acc ltd : sell

October 7, 2010

www.fullertonsecurities.co.in Page | 1

ACC LTD SELL

• ACC Ltd, a Switzerland based Holcim group company, is currently the second largest

cement manufacturer of the country with a capacity of 27.1mtpa after the recent merger

of Ultratech Cement.

• Of the total capacity, southern region accounts for 39%, while the northern, eastern,

central and western regions account for the remaining 21%, 19%, 17% and 4%

respectively.

• Volume growth for the company would be led by higher capacity utilization at the 2.7mt

and 1.1mt of incremental capacity commissioned in Karnataka and Orissa, respectively,

during the last 6-9 months.

• ACC plans to commission power generation capacity of 90MW during 2010 which would

increase the total captive power generation capacity to 346MW by CY2010 increasing the

use of captive power from current 70% to nearly 80% by CY11.

• The company has a strong balance sheet with debt-equity ratio of 0.1 and net cash of Rs

13bn as on December 2009, which would enable smooth funding for its expansion plans

and inorganic growth opportunities.

• We estimate ACC Ltd’s revenues to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% over CY2009-11 to Rs 98.3bn

by CY2011. We also estimate that PAT would decline to Rs 13bn in CY2011 from Rs 15.6bn

in CY2009.

Based on an average of CY11E consolidated EV/EBITDA multiple of 6 and an

EV/ tonne of USD 120, the fair value for the company works out to Rs 859.

Recommendations <= 1 year 1 - 2 yrs 2 - 5 yrs

Strong Buy

Buy

Hold

Reduce

SellStrong Buy – Expected Returns > 20% p.a.

Buy – Expected Returns from 10 to 20% p.a.

Hold – Expected Returns from 0 % to 10% p.a.

Reduce – Expected Returns from 0 % to 10% p.a. with possible downside

risk

Sell – Returns < 0 %

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sensex ACC

STOCK DATABSE / NSE Code

Bloomberg Code

No. of Shares (Mn)

Sensex / Nifty

PRICE DATA

CMP Rs (6th Oct'10)

Beta

Market Cap (Rs mn)

52 Week High-low

Average Daily Volume

STOCK RETURN (%)

30D 3M 6M 1Y

ACC 14% 20% 8% 28%

Sensex 11% 17% 15% 21%

Nifty 11% 17% 15% 23%

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)Promoter

Institution

Non Institution

Total

1 Year Price Performance (Rel. to Sensex)

33.5

20.3

100.0

0.65

192,734

1039 - 686

88,836

46.2

500410/ ACC

ACC IN EQUITY

187.74

20,543 / 6,186

1,026.6

Financial SnapshotProjections (Rs Mn) CY07A CY08A CY09A CY10E CY11E

Revenue 69,408 75,641 83,904 96,396 98,300

Y-o-Y Growth % 20.4% 9.0% 10.9% 14.9% 2.0%

EBIDTA 23,130 19,853 27,285 29,298 26,155

Y-o-Y Growth % 17.1% -14.2% 37.4% 7.4% -10.7%

PAT 14,275 10,996 15,639 16,395 13,314

Y-o-Y Growth % 15.1% -23.0% 42.2% 4.8% -18.8%

EPS Rs 72.5 55.1 79.3 87.3 70.9

BVPS Rs 221.6 256.8 312.3 400.0 470.9

EBIDTA % 33.3% 26.2% 32.5% 30.4% 26.6%

NPM % 20.6% 14.5% 18.6% 17.0% 13.5%

ROE % 32.7% 21.5% 25.4% 21.8% 15.1%

PER x 11.8 14.5

P/B Ratio 2.6 2.2

* Y/E December

October 7, 2010


ACC Ltd was established in 1939 as a result of a merger between ten cement companies belonging to prominent group

like Tata, Khatau's, Killick Nixon and F E Din Shaw group. In 2000, Ambuja Cement acquired the stake held by the Tata's and subsequently became the single largest shareholder in ACC. In 2005, ACC became part of the Swiss major Holcim Group

which had acquired the management control of Ambuja Cement.

The company's operations are spread throughout the country with 16 modern cement factories, more than 40 Ready

mix concrete plants, 20 sales offices, and several zonal offices. It has a workforce of about 9,000 persons and a countrywide

distribution network of over 9,000 dealers. In order to focus on the core cement operations, ACC has over the years exited

from the refractory business and divested its interest in various subsidiaries. With an operational capacity of 27.1mt, it is

currently the second largest cement manufacturer in India after the recently merged Ultratech Cement. Nearly 60% of the

capacities are in the southern & northern region while it has the lowest exposure in the western market. It operates under

the ACC brand which is well established and commands a premium over regional brands. The company has also been

acquiring stakes in smaller companies like 45% stake in Asian Cement (0.3mt) and 100% stake in Encore Cement (0.2mt).

