ADAPTATION BEHAVIOR ON THE FRONTLINE OFCLIMATE CHANGE AND ACCELERATING SEA-LEVEL RISE

Survey Responses From Decis ion Makers Serving the Florida Keys:Federa l , Sta te , Regiona l and Local Manageme nt Pers onn e l,Env ironme ntal Specialis ts , Policymakers and Commun ity Leaders

NASA MODIS

Evan Flugman and Pallab Mozumder, PhDThe Program for Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Events

at Florida International University June 2009

Slivers of land amidst the nation’s premiere marine ecosystem,

the Florida Keys provide unique insights into the emerging

challenges associated with adaptation to global climate change

and accelerating sea-level rise.

Rising seas and extreme hydrometeorological events

(tropical cyclone activity, storm surge and other disturbance events)

threaten to exceed the resilience of numerous socioeconomic and ecological systems,

in the Florida Keys, including the world’s third largest barrier reef,

and fundamentally undermine traditional decision-making strategies and

management regimes.

A major information-action gap exists today in our understanding of climate

change and accelerating sea-level rise and how to proceed with adaptation.

Climate Change-related events have already cause significant adverse impacts

in the Florida Keys

Moving from theoretical risk assessments to real-world adaptation requires

cognitive and behavioral changes, at the individual and institutional level,

among the general public, the private sector as well as decision makers.

The Adaptation Gap

Coastal communities should be anticipating profound and multidimensional challenges

to local socioeconomic and ecological systems and management regimes.

Challenges involving “novel, unintuitive processes”

including gradual, creeping changes (with delayed, indirect, even hidden impacts),

manifested globally and over long time scales;

punctuated by abrupt change and extreme events (with immediate and direct impacts),

realized locally and over short time scales.

Challenges “surrounded by uncertainty and couched in unfamiliar terminology

in ways that are hard to grasp, much less evaluate.”

Fischhoff, 2001

Unintuitive, Uncertain and Unfamiliar…Unprecedented

The Real Conundrum We Face…

“The problem, a large one, is that such harms [might] not be cognitively

available to citizens…until it is too late (Sunstein, 2006).”

That is to say, by the time citizens realize we need to do something about

climate change, the time to do something may have passed.

Response options will be more limited and costly than proactive actions,

and adverse impacts will be more painful.

“For these potentially catastrophic risks

whose prevention requires long-term investment

there are built-in obstacles to serious regulatory efforts

(Sunstein, 2006).”

Bayesian Updating and Predictive Infe rence

Given decision makers ability to ‘learn through experience’

(e.g., experimentation, observation, assessment and refinement),

and tap reservoirs of institutional memory

(i.e., extrapolate from existing knowledge structures built upon previous learning),

their risk perceptions are more robust to detect the signal-to-noise

of climate change.

In the context of survey research and climate change,

decision makers’ valuations can provide functional guidance

(e.g., interpretation, clarity, alternatives and innovations)

for integration along the individual and institutional learning continuum,

here in the Florida Keys and in vulnerable coastal locations worldwide.

Study Objective s

By analyzing how decision makers serving the Florida Keys (Federal, State, regional

and local management personnel, environmental specialists, policymakers and

community leaders) are anticipating and planning for the aforementioned challenges

we attempt to provide information and programmatic approaches (decision-support

tools) useful for reducing the information-action gap, enhancing adaptive capacity,

minimizing adverse impacts in the Florida Keys and beyond.

Andy Newman

The Survey Instrument

–5 sections, 37 questions

–Inc luding the lates t peer rev iewed science

–Extensively tes ted

Sample Select ion

–845 total personnel throughout the Florida Keys

–Only Monroe Keys , including Dry Tortugas , NMS

Data Collection

–Online survey, with anonymous participation

–over an approximately two month period (June and July, 2008)

–225 responses…

Quick Overview of Research Methodo logy

Figure 1. Surve y Respondents by Profe ssion

EnvironmentalSpecialists

Planning, Engineering, Permitting & Enforcement

Undeclared & Other

Administration,Program and

ResourceManagement

Elective Office, Emergency Management, Community Development & Social Services

15 yearsAverage

Experience

Figure 2. Surve y Respondents by Affi l iation

FWC, DEP, DET

NOAA, EPA,USFWS, USGS,NPS, USACE, NWS

Nature Conservancy,Audubon Society,Reef Relief, etc.

Marathon, Key West, Islamorada, etc.

Monroe,

FKMCD

FKAA

Mote , MarineLab etc.

SFWMD

Figure 3. Sociodemographic Characteristics

B. AgeA. Gender

C. Education

BachelorsDegree

Master’sDegree

Figure 4. Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts and Responses

Figure 5. Concern About Climate Change in the Florida Keys

Figure 6. Perceptions Regarding the Economic Threat of aSignificant Sea-Level Rise in the Florida Keys

Figure 7. Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts Projected for the Florida Keys

Figure 8. Development of a Formal Adaptation-Action Planin the Florida Keys

Barriers to Adaptation in the Florida Keys

Figure 9. Insufficient Budget

Figure 10. Lack of Direction and Leadership

Barriers to Adaptation (Continued)

Figure 11. Insufficient Staff Time & Resources

Figure 12. Lack of Perceived Importance to Public Officials

Figure 13. Resource Needs to Support Adaptation in the Florida Keys

Figure 14. Will ingness to Support a Proposed ‘Community Adaptation Fund ’ for the Florida Keys

Figure 15. Willingness to Support Funding Mechanisms to Contribute to a‘Community Adaptation Fund’ for the Florida Keys

Adaptation Needs an Inst itut iona l Architecture…

In the face of rising vulnerability, bold new strategies, regulatory mechanisms and

institutional arrangements must be pursued to assist coastal communities adapt in asustainable fashion:

– Vulnerability and resilience knowledge

– professional adaptation training

– adapted tax, subsidy and insurance policies

– investment in physical and social infrastructure

– zoning laws and building codes

– novel funding mechanisms

– public outreach and adaptation training

– updated decision-making criteria

– organized decision-support

The Climate Change Commi tme nt: Near and Long-Term

“Doing so requires a commitment to humility

(i.e., we experts still have something to learn)

and to democracy

(i.e., the public needs to grow as we do).”

Fischhoff, 1990

Political wil l, fi nancial and human capital…

Areas for Further Research

•Household preferences for adaptation planning

•Business Contingency Planning

•Impacts of climate change on recreation and tourism in the Florida Keys

Funding Support

• College of Arts and Sciences at Florida International University (FIU)

• Healey Endowment Grant - University of Massachusetts at Amherst

Andy Newman

Thank You