Building an industrial strength global aviation and suborbital radiation monitoring capability

W. Kent Tobiska, D. Bouwer, L. Didkovsky, B. Gersey, J. Bailey, K. Judge, S. Wieman, S. Bristow, V. Gupta, K. Wahl Space Environment Technologies

ABSTRACT. The aviation radiation monitoring community has made significant stridesin building an industrial strength, global aviation radiation monitoring capability. Wedescribe efforts in three major areas that are enabling an absorbed dose exposurehazard from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere to be provided forthe current epoch and forecast time frames. These include: 1) data collection inmultiple altitude, magnetic latitude and time scale domains; 2) data assimilation intophysics-based models and quantifying the uncertainty through ensemble andmachine-learned modeling; and 3) dose parameter and related space weatherinformation distribution, publicly and widely, via the Automated RadiationMeasurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) iOS app. We identify the metrics (goalsand thresholds) that are needed for global aviation and suborbital radiationmonitoring and discuss the existing state-of-art in characterizing this environment forcommercial and government users. Finally, we provide an update to unique scienceissues related to better understanding the sources of observed excessive radiation athigh latitudes but unconnected to traditional galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or solarenergetic particles (SEP) activity. We associate them with Relativistic ElectronPrecipitation events in the sub auroral regions.

ktobiska@spacewx.com Space Environment Technologies https://spacewx.com

NAIRAS

Data AssimilationABSTRACT Information Distribution

http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~ARMAS/index.html

ARMAS AND RADIAN PROGRESS TO DATE:Three relevant radiation sources recognized1. GCRs – galactic cosmic rays are ubiquitous and isotopic around the planet;

modulated by solar cycle2. SEPs – solar energetic particles are rare and event driven by CMEs and IMF shocks

(NOT OBSERVED)3. REPs – relativistic electron precipitation is frequent in subauroral zones during all

geomagnetic conditionsBaseline measurements accomplished• 35 ARMAS instruments now span 9 generations• Greater than 3/4 million 10-second data records between 2013–2021• Altitude range from surface to 107 km• Magnetic latitudes +80 to -80 degrees and all longitudes• Solar cycle 24 maximum (2013) to minimum (2019)• No SEPs or large geomagnetic storms observed (>G2)Instrument beamline, flight and model comparisons accomplished• ARMAS FM5 and TEPC flown together across CONUS on multiple flights• ARMAS and NAIRAS baselines comparedHEALTH IMPLICATIONS: 3 tissue susceptibilities from atmospheric radiation exposure• Deep tissue – heavy ions above 30 km (commercial space)• Deep tissue – protons and neutrons (commercial air travel regimes)• Surface tissue – gamma-rays and X-rays (commercial air travel regimes)Conclusion: commercial crew and passengers get 10-25% more dose on northern CONUS, North Atlantic and North Pacific routes than expected from GCRs, perhaps due to radiation derived from REP events.

PUBLICATION REFERENCES:Gersey, B., W. K. Tobiska, W. Atwell, D. Bouwer, L. Didkovsky, K. Judge, S. Wieman, and R. Wilkins

(2020), Beamline and Flight Comparisons of the ARMAS Flight Module with the Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter for Improving Atmospheric Radiation Monitoring Accuracy, Space Weather Journal, 18, e2020SW002599, doi:10.1029/2020SW002599

Zheng, Y., N. Yu. Ganushkina, P. Jiggens, I. Jun, M. Meier, J. I. Minow, T. P. O’Brien, D. Pitchford, Y. Shprits, W. K. Tobiska, M. A. Xapsos, T. B. Guild, J. E. Mazur, and M. M. Kuznetsova (2019), Space radiation and plasma effects on satellites and aviation: Quantities and metrics for tracking performance of space weather environment models, Space Weather, 17. doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002042.

Tobiska, W. K., L. Didkovsky, K. Judge, D. Bouwer, S. Wieman, B. Gersey, B. Atwell, and R. Wilkins (2019), ARMAS Flight System for Operational Aerospace Radiation Measurements, 49th International Conference on Environmental Systems, 7-11 July 2019, Boston, Massachusetts, ICES-2019-406.

