adam jonas - automotive news · pdf fileadam jonas managing director morgan stanley . nothing...

Adam Jonas Managing Director

Morgan Stanley

Nothing below this

point

Guide @ 2.68

Guide @ 1.57

Guide @ 1.97

Subtitle Guide @ 2.64

Guide @ 2.99

Nothing below this point

Nothing below this

point

Guide @ 0.22

Guid

e @

4.7

7

Global Autos: A Wall Street View Automotive News World Congress

Detroit: January 15th, 2013

Adam Jonas, CFA

Managing Director

Global Head of Auto Research 212-761-1726

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013

2012 Global Light Vehicle Demand Growth

75,420 1,086

877

276 334

137 804 (1,127) 1,722

71,311

69,000

70,000

71,000

72,000

73,000

74,000

75,000

76,000

2011

Global

Sales

US W.

Europe

Japan Brazil Russia India China Other 2012

Global

Sales

Global Sales (k units)

Sources: IHS AutoInsight, Morgan Stanley Research


2013 Global Light Vehicle Demand Outlook

Sources: IHS AutoInsight, Morgan Stanley Research

Global Sales (k units)

73,000

74,000

75,000

76,000

77,000

78,000

79,000

2012e Global Sales

US W. Europe

Japan Brazil Russia India China Other 2013e Global Sales

80,000

79,046 880

1,549

390 263

71 (536)

(500) 1,509

75,420


2001 Ford Explorer (True Market Value - $3,389, Fuel Efficiency - 20 MPG HWY)

Sources: Edmunds, Morgan Stanley Research


2001 Honda Accord (True Market Value - $3,848, Fuel Efficiency - 29 MPG HWY)



2001 Ford Taurus (True Market Value - $2,683, Fuel Efficiency - 25 MPG HWY)



Credit: #1 Driver of Auto Demand

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 Improvement in Auto Credit Quality Drives Auto Lending

Sources: Moody’s, Capital One, Edmunds AutoObserver, Morgan Stanley Research

Oct-97 Oct-00 Oct-03 Oct-06 Oct-09 Oct-12

70

85

100

115

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

Y/Y % Change

12 per. Mov. Avg. (ACQ Index)

%

ACQ Index


US Housing Starts: Strong Correlation With Auto Credit & Key End Market Segments

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 US Housing Starts vs. US Light Vehicle Sales: 89% Correlation Since 1980

Sources: Census, Autodata Morgan Stanley Research

500

900

1,300

1,700

2,100

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012e 10

12

14

16

18

US Housing Starts

US Light Vehicle Sales

Millions

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 US Housing Starts vs. US Pickup Sales: 95% Correlation Since 1990

Sources: Census, Autodata Morgan Stanley Research

Thousands

500

900

1,300

1,700

2,100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e

1,300

1,800

2,300

2,800

3,300

US Housing Starts

US Industry Pickup Sales Thousands

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 US Industry Pickup Sales as % of Total US Light Vehicle Sales

Sources: Autodata, Morgan Stanley Research

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Pickups Market Share

Long Term Average

%

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 US Pickups: Trailing 12M Market Share and Estimated Sales Channels

Sources: Autodata, Morgan Stanley Research

Pickups

13.6%

CUVs

20.7% SUVs

9.2%

Cars

50.6%

Vans

5.8%

Agriculture

10%

Other

35%

Housing

25% Construction

20%

Energy/

Mining

10%

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 US Subprime Auto Approvals vs. Housing Starts: 96% Correlation Since 2002

Sources: Census, CNW, Morgan Stanley Research

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-02 Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12

25

75

125

175 US Subprime Auto Approval Rate

US Housing Starts (Unadjusted, Trailing 12M Avg)

% Thousands


US Auto Loan-to-Value Recovered to >90%


Loan-to-Value (%) Y/Y % Change

75

80

85

90

95

100

Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Y/Y % Change

Auto Loan-To-Value


Annual Value of SAAR (incl. Incentives) vs. SAAR

Sources: Autodata, Edmunds, Morgan Stanley Research

Millions $ Billions

8

10

12

14

16

18

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

200

250

300

350

400

450

Value of SAAR

SAAR

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 Europe’s ‘Car-Less’ Recovery: Why Own a Car….