ACC’s current capacity of 27mtpa is expected to reach 30.7mt by the end of CY10. Volume growth expected on stabilization of the recent capacity addition

Expansion to lead to higher volume growth in the near-term ….

ACC’s expansion at Chanda in Maharashtra, where the company is setting up a 3mtpa plant along with a 25MW

power plant for captive consumption is scheduled to be commissioned in Q4 CY10. The recently commissioned 1.1mt

unit at Orissa in Q4 CY09 and 2.7mt Karnataka grinding capacities in Q1 CY10 are expected to stabilize in a few months.

The remaining phase of the Karnataka programme including additional captive power generation capacity of 50

MW is expected to be completed by mid 2010. This, with the 15MW CPP at Bagarh plant will take the total captive

power capacity to 346MW, which would cater to nearly 80% power requirements of the company. We estimate the

total capex on these projects to be at Rs 28bn by the end of CY11.

BUSINESS PROFILE

39%

22%

19%

4%

16%

Current Capacity Break-up

South India North India East India

West India Central India

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Cap

acity (m

tpa)

Annual Capacity Growth

Cement Capacity

October 7, 2010


Dispatches to touch 25mt in CY11…. The consolidated revenue during the year ended December 2009 rose 10.9% to Rs 83.9bn as compared to the previous

year ended December 2008. The sales volume grew marginally by 2.6% on a year-on-year basis. The EBITDA margin in

2009 was 32.5%, as against 26.2% in 2008, enabled by a combination of factors including higher prices and cost controls.

The net profit after tax increased 42% to Rs 15.6bn during the year ended December 2009. During H1CY10, the

consolidated revenue increased by just 1% to Rs 44bn as compared to the same period last year as inadequate availability

of railway wagons lead the volumes lower by 3% to 10.85mt during the period.

Total Income to touch Rs 100bn in CY11 Cement stocks trading at a significant premium to their replacement costs

Peer Comparison

We believe that the recent run-up in the cement stocks on account of cement price hikes (post monsoon) is

unwarranted as the industry is still going through a scenario where oversupply concerns and rising input costs, led by

higher coal prices and freight charges would keep realizations and margins under pressure. At current price levels, the

large companies (representing the Holcim & Aditya Birla Group, which together controls nearly 40% of the Indian cement

industry) are trading significantly higher than replacement cost of USD 110-120.

BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Margins(%

)

Revenues (Rs mn)

Annual Revenues & Margins

Revenue (Rs mn) PAT Margins EBITDA Margins

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19500

20000

20500

21000

21500

22000

22500

23000

Margins(%

)

Revenues (Rs mn)

Quarterly Performance

Net Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA Margins

Peer Group Comparison

CompaniesRevenue

(Rs. mn)

EBIDTA

Margin (%)

PAT Margin

(%)

EV

($/tonne)

P/E

(x)

P/B

(x)

CMP

(Rs.)

FV

(Rs.)

ACC 83,904 33% 19% 157 12.9 3.3 1027 10.0

Ambuja Cement 70,768 30% 17% 188 17.9 3.4 143 2.0

Ultratech Cement 71,750 29% 15% 136 12.6 3.0 1105 10.0

* Y/E Dec for ACC & Ambuja Cem, $/Re = 45

October 7, 2010


Based on an average of CY11E consolidated EV/EBITDA multiple of 6 and an EV/ tonne of USD 120, the fair value for the company works out to Rs 859.

VALUATION

We estimate ACC Ltd’s revenues to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% over CY2009-11 to Rs 98.3bn by CY2011. We

also estimate that PAT would decline to Rs 13bn in CY2011 from Rs 15.6bn in CY2009.

The industry has added over 70mt in the last two years to reach the current levels of nearly 270mt and is

expected to further add 30mt by FY11. We believe that the stabilization of the recent capacity addition would

lead to an oversupply situation raising concerns over sustainability of the recent price hikes. In addition, coal

prices are expected to be firm amid shortages.

Based on an average of CY11E consolidated EV/EBITDA multiple of 6 and an EV/ tonne of

USD 120, the fair value for the company works out to Rs 859.

We recommend a ‘SELL’ rating on the stock.

