next few thousand years Pattern consistent with glaciations in next few thousand years Predictions complicated by millennial-scale oscillations and anthropogenic greenhouse gases

Confirming Ice Volume Changes Corals reefs follow sea level and can quantify change in ice volume Corals reefs follow sea level and can quantify change in ice volume Ideal dipstick for sea level Corals grow near sea level Corals grow near sea level Ancient reefs preserved in geologic record Ancient reefs preserved in geologic record Can be dated ( 234 U 230 Th) Can be dated ( 234 U 230 Th) Best sea level records from islands on tectonically stable platforms (e.g., Bermuda) 125,000 year old reefs at 6 m above sea level 125,000 year old reefs at 6 m above sea level Confirms shape of 18 O curve from last 150,000 years Confirms shape of 18 O curve from last 150,000 years

Corals found about 6 meters above present-day sea level Corals formed at 15-20 meters below present-day sea level Lowest level of submerged corals is 120 meters below present-day sea level

18 O records Ice Volume Every 10-m change in sea level produces an ~0.1 change in 18 O of benthic foraminifer Every 10-m change in sea level produces an ~0.1 change in 18 O of benthic foraminifer The age of most prominent 18 O minima Correspond with ages of most prominent reef recording sea level high stands Absolute sea levels estimates from reefs Absolute sea levels estimates from reefs Correspond to shifts in 18 O Reef sea level record agreement with assumption of orbital forcing 125K, 104K and 82K events forced by precession 125K, 104K and 82K events forced by precession

Three Flaws in the Model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Biological processes are not well described Biological processes are not well described Cloud cover is not well characterized Cloud cover is not well characterized Oceanic Processes Oceanic Processes

Orbital Tuning 41,000 and 23,000 year cycles from astronomically dated insolation curves 41,000 and 23,000 year cycles from astronomically dated insolation curves Provide tuning targets Similar cycles embedded in the 18 O ice volume curves are matched and dated Now most accurate way to date marine sediments Now most accurate way to date marine sediments Brian N. Popp Professor/Associate Department Chair Dept. of Geology & Geophysics University of Hawaii 1680 East-West Rd. Honolulu, HI 96822

Peak Deglacial Warmth With atmospheric CO 2 levels steady and high With atmospheric CO 2 levels steady and high Glacial ice largely melted Glacial ice largely melted Summer insolation and vegetation changes affected temperatures Insolation 5% higher warmed high latitudes Insolation 5% higher warmed high latitudes Displacement of high-albedo tundra by low-albedo spruce caused positive feedback Displacement of high-albedo tundra by low-albedo spruce caused positive feedback Greater warming

Physical Oceanographic Changes in CO 2 During glaciations physical properties change During glaciations physical properties change Temperature and salinity Affect solubility of CO 2 (aq) and thus pCO 2 90% of the CO 2 decrease unexplained by physical processes

Changes in Soil Carbon Expansion of ice sheets Expansion of ice sheets Covered or displaced forests Coniferous and deciduous trees Coniferous and deciduous trees Displaced forests replaced by steppes and grasslands Have lower carbon biomass Pollen records in lakes Pollen records in lakes Indicate glacial times were dryer and less vegetated than interglacial Estimates of total vegetation reduced by 25% (15-30%) during glacial maxima Estimates of total vegetation reduced by 25% (15-30%) during glacial maxima CO 2 removed from atmosphere did not go into vegetation on land!

