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資料 No.F-5

ADB TA No. 4371-AFG

Master Plan for Road Improvement Project (Master Plan Component)

Funded by: Asian Development Bank

Executing Agency:

Ministry of Public WorksIslamic Republic of Afghanistan

Draft Final Report November 2005

SHELADIA Associates Inc.USA

ADB TA No. 4371-AFG Master Plan for Road Network Improvement Project (Master Plan Component) Draft Final Report, November 2005

Table of Contents List of Abbreviations

1. Objective and Scope of the Technical Assistance ................................................1 1.1 Background....................................................................................................1 1.2 Objective........................................................................................................1 1.3 Scope of Work ...............................................................................................1 1.4 Reports and Workshops ................................................................................3 1.5 Organization of the Draft Report....................................................................3

2. Road Network .......................................................................................................6 2.1 Road Classification ........................................................................................6 2.2 Road Numbering System...............................................................................6 2.3 Road Lengths ................................................................................................8 2.4 Current Road Development Program ............................................................8 2.5 Road Priorities Identified for 2005-2010 ......................................................13 2.6 Analysis of Base Road Network ..................................................................13 2.7 Framework/Overall Network Development Objectives ................................19

3. Field Surveys ......................................................................................................22 3.1 Road Inventory and Condition Survey .........................................................22 3.2 Traffic Counts ..............................................................................................22 3.3 Meetings and Questionnaire for Governors.................................................22 3.4 Household Surveys......................................................................................25 3.5 Origin-Destination Survey............................................................................25 3.6 Summary of Road Conditions......................................................................26

4. Traffic Estimation ................................................................................................28 4.1 Traffic Modelling ..........................................................................................28 4.2 Base Year Trip Modelling ............................................................................30 4.3 Traffic Modelling for 2015 ............................................................................32

5. Road Development Requirements and Costs.....................................................36 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................36 5.2 Road Design Standards...............................................................................37 5.3 Road Development Options.........................................................................37 5.4 Construction Cost Estimates .......................................................................39 5.5 Road Maintenance Needs ...........................................................................40 5.6 Road Maintenance Costs ............................................................................42


6. Economic Analysis..............................................................................................44 6.1 Economic Analysis of Road Network Development Options .......................44 6.2 An Assessment of North-South Corridors....................................................45

7. Road Development Priorities ..............................................................................47 7.1 Link Evaluation ............................................................................................47 7.2 Link Evaluation Scores ................................................................................49 7.3 Functional Prioritization ...............................................................................50 7.4 Other Considerations in Preparing Road Investment Program ...................53

8. Road Development Plan and Expenditure Estimates 2006-2105.......................57 8.1 Summary of the Road Development Priorities and Costs ...........................57 8.2 Development Options ..................................................................................59 8.3 Road Expenditure Requirement 2006-2015 ................................................61 8.4 Road Funding ..............................................................................................64

9. Funding Sources for Road Maintenance ............................................................65 9.1 Existing Sources of Road Funding ..............................................................65 9.2 Future Sources of Road Maintenance Funding ...........................................66 9.3 Potential Income from Fuel Levy and Vehicle Registrations .......................68 9.4 Potential Income from Toll Roads................................................................68 9.5 Recommended Road Funding Mechanisms................................................71 9.6 Structure of the Toll Collection System........................................................72 9.7 Sensitivity Tests...........................................................................................74 9.8 Summary of Road User Funding .................................................................77

10. Master Plan Implementation ...............................................................................79 10.1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations.............................................79 10.2 Master Plan Implementation ........................................................................83

Appendices

1. Road Inventory and Traffic Survey Data

2. Summary of Current Road Projects

3. Sample Photo Inventory

4. Road Link AADT and Multi-Criteria Scores

5. Trade Analysis and Forecasts

6. Railway Construction Proposals

7. Social Analysis

8. Environmental Analysis

9. GIS based Road Network Information System


List of Abbreviations AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic AC Asphaltic Concrete ADB Asian Development Bank CG-TS Consultative Group – Transport Sector DBST Double Bituminous Surface Treatment EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EIRRP Emergency Infrastructure and Rehabilitation Project EU European Union GIS Geographic Information System GOA Government of Afghanistan GPS Global Positioning System JFPR Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency MCAT Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism MOE Ministry of Economy MOF Ministry of Finance MPW Ministry of Public Works MRRD Ministry of Rehabilitation and Rural Development NH National Highway O&M Operations and Maintenance pce passenger car equivalent PIP Public Investment Programme PR Provincial Road RH Regional Highway SIDA Swedish International Development Agency TA Technical Assistance UNOPS United Nations Office of Project Services USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank


