accommodating the millennials: demographic outlook for the ......republic of korea 1,778 12. russian...

14 May 2019

Bernard Salt AMThe Demographics Group

2019 StarRez APSAA Conference

Accommodating the Millennials:

Demographic outlook for the

higher education market

2019 GDP USDbn

1. United States 21,410

2. China 15,544

3. Japan 5,362

4. Germany 4,417

5. India 3,155

6. France 3,060

7. United Kingdom 3,023

8. Italy 2,261

9. Brazil 2,257

10. Canada 1,909

11. Republic of Korea 1,778

12. Russian Federation 1,754

13. Spain 1,584

14. Australia 1,582

15. Mexico 1,285

2029 GDP USDbn

1. China 30,458

2. United States 29,531

3. Japan 6,892

4. India 6,793

5. Germany 6,548

6. France 4,385

7. United Kingdom 4,113

8. Brazil 3,402

9. Canada 3,191

10. Italy 3,006

11. Republic of Korea 2,706

12. Australia 2,497

13. Spain 2,322

14. Russian Federation 2,247

15. Indonesia 2,113

Australia is a good place to be... now and over the coming decade

Source: International Monetary Fund; The Demographics Group

SLIDE #

Australia has found a unique solution to the baby bust

Source: The Demographics Group

Net annual growth in Australia's working age population (15-64) between 1960 and 2050

10m 19m 38m

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

SLIDE #

Japan must find other solutions to a contracting workforce

Source: : Based on World Bank data; The Demographics Group

Net annual growth in Japan’s working age population (15-64) between 1960 and 2050

93m 127m 108m

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

196

0

196

2

196

4

196

6

196

8

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

202

2

202

4

202

6

202

8

203

0

203

2

203

4

203

6

203

8

204

0

204

2

204

4

204

6

204

8

SLIDE #

Immigration (and education) drives Australia... 30 million by 2030

Source: Statistics New Zealand; The Demographics Group

Components of net population growth in Australia between 1982 and 2030

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration

15 20 25 30

The Australian education market is remarkably diverse

Berlin 13%London 36%

Paris 22%

Madrid 20%

Mumbai 1%

Shanghai 0%Tokyo 2%

Seoul 4%

Singapore 29%

Darwin 28%Cairns 29%

Alice Springs 29%

Auckland 39%

Wellington 27%

Adelaide 28%

Perth 39%Buenos Aires 13%

Miami 39%

San Francisco 36%

Pittsburgh 4%

Toronto 47%New York

29%

Johannesburg 6%

Moscow 13%

Vienna 32%

Brisbane 28%

Melbourne36%

Dubai 83%

Stockholm 30%

Sydney 39%

Canberra28%

Proportion of city population comprising international-born residents as measured by local censuses

8,000km

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group

Montreal 33%

Vancouver 43%

SLIDE #

New acronyms for our newest tribes

Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice SuburbsPUMCINS …

Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life …NETTELs

Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement SavingsKIPPERS …

Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead …LOMBARDs


Source: Based on United Nations Population Division data; The Demographics Group

Australia’s connections into China can go further into the future

Population

M

City 2018 2000

1 Shanghai * 26 14

2 Beijing * 20 10

3 Chongqing * 15 8

4 Tianjin 13 7

5 Guangzhou * 13 7

6 Shenzhen * 12 7

7 Chengdu * 8 4

8 Nanjing * 7 4

9 Wuhan * 8 7

10 Xi’an * 7 4

Population

M

City 2018 2000

11 Hong Kong * 7 7

12 Dongguan 7 4

13 Hangzhou * 6 3

14 Foshan 7 4

15 Shenyang 7 5

16 Suzhou 6 2

17 Haerbin 6 4

18 Qingdao * 5 3

19 Dalian 5 3

20 Jinan 5 3

Population

M

City 2018 2000

21 Zhengzhou * 5 2

22 Changsha * 4 2

23 Changchun 4 3

24 Kunming * 4 3

25 Shantou 4 3

26 Ürümqi 4 2

27 Hefei 4 2

28 Shijiazhuang 4 3

29 Ningbo 4 2

30 Taiyuan 4 3

Cities connected by direct flights into Australia not in this list:

• Xiamen, Fuzhou & Haikou* Cities connected by direct flights into Australian cities

Asian and

Indian

influences are

rising... our

consumer

markets

respond

quickly to

external

influences

Nationalities by country of

birth in Australia and

Greater Melbourne

between the 2011 and

2016 censuses


2016

United Kingdom 1,088,000

New Zealand 518,000

China 510,000

India 455,000

Philippines 232,000

Vietnam 219,000

Italy 174,000

South Africa 162,000

Malaysia 138,000

Sri Lanka 110,000

Germany 103,000

South Korea 99,000

Change 2011-16

-1%

+7%

+60%

+54%

+36%

+19%

-6%

+12%

+19%

+27%

-5%

+33%

Greater

Melbourne

-2%

+18%

+72%

+51%

+33%

+18%

-8%

+11%

+25%

+27%

-6%

+43%


More workers in the 30s & early 40s pushing to career peak

Australian population by single year of age 2008-2018 and 2018-2028

40 6020 80

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100

2008-2018: 3.8 million (21.2m to 25.0m) 2018-2028: 4.1 million (25.0m to 29.1m)

18 28

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics GroupSource: Based on Department of Education data; The Demographics Group

