adapting urban water systems to climate change - a handbook for decision makers at the local level

8/4/2019 Adapting Urban Water Systems to Climate Change - a Handbook for Decision Makers at the Local Level

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A ak

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AdAptingurbAn wAter systems

to climAte chAnge


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Imprint

iclei ea saa gh | Gino Van Begin responsible

AnneClaire Lotus ICLEI European Secretariat

Carol Howe UNESCOIHE Institute or Water Education; Barbara Anton, Ralph Philip, Daniel Morchain ICLEI European Secretariat

AnneClaire Lotus, Barbara Anton, Ralph Philip ICLEI European Secretariat

rkka d | gak d & V Kka | Freiburg, Germany | .kka.Front cover and centre illustration by l va m ia | Aalten, Netherlands | .va.

2011 iclei ea saa gh, l 3, 79098 F, ga

The content in the handbook Adapting urban water systems to climate change is under a license o CreativeCommons specied as AttributionNoncommercialShare Alike .. This license allows others to remix, tweak,and build upon the training materials or noncommercial purposes, as long as they credit the copyright holderand license their new creations under the identical terms. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/./

The ull legal text concerning the terms o use o this license can be ound at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/./legalcode

The handbook 'Adapting urban water systems to climate change was prepared within the ramework o the European research projectSWITCH to .

www.switchurbanwater.eu

SWITCH was supported by the European Commission under the th Framework Programme and contributed to the thematic priority areao Global Change and Ecosystems [...] Contract no. .

This handbook would not have been possible without the support and input rom the many people who contributed case studies, adviceor inormation including Ger Bergkamp and Emma Rose rom IWA, Minnie Hildebrand and Keith Robertson rom the EU PREPAREDproject, Martijn Wieriks, Hans Husson and Erik de Ruyter van Steveninck rom UNESCOIHE, Marloes Bakker rom the NL EnvironmentalAssessment Agency, Melbourne Water and City o Rotterdam sta, particularly Alieta McDonald and John Jacobs, Lian Lundy rom MiddlesexUniversity and members o the IWA Climate Change Specialist Group.

This publication refects only the authors views. The European Commission is not liable or any use that may be made o the inormationit contains.

Publisher:

Principal author:

Contributing authors:

Editors:

Design:

Copyright:

Acknowledgements:

Disclaimer:

AdApting urbAn wAter systemsto climAte chAngeA ak ak a a v

K a

Aaa city and water managers are used to dealing with uncertainty and change.

Aaa a v qa a a cities shouldcapitalise on the benets that adaptation can oer.

Aa a a a a a a, v aj a no matter the scale, what is important is to take action now.

t a a va a a without oresight and strategicplanning, the consequences can be severe.

i va a a a a urban water systemresponses to climate change must take their needs into account.

ca a aa a a aa a a cities have to be prepared todeal with the possibility o abrupt change.

ca a a a x a decision makers need their expertiseto better grasp the implications o uncertainty and take eective action.

t a a a aa a the close linkages between urban systemssuch as energy, transport and health require integrated management.

s a aa ak a a a includingthose unrelated to climate change such as population growth, land use changes and pollution.

ma a aaa a other cities can learn rom their experience and take actionthemselves.

ISBN 978-3-943107-09-8 print copy ISBN 978-3-943107-10-4 (PDF)


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AdApting urbAn wAter systems to climAte chAngeA ak ak a a v

5introduction

ci ............................................................................................................

Va a a a a a .........1.1 Climate change: a summary ......................................................................1.2 Sensitivity within urban water systems ....................................................1.3 Social and institutional dimensions o climate change ...........................

A a a ak aaa .........................................2.1 Addressing climate change vulnerability through integration ...............

2.2 Strengthening the planning process.......................................................2.3 Communicating climate change adaptation ...........................................

Aa a a : xa ......................................

c ..............................................................................................................

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Ax 1: Denitions ...............................................................................................Ax 2: Examples o impacts o climate change on urban sectors .................Ax 3: Adaptive capacity assessment ...............................................................Ax 4: Cobenets o sustainable water management options ......................

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iThis handbook on adaptation o urban water systems to climate change is an initiative othe SWITCH project and the result o a collaboration between ICLEI Local Governmentsor Sustainability, the International Water Association IWA and the UNESCOIHEInstitute or Water Education. It draws on the research and ndings rom the SWITCH andPREPARED EU Framework Programme projects. This handbook is a "living" documentthat is envisaged to be updated yearly with new inormation and experiences and iscomplemented by a website with additional inormation www.adaptationhandbook.org.

An adaptation handbook or cities

Adaptation to climate change is the subject o increasing interest and research eorts.As a result, large amounts o inormation, studies and repor ts are available about topicssuch as climate projections, vulnerability assessment or practical adaptation options.However, there is a lack o guidance or decision makers at the local level who wish toproactively prepare or and adapt to climate change. Missing is also single home or thisinormation.

Building upon the wealth o knowledge within ICLEI,IWA and UNESCOIHE as well as the vast quantity oinormation that has been or will be assembled duringthe SWITCH and PREPARED projects, this handbook and its accompanying web pages aims to be thathome. The handbook will provide local governmentsand utilities with uptodate inormation as well asaccess to resources and good practice examples. Thiswill enable them to increase their awareness o howthe potential impacts o climate change will aecttheir urban water systems and to build their capacityto develop a longterm strategy or adaptation in thewater sector.

Climate change will disproportionately aect cities sincethese concentrate populations and economic activityand are mostly located in climatesensitive areas suchas foodplains and coastal zones. The urban water

system which includes water supply, wastewater andstormwater is particularly at risk because climatechange will mainly maniest itsel through alterationsin the water cycle. More variability and the increasedoccurrence o extreme weather events are predictedwith a reasonable amount o condence, in spite osome uncertainty. Some o these changes are alreadyhappening, and require cities to take urgent action.

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7introduction

Luckily, it is possible or cities to increase their abilityto adapt to climate change while at the same timeincreasing their overall sustainability and quality olie. This handbook illustrates some o the optionsthat are available to make this happen.

The handbook does not aim to cover all aspectsrelating to adaptation or to present a completepicture o the origins and consequences o climatechange, but rather aims to distil the most relevantaspects or urban water management. For example,the handbook details the main anticipated impactso projected climatic variations on urban watersystems and services, but does not go into scienticexplanations about the causes o climate change.For this and other topics, the necessary background

inormation is readily available i needed somelinks are provided on the handbooks website.

Target audience

This handbook is aimed at local governments and utilities in cities o all sizes in bothdeveloped and developing countries. Certainly, much o its content has been drawn romthe experiences o larger developed country cities, due to their greater amiliarity withadaptation planning and implementation. However, the methods and concepts laid outin this handbook are applicable at all scales and levels o economic development, sinceadaptation is not merely a matter o available nances but also o knowledge and soundplanning. A lot can also be achieved through the accumulation o individual adaptiveactions.

The handbook will be most useul or midlevel managers and strategic planners withinutilities or relevant local government departments who are responsible or takingdecisions in the area o urban water management. Indeed, such managers and plannerspossess the necessary background both to understand the wider implications o climatechange and to grasp the practical r ealities o adapting to it, and are thus able to initiatereal change but also to wield infuence at the political level.

About the handbook and its supporting website

This handbook is the cornerstone o a wider eort: indeed, it is accompanied by a websitecontaining a wide range o supporting resources, which include copies o the ull casestudies that are summarised in the handbook. It is envisaged that both the handbook andwebsite be regularly updated to include new research results, examples rom cities andindepth analysis o selected ocus areas. Since the handbook and website are intendedto meet practical needs, suggestions on what could be added or changed are welcomecontact: [email protected].

The structure o the handbook seeks to answer a logical sequence o questions: Whatare the problems? How can they be overcome? What are others doing to overcomethem? Section 1 outlines the key areas o vulnerability to climate change within urbanwater systems, while strategic planning based on stakeholder involvement is explained inSection 2. Finally, Section 3 presents the highlights rom a series o case studies whichshowcase cities that have already planned or adaptation or implemented specic actions

aiming at increasing their resilience to climate change. Annex 1 denes some o the keyterms that will be used throughout the handbook.

