adapting to future hurricane risk under climate change uncertainty: developing and implementing...
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Adapting to Future Hurricane Risk Under Climate Change Uncertainty:
Developing and Implementing Robust Strategies for a More Resilient New Orleans.
David Groves, PhD, Rand Corporation; Jordan Fischbach, PhD, Rand Corporation; Henry Willis, PhD, Rand Corporation; Lauren Andrews, Rand Corporation; David Johnson, Rand
Corporation; Amy E Lesen, PhD*, Dillard University; Earthea Nance, PhD, University of New Orleans; Mark Davis, J.D., Tulane University; Courtney Hill, Dillard University.
5 April 2013
HBCU Student Climate Change Conference
Dillard University
Funding provided by the NOAA SARP program
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Study Explored Three Components of Managing Long-term, Uncertain Risks
1. New Orleans flood risk assessment
2. Risk mitigation decision-support for New Orleans
3. Risk communication to support locally-managed risk mitigation programs
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Study Explored Three Components of Managing Long-term, Uncertain Risks
1. New Orleans flood risk assessment
2. Risk mitigation decision-support for New Orleans
3. Risk communication to support locally-managed risk mitigation programs
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NOLArisk Model Estimates Flood Risk toNew Orleans from 2011-2060
• BUILDS ON OTHER MODELS USED BY FEMA AND OTHER AGENCIES
• Included climate change data in the model, which is different from other models used to this point
Allows decision makers to:• Test location-specific strategies• Consider a wider range of uncertainty than recent Army Corps
estimates
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Model Covers Many Scenarios and MeasuresUncertainties Policy Options
Coastal degradation by 2060Relative sea level rise (RSLR in mm/year)Protection system maintenanceResidential growth rate (homes/yr)Growth dispersion (in/out of OM basin)Program participation rateProgram lengthEnforcement parameter Induced development multiplier Elevation cost multiplierBuyout/easement cost multiplierAmphibious housing cost multiplier
Lift slab-on-gradeElevate existing pier-foundationSecond-story conversionDemolish and reconstruct on-siteAmphibious housingBuyoutsPermanent easementsDry flood proofingBarriers/bermsFacility relocation
Different modeling approaches Storm damage scenarios
Flood hazards moduleFlood consequences moduleMitigation strategies module
100, 400, and 1,000-yr. equiv. ann. damagesExpected annual damagesImplementation costsCost effectiveness (400-yr. risk vs. cost)Benefit-cost ratio
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Legend
100-year damage in 2060 (low/low scen., 2009$)$0
$1-8 million
$8-16 million
$16-32 million
$32-64 million
$64-128 million
>$128 million
Lake Pontchartrain
Mississippi River
St.Bernard Parish
Jefferson Parish
0 1 2 3 40.5Miles±
LACPR “low/low scenario” assumptions:• Relative sea level rise = 2 mm per year (0.1 m by
2060)• No additional landscape degradation• Declining population (-0.32% per year)
Under Favorable Assumptions, Estimates for 100-yearFlood Damage in 2060 Remain the Same as in 2011
FrenchQuarter
Lower 9th
Ward
New Orleans East
Lakeview Gentilly
Viavant / Venetian Isles
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Legend
100-year damage in 2060 (adverse scen., 2009$)$0
$1-8 million
$8-16 million
$16-32 million
$32-64 million
$64-128 million
>$128 million
Lake Pontchartrain
Mississippi River
St.Bernard Parish
Jefferson Parish
0 1 2 3 40.5Miles±
Adverse scenario assumptions:• Relative sea level rise = 10.7 mm per year (0.5 m by 2060)• Substantially degraded landscape (81% of LACPR worst-case)• Increasing population (0.62% per year)
Under Less Favorable Assumptions, Damage Increases
FrenchQuarter
Lower 9th
Ward
New Orleans East
Lakeview Gentilly
Viavant / Venetian Isles
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Study Explored Three Components of Managing Long-term, Uncertain Risks
1. New Orleans flood risk assessment
2. Risk mitigation decision-support for New Orleans
3. Risk communication to support locally-managed risk mitigation programs
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We Worked With the New Orleans branch of the Louisiana Governor’s Office of
Homeland Security and Emergency Management
• Provide support implementation of New Orleans Master Plan as part of FEMA mitigation grant program
• Develop web-based tool to enable city staff members to evaluate analysis results
– Assess potential effect of different mitigation strategies– Analyze wide range of plausible future conditions
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… Against Scenarios Reflecting Uncertainties
