aciplast presentation san jose, costa rica 8-16-13
Post on 14-Sep-2014
286 views
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
An Overview of the U.S. Economy, Plastics Industry and Trade
Michael D. Taylor Senior Director, International Affairs and Trade
ACIPLAST August 16, 2013
San Jose, Costa Rica
Agenda
SPI
U.S. Economy
Manufacturing Sector
Plastics Industry
Trade Flows
Bilateral Trade – U.S.-Costa Rica
NPE2015
Founded in 1937,
SPI is the only U.S. trade association
representing ALL segments of the plastics industry.
The SPI2020 Mission
SPI advances a pro-manufacturing agenda,
strengthens global competitiveness, improves
productivity and pursues zero waste strategies
for the U.S. plastics industry.
Strategic Focus Revolves Around Three Areas
Strategic Elements
• The SPI2020 mission will be accomplished through a
combination of: – Advocating for science and fact-based legislation, regulation, codes
and standards and other public policies where appropriate that promote our nation’s welfare.
– Educating the industry, consumers and policy makers about the benefits of plastics as the preferred and sustainable material.
– Connecting the entire supply chain, from resin and machinery manufacturers, processors, OEMs and consumers who rely on plastics to maintain and enhance their daily lives.
“The economic recovery has continued at a moderate pace in recent quarters despite the strong headwinds created by federal fiscal policy.” -- U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to the House Financial Services Committee on July 17, 2013
U.S. Economy Is Surprisingly Robust
• In a year when tax hikes and “sequester” spending cuts by the federal government were expected to bleed the life out of the nation’s economy: – GDP grew at a 1.8 percent rate in the first quarter.
– The U.S. added an average of 196,000 jobs a month in the first four months of 2013, up from 180,000 in the second half of 2012.
– The DOL reported that unemployment rates declined in 344 of the 372 largest metro areas in April.
– As of June 2, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes were up between 14% and 16% for 2013.
U.S. Economy Is Surprisingly Robust
• The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities rose more-than-expected in April, increasing for the 11th consecutive month, rising to an annualized rate of 12.1% in April from a year earlier, resulting in the highest monthly gains in the history of the index.
• DOC reports that applications for building permits rose 14.3 percent to a rate of 1.02 million, the most since June 2008.
• The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index, which had improved in May, increased again in June, up from 74.3 to 81.4 – the highest since February 2008.
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)—a forward-looking measure of the U.S. economy—rose a healthy 0.8 percent in April, 0.2 percent in May, and remained unchanged in June.
Real GDP Growth
Chart courtesy of NAM
Employment Situation
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e
Mill
ion
s o
f W
ork
ers
Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Housing Market Situation
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Housing Starts Housing Permits New Home Sales
(in Thousands of Units)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Manufacturing Still on the Rise • NAM: “Manufacturing should continue to grow, benefiting from strong
growth in exports, lower energy costs, an improving housing market and increases in consumer spending.” (05/23/13)
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a rise in foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing from $476.5 billion in 2001 to $838.3 billion in 2011. And NAM expects another increase for 2012.
• Boom in energy markets (shale) has spurred new investments by manufacturers. ACC reports that businesses have announced 97 projects representing a cumulative investment of $71.7 billion over the past two years.
• Shale gas development could lead to approximately 1 million additional manufacturing jobs by 2025, according to a study by PwC and the National Association of Manufacturers.
U.S. Manufacturing Still on the Rise
Manufacturing activity worldwide has slowed noticeably. Yet US manufacturing is still expanding at a greater rate than anywhere else in the world!
U.S. Manufacturing Output
Manufactured Durable Goods
Chart courtesy of NAM
Manufacturing Sectors with the Largest Net Employment Gains YTD
182.6
178.7
124.4
46.2
45.0
20.3
11.9
7.3
5.5
2.8
1.1
Transportation equipment
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Plastics and rubber products
Primary metals
Food manufacturing
Miscellaneous nondurable goods…
Electrical equipment and appliances
Miscellaneous durable goods…
Petroleum and coal products
Chemicals
(December 2009 to June 2013, in Thousands of Workers)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Global GDP Forecast by Region
Chart courtesy of NAM
Percentage Growth of Manufactured Goods Exports 2011-2013
Reshoring of U.S. Manufacturing Jobs
• In a survey of American manufacturing companies by the BCG in April 2012, 37% of those with annual sales above $1 billion said they were planning or actively considering shifting production facilities from China to America.
• MIT looked at 108 American manufacturing firms with multinational operations last summer. It found that 14% of them had firm plans to bring some manufacturing back to America and one-third were actively considering such a move.
• A study by the Hackett Group expects the outflow of manufacturing from high- to low-cost countries to slow over the next two years and the reshoring to double during the same time period.