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9section 1Va a a a a a

Uncertainty

The uncertainty related to climate change science derives rom a number o actors,including:

regional data gaps;

deciencies in the understanding o natural systems;the act that predictions o climate change are based on the use o models that cannotconsider all actors linked to climate systems; and

the limitations o emissions scenarios which can only estimate uture greenhouse gasemission levels.

The condence in IPCC projections is also lower at smaller spatial scales and or certainmaniestations such as precipitation. For water managers, the useulness o globalclimate models is limited by the spatial and time resolution o their data, w hich is otennot available at the catchment scale Bergkamp, Orlando & Bur ton, .

Nevertheless, the uncertainty inherent within climate change science should not beconused with scepticism about the anthropogenic causes o climate change. Warmingo the climate system has been unequivocally proven, attribution o warming to humanactivities is almost certain and some impacts can already be observed. Climate modelsare constantly being rened and supplied with additional data, meaning uncertainty doesnot remain constant but is reduced with time.

Uncertainty linked to climate changescience should not be regarded as abarrier to action. Instead, it shouldbe one o the numerous actorsto consider when undertaking anyplanning exercise. Uncertainty linkedto many other actors, such as pop

ulation growth, is already allowedor within water management.

Despite this uture uncertainty, plansstill need to be developed. This implies a certain risk; however, thereare ways to minimise it. In terms oadaptation, or example, a city canbegin with no or lowregret actionsthat can minimise costs, disruptionand side eects without entailingmajor investments. This handbookpresents this and other approachesor managing uncertainty.

Va a a a a aClimate change will mainly maniest itsel through sea level rise and an intensication o thehydrological cycle, which will entail more requent and intense rainall as well as extendeddry periods. As a result, a citys water supply, wastewater and stormwater systems will beparticularly aected. Climate changes impacts on the urban water system typically hasknockon eects on other urban systems since water plays such a undamental role in theunctioning o such systems as well as in maintaining quality o lie in a wider sense.

This section o the handbook draws out the main sensitivities o urban water supply,wastewater and stormwater systems to climate change. It presents a brie review oclimate change then shows how the main climate change hazards that are anticipatedmight aect urban water systems. Finally, it outlines some o the institutional and socialdimensions o climate change.

1.1 Climate change: a summaryThe energy balance o the earth, which determines the unctioning o its climate system,depends on a number o actors. Some are natural, such as variations in solar energy,and some are anthropogenic in origin, such as changes in the quantity o greenhousegases present in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas releasedby anthropogenic activities; others include methane and nitrous oxide. The greenhouseeect means that increased concentrations o these gases in the atmosphere prevent therelease o some thermal inrared radiation into space and lead to increased temperaturesin the earths atmosphere and at its surace.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC there is very highcondence that greenhouse gases emitted because o human activities since the IndustrialRevolution have led to the observed warming eect IPCC, . Although the termglobal warming is not technically a misnomer, it has been applied in misleading waysand should be used sparingly, since it does not refect the range o impacts o climatechange. One o the main consequences o the change in the earths energy balance isthat the global hydrological cycle will be intensied and accelerated, a act with specicimplications or water management, as will be shown in Section 1.2.

In discussing climate change maniestations and impacts, it is vital to bear in mind theimplications o uncertainty and variability. Also, system pressures that are not related toclimate change should be given appropriate recognition. These points will be discussedin the next three subsections.

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For an authoritative and in-depth summary explanation o

the scientic basis or climatechange, including its underlying

causes, see the Summary orPolicymakers o the IPCCs

Working Group I (IPCC, 7).

Working with uncertaintyis one o the guidingprinciples or good practicesin adaptation developed bythe ETC/ACC; these are in linewith the concepts developedin this handbook (Prutsch,Grothmann, Schauser, Otto &McCallum, ).


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Regional and temporal variability

Discussions about climate change are oten accompanied by generalisations: heat waveswill be more common or rainall will increase. However, the di erence between globalmean levels and specic local maniestations should be kept in mind. Examples abound:While global mean surace air temperature is indeed expected to increase, this increasewill be subject to regional dierences, with land suraces and high northern latitudesexperiencing the greatest warming. Globally averaged mean precipitation is also projectedto increase but that in the subtropics to decrease.

Some regions will also experience multiple maniestations: or example, mean precipitationwill decrease in subtropical and midlatitude regions, but, since the intensity o rainall willalso increase, longer periods will pass between rainall events Bates, Kundzewicz, Wu& Palutiko, . A city might thereore be conronted with both fooding and droughtwithin a relatively short time span. These examples o regional variability highlight theneed or cities to make use o projections downscaled to a more precise scale: see Section

2.1 or more inormation.

Variability will also maniest itsel on a temporal scale: longterm trends will interact withshortterm ones, and greater climatic variability will lead to an increase in the requencyo extreme events UNWater, . In addition, climatic variability will not always occurin a gradual linear way. Instead, the predictability o climate change is reduced by the actthat step changes can and do happen, with climatic conditions shiting rom one state toanother radically dierent one in a short p eriod o time. As a result, although longtermclimatic predictions are useul, cities should also prepare or the possibility o abruptchange as part o their planning.

Other pressures on water systems

Although the public and decision makers have become more aware o climate change,it is vital not to lose sight o t he dominant role o the impacts o other human activitieson reshwater and related systems. In many cases, the eects o other anthropogenicinterventions are hard to separate rom the eects o variations in climate. For example,river fows are substantially aected not only by climaterelated precipitation and temperature patterns, but also by human activities such as dam building, land use changesand pollutant loads. Similarly, observed decreases in groundwater levels should rst andoremost be attributed to overabstraction rather t han climatedriven changes in rechargerates Bates, Kundzewicz, Wu & Palutiko, .

Human activities can exacerbate thenegative impacts o climate changeby increasing the vulnerability osystems to a changing climate Bates,Kundzewicz, Wu & Palutiko, .While this handbook only ocuses onadaptation to the impacts o climatechange on the water cycle, it takesas a central assumption that soundplanning should take all drivingorces into consideration. In somecases, placing the ocus exclusively

on climate change may lead a city to miss more obvious leverage points, which mightbe more costeectively addressed and lead to better results and greater cobenets.Attribution o impacts to driving orces should thereore be a key exercise within a citysassessment o its baseline situation.

reaie.o/sara35

1.2 Sensitivity within urban water systemsCities concentrate population, inrastructure, economic activity and wealth, and willthereore be disproportionately aected by the local impacts o climate change. Inaddition, cities located in coastal areas and/or on the banks o rivers are particularlyvulnerable to sea level rise and fooding. Cities are also characterised by t he predominanceo impermeable suraces which are less capable o absorbing increased rainall andthereore increase the intensity o rainall runo and are prone to the urban heat islandeect which amplies heat waves.

Finally, as population growth will overwhelmingly take place in cities, urban watermanagers will ace a growing challenge to maintain sae and adequate water supplies andwastewater services or urban residents. Urban population growth in the next decadeswill take place at a very rapid scale and mostly in developing countries, exacerbating manyo the problems linked to urban poverty, increasing the size o vulnerable populations incities and placing additional pressure on dwindling supplies o resources such as waterPageler, .

The vulnerability o urban water supply, wastewater and stormwater systems to climatechange is outlined in this section. These systems will be strongly aected by the variousmaniestations o climate change, with impacts primarily relating to their physical inrastructure but also to their unctionality.

This section is supported by the table in Annex 2 which presents a selection o exampleso the impacts o some predicted climate change maniestations. The table mainlyocuses on urban water but also touches upon other urban sectors which are stronglyrelated to water, such as energy, health, ood production and green spaces. Annex 2 isintended as an illustration o the variety o impacts which can be anticipated and o thelinks between the water sector and other urban sectors. This section o the handbook isalso accompanied by the illustration on pages and , which shows some o the mainchallenges o climate change or cities.

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Perths experience o non-linear climatic change and

its approach to dealing withvariability are presented in

Section 2.1.

A regional breakdown oclimate change impacts on

water resources can be oundin the IPCCs Technical paperon climate change and water

(Bates, Kundzewicz, Wuand Palutiko, 8).