1. Objective and Scope of the Technical Assistance

1.1 Background This Draft Final Report contains findings and recommendations from a study to prepare a Master Plan for Afghanistan's road sector. The study was conducted from January to October 2005 by Sheladia Asociates Inc., USA engaged under technical assistance provided by the Asian Development Bank to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Under the guidance of the officials of the Ministry of Public Works (MPW), and in close collaboration with the members of the Consultative Group – Transport Sector (CG-TS), the study team identified road development needs and priorities for the next 10 years (2006/1385 – 2015/1394) and is presented in this report. An Executive Summary of the Draft Final Report have been prepared in October 2005 and submitted for discussion within the government for adoption of the Master Plan. A summary of findings and recommendations is also included in Section 10 of this report.

1.2 Objective The Technical Assistance (TA) is assisting the Government of Afghanistan (GOA) to prepare a road master plan, which will define a road network development strategy and program over the next five to ten years (2006/1385 – 2015/1394) and estimate the financing requirements for investment and sustainable operation and maintenance (O&M). The main geographic focus is on areas presently under-served by the national road network. Proper consideration will also be given to connectivity to potential centres of economic activities, such as mining and gas production, and connectivity with neighbouring countries. The road master plan will define the most efficient road network within a multi-modal transport framework, giving due consideration to a railway option on some routes.

1.3 Scope of Work The TA Consultant worked closely with the Executing Agency, the Ministry of Public Works (MPW), and principal donor agencies in the development of the road master plan. Consultations were held with a broad range of stakeholders including other ministries, provincial governments, community representatives, donors and road users. Specific Consultant activities include (also see Figures 1.1 and 1.2): 1. Coordinate development of the road master plan with the Government’s existing

road improvement program and the transport planning activities of the Government and donors, and specifically with the Consultative Group – Transport Sector (CG-TS).

2. Review all available reports, databases and maps on the existing condition of the road network, the existing road construction program, further planned improvements and feasibility studies of new road projects.

3. Create a road database from existing data and field surveys which will include the necessary inventory, classification, condition and traffic data for road planning purposes.

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4. Conduct field surveys to collect additional data on road location, environs,

inventory, condition and traffic, including interviews to obtain sample origin-destination information and social indicators. The field surveys will be conducted on selected super corridors, national highways and provincial roads so as to provide a reasonably complete definition the main road network.

5. Develop a GIS-based road network database for the national and provincial road network which will include data on road location, classification, standard, condition and traffic on each road link.

6. Review current indicators and Government policies, plans and forecasts of social, demographic and economic development over the next 10-20 years. Identify requirements for goods and passenger transport with due attention to areas of poor access and high density of poverty, future economic growth centres and international transit traffic.

7. Develop a computerized road network model to facilitate traffic forecasts, identification of road network deficiencies and analysis of improvements.

8. Identify road network requirements over the next 10 years and develop options for road network improvements including upgrading existing roads and construction of new links. Estimate the investment costs of options.

9. Assess the impact of potential railway options on the road network in specific corridors on based on existing railway feasibility studies. Where necessary, hold meetings with representatives of the governments of Iran, Pakistan and Uzbekistan in Kabul concerning railway developments.

10. Estimate the financial requirements for investment and sustainable O&M of the main road network over the next 10 years. Review current expenditure on road investment and O&M and estimate the additional expenditures required for long-term sustainable O&M. Identify alternative sources of revenues including user charges that reflect damage responsibility, and collection and reporting efficiency. Based on the Transport Sector Review consultation papers, develop strategies for implementing pricing and cost recovery policies that will provide correct market signals to road users, ensure efficient use of resources and generate sufficient revenues for sustainable O&M. Prepare detailed plans for implementing O&M cost recovery for the main road network. Examine the extent to which user charges collection can be combined with control of vehicle weights and dimensions and conduct a preliminary analysis of the infrastructure and institutional arrangements required for implementation.

