© OECD/IEA 2016

Accelerating electric vehicle deployment and support policies

Kamel Ben Naceur Director Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks International Energy Agency

Global Climate Action Agenda: Transport Action Event COP 22, Marrakech, Morocco

12 November 2016

© OECD/IEA 2016

The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) and IEA’s role in EV support

EVI: Multi-government policy forum established in 2009 under the Clean Energy Ministerial, coordinated by IEA

2015: Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change and Call to Action

Global EV Outlook 2016, released on 31 May

EVI supports IEA data and analysis which are the basis of WEO and ETP scenarios

© OECD/IEA 2016

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The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport

GHG emissions – transport

Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving “well below 2 degree” ambitions

© OECD/IEA 2016

The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport

GHG emissions – transport

Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving “well below 2 degree” ambitions

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Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving “well below 2 degree” ambitions

4DS

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The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport

GHG emissions – transport 4DS to 2DS

Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving “well below 2 degree” ambitions

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© OECD/IEA 2016

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GHG emissions – transport

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Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving “well below 2 degree” ambitions

2DS

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© OECD/IEA 2016

EV stock evolution, 2010-2015

Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2015

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Policy support needs to be continued to reach the very ambitious targets of 30% of sales by 2030 set during COP 21

© OECD/IEA 2016

Improvement in battery costs and energy density

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$268/kWh

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Battery costs and energy density showed impressive improvements over the past decade

RD&D investments will be important to ensure that this trend continues

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV support policies needed in multiple fields of mobility

Purchase incentives

Standards, regulations and mandates

Circulation incentives

Charging infrastructure roll-out

• Fuel economy standards • Fuel taxes • Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives

• CO2-based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates • Feebates • VAT exemptions

• Differentiated plates • Access to bus lanes • Free/dedicated parking • Circulation/congestion charge exemption

• Direct public investment • Public-private partnerships • Charger standards harmonization • Fast and slow charging network planning

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV support policies needed in multiple fields of mobility

Purchase incentives

Standards, regulations and mandates

Circulation incentives

Charging infrastructure roll-out

• Fuel economy standards • Fuel taxes • Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives

• CO2-based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates • Feebates • VAT exemptions

• Differentiated plates • Access to bus lanes • Free/dedicated parking • Circulation/congestion charge exemption

• Direct public investment • Public-private partnerships • Charger standards harmonization • Fast and slow charging network planning

© OECD/IEA 2016

Thank you

The Global EV Outlook 2016 is freely accessible online

© OECD/IEA 2016

Supplementary slides

© OECD/IEA 2016

The role of electric cars in sustainable transport Electric cars benefits

Main hurdles and challenges Upfront cost

Charging infrastructure and range anxiety

Need for policy action to lift up barriers, spur adoption and harvest the benefits of EVs.

Climate Health Energy security

Better energy efficiency than internal

combustion engines

Absence of tailpipe emissions

(CO2 and pollutants) (paramount in urban areas)

Low-carbon mode, provided that the

electricity mix is low-carbon

Reduction of oil dependency (+ potential for harvesting

local, renewable energy

sources)

© OECD/IEA 2016

550,000 EVs sold in 2015 (+ 70%)

China became the first EV market in 2015

9/10 EVs sold in 8 countries (China, US, Netherlands, Norway, UK, Japan, Germany, France)

7 countries >1% market share (Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China, UK)

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2015 marketshare

GEVO 2016: the electric car market in 2015

© OECD/IEA 2016

EU: +20% sales in Q1-Q2 2016 compared to Q1-Q2 2015

China: +160% sales in Q1-Q2 2016 compared to Q1-Q2 2015

Netherlands: 2.5% market share in 2016 (ytd) vs. 10% in 2015, due to changes in support mechanism and drop in PHEV sales

Recent market developments: EV sales and market share

What is happening in 2016?

expecting dynamic global growth in 2016, mainly driven by China sales

© OECD/IEA 2016

Purchase incentives and EV market shares, 2015

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BEV market share

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Various policy mechanisms behind the “market pull” Differentiated taxation: CO2-based rebates, technology-based rebates,

feebates, VAT exemptions Waivers on charges, preferential treatment possible if differentiated

number plates are in place

Norway stands out in terms of incentives and EV adoption Difficult to come to conclusions for other markets (very early phase)

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV Supply Equipment

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Publicly available slowchargers

Growth rate of publiclyavailable fast chargers

Growth rate of publiclyaccessible slow chargers

Growth rate of privatechargers

0.82 million

1.45 million

The deployment of publicly accessible chargers is positively correlated with the growth in EV sales

Need for charging network to overcome range anxiety barrier

Incentives are not just needed for vehicle purchase

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV support policies: challenges and future evolutions

Today: Countries are still in trial and error phase:

Which policies have the highest impacts? Do any policies have unanticipated adverse effects? What is the cost-optimal and most effective combination of support policies?

Tomorrow: How to accompany mass market deployment within budget constraints … How to rethink vehicle taxation to accommodate for fuel tax losses

(electric cars do use public infrastructure and remain part of the congestion challenge) …

How to prevent potential competition between EVs and public transport …

… without hampering EV rollout?

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV deployment targets

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140 million

Horizon 2050 (2DS): ● 450-550 million EVs ● 25% global car stock

World

Implications in terms of production scale up and need for raw materials?

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV deployment scenarios

Impacts on the grid? Slow charging: Potential for flexibility through variable charging:

requires price signal, demand-side management tools, but not necessarily “vehicle-to-grid” operations.

Synergies with the integration of variable renewables

Fast charging: Potentially disruptive locally for distribution grids Does not offer flexibility However, fast charging is not likely to take place in the

evening demand peak (home chargers are slow chargers)

© OECD/IEA 2016

(RTE) Hourly load of a winter day with different charging modes

Source: Réseau de Transport d’Electricité (RTE), France. Slide presented at the Paris “CEEM, Conference Electric vehicles and the electricity system” on 17 October 2016. Presentation available at http://www.ceem-dauphine.org/assets/dropbox/CEEM_Conference_-_RTE_-_Impact_of_EV_development.pdf

© OECD/IEA 2016

Thank you for your attention

The Global EV Outlook 2016 is freely accessible online

© OECD/IEA 2016

Policy needs

A policy framework with high taxes on conventional fuels and stringent fuel economy standards is favorable for EVs

Purchase and circulation incentives and the availability of charging infrastructure are positively correlated with EV uptake

Need for fiscal measures (e.g. differentiated taxation, feebates) to kick start the market uptake

Need for mechanisms supporting the deployment of recharging infrastructure

Additional measures can further increase the value proposition of EVs

Examples: waivers on access restrictions (bus lanes) and urban/parking pricing schemes

Incentives can only be transitional Risk of tax revenue losses (incl. from fuel purchase). Need to adapt taxation

mechanisms.

Risk of congestion effects and detrimental effects to public transportation.

Need for close monitoring and periodical revisions to adapt to a fast evolving market