active sampling for optimizing prediction model reliability · active learning i labels are costly...

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Transdisciplinary Data Science, Minneapolis, 6th of September 2016 Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability Georg Krempl Knowledge Management & Discovery Faculty of Computer Science Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Germany Special thanks to D.Kottke, M.Spiliopoulou, V. Lemaire, Ch. Beyer, T.C. Ha, E. H¨ ullermeier, J. Stefanowski, N. Adams, and B. Pfahringer. 1/47 Active Sampling Knowledge Discovery Management &

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Page 1: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Transdisciplinary Data Science, Minneapolis, 6th of September 2016

Active Sampling forOptimizing Prediction Model Reliability

Georg Krempl

Knowledge Management & DiscoveryFaculty of Computer ScienceOtto-von-Guericke University

Magdeburg, Germany

Special thanks to D.Kottke, M.Spiliopoulou, V. Lemaire, Ch. Beyer, T.C. Ha,E. Hullermeier, J. Stefanowski, N. Adams, and B. Pfahringer.

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Page 2: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Motivation

Big Data, but . . .

I expert’s time is scarce,

I storage & processing capacities are limited

Selection is important

I efficient allocation of limited resources

I sample where we expect something interesting

Our focus

I (unexpected) change: change detection & mining

I “uncertain” regions: active learning

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Page 3: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Preface

Key points

I Using approaches like probabilistic active learning,AL improves the learning efficiency

I Uncertainty sampling is problematic,as it ignores the uncertainty of the model itself

I Balancing exploration & exploitation is important,in particularly in non-stationary environments

I Considering the true posterior in the expectationmight be also beneficial outside probabilistic active learning

Open issues

I Unified concept of “uncertainty” in AL

I Evaluation & performance bounds for AL in streams

I Budget management with unsupervised change detection

I Sample reusability [Tomanek and Morik, 2011] &AL combinations [Beyer et al., 2015]

I Use for other active learning problems(active class/feature selection)

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Page 4: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Active Learning3

Aliases and Historical Remarks

I Optimal experimental design [Fedorov, 1972]

I Learning with queries (later denoted query synthesis) [Angluin, 1988]

I Selective sampling [Cohn et al., 1990]

Active Learning Tasks1

I Labels: Active label acquisition

I Features: Active feature (value) acquisition

I Whole instances: Active class selection(or class-conditional example acquisition)

Active Learning Scenarios2

I Query synthesis, i.e. example is generated upon query

I Pool of unlabelled data U , static, repeated access

I Stream, instances arrive sequentially, no repeated access

1[Attenberg et al., 2011]2[Settles, 2012]3See e.g. [Settles, 2012, Cohn, 2010].

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Page 5: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Active Learning

I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features)

I Active learner controls the labelling process

I Objective: Strategy for selectionof the most valuable labels

I Baseline: Random selection

I AL in streams with static concepts:well-studied, e.g. in surveys by

I [Settles, 2009]: Section onstream-based selective sampling

I [Fu et al., 2012]: Section onAL on streaming data platform

I Our focus: AL in non-stationary streams(selective sampling in evolving streams)

r3 Label Requestsr1

x3

ŷ3

Features

Predictions

x2

ŷ2

x1

ŷ1

y3 Labelsy1

Time

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Page 6: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Overview on Active Learning Strategies

Selected Active Learning Strategies4

I Version Space Partitioning & Query by Committee

I Uncertainty Sampling

I Decision Theoretic ApproachesI Loss Minimisation: Expected Error & Variance ReductionI Probabilistic Active Learning

4Generic, i.e. usable with different classifier technologies.

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Page 7: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Version Space Partitioning5

I Version Space Partitioning [Ruff and Dietterich, 1989]:Selection based on disagreement between hypotheses

I Query by Committee [Seung et al., 1992]:

I Disagreement within an ensemble of classifiers

I Requires constructing a diverse ensemble of classifiers

I Combinations with clustering (mixture models)

Feat

ure

x2

Feature x1

Classifier 1

Classifie

r 2

Disagreement

5See [Ruff and Dietterich, 1989].