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Water supply

Water supply will suer rom most o the anticipated maniestations o climate change,whether in terms o water quantity or quality. Flows into rivers, lakes and reservoirs aswell as groundwater will be aected:

Sea level rise can reduce the availability o potable water through saltwater intrusion intoaquiers and estuaries.

Water supply will be reduced by altered pr ecipitation patterns and increased temperatures which increase evapotranspiration.

Security o supply is negatively aected by droughts both directly, since these reducestreamfow and infows into reservoirs, lakes and groundwater, and indirectly, orinstance through the increased occurrence o wildres. In Australia or example,wildres ollowed by vegetation regrowth signicantly reduce catchment yields Howe,Jones, Maheepala & Rhodes, .

The seasonality o water supply levels may change, particularly in regions where springsnowmelt is the main source o water. Reduced winter rainall will aect the rechargeperiod o groundwater, lakes and reservoirs. Many Latin American countries dependenton snow and glacier melt have already seen reductions in available water. In Peruor example, reshwater availability at the coast, where over hal o the population isconcentrated, has seen a reduction o % over a p eriod o years Bates, Kundzewicz,Wu & Palutiko, .

Water quality is an important component o water supply, since it determines to whatextent water needs to be treated prior to its use or drinking or other purposes suchas irrigation. Changes in water quality thereore aect water users but also increase

the cost o services. Water quality will be aected by fooding, through erosion andconsequent turbidity increases, increases in nonpoint pollution, but also throughdamage to wastewater treatment plants and consequent bacterial contamination owater. It will also be aected by increased temperatures, which have an eect on thechemical and biological characteristics o water bodies, and by decreased precipitationwhich concentrates pollution. Consequences or certain water sources will have knockoneects on others: precipitation decrease and its impact on surace water will result inincreased water abstraction rom groundwater and rom sources with lower water qualityBates, Kundzewicz, Wu & Palutiko, .

The physical inrastructure o water supply will be negatively aected by fooding, throughdirect damage to pipelines and acilities, sedimentation o reservoirs as well as overloadingo capacity. For example, inrastructural damage resulting in power cuts aects theability to pump water. Climate change can also reduce the unctionality o drinking watertreatment, by or example lessening the eectiveness o treatment processes such aschlorination or causing overly high disinection byproduct levels in distribution systemsZwolsman et al., .

Functionality is aected by increased temperatures, which avour the prolieration oequipmentclogging algae and lead to greater expense or treatment to remove the tasteand smell linked to bacterial and ungal growth. Unanticipated colder temperatures alsoaect unctionality by reezing water in pipes which then leads to cracks and leaks, ashappened in Ireland during the winter o /. Pipes can also crack because othe drying o soils during drought conditions. Moreover, certain management decisionsmade as a r esponse to climate change events can have consequences or water supply:or example, setting aside reservoir capacity as a food absorption buer can decreasedrinking water availability.

Water supplies will also be aected by climate change driven alterations in water demand.Increased temperatures will increase water demand or all consumptive uses barringeciency improvements and might thereore lead to stronger competition or waterresources or require the sourcing o alternative water supplies. Water use in New YorkCity or example increases by litres per degree centigrade once temperatures go aboveC Protopapas et al., as cited in Kundzewicz et al., . A related point is that in

the context o reduced water availability, meeting any existing minimum ecological fowrequirements will become more challenging, and could put into question drinking waterproduction licence renewals Zwolsman et al., .

Wastewater systems

Much like water supply, the integrity and unctionality o wastewater treatment inrastructure will be aected by climate change. The inrastructure o collection lines and wastewater treatment, including outalls, pipelines and tanks, can be physically damaged bycoastal fooding linked to sea level rise and also by fooding caused by increased precipitation. The unctionality o wastewater treatment can also be reduced by fooding: in the

case o cities with combined sewersystems, heavy rainall events canoverwhelm wastewater treatmentcapacity, which usually results in increased overfows. Coastal foodingcan increase the salinity o infuentand thereby disrupt biological processes and potentially aect the reuse o treated wastewater. Extremeevents can challenge wastewatertreatment plants by diluting or concentrating infows, in the case ofoods or droughts r espectively.

Functionality is also impaired by increased temperatures: these can have both positive andnegative consequences or wastewater treatment Bates, Kundzewicz, Wu and Palutiko,. Higher temperatures coupled with reduced rainall can lead to increased pipebreakage due to drying o soils as well as increased deterioration o pipes due to corrosionrom hydrogen sulphide buildup Zwolsman et al., ; Howe, Jones, Maheepala andRhodes, . Wastewater management can also be indirectly infuenced, or example iincreased temperatures aect the oxygen levels o receiving water bodies and thereorelead to more stringent wastewater treatment requirements in order to stabilise theselevels so as not to endanger ecosystems.

Turbidity increases: a big concern?

The increased occurrence and intensity o rainall events can cause erosion within lake orriver catchment areas and raise the turbidity levels o water. This turbidity can aect waterquality even i the eroded soil is not particularly polluted. Turbidity aects drinking waterproduction by interering with disinection processes, by requiring greater expenditure orcoagulants and handling o solids and by overloading process unctionality. It is a par ticularconcern or cities such as New York City that do not lter their drinking water supply, as itcan require the very costly installation o ltration systems i alternative means to controlerosion are not put in place Zwolsman et al., .

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Stormwater and drainage systems

Drainage or stormwater systems will be most aected by the increased occurrence andintensity o precipitation. As rainall becomes more intense, surace runo levels canexceed the capacity o stormwater entry points or cause sewer overfows in combinedsewer systems. This can cause street fooding, with associated health dangers due tocontamination, but can also increase the cost o meeting related regulatory requirements.Combined sewer overfows are a problem linked both to stormwater and to wastewater:excess stormwater causes overfows, but the conveyance o wastewater by means ocombined pipes is also at the root o the problem. In London, or example, dischargesrom combined sewer overfow outlets into the Thames River can occur between and times per year, and heavy rainall can lead to over a million tonnes o a combinationo untreated sewage and rainwater entering the citys rivers Greater London Authority,.

In addition, drying and shrinking soils caused by droughts can generate cracks in storm

water drains and sewers. This can lead to problems o contamination but also increasesmaintenance costs. Changes in vegetation and soil characteristics due to increasedtemperatures and higher rates o evapotranspiration can also change attenuation andinltration rates, aecting soil retention capacity.

Increased heavy precipitation and more requent and severe cyclones can cause riverineand coastal fooding and overwhelm city deences. Although the link between thesetwo events and climate change has not been proven, the fooding in Queensland,Australia, and the hurricanedriven storm surge in in New Orleans, U.S.A., serveas reminders o the catastrophic impact o extreme weather events on urban areas andsociety in general. Hurricane Katrina cost New Orleans $ billion in damage, destroyingover , homes Waggonner & Sternad, . The costs and consequences ofooding are increased by growing population density and economic activity in atriskareas, as well as by the existence and spread o inormal settlements in developingcountries. The dominance o impermeable suraces in cities exacerbates the problemscaused by heavy rainall.

Sensitivity within water-reliant systems

Apart rom waterrelated inrastructure, cities are also supported by a number o othersystems which are at least partly reliant upon water. These include transportation, energysupply, health, ood production and green spaces. Some impacts will be caused by thesystems direct reliance upon water: one example within the energy supply system is

hydropower, whose ability to produce energy is governed by t he availability o water. Another example is the ood production system which is dependent upon the timely availability o sucient quantities o water. Both o these systems will be altered by projectedchanges in the quantity, seasonality and geographical distribution o precipitation.

Other impacts will be caused by indirect eects, where climatic events damage theinrastructure production, distribution or other related to urban systems. Flooding orexample can harm health inrastructure components such as hospitals, creating indirecthealth eects by preventing provision o and access to health services, and can also aectood distribution by damaging the transport network.

The links between the water sector and other sectors also work in the reverse direction:or instance, eective wastewater treatment is strongly reliant upon the regular andaordable provision o electricity, which may be aec ted by climate change. The stronglinks between urban management sectors build the case or management o urban waterthat eatures fexibility and integration, as shown in Section 2.1.