11. Conduct a preliminary analysis of possible environmental, social and resettlement impacts, and identify necessary and appropriate mitigative measures.

12. Develop prioritization criteria for investment including: economic rates of return (EIRR); contribution to national integration and peace; contribution to economic and regional development; improved access to areas of high poverty density; and financial requirements for sustainable O&M.

13. Develop a sustainable road master plan and development program based on the findings and conclusions of the previous activities and consultations with the Government and other major stakeholders.

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14. Assist the Government to arrange meetings with stakeholders and to conduct

workshops at important stages in the development of the road master plan.

15. Provide on-the-job training to Government counterparts in field survey and road planning procedures.

1.4 Reports and Workshops 1. Inception Report: submitted 15 February 2005.

2. First Interim Report: containing a profile of the road sector, preliminary forecasts of transport demand and recommendations for a project road for full feasibility study under the other component of the Road Master Plan TA. Submitted 4 May 2005. The First Workshop with key stakeholders including Government agencies, donors and provincial governments was held on 8 May 2005.

3. Second Interim Report: presenting the draft road master plan and a preliminary assessment of safeguard issues was submitted 23 July 2005. The Second Workshop with key stakeholders was held on 26 July 2005 to discuss and finalize the road network development options.

4. A Draft Summary Report summarizing the study findings were submitted on 17 October 2005 for initiating discussions within the Government for adoption of the Road Sector Master Plan. Draft Summary Report translated into Dari was also included in the submission.

5. Draft Final Report: presenting the road master plan and incorporating discussions and comments provided by the Government and major stakeholders, as well as the findings and recommendations of the supporting financial analysis. Submission by mid-Novemeber 2005.

6. Final Report: incorporating the comments made by the Government and ADB and presenting the road master plan endorsed by the Government will be submitted by end-December 2005.

1.5 Organization of the Draft Report This report is organized in 10 sections covering road network information, traffic forecast, development options, cost estimates for implementation, economic analysis, road development plan and expenditure estimates, assessment of funding sources and recommendations. A summary of findings and recommendations is also included in Section 10 of this report. Summary of data and analysis results are given in Appendices 1 to 4. Other elements of the study which covers trade analysis and forecasts, assessment of railway construction proposals, social analysis and resettlement framework, environmental analysis and the development of a GIS based road network information system are presented in Appendices 5 to 9.

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Figure 1.1 Flow Chart of Principal Tasks Figure 1.1 Flow Chart of Principal Tasks

1 Initial meetings with MPW, ADB, CG-TS, others Preliminary information collection

2. Identify and review information needed for road network planning Logistical planning of data collection

5. Field surveys 8. First Interim

Report and Workshop

10. Analyze transport infrastructure development requirements over the next 20 years under a multi-modal framework

11. Select network development options Forecast traffic Estimate construction costs

13. Assess environmental and social impacts and recommend mitigative measures Prepare an action plan to ensure that appropriate environmental and social safeguards are followed

15. Develop draft road sector master plan Prioritize and prepare 5 and 10 year implementation program

19. Final Report

12. Evaluate railway development options in potential corridors

14. Analyze road sector investment and maintenance costs, revenues, pricing and taxation and prepare detailed pricing and cost recovery strategy Prepare detailed plans for implementing O&M and cost recovery schemes for the primary road network including measures for controlling

6. GIS based road information system

7. Data analysis Preliminary assessment of network options

17. Finalize road sector master plan, priorities and 5 and 10 year implementation program

9. Review policies, plans and forecasts of social, demographic and economic development

18. Draft Final Report

16. Second Interim Report and Workshop

Review and approval by GOA and ADB

4. Inception Report

3. Review and update methodology and work program

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2. Road Network

2.1 Road Classification The master plan has adopted the road classification system contained in the Interim Road and Highway Standards1. The existing and planned road network identified under this system is summarized in Table 2.1. Many of the National Highways and Provincial Roads included here are not fully developed but are planned for development in the medium to long term.

