accelerating solar energy in...

Accelerating Solar Energy

in New Yorkin New York

D b 15 2010December 15, 2010

Cornell ILR

Kamen Family Home – Binghamton, NY

21 Pine21 Pine Trees - each 70 years old & 50’ t ll& 50’ tall, lined thelined the

driveway & surrounded th hthe house

Force III - 3rd longest Tornado in recorded historyMay 31 1998May 31, 1998

Before

After

“ Iʹd put my money on the sun and solar energyand solar energy.

What a source of power! I hope we donʹt have to wait till

oil and coal run outoil and coal run out before we tackle that.“

Th EdiThomas Edison10

Available Energy Sources

Natural Gas 1,8

215totalSOLAR10

WIND1,2

Waves11,325‐70per year

Petroleum 1,8

240

23,000 per yearOTEC1,4

3 ‐11 per year

0.2‐2

Uranium 1,9

240total

2 – 6 per yearBiomass 1,5

World energy use16 TW‐yrper year

90‐300Total

HYDRO 1,6

3 – 4 per year

COAL 1,8

900Total reserve

TIDES 10.3 per year

Geothermal1,70.3 – 2 per year

3 – 4 per year

http://www.asrc.cestm.albany.edu/perez/ © R. Perez et al.

Su eoSurgeonA hit tArchitectP liti iPolitician

12

Populist Republican Congressman

“It’s amazing how innocent & ignorantthe American public is about Energy ”the American public is about Energy.

“They are very well represented in Congress”g

13

“C” Changes

Installation Contractors

5000 MWs PV + 2000 MWs Solar Thermal

I a a io o a oManufacturers

Service Providers

NYS Assemblyman & Senators

Public Service CommissionNYSERDANYSERDA

Environmental Organizations

IBEW

Confidential and Proprietary, ©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.Do not distribute or copy

IBEWSheetmetal Workers

Plumbers & Pipefitters

800 j b i 2010800+ new jobs in 2010

SunwizeAtl ti E

Solar Applicances(li hti til tiAtlantis Energy

Globe Specialty MetalsPrecision Flow

(lighting, ventilation, LEDs)

Net Zero EnergySpectrawatt

SolarTech RenewablesPrism Solar

gyWidetronix

Armistead Mechanical


Prism Solar Armistead MechanicalPerreca Electric

Solar in NY State

NY State boasts a solid foundation of solar installations upon which future growth will be builtfuture growth will be built.

United States General Services Agency (GSA) J b K J it F d l B ildi 26 F d l Pl NYCJacob K. Javits Federal Building 26 Federal Plaza NYC

2010 Best Federal Government PV Project in NYS

Mercury Solar /ConEd Solutions

PV

11 KW

NYC Building Integrated

Lifetime Savings:242,000 KWh242,000 KWh

NY Institute of Technology El t i C t PV Ch i St tiElectric Carport PV Charging Station

2010 PV Innovation

EmPower10 KW

Lifetime Savings:220,000 KWh

Smithtown Schools2010 B t R f M t PV P j t2010 Best Roof Mount PV Project

LIPAPV

110 KW

Lifetime Savings:2.4 Million KWh

Town of Esopus2010 B t G d M t PV P j t2010 Best Ground Mount PV Project

AlterisAlterisPV

77 KW Tracking77 KW Tracking

Lifetime Savings:2.1 Million KWh

Ronnybrook Farm Dairy2010 B t G d M t S l Th l P j t2010 Best Ground Mount Solar Thermal Project

EarthKind Solar

Solar Thermal H t W tHot Water

30 Flat Plate Collectors

Lifetime Savings:50,000 Gallons Oil

Rockland County Co‐Compost Facility

14,100 Gallons Oil / Year

$1.00/Gallon20+ Years20+ Years

Fort Drum 2010 B t F d l G t2010 Best Federal Government Solar Thermal Project in NYS

