acucar guarani q1 09/10 earnings presentation

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Q1 09/10 Results August 18 th , 2009

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Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 earnings presentation

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Page 1: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

Q1 09/10 ResultsAugust 18th, 2009

Page 2: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

2

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements related to the prospects of ourbusiness and estimates for operating and financial results. Those related to growthprospects of Açúcar Guarani S.A. are merely projections and, as such, based exclusively onthe expectations of the management concerning the future of the business. Such forward-looking statements depend substantially on changes in market conditions, governmentregulations, competitive pressures, the performance of the Brazilian and internationaleconomies and the industry and are therefore subject to change without prior notice.

Page 3: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

300

500

700

900

Q1

07/0

8

Q2

07/0

8

Q3

07/0

8

Q4

07/0

8

Q1

08/0

9

Q2

08/0

9

Q3

08/0

9

Q4

08/0

9

Q1

09/1

0

3

Growth in sugar prices as aconsequence of the decrease inproduction by major producers, suchas India and EU

Sugar prices closing the quarter at thehighest level in three years, both inUS$ and in R$ terms

Increase in sugar prices alsosupported by the increased netposition of index-funds, speculativefunds and the trading sector

Q1 09/10 Sugar Market Overview

Guarani’s Sugar Average Prices (R$/ton)

Page 4: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

400

600

800

1000

Q1

07/0

8

Q2

07/0

8

Q3

07/0

8

Q4

07/0

8

Q1

08/0

9

Q2

08/0

9

Q3

08/0

9

Q4

08/0

9

Q1

09/1

0

4

Increase of 25% in volume ofhydrous ethanol sold in the domesticmarket (Brazilian Center-south),compared to Q1 08/09, sustained bythe increased flex fuel vehicle fleet

Q1 09/10 ethanol prices were lower incomparison to the previous year due tohigh offer caused by cashrequirements of Brazilian producers

Exports slightly lower: 1 billion litres(-9.4% compared to Q1 08/09) due toreduction in US imports, but withincrease in deliveries to Japan, Indiaand South Korea

Q1 09/10 Ethanol Market Overview

Guarani’s Ethanol Average Prices (R$/m³)

Page 5: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

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9.5% Increase in Volume of Sugarcane Crushed in Q1 09/10

Sugarcane Crushed (MM t)Increase due to own sugar cane crushed

• Strategy to increase plantation lastyear allowed additional supply ofown sugarcane

• Third party sugarcane strategy timelydue to credit crisis

2009/10 Crushing target at 14.8 milliontons

• Brazil: 14.2 million tons

• Mozambique: 0.6 million tons

1.4 1.8

2.72.7

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10

Own 3rd Party

4.54.1

Page 6: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

96146

14590

37 33

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10

Refined Crystal VHP

278 269

6

Strong Increase in Refined Sugar Production and Solid Ethanol Production

Sugar Production (‘000 t)

Ethanol Production (‘000 m³)

Increased refined sugar production to address industrial markets and benefit fromwhite premium

Ethanol production increase in Q1 due to weather conditions that favoredsugarcane allocation to ethanol

Mix to shift towards sugar to benefit from high prices during the crop

22 29

107122

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10

Anhydrous Hydrous

151129

Page 7: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

7

Net Revenue (R$ MM)

Growth in net revenue driven mainly by:

• Increase in average sugar prices in Reais(+50.8%), reaching 703.3 R$/ton

• Increase in sugar sales by 1.7%

• Concentration of sugar sales in thedomestic market (67.7%)

Ethanol revenue down by 18.6%

Guarani’s Net Revenue breakdown was:

Sugar: 64.3%

Ethanol: 28.1%

Energy: 1.7%

Other products: 5.9%

18.1% Increase in Net Revenue Driven by Higher Sugar Prices in Q1 09/10

98151

81

661918

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10

Sugar Ethanol Others

198234

Page 8: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

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Adjusted EBITDA (R$ MM)

Sharp increase in Adjusted EBITDA due to highersugar prices and controlled costs and G&Aexpenses

Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 21.3% versus 8.8% inQ1 08/09

Adjusted EBITDA measured by ton of TRS sold ofR$122.5 in Q1 09/10 (+194.5%)

Sharp Rise in Adjusted EBITDA:R$49.9 Million, +185.1% over Q1 08/09

Adjusted EBITDA Margin1

(1) 2007/08 figures have been reclassified and changed due to law 11638/07, as compared to figures previously disclosed.