Table 2.1 Road Network Classification and Length Road Classification Length, km Regional Highway 3,242 National Highway 4,884 Provincial Road 9,656

Subtotal 17,782 Rural Road (estimate) 17,000

Total 34,782 Urban roads are excluded

2.1.1 Functional Definitions As defined in the Interim Road and Highway Standards: Regional Highways (formerly Super Corridors): are (planned) for two-lane expansion to make four lanes, fostering regional trade and economic linkages between Afghanistan and the neighbouring countries, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Regional Highways are (will be) 4 lanes, dual 7-metre carriageway with medians. National Highways: promote trade and economic linkages and extend Regional Highways to provincial capitals contributing to peace, security, stability, economic growth and national integration. Provincial Roads: improve the administrative, trade and economic contacts between district headquarters and respective provincial capitals and between important district headquarters. Rural Roads: bring the hinterland in commercial contact with markets and seats of power. The master plan uses these functional definitions to classify and number all roads.

2.2 Road Numbering System There is no road numbering system at present in Afghanistan other than the road classification given above. The Consultants have adopted a road numbering system as follows: Regional Highways (RH): have a prefix of RH and a 2 digit number representing the Regional Highway section starting from 01 to 99. The Consultants recommend

1 Interim Road and Highway Standards, Ministry of Public Works, 21 March 2005

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dividing the Ring Road into four sections between Kabul, Kandahar, Hirat and Mazar-e-Sharif and numbering them 01 to 04. The suggested numbering of existing Regional Highways is shown in Table 2.2. National Highways (NH): have a prefix of NH and a 2-digit number representing the National Highway section starting from 01 to 99. At present there are fewer than 50 National Highway sections and so a 2-digit number will be used for the present. For example, the Bagrami – Jalalabad highway can be numbered as NH01. See Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 Regional and National Highway Numbering in Base Road Network Highway

No. Start End Length km

Regional Highways RH01 Kabul Kandahar 483 RH02 Kandahar Hirat 555 RH03 Hirat Mazar e Sharif 757 RH04 Mazar e Sharif Kabul 410 RH05 Kabul Torkham/Pakistan Border 216 RH06 Kandahar Spin Boldak/Pakistan Border 104 RH07 Dilaram Zaranj/Iran Border 217 RH08 Hirat Islam Qala/Iran Border 120 RH09 Hirat Torghundi/Turkemenistan Border 119 RH10 Andkhoy Aqina/Turkmenistan Border 37 RH11 Naibabad Hayratan/Uzbekistan Border 57 RH12 Puli Khumri Sher Khan Bandar/Tajikistan Border 167 Total 3242

National Highways NH01 Jalalabad Asmar 124 NH02 Jalalabad Nuristan 67 NH03 Kabul Jalalabad (Gandamak Road) 155 NH04 Jabalussaraj Surobi (via Kohistan-Mahmud Raqi) 105 NH05 Chaharikar Yakalang (via Bamyan) 248 NH06 Maidan Shar Hirat (via Panjab-Chagcharan) 855 NH07 Hisa I Awali Bihsud Dushi 209 NH08 Kabul Gulum Khan (via Pule Alam-Gardez-Khost) 297 NH09 Sayd Abad (RH01) Khoshi 58 NH10 Ghazni Gardez (via Zurmat) 90 NH11 Ghazni Zurmat (via Sharan) 116 NH12 Matun Gurbuz 7 NH20 Kandahar NH06 (E-W Highway via Tirin Kot) 468 NH21 Ghirishk Khanishin 268 NH22 Dilaram Gard Holang 362 NH31 Dilaram Farah Rod (via Farah) 203 NH40 Shibirghan Chaghcharan 324 NH41 Panjab Mazar e Sharif 362 NH42 Khulm Kunduz 104 NH43 Kunduz Ishkashim 365 NH44 Taluqan Yangi Qala 97 Total 4884

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In order to give a regional orientation to numbering, National Highways are numbered according to the nearest major city. National Highways close to Kabul, Kandahar, Hirat and Mazar-e-Sherif are numbered 01 to 19, 20 to 29, 30 to 39 and 40 to 49 respectively as can be seen from Table 2.2. Among the National Highways, NH20 (north of Trininkot), NH22, NH40, NH41 forming the two North-South corridors are not well defined in terms of alignment. The alignment for NH41 is concurrently being studied separately as part of the feasibility study component of the Master Plan TA by another study team. Provincial Roads (PR): have a prefix of PR and a 4-digit number representing the Provincial number code (2-digit geo-code) and 2 digits representing the Provincial Road section starting from 01 to 99. For example, the Aybak-Dara-I-Suf Provincial Road in Samangan can be numbered as PR1503 where 15 is the Provincial geo-code for Samagan and 03 is the section from Aybak to Dara-I-Suf. See Appendix 1. Rural Roads (RR): will have a prefix RR and the District number code and a 2-digit number again representing the Rural Road section starting from 01 to 99. For example, a Rural Road in Dara I Suf district (District geo-code is 1504) of Samangan province can be numbered RR1504-01.

