CONTENTS FOREWORD ............................................................................................................................. 4

Other factors which complicate matters ................................................................................ 4 CO2 improvement aims can cause potential conflicts ....................................................... 4 Some vehicle safety failures result from ageing equipment .............................................. 4

INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 11 Scope .................................................................................................................................... 11

Scope of active safety systems researched ....................................................................... 12 Forecast Horizon .............................................................................................................. 12

Active safety systems - definition ........................................................................................ 12 Links between Active and Passive safety systems .......................................................... 12 Technologies covered by this report. ............................................................................... 13 Market .............................................................................................................................. 15 Audience .......................................................................................................................... 15

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 16 Active safety systems are emerging as effective tools in product differentiation ........... 16 But currently there is a limited commercial argument for active safety systems ............ 16 Low levels of consumer awareness hold back market penetration .................................. 17 Government intervention is yet to be effective ................................................................ 17 There is a lack of accident causation data ........................................................................ 18 The insurance industry is now more keen to give incentives .......................................... 18 Conditions for technology development are far from optimised ..................................... 18 There are significant concerns over reliability ................................................................. 18 Europe and North America are distinctly different markets ............................................ 19 There are conflicting interests between supplier intellectual property protection and rapid market penetration .................................................................................................. 19 Interventions to increase the rate of active safety systems development and deployment........................................................................................................................................... 19

Actions by Car Manufacturers ............................................................................................. 20 Marketing to consumers ................................................................................................... 20 Realignment of R&D resources ....................................................................................... 20 Collaboration on standard setting and testing .................................................................. 20 Common electronic architectures .................................................................................... 20 Lower development risk for key suppliers ....................................................................... 21

Actions by suppliers ............................................................................................................. 21 Marketing, advertising, promotion .................................................................................. 21 Feature decoupling ........................................................................................................... 21 Increasing collaboration ................................................................................................... 21

Actions for governments to increase the rate of active safety systems deployment ............ 21 Pressure on the insurance industry ................................................................................... 22 International cooperation on standards ............................................................................ 22 Reducing the risks of litigation and product liability ....................................................... 22 Better statistical accident causation and system effectiveness data ................................. 22

ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS ROUTEMAP ......................................................................... 23 SPECIAL CRITIQUES ........................................................................................................... 24

1. A critique of the rate of adoption of active safety devices .............................................. 24 Stakeholders’ Aim: increase the rate of adoption of ADAS to reduce fatality rates. ...... 24 Stakeholders’ End Result 2009 ........................................................................................ 24

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2. A critique of the concept of the Intelligent Car versus the Vienna Convention. ............. 25 3. A critique of the safety systems selected: ........................................................................ 25

Appropriateness of systems ............................................................................................. 25 But the reality has to be accepted .................................................................................... 25 Suggested solution ........................................................................................................... 25

4. A critique of the method of information dissemination ................................................... 26 The public continues to lack awareness. Providing information on ASS is primarily left to: ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Where does this leave the component makers? ............................................................... 26 Suggested solution ........................................................................................................... 26

5. A critique of the politics of cost ....................................................................................... 26 Suggested solution ........................................................................................................... 27

THE ROLE OF ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS ..................................................................... 28 The relative positions of each of the various active safety systems in the hierarchy of an accident, are summarised in the following table: Forecasts for Active Safety Systems ..... 28 Forecasts for Active Safety Systems .................................................................................... 29

Active Safety System Market Penetration - European Union ......................................... 29 Active Safety System Market Penetration – United States .............................................. 31

FORECASTS FOR KEY ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS ...................................................... 33 COST VERSUS BENEFIT OF ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS ............................................. 39 DISCUSSION OF KEY ISSUES: THE STAKEHOLDERS .................................................. 41

Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 41 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 42 Vehicle ............................................................................................................................. 42 Driver ............................................................................................................................... 43 Safety Systems and Components ..................................................................................... 43 The role of the EC ............................................................................................................ 44 eSafety Support ................................................................................................................ 45 eSafety Forum .................................................................................................................. 45 TRACE Research Project ................................................................................................ 46 TRACE covered 5 stages of research: ............................................................................. 46 Variances by market ........................................................................................................ 47 Scope of TRACE ............................................................................................................. 47 Variances by driver behaviour ......................................................................................... 48 TRACE conclusions......................................................................................................... 49 eIMPACT ......................................................................................................................... 49 Summary of Combined Results ....................................................................................... 50 EC Regulations, mandation procedures, legislation status and plans .............................. 51

THE ROLE OF NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS (NGOS) & ACADEMIC INSTITUTES ........................................................................................................................... 55

Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 55 Universities, Technical Colleges ..................................................................................... 55 RWTH Aachen................................................................................................................. 55 Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig ........................................ 56 TUM Technical University Munich Germany ................................................................. 57 FHS Hamburg (Hamburg University of Applied Science) Germany .............................. 58 Universität Stuttgart, Germany ........................................................................................ 58 TU Darmstadt, Germany .................................................................................................. 58 Hochschule Karlsruhe Technik & Wirtschaft, Germany ................................................. 58 Lulea University, Lulea Sweden ...................................................................................... 59

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University of Leeds .......................................................................................................... 59 University of Loughborough ............................................................................................ 59 Imperial College London ................................................................................................. 59 Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, Switzerland .............................. 59 VTT Finland..................................................................................................................... 60 Chalmers University Sweden ........................................................................................... 60

Road Safety Test Laboratories and Tracks .......................................................................... 60 Thatcham.......................................................................................................................... 60 MIRA Ltd......................................................................................................................... 61 Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) ................................. 61 Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) ............................................................................ 62 Technische Überwachungs Verein (TUV) ....................................................................... 62 DEKRA ............................................................................................................................ 62 Société Générale de Surveillance (SGS) .......................................................................... 63

Consumer Oriented Lobbies ................................................................................................ 63 Road Safety Lobbies ............................................................................................................ 65 Independent Consultancies .................................................................................................. 66

ADAS ............................................................................................................................... 66 Knibb Gormezano Partners (KGP) .................................................................................. 66

Publications .......................................................................................................................... 66 The Insurance Industry ........................................................................................................ 67 The Car Manufacturers ........................................................................................................ 68 The Component Manufacturing Industry ............................................................................. 70

MARKET ISSUES .................................................................................................................. 71 Insurance Industry Issues ..................................................................................................... 71

Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 71 Summary of findings............................................................................................................ 76

Who is responsible if an active safety system does not perform as it is designed to do? 76 A higher level of adoption of ASS will reduce collision damage, fatalities and injuries and lead to a loss of business for the insurance industry. ................................................ 77 How does the insurance industry assess risk? .................................................................. 77 Risks of Active Safety Systems ....................................................................................... 77 Benefits of Active Safety Systems ................................................................................... 78 In-vehicle data presentation ............................................................................................. 78

Type Approval Issues .......................................................................................................... 80 Testing In Service ................................................................................................................ 81

Changes on Vehicles and Repair Behaviour of Car Users .............................................. 81 Driver Training .................................................................................................................... 83 Consumer Acceptance and Marketing ................................................................................. 84

Driver psychology ............................................................................................................ 84 The Fleet Market Perspective .............................................................................................. 91

EVOLUTION OF ACTIVE SAFETY TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................... 93 Human-Machine Interface (HMI) .................................................................................... 93 Vehicle to Vehicle Technologies (V2V) .......................................................................... 93 Infrastructure To Vehicle Technologies (I2V) ................................................................ 93 Pure Infrastructure Projects .............................................................................................. 94

ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS ................................................................ 95 Accident Reduction Effectiveness Ranking ......................................................................... 95 The Cost-Benefit Relationship According To The Motorist ............................................... 96

The motorist’s perspective: aspirations ........................................................................... 96

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The motorist’s perspective: real world concerns ............................................................. 97 REGIONAL DIFFERENCES .................................................................................................. 98

Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 98 Western Europe .................................................................................................................... 98

Consumer perception and preferences ............................................................................. 98 North America ................................................................................................................... 102 Japan .................................................................................................................................. 104 Brazil .................................................................................................................................. 104 Russia ................................................................................................................................. 105 India ................................................................................................................................... 106 China .................................................................................................................................. 107

MARKET DEVELOPMENT ISSUES .................................................................................. 109 Driving Forces for Change: Influencing the Market .......................................................... 109 The Argument in Favour of Mandatory Regulation .......................................................... 109 Macroeconomic Trends ..................................................................................................... 110 Microeconomic Trends ...................................................................................................... 111 Microeconomic Trends as they affect the Vehicle Manufacturing Sector ........................ 112

Short term....................................................................................................................... 112 Medium term .................................................................................................................. 112 Long term ....................................................................................................................... 112

Technology Progress .......................................................................................................... 113 Accident Rates: An International Comparison. ................................................................. 113 System Cost and Influence on Market Penetration ............................................................ 115

The Influence of Vehicle Segmentation and Market Demand Patterns On Adoption Rates For Active Safety Technologies ........................................................................... 118 Competition Between Active Safety Systems and the Influence On Adoption Rates ... 118

Vehicle Manufacturers’ Perspective .................................................................................. 119 The System Suppliers’ Perspective .................................................................................... 121

The Retail Trade and Specialist or Garage Fitment Service Position ............................ 124 Which Segment Of The Supply Chain Could Benefit From Active Safety Systems? .. 125

Promotion, Advertising, Marketing Issues ........................................................................ 128 Supply Push ................................................................................................................... 128 Demand Pull................................................................................................................... 129 The Tipping Point .......................................................................................................... 130

APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................ 133 GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. 139

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