Light vehicles per 1000 driving age population

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

United States

Japan

W.Europe

New EU Members

Russia

Brazil

China

India

Korea

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 …That you don’t use? Miles Driven Has Stopped Rising Since 2004

Note: Reunification

Million Km Driven, Passenger Vehicles

0

2,00,000

4,00,000

6,00,000

8,00,000

10,00,000

Miles driven peaked in 2004

1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010

France

UK

Italy

Germany

Spain


• Our base case assumes average age stabilises at c.8.7 years, modestly above the 8.4 years of today. We

note that cars are being scrapped later, and exports of used vehicles outside Europe are declining

• We believe consensus estimates implicitly assume a rejuvenation of the fleet towards c.8 years.

• Our bear case models a US style, continued ageing of the fleet, and implies a further 10-15% downside to

volumes.

Europe’s Cars Are Not in Urgent Need of Replacement

Sources: HIS, BEA, US Census, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Global Insight – IHS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

EU Average Vehicle Age Assumptions

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Implied by IHS Forecast

MS Base Case

MS Bear Case

MS Bull Case

EU Light Vehicle Forecasts (m units)

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

IHS Forecast

MS Base Case

MS Bull Case

MS Bear Case

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 This is About More than 2013: Europe Loss Making Until 2016e?

Sources: Euromonitor, Global Insight – IHS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e).

EU Sales -4% in ’12e; Muted Recovery Thereafter

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

W.Europe SAAR (3mm avg.)

MS Forecast

SAAR ex scrappage

Monthly SAAR

Without scrappage schemes SAAR would

have troughed on Mar-09 at 9.6m (-26%

yoy)

We are forecasting a trough at ~11-11.5m

units in mid-13e

subdued 2014-15e recovery due to: i) bank de-leveraging of up to €2.5trn ii) household de-leveraging iii) young avg. fleet age iv) weak demographic support

Sep-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Oct-12


GM vs. Ford

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 Value of Opel vs. disposal cost of Opel (per share)

Sources: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research

29

(10)

(3)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Total GM Value Opel Value Opel Disposal Cost

($)


Daimler price reaction to Chrysler divestiture


45

50

55

60

65

70

Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07

Daimler Stock Price

Daimler doesn’t rule out sale of Chrysler

Cerberus Capital and Blackstone Group

submit bids. Magna joins the race too

Cerberus acuires 80.1% stake in Chrysler and

related financial services business

Investor Kirk Kerkorian re-enters the race 10 years after his first failed attempt


BMW price reaction to Rover divestiture


22

28

34

40

Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00

BMW Stock Price

Reports emerge of Rover sale to

Alchemy Partners (Rover Cars) and

Ford (Land Rovers)

Phoenix a rival bid for Rover

Consurtium puts in a rival bid for Rover

Phoenix completes

acquisition of Rover Cars

Alchemy ends negotiations with BMW

Phoenix begines talks

with BMW

Ford completes acquisition of Land Rover

prototype template (5428278)\screen library_new_final.ppt 1/17/2013 Ford’s Europe Pre-tax Profits, 2001 – 2016e ($bn)

Sources: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

(0.3)

(0.5)

(1.1)

0.2 0.1

0.5

1.0 1.1

(0.1)

0.2

(0.0)

(1.6) (1.5)

(0.9)

(0.1)

0.2

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$


US Model Renewal Monitor (by Volume): D3/Nissan/BMW See Highest Refresh Rates

Source: Ward’s, Autodata, Morgan Stanley Research

% Volume to be Replaced in Next 3 Years

0

30

60

90

D3 J3 Korea Europe

3

25 12

47 31

14 9

31

9

38 8 37

12 28

23

11

28

14 17

22 33

30 4 19

16

31

8

26 27

62 66

79

63

77

53 51

68

50 44

2012

2013

2014


Appendix: Valuation Methodology

Ford Motor (F, $13)

Price target of $17 is composed of 3 items: (1) We can pay roughly $15.40 per Ford share under our proprietary hypothetical LBO valuation model while achieving an IRR approaching 25% - a level we have measured to be a typical hurdle rate for Auto companies under this methodology. This is BEFORE tax NOLs and based on group exit EBIT margins of 5.5% and an exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.0x (2016e) including legacy liabilities. (2) Includes NPV of Ford deferred tax NOLs beyond 2011 = $2 per Ford share. (3) A negative $1.00 dilution adjustment.

