Actionable Intelligence from Multisourced Events

Roy WilliamsCaltech

with S.G.Djorgovski, C. Donalek, A. Drake, M. Graham, A. Mahabal, R. Seaman (NOAO).

• VOEvent

• VORapid

• Skyalert Infrastructure

• Decision = Human + Archive + Machine

please pray for

VAO

What is VOEvent

• XML document according to VO-standard

• Who, Wherewhen, Why, Params• Each event belongs to a Stream

– key-value-semantic records

• Author, Subscriber, Broker functions• Information not Imperative• Follow-ups are other VOEvents

• Connected in citation graph to form Portfolio

Microlensing event (OGLE)

Global Event Authors and Followup

Caltech

eStarExeter

NOAOTucson

PairitelBerkeley

Palomar P60Caltech

Catalina RTSUAriz

Liverpool TelescopeLa Palma

UKIRTHawaii

Stream AuthorPublisherRepositoryRelayFollowup Subscriber

FaulkesHawaii/Australia

OGLE IIIPoland

GCN @ NASA/GSFCSWIFTFermiIntegralAGILE

CTIO/KPNO

LCOGT

MOA

AAVSO

PannSTARRS

VORapidVirtual Observatory Rapid Transients Facility

• Content– VOEvent– Consume

• Browse, Query, Subscribe, Decision

– Author• Streams, Alerts,

Automation

– Portfolio• Annotation, Mining

– Brokering

• Transport– Tier 1

– Broker, Forward– Tier 2

– Applications

please pray for

VAO

Tier1 and Tier2 Event Nodes

• Tier1: • Immediate forwarding, standard & capable protocols

• Tier2:• Subscription service, Repository, Query, Archive,

Machine Learning, etc etc

Broker (Tier1)

Author (Tier2)

Repository (Tier2)

Jabber/XMPPor custom TCP?

please pray for

VAO

MicrolensingOptical transients

Radio transientsX-ray transients

Gamma transientsGrav. waves

Neutrinos

FollowupScheduler

Telescope

AstronomersAmateursStudents

TelescopeTelescope

Event Authors Event Subscribers

International

GCN BrokerAnnotation from archives

Events and annotation

disseminated to subscribers in real time with intelligence

skyalert.org

Stream as Event TemplateTaming Multisourced Data

stream event

made byperson in daytime

made byrobot system at night

skyalert.org

Future .... ASKAP, IceCube LIGO/Virgo, MWA, SkyMapper, Veritas TeV

secondarystreams

skyalert.org

Portfolio of OneFirst Discovery VOEvent

skyalert.org

Groundbased

telescope

Hubble WFPC2

DSS1967

Astronomer’s

Telegram

Lightcurve

Spectrum

Discovery Image

Rich portfolio: Supernova 2007sr in Antennae

skyalert.org

skyalert.org

SDSS archiveuMaggMaguCutoutURLgCutoutURL

Catalina Sky Surveymag1mag2mag3asteroidnessstellaritycutoutURL

Berkeley lightcurveslightcurveURLprobSNprobCV

Palomar 60” follow-upgmagrmagipmagzpmagdatapackageURL

21.4220.96

http://.....http://.....

19.3419.3219.39

1%97%

http://.....

http://......87%12%

19.0718.0318.5718.94

http://.....

Streams(event template)

Events(template instance)

Annotation(linked data)

Original detection

Archive follow-up

Archive follow-up

Telescope follow-

up

join

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Triggers(for action)

subscribers

Event-Action-Event Cycle

Google Sky has VOEvents

skyalert.org

Thanks to Ryan Scranton

WWT Realtime Event Display

skyalert.org

Thanks to Jonathan Fay

Bayesian Learning

• Feature Vectors• Best Recommendation• Combine with Human judgment• Error bars, upper limits, and missing values

• All are part of the prior

• Summing opinions of multiple experts• Some not experts!

• Relevance Vector Machine• Best of training set (most learning)• Tutorial• Escalation to real expert

Building Feature Vector

Mahabal et alarXiv:0810.4527 [astro-ph]

Recommendation for Follow-Up

Sparse data Ambiguous classification best follow-up strategy to reduce confusion

Example: optical light curve with a particular time cadence would discriminate between a Supernova and a quasar,

Example: particular color measurement would discriminate between a cataclysmic variable eruption and a gravitational microlensing event,

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Human Volunteers

• Science Layer– Describe what you see in image– Each person has level of expertise– How to use data most effectively

• Game Layer– Makes people come back– Top 10 ranking etc– Anonymous partner a la gwap.com

Human Computing

• Ask humans to *describe*– not *interpret*

Automated Decision through Tripod of Data

• Archive• nearby radio source escalates

p(blazar)• nearby galaxy escalates p(supernova)

• Human• Crowded field? Artifact present?• Can make follow-up observation

• Machine• Fuzzy center escalates p(host galaxy)• Moving source escalates p(asteroid)• Bobotic follow-up observation

decision

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• Please try skyalert.org• register, then set an alert

• Do you have a stream of astronomical events?(and can I have them)

• Who knows how to make a scalable push network?(can we talk?)

skyalert.org