1.3 Social and institutional dimensions o climate changeThe social and institutional dimensions o climate change are oten neglected in thedebate; however, water managers should take them equally into account since they havea direct even i not always obvious link to urban water planning and management.This section gives a brie overview o some o these dimensions.

Migration

The impacts o climate change are likely to increase human migration, particularly sincelarge numbers o people live in coastal regions and foodplains or are dependent or theirlivelihood on sectors that will be disproportionately aected by climate change, such asagriculture. According to the UNs World Water Development Report, anywhere rom to million people could become displaced or environmental reasons UnitedNations World Water Assessment Programme, . This displacement could lead to

negative social impacts not only or the displaced populations but also or t hose regionsthey relocate to. In the case o rural people dependent on agriculture, their migration tourban areas will place added strain on urban water management.

Equity

Equity here can be thought o as airness: airness bothin terms o which groups will suer most rom climatechange impacts and in terms o the diering capacityo these groups to adapt to them. Developing countriesare responsible or a ar smaller amount o greenhousegas emissions both currently and historically butparadoxically bear the brunt o climate change hazardsand have less adaptive capacity to deal with them.Equity also considers dierences in socioeconomiclevels as a key actor in determining vulnerability, withthe less developed economies o developing countriesrendering them more susceptible to climate changethan developed countries.

Socioeconomic equity is however a consideration in all countries, since the most marginalised segments o society within both developing and developed countries will bedisproportionately aected. These include women, the elderly and sick, racial minoritiesand the poor. The increased vulnerability o these groups is linked both to their sensitivity, since they tend to live in areas that are more easily aected by natural disasters, and totheir lack o adaptive capacity. For example, racial minorities in the U.S.A . tend to live ininner cities, which are more aected by the urban heat island eect. Poor people are alsomore likely to live on lowervalue land such as foodprone areas or steep hills that suerrom landslides, such as those in cities like Caracas or Rio de Janeiro Wilbanks et al., .

Overall, the poor devote a higher p roportion o their income to basic necessities such asood, energy and water, and are thereore hit harder when scarcity drives the price o t heseresources up. As reshwater becomes scarcer, it can become more costly and access toit becomes a unction o the wealth o an individual or a community. Climate change canthereore compound the problems linked to poverty, which creates a vicious circle wherediversication or relocation becomes impossible. Finally, women in developing countriesare overwhelmingly responsible or sourcing water or their households, and will be moreaected by increased scarcity.

For more examples o theconnections between waterand energy, see the box on

the water-energy nexus withinSection 2.1.

Multi-stakeholder involvementis a way to increase thelikelihood that the needs oall water users are sucientlyconsidered, regardless o theirincome level or political power.For more inormation, seeSection 2.2.

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Water allocation

Another aspect linked to water is that o the water rights that govern its allocation. Althoughwater rights are not usually determined at the city level, they do strongly infuence theavailability and management o water or urban areas, since water rights underlie theservices provided by water management inrastructure as well as the institutions thatmanage it Ludwig & Moench, . Catchmentscale water management principlespush or the allocation o water towards its most economically ecient use, particularlyin the context o water scarcity, which means that cities will oten be given priority.

The societal implications o this should be kept in mind; or instance, since agriculturetends to use water in the least technically and economically ecient way, it shouldtheoretically be the sector that sees water allocation reductions in scarcity situations.This can have important consequences or communities dependent upon agriculture,and can result in diversication where possible or in ruraltourbanmigration. Shits inallocation can be done in a planned way, as in Melbourne, Australia, where water trading

takes place between the city and agricultural users o the MurrayDarling Basin.

Insurance

The core business o insurance involves the prediction o probabilities o loss. Climatechange increases the likelihood, location and magnitude o extreme weather events andalso decreases the predictability o weather. Consequently, the viability o methods usedto estimate risk and calculate loss used by the insurance industry will be put into question.The insurance industry also tends to use historical data as a basis or decisions, and ismoreover less able to rely on the use o climate models, since these cannot help in theproduction o quantitative risk assessments based on probabilities.

In sum, insurance institutions will play a reduced role in spreading risk in society. Asprivate companies with prot as a main motivation, they may withdraw rom highriskareas, leaving governments and ultimately taxpayers as insurers o last resort Ludwig& Moench, . Cities may choose to buy out uninsured or uninsurable riversidelandowners rather than ace important costs in case o foods, as is being done in the cityo Moorhead, Minnesota Federal Emergency Management Agency, n.d..

Encouraging exposure reduction: The Lloyds approach

Some insurers think the insurance industry has an important role to play in encouraging theclimateproong o society Lloyds, . They promote:

Moving away rom pricing risk based on historical trends.

Building incentives or the appropriate management o risk within insurance policies byor example placing limits on contents insurance so that steps are take to protect valuableproperty.

Finding ways to restrict population concentration in riskprone areas.

Being able to adequately price risk, ree o regulatory action, while recognising that theuture pace o climate change may ultimately limit insurability o climatic hazards.

Being open to withdrawing or restricting insurance cover in overly riskprone areas.

Other institutions

Institutions, particularly those at the governmental level, will be aected by climatechange mainly because o the increasing demands or resources and services suchas health care, energy and emergency response that climate change will place onthem. They will also have to handle the increasing expenditure that dealing with climatechange maniestations can involve. Such costs might have to be met through increasesin revenues or decreases in other services, and may place urther stress on alreadyoverextended institutions Wilbanks et al., . These acts strengthen the case orstrategic and integrated planning using fexible and lowercost options and technologies,as reviewed in Section 2.

To conclude Section 1, it can be said that although uncertainty remains regardingthe expected maniestations o climate change, the likely impacts o climate changeon urban water systems are important enough that they cannot be ignored by watermanagers. Section 2 highlights the importance o applying a planning process that isbased on orecasts and scenarios and is designed to deal with uncertainty and changingconditions.

Financing adaptation in cities

A signicant proportion o the average costs o adaptation to climate change will includecosts linked to cities, largely because o the expense required to adapt or build new andresilient inrastructure and ser vices. Although exact gures are not yet available, it is clearthat a large amount o additional investment will be needed i adaptation is to be seriouslyaddressed. In addition, many o the costs o adapting cities particularly upgrading housingstock will be borne by private individuals. Estimates based on the costs o adaptinginrastructure thus do not represent the total cost o adaptation. At present, the scale ounding available alls ar short o what is needed, and what little exists gives unsatisactoryattention to urban areas.

While enhancing nancial capacity seems to play a role in driving current adaptationresponses, it is to a lesser degree than could be expected: several cities around the worldhave started to initiate adaptation, oten irrespective o national rameworks being inplace. City networks are also being set up: these can stimulate national policies and actas a positive example, providing an important venue or the transer o knowledge andtechnology. City networks exchange good practices on a wide range o issues: one exampleis Connecting Delta Cities.* Ultimately, the success o adaptation in cities critically dependson the availability o necessary resources, not only nancial and natural, but also linked toknowledge, technical capability, institutional resources and targeted tools Bakker, .

* http://www.rotterdamclimateinitiative.nl/nl/delta_cities_website/home


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19section 2A a a ak aaa

A a aak aaaIt can be hard or a city to know where to begin its process o adaptation. Strategicplanning provides the necessary ramework or taking an integrated, fexible and longtermapproach to water management and or the planning and implementation o successuladaptation actions.

2.1 Addressing climate change vulnerability throughintegration

Flexible and uture-oriented urban water management

In responding to the twin challenges o planning in times o climate change theuncertainty o climate predictions and the act that a greater diversity and higher requencyo outlying weather events will have to be considered the current approach to watermanagement is at a disadvantage and renders water systems more vulnerable to climatechange. Indeed, the typical approach tends to address existing problems through largeinvestments in a limited range o longestablished technologies. This hard inrastruc ture,and the infexible institutions that underpin them, are not well designed to cope withchanging and uncertain conditions. Conversely, a fexible system based on longtermplanning is more readily compatible with the characteristics o climate change and therequirements o adaptation.

saa a

Taking a longterm view is certainly not a new approach within water management;indeed, given their big price tags, planning or the uture is a necessary component oinrastructure projects. A guiding principle o water management is that o stationarity,which assumes that natural systems are subject to fuctuation that nonetheless remainswithin the bounds o a dened range o variability; this fuctuation is used as a basisor decision making. The range o variability is determined based on historical data andobservations. It has been argued that the unprecedented scale o anthropogenic climatechange and its predicted impacts have rendered st ationarity obsolete as a managementprinciple Milly et al., .

