STRENGTHENING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Cecilia Conde Tom WilbanksCenter for Atmospheric Sciences Oak Ridge National Laboratory

UNAM, Mexico USA

UNFCCC Workshop on Methodologies for

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation andUNDP/ GEF National Communications Support

Programme Workshop on an A daptation Policy Framework

St. Adele, Quebec, Canada

June 2001

Adaptation CapacityHow can it be strengthened?

Preserve current “adequate” and improve it

Current climate, climate change, (and possible changes in climate variability)

Socioeconomic current conditions and trendsSustainable development policy (Compromise: Equity; no - regrets).

in the context of:

Preserve and Improve• Forecasts, Climate information and

warning systems Climate must be one element in decision

making (as info in new seeds, or new technology) of stakeholders, policy makers in the priority regions/sectors.

•Flexibility: possibility to choose on a set of adaptation measures

•Inter: disciplinary, sectorial, institutional collaboration

Preserve and Improve• Financial and human resources

•Technology and infrastructure

•Institutions, responsibility and effectiveness

•Integrated national/regional/local actions

•Organizational capacity

Other constraints ($, skills, info, alternative choices, social / legal inaccurate estimation risks, short term gains preferred) :

.Adaptation Capacity. (V. 9. Pag. 33, AFP)

* Conflicts between adaptation measures. Sectors (industy - agriculture - livestock- forestry), regions (N -S, urban - rural, countries)

* Lack of confidence in government or scientific proposals

Bridge: empirical (traditional,local) vs. Scientific knowledge; Social vs natural sciences; ...

Open databases, access to community members

for surveys. Results presented in brochures. Conferences to younger

students

Oral tradition, confidence in the elders or leaders

Lack of information

> 9 workshops between U, G, P. Meetings and conferences in counties to describe forecast and discussion of possible

alternatives

Rich traditional knowledge of crop managements, seeds, environment

Lack of skills, training, access to

technology

Financial resources from. Universities (U), Government agencies (G), producers (P).

Community solidarity as a tradition. Shared costs between family or community

Lack of financial resources or access to credit

Tlaxcala Project Communities AFP page 33

Tlaxcala Project Communities AFP page 33

Changes in crops (maize to oats) was a one - year success. It was not repeated the next years. U. of Tlaxcala: experiments on alternative crop production, using climate information before planting

Short gains have meant security for many years

Short term gains may be preferred to long term security

The first forecast 1998: very accurate. The other two forecasts where not that good but did not had a negative impact in the farmers interest. Anchored in 1998 impression?

Traditional forecasting methods are many times incorrect, but does not affect “business as usual” practices.

Incorrect or inaccurate estimates of risk

Poorer farmers have made almost all the possible adaptations they could. Successful experience in 1998 showed that the forecast should be delivered with crop and financial possibilities

Resistance to change. Bad previous experiences with change (seeds, pesticides, etc), incentives for adoption of alternatives that conflict with risk management priorities of farmers

Lack of alternative choices

  Smallest State in the CountryDensely Populated (4 times National Average)

Population Growth of 3.2 % (>1.2% National Average)

>> Soil Erosion << Water Availability  

* Agriculture occupies 84% of state’s land area;

Rainfed: 92%; Maize Production: 53%; Averaged Yields: 2 ton/Ha

85% land units have less than 5 Ha Rainfed Maize Production in Spring -Summer season

Country Study, Phase II: Tlaxcala State. Case Study

Tlaxcala

Tlaxcala Project Organization

Biology - Agronomy Atmospheric Physics, Biology, Geography

Center for Biological Sciences Research UAT State

Center for Atmospheric Sciences, UNAM

National

Universities

Rural Development Public

Produce A.C.- Tlaxcala Private

Producers

National Institute for Forests and Agriculture Research – Tlaxcala (INIFAP - Tlaxcala)

State

National Institute of Ecology – Minister of Environment, Natural Resources and Fisheries

(INE – SEMARNAP)

Federal

Government