acid rain revisited hubbard brook research foundation
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Acid Rain Revisited Hubbard Brook Research Foundation. Science Links Bridging the Gap between Science and Policy. Outline. Patterns of Emissions and Deposition Forest Ecosystem Effects Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies Conclusions. Patterns of Emissions and Deposition. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Acid Rain Revisited
Hubbard Brook Research Foundation
Science Links
Bridging the Gap betweenScience and Policy
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Outline
• Patterns of Emissions and Deposition
• Forest Ecosystem Effects
• Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies
• Conclusions
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Patterns of Emissions and Deposition
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Time (years)
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allowances allocated for that yearall sourcesPhase I sources
Phase II sources
SO2 Emission Reductions under the Acid Rain Program
9.4 9.3 8.7
5.3 5.44 5.47 5.29 4.94
7.527.817.51
7.076.57
7.036.7917.3
11.210.6 10.2 10.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Em
issio
ns (m
illio
n to
ns) s
9.4 9.3
5.3 5.35.55.4
8.7
4.9
12.513.113.012.5
11.9
15.716.117.3
11.210.6 10.2 10.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Em
issio
ns (m
illio
n to
ns) s
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SO2 Allowance Price Index
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
SO2 Emissions and the Allowance Bank, 1995- 2003
8.7
11.7 13.5
15.0
16.6
21.6
18.818.1
19.9
Allowances allocated that year
Unused allowances from previous year (bank)Actual emissions from affected sources
SO
2 Em
issi
ons
(mil
lion
ton
s)
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1990 emissionsPhase I (1995-1999) average emissionsPhase II (2000-2003) average emissions
scale: 1990 emissions in Ohio were 2.2 million tons
SO2 Emission Reductions, by State
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projected emissions level in the absence of Title IV
8.1
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1990 emissionsPhase I (1996-1999) average emissionsPhase II (2000-2003) average emissions
scale: 1990 emissions in Ohio were 500,000 tons
NOx Emission Reductions, by State
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1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
SO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
Mill
ion
sh
ort
to
ns
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
with Canadian Emissionsw/out Canadian Emissions
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
NO
x E
mis
sio
ns
Mill
ion
sh
ort
to
ns
0
2
4
6
8
Source Area Includes: VT, MA, NY, NH, CT, RI, ME, OH, PA, DC, MD, NJ, DE, MI, VA, WV, QUE, ONT
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SO2 Emissions - 24 hr source area (Million metric tons)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Hub
bard
Bro
ok
Pre
cipi
tatio
n S
O4
(eq
/L)
0
20
40
60
80
Y= 3.82X + 5.73r ²=0.764
NOx Emissions - 24 hr source area (Million metric tons)
0 2 4 6 8
Hub
bard
Bro
okP
reci
pita
tion
NO
3
(eq
/L)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Y= 7.31X - 24.99r ²=0.393
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Forest Ecosystem Effects
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Soil Acid Rain Effects
• Soil S and N enrichment
• Nutrient cation (Ca2+, Mg2+) depletion
• Al mobilization
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Aquatic Effects
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Summary (n=1469)
No. of Lakes (%) Surface area (ha) (%)
pH < 5.0 352 24 2,000 8.4
ANC < 0 µeq/L 388 26 2,650 11
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Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies
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Critical Chemical Indicators for Ecosystem Response to Acidic
Deposition
TerrestrialSoil and soil water
Ca/Al < 1
Soil base saturation < 20%
AquaticSurface waters
pH < 6.0ANC < 50 eq/LAl > 2 mol/L
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SO
4 (
eq/L
)
45
90
135
180
NO
3 (
eq/L
)
20
40
60
80
100
AN
C ( e
q/L)
-40-30-20-10
010203040
pH
4
5
6
Year
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Ali
(m
ol/L
)
02468
101214
Ali
(µm
ol/L)
pH
AN
C
(µeq/L
)N
O3 (
µeq/L
)SO
4 (µ
eq/L
)
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Num
ber of
Lak
es w
ith
Sig
nific
ant Tre
nds
and
Direc
tion
of T
rend
-20
-10
0
10
20
p < 0.05p < 0.10
Adirondack Lakes6/1982-12/2000
n=16
SO4 NO3 S+N CB ANC pH Ali DOC
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Num
ber of
Lak
es w
ith
Sig
nific
ant Tre
nds
and
Direc
tion
of T
rend
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
p < 0.05p < 0.10
Adirondack Lakes6/1992-12/2000
n=48
SO4 NO3 S+N CB ANC pH Ali DOC
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pH
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Nu
mb
er o
f F
ish
Sp
ecie
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20001982-83
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pH (2000)
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Cha
nge
in N
umbe
r of
Fis
h S
peci
es
1982
-200
0
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
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Model Predictions of the Response of Soil and Water
to Acidic Deposition:
Past and Future
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Climatic data•Solar radiation•Precipitation•Temperature
PnET Water balance Photosynthesis Living biomass Litterfall
Net Mineralization
BGC – Surface water Aqueous reactions
Uptake
Deep water flow
Shallow water flow
Weathering
Wet Deposition
Dry Deposition
BGC• Aqueous reactions• Surface reactions
• Cation exchange• Adsorption• Humic binding• Aluminum dissolution/precipitation
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Policy or ProposalNOx
(million short tons)
SO2
(million short tons)Deadline for
Implementation4
Pollutant?
1990 Clean Air Act 4.6 8.9 2010 No
Jeffords Bill S.556 (as amended)
1.5
66% reduction from 1997 levels
2.25
75% reduction fromPhase II levels of 1990 CAAAs
2008 Yes
Smith Bill S.2815 (Clear Skies)
2.1 by 2010
1.7 by 2018
67% of current levels
4.5 by 2010
3.0 by 2018
73% of current emissions
2010 and 2018 3 pollutant
Carper Bill S.843
(Clean Air Planning Act of 2003)
1.87 by 2009-2012
1.7 after 2013
4.5 by 2009-2012
3.5 by 2013-2015
2.25 after 2016
2009, 2013, 2016 3 pollutant
Clinton Bill S.588 Approx. 2.1 in
2004-2006
56% reduction from 1990 levels
Approx. 1.38
70% reduction from 1990 CAAAs levels
Approx. 4.45 by 2007
50% reduction from 1990 CAAAs levels
2004-2006:
2007
No
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SO2 Cap and Trade Program:Expected Annual Costs by 2010