The delivery of Higher Education services is a growth industry

Australian University enrolments between 2001 and 2017

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Stu

dents

Total domestic students Total overseas students


Tertiary students cluster in big cities… and there’s scope to grow

2016

1. Melbourne 283,000

2. Sydney 282,000

3. Brisbane 132,000

4. Perth 99,000

5. Adelaide 73,000

6. Canberra - Queanbeyan 36,000

7. Gold Coast - Tweed Heads 27,000

8. Newcastle - Maitland 22,000

9. Wollongong 16,000

10. Sunshine Coast 11,000

Students per 1,000 residents

2016 2011

65 53

63 52

60 52

52 49

57 50

83 79

44 41

47 46

56 51

37 32

Full and part-time university student numbers living in top ten cities at the 2016 Census


-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0M

ar-

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61

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ar-

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64

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96

6M

ar-

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67

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82

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3Ju

n-1

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4M

ar-

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85

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8

Perc

ent change %

Years of prosperity have created a culture of aspiration

Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter (constant price) from 1961 to 2018

Fraser

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Menzies

Whitlam

GST

GFCHawke

Source: OECD, FRED, The Demographics Group

The way we live has changed … and so too have expectations

Source: House plans created by Sawmill Designs

Today

1950s

I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle

SLIDE #

More time is being allocated to learning prior to working


0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1979

Child Teen OldAdult

71

2019

Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetiredAdult

82

1939

Child Adult Old

63

Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia

The rise of

the

knowledge

worker is

driving

Australian

prosperity


Jobs ('000) added/lost by

industry in Australia

between February 2000

and February 2019

Australia February 2000 – February 2019: up 4.0m (8.7m – 12.7m)

February 2000 – February 2019

Jobs grown: 4,235,000

Jobs contracted: 248,000

Net jobs added: 3,987,000

Education

& Training

Admin &

Support

Mining

Financial &

Insurance

Public

Admin

& Safety

Wholesale

Trade

Rental/

Hiring &

Real Estate

Info Media &

Telecoms

Manufacturing

Agriculture/Forestry

& Fishing

Construction

Arts &

Recreation

Electricity/Gas/

Water & Waste

Transport/

Postal/

Warehouse

Healthcare

& Social

AssistanceRetail Trade

Accom. &

Food

Other

Services

Professional/

Scientific/

Tech.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Investment in education pays dividends


$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75

Postgraduate

BA

Trade Certificate

Year 10

Year 9

20 40 60 7030 50


The hollowing-out of Middle Australia jobs

Occupations by skill level at the 2016 Census

Skill Level Job Type

1 Doctor, Engineer, Midwife

2Police Officer, Dental

Hygienist, Chef

3Electrician, Butcher,

Mechanic

4Truck Driver, Waiter,

Barista

5Sales Assistant, Cleaner,

Café Worker

Relevant Total

Share of growth

2011-16

46%

13%

1%

21%

18%

100%

Growth

2011-16

290,000

80,000

10,000

130,000

110,000

620,000

Jobs in

2016

1,490,000

1,140,000

1,360,000

2,520,000

1,720,000

8,220,000

Share in

2016

18%

14%

17%

31%

21%

100%


Australia's biggest job centres are getting bigger

Top 20 job centres in Australia at 2016 plus net growth in jobs from 2011: census data

Place of work 2016Change

2016-2011

1. Sydney 321,000 69,400

2. Melbourne 221,000 35,000

3. Perth City 137,000 3,100

4. Brisbane City 122,000 6,300

5. Adelaide 108,000 7,400

6. Dandenong 66,000 12,000

7. Docklands 56,000 23,900

8. Parramatta 50,000 7,000

9. North Sydney 49,000 5,900

10. Macquarie Park 49,000 9,900

Place of work 2016Change

2016-2011

11. Southbank 39,000 5,500

12. Hobart 38,000 3,200

13. Richmond 37,000 6,900

14. Pyrmont - Ultimo 37,000 7,200

15. Civic Canberra 34,000 2,600

16. Clayton 33,000 4,500

17. Geelong 31,000 5,600

18. Surry Hills 30,000 6,500

19. St Leonards 30,000 3,800

20. Parkville 29,000 6,900


Skills required to

future-proof a career

STEM

&

Skills

• Continuous learning

• In-house training

• Online learning

Entrepreneurship

&

Enterprise

• Harvest ideas

• Mentoring

• Creative thinking

Agility

&

Resilience

• Embrace change

• Agile workspace

• Fit-in-ability

Source: Icons made by Roundicons, Freepik from www.flaticon.com; Shutterstock; The Demographics Group

Australia is exceptionally tolerant of other cultures to theextent that we nick bits and pieces that we think make uslook more cosmopolitan and less colonial—sad buttrue—and so again student accommodation fits into thisnarrative… we showcase rather than shun multinationalenclaves

Australia is a young growing nation with an ageingworkforce… we need strong immigration, a tolerantsociety, and an education system that delivers skilledworkers into the future… student accommodation fitsinto this narrative

The Australian workforce is tilting towards education

and skills and not just prior to work… there’s a growing

demand for continuous learning so that workers can

learn, unlearn and relearn the skills required to remain

workplace relevant

Introducing Australia’s bachelor hotspot …

Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2016 Census


Byron Bay

1.63:1

Roxby Downs

1.41:1

Hotspot suburbs for single men and

women aged 25-34 at the 2016 Census

“Highway of Love”

Barrier Highway

www.bernard-salt.com.au

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