In general, the design o urban water supply, wastewater and stormwater inrastructurebuilds in spare capacity to account or uture growth in demand. Local governments andutilities will thereore most likely be able to cope with short and mediumterm changes,unless the rate o change is too r apid and/or exceeds or goes below the planned buercapacity. In the long term however, builtin margins will be exceeded. Many utilitiesthroughout the world are acing these problems and trying to integrate them into planningpractices Perth is one example: see box on opposite side.

Unless temporary or more longterm reductions in water supplies are planned or, watermanagers may be orced to implement measures such as rationing or supply interruptions.Such measures are not only unpopular but also costly, since the hydraulic shocksassociated with intermittent supply damage water supply inrastructure decreasing theliespan o equipment and lead to increased maintenance and repair costs Danilenko,Dickson & Jacobsen, .

Forgoing stationarity in Perth, Australia

In the city o Perth, dramatic reductions in streamfow have led the Water Corporation tochange the length o historical record used or p lanning purposes. Perth has recognised thatthe long term average does not represent likely uture streamfow conditions. Perth nowuses a combination o climate projections rom climate modelling or longterm planningo years, together with a year streamfow average or mediumterm planning. Usingthe climate scenario the city has adopted as well as estimates o population growth, theWater Corporation estimates that the additional water required by the city by will be

equivalent to more than % o cur rent annual water use.

Figure 1 illustrates the steep drop in infows to dams in the last ten years compared to theaverages that governed the best part o the th century, providing a stark reminder o thesometimes nonlinear shits that can occur because o climate change.

F 1: ia a avaa w Aaa

f a Source: Water Corporation


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In contrast to the limitations imposed by stationarity, more fexible and sustainablemanagement involves making decisions and choices while considering a range oscenarios. It leads to the selection o management options and technologies with ewernegative impacts on the longterm sustainability o the system as a whole. For example,solutions that target demand reductions and the use o alternative sources rather thanresource development and inrastructure expansion are less vulnerable to inaccurateorecasts.

c fx

Current water management inrastructure tends to be infexible to changing circumstances,yet projections o climate change show that variability can change capacity requirementseither regionally or across the year. More sustainable urban water management systemsare designed to cope with varying and unpredictable conditions, and achieve this throughthe implementation o fexible and oten d ecentralised options and technologies that takeinto account a range o uture scenarios.

A fexible system is one that is characterised by its ability to adapt to changingrequirements. Table 1 gives some examples o how a fexible urban water system wouldrespond to changing conditions versus how a typical system would do so. The design o afexible system and the choice o options and technologies can be acilitated through thestrategic planning process that will be introduced in the next section.

Further inormation on thelexible solutions given in

Table 1 as well as other lexiblesolutions can be ound in

Modules 3 (water supply),4 (stormwater management)and 5 (wastewater manage-

ment) o the SWITCHTraining Kit (ICLEI European

Secretariat, 2011).

Integrated Urban WaterManagement (IUWM) is awidely recognised integratedplanning approach. Furtherinormation on IUWM canbe ound in Module 1 o t heSWITCH Training Kit (ICLEIEuropean Secretariat, 2011).

Urban watermanagementaspect

Non-exhaustive exampleso climate changeimpacts

Current systemresponse example

Potential responses to changingconditions rom a exible system

Water supply Reduced water supply, eitherseasonally or throughout theyear

Increasing water supplythrough additionalinrastructure suchas dams, boreholes,desalination acilities orbulk supply transers

Demand reduction through eciencyincreases, active leakage management,behaviour change or pricing policies

Sourcing o alternative supplies or nonpotable demand: rainwater harvesting ortreated wastewater efuent reuse

Increasing sustainable storage capacity,

or example through Aquier Storage andRecovery

Wastewatermanagement

Increased infow o pollution,caused by fooding

Improving treatmenttechnology

Control o pollution at source and use onatural treatment techniques

Flooding o wastewatertreatment plants located nearrivers or coasts

Construction o protectivebarriers or liting oequipment

Use and appropriate siting odecentralised natural treatmenttechniques

Stormwatermanagement

Increased stormwaterfows and combined seweroverfows

Improving and extendingthe inrastructureconveying stormwateraway rom the city

Attenuation o runo through the useo Sustainable Urban Drainage Systemsoptions, or example green roos, porouspaving, swales, rainwater harvesting, anddetention ponds and basins

ta : cva v fx a Source: ICLEI European Secretariat, 2011

The fexibility o nonconventional urban water systems is oten related to theirdecentralised solutions. Decentralisation decreases sensitivity by spreading risk; indeed,it is easy to understand the heightened risk aced by a city dependent on one or morelarge wastewater treatment plants versus a city that op erates several smallerscale naturaltreatment systems located in dierent areas.

In addition, decentralised solutions are oten quicker to install and more costeectiveto build and maintain. These considerations are particularly important in the ace ochanging conditions, which can easily render large investments in new treatment acilitiesor water supply inrastructure redundant.

F a a a aa

As shown in Section 1, the impacts o climate change will be elt in a crosscutting manneracross dierent elements o the urban water cycle, but also across all urban managementsectors. Current approaches to urban water management are oten ragmented, withthe design, construction and operation o the various elements carried out in isolationrom one another, and with little coordination with other urban management sectors andinstitutions.

This ragmented approach oten results in unsustainable practices, or instance whentechnical choices have unintended impacts in other parts o the urban system. Forexample, the structural means o food protection applied to the Elbe River in Germanynegatively aect ecosystems Weschung et al., as cited in Kundzewicz et al., .It is also inadequate in terms o responding to the challenges posed by climate change.

COFAS - A water management decision-support toolThe selection o appropriate adaptation measures requires innovative tools that help understand the fexibility o dierent options. COFAS Comparing the Flexibility o Alternative

Solutions, or example, goes beyond t he conventional multicriteria analysis and also visualises the inherent ability o a potential solution to respond fexibly under dierent scenarios.

Source: Ingenieurgesellschat Pro. Dr. Sieker mbH, Germany

F 2: A coFAs a a aa fx


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The water-energy nexus in the context o climate change

Multiple and complex links exist between water and energy. Water management is heavilyreliant on energy or activities such as pumping, transportation, desalination, domesticwater heating and the treatment o drinking water and wastewater. Water is also integralto energy production, through hydroelectric dams but also steam turbines and ossil uelprocessing.

The links between the two resources are becoming ever more apparent, particularly in thecontext o increasing resource scarcity and climate change. At a time when many cities aretrying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change, the intensive energyuse o classic water inrastructure can be a drawback.

In planning mitigation and adaptation actions, cities must keep the connection betweenenergy and water in mind, to reduce the likelihood o unintended impacts. For example,the excessive water consumption o some bioenergy crops is on e o the main reasons citedby those who oppose their use as part o mitigation strategies. Many o the sustainablewater management options outlined in Table 1 have the added advantage o reducingenergy consumption, although in some situations more decentralised solutions can actuallyincrease energy consumption, highlighting the need or constructive dialogue betweenwater and energy managers Kenway, .

A more sustainable approach to water management involves not only integratedmanagement o the dierent elements o the urban water cycle, but also the coordinationo actions with other urban management sectors, which can help identiy synergies butalso address conficts. In the context o climate change, whose impacts are likely to beelt across a range o urban sectors and services, such an integrated approach can beparticularly valuable or adaptation planning. In addition, fexible options and technologiescan also benet other urban sectors: examples o cobenets are given in Annex 4. Anintegrated approach can be applied through the development o a continuous, regularlyevaluated procedure with ongoing choices designed to cope with changing circumstances,through strategic planning.

Strategic planning or adaptation to climate change

wa a a?