Interglacial-Glacial Change in Carbon At LGM, reduction of carbon occurred in atmosphere, vegetation and soils on land and in surface ocean At LGM, reduction of carbon occurred in atmosphere, vegetation and soils on land and in surface ocean This carbon (1010 gigatons) must have been moved to deep ocean This carbon (1010 gigatons) must have been moved to deep ocean Ice core data indicate atmospheric CO 2 30% lower Ocean mixed layer in equilibrium with atmosphere so it too was lower by 30% Terrestrial vegetation 25% lower Mass balance indicates 2.7% increase in deep ocean

Increase the Ocean Carbon Pump If biological productivity and C org export were higher in surface waters during glacial intervals If biological productivity and C org export were higher in surface waters during glacial intervals Atmospheric CO 2 could be fixed in shallow ocean by phytoplankton Sinking dead organic matter transfers that carbon to the deep ocean Sinking dead organic matter transfers that carbon to the deep ocean Biological productivity and export can only increase if essential nutrients increase in surface ocean Biological productivity and export can only increase if essential nutrients increase in surface ocean Increases in wind-driven upwelling of deep, nutrient-rich water Increases in the nutrient concentration of deep water that is already upwelling

Open-Ocean Iron Enrichment "Give me half a tanker full of iron and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) "Give me half a tanker full of iron and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) Results of fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Results of fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Showed strong biological response and chemical draw- down of CO 2 in the water column But what was the fate of this carbon? Plant uptake of carbon in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton bloom Plant uptake of carbon in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton bloom Grazers respond to the increased food supply Producing a blizzard of fecal pellets that descend through the water column Exporting the carbon to the deep sea

14 Carbon in Atmosphere life about 12 years P. J. Reimer, T. A. Brown, R. W. Reimer October 12, 2004

Temperature and Ice Mass Balance Temperature main factor determining ice growth Temperature main factor determining ice growth Net accumulation or Net ablation Since ablation rate increases rapidly with increasing temperature Since ablation rate increases rapidly with increasing temperature Summer melting controls ice sheet growth Summer insolation must control ice sheet growth

Carbon System Controls on CO 2 Increase biologic carbon pump in coastal and tropical ocean Increase carbon pump in Antarctic Change chemistry of Antarctic surface water Change chemistry of shallow Southern Ocean subsurface water

Productivity Climate Link Biological Pump photosynthesis takes up CO 2 and nutrients, plants eaten by zooplankton, dead zooplankton or excreted matter sinks carrying carbon to sediments Biological Pump photosynthesis takes up CO 2 and nutrients, plants eaten by zooplankton, dead zooplankton or excreted matter sinks carrying carbon to sediments

Export Removal of Carbon For every 1000 carbon atoms taken up by phytoplankton For every 1000 carbon atoms taken up by phytoplankton 50-100 sink below 100 m 50-100 sink below 100 m 10 are exported to depths below 1 km 10 are exported to depths below 1 km Stored for millennia 1 carbon atom is buried in deep sea sediments 1 carbon atom is buried in deep sea sediments Sequestered for eons

Increases in Greenhouse Gases CO 2 increase anthropogenic and seasonal CO 2 increase anthropogenic and seasonal Anthropogenic burning fossil fuels and deforestation Seasonal uptake of CO 2 in N. hemisphere terrestrial vegetation Methane increase anthropogenic Methane increase anthropogenic Rice patties, cows, swamps, termites, biomass burning, fossil fuels, domestic sewage

Paleoclimate Reconstructions Climate varies over different time scales and each periodicity is a manifestation of separate forcing mechanisms Climate varies over different time scales and each periodicity is a manifestation of separate forcing mechanisms Different components of the climate system change and respond to forcing factors at different rates Different components of the climate system change and respond to forcing factors at different rates To understand the role each component plays in the evolution of climate we must have a record longer than the time it takes for the component to undergo significant change To understand the role each component plays in the evolution of climate we must have a record longer than the time it takes for the component to undergo significant change

Proxy Calibration: An Example Emiliania huxleyi is one of 5000 or so species of phytoplankton Emiliania huxleyi is one of 5000 or so species of phytoplankton Most abundant coccolithophore on a global basis, and is extremely widespread Most abundant coccolithophore on a global basis, and is extremely widespread Occurs in all except the polar oceans Produces unique compounds Produces unique compounds C 37 -C 39 di-, tri- and tetraunsaturated methyl and ethyl ketones