SolarWall byConservalSolar Thermal

Air Heating

4 MWs Solar Thermal

Lifetime Savings:8.7 Million Therms

NYS Office of General Service (OGS) W llkill C ti l F ilitWallkill Correctional Facility

2010 Best NYS Government Solar Project

Silicon SolarSolar Thermal

Hot WaterHot Water

48 SunMaxx 30 Evacuated Tube

CollectorsCollectors

Lifetime Savings:160,000 gal OIL

The Wild CenterNY’ N t l Hi t M f th Adi d k’NY’s Natural History Museum of the Adirondack’s

2010 Solar Thermal Innovation

CSA Architects54,000 ft2 building

Wood Pellets + Solar Thermal

Hudson Valley Clean Energyh b kRhinebeck

Net Zero Commercial BuildingHudson Valley CleanHudson Valley Clean

Energy

‐ PVPV‐ Geothermal‐ Solar Thermal

Hot WaterHot Water

Net Zero EnergyNet Zero CarbonNet Zero CarbonZero Fossil Fuels

Hamptons Green Alliance (HGA) HousehSouthampton

Net Zero Residential BuildingSunstream USASunstream USA

‐ PVh l‐ Geothermal

‐ Solar ThermalHot Water

Net Zero EnergyNet Zero CarbonZero Fossil Fuels

Solar PVHISTORICAL APPROXIMATIONS

PV 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 1 3 6 12 22

CUMULATIVE: 1 4 10 22 44

RPS $24M/YRPS $24M/Yr Geo Bal + $30M/ Yr

$ARRA $16M

LIPA $23M +


50 MWs

NYPA 100 MWs

Solar PVTotal Annual $ $ / Watt Total Watts Installed $ $ NYS Market

NYSERDA 25,000,000$ 1.75$ 14,285,714 5.00$ 71,428,571$ , ,$ $ , , $ , ,$LIPA 23,390,000$ 1.75$ 13,365,714 5.50$ 73,511,429$ Geo Balance 30,000,000$ 1.00$ 30,000,000 5.00$ 150,000,000$

Total: 57 651 429 294 940 000$Total: 57,651,429 294,940,000$

~57 MWs / Year

$300 Million Industry

LIPA 50 MWConfidential and Proprietary, ©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.Do not distribute or copy

+ LIPA 50 MWs

+ NYPA 100 MWs

NYS Solar Coalition Annual PV Targets ‐ To 5 000

Utilities LIPA NYPA TOTAL

2012 52 103 103 258

NYS Solar Coalition Annual PV Targets ‐ To 5,000 MWs

2012 52 103 103 582013 77 119 119 315 2014 103 134 134 372 2015 155 155 155 464 2016 222 181 181 583 2017 310 206 206 722 2018 439 232 232 903 2019 1 1872019 619 284 284 1,187 2020 877 335 335 1,548 2021 1,187 387 387 1,961 2022 1 445 490 490 2,425


2022 1,445 490 490 2,425 2023 1,858 619 619 3,096 2024 2,374 800 800 3,973 2025 3,096 1,032 1,032 5,160

1,600

1,200

1,400

800

1,000 750 MWs by 2015, 2000 by 2020, 5000 by 2025

Consistent Growth to 2000 MWs by 2020


400

600


Staggered Growth Scenario ‐ 25%, 30%, 40%

Staggered Growth Scenario ‐ 40%, 30%, 20%

‐

200 Staggered Growth Scenario Goals: 500 MWs, 2000 MWs, 5000 MWs


‐

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

NY Solar Jobs ActNY Solar Jobs Act

Cumulative Economic Impacts (through 2025)p ( g )

New Jobs 22,198

Economic Output $20 billion

Average Residential Rate Impact:


39¢ per month

Genesis of the DOE initiative:

34

NYS Electricity Prices

How much does NYS consumersHow much does NYS consumerspay for Electricity Today?