Strategic planning is a structured ramework or the development and implementationo a longterm strategy or integrated urban water management. Strategic planning is nota process that has been specically designed to plan or adaptation to climate change.Rather, it is a process intimately linked to urban water management as a whole, and onewhich covers climate change and adaptation to it as one o many relevant aspects to beconsidered. However, because the strategic planning process has been designed to planor variable and unknown conditions, and since it entails taking a longterm perspectiveand enables consideration o the linkages between urban water sectors and with otherurban sectors, it is actually per ectly suited to plan or climate change adaptation in thecontext o urban water management.

sa a aaa

The strategic planning process consists o a number o phases, which are visualised inFigure 3. This gure highlights the adaptationspecic considerations within the strategicplanning process. Each phase is described in more detail below, while the vulnerabilityassessment process is covered in the next section.

Figure 3 presents strategic planning as a logical sequence o phases, but in reality theorder o tasks can vary and the dierent phases should be regularly revisited. In particular,the outcome o the vulnerability assessment and scenario building may require that thetargets or other previous phases be subjected to a reality check. Indeed, orecasts mayshow that the vision as has been set previously would not be reachable under stronglyaltered climatic conditions.

sa a a

Baseline assessment, including assessment o adaptive capacityBeore entering into a process o change, a city needs to know its starting point. Abaseline assessment is an initial collection and analysis o inormation to gain uptodateknowledge about actors aecting systems. Assessment o adaptive capacity should orman integral part o the baseline assessment, since it requires a city to take stock o theexisting characteristics o a system that will determine to an extent how it responds tohazards, as shown in the next subsection.

Visioning, objectives, targets and indicatorsA vision is a concise description o a desired uture state, containing the broad goals thatgive the overall direction or the strategic planning process. Objectives are a more detailedand concrete breakdown o a vision into subgoals that speciy what changes in state needto be achieved or the vision to become reality. Indicators are tools to measure and/or visualise progress towards the objectives, while targets are aspired indicator values,usually expressed in specic gures.

Monitoringand evaluation

Baseline assessment,including assessmento adaptive capacity

Implementation

Visioning,objectives, targets

and indicators

Completion o vulnerabilityassessment, scenario

building and developmento strategy and action plan

F 3: t a a , a aaa a

Further inormation onstrategic planning can be ound

in Module 1 o the SWITCHTraining Kit, rom which much

o the content o thissection has been derived (ICLEI

European Secretariat, 2011).


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Scenario building is not aboutknowing the uture, or alwaysbeing right; it is about trying tominimise the chances o being

seriously wrong (Batchelorand Butterworth, 8).

s 1: Aav aa a

Determining the adaptive capacity o a system can be a complex, subjective and timeconsuming task; how thoroughly a city will be able to conduct its adaptive capacityassessment will thereore strongly depend on its resources. For the purposes o thishandbook, a more indepth approach ollowing the logical principles o strategic planningis laid out, though a more rapid and targeted approach to such an assessment is alsopossible. In this case, a city or utility would seek to identiy the eatures o adaptive capacitywithin a specic system that moderate its response to a given climate change hazard.

An indepth and holistic approach to adaptive capacity assessment, on the other hand,seeks to consider all o the determinants o adaptive capacity within a city that existregardless o climate change. This ensures a more thorough approach is taken. Indeed,reviewing this generic adaptive capacity means that the analysis will not be blinkered byany particular expected hazard and is likely to produce more wideranging results thattake into account the links between urban sectors. Moreover, knowing the general state

o adaptive capacity or the urban area under consideration means that vulnerability toall types o hazards can more easily be identied, which is particularly important in thecontext o uncertain and imprecise climate change predictions. The fip side o this is thatassessment o generic adaptive capacity is more timeconsuming and complex.

A typical approach to adaptive capacity assessment involves the selection o proxyindicators that serve to evaluate adaptive capacity determinants. Annex 3 denes ourcategories o determinants economy, society, governance and ecosystems and givessome examples o elements that can be looked at in conjunction wit h these categories,without aiming to provide a complete list or selecting indicators. For example, whenlooking at economic determinants o adaptive capacity, a city might want to think abouteconomic development as one area o interest, and it could select or example GDP percapita and GDP growth rate as indicators with which to represent and quantiy economicdevelopment.

The selection and interpretation o indicators is not straightorward; it is locationspecic,and should thereore be conducted locally Schauser, Harvey, & Schneiderbauer, .However, such an approach is still valuable as it is the most easy to apply and understand;it can greatly benet rom the involvement o stakeholders. In terms o interpretation orexample, it is hard to evaluate the way in which values obtained against indicators aectadaptive capacity; e.g. what is the cuto point or deciding whether an indicator revealshigh or low adaptive capacity?

s 2: sv aStep 2a: Assessing exposureDetermining exposure orms a natural part o the scenariobuilding phase o the strategicplanning process, since it involves determining what hazards the city will be exposed to.Exposure o a city to climate change hazards can be determined at dierent scales oprecision, depending upon the citys location and the resources that are available to it.Cities can rely upon predictions o climate change that have been made at the internationallevel the IPCC being the main source or these or upon downscaled predictions thathave been made at a continental, national, or even regional scale, i these exist Kropp &Scholze, . Such predictions can generally be accessed through the websites o theenvironmental or meteorological agencies o national or regional governments as well asthose o research institutes. I a city has sucient time, skills and nancial resources, itmay choose to do its own downscaling o climate models, using publicly available data.

Completion o vulnerability assessment, scenario building and strategy developmentAssessing vulnerability is a process that consists in balancing sensitivity against adaptivecapacity. This can be done as part o the scenario building/strategy development phase,and is explained in greater detail below. Scenario building is a way to minimize andovercome the risk associated with uncertainty, and involves the identication o theactors most likely to have an impact, and the estimation o how these will develop overtime. The aim o the strategy is to dene the main avenues through which the city will,under a range o scenarios, achieve the identied objectives.

Action planning and implementationThe development o an action plan is the compilation o programmes, projects and othermeasures that match the selected strategy and are designed to achieve the objectivesand targets within a dened time and budget rame. The implementation phase enablesphysical progress towards the vision.

Monitoring and evaluation

Monitoring involves measuring indicator values against the targets that have been set,and evaluation o these monitoring results enables analysis and communication o theoutcomes o the planning process.

The vulnerability assessment process

Vulnerability assessment is both a process and an output. The process o vulnerabilityassessment includes three main steps, summarised in Figure 4.

s 1: Reviewing adaptive capacity.

s 2a: Determining exposure to climate change hazards.

s 2: Assessing the sensitivity o t he systems under review.

s 3: Conducting the vulnerability assessment itsel the output. This will involvedetermining to what extent adaptive capacity provides a counterweight tosensitivity, and what the resulting vulnerability will be.

F 4: t va a

Vulnerability

Step 2b:Sensitivity assessment

Climate change

Step 2a:Determinig exposure

Step 3: Vulnerability assessment output

Sensitivity

Exposure

Step 1:Adaptive capacityassessment

Adaptive capacity

Collaboration with the researchcommunity can be particularlyvaluable or generating morelocally-specic predictions; seethe box on Learning Alliancesin Section 2.2.


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s 3: c a a va

The vulnerability assessment document or output to distinguish it rom the overallvulnerability assessment process, which covers all three steps combines the ndingso both the adaptive capacity assessment and the sensitivity assessment. O coursein practice it is not always easy to distinguish between the two Schauser, Harvey, &Schneiderbauer, . Because o the dynamic and complex nature o aspects aectinga systems vulnerability, vulnerability assessments should be conducted periodically. Theyalso need to be revisited taking into account the impact o both adaptation and mitigationactions whose aims are, ater all, to reduce vulnerability.

Running a vulnerability assessment is a mostly qualitative exercise based on the twoassessments mentioned above, which will provide guidance on system and communityneeds, identiying the most vulnerable systems and social groups. An appropriatevulnerability assessment should serve as a solid base or developing an adaptation planUNECE, . However, it is not a straightorward ormula that combines adaptive

capacity and sensitivity using some mathematical ormula, producing a nal result. Thevulnerability assessment remains, rather, a normativeanalysis o the combination o the adaptive capacityand sensitivity o systems. Stakeholder engagementis thereore the cornerstone o an appropriate andaccurate vulnerability assessment, since it will ensurethat all relevant issues and local knowledge are included in the analysis. It will also enhance the chanceso a successul implementation o correspondingadaptation measures.