Vegetation Vegetation General gradual movement of warm- adapted biomes north General gradual movement of warm- adapted biomes north Pollen records indicate spruce and oak moved north Mid-glacial produced no-analog vegetation Mid-glacial produced no-analog vegetation Mixtures that do not exist today Different response of a particular type of plant to changing climate

Vegetation Vegetation General gradual movement of warm- adapted biomes north General gradual movement of warm- adapted biomes north Pollen records indicate spruce and oak moved north Mid-glacial produced no- analog vegetation Mid-glacial produced no- analog vegetation Mixtures that do not exist today Different response of a particular type of plant to changing climate

Tracking Carbon 13 C values can be used to determine how carbon moved from surface reservoirs to deep ocean Major carbon reservoirs have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon Major carbon reservoirs have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon Each with characteristic 13 C values

Ice Sheet Growth Lags Summer Insolation Ice sheet 3 km thick takes 10,000 years to grow under most favorable conditions Ice sheet 3 km thick takes 10,000 years to grow under most favorable conditions Consequently, lag summer insolation cooling Ice sheet growth maximized Ice sheet growth maximized Well after summer insolation minimum Phase lag Phase lag cycle Growth Growth Ablation Ablation

Glaciers For the 21st century, we expect that surface mass balance changes will dominate the volume response of both ice sheets. A key question is whether ice-dynamical mechanisms could operate which would enhance ice discharge sufficiently to have an appreciable additional effect on sea level rise. For the 21st century, we expect that surface mass balance changes will dominate the volume response of both ice sheets. A key question is whether ice-dynamical mechanisms could operate which would enhance ice discharge sufficiently to have an appreciable additional effect on sea level rise.

Abrupt Climate Change Part 3: A simple answer to Global Warming

14 Carbon isotopes This 2004 article in Nature (Vol. 431, 1084-1087) points out that 14 C values in tree rings have decreased since 11.000 years ago, but the last 2.000 years show an increase, due to solar variability.

Solar Variability

Tim Ball nsrp.com

IPCCs proof of anthropogenic global warming Atmospheric CO 2 increase closely parallels accumulated emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Atmospheric CO 2 increase closely parallels accumulated emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. CO 2 in ice cores show that air CO 2 has increased 21% from 280 til 353 ppm over the last 150 years. CO 2 in ice cores show that air CO 2 has increased 21% from 280 til 353 ppm over the last 150 years. Carbon isotope ratios of 13 C/ 12 C and 14 C/ 12 C have decreased in atmospheric CO 2, they agree qualitatively with expected additions of 12 C from burning of fossil fuel (enriched in 12 C). This implicates that CO 2 has a long lifetime in the Earths atmosphere: rough indication 50 200 years. Carbon isotope ratios of 13 C/ 12 C and 14 C/ 12 C have decreased in atmospheric CO 2, they agree qualitatively with expected additions of 12 C from burning of fossil fuel (enriched in 12 C). This implicates that CO 2 has a long lifetime in the Earths atmosphere: rough indication 50 200 years.

Dry Lake in Death Valley

Nevada >5000 years ago

Tracking Carbon 13 C values can be used to determine how carbon moved from surface reservoirs to deep ocean Major carbon reservoirs have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon Major carbon reservoirs have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon Each with characteristic 13 C values

13 C Changes During Photosynthesis Large KIE during carbon fixation by plants Large KIE during carbon fixation by plants Magnitude depends on C-fixation pathway

Some Major Flaws in the Model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Biological processes are not well described Biological processes are not well described Cloud cover is not well characterized in the Computer Models Cloud cover is not well characterized in the Computer Models Oceanic Processes are not included Oceanic Processes are not included Changes in Solar Activity not included Changes in Solar Activity not included

spectacular facts are hard to beat http://folk.uio.no/tomvs Tom V. Segalstad Head of the Geological Museum, Natural History Museum, University of Oslo http://folk.uio.no/tomvs

IPCCs proofs rejected In a number of publications our research group has rejected IPCCs 3 proofs of anthropogenic warming.