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Page 8: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Uncertainty Sampling7

I Information theoretic approach

I Uses classifier’s uncertainty as proxy

I Common uncertainty measures6

I Posterior-based:

Confidence: abs (P(y = +|x)− P(y = −|x))

Entropy −∑

y∈{+,−} p(y |x) log (p(y |x))

I Margin: distance to decision boundary

I Fast: O(|U|), where U is the set of unlabelled instances

I But do these measures really capture the uncertainty?

6See e.g. [Settles, 2012].7See [Roy and McCallum, 2001].

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Page 9: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Exemplary AL Situations

+

++

+++

+

+-

+-+

+-

-

low highnumber of labels (n)

non

-un

iform

un

iform

obse

rved

dis

trib

uti

on

of

labels

(p

III

III IV

I a label’s value dependson the label informationin its neighbourhood

I label informationI number of labelsI share of classes

I uncertainty sampling ignoresthe number of similar labels

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Page 10: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Measuring the Uncertainty

Problem with above measures

I Focus on exploitation, fails on exploration [Beyer et al., 2015]

I “Uncertainty” measures ignore uncertainty of the prediction modelCmp. epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in [Senge et al., 2014]

Extensions: Combined measuresI [Fu et al., 2012]

I uncertaintyI instance correlation (within batch)

I [Reitmaier and Sick, 2013] 4DS approach, considering:I distance to the decision boundaryI diversity of samples in the query setI densityI class prior

I [Weigl et al., 2015]I conflict: overlap of opposing classesI ignorance: proximity of nearest decision boundary

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Page 11: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Decision Theoretic Approaches

Expected Error Reduction[Cohn et al., 1996, Roy and McCallum, 2001]

I Aim: Minimise error after selection & retraining

I Model unknown label realisation as random variable

x∗ = arg minx

EY |L

∑x′∈U

EY |L′={L∪(x,y)}[y 6= y ]

I Better results reported than for uncertainty sampling [Settles, 2012]

I Relies on maximum-likelihood posterior estimate [Chapelle, 2005]

I Performance estimation relies on evaluation set (using L or by self-labelling U)

I High computational complexity: O(|U|2)

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Page 12: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Probabilistic Active Learning

Motivation

I The true posterior in a candidate’s neighbourhood is unknown:

I Explicitly model the uncertainty associated with posterior value:Expectation not only over candidate instance’s label realisation y ,but also over true posterior p in its neighbourhood:

arg maxx

Ep

[Ey|p [performance (L ∪ (x , y))]

]

I The impact of a label is largest in its direct neighbourhood:

I Evaluate change in classification performance only therein

I A label’s influence depends on the number of similar labels to follow:

I Consider not only very next label, but m subsequent similar labels at once

I Active learning under unequal misclassification costs is considered challenging:

I Consider a cost-sensitive performance measure

I Handling large candidate sets (e.g. big pools/data streams):

I Derive a fast, close-form solution for expected misclassification loss reduction

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Probabilistic Active Learning

Limitations

I Separates classifier and active selector(similar to uncertainty sampling)

I Depends on appropriate neighbourhood definitionand probabilistic estimates for ls = (n, p)

I Performance gain is approximated within the neighbourhood(evaluating globally is possible, but computationally costly)

References

I Implementations in Java, Python, MATLAB are available(open source) at http://kmd.cs.ovgu.de/res/opal/

I Optimised Probabilistic Active Learning (OPAL).Krempl, Kottke, Lemaire. Machine Learning 100(2) 2015.

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Optimised Probabilistic Active Learning in a Nutshell

Illustrative Example

-

+

-+

?

I Given: Dataset with labelled ( - / + ) andunlabelled ( ) instances

I Objective: Determine the expected gain oflabelling e.g. the candidate ?

I What label information do we have already?

I Summarise label information in itsneighbourhood:

For example, by using a probabilistic classifier,kernel frequency estimates, label counts, . . .