Uncertainties• Coastal degradation by 2060• Relative sea level rise (RSLR in
mm/year)• Protection system maintenance• Residential growth rate
(homes/yr)• Growth dispersion (in/out of OM
basin)• Program participation rate• Program length• Enforcement parameter • Induced development multiplier • Elevation cost multiplier• Buyout/easement cost multiplier• Amphibious housing cost
multiplier
254 different combinations of scenarios
Scenarios
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Exploration Over Neighborhood Reveal Areas of High Risk and Mitigation Potential
Consider aspecific neighborhood:Tall Timbers / Brechtel
100-yr Equivalent Annual Damage
400-yr Equivalent Annual Damage
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Additional Elevation Reduces Residual Risk Under Nominal Assumptions…
400-year damages100-year damages
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…but Much Higher Damages Are Estimated Under Other Plausible Future Scenarios
400-year damages100-year damages
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Study Explored Three Components of Managing Long-term, Uncertain Risks
1. New Orleans flood risk assessment
2. Risk mitigation decision-support for New Orleans
3. Risk communication to support locally-managed risk mitigation programs
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Risk Communication Must Give People What They Need To Make Informed Decisions
• Present best available understanding of risk– Be honest and open about uncertainty– Reveal what can be done to reduce risks– Discuss what residual risks will remain
• Address all issues that people feel are relevant– For example, how might new elevation standards affect
neighborhood livability?
• Identify and correct common misconceptions
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We used the Mental Models Approachto Risk Communication
1. Describe the “expert view” of the problem
2. Conduct open-ended interviews eliciting people’s beliefs about the problem
3. Contrast expert and public views and refine the “expert model”
4. Draft, evaluate and revise communication materials
Source: Morgan et al, 2002
We completed the first three steps of this process
We completed the first three steps of this process
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Expert Model Describes Factors Affecting Decisions About Mitigating Flood Risk
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We Interviewed 20 New Orleans Homeowners• Age
– 31-40yrs (3)– 41-50yrs (3)– 51-60yrs (11)– >61yrs (3)
• Race– African American (9)– Caucasian (11)
• Education– At least BA/BS degree (10)– Less than BA/BS degree (10)
• Gender– Female (9)– Male (11)
• Race– African American (9)– Caucasian (11)
• Flooded during Katrina (13)
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Preliminary Analysis Suggests Several Hypotheses About Risk Communication
• Interview protocol revealed discussions of the entire expert model
– 80%-100% of expert model topic areas mentioned across interviews
• Several topics may be not relevant to decisions or poorly understood, for example
– National flood programs (10%)– Link to sea level rise (5%)– Link to coastline maintenance (15%)
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Some Concepts Mentioned Were Outsideof the Expert Model
• Belief that Katrina flooding may have been caused by human action (there is historic precedence for this – 1927 flooding)
– Must address these interactions (environmental and climate justice work)
• Perception of inequity in protection across race or economic status– Must address these inequities (environmental and climate
justice work.
• Belief that public doesn’t have enough information about choices– Must address unmet demand for risk communication
• Ownership and use affects decision-making.– Is property inherited and owned outright?– Is property rented or lived in?– These incentives may have import for program design and
implementation
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Summary• Modeling and analysis can help risk managers account
for long range, uncertain risks
• Mental models approach can identify topics to address through risk communications
• Models, analysis, and risk communication can be used in an integrated manner
• Opportunities exist to extend these findings– Apply method in other areas (e.g., Miami or
Charleston)
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Future Work• Participatory and collaborative work with local
communities
• Look further into decision-making processes of local residents
• Continue work with Governor’s Office of Homeland Security on how to communicate risk to residents and increase participation in hazard mitigation programs
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