General Motors (GM, $29)

Price target of $47 is composed of 5 items: (1) $30 per GM share for the core business under our proprietary hypothetical LBO valuation model with an IRR of nearly 25% – a level we have measured to be a typical hurdle rate for Auto companies under this methodology. This is BEFORE tax NOLs and based on group exit OP margins of 4.5% and an exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x (2017e) including legacy liabilities. (2) $9 per share of NPV from GM’s deferred tax NOLs beyond 2012, calculated using a 14% discount rate. (3) $5 per share from GM’s Chinese JVs, which was calculated using the Dividend Discount Model assuming 2.8% growth and a 13% discount rate. (4) $0.4 per share for GM’s non-core equity stakes. (5) $3 per share for GM Financial (at 1x Price/Book). Our base case assumes a protracted ownership of Opel with losses well in excess of $1bn annually.


Auto OEM risks:

• Weaker than expected demand resulting from macro-economic uncertainty, especially in Europe

• Price pressure resulting from competition

• Deterioration of consumer credit

• Spike in gas prices

• Stricter than expected government emissions standards

Auto supplier risks:



• Raw material inflation

• Oil price volatility

Rental risks:



• Fall in used car prices

• HTZ and DTG transaction overhang

• Leisure travel trends

• Business travel trends

Valuation Risks


Morgan Stanley is acting as financial advisor to Scania AB ("Scania") in relation to the possible combination of MAN SE and Scania as announced on 15 November 2010. Scania has agreed to pay fees to Morgan Stanley for its financial services. Please refer to the notes at the end of the report. In accordance with its general policy, Morgan Stanley currently expresses no rating or price target on the above names. This report and the information herein are not intended to serve as an endorsement of the proposed transaction.

This report was prepared solely upon information generally available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate and complete. This report is not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Please refer to the notes at the end of this report.

Morgan Stanley is acting as sole financial adviser to PSA Peugeot Citroen SA ("Peugeot") in relation to their strategic alliance with General Motors Co., as announced on February 29, 2012. The proposed acquisition is subject to requisite regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. Peugeot has agreed to pay fees to Morgan Stanley for its financial services that are contingent upon the consummation of the proposed transaction. Please refer to the notes at the end of the report.

Morgan Stanley is acting as financial advisor to General Motors Co. ("GM") in connection with the offer to provide select GM U.S salaried retirees a lump-sum payment and other retirees with a continued monthly payment securely administered and paid by The Prudential Insurance Company of America, a Prudential Financial Inc. company, as announced June 1, 2012.

The transactions are subject to regulatory review. GM has agreed to pay fees to Morgan Stanley for its financial services. Please refer to the notes at the end of the report.

Morgan Stanley is acting as financial advisor to General Motors Company ("GM") in connection with GM's agreement to purchase 200 million shares of GM common stock held by the U.S. Treasury for $5.5 billion, as announced on December 19, 2012. GM has agreed to pay fees to Morgan Stanley for its financial services. Please refer to the notes at the end of the report


The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A., and/or

Morgan Stanley Mexico, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. As used in this disclosure section, "Morgan Stanley" includes Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC,

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A., Morgan Stanley Mexico, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. and their affiliates as necessary.

For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan

Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley

Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA.

For valuation methodology and risks associated with any price targets referenced in this research report, please email

[email protected] with a request for valuation methodology and risks on a particular stock or contact your investment

representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA.

Analyst Certification

The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and

that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this

report: Adam Jonas, Ravi Shanker.

Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.

Global Research Conflict Management Policy

Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at

www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.

Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies

As of December 31, 2012, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered

in Morgan Stanley Research: Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, Daimler, FIAT, Hyundai Motor, Suzuki Motor, Tesla Motors Inc., Zipcar Inc.

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Baoxin Auto Group, FIAT, Ford

Motor Company, General Motors Company, Hyundai Motor, PSA Peugeot-Citroen, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, Toyota Industries, Toyota Motor,

Volkswagen.

Disclosures

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies


Disclosures (cont.)

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Autoliv, Avis Budget Group Inc, BMW,

BorgWarner Inc., Continental, Daimler, EXEDY, FIAT, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Hyundai

Motor, Meritor Inc, Porsche, PSA Peugeot-Citroen, Renault, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, Stanley Electric, Tenneco Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., Toyota

Industries, Toyota Motor, TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., Volkswagen, Zipcar Inc.

In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Aisin Seiki, Autoliv,

Avis Budget Group Inc, BMW, BorgWarner Inc., Bridgestone, Brilliance China Automotive, Calsonic Kansei, Cheng Shin Rubber, China Zenix Auto

International, Continental, Daihatsu Motor, Daimler, Denso, EXEDY, FIAT, Fiat Industrial, Ford Motor Company, Fuji Heavy Industries, General Motors

Company, Great Wall Motor Company Limited, Hankook Tire Worldwide, Hino Motors, Honda Motor, Hyundai MOBIS, Hyundai Motor, Isuzu Motors,

Johnson Controls, Inc., Keihin, Kia Motors, Koito Mfg., Mazda Motor, Michelin, Mitsubishi Motors, NHK Spring, Nissan Motor, NOK, Pirelli & C. SpA,

Porsche, PSA Peugeot-Citroen, Renault, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, Sonic Automotive Inc, Stanley Electric, Sumitomo Rubber, Suzuki Motor,

Takata, Tenneco Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., Toyoda Gosei, Toyota Boshoku, Toyota Industries, Toyota Motor, Unipres, Valeo S.A., Volkswagen, Volvo,

WeiChai Power, Yamaha Motor, Zhongsheng Group Holdings, Zipcar Inc.

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Aisin

Seiki, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc, Autoliv, Avis Budget Group Inc, Baoxin Auto Group, BMW, BorgWarner Inc., China Motor Corp.,

Continental, Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, Dana Holding Corp., Delphi Automotive PLC, Denso, FIAT, Fiat Industrial, Ford Motor Company,

General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Hyundai Motor, Lear Corporation, Meritor Inc, Michelin,

Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan Motor, Porsche, Renault, Sumitomo Rubber, Takata, Tenneco Inc., Toyota Motor, TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.,

Volkswagen, Xinyi Glass, Yulon Motor, Zhongsheng Group Holdings.

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship

with, the following company: Aisin Seiki, Autoliv, Avis Budget Group Inc, Baoxin Auto Group, BMW, BorgWarner Inc., Bridgestone, Brilliance China

Automotive, Cheng Shin Rubber, China Zenix Auto International, Continental, Daimler, Denso, FIAT, Fiat Industrial, Ford Motor Company, General

Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Great Wall Motor Company Limited, Hankook Tire Worldwide, Honda Motor, Hyundai MOBIS,

Hyundai Motor, Johnson Controls, Inc., Kia Motors, Koito Mfg., Mazda Motor, Meritor Inc, Michelin, Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan Motor, Pirelli & C. SpA,

Porsche, PSA Peugeot-Citroen, Renault, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, Sonic Automotive Inc, Suzuki Motor, Tenneco Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., Toyota

Industries, Toyota Motor, TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., Valeo S.A., Volkswagen, Volvo, WeiChai Power, Zhongsheng Group Holdings, Zipcar Inc.


Disclosures (cont.)