I Number of labels: n = 2I Share of positives therein

(i.e. posterior estimate): p = 12

I Summarise as label statistics:ls = (n = 2, p = 0.5)

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Page 15: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Probabilistic Active Learning

Probabilistic Gain8

pgain(ls) = Ep

[Ey|p

[gainp(ls, y)

] ]=∫ 1

0 Betaα,β(p) ·∑

y∈{0,1} Berp(y) · gainp(ls, y)dp

with:I ls = (n, p): Label statisticsI y : Candidate’s label realisationI p: True posterior at candidate’s position

I This probabilistic gain quantifies

I the expected change in classification performance

I at the candidate’s position in feature space,

I in each and every future classification there,

I given that one additional label is acquired.

I Weight pgain with the density dx over labelled andunlabelled data at the candidate’s position.

I Select the candidate with highest density-weightedprobabilistic gain.

-

+

-+

?

8See [Krempl et al., 2014].

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Probabilistic Active Learning – Interpretation

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

no labels (n=0)few labels (n=2,p=0.5)^

more labels (n=3,p=2/3)^

many labels (n=11,p=10/11)^

0.5

0.67

0.91

True posterior (p)

Norm

alized

Lik

elih

ood

I Uniform prior: Prior to the firstlabel’s arrival, all values of p areassumed equally plausible.

I A Bayesian approach yields for thenormalised likelihood corresponds abeta distribution with parameters:α Number of positive labels plus oneβ Number of negative labels plus one

I Left: Plot of normalised likelihoodsfor different values of α, β

I The peak of this function becomesthe more distinct, the more labels areobtained.

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Page 17: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Non-Myopic Extension of PAL

Myopic Probabilistic Gain

pgain(ls) = Ep

[Ey[gainp(ls, y)

] ]=∫ 1

0 Betaα,β(p) ·∑

y∈{0,1} Berp(y) · gainp(ls, y)dp

with:I ls = (n, p): Label statisticsI y : Candidate’s label realisationI p: True posterior at candidate’s position

Non-Myopic Extension

I Not a single label is purchased in future, but

I a set of labels according to a given budget m

I We need to optimise performance gain when acquiring this set of labels!

I Brute-Force Approach: Calculate gain for all combinations

I But: Ordering (of arrival) is irrelevantIt suffices to consider the varying number k of positives among m acquired labels

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Non-Myopic Probabilistic Gain

Non-Myopic Probabilistic Gain

GOPAL(ls, τ,m) =1

m· Ep

[Ek

[gainp(ls, k,m)

] ](1)

=1

m·∫ 1

0Betaα,β(p) ·

∑0≤k≤m

Binm,p(k) · gainp(ls, k,m)dp (2)

with:I ls = (n, p): Label statisticsI p: True posterior at candidate’s positionI m: Number of candidates to be acquired (budget)I k: Number of candidates with positive label realisationsI τ : false positive costs (will be explained shortly)

I with performance gain as difference between future and current performance:

gainp(ls, k,m) = perfp

(np + k

n + m

)− perfp(p) (3)

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Page 19: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Cost-Sensitive ClassificationGiven a situation with

I p ∈ [0, 1] true posterior prob. of the positive class in a neighbourhoodI q ∈ [0, 1] share of instances therein that are classified as positiveI costFP = τ ∈ [0, 1] cost of each false positive classification

Misclassification Loss as Performance Measure

MLoss(p, q) = p · (1− q) · costFN + (1− p) · q · costFP = (4)

p · (1− q) · (1− τ) + (1− p) · q · τ = q · (τ − p) + p · (1− τ) (5)

Resulting Cost-Optimal Classification

q∗ =

0 p < τ1− τ p = τ1 p > τ

(6)

Misclass. Loss under Cost-Opt. Classification

perfp,τ (p) = −MLp,τ (p) = −

p · (1− τ) p < ττ · (1− τ) p = ττ · (1− p) p > τ

(7)

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Page 20: Active Sampling for Optimizing Prediction Model Reliability · Active Learning I Labels are costly (i.r.t. features) I Active learner controls the labelling process I Objective: Strategy

Optimised Probabilistic Active Learning

Non-Myopic, Cost-Sensitive Probabilistic Gain

I Combining misclassification loss as performance measure and

I the non-myopic probabilistic gain yields the

I probabilistic misclassification loss reduction

GOPAL(ls, τ,m) =1

m·∫ 1

0

Betaα,β(p)m∑

k=0

Binm,p(k)