Tobiska, W.K., L. Didkovsky, K. Judge, S. Weiman, D. Bouwer, J. Bailey, B. Atwell, M. Maskrey, C. Mertens, Y. Zheng, M. Shea, D. Smart, B. Gersey, R. Wilkins, D. Bell, L. Gardner, and R. Fuschino(2018), Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment based on Model and Measurement Databases, Space Weather, 16, (10), 1523–1538, doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001843.

Tobiska, W.K., M.M. Meier, D, Matthiae, and K. Copeland (2017), Characterizing the Variation in Atmospheric Radiation at Aviation Altitudes, Extreme Events in Geospace, ed., N. Buzulukova, Elsevier, pp. 453–471, SBN: 9780128127001.

Tobiska, W.K., D. Bouwer, D. Smart, M. Shea, J. Bailey, L. Didkovsky, K. Judge, H. Garrett, W. Atwell, B. Gersey, R. Wilkins, D. Rice, R. Schunk, D. Bell, C. Mertens, X. Xu, M. Wiltberger, S. Wiley, E. Teets, B. Jones, S. Hong, and K. Yoon (2016), Global Real-time Dose Measurements Using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system, Space Weather, 14, doi:10.1002/2016SW001419.

Tobiska, W.K., W. Atwell, P. Beck, E. Benton, K. Copeland, C. Dyer, B. Gersey, I. Getley, A. Hands, M. Holland, S. Hong, J. Hwang, B. Jones, K. Malone, M.M. Meier, C. Mertens, T. Phillips, K. Ryden, N. Schwadron, S.A. Wender, R. Wilkins, and M.A. Xapsos (2015), Advances in Atmospheric Radiation Measurements and Modeling Needed to Improve Air Safety, Space Weather, 13, 202–210, doi:10.1002/2015SW001169, 2015.

NEAR-TERM ACTIVITIES:ARMAS Dual Monitor flights at top of atmosphere and for long duration• ARMAS FM8 on TAGSAT2 satellite June 2021• ARMAS FM9 on ISS December 2021• AFMAS FM5 on World View Enterprises balloon July 2022Modeling• NAIRAS v2 inclusion of ORBIS relativistic electrons trapped particles• CARI-7 model runs to help characterize ensemble uncertainties in modeling

Data Collection

(e)(h)

(f)

(g)

Improving measurement domains:785 ARMAS Flights from 0-107 km in 2013–2021

üAgency and Commercial Aircraft with ARMASü AFRC: DC-8 (a), ER-2 (d), G-III, SOFIA (B747)ü NOAA: G-IV (b)ü NSF: G-V (c)ü FAA: Bombardier Global 5000ü Commercial:

• Boeing 737, 747, 757, and 777• Airbus 319 and 320 • Bombardier Q200

• CRJ 200, 700; Embraer 175

üBalloonsü World View Enterprises: Stratollite (f)

üNASA space stations• ISS (Low Earth Orbit)o Gateway (Lunar Orbit)

üProprietary vehiclesü Perlan Stratospheric glider (e)ü Virgin Galactic SS2 and WK2 (g)ü Blue Origin New Shepard (h)• Cubesato Lunar lander

Original NAIRAS v2 Corrected NAIRAS v2

Original NAIRAS v2 plus ARMAS v10.21

Corrected NAIRAS v2 plus ARMAS v10.21

ARMAS v10.28 data is now being assimilated into NAIRAS v2Height-dependent optimal interpolation solution is used

R2 comparison results:• ARMAS vs. NAIRAS

66.9%• ARMAS vs. corrected NAIRAS

80.1% • Low Pass ARMAS vs. NAIRAS

75.4%• Low Pass ARMAS vs. corrected

NAIRAS87.6%

Public users access global radiation through the ARMAS iOS app:

Commercial users access radiation monitoring through SET’s servers :

SEE RELATED SWW POSTERS:1. ROENTGEN: Wei Xu – relativistic electron atmospheric precipitation2. ORBIS: Jacob Bortnik – relativistic electron physics3. ORBIS: Xiangning Chu – relativistic electron neural net modeling

Customer data need Java servlet request RADIAN data cube processing

Output data created

Customer data receipt Java servlet delivery

1 second roundtrip latency

7 second roundtrip latency