Adapting to to a Changing Climate

David Schmidt, PE

University of Minnesota

• Definitions and Terminology• Framework • Examples

Outline

Changing Agriculture

Why Change (Adapt)?Profitability

Policy or RegulationOther

We are Adaptingto Climate

Profitability

Definition

Adaptation: Adjustment or preparation of natural or human systems to a new or

changing environment which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

(EPA)

Definition

Risk Management: The process of assessing risk and acting in such a

manner . . . so as to avoid or minimize loss associated with such risk. (Webster’s)

Resilience Short Term

AdaptationLong Term

Practical Definition

ParksDrought Resilience

Short Term

ParksDrought Adaptation

Long Term

Resilience vs AdaptationShort Term vs Long Term

Climate Impact Categories

Farm Inputs

Animal Production

Farm Logistics

Farm Exports

Farm Inputs

Short Term Long TermIncrease Feed Storage Capacity

Crop or Pasture InsuranceWater Conservation

Multi-Sourcing

Pasture ImprovementsInstall or modify Irrigation

Feed, Water, Young Stock

Animal Production

Short Term Long Term

Animal health, growth, and reproduction

Monitoring Heat and HealthHot Weather Feeding Plans

Reproduction PlansInsurance?

Genetics

LogisticsManure Handling, Transportation, Employees

Short Term Long Term

Backup Power SystemVentilation Maintenance

Animal Handling ProtocolsManure Application and TimingEmergency Response Planning

New Ventilation/Cooling SystemNew Building with Cooling

Expand Manure Storage

Farm Exports

Short Term Long TermContracting

Ag Policy ChangesInsurance

Farm Diversification

Markets

Photo: StarTribune

ExamplesChanges due to Climate and Weather

Rest of the Story

• Lots with shade (24 sq feet per head) had 0.2% death loss

• Lots with no shade averaged 4.8% death loss

• Other contributing factors– Weight of animals– Color of animals– Direction of slope on lots

Weathering Drought with Cow-Calf Grazing System (Daybreak Ranch, SD)

Five Point Drought Plan• Increase stored and standing

forages – diversification of grass species

• Changed grazing management to build resilience in soils and grasses (moisture and erosion)

• Store more hay• Monitor rain events• Adjust stocking density

Weathering Drought (Agriculture.com, 2013)

Geothermal Swine Gestation Barn in Western Minnesota

• 650 gestation to wean facility• Very Long Term Planning• Increased pigs per sow• Improved Health• Significant investment

Beef Herd Genetics Texas

Trends in Farm Genetics based on climate

Southwest MN Confinement Beef

• Tired of fighting the weather– Snow, cold, rain and mud, heat

waves

• Labor shortage• Moved over 2/3 of animals

inside

Southwest MN Filtered Barn

Finishing barnPathogen ProtectionClaimed Results for piglets• 10% improvement in ADG• 50% drop in mortality

How to Decide?

Benefit-Cost Analysis

Which of these systems is most profitable?

Benefit-Cost Analysis

Cost of Damage (Benefits)

Cost

to A

void

Dam

age

Decision Reality

Evaluated their own financialsTalked to farmers in the area to get costs and benefitsLearned from mistakesBuilt a new and improved design

Goal is Long Term Profitability

Understand Your Climate

Understand Your Farm Vulnerabilities (Data)

Evaluate Your Options Short and Long Term

Decision Reality

Adaptation Audit

Impacts Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4

Heat Stress Management Cooling System

Diet Genetics

Water Availability

New water source

Water conservation

Diversification of Crops

?

Manure Construct new Storage

Timing of Application

Cover storage ?

Identify and Evaluate Options

Changing Agriculture

How will agriculture change in the next 100

Changing Agriculture

??Agriculture in

2050 or 2100?

For More InformationCourse Reading and Project Website www.animalagclimatechange.org

Livestock and PoultryEnvironmental Learning Center

Project Support

This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

www.animalagclimatechange.org

National Lead: University of Nebraska

Regional Partners: University of Georgia; Cornell University; University of Minnesota; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Washington State University.

Project Partners

Our Mission Animal agriculture in a changing climate fosters animal productionpractices that are: environmentally sound and economically viable,and that create resiliency for animal producers and their partners.