A useul approach to vulnerability assessment wouldbe to ocus on each urban sector and determine itssectoral vulnerability. Considering the total adaptivecapacity o the city, as presented in Annex 3, the morespecic sectoral adaptive capacity and the sectoralsensitivity, each sector should determine how thepotentially negative eects sensitivity and positiveeects adaptive capacity add up. Then, creatinga general, aggregated picture combining all thesectors while always keeping in mind the citys totaladaptive capacity, would oer a holistic view o thecitys vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment is vital toadaptation planning; however, a bridge between thetwo still needs to be built, using risk assessment. Thisstep involves evaluating the likelihood and outcomeo events, and allows or the prioritisation o targetedadaptation actions that will most reduce vulnerability.

This usually involves running data through General Circulation Models GMCs, alsoknown as Global Climate Models under a range o emissions scenarios that have beenproduced by the IPCC. It can be done using internal scientic capacity or subcontractingthe task to universities or other research institutions, as was done in New York City orexample NYCDEP, .

Step 2b: Sensitivity assessmentConducting a sensitivity assessment entails detailing howeach urban sector may be aected by climate change hazards and the type o impact that will ensue. A city shouldrst assess the present status o each relevant system withregard to the external pressures aced, also considering relevant historical data that has impacted the unctionality o thesystem, such as demand peaks, sudden changes, climateconditions, demographics, or the political situation. Then,based on the scientic understanding o expected climate

change impacts, a city should identiy which climate changehazards may threaten each system's unctionality as well ashow they would do so, i.e. undertake a separate analysis o

systems. Impacts should be classied under one o the ollowing categories: potentialor inrastructural damage or impairment; potential or reducing or interrupting the systems ability to unction properly, including system overload and underuse; and potentialor negatively impacting human health, social interactions or causing human casualtiesSchauser, Harvey, Robrecht & Morchain, . Examples o potential impacts on urbansystems are show in the illustration on pages and .

Finally, the analyses o each system should be merged into one unied picture, deliveringa holistic sensitivity assessment or the cit y. Separate system analysis allows a detailedconsideration o each system and is mainly intended as a working tool or the team involvedin the adaptation process. A holistic analysis o systems is more o a communication tool,considering its lower technical level/language, and hence its easier accessibility by nonexpert readers.

i

sokhoo.o/eaaein

Assessing sensitivity in Melbourne, Australia: a collective exercise

In Melbourne, a series o meetings involving a variety o participants resulted in a virtualsensitivity assessment, with participants walking through the systems they were amiliarwith in their minds and determining the sensitivity o these to dierent climate hazards.Bringing together a mix o people allowed Melbourne Water to rst understand the impactthat higher temperatures, lower rainall or other climate parameters might have on each

section o their system rom the outer drinking water catchments all the way through todischarge or recycling o wastewater or stormwater. Good acilitation allowed a collectivedecision on what was most important to address and what options or adaptation wouldbe most eective. Eventually this prioritised set o adaptation actions was built into theMelbourne Water Corporations business and strategic plans and adopted by the VictoriaState Government.

Understanding risk and prioritising adaptation actions can be more eective i a variety opeople with dierent types o knowledge or experiences are involved in the process. Strategic thinkers and outside experts contribute the systems bigger picture and provide anoutside the box perspective. Utility or local government operators can bring in detailedknowledge o how an areas water, wastewater and drainage systems work, including theirexperiences with extreme events. A cademics can bring in knowledge o innovations and global experiences. Regulatory and public health experts come in rom a perspective ocusingon people and the economy. This mix o knowledge and experiences stimulates discussionand understanding.

A

nne-cairelofu


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Examples opotential eects oclimate change athe urban level

ca aza:Decreased precipitation

ia:Water scarcity

Va :Urban green space

h a a :Reduced biodiversity and ecosystem

services

ca aza:Higher temperatures

ia: Increase in bacterial andungal content o water

Va :Water supply inrastructure

h a a :

Increase in treatment requirementsto remove odour and taste


ia:Water scarcity

Va :Human health

h a a :Malnutrition and increase inwaterborne diseases

ca aza:Increased heavy precipitation

ia:Flooding

Va :Transportation

h a a :Damage to transport inrastructure

ca aza: Sea level rise

ia: Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquiers

Va : Water supply groundwater

h a a :Salinisation o groundwater, abandonment o source

ca aza: Increased heavy precipitation

ia: Flooding

Va : Wastewater

h a a : Flooding o acilities causing damage andcontamination o water bodies

ca aza: Decreased precipitation

ia: Reduced streamfow

Va : Food production

h a a : Negative impact on coastal sheries dueto decreases in the outfow o sediment and nutrients


ia:Reduced streamfow

Va :Energy supply

h a a :Disruption o thermal power plant

cooling processes

ca aza:Sea level rise

ia:Storm surges, fooding

Va :All

h a a :Damage to all coastal inrastructure

ca aza: Decreased precipitation

ia: Water scarcity

Va : Food production

h a a : Reduced availability o irrigationwater and yield decreases

ca aza: Higher temperatures

ia: Reduced water oxygen concentrations and altered mixing

Va : Water supply lakes/reservoirs

h a a : Reduced water quality or examplethrough algal blooms, increase in treatment requirements

ca aza: Increased heavy precipitation

ia: Increased erosion and sediment transport

Va : Water supply reservoirs

h a a : Sedimentation and decrease in waterstorage capacity and turbidity increase

Image by: l va m iaAa, na | www.loetvanmoll.nl

ca aza:Higher temperatures

ia:Snow and ice cover change

Va :Water supply rivers

h a a :Change in peak fow timing and

magnitude


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2.2 Strengthening the planning processFour actors are indispensable to the undertaking o a strategic planning process: strongpolitical backing, appropriate coordination between relevant departments and institutions,support rom research bodies and multistakeholder involvement. These should be inplace prior to the start o the process and should also be maintained or its duration.

Political commitment

Although evidence o an anthropogenic infuence on presentday climate patterns ismounting, climate change in general is thought to be a longterm p rocess, with many othe more extreme predicted impacts likely to be elt by uture generations. This, as well asthe uncertainty associated with climate change, creates a real barrier to securing ormalpolitical commitment to support the implementation o responses to climate change.

Political commitment is important or any adaptation processor several reasons. First, watermanagers have a limited degreeo infuence over legislation andregulations, which are importantor adaptation: land use planningrequirements or mandated watereciency targets are some examples. Secondly, the implementation o adaptation measuresrequires unding which must be

approved by politicians. Finally, the existence o political support or adaptation can actas a real motivating and awarenessraising actor at all levels o urban water managementand beyond. Strong political backing helps coner legitimacy and credibility to the strategic planning process, particularly visvis stakeholders.

Oten, it is important or water management units to think about and make availableinormation about the dierent benets o f exible water management, which requentlyextend beyond water. These can be used by politicians to promote the implementationo sustainable water management in a way that is tailored to the concerns and prioritieso their constituents.

Internal coordination

The strategic planning process requires the participation and cooperation o various departments and institutions. There are dierent ways through which to approach such internal coordination. Cooperation is most easily acilitated through the establishment o acoordination unit, which could either consist o a separate oce or individual, or o a unitwithin or linked to an existing department or institution. Local governments, due to theirbroader responsibility or local development as a whole, are a logical home or such a unit.

Cities can also establish specic coordination units to take a broad view o managemento all urban sectors in the ace o climate change. Water management, arguably the mostvital urban system and potentially one o the most a ected by climate change, naturallyorms one o the main areas o concern o these units. Oten, and ideally, these units orthe subgroups they orm become arenas or multistakeholder involvement. In principle,urban water managers are also able to develop plans without such internal coordination,

while taking climate change into account; however, the resulting adaptation actions arelikely to be less eective.

Collaboration with research

The complexity and uncertainty inherent to both climate change maniestations and associated adaptation responses requires having the best possible knowledge o currentconditions and likely longterm changes. Because o this, active collaboration with researchers is vital. Scenario building is a phase or which research input is particularlyimportant, as the plausibility o these scenarios as well as a sound assessment o thedegree o condence in them will determine to a great extent the outcome o the cityswater management strategy. Researchers can also help with the development o innovative solutions.