17.549.9

8.8%

21.3%

5,0%7,0%9,0%11,0%13,0%15,0%17,0%19,0%21,0%23,0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Margin

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

07/08 08/09 09/10

Page 9: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

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Net Profit (R$ MM)Net Profit: R$ 14.3 million in Q1 09/10, compared

with a net loss of R$26.6 million in the same period ofthe prior year

Net profit impacted mainly by:

• Strong price recovery for sugar (+50.8%)

• Net non-cash FOREX effect of R$86.0 million

Net Profit of R$14.3 million Driven by Strong Prices and Positive FOREX Impact

(27)

14

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10

Page 10: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

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Net debt at R$ 1.1 billion, up 6.4% over theprevious quarter, due to working capitalrequirements

Short-term debt net of cash and cash-equivalentstotaled R$ 233.5 million, representing 37% of totalNet Debt, excluding intercompany loans

The increase in Guarani’s net debt is mainly due toincreased finished products inventories

Net Debt/Adjusted EBTIDA ratio at 4.1x in June,2009 versus 4.3x in March, 09. Excludingintercompany loans, Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDAratio stood at 2.4x

Net Debt per Term1

Net Debt per Currency1

(1) Excludes intercompany loans and cash & cash equivalent

(1) Includes R$112.1 million related to SHL in Mozambique

Net Debt Up but Improved Indebtedness Ratios

Foreign Currency

61%

BRL39%

Current37%

Non-Current

63%

Page 11: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

11

CAPEX: Focus on Sugarcane Plantation, Cost Reduction and Efficiency Programs

CAPEX (R$ MM)1

Continued selectivity on CAPEX: R$52 million inQ1 09/10 compared to R$91 million in Q1 08/09

Focus on plantation CAPEX (R$30 million) toensure adequate raw material availability andproductivity for next crop

Selective industrial CAPEX (R$22 million) toeliminate bottlenecks and further develop marginalcapacity to lower fixed costs at São José and Tanabiplants

CAPEX approved to allow sugar production inTanabi as from next crop

1) CAPEX does not consider maintenance.

61

22

30

30

Q1 08/09 Q1 09/10PPE Planting

91

52

Page 12: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

100

120

140

160

180

30

40

50

60

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9E

09/1

0E

Prod

uctio

n/C

onsu

mpt

ion

(MM

ton)

Inve

ntor

ies

(MM

ton)

Inventories Production Consumption

Source: LMC

1518212427303336

8

10

12

14

16

18

01-A

pr-0

8

01-J

ul-0

8

01-O

ct-0

8

01-J

an-0

9

01-A

pr-0

9

01-J

ul-0

9

cent

s R$

/lb

cent

s US

$/lb

cents US$/lb cents R$/lbQ209 Q110Q109 Q309 Q409

Source: ICE

12

Global sugar deficit expected to continuesupporting sugar prices

Brazilian position favoured by lower output ofmajor producers such as India, China and EU

Weather driving crop yields in India (droughtcaused by weak Monsoons) and in Brazil (heavyrains during winter)

Strong growth in global demand, unaffected bycrisis

Raw Sugar Prices (NY 11)

World Sugar Balance

Sugar Market Outlook: Positive Trend in 08/09 and 09/10 World Crops

Page 13: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

050

100150200250300350

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

'000

uni

ts

Ethanol + Flex-Fuel Gas + Diesel

Q209 Q110Q109 Q309 Q409

Source: Anfavea

13

Ethanol Market Outlook: Consumption Growth Supported by Higher Sales of Flex-Fuel Vehicles

Vehicles Sales per Fuel Type (Brazil)

Domestic Market

Sustained demand from strong sales of flex fuelvehicles

Increased hydrous ethanol consumption due tothe competitive price parity to gasoline at the pump

Prices expected to recover beginning in Q2 09/10

International Market

Increased ethanol prices in the US market due tostronger corn, gasoline and oil prices

Increased exports to Asia and stable sales to theEuropean market

Page 14: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

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Outlook: Guarani Solidly Positioned to SeizeOpportunities and Benefit from a Market Upturn

Sugarcane crushed expected to reach 14.8 million tons in 2009/10 crop versus 14.4million tons in previous crop

Production mix geared towards sugar to allow Guarani to take advantage of the upturn insugar prices

Increased demand for ethanol due to attractive ratio between ethanol and gasolineprices at the pump. Positive price outlook as of second half of 09/10

Plants to take advantage of increased volumes and lower fixed costs per ton produced

Disciplined CAPEX allocation in order to ensure expected sugarcane availability andprofit from rapid pay-back programs

Continued focus on balance sheet strengthening

Positive non-cash effect in P&L of Brazilian Real appreciation vis-à-vis the US Dollar

Strong commitment and support from Tereos, Guarani’s controlling shareholder, toseize opportunities

Page 15: Acucar Guarani Q1 09/10 Earnings Presentation

Thank You!

Reynaldo F. BenitezCFO and Investor Relations Officer

Alexandre L. MenezioInvestor Relations Manager

Felipe F. MendesInvestor Relations Analyst

Renato N. Zanetti NetoInvestor Relations Analyst

Leonardo T. GoesInvestor Relations Assistant

phone: +55 (11) 3544-4900

e-mail: [email protected]

website:www.acucarguarani.com.br/ir