(MLp,τ (p)−MLp,τ

(np + k

n + m

))dp

(8)

Closed-Form Solution

GOPAL(n, p, τ,m) =n + 1

m·(

nn · p

)·(IML(n, p, τ, 0, 0)−

m∑k=0

IML(n, p, τ,m, k)

)(9)

IML(n, p, τ,m, k) =

(mk

(1− τ) · Γ(1−k+m+n−np)Γ(2+k+np)Γ(3+m+n)

np+kn+m

< τ

(τ − τ2) · Γ(1−k+m+n−np)Γ(1+k+np)Γ(2+m+n)

np+kn+m

= τ

τ · Γ(2−k+m+n−np)Γ(1+k+np)Γ(3+m+n)

np+kn+m

> τ

(10)

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Probabilistic Gain – GOPAL

Probabilistic Gain for Equal Misclassification Costs

01

23

45

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

observed posteriorp knowledge

n

pro

bab

ilist

ic g

ain

^

I The probabilistic gain in accuracy asa function of ls = (n, p) is

I monotone with variable n,

I symmetric with respect to p = 0.5,

I zero for irrelevant candidates.

I Compare to uncertainty:

(in confidence)const. w.r.t. n:

uncertainty

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

posterior

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GOPAL as function of observed posterior

τ = 0.5

161115

200 0. 25 0. 5 0. 75 1

- 0. 12

- 0. 05

0. 02

0. 09

0. 16

GOPAL

Pr(+|x)^

n- 0. 1

- 0. 05

0

0. 05

0. 1

0. 15

161115

200 0. 25 0. 5 0. 75 1

- 0. 12

- 0. 05

0. 02

0. 09

0. 16

GOPAL

Pr(+|x)^

n- 0. 1

- 0. 05

0

0. 05

0. 1

0. 15

0

0. 2

0. 4

0. 6

0. 8

1 6 11 15 200

e-9

e-8

e-7

e-3

e-4

e-5

e-6

Difference in GOPAL

Pr(

+|x)

^

n

τ = 0.1

161115

200 0. 25 0. 50. 75 1

- 0. 12

- 0. 05

0. 02

0. 09

0. 16

GOPAL

Pr(+|x)^

n- 0. 1

- 0. 05

0

0. 05

0. 1

0. 15

161115

200 0. 25 0. 5 0. 75 1

- 0. 12

- 0. 05

0. 02

0. 09

0. 16

- 0. 1

- 0. 05

0

0. 05

0. 1

0. 15GOPAL

Pr(+|x)^

nPr(

+|x)

^

n

Difference in GOPAL

0

0. 2

0. 4

0. 6

0. 8

1 6 11 15 200

e-9

e-8

e-7

e-3

e-4

e-5

e-6

Plots of the GOPAL as function of observed posterior p = Pr (+|x) and number oflabels n for different cost-rations τ = 0.1, 0.25, 0.5 (rows). The left column shows themyopic GOPAL, the centre column shows the non-myopic GOPAL, and the rightcolumn shows the difference between the two (in logarithmic scale).

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GOPAL as function of observed posterior (2)

I Expected average reduction in misclassification loss in each subsequent(cost-optimizing) classification

I With increasing n (comp. to remaining budget m), the already observed posteriorp is weighted stronger, the difference between expected future IML(n, p, τ,m, k)and current performance IML(n, p, τ, 0, 0) converges towards zero, thus candidatesin well-explored regions become less interesting.

I unequal misclassification costs: GOPAL is not symmetric around τInstead, sampling instances from regions where potentially a more costly error ismade is favoured!

I probabilistic gain is higher in regions where currently instances are classified asnegative, as the possible error therein is more expensive.

