adaptive management in an era of climate change: …...source: d. stralberg, prbo : prism climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Adaptive Management in an Era of Climate Change: No More Business as Usual?
John A. WiensCalifornia Coastal Conservancy 17 February 2009
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Projections of Global Climate ChangeProjections of Global Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2007Source: IPCC 2007
Source: Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated); Global Carbon Project
5
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Foss
il Fu
el E
mis
sion
(GtC
/y)
CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)
You are hereYou are here
Source: Source: GrinstedGrinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. , A., J. C. Moore, and S. JevrejevaJevrejeva 2009. 2009. ClimClim. . DynDyn. .
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…… and weand we’’re stillre stillwaiting on thewaiting on theplatformplatform
The train has left the station The train has left the station ……
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mitigationmitigationadaptationadaptation
Should We Pursue Mitigation or Adaptation?Should We Pursue Mitigation or Adaptation?
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PRBO Conservation Science
What is Needed? I wish II wish Icould be morecould be more
certaincertain
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PRBO Conservation Science
Dealing with Uncertainty
•• Model projections of likely changesModel projections of likely changes
•• Comprehensive adaptive managementComprehensive adaptive management
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PRBO Conservation Science
Model Projections of Bird Distributions
CurrentCurrent 21002100
Source: D. Stralberg, PRBO : PRISM climate (C. Daly) + 2080Source: D. Stralberg, PRBO : PRISM climate (C. Daly) + 2080--2099 402099 40--km RCM Scenario A2, km RCM Scenario A2, NCAR CSM 1.2 (M. Snyder) + vegetationNCAR CSM 1.2 (M. Snyder) + vegetation
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Hotspots of Change in Bird Species RichnessHotspots of Change in Bird Species Richness
Source: PRBO, Stralberg et al., unpublishedSource: PRBO, Stralberg et al., unpublished
gaingain
lossloss
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Public Land Ownership in CaliforniaPublic Land Ownership in California
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Department of Defense
Conservancy/Land Trust
State Conservancy
US Fish and Wildlife Service
Bureau of Reclamation
National Park Service
CA State Parks
CA State Lands Commission
CA Dept of Fish and Game
Bureau of Land Management
USDA Forest Service
CA Dept of Forestry
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Species Richness Change (mean % relative to current)
Whose Lands will Win or Lose the Most?Whose Lands will Win or Lose the Most?
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Where are the Where are the DoDDoD Lands in California?Lands in California?
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From N. Knowles, USGS
Sea level rise
Salinityincreases
Changes in Coastal WetlandsChanges in Coastal Wetlands
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SF BaySalinity increase / Elevation decrease (1 m SLR, no sediment accretion)
Projected Changes in Projected Changes in Common Yellowthroat DistributionCommon Yellowthroat Distribution
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Source: CEC(2006). Our Changing Climate: Assessing Risks to California. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/biennial_reports/2 006report/
Impacts of Hydrological ChangesImpacts of Hydrological Changes
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PRBO Conservation Science
Sources of Uncertainty
timetime
you areyou areherehere
increasing uncertaintyincreasing uncertainty
increasingincreasinguncertaintyuncertainty
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Modeling and DownscalingModeling and Downscaling
Source: Climate Impacts Group, Univ. WashingtonSource: Climate Impacts Group, Univ. Washington
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Quantity and Quality of DataQuantity and Quality of Data
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Ecological Niche Modeling AssumptionsEcological Niche Modeling Assumptions
Source: J. Rotenberry and J. Wiens, unpublishedSource: J. Rotenberry and J. Wiens, unpublished
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Demography: Climate and Song Sparrow Demography: Climate and Song Sparrow Reproduction in Marin CountyReproduction in Marin County
Source: N. Seavy et al. 2008 Source: N. Seavy et al. 2008 The AukThe Auk
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Source: PRBO analyses: PRISM climate (C. Daly) + 2080Source: PRBO analyses: PRISM climate (C. Daly) + 2080--2099 402099 40--km RCM Scenario A2, km RCM Scenario A2, NCAR CSM 1.2 (M Snyder) + vegetation; 2020 development projectioNCAR CSM 1.2 (M Snyder) + vegetation; 2020 development projections from D. ns from D. TheobaldTheobald
The Effects of Land Use:The Effects of Land Use:Oak Titmouse ProjectionsOak Titmouse Projections
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Extreme Events and ThresholdsExtreme Events and Thresholds
Source: U.S. Climate Change Science ProgramSource: U.S. Climate Change Science Program
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What Else?What Else?