Financial Analysis and Projections

Particulars (Rs Mn) CY07A CY08A CY09A CY10E CY11E

Net Revenue 69,408 75,641 83,904 96,396 98,300

Other Income 3,806 3,229 2,662 3,374 3,440

Total Income 73,215 78,870 86,566 99,770 101,740

Operating Expenditure 50,084 59,017 59,281 70,472 75,585

Depreciation 3,130 3,205 3,731 4,743 5,349

EBIT 20,000 16,648 23,553 24,555 20,806

EBIT Margin (%) 28.8% 22.0% 28.1% 25.5% 21.2%

Interest 744 400 1,047 1,134 1,786

Profit Before Tax 19,256 16,248 22,506 23,421 19,020

Less: Tax 4,981 5,252 6,868 7,026 5,706

Profit After Tax 14,275 10,996 15,639 16,395 13,314

PAT Margin (%) 20.6% 14.5% 18.6% 17.0% 13.5%

ROE (%) 32.7% 21.5% 25.4% 21.8% 15.1%

EPS (Rs) 72.5 55.1 79.3 87.3 70.9

BVPS (Rs) 221.6 256.8 312.3 400.0 470.9

Valuation Ratios (x) CY10E CY11E

P/E 11.8 14.5

P/B 2.6 2.2

* Y/E December

Fair Value Calculation

EV/ tonne method EV/ EBITDA method

EV / tonne ($) 120 EV / EBITDA multiple 6.0

CY11E Capacity (mtpa) 30.7 CY11E EBITDA (Rs mn) 26,155

EV (Rs Mn) 165,618 EV (Rs mn) 156,931

CY11E Net Cash (Rs mn) 8,382 CY11E Net Cash (Rs mn) 8,382

Equity Value (Rs mn) 174,000 Equity Value (Rs mn) 148,549

Fair Value (Rs per share) 927 Fair Value (Rs per share) 791

Average Value (Rs per share) 859

October 7, 2010


Board Of Directors

Director Name Current Position Description

N S Sekhsaria Chairman

Mr. N. S. Sekhsaria serves as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board of ACC Ltd. Mr. Sekhsaria is the Founder-Promoter

and current Chairman of Ambuja Cements Limited. Mr. Sekhsaria was invited to join the ACC Board in 1999 and was

appointed Deputy Chairman from January 2000. He took over as its Chairman in January 2006. Mr. Sekhsaria built

Ambuja Cement into a benchmark for Indian Industry. His acumen as an entrepreneur and technocrat turned

Ambuja into the most efficient and profitable cement company in India and redefined industry practices by

changing the perception of cement from a commodity to a branded product. Under his leadership, ACC has

achieved improvements in the areas of project management, logistics and overall cost-competitiveness.

Paul Hugentobler Deputy Chairman

Mr. Paul Hugentobler serves as Non-Executive Deputy Chairman of the Board of ACC Ltd. He obtained a degree in

Civil Engineering from the ETH, Zurich, and a degree in Economic Science from the University of St. Gallen. He joined

Holcim Group Support Limited in 1980 as Project Manager and in 1994 was appointed as Area Manager for Holcim

Limited. From 1999 until 2000, he also served as CEO of Siam City Cement, Bangkok, Thailand. He has been a

Member of the Executive Committee since January 1, 2002 with the responsibility for South Asia and ASEAN

excluding Philippines. He has been appointed as Vice Chairman of Ambuja Cements Limited with effect from

September 24, 2009.

Kuldip Kaura Managing Director

& CEO

Mr. Kuldip Kaura has been appointed as Chief Executive Officer, Managing Director of ACC Ltd with effect from

August 13, 2010. He was Non-Executive Independent Director of the Company. Mr. Kaura holds a degree in

Mechanical Engineering, BE (Hons.) from Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani and had also attended various

Executive Education Programmes at London Business School and Swedish Institute of Management, Stockholm. Mr.

Kaura has experience in businesses and companies in diverse sectors such as power, natural resources, metals,

mining etc. and has deep understanding of Corporate Governance, brand building and Sustainable Development in

India, U.K. and U.S. Regulatory Environment. He is presently Advisor with Vedanta Resources Plc.

Sam Palia Director

Mr. Sam Palia serves as Non-Executive Independent Director of ACC Ltd. Mr. Palia is a Development Banker by

profession. He was with IDBI from 1964-1989 during which period he held various responsible positions including

that of an Executive Director. He has also acted as an Advisor to Industrial Bank of Yemen, Saana (North Yemen) and

Industrial Bank of Sudan, Khartoum (Sudan) under World Bank assistance programmes. He was also the Managing

Director of Kerala Industrial & Technical Consultancy Organization Limited, set up to provide consultancy service to

micro enterprises and small and medium enterprises. He is a Director on the Boards of companies viz. Tata Steel

Limited, Tata Motors Limited, Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Co. Limited. He is Chairman-Emeritus of Rashtriya

Gramin Vikas Nidhi and a Trustee of Bombay Community Public Trust.