Key Drivers of Reshoring
• Lower labor costs. • Weakening of the dollar. • Even as pay is rising rapidly in China, costs in America
are falling, in particular energy costs. • The workforce is becoming more flexible and
productivity continues to rise. • Rising transport costs are playing a big part. • Advanced manufacturing techniques are boosting
reshoring with the promise to alter the economics of production, making it a far less labor-intensive process.
Shale Gas – A Game Changer
• Shale gas growth is helping to reduce natural gas prices and create a stable supply - US manufacturers will be more competitive than producers in the rest of the world.
• Feedstock: U.S. natural gas; European/Asian mostly oil-based.
• A decade ago, the U.S. was among highest cost producers of ethylene and its resin derivatives; today a complete reversal.
• By 2010 advantage shifted to North America, investments followed.
• Initial investments in ethylene capacity; more recently in derivatives and co-products.
• Shift to ethane feedstock constrained propylene, butadiene supplies; but recent projects announced to produce those.
• As of April 2013, more than $73B shale-related investments announced.
Shale Gas – A Game Changer
• ACC report (May 2012) showed positive impacts of shale gas for the chemistry industry and the 8 natural gas-intensive manufacturing industries, including plastic & rubber products:
– $121 billion in increased output that would directly generate 200,000 high-paying jobs in these 8 manufacturing industries
– An additional 979,000 jobs in the supply chain and elsewhere through indirect and induced economic effects of expanded production from these 8 manufacturing industries…
– …Leading to a total 1.2 million jobs generated from the effects of expanded production (and would generate 1.1 million jobs in construction, capital goods manufacturing, in their supply chains and elsewhere over the course of the investment phase).
The U.S. Plastics Industry - 2012
• Value of goods shipped was more than $373 billion
• Employed 892 thousand workers
• Operated 15,949 facilities in every state of the United States
• Plastics manufacturers spent more than $9.6 billion on new capital equipment
• Plastics still ranks as the third largest sector of U.S. manufacturing
Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the U.S. Plastics Industry” (2013)
Plastics Have Historically Grown Faster than all Manufacturing
• Plastics manufacturing employment grew 0.1 percent per year since 1980.
• The value of manufactured shipments grew by 2.3 percent per year since 1980.
• Productivity grew by 2.2 percent per year since 1980.
Growth Rates: 1980 - 2012
Plastics
Mfg
All
Mfg
Employment 0.1% -1.4%
Real Shipments 2.3% 0.3%
Real Value Added 2.2% 0.7%
Productivity Growth 2.2% 1.7%
Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the U.S. Plastics Industry” (2013)
U.S. Demand for Plastics is Recovering
Apparent Consumption = Shipments + Imports – Exports
Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the U.S. Plastics Industry” (2012)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Machinery Molds Plastic Products Resin
Apparent Consumption (in $ billions)
U.S. Plastics International Trade Flows 2012
Apparent Consumption (in $ billions)
• Industry exports were flat, and imports increased by 7.5 percent.
• Plastics industry exports represented 5 percent of all U.S. merchandise exports.
• The industry’s trade surplus fell 9.4 percent to $14.9 billion in 2012 from $16.3 billion in 2011 due to the relative economic recovery of the U.S. when compared to other countries.
• Exports were at 21 percent of domestic shipments in 2012, down from 2011, as the domestic market grew where the overseas market stagnated.
U.S. Plastics Top Export Markets 2012
Apparent Consumption (in $ billions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mexico Canada China Belgium Japan
23%
21%
8%
4% 4%
U.S
. $
Bill
ion
s
Mexico and Canada remained the U.S. plastics industry’s largest export markets. In 2012, the industry exported $13.6 billion to Mexico and $12.5 billion to Canada. China is the industry’s third largest export market. However, the industry overall, had its largest trade deficit with China — $7.8 billion in 2012.