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Visualisation of GOPAL-Values

KFE(x, ) KFE(x, ) GOPAL

A B C D E

dx

A B C D E

U.S.GOPAL · dx

p n dx

A .5 6.0 .16B .8 3.6 .15C .8 0.5 .14D .5 0.4 .13E .5 0.1 .02

GOPAL

·1 ·dx

A .0278 .00435B .0011 .00016C .0459 .00617D .0737 .00982E .0817 .00164

Figure: Visualisation of GOPAL-values for τ = 0.5 on a one-dimensional data set with labelled(red resp. green dots) and unlabelled (grey dots) data points. The upper plot shows the kernelfrequency estimates (KFE) for each class and the corresponding GOPAL-value (blue curve). Thelower plot shows the density (grey area) and the density-weighted GOPAL-values (blue curve).Additionally, the negative confidence values from the Uncertainty Sampling approach are plottedfor comparison. For exemplary data points (A-E) the corresponding label statistics and theunweighted (·1) and density weighted (·dx ) GOPAL-values are given in the tables.

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Evaluation – Setup

Experimental Setup

I myopic, cost-sensitive PAL (csPAL), Uncertainty Sampling without (U.S.) andwith self-training (U.S. st), Certainty Sampling (C.S.), Expected Error Reductionwith beta-prior (Chap) or cost-sensitive extension (Marg), non-myopic expectedentropy reduction (Zhao)

I same classifiers (Parzen window classifier with Gaussian kernels)

I implemented in MATLAB and run on the same platform,

I with the same (dataset-specific, pre-tuned) bandwidth parameter,

I on several synthetic and real-world data sets,

I using cross-validation (100 random permutations),

I reporting learning curves in arithmetic mean in misclassification loss, and wins atlearning steps.

I More results are at our website http://kmd.cs.ovgu.de/res/opal/

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Overall Classification Performance

20 labels OPAL vs.

acquired csPAL U.S. U.S. st C.S. Marg1

Chap1

Zhao1

Randτ∗ = 0.10 47% 62%∗ 70%∗ 72%∗ 66%∗ 56%∗ 72%∗ 62%∗

τ∗ = 0.25 51%∗ 63%∗ 75%∗ 88%∗ 81%∗ 62%∗ 70%∗ 65%∗

τ∗ = 0.50 1% 64%∗ 72%∗ 92%∗ 87%∗ 63%∗ 69%∗ 68%∗

τ∗ = 0.75 53%∗ 60%∗ 67%∗ 86%∗ 80%∗ 50%∗ 48%∗ 58%∗

τ∗ = 0.90 42% 61%∗ 66%∗ 77%∗ 75%∗ 53%∗ 57%∗ 62%∗

40 labels OPAL vs.

acquired csPAL U.S. U.S. st C.S. Marg1

Chap1

Zhao1

Randτ∗ = 0.10 43% 55%∗ 71%∗ 75%∗ 69%∗ 62%∗ 69%∗ 57%∗

τ∗ = 0.25 56%∗ 59%∗ 73%∗ 89%∗ 79%∗ 65%∗ 69%∗ 58%∗

τ∗ = 0.50 4% 61%∗ 72%∗ 93%∗ 89%∗ 74%∗ 76%∗ 62%∗

τ∗ = 0.75 57%∗ 64%∗ 71%∗ 90%∗ 81%∗ 59%∗ 56%∗ 54%∗

τ∗ = 0.90 46% 55%∗ 63%∗ 82%∗ 77%∗ 57%∗ 64%∗ 56%∗

Table: Percentages of runs over all data sets, where OPAL performs better than its competitor.Significantly better performance is denoted by ∗, significantly worse performance by †. The usedsignificance level in the one-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test was for both 0.001. Algorithms aremarked with 1 if not every data set could be used in the evaluation due to their long executiontime.

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Runtime

Data OPAL csPAL U.S. U.S. st C.S. Marg Chap Zhao RandSee 1.867 0.254 0.206 0.468 0.162 43.535 51.87 254.8 0.015Che 1.905 0.249 0.201 0.452 0.183 54.897 56.60 319.9 0.016Che2 1.968 0.261 0.199 0.510 0.198 66.282 69.68 440.7 0.015Ver 1.987 0.269 0.202 0.653 0.207 71.126 78.66 451.7 0.015Mam 2.580 0.353 0.268 3.913 0.277 192.86 280.1 1577 0.016Sim 2.827 0.335 0.239 2.422 0.202 242.98 302.6 1641 0.016YeaU 2.993 0.379 0.272 9.318 0.260 285.51 499.9 3050 0.017Aba 7.000 1.001 0.703 136.1 0.706 NaN NaN NaN 0.023

Table: Average execution time (in seconds), rows ordered in ascending data set size. Alldifferences w.r.t. OPAL are significant (level 0.001, one-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test).

