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TRANSCRIPT
Simon F Pickup
Marketing Operations Director, Airbus Americas
ACC / BAG Global Business Summit
Growing HorizonsAirbus - Global Market Forecast2017 - 2036
Month 20XX Use Tab 'Insert - Header & Footer' for Presentation Title - Siglum - Reference
Presentation content
Global economy/airline industry status
How we make the forecast: video infographic
Global Market Forecast highlights
Focus on the USA and Europe
Air transport growing faster than GDP
Pax: +7.5%
Cargo: +9.5%
GDP: +3.1%
Source: Traffic: IATA early estimation, TBC
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Passenger capacity growth, by world regionDecember 2017 data
US AIRLINES (~20% of capacity) WESTERN EUROPEAN AIRLINES (~20% of capacity)
ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)EMERGING ECONOMIES* AIRLINES (~40% of capacity)
2015 2016 2017 2018
REST OF WORLD AIRLINES (~20% of capacity)
Source: OAG, * 54 emerging economies, Airbus
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)
2015 2016 2017 2018
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)
2015 2016 2017 2018
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)
2015 2016 2017 2018
Dec. passenger capacity up
8.0%
Dec. passenger capacity up
1.4%
Dec. passenger capacity up
7.8%
Dec. passenger capacity up
3.7%
Profitability forecast for 2018 – but vigilance needed as we look ahead
$38.4
billion
2018 IATA
net profit forecast
Fuel prices
Labor costs and
shortages
Exchange rates GeopoliticsTrade tensions
Terrorism
Infrastructure bottlenecks
Protectionism
Extreme
weather
Growing HorizonsGlobal Market Forecast2017 - 2036
pdf content and
Excel spreadsheets
www.airbus.com
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF
8
World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)Oil Crisis Gulf WarOil Crisis
AsianCrisis 9/11 SARS
GlobalFinancial
Crisis
x2since 9/11
+60%growth over the
last 10 years
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Traffic doubles every 15 years
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
9
World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
x2
x2
x2
Airbus GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a.ICAO total traffic
4 minute video infographic on how we make the GMF
10
ADD VIDEO in situ
Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes)
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
11
World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036
RPK (trillions) 7.0 16.5
Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,890 40,120
New passenger aircraft deliveries
34,166
Dedicated Freighters 1,610 2,410
New freighter aircraft deliveries
733
% change
2016-2036
+135%
+112%
+50%
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)Source: Airbus GMF 2017
20-year demand from all OEMs
24,800single-aisle aircraft
8,700twin-aisle aircraft
1,400very large aircraft
Almost 35,000new passenger and freighter aircraft with a market valueof $5.3 trillion
Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
13
Number of aircraft
24,810
8,690
1,410
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft
% units 71% 25% 4%
% value 46% 44% 10%
Passenger aircraft demand by neutral seating capacity
Source: Airbus
GMF
14
20 year new deliveries
1,297
3,157
7,404
8,353
4,596
2,694 2,789
1,5661,126 1,184
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+
US$ 2.4 trillion US$ 2.2 trillionUS$
0.5 trillion
Global passenger and cargo fleet in-service evolution
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
15
Number of aircraft*
20,500
7,630
12,870
22,030
34,900
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries
20-year
new deliveries
Replacement (37%)
Growth (63%)
Stay
42,530
16
Regions ranked by fleet percentage growth 2017-2036:
1) Middle East
2) Asia-Pacific
3) Africa
4) Latin America
5) CIS
6) Europe
7) North America
Asia-Pacific dominates global fleet in 20 years
Fleet (units) (Percentages refer to unit growth 2017->2036)
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,0002036
2017
+169%
+146%+111% +156%
+171%
+43%
+73%
Global passenger fleet in-service by region evolution
Demand for passenger aircraft by region and aircraft size category
Source: Airbus GMF17
Pie charts show the relative demand of Single-Aisle (blue), Twin Aisle (silver) and VLA (red) in a given region
85%
14%
1%
5,620 a/c (16%)
77%
21%
2%
6,820 a/c (20%)
69%
27%
4%
14,280 a/c (41%)
78%
21%
2,670 a/c (8%)
1%
781 828 850 865 859
73 144 216 322 456501
981
1,822
2,695
3,624
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1996e** 2006 2016 2026 2036
Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years
Rounded total to nearest 50
* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2016 prices
** Estimate for 1996 split by region
Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF
18
People in Middle Class* (million)
Emerging countries
Developing countries
Advanced countries
8,900
56%
World Population (M.)