Statewide Average: 16 cents / kwh

Downstate: 21+ cents / kwhDownstate: 21+ cents / kwh

Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics)

2010 Solar PV2010 Solar PV

Average Family Net Zero (9 KW)

Installed Price:

$50,000


20 Year Generation: @ 10,000 kwh/year = ~200,000 KWhs or

25 Cents per KWh

for 20 Years

BEFORE Tax Credits


WITH

Residential 30% Federal Tax Credit+

NYS $5,000 Tax Credit

=

15 t / k h15 cents/ kwh f 20for 20 years

Solar Thermal

Solar Thermal Energy is used throughout the worldis used throughout the world

to pre‐heat Hot Water & Space Heat b f i f il f lbefore using fossil fuels.

Solar Heat & Hot WaterSolar Heat & Hot Water is generally

50% 70% l i50% ‐ 70% less expensive than PV

h h b Offwith 4 times the Carbon Offset

The Solar Heat Opportunity

•New York City has the densest concentration of electric power in the world, and 80% of all carbonelectric power in the world, and 80% of all carbon emissions are from buildings.

• Even in NYC ‐more than HALF the energy is used for heat & hot water! The percentage isused for heat & hot water! The percentage is higher everywhere else.

• In an average NYS residence: 1/3 of the fuel is for hot waterhot water

Solar Hot Water

20 Year Generation @ 150 Gallons Oil / year@ 150 Gallons Oil / year = ~3,000 Gallons of Oil

$2.67 per Gallon$2.67 per Gallon

for 20 Yearsfor 20 Years

BEFORE Tax CreditsBEFORE Tax Credits

Solar Hot Water

WITH

Residential 30% Federal Tax Credit+

NYS Tax Credit

=

$1 20 / G ll$1.20 / Gallon f 20for 20 years

Solar THERMAL

2006 2007 2008 2009

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 0.5 0.5 1 5

HISTORICAL APPROXIMATIONS

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 0.5 0.5 1 5

CUMULATIVE: 0.5 1 2 7

ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE 100% 400%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2,000 MW Solar THERMAL Goal: by 20202010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 8 12 19 31 48 76 119 188 295 465 731


CUMULATIVE: 15 27 47 77 126 201 321 509 804 1,269 2,000

ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57%

NYSEIA 2020 Solar Thermal Goals

• Increase the total amount of installed NYS ST capacity from 8 MW to 2000MW

•Annual Installations:—2010: 500 Systems—2020: 83,000 Systems

• Increase market to $600 million annuallyy• Total ST Projected Sales 2010‐2020: $2.6B•Create 24 000 Jobs•Create 24,000 Jobs

Car


ElectricityElectricity

Car



TelephoneCar



Color TV

TelephoneCar


ElectricityMicrowave

Electricity

Color TV

TelephoneCar


DVD Players

Digital Cameras

Camera Phones

Personal Computers

C ll

DVD Recorders

Home Networks

Video Games

Cell Phone

MP 3 Players


Poster at Jon Stewart “Rally for Sanity”

“We’re making enemiesWe re making enemiesFaster than we canFaster than we canKill the ”Kill them.”

51

ACORE 2010 Conference Renewable Energy Phase IIRenewable Energy Phase II

US N Vi Ad i lUS Navy Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn(Retired)

Jobs JoNational Securityy

52

Thomas P GrumblyThomas P. Grumbly, Vice President,

Lockheed Martin

C it t•Commitment•Execution•Long Term Market Signals

53

NYSEIA’S 2011 Goals

• Create fully funded 5,000MV PV program• E u e u e of NYS RPS I e ti e P o a fo ele t i• Ensure success of NYS RPS Incentive Program for electric hot water users ‐ $4.3M per year thru 2015

• Build support for 2,000 MVs of ST, focusing on oil andBuild support for 2,000 MVs of ST, focusing on oil and natural gas programs

• Grow NYSEIA’s membership, expand legislative and lregulatory impact

• Work with Governor Cuomo (who supports Solar Energy)

Ron Kamen

[email protected]

917‐453‐5740917 453 5740

55

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