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Active Learning in Non-Stationary Environments

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Active Learning in Non-Stationary Environments

Challenges and Open Issues

I Adaptation to Changeexploitation-exploration tradeoff, e.g. [Osugi et al., 2005, Guyon et al., 2011]representativeness and diversity [Fu et al., 2012]

I Limited Computational Resourcesonline processing, limited storage capacitychunk-based vs. instance-wise processing

I Budget Management & Change Detection

I Evaluation & Performance Bounds

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Nonstationarity: Insufficient Exploration and Lock-In

MotivationWhy not simply applyactive learning strategiesfrom static (iid) streams?

I Example:Uncertainty sampling,drifting distributions

I Error is never even noticed!

I Lock-in on outdated hypothesis

I Caveat: Drift might occuranywhere in the feature spaceSee e.g. [Zliobaite et al., 2011]

I Remedy: Sampling from thewhole feature space:budget management

ModelReality

Time 2

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AL in Evolving Streams: Stream Processing

Chunk-Based, Myopic Processing

Motivation: Processing protocol allows data to be processed in chunks,with single-instance labelling requests

Advantage: Usable as wrapper for static approaches

Relevant work: Exemplary approaches

Decision Tree : [Huang and Dong, 2007]SVM : [Lindstrom et al., 2010]

Ensemble : [Zhu et al., 2007, Zhu et al., 2010,Masud et al., 2010, Ienco et al., 2013,Krempl et al., 2015a]

Chunk-Based with Batches

Motivation: Processing protocol requires requests to be made in batches

Advantage: Non-myopic, practical advantages

Challenge: Requires non-myopic selection technique

Relevant work: [Chakraborty et al., 2011, Chakraborty et al., 2014]

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AL in Evolving Streams: Stream Processing

Instance-Wise Processing

Motivation: Processing protocol requires label request to be made immediatelyupon arrival

Advantage: Online processing

Problems: Requires dedicated AL approach & budget management (see below)

Relevant work: I Budget Management [Zhu et al., 2010, Zliobaite et al., 2011,Zliobaite et al., 2013, Kottke et al., 2015]

I [Masud et al., 2010] use outlier detection to monitor changes inregions of previously low density.

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Challenges in Evolving Streams: Budget Management

Development of methods for estimating and controlling the labelling budget over time.

Motivation 1: Estimating the required labelling effort over time:

I Static context: Decreasing labelling efforts through convergenceI Dynamic context: Not necessarily the case...

Motivation 2: Balance of labelling costs over time:

I Simplistic approach: Random sampling of a fixed percentageI More efficient active budget management strategies?

Relevant work: I [Zhu et al., 2010]I Minimum-variance approach for est. number of required instances,I Random sampling for diversity over feature space.

I [Zliobaite et al., 2011, Zliobaite et al., 2013]I Variable uncertainty:

Sampling the least certain instances in a window,and adjusting the window if drift is suspected.

I VU with randomisation:As above, but include randomness for diversity over feature space.

I [Kottke et al., 2015]I Explicit distinction between temporal and spatial selectionI Temporal: Incremental Percentile Filter with trend-correctionI Spatial: Probabilistic Active Learning

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Challenges in Evolving Streams: Change Detection

Change DetectionMonitoring of the feature distribution for changes

Motivation: Unlabelled instances are cheap and their distribution is unbiased.Some changes in the feature distribution might hint to concept drift.

Advantage: Requires no labelled instances

Problems: Changes in posterior might go unnoticed (false negatives),can also trigger false alarms (covariate drift without concept drift).

