accelerating creative destruction and its implications for capital formation. chandrakant sampat
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Accelerating Creative Destruction and its
implications for capital formation.
Chandrakant Sampat
![Page 2: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Capital Markets operate in an organism of economy. They reward durability and the ability to generate more than the cost of capital. But now mutations have started
occurring; what will be the impact of these mutations on the capital market on society and on human species? Will the Darwinian concept hold – that natural selection weeds
out mutations and preserves what is favourable, or are we moving towards
Gouldian concept of “punctuated equilibrium”?
![Page 3: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Dhammapada - 121
“ Do not think of evil lightly as saying – it will not come to me. By the constant fall of water drops, a pitcher is filled; likewise the unwise person, accumulating evil little by little, becomes full of evil.”
![Page 4: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Some thoughts from “Why the future does not need us”
Article by Bill Joy – Chief Scientific Officer of Sun
Microsystems in Wired Magazine – April 2000 issue.
![Page 5: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
I think it is no exaggeration to say we are on the cusp of the further
perfection of extreme evil, an evil whose possibility spreads well
beyond that which weapons of mass destruction bequeathed to the nation states, on to a surprising and terrible
empowerment of extreme individuals.
![Page 6: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Because of the recent rapid and radical progress in molecular electronics – where individual atoms and molecules replace lithographically drawn transistors – and
related nanoscale technologies, we should be able to meet or exceed Moore’s Law rate of
progress for another 30 years. By 2030, we are likely to be able to build machines, in quantity
a million times as powerful as the personal computers of today – sufficient to implement
the dreams of Moravec.
![Page 7: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Hans Moravec goes on to discuss how our main job in the 21st century will be
ensuring continued cooperation from the robot industries by passing laws
decreeing that they be ‘nice’ and to describe how seriously dangerous a
human race can be ‘once transformed into an unbounded super intelligent
robot’. Moravec’s view is that robots will eventually succeed us – that humans will
clearly face extinction.
![Page 8: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
“While I had heard such talk before, I had always felt sentient robots were in the realm
of science fiction. But now, from someone respected, I was hearing a strong argument that they were a near term possibility. I was taken aback, especially given Ray’s proven ability to imagine and create the future. I already knew that new technologies like
genetic engineering and nanotechnology were giving us the power to remake the world, but
a realistic and imminent scenario for intelligent robots surprised me.”
![Page 9: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Biological species almost never survive encounters with superior competitors. In a completely free
market place, superior robots would surely affect humans.
Robotic industries would compete vigorously among themselves for matter energy and space. Unable
to afford the necessities of life, biological humans would be squeezed out of existence.
![Page 10: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Genetic engineering may soon provide treatments, if not outright
cures, for most diseases; and nanotechnology and nanomedicine can address yet more ills. Yet with
each of these technologies, a sequence of small individually sensible advances leads o an
accumulation of great power and, concomitantly great danger.
![Page 11: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
This is the first moment in the history of our planet when any species, by its own
voluntary actions, has become a danger to itself – as well as to vast number of others.
It might be a familiar progression, transpiring on many worlds – a planet
newly formed, placidly revolves around its star, life slowly forms; a kaleidoscope
procession of creatures evolves; intelligence emerges which, at least up to a
point, confers enormous survival value; and then technology is invented.
![Page 12: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Accelerating Creative Destruction
The chart shows that at the end of each wave the capital shifts to the new big thing. This movement to the new creates a bubble. Also the waves are becoming shorter in time. US is spending on GNP $ 1.3 bln, Japan almost the same and Europe $ 700 mln.
![Page 13: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Some Fifth Wave Changes
Technology• Use of molecular computers.• Smart pills with chip
dispensing drugs.• Virtual Retinal Displays,
glasses based.• Cars powered by Hydrogen
Fuel Cells.• Real time language translation.
Year of Impact• 2003• 2003
• 2003
• 2004
• 2004
![Page 14: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Some More Fifth Wave Changes
Technology• Instruction from artificial
intelligence in schools• Quantum Cryptography• Designer Babies• Totally automated factories• DNA storage device
Year Of Impact• 2004
• 2007• 2005• 2007• 2010
![Page 15: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Competition comes from the new commodity, new technology, the new
source of supply, the new type of organisation.. – competition which
makes a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the
margin of profits and the output of existing firms, but their lives.
Joseph . A . Schumpeter.
![Page 16: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Any product would be manufacturable by assemblers at a cost no greater than that of
wood. Space flight would be more accessible than
transoceanic travel today.
Bill Joy
![Page 17: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction is even more
rampant today. Can the stock market finance the rapidly
decreasing competitive advantage periods that this
implies? And what happens to the society which is subject to
such periodic upheavals?
![Page 18: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Conclusions
• “We will be rich in proportion to the number of things which we can afford to let alone.” – Thoreau.
• “We each seek to be happy, but it would be worthwhile to question whether we need to take such a high risk of total destruction to gain yet more knowledge and yet more things; common sense says that there is a limit to our material needs – and that certain knowledge is too dangerous and is best foregone”. – Thoreau.
• “Knowing is not a rationale for not acting. Can we doubt that knowledge has become a weapon we wield against ourselves?” – Bill Joy in Wired Magazine
![Page 19: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Conclusions – from Carl Sagan
Science, they recognize, grants immense powers. In a flash, they create world altering contrivances. Some planetary civilizations see their way through, place limits on what may and what must not be done, and safely pass thorough the times of peril. Others, not so luck or so prudent, perish.
![Page 20: Accelerating Creative Destruction and its implications for capital formation. Chandrakant Sampat](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022072015/56649ec65503460f94bd2106/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
“Whatever Can Go Wrong, Will !
Murphy’s Law