U.S. Plastics Top Export Markets 2012
Apparent Consumption (in $ billions)
Top Five U.S. Plastic Import Sources 2012
Apparent Consumption (in $ billions)
Canada, Germany and Japan were top import suppliers for resins and machinery. China continued as the top plastics products import supplier, and was also a top supplier for molds. Canada was also a top import supplier for plastics products and molds. Total 2012 imports were $43.7 billion.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
China Canada Mexico Germany Japan
13% 13%
15% 16% 5% U
.S. $
Bill
ion
s
2012 Trade Statistics In 2012:
– U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at $58.5 billion, down 0.1% from 2011
• Resins: $ 33.7 billion (-2.8 percent)
• Products: $ 22.8 billion (+3.6 percent)
• Machinery: $ 1.4 billion (+3.7 percent)
• Molds: $ 583 million (+16.4 percent)
– Plastics imports were up 7.1% to $43.7 billion
– Positive trade balance of $14.9 billion
1st Half 2013 Trade Statistics
During the first six months of 2013:
– U.S. plastics industry exported goods were up 1.8 percent from the same period in 2012
• Resins: $ 17.5 billion (+2.3 percent)
• Products: $ 11.8 billion (+1.8 percent)
• Machinery: $ 684.6 million (-4.9 percent)
• Molds: $ 281.4 million (-5.9 percent)
– Positive trade balance of $7.4 billion
U.S. Exports to Central America 2000-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
20
08
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
U.S
. $ B
illio
ns
Panama Costa Rica Guatemala
Honduras El Salvador Nicaragua
Belize
U.S. Exports to Central America 2012
Panama $9.2 billion
Costa Rica $6.6 billion
Guatemala $5.5 billion
Honduras $5.4 billion
El Salvador $2.8 billion
Nicaragua $1.0 billion
Belize $251 million
Total $31 billion
U.S. Plastics Industry Exports to Central America 2000-2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
20
11
201
2
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
Costa Rica Guatemala El Salvador
Honduras Panama Nicaragua
U.S. Plastics Industry Exports to Central America 2012
Costa Rica $422 million
Guatemala $247 million
El Salvador $180 million
Honduras $165 million
Panama $106 million
Nicaragua $22 million
Belize $3 million
Total $1.1 billion
U.S. Resin Exports to Central America 2000-2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
20
11
201
2
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
Costa Rica Guatemala El Salvador
Honduras Panama Nicaragua
U.S. Resin Exports to Central America 2012
Costa Rica $269 million
Guatemala $185 million
El Salvador $138 million
Honduras $78 million
Panama $46 million
Nicaragua $11 million
Total $729 million
U.S. Plastic Products Exports to Central America 2000-2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
Costa Rica Honduras Guatemala
Panama El Salvador Nicaragua
U.S. Plastics Products Exports to Central America 2012
Costa Rica $128 million
Honduras $84 million
Guatemala $58 million
Panama $57 million
El Salvador $40 million
Nicaragua $10 million
Belize $2 million
Total $383 million
U.S. Plastic Machinery Exports to Central America 2000-2012
0
5
10
15
20
25200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras
Panama El Salvador
U.S. Plastics Machinery Exports to Central America
2012
Costa Rica $21.3 million
Guatemala $2.8 million
Honduras $1.95 million
Panama $1.90 million
El Salvador $1.5 million
Total $29.6 million
U.S. Plastics Industry Imports from Central America 2000-2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
20
11
201
2
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
Costa Rica Honduras Guatemala El Salvador
U.S. Plastics Industry Imports from Central America 2012
Costa Rica $103.9 million
Honduras $17.7 million
Guatemala $15.1 million
El Salvador $14.5 million
Total $151 million
NPE2015 Space Update
Phase One – Pre-Draw is complete • Qualification criteria – SPI Member companies with a Show History of 16
shows or above.
• Applicants – 72 companies requesting 191,000 nsf (net square feet).
• Results – 71 companies secured 217,600 nsf.
• Largest booth in NPE history assigned (24,600 nsf).
• Comparison
1. Space secured is up 10% 2. Assigned versus Applied – 217,600 nsf assigned vs 191,000 nsf applied 3. Average exhibit size – 3,500 nsf
Timeline
• Packets mailed and emailed to past exhibitors (August 12).
• Packets emailed to all prospects (by late August).
• Space Application available at www.npe.org (August 12).
• Applications and down payment due November 15 to be
eligible for Space Draw Lottery.
• Applications received after November 15, 2013 are placed at
bottom of selection category.
• K Show (October) activities include:
1. NPE2015 Reception 2. Domestic and international sales teams will attend 3. Meetings between SPI Staff and Key Exhibitors
Marketing Highlights and Floor Attractions
• International marketing focus segmenting end user markets (automotive, appliance,
building/construction, electronics, medical, packaging, etc.).
• Foster relationships with brand owners, Mission Control Centers for buying teams.
• Educational focus on new technology, process and material focused.
• “Hottest Technologies” area on the floor, co-promoted by Plastics Technology
Magazine.
• Expanded Mold Makers Pavilion to accommodate demand.
• Business of Plastics pavilion and a Processor pavilion.
• Re-formatted Design Center (formerly the Design Competition).
NPE2015 Topline Strategy
Why Attend NPE2015? 835,000 NSF of exhibit space. 1,933 exhibitors. Over 55,000 attendees representing $100 billion in purchasing power. 30 percent of attendees from outside the U.S. and 11 percent from Latin and South America. 87 percent of these attendees either make or influence purchasing decisions. 68 percent of NPE attendees only attended one show that year.
Thank You!
谢谢 Merci Vielen Dank Grazie ありがとうございました
감사합니다 Obrigado Спасибо Gracias teşekkürler