Stable carbon isotopes 13 C/ 12 C isotope ratios are expressed as (delta) values defined as the standard-normalized difference from the standard, expressed as 13 C in per mil (). The reference standard used is PDB (Pee Dee Belemnite). Analysis of carbon isotopes is the only way to directly measure the amount of fossil-fuel-generated CO 2 in the atmosphere. Drawing: Finnigan

Proof from stable carbon isotopes Left: reservoirs found to be in carbon isotopic equilibrium. Burning of biospheric fossil fuel adds 12 C (low 13 C) to the air. 13 C of air in 1988 show ~4% anthropogenic CO 2 in air (right scale shows % mixing). Not 21% as asserted by the IPCC, which would have given air 13 C -11. Figure from Segalstad (1992 & 1996)

Proof from isotopic mass balance Using the radioactive decay equation for the lifetime of CO 2 in air, we can calculate the masses of remaining CO 2 from different reservoirs using isotopic mass balance; checking for match vs. air CO 2 in December 1988: mass = 748 GT C; 13 C = -7.807 (Keeling et al. 1989). Figure from Segalstad (1992)

Proof from isotopic mass balance The calculations confirm that maximum 4% (14 GT C) of the air CO 2 has anthropogenic origin; 96% is indistinguishable from non-fossil-fuel (natural marine and juvenile) sources. Air CO 2 lifetime is ~5 years. ~134 GT C (18%) of air CO 2 is exchanged each year, far more than the ~6 GT C annually released from fossil fuel burning. Figure from Segalstad (1992)

Effective atmospheric CO 2 lifetime The effective lifetime for CO 2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes. All measurements with different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO 2, only ca. 5 - 6 years. Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998)

Exchange times airsea a few years Figure from Rohde (2000)

Proof from isotopic mass balance We also see why the IPCCs rough indication lifetime 50-200 years for atmospheric CO 2 gives an atmosphere which is too light; only 50% of the atmospheric CO 2 mass. This explains why the wrong IPCC model creates the artificial 50% error, nicknamed The Missing Sink. Figure from Segalstad (1992)

Evidence for AGW Atmospheric Temperatures have risen by about 1 O C over the last 150 years Atmospheric Temperatures have risen by about 1 O C over the last 150 years Correlates with CO2 increases in the atmosphere and human population Correlates with CO2 increases in the atmosphere and human population Isotopic (C13/C12) implicates Fossil fuels as the source of CO2 Isotopic (C13/C12) implicates Fossil fuels as the source of CO2 Changes in CO2 are greater than have ever been recorded in prehistory Changes in CO2 are greater than have ever been recorded in prehistory Computer Models are predictive Computer Models are predictive

http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p1845.htm 31,072 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,021 with PhDs

Updated Hockey Stick

AB 32, Calif. Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 Signed by Gov. Schwarzenegger 9/27/2006 Signed by Gov. Schwarzenegger 9/27/2006 Establishes statewide ghg emissions cap for 2020 @ 1990 emissions level Establishes statewide ghg emissions cap for 2020 @ 1990 emissions level Adopt Mandatory reporting rules by Jan. 1, 2009 Adopt Mandatory reporting rules by Jan. 1, 2009 Focus on Cap & Trade Market Focus on Cap & Trade Market Prior to imposing any mandates or market mechanisms, CARB must evaluate impacts on economy, environment etc. etc. Prior to imposing any mandates or market mechanisms, CARB must evaluate impacts on economy, environment etc. etc.

Ocean Floor CO2 40,000 km (40,000,000m 40,000 km (40,000,000m 2 cm/year (.02M) 2 cm/year (.02M) 100km Deep 100km Deep 500m 500m

Lthi, D., M. Le Floch, B. Bereiter, T. Blunier, J.-M. Barnola, U. Siegenthaler, D. Raynaud, J. Jouzel, H. Fischer, K. Kawamura, and T.F. Stocker. 2008. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present. Nature, Vol. 453, pp. 379-382, 15 May 2008. doi:10.1038/nature06949

abrupt climate change look, all i want is something i can believe in. this shouldn’t be a large...

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