% of world population
8,200
47%
7,430
39%
6,600
30%
5,820
23%
Forecast
4,950
3,900
2,900
1,950
1,350
~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016…
Source: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 201719
2016 trips per capita
2016 real GDP per capita(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
Africa
Asia/Pacific
CIS
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
India, 2016
0.1 trips per capita
India, 2016
0.1 trips per capita
China, 2016
0.4 trips per capita
United States, 2016
1.8 trips per capita
Bubble size proportional to population
… in 2036, it will be 83% of the population in emerging countries
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 201720
Africa
Asia/Pacific
CIS
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2036 trips per capita
2036 real GDP per capita(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
India, 2036
0.4 trips per capita
China, 2036
1.3 trips per capita
United States, 2036
2.5 trips per capita
Bubble size proportional to population
Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance
Source: Airbus GMF 201721
Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Share of
2036 RPKs
38%
21%
16%
13%
5%
4%
3%
2016 traffic 2017-2036 traffic
Share of
2016 RPKs
30%
26%
22%
10%
5%
4%
3%
Domestic Chinese traffic will overtake the US domestic industry
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
22
Annual traffic per leg flow
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
South America - USA
Intra-Middle East
Domestic Brazil
Asia Developped - PRC
Asia Developped - Asia Emerging
Western Europe - South America
Central Europe - Western Europe
Western Europe - PRC
Asia Emerging - PRC
Asia Emerging - Middle East
PRC - USA
Domestic India
Indian Subcontinent - Middle East
Middle East - USA
Domestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - Middle East
Intra-Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Domestic USA
Domestic PRC
Trillions RPKs
2016
2036
x3.6x1.5
x1.8x1.6
x2.5x3.7
x4.5x3.4
x5.4x3.6
x3.4x3.8
x2.2x2.6
x2.0x2.5x3.0x2.6x3.1x2.3
Traffic between emerging markets will represent a higher share of world traffic
Source: Airbus 2017 GMF23
Traffic share (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2036
Advanced-Advanced
Advanced-Emerging
Emerging-Emerging
41%28%
30%32%
40%29%
CAGR: 2.5%
CAGR: 4.8%
CAGR: 6.2%
United States2017 - 2036
Inter-regional markets from/to US forecast to grow at 4.0% p.a.O&D passenger traffic forecast – 2016-2036 CAGR from/to/within USA
4.8%
Africa
1.8%
Domestic & Intra-
Regional North America
5.0%
Asia-Pacific
4.4%
CIS
3.8%
Europe
3.6%
Latin America
6.6%
Middle East
Africa
4.9%
Asia-Pacific
5.0%
CIS
4.5%
Europe
4.0%
Latin America
3.5%
Middle East
6.8%
2.5%
4.0%
1.8%
Total
International
Domestic
North America
2.0%
O&D: Origin and destination
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Domestic USA
1.8%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
South Africa - USA, x2.7
North Africa - USA, x2.5
Russia - USA, x2.4
CIS - USA, x2.4
Sub-Saharan Africa - USA, x2.6
Pacific Australia/New-Zealand - USA, x1.9
Central Europe - USA, x2.4
Asia Emerging - USA, x2.6
Central America - USA, x2.3
Indian Subcontinent - USA, x3.4
Middle East - USA, x3.7
Asia Developed - USA, x2.2
PRC - USA, x3.3
Canada - USA, x1.5
Caribbean - USA, x1.7
South America - USA, x2.3
Mexico - USA, x2
Western Europe - USA, x2.2
Domestic USA, x1.4
Million passengers
2016
Additional traffic in 2036