Relevant work: I [Fan et al., 2004] and [Huang and Dong, 2007] monitor changesin distributions of the leafs of a decision tree

I [Masud et al., 2010] use outlier detection to monitor changes inregions of previously low density.

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Challenges in Evolving Streams: Evaluation & Performance Bounds

Evaluation

Challenge: When to measure the performance?Does early or final performance matter more?Spatio-Temporal evaluation with learning curves?

Relevant work:

Passive,Streams : prequential evaluation [Gama et al., 2013],recovery analysis [Shaker and Hullermeier, 2013]

Active,Static : learning curves, but open issues:[Evans et al., 2013]

Active,Streams : none

Performance Bounds

Challenge: How to model the nonstationary distribution?

Related work: [Yang, 2011] (limited to covariate drift)

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AL for Evolving Streams: Literature OverviewStream Drift Act. Learn. Required

Reference Handling Type Strategy Budget[Fan et al., 2004] online feature triggered Rand fixed, on event

A change detector on P(X ) triggers random sampling, a predefined budget is spent upon change detection.

[Huang and Dong, 2007] chunks feature triggered US fixed, on eventAs above, but Naive Bayes-based uncertainty sampling.

[Zhu et al., 2007] chunks any MinVar QbC fixedFixed proportion of a new chunk is labelled randomly and used to train a new classier, the ensemble variance is used forselecting upon the remaining instances. [Zhu et al., 2010] extends this work and determines required number of labels automatically.

[Masud et al., 2010] chunks any QbC, outlier varyingEnsemble of pseudopoints (labelled clusters) is maintained, labels are requested foroutliers outside all pseudopoint ranges and for instances with high disagreement (QbC).

[Lindstrom et al., 2010] chunks posterior US fixedThe distance to hyperplane of SVM classifier is used for selection.

[Liu and Wang, 2011] online posterior US QbC varyingEnsemble of field classifiers is maintained, for a new instance the ensemble variance is compared to the historical average.

[Chu et al., 2011] online any US managedUse uncertainty of linear probit model, but (1) model uncertainty is incorporated explicitly; (2) use importance weighting for de-biasing.

[Zliobaite et al., 2011] online any US, Rnd managedDiscuss problem of drift in arbitrary location of feature space, discuss several methods for budget management.[Zliobaite et al., 2013] is an extension of this work.

[Ryu et al., 2012] online any QbC, outlier varyingEnsemble: New base classifier is learnt on demand on suspicious samples, which are instances outside the mean-variancerange of previous chunks. Classifier weights are adjusted based on feature distribution similarity.

[Cheng et al., 2013] onlineUse adaptively weighted uncertainty and density scores, no drift detection.

[Ienco et al., 2013] chunks any US,Clustering fixedCombine clustering (for diversity) with uncertainty sampling, feed labels to arbitrary classifier.

[Ienco et al., 2014] online any US+DensityHigh density-focused uncertainty sampling.

[Krempl et al., 2015a] chunks any OPAL+Clustering fixedCombine clustering (for speed+diversity) with OPAL [Krempl et al., 2015b].

[Kottke et al., 2015] online any OPAL+Budget fixedDistinguish spatial and temporal selection, combine percentile filtering with PAL.

Acronyms: Rnd = Random Sampling, US = Uncertainty Sampling, QbC = Query-by-Committee, MinVar = Minimum Variance

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Summary

I Using approaches like probabilistic active learning,AL improves the learning efficiency

I Uncertainty sampling is problematic,as it ignores the uncertainty of the model itself

I Balancing exploration & exploitation is important,in particularly in non-stationary environments

I Considering the true posterior in the expectationmight be also beneficial outside probabilistic active learning

Open Issues

I Unified concept of “uncertainty” in AL

I Evaluation & performance bounds for AL in streams

I Budget management with unsupervised change detection

I Sample reusability [Tomanek and Morik, 2011] &AL combinations [Beyer et al., 2015]

I Use for other active learning problems(active class/feature selection)

I Workshop on Active Learning: Applications, Foundations and Emerging Trendshttp://vincentlemaire-labs.fr/iknow2016/

Thank you for your attention! Questions?37/47 Active Sampling

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