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past

has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: Aisin Seiki, American Axle & Manufacturing

Holdings Inc, Autoliv, Avis Budget Group Inc, Baoxin Auto Group, BMW, BorgWarner Inc., China Motor Corp., Continental, Cooper Tire & Rubber

Company, Daimler, Dana Holding Corp., Delphi Automotive PLC, Denso, FIAT, Fiat Industrial, Ford Motor Company, Fuji Heavy Industries, General

Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Honda Motor, Hyundai MOBIS, Hyundai Motor, Johnson Controls,

Inc., Koito Mfg., Lear Corporation, Lithia Motors Inc., Meritor Inc, Michelin, Mitsubishi Motors, NHK Spring, Nissan Motor, Porsche, PSA Peugeot-

Citroen, Renault, Sumitomo Rubber, Suzuki Motor, Takata, Tenneco Inc., Toyota Motor, TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., Valeo S.A., Volkswagen,

Xinyi Glass, Yulon Motor, Zhongsheng Group Holdings.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC makes a market in the securities of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc, Asbury Automotive Group Inc, Autoliv,

AutoNation Inc., Avis Budget Group Inc, BMW, BorgWarner Inc., Carmax Inc, China Zenix Auto International, Cooper Tire & Rubber Company,

Daimler, Dana Holding Corp., Delphi Automotive PLC, Fiat Industrial, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber

Company, Group 1 Automotive, Inc, Harman International Industries Inc., Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Honda Motor, Hyundai Motor, Johnson Controls,

Inc., Lear Corporation, Lithia Motors Inc., Magna International Inc., Meritor Inc, Penske Automotive Group, Inc, Sonic Automotive Inc, Tenneco Inc.,

Tesla Motors Inc., Toyota Motor, TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., Zipcar Inc.

The equity research analysts or strategists principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based

upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment

banking revenues.

Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do business that relates to companies/instruments covered in Morgan Stanley Research, including market making,

providing liquidity and specialized trading, risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading, fund management, commercial banking, extension of credit,

investment services and investment banking. Morgan Stanley sells to and buys from customers the securities/instruments of companies covered in

Morgan Stanley Research on a principal basis. Morgan Stanley may have a position in the debt of the Company or instruments discussed in this report.

Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions..


STOCK RATINGS

Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated or Underweight (see definitions below).

Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the

equivalent of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since

Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley

Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as

investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings)

and other considerations.

Global Stock Ratings Distribution

(as of December 31, 2012)

For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside

our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we

cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative

weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy

recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Not-Rated to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively.

Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC)

Stock Rating Category Count

% of

Total Count

% of

Total IBC

% of Rating

Category

Overweight/Buy 1103 37% 436 41% 40%

Equal-weight/Hold 1301 44% 497 46% 38%

Not-Rated/Hold 108 4% 27 3% 25%

Underweight/Sell 478 16% 111 10% 23%

Total 2,990 1071

Disclosures (cont.)


Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual

circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan

Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.

Analyst Stock Ratings

Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe,

on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage

universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the average total return of the

analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage

universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.

Analyst Industry Views

Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the

relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant

broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant

broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index;

Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index.

Disclosures (cont.)


Important Disclosures for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC Customers

Citi Research publications may be available about the companies or topics that are the subject of Morgan Stanley Research. Ask your Financial

Advisor or use Research Center to view any available Citi Research publications in addition to Morgan Stanley research reports.

Important disclosures regarding the relationship between the companies that are the subject of Morgan Stanley Research and Morgan Stanley Smith

Barney LLC, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or any of their affiliates, are available on the Morgan Stanley Smith Barney disclosure

website at www.morganstanleysmithbarney.com/researchdisclosures.

For Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. specific disclosures, you may refer to www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures and

https://www.citigroupgeo.com/geopublic/Disclosures/index_a.html.

Each Morgan Stanley Equity Research report is reviewed and approved on behalf of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. This review and approval is

conducted by the same person who reviews the Equity Research report on behalf of Morgan Stanley. This could create a conflict of interest.

