academy #8 technical analysis speakers: charles & daniel
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Academy #8 Technical Analysis Speakers: Charles & Daniel. Get connected to B&R Beurs @. Introduction. Charles-Antoine Bory Board member + chairman Audacity Swiss: good with other people’s money Many years of investment experience Daniel Göttmann Chairman STCM - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Academy #8Technical Analysis
Speakers: Charles & Daniel
Get connected to B&R Beurs @
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Introduction Charles-Antoine Bory
◦ Board member + chairman Audacity◦ Swiss: good with other people’s money◦ Many years of investment experience
Daniel Göttmann◦ Chairman STCM◦ German: paying the bill in a few years◦ Many years of investment experience
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Content Introduction Volatility Charts Basic patterns Trend indicators Momentum indicators Advanced chart patterns Links Conclusion
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What is technical analysis? Graphical analysis
“In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis discipline used for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.” Wikipedia
Technical analysis is more concerned with finding cues about the market micro structure!
Belief that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performance.
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Technical vs Fundamental Never forget your fundamental analysis!
Use technical analysis as complement
Combination is the key!
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Why is it important? Identifying securities to buy/sell
Timing of buy and sell orders
Drawing in your professional life
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Volatility Volatility is a measure for the variation of
the price of a financial instrument over time◦ Standard deviation◦ A higher volatility implies a riskier asset◦ Volatility varies over time◦ Volatility typically high in bear markets
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Volatility Negatively correlated with price
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Volatility Stocks: volatility goes up, as prices go down Implication for options? Want to trade volatility? Use the VIX
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Chart Types: Line Charts
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Chart Types: OHLC
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Chart Types: Candle Sticks
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Basic Patterns
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Patterns: Support Price level at which demand is thought to be
strong enough to prevent the price from declining further
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Patterns: Resistance Price level at which selling it thought to be
strong enough to prevent the price from rising further
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Patterns: Change in polarity principle Resistance becomes support (and vice-
versa)
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Patterns: Trend
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Patterns: Triple Bottom Buy signal at (3)
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Patterns: Triple Top Sell signal at (3)
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TrendIndicators
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Trend: SMA
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Trend: SMA
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Trend: SMA
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Trend: SMA Golden Cross: fast moving average crosses
slow moving average from below◦ Buy signal!◦ Typically comes with high trading volumes
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Trend: SMA Dead Cross: fast moving average crosses
slow moving average from top◦ Sell signal!
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Trend: Bollinger Bands 1 moving average (e.g. 20 days) +/- 1 standard
deviation Bands as support/resistance Adjusts to market conditions Contains ~88% of price movements
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Trend: MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD=12d EMA – 26d EMA, 9d EMA (signal line) Trend + momentum Crossover
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MomentumIndicators
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Momentum: RSI Relative Strength Index 0<RSI<100 RSI>70 => overbought (=> sell) RSI<30 => oversold (=> buy)
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Momentum: Stochastic Oscillator Similar to RSI Used to forsee reversal 20<STO<80
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Momentum: other Rate of Change (ROC) Commodity Channel Index (CCI) StochRSI TIX Ulitmate Oscillator (ULT) Aroon[…]
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Advanced Chart Patterns
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Patterns: Candle patterns
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Patterns: Head & Shoulder Most reliable trend-reversal pattern
◦ Detectable by volume peaks1. Rises to a peak and subsequently declines.2. The price rises above the former peak and again
declines.3. Price rises again, but not to the second peak,
and declines once more.
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Patterns: Triangles Ascending Descending Use a price range
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Questions?
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Volume The more volume the better
◦ Lower transaction costs (bid-ask spread)
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What is happening?
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What is happening?
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What is happening?
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What is happening?
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Recommended websites Investopedia.com
◦ To lookup easy definitions
Bloomberg.com◦ Click on “Index Chart” -> “Overlay” / “Indicators”
Stockcharts.com◦ Perform technical analysis easily◦ Explanation for each indicator◦ All indicators available
Chartgame.com◦ Test your knowledge and predictions!
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Conclusion Always combine many indicators at the same
time◦ Avoid multicollinearity◦ E.g. Candle sticks + Volatility + Volume + SMA +
MACD + RSI
Focus on liquid stocks
Always use it as a complementary tool to fundamental analysis
Now, impress your investment group!
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Thank you for your attention! Next B&R Beurs events:
◦ 13/12 at 9pm: Social drink @ Sus&Co◦ 15/12: Deadline ABN Amro Turbo Assignment◦ 10/01: New Year’s drink (Champagne!!)