adaptation to climate change : challenges for farmers and small towns in the us midwest
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Adaptation to Climate Change : Challenges for Farmers and Small Towns in the US Midwest. Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Department of Geological and Atmospheric Science Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Eugene S. TakleProfessor
Department of AgronomyDepartment of Geological and Atmospheric Science
Director, Climate Science ProgramIowa State University
Ames, IA 50011
House Environmental Protection Committee Iowa LegislatureDes Moines, IA
21 February 2012
Adaptation to Climate Change:Challenges for Farmers and Small Towns in
the US Midwest
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Outline What are we already adapting to?
Temperature Precipitation Humidity
Current agricultural adaptation practices
Adaptation challenges for rural communities
Using recent climate records to establish a world view for visioning climate futures
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Iowa State-Wide Average Data
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Des Moines Airport Data
Caution: Not corrected for urban heat island effects
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Des Moines Airport Data
Caution: Not corrected for urban heat island effects
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Des Moines Airport Data
1974: 7
1977: 8
1983: 13
1988: 10
2011: 0
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Des Moines Airport Data
1974: 7
1977: 8
1983: 13
1988: 10
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 23 years
2011: 0
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Iowa State-Wide Average Data
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30.8”
34.0”10% increase
Iowa State-Wide Average Data
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30.8”
34.0”10% increase
Iowa State-Wide Average Data
2 yearsTotals above 40”
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30.8”
34.0”10% increase
Iowa State-Wide Average Data
2 years 8 yearsTotals above 40”
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Cedar Rapids Data
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28.0” 37.0”32% increase
Cedar Rapids Data
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28.0” 37.0”32% increase
Cedar Rapids Data
Years with more than 40 inches
1
11
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“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
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Cedar Rapids Data
6.0 days67% increase3.6 days
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Cedar Rapids Data
3.6 days 6.0 days67% increase
0
Number of Years with More than 8 Occurrences
9
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Photo courtesy of RM Cruse
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Amplification of the Seasonality of PrecipitationSpring
WinterSummer
Fall
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Amplification of the Seasonality of PrecipitationSpring
WinterSummer
Fall
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21.2 => 25.3 inches (22% increase) 12.1 => 10.5 inches (13% decrease)
Amplification of the Seasonality of PrecipitationSpring
WinterSummer
Fall
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Iowa Agricultural Producers are Adapting to Climate Change:
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being
installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination
failures Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist
conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions, thereby reducing fuel costs HIGHER YIELDS!! Is it genetics or climate? Likely some of each.
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Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest
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You are here
Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest
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Today
You are here
Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest
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TodayPast
You are here
Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest
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TodayPast Future
You are here
Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest
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TodayPast Future
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You are here
Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest
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TodayPast Future
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
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Measured past
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
Future will return to something in the past
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Future will be like average of the past
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
Future will return to something in the past
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Future will be like average of the past
Future will be like today
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
Future will return to something in the past
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Future will be like average of the past
Future will be like today
Current trend will continue
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
Future will return to something in the past
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Future will be like average of the past
Future will be like today
Current trend will continue
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
What does the best available science have to say?
Future will return to something in the past
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Future will be like average of the past
Future will be like today
Current trend will continue
You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?
Based on climate models, climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that the future will be more extreme than today
Future will return to something in the past
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Future will be like average of the past
Future will be like today
Future will return to something in the past
Current trend will continue
Future will be more extreme than today
Best Available Science
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TodayPast Future
Measured past
Volcanoes are the only known natural cooling mechanism of the last 100 years that can offset the known global temperature increases due to greenhouse gases
Best Available Science
Future will be like average of the past
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Measured past
Offsetting current global temperature increases due to greenhouse gases by known natural causes will require about 5 major volcanoes per decade.By 2030 this rises to about 10/decade
2030
Best Available Science
Future will be like average of the past
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For More Information:
Climate Science ProgramIowa State University
http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/
takle/[email protected]
Iowa Flood CenterUniversity of Iowa
http://www.iowafloodcenter.org/[email protected]
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Past
Measured past
Cooling the Climate by Natural Processes
Currently it would take about 5 major volcanoes per decade to offset GHG warming
By 2030 it will take about 10 major volcanoes per decade to offset GHG warming