Other Important Disclosures

Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC and its affiliates have a significant financial interest in the debt securities of Aisin Seiki, American Axle &

Manufacturing Holdings Inc, Avis Budget Group Inc, BMW, BorgWarner Inc., Bridgestone, Continental, Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, Daimler,

Denso, EXEDY, FIAT, Fiat Industrial, Ford Motor Company, Fuji Heavy Industries, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company,

Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Hyundai Motor, Johnson Controls, Inc., Kia Motors, Mazda Motor, Meritor Inc, Michelin, Nissan Motor, Porsche, PSA

Peugeot-Citroen, Renault, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, Suzuki Motor, Tenneco Inc., Toyota Motor, Valeo S.A., Volkswagen, Yamaha Motor.

Morgan Stanley is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice

within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Morgan Stanley produces an equity research product called a "Tactical Idea." Views contained in a "Tactical Idea" on a particular stock may be

contrary to the recommendations or views expressed in research on the same stock. This may be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies,

market events, or other factors. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to Client Link at

www.morganstanley.com.

Disclosures (cont.)


Morgan Stanley Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Morgan Stanley Research has been prepared without regard to the

circumstances and objectives of those who receive it. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and

strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on an

investor's circumstances and objectives. The securities, instruments, or strategies discussed in Morgan Stanley Research may not be suitable for all

investors, and certain investors may not be eligible to purchase or participate in some or all of them. Morgan Stanley Research is not an offer to buy or

sell any security/instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. The value of and income from your investments may vary because of changes in

interest rates, foreign exchange rates, default rates, prepayment rates, securities/instruments prices, market indexes, operational or financial conditions

of companies or other factors. There may be time limitations on the exercise of options or other rights in securities/instruments transactions. Past

performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. If

provided, and unless otherwise stated, the closing price on the cover page is that of the primary exchange for the subject company's

securities/instruments.

The fixed income research analysts, strategists or economists principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received

compensation based upon various factors, including quality, accuracy and value of research, firm profitability or revenues (which include fixed income

trading and capital markets profitability or revenues), client feedback and competitive factors. Fixed Income Research analysts', strategists' or

economists' compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital markets transactions performed by Morgan Stanley or the profitability or

revenues of particular trading desks.

Morgan Stanley Research is not an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument or to participate in any

particular trading strategy. The "Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies" section in Morgan Stanley Research lists all companies

mentioned where Morgan Stanley owns 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the companies. For all other companies mentioned in

Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley may have an investment of less than 1% in securities/instruments or derivatives of securities/instruments of

companies and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in Morgan Stanley Research. Employees of Morgan Stanley not involved in the

preparation of Morgan Stanley Research may have investments in securities/instruments or derivatives of securities/instruments of companies

mentioned and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in Morgan Stanley Research. Derivatives may be issued by Morgan Stanley or

associated persons.

With the exception of information regarding Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Research is based on public information. Morgan Stanley makes every

effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. We have no obligation to tell you

when opinions or information in Morgan Stanley Research change apart from when we intend to discontinue equity research coverage of a subject

company. Facts and views presented in Morgan Stanley Research have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals

in other Morgan Stanley business areas, including investment banking personnel.

Disclosures (cont.)


Morgan Stanley Research personnel may participate in company events such as site visits and are generally prohibited from accepting payment by the

company of associated expenses unless pre-approved by authorized members of Research management.

Morgan Stanley may make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report.

To our readers in Taiwan: Information on securities/instruments that trade in Taiwan is distributed by Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited ("MSTL"). Such

information is for your reference only. Information on any securities/instruments issued by a company owned by the government of or incorporated in

the PRC and listed in on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong ("SEHK"), namely the H-shares, including the component company stocks of the Stock

Exchange of Hong Kong ("SEHK")'s Hang Seng China Enterprise Index is distributed only to Taiwan Securities Investment Trust Enterprises ("SITE").

The reader should independently evaluate the investment risks and is solely responsible for their investment decisions. Morgan Stanley Research may

not be distributed to the public media or quoted or used by the public media without the express written consent of Morgan Stanley. To our readers in

Hong Kong: Information is distributed in Hong Kong by and on behalf of, and is attributable to, Morgan Stanley Asia Limited as part of its regulated

activities in Hong Kong. If you have any queries concerning Morgan Stanley Research, please contact our Hong Kong sales representatives.

Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation or

a solicitation to trade in such securities/instruments. MSTL may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments.

Morgan Stanley is not incorporated under PRC law and the research in relation to this report is conducted outside the PRC. Morgan Stanley Research

does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in the PRC. PRC investors shall have the relevant qualifications to

invest in such securities and shall be responsible for obtaining all relevant approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registrations from the relevant

governmental authorities themselves.

Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated in Brazil by Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.; in Japan by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and, for

Commodities related research reports only, Morgan Stanley Capital Group Japan Co., Ltd; in Hong Kong by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which

accepts responsibility for its contents); in Singapore by Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan

Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal

responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research); in

Australia to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act by Morgan Stanley Australia Limited A.B.N. 67 003 734 576,

holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents; in Australia to "wholesale clients" and "retail

clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act by Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of

Australian financial services license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents; in Korea by Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul

Branch; in India by Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited; in Indonesia by PT Morgan Stanley Asia Indonesia; in Canada by Morgan Stanley

Canada Limited, which has approved of and takes responsibility for its contents in Canada; in Germany by Morgan Stanley Bank AG, Frankfurt am

Disclosures (cont.)


Main and Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, regulated by Bundesanstalt fuer

Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); in Spain by Morgan Stanley, S.V., S.A., a Morgan Stanley group company, which is supervised by the Spanish

Securities Markets Commission (CNMV) and states that Morgan Stanley Research has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of

conduct applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations; in the US by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, which accepts

responsibility for its contents. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, disseminates in the

UK research that it has prepared, and approves solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, research which

has been prepared by any of its affiliates. Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services

Authority, also disseminates Morgan Stanley Research in the UK. Private UK investors should obtain the advice of their Morgan Stanley & Co.

International plc or Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management representative about the investments concerned. RMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary)

Limited is a member of the JSE Limited and regulated by the Financial Services Board in South Africa. RMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary) Limited is a

joint venture owned equally by Morgan Stanley International Holdings Inc. and RMB Investment Advisory (Proprietary) Limited, which is wholly owned

by FirstRand Limited.

The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai

Financial Services Authority (the DFSA), and is directed at Professional Clients only, as defined by the DFSA. The financial products or financial

services to which this research relates will only be made available to a customer who we are satisfied meets the regulatory criteria to be a Professional

Client.

The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (QFC Branch), regulated by the Qatar

Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (the QFCRA), and is directed at business customers and market counterparties only and is not intended for

Retail Customers as defined by the QFCRA.

As required by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey, investment information, comments and recommendations stated here, are not within the scope of

investment advisory activity. Investment advisory service is provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory concluded

between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and clients. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on

the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return

preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely to this information stated here may not bring about outcomes that fit your

expectations.

Disclosures (cont.)


The trademarks and service marks contained in Morgan Stanley Research are the property of their respective owners. Third-party data providers make

no warranties or representations relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any

damages relating to such data. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P.

Morgan Stanley bases projections, opinions, forecasts and trading strategies regarding the MSCI Country Index Series solely on public information.

MSCI has not reviewed, approved or endorsed these projections, opinions, forecasts and trading strategies. Morgan Stanley has no influence on or

control over MSCI's index compilation decisions. Morgan Stanley Research or portions of it may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the

written consent of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed

form. Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.

Morgan Stanley Research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form.

Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.

Disclosures (cont.)


©2013 Morgan Stanley

The Americas

1585 Broadway

New York, NY 10036-8293

United States

+1 212 761 4000

Europe

20 Bank Street, Canary Wharf

London E14 4AD

United Kingdom

+44 (0)20 7425 8000

Japan

4-20-3 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku

Tokyo 150-6008

Japan

+81 (0) 3 5424 5000

Asia/Pacific

1 Austin Road West

Kowloon

Hong Kong

+852 2848 5200

adam jonas - automotive news · pdf fileadam jonas managing director morgan stanley . nothing...

Documents