accounting for carbon in copenhagen | morten hojer
DESCRIPTION
Accounting for Carbon in Copenhagen | Morten HojerTRANSCRIPT
Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:xxx
Accounting for Carbon in Copenhagen
ICARB Conference, EdinburghSeptember 5 2014
Morten HojerClimate Unit, City of Copenhagen
London School of Economics launched report on Copenhagen as a ”green economy leader” in June 2014
2Source: LSE, Economics of Green Cities Programme (2011-2015).
Is there is an economic rationale for early action on ”green” growth in cities?
The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a diversity of fields (1/3)
3
1990
1995
2001
2007
2013
The Stern Review (2006) argued that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs:
Without action, overall costs of climate change are equvalent to 5%-20% of world GDP each year
The impacts are irreversible and unevenly distributed; poor people in less developed countries are likely to suffer most
To avoid the worst effects of climate change about 2% of world GDP needs to be invested
From science… … to economics
The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a diversity of fields (2/3)
42011
“Cities are actually the healthiest, greenest, and richest places to live. New Yorkers, for instance, live longer than other Americans; heart disease and cancer rates are lower in Gotham than in the nation as a whole. More than half of America’s income is earned in twenty-two metropolitan areas. And city dwellers use, on average, 40 percent less energy than suburbanites.”
New York Times Review of Books
…to economics of urban agglomeration
The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a diversity of fields (3/3)
5
… to a new ”industrial” revolution
The state of the debate
6Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, New Climate Economy project.
NeutralGrowth and climate have
tradeoffs
Growth and climate have co-benefits
▪ Growth model too fragile to take on climate action now
▪ High energy costs will kill growth and create competitive asymmetries
▪ Climate action puts an unfair burden on the developing world
▪ There are multiple factors which affect growth in the next 3-5-10 years which are more important than climate action (which is frankly second-order)
▪ Higher resource efficiency can lead to better short-term growth/less volatility
▪ There are major co-benefits (air quality)
▪ Cleantech is an enormous innovation driver that will spillover positively to the whole economy
Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:xxx
What is Copenhagen doing about it?
Over the past 20 years, Copenhagen’s economy grew by 25% while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 40%
8
Urban crisis and de-population followed by inner-city densification
9
Despite a low average population density, housing and employment areas have been planned with good accessibility
10
Low levels of vehicle ownership per capita
11
Low time costs of journey-to-work indicate a very effective urban transport network
12
Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:xxx
Copenhagen carbon neutral by 2025
There are big challenges…
14
• Carbon: From 20 pct to 100 pct reduction in 10 years • Population: +20 pct increase in 2025 • Housing: +25.000 new units• Office spaces: +2,8 mio. m2
… and opportunities
15
Potential emissions reductions of 1,2 mio. tons of CO2e have been identified…
Green mobility
Total
City administration
Energyconsumption
Energy production
▪ Biomass-based combined heat and power▪ Land and offshore wind turbines▪ Separation of plastics from waste
▪ Energy retrofitting of existing buildings▪ Low-energy new build▪ Solar PV
▪ City of Cyclists▪ Alternative fuel vehicles (electric, hydrogen)▪ Biogas and hybrid busses▪ Intelligent traffic systems (ITS)
▪ Energy efficiency in own buildings▪ New fuels in municipal vehicle fleet▪ LED street lights
Selected initiatives
New initiatives▪ New initiatives at EU-level (energy, renewables, transport)▪ New initiatives at national level (energy, transport)▪ New initiatives at city-level (construction, transport)
0,9
Million tCO2e per year
0,1
0,1
0,1
1,2
16
… that require massive investments in Copenhagen 2013-2025
17
Public InvestmentsCity of Copenhagen0,4 bn€
Private InvestmentsDirect Investments3,25 bn€
Private InvestmentsEnergy and Climate Investments32,8 bn€
985
On the day the ”green economy” finally arrives
18
Thank you for your attention
19
MORTEN HOJERSpecial Advisor onClimate and Green Growth(+45) 23 39 34 [email protected]
www.kk.dk/climate and www.kk.dk/english