-- DispersalDispersal
-- Species interactionsSpecies interactions
-- SourceSource--sink dynamicssink dynamics
-- Adaptation and evolutionAdaptation and evolution
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NoNo--analog Futuresanalog Futures
NoNo--analog Managementanalog Management
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PRBO Conservation Science
Comprehensive Adaptive Management
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Source: Williams et al. 2007. Department of Interior Adaptive MaSource: Williams et al. 2007. Department of Interior Adaptive Management Technical Guidenagement Technical Guide
Adaptive Management is not the SolutionAdaptive Management is not the Solutionfor Everythingfor Everything
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What does it Take?What does it Take?•• A management choice is to be madeA management choice is to be made
•• Learning can be appliedLearning can be applied
•• Clear and measurable objectives Clear and measurable objectives can be identifiedcan be identified
•• Information will reduce Information will reduce uncertaintyuncertainty
•• Monitoring is feasibleMonitoring is feasible
•• The institutional context existsThe institutional context exists
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When WonWhen Won’’t it Work?t it Work?
•• Decision making occurs only onceDecision making occurs only once
•• Monitoring cannot provide useful informationMonitoring cannot provide useful information
•• Conflicting objectives cannot beConflicting objectives cannot beresolvedresolved
•• Management can only addressManagement can only addresspart of the problempart of the problem
•• Risks are unacceptably highRisks are unacceptably high
•• Commitment to monitoring Commitment to monitoring is lackingis lacking
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Adaptive Management in the Adaptive Management in the Bay Delta Conservation PlanBay Delta Conservation Plan
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Problem Goals/Objectives
Models
Evaluate & Select Conservation Measures:
Research, Pilot, Full-Scale
Communicate & Assess
Data Collection & Management
Adaptive Management Framework
Reassess Problem
Revise objectives
Refine KB, models, re-
evaluate
Refine actions,
re-evaluate
Expected OutcomesPerformance Metrics
Design & Implement
CMs
Design & Implement Monitoring
Analyze, Synthesize, Evaluate
Knowledge Base
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managementmanagementactionaction
resourceresourcesystemsystem
environmentalenvironmentalconditionsconditions
managementmanagementactionaction
resourceresourcesystemsystem
environmentalenvironmentalconditionsconditions
managementmanagementactionaction
resourceresourcesystemsystem
environmentalenvironmentalconditionsconditions
Adaptive Management is DynamicAdaptive Management is Dynamic
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managementmanagementactionaction
resourceresourcesystemsystem
environmentalenvironmentalconditionsconditions
resourceresourcesystemsystem
environmentalenvironmentalconditionsconditions
environmentalenvironmentalconditionsconditions
But Learning may not Keep PaceBut Learning may not Keep Pacewith Environmental Changewith Environmental Change
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PRBO Conservation Science
What are the Take-away Messages?
•• Nature sets the rules, and Nature can change Nature sets the rules, and Nature can change the rulesthe rules
•• WeWe’’re helping to change the rulesre helping to change the rules
•• Climate change is moving us into a futureClimate change is moving us into a futurerife with uncertaintiesrife with uncertainties
•• This will make everyoneThis will make everyone’’s work more difficult s work more difficult ----and more urgentand more urgent
•• Partnerships and collaborations are essentialPartnerships and collaborations are essential
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PRBO Conservation Science
What Needs to be Done?
•• Develop nextDevelop next--generation models to projectgeneration models to projectfuture conditions future conditions –– these will provide athese will provide aglimpse of probable futures for which weglimpse of probable futures for which weshould planshould plan
•• Make Make strategicstrategic Adaptive Management Adaptive Management commonplace commonplace –– otherwise, we wonotherwise, we won’’t knowt knowwhether what we are doing is working andwhether what we are doing is working andwe will fall farther and farther behindwe will fall farther and farther behind
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PRBO Conservation Science
And Finally …
““The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise difficulty, and we must rise ---- with the occasion. As with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew.anew.””
-- Abraham Lincoln, 1862Abraham Lincoln, 1862
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PRBO Conservation Science
Thanks!