Naresh Chandra Director

Mr. Naresh Chandra serves as Non-Executive Independent Director of ACC Ltd. He is a post graduate in mathematics

from Allahabad University. He was a distinguished member of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) and former

Cabinet Secretary to the Government of India. He has held various important positions including that of Governor of

the State of Gujarat and India’s Ambassador to the United States of America. He has served on numerous important

Committees including as Chairman of Corporate Governance Committee instituted by the Government of India. Mr.

Naresh Chandra, is Chairman of Committee of Civil Aviation Policy, Ministry of Civil Aviation. He is a Director on the

Boards of various companies. In the year 2007, he was honoured with Padma Vibhushan by the Government of India.

October 7, 2010


Board Of Directors Contd...

Markus Akermann Director

Mr. Markus Akermann serves as Non-Executive Director of ACC Ltd. He is the Chief Executive Officer and member of

the Board of Directors of Holcim Limited. He obtained a degree in Business Economics from the University of St.

Gallen in 1973 and studied Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Sheffield, U.K. Mr. Akermann began his

professional career in 1975 with the former Swiss Bank Corporation. In 1978, he moved to Holcim where he was

active in a number of roles including Area Manager for Latin America and Holcim Trading. In 1993, he was appointed

to the Executive Committee with responsibility for Latin America and international trading activities. On January 1,

2002, he was appointed Chief Executive Officer and at the Annual General Meeting in 2002, he was elected to the

Board of Directors of Holcim Limited.

M L Narula Director

Mr. M.L. Narula serves as Non-Executive Director of ACC Ltd. He is a Graduate from Punjab University and Fellow,

Institute of Engineers. Mr. Narula has been closely associated with the Company for over 45 years in various senior

positions in plant and Corporate Office including that of Wholetime Director since April 1996 and was the Managing

Director of the Company from December 1, 2002 till his retirement on March 31, 2007. Mr. Narula has experience and

in depth knowledge of the Cement Industry. He is presently a Non-Executive Director on the Company’s Board with

effect from April 1, 2007. Mr. Narula is also a Director on the Boards of other Indian and Foreign Companies and

Senior Advisor to Holcim Group Services, Zurich, Switzerland.

R A Shah Director

Mr. R. A. Shah serves as Non-Executive Independent Director of ACC Ltd. He is a Solicitor and a Senior Partner of M/s.

Crawford Bayley and Co., a firm of Advocates & Solicitors. He specializes in a broad spectrum of corporate laws in

general, with special focus on Foreign Investments, Joint Ventures, Technology and License Agreement, Intellectual

Property Rights, Mergers and Acquisitions, Industrial Licensing, Anti Trust Laws, Company Law and Taxation. He is a

Director on the Board of various public limited companies and is Chairman of the Board in many of these companies.

He is also on the Audit Committee of some of the companies on which he is a Director.

Shailesh Haribhakti Director

Mr. Shailesh V. Haribhakti serves as Non-Executive Independent Director of ACC Ltd. He is Fellow Chartered

Accountant. Mr. Shailesh Haribhakti is the Executive Chairman of BDO Consulting Pvt. Ltd. He served a three year

term on the Standards Advisory Council of the International Accounting Standards Board. He is a Committee

Member of Futures & Options segment of National Stock Exchange of India Limited and a Member of the SEBI

Committee on Disclosures and Accounting Standards. He serves as Member of Managing Committees of ASSOCHAM

and IMC and Corporate Governance Committees of ASSOCHAM and CII and is Chairman of the Global Warming

Committee of IMC. He is on the Board of Directors of several listed and private companies.

Aidan Lynam Director

Mr. Aidan John Lynam has been appointed as a Director of ACC Limited with effect from April 22, 2010. He holds a

degree in Engineering from the University College of Dublin and an MBA from IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland. In

addition to the above, he holds the following Professional Memberships: Member of the Institute of Engineers in

Ireland (MIEI), Chartered Member of the British Institute of Manufacturing Engineers (C.Eng. M.I.E.E), Board Member

(2009) of European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam. Mr. Lynam is presently in the services of Holcim Limited and

is Area Manager responsible for Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Singapore, Malaysia and Cambodia. He is also

regionally responsible for the OH&S and Geocycle core groups of Holcim and the Holcim South East Asia IT Shared

Service Centre.

D K Mehrotra Nominee (LIC)

Mr. Dinesh Kumar Mehrotra serves as Non-Executive Independent Director - Nominee of LIC of ACC Ltd. Mr.

Mehrotra is the Managing Director of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and is also a director on the Board of

Directors of some of LIC’s subsidiary companies within and outside India and other public limited companies. He

represents LIC on the ACC Board.

acc ltd : sell

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