Almost 70% of US traffic growth will come from the top 3 regional-pairs
Source: Airbus GMF 201726
TOP O&D passengers traffic flows from/to/within USARatio
2036 vs. 2016
US - There are currently 11 Aviation Mega-Cities
Source: Oxford Economics, Sabre, Airbus GMF 201727
• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers
11Aviation
Mega-cities
190kDaily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic to/
from/via Mega-Cities
95%of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
Mega-Cities
2016 Aviation Mega-Cities
US - There will be 16 Aviation Mega-Cities by 2036
Source: Oxford Economics, Sabre, Airbus GMF 201728
2036 Aviation Mega-Cities
• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers
16Aviation
Mega-cities
400kDaily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic to/
from/via Mega-Cities
98%of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
Mega-Cities
+ 5
x 2.1
+ 3%
Europe2017 - 2036
Inter-regional markets from/to Europe forecast to grow at 4.1% p.a.O&D passenger traffic forecast – 2016-2036 CAGR from/to/within Europe
North America
3.8%
Middle East
4.2%
Latin America
3.3%
Africa
4.4%
Domestic & Intra-
Regional Europe
2.7%
Asia-Pacific
4.3%
CIS
4.1%
3.2%
4.1%
2.7%
Total
Inter-regional
Domestic & Intra-regional
O&D: Origin and destination
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
More than 50% of European traffic growth coming from the yop 3 regional pairs
Source: Airbus GMF 201731
TOP 20 O&D passengers traffic flows from/to/within Europe
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Central Europe - Russia, x2.1
Central Europe - USA, x2.4
Caribbean - Western Europe, x1.8
Central Europe - Middle East, x3.5
Western Europe - Pacific Australia/New-Zealand, x2.2
CIS - Western Europe, x2.4
Canada - Western Europe, x1.6
Asia Developed - Western Europe, x1.8
Western Europe - Indian Subcontinent, x2.2
Western Europe - South America, x1.9
Sub-Saharan Africa - Western Europe, x2.3
Western Europe - Russia, x2.2
Western Europe - PRC, x2.7
Asia Emerging - Western Europe, x2.5
Western Europe - North Africa, x2.3
Western Europe - Middle East, x2.2
Western Europe - USA, x2.2
Domestic Western Europe, x1.4
Central Europe - Western Europe, x2.5
Western Europe - Western Europe, x1.6
Million passengers
2016
Additional traffic in 2036
Ratio
2036 vs. 2016
Highest traffic growth from/to/within Europe will be on inter-regional flowsLeg RPK traffic forecast – 2016-2036 CAGR from/to/within Europe
2.9%
North America4.7%
Middle East
3.3%
Latin America
3.5%
Africa
2.9%
Domestic & Intra-
Regional Europe
3.3%
Asia-Pacific
3.9%
CIS
3.3%
3.5%
2.9%
Total
Inter-regional
Domestic & Intra-regional
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Europe - There are currently 12 Aviation Mega-Cities
Source: Oxford Economics, Sabre, Airbus GMF 201733
• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers
12Aviation
Mega-cities
300kDaily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic to/
from/via Mega-Cities
96%of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
Mega-Cities
2016 Aviation Mega-Cities
Europe - There will be 22 Aviation Mega-Cities by 2036
Source: Oxford Economics, Sabre, Airbus GMF 201734
2036 Aviation Mega-Cities
• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers
• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers
22Aviation
Mega-cities
600kDaily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic to/
from/via Mega-Cities
99%of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
Mega-Cities
+ 10
x 2
+ 3%