actuariaat dag 2014_v1.4

Maak het meetbaarActuaris van het jaar 2014 conferentie30 september 2014

Servaas Houben

1

Actuariële vaardigheden2Actuaris van het jaar 2014 conferentie – 30 september 2014

Source: ReThink Recruitment – Actuarial Salary Survey 2013

Actuariële vaardigheden

3Actuaris van het jaar 2014 conferentie – 30 september 2014

Kernwaarden: integer handelen, vakkundigheid, zorgvuldigheid, onafhankelijkheid, vertrouwelijkheid, transparantie

Hoezo innovatie?


"If you are not growing you are dying“

Anthony Robbins

Van boekhouder naar risico manager

•Q: what is the difference between an actuary and an accountant?

•A: (after pause): Ehm, I don’t know…•Q: neither do I!

•It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong (Carveth Read)


Van boekhouder naar risico manager


En internationaler…

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2000 2005 2010 2013

Lede

n bu

iten

land

Lede

n N

eder

land

Jaar

Leden AAG in Nederland en buitenland

Nederland Buitenland

Actuaris van het jaar 2014 conferentie – 30 september 2014

Beleids innovatie“Zekerheid” heeft een prijs…

8

Company Date Rescue package Per citizen

Fortis Sep 2008

€ 30 bln € 1.084

RBS, Lloyds, HBOS

Oct 2008 £ 37 billion £ 617

Dexia Oct 20112012

€ 4 bln € 5.5

€ 887

AIG Dec 2012

$ 183.3 billion resulting in $22.7 gain!

$ 594$ 74

Source: Wikipedia, IndexMundi


Prijs van zekerheid

9

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Yiel

d G

reec

e, Ir

elan

d in

%

Yile

d in

% (e

xcep

t Gre

ece,

Irel

and)

Date

10 year government bond yields

US

Germany

Netherlands

ex-NA

Ireland

Greece


Companies come and go•Creative destruction

▫Innovatie door toetreding nieuwe entrepreneurs

•Downfall British Leyland▫Jeremy Clarkson: “What did the Morris

Marina compete against? Walking? The bus?”


Wie betaalt bepaalt?

11

Trainer Start date

End date

Claudio Ranieri Jun-03 May-04

José Mourinho Jun-04 Sep-07

Avram Grant Sep-07 May-08

Luiz Felipe Scolari Jul-08 Feb-09

Ray Wilkins Feb-09 Feb-09

Guus Hiddink Feb-09 May-09

Carlo Ancelotti Jun-09 May-11

André Villas-Boas Jun-11 Mar-12

Roberto Di Matteo Mar-12 Nov-12

Rafael Benítez Nov-12 May-13

José Mourinho Jun-13 present


Wie beslist over bailout?

12

Commissie-De Wit: oud-minister Bos maakte grote fouten bij bankensteun


Transparantie•DNB heeft na de crisis van 2008 nog

steeds geen open beleid over wat te doen bij bailout▫Is de politiek de beste instantie om

hierover te beslissen?


Backtesting

14

30 Jesus said to Peter, “I tell you that before the rooster crows two times tonight, you will say three times that you do not know me.”31 Peter answered even more strongly, “I will never say that, even if I have to die with you!”

Mark 14:27-31


Backtesting15

A little while later the bystanders accused Peter again, “You can't deny that you are one of them, ....”71 Then Peter said, “I swear that I am telling the truth! …I do not know the man you are talking about!”

Mark 14:66-72

A rooster crowed… and Peter remembered (14.72)


Backtesting16Actuaris van het jaar 2014 conferentie – 30 september 2014

De witte vlekken…

1. Verplichtstelling 17

Witte vlekken18

"Moby Dick seeks thee not. It is thou, thou, that madly seekest him!"

Moby-Dick, Ch. 135


Internet als game changer

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# Name Year Country # Name Year Country

1 Steinitz 1886–1894 Austria-HungaryUS 7 Smyslov 1957–1958 Soviet Union

2 Lasker 1894–1921 Germany 8 Tal 1960–1961 Soviet Union

3 Capablanca 1921–1927 Cuba 9 Petrosian 1963–1969 Soviet Union

4 Alekhine1927–1935 France 10 Spassky 1969–1972 Soviet Union

1937–1946 Soviet Union 11 Fischer 1972–1975 US

5 Euwe 1935–1937 Netherlands 12 Karpov 1975–1985 Soviet Union

6 Botvinnik

1948–1957

Soviet Union 13 Kasparov 1985–1993

Soviet Union

1958–1960Russia

1961–1963


Kansen voor actuariaat

20

Wetenschap

+ Vernieuwend

+ Focus

- Klein publiek

- Academische drempels

Opiniërend

+ grotere doelgroep

+ duidelijke verhaallijn

- Niet perse innovatief

- Gebaseerd op data of gut feeling?


Experiences abroad


0

50

100

150

200

250

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Nr o

f eve

nts

Year

CFA UK events 2003 - 2013

nr ofevents

Experiences abroad

•Toename van aantal presentaties/artikelen leidt tot:▫Hogere hitkans▫Automatische innovatie▫Meer participatie


2D revolution


3D revolution?•Alleen entertainment…


3D revolution?•…of ook verdere gevolgen?


26

"One more thing..."


"If you are not growing you are dying“

Anthony Robbins

Vragen?


References and links• BBC news, Starbucks, Google and Amazon grilled over tax avoidance,

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-20288077

• Bobby Fischer's, The Game of the Century, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqbq_bPCzN8

• British Leyland Challenge Highlights - Top Gear – BBC, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf7q8lWEd-o

• Commissie de wit oordeel: http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/10524/Kredietcrisis/article/detail/3238952/2012/04/11/Commissie-De-Wit-oud-minister-Bos-maakte-grote-fouten-bij-bankensteun.dhtml

• Gropp et all, The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, Review of Finance, vol. 18, no. 2 (2014):457-488

• Moby Dick: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moby-Dick

• William McDonnell, Managing Risk: Practical lessons from recent “failures” of EU insurers, December 2002


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-20288077

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqbq_bPCzN8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf7q8lWEd-o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf7q8lWEd-o

http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/10524/Kredietcrisis/article/detail/3238952/2012/04/11/Commissie-De-Wit-oud-minister-Bos-maakte-grote-fouten-bij-bankensteun.dhtml



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moby-Dick



29

About me

Servaas Houben is heading the actuarial

team of ENNIA in Willemstad, Curacao. He

studied econometrics in the Netherlands

and worked in life insurance for the first

four years of his career. Thereafter, he

worked in Dublin and London. Besides

actuarial, Servaas completed the CFA and

FRM qualifications, and regularly writes on

his blog, for CFA digest and (actuarial)

magazines.

Email: [email protected]: http://actuaryabroad.wordpress.com


mailto:[email protected]

http://actuaryabroad.wordpress.com/

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