Stakeholder involvement

Stakeholders are individuals or entities that have interest in a particular decision orprocess, either because they are aected by it or because they can infuence it in someway themselves. Multistakeholder involvement is the process o engaging with thesestakeholders in a collaborative manner. Although it is certainly technically easible as is demonstrated in many urban areas to manage an urban water system withoutstakeholders, the sustainability and adaptive capacity o the system can signicantlybe strengthened through their involvement. I not, the costs o mismanagement aretranserred rom one actor to another, and the overall eciency o water managementis restricted. Multistakeholder involvement is thereore necessary to make the most ostrategic planning as well as to realise integration in urban water management moregenerally.

w

aeransaniaionproraah

e

worbank(.or)

Stakeholder involvement through coordination in London

The Greater London Authority has set up the London Climate Change Partnershipas its coordination unit or climate change. The partners consist not only o relevantgovernment departments, but also o other key stakeholders such as insurance

companies, nongovernmental organisations and private utilities. For more inormation,see the London case study www.adaptationhandbook.org.

Learning Alliances: Bridging the gap between research and practice

Learning Alliances are a type o action research which attempts to bridge the gap betweenthe scientists and experts on one hand, and water users as well as other stakeholders onthe other. In the course o the SWITCH project, they have been set up and tested in anumber o cities worldwide. The logic o the Learning Alliance requires that the startingresearch agenda itsel be ormulated in conjunction with stakeholders and address theirmain concerns. The research itsel is not solely conducted by experts but shared with thestakeholders. Solutions resulting rom an organised joint learning process such as this are

more likely to be adopted in practice.

A non-exhaustive list oexamples o co-benets is

provided in Annex 4.

Coordination o adaptation in New York City

New York Citys Long Term Planning and Sustainability Oce is the citys coordination unit or the implementation o its sustainability strategy. A Climate Change Adaptation Task Force has been set up as an element o this strategy, and involves the

direct participation o a range o stakeholders. These include relevant city agencies, statewide bodies and private companies involved in energ y, transport and communications. Formore inormation, see the New York City case study www.adaptationhandbook.org.


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It should be noted that the stakeholder process does not replace but rather complementsthe governance o the urban water system. The actual power o decision making andthus the accountability or perorming good water services still lies with the public andprivate entities that have an ocial mandate or managing water. An eec tive stakeholderprocess will however ensure that important decisions are taken in consensus with all keyactors and that these in turn develop a sense o responsibility and willingness to supportthe ocial entities within the limitations o their own capacities. In order to make integration a reality, stakeholders play a varying but continuous role throughout the strategicplanning process. Early involvement is advisable to gain and streng then their ownershipand thus their motivation right rom the beginning. Stakeholders are identied as part othe baseline assessment, ideally at the beginning o that process, so that they can alsogive their input to the vital inormation collection exercise.

Strategic planning that specically includes climatechange as one actor under consideration is likely tocome across certain diculties in its involvement ostakeholders these can be addressed through goodacilitation and knowledge sharing Gardner, Dowd,Mason & Ashworth, .

ga k: Providing inormation can helpaddress lack o understanding and misconceptions.

ua: Acknowledging uncertainty is vital, asis presenting climate change adaptation as a responseto risk rather than events that might or might not beoccurring presently.

s: Being open about scientic work, putting the emphasis on the inherentrationality o taking a risk management approach and highlighting the cobenets oadaptation can help overcome scepticism or at least put it aside.

ea a: The strategic planning approach, which has at its core actionplanning and implementation, can help surmount eelings o helplessness and encourageparticipation.

2.3 Communicating climate change adaptation

Stakeholders are central to the implementation o adaptation, and ailure to adequatelycommunicate with them about climate change can put barriers in its way. First, almostall adaptation actions will impact stakeholders to some degree, be it through a visiblechange or through expenditure o tax revenue. I the reasoning behind such impacts isnot explained or does not resonate with stakeholders, these are likely to oppose plannedprojects. This can be the case or some o the technologies and options outlined in thishandbook, since these are not yet widespread and are based on some concepts that cantrigger preconceived notions, or example the recycling o human waste. Secondly, a lot othe fexible solutions or urban management rely heavily on decentralised solutions whichcan require the active support and participation o the public or their wide uptake, to amuch greater degree than typical centralised water management inrastructure greenroos and rainwater harvesting are some examples.

Communicating climate changeThe stakeholders linked to urbanwater management are a disparate group, with varying levelso knowledge about water andclimate change. Generally, stakeholders outside o the scienticcommunity and o the institutionsdirectly involved with urban watermanagement can be presumedto have some knowledge gaps inthese areas. As part o the strategic planning process, it will benecessary to communicate aboutsuch issues with these stakeholder groups.

The Centre or Research on Environmental Decisions CRED has identied eightprinciples o climate change communication: knowing ones audience, getting itsattention, translating scientic data into concrete experiences, not overusing emotionalappeals, addressing uncertainties, taking advantage o the audiences group aliations,encouraging group participation and ostering environmentallypositive behaviourCRED, . Although it is not within the scope o this handbook to help cities denea complete climate change communication strategy, the rst principle knowing onesaudience does merit to be reviewed in more detail.

Any good marketing or communication plan should begin with an assessment o thetarget market or audience or the product, service or campaign. In the case o climatechange, this involves assessing stakeholders level o knowledge o, and opinions about,climate change and adaptation. This may involve undertaking a survey on the perceptiono climate change among the stakeholders identied as part o the strategic planningprocess. Such a survey can help identiy any gaps in knowledge and barriers to eectivecollaboration, or example in the event o widely varying and conficting opinions betweenand within stakeholder groups. It may reveal that the implementation o a particularadaptation solution would need to be preceded by a public education exercise. Forexample, the reuse o treated wastewater efuent or the use o sewage sludge as aertiliser can raise concerns relating to public health, which need to be addressed prior toimplementation.

Evaluating adaptation options through a participatory process

Hermosillo, Mexico, was the setting o a participatory exercise aimed at dening, evaluatingand prioritising adaptation options. A preliminary list o adaptation options was generatedbased on inormal interviews with a range o stakeholders; these options were thendiscussed at a ormal stakeholder workshop which resulted in the choice o ve options. Aresearch team then took on the detailed analysis o the prop osals, the results o which weredebated during another workshop. Participants proposed evaluation criteria, qualitativelyassessed the options against these, and were asked to prioritise the options both in terms ohow they met current water challenges and o how they would help cope with two possibleuture climate scenarios.

The pilot project succeeded in introducing the issue o climate change into to the alreadyheated debate surrounding the cit ys water resources. Many decisionmaking agencies wererepresented in the stakeholder workshops, hopeully sowing the seeds or the incorporationo climate change adaptation into policies. However, the process was hampered by thelimited participation o stakeholders rom the agricultural sector: as the citys main waterusers, their participation would have been essential to build a holistic picture and reduceconfict Eakin et al., .

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This section does not provideinormation on how to

establish, acilitate or evaluatea stakeholder involvement

process. More detailedguidance on these topics canbe ound in Module 2 o theSWITCH Training Kit (ICLEIEuropean Secretariat, 2011).


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Communicating adaptation: some unique challenges

Climate change has only relatively recently become the subject o widespread discussion,

is the subject o uncertainty, and is a complex phenomenon that takes place at timescalesthat are oten beyond those considered by individuals and institutions. These are someo the many challenges that ace those wanting to communicate climate change tostakeholders.

ua

Predictions regarding uture maniestations o climate change are raught with uncertainty.The scientic community has precise means with which to deal with uncertainty but thecommunication o this uncertainty and its consequences or decision making has notunctioned as well as it should. An example o this is the climategate email hackingincident which has put the ocus on some o the underlying assumptions and data gapswithin climate change science.

Active and open participation o the scientic community within the strategic planningprocess can help address the issue o uncertainty. As long as the gaps and assumptionswithin predictions are made obvious, and as long as the implications this has on scenarioranges are claried, then uncertainty should not be a barrier to planning or implementationo actions. Indeed, uncertainty as a general concept is one that is amiliar to individuals,

adapting urban water systems to climate change - a handbook for decision makers at the local level

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