2.3 Road Lengths Except for current projects, most roads have not been surveyed or earlier survey information has been lost. Road alignments are being changed and some roads are being extended under current rehabilitation or improvement projects. Many Provincial Roads are being extended to new district centres. Hence the road inventory is changing continuously and it is not possible to draw up a list of accurate road lengths. The master plan has used a combination of sources to obtain a best estimate of road lengths: • Project update information from CG-TS • Recent feasibility studies and project reports • MPW inventory information and AIMS maps • Information from Provincial Governors Office • Digitized road network map The road network considered for the master plan preparation based on these sources and including road links to new district centres based on the data obtained from various Provincial Governor’s offices is presented in Figure 2.1.

2.4 Current Road Development Program Afghanistan is receiving extensive assistance from the international donor community to reconstruct and further develop the road network. MPW is the primary implementing agency. The international donors funding road construction works include: • USAID • Asian Development Bank • World Bank • United Nations • European Union • Islamic Development Bank • Japan

• Kuwait • India • Iran • Italy • Pakistan • Saudi Arabia • Sweden

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Fig 2.1

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Other donors are providing technical assistance in the form of project feasibility studies, engineering design and construction supervision services and training. The current road development program as updated by the Consultative Group – Transport Sector is summarized in Tables 2.3 and 2.4 with further details given in Figure 2.2 and Appendix 2. Regional Highways The focus of the road program is the reconstruction and completion of the ring road and principal road connections with neighbouring countries (the regional highway network). Together the current or planned projects will complete the existing Regional Highways network to a two-lane paved road standard, with certain four-lane sections near Kabul and Kandahar. The next development stage will be the improvement of high-trafficked sections to a four-lane standard eg. Kabul-Chaharikar. The master plan examines the need to improve other sections as traffic increases. Other Roads Other road programs are being carried out to reconstruct or improve National Highways (Table 2.4), Provincial Roads and Rural Roads. NEEPRA and NRAP are reconstructing a large number of Provincial Roads and Rural Roads.

Table 2.3 Current Development Program for Regional Highways

Road Section Length km

Committed Funds/Contract Price, ($ million)

Description

RH01 Kabul-Kandahar 483 $237 US $29 Japan

Originally with asphalt concrete pavement. Rehabilitation/ reconstruction work is nearing completion with assistance from United States (389 km) and Japan (53 km).

RH02 Kandahar-Gereshk-Dilaram-Hirat

555 $76 Japan $45 Saudi $140 US

Cement concrete pavement severely damaged. Rehabilitation work has started for Kandahar-Gereshk section (114 km) with Japan assistance. Gereshk-Dsection (115 km) with Saudi Arabia-United States assistance not started. Dilaram-Hirat section (326 km) started with United States assistance.

elaram

RH03 Hirat-Bala Murghab 243 $30 Iran NA Saudi

Gravel/earthen road. Includes the Sabzak Pass (2,500 m elevation). Requires substantial improvement including realignment. Iran completed the first section (60 km) to Armalik. Remaining section to be funded by Saudi Arabia.

RH03 Bala Murghab-Qaysar 100 $55 Gravel/earthen road requiring substantial improvement. Bid documents are under preparation. Funded by ADB.

RH03 Qaysar-Andkhoy 210 $80 Gravel/earthen road with embankment and bridges/culverts provided. Funded by ADB.

RH03 Andkhoy-Mazar e Sharif

204 Except the first 22 km from Andkhoy, retains asphalt concrete pavement. Rehabilitation is under way with ADB-Japan assistance.

RH04 Mazar e Sharif-Puli Khumri

188

$90

Retains asphalt concrete pavement. Rehabilitation is under way with ADB-Japan assistance.

RH04 Puli Khumri-Kabul 222 $80 Puli Khumri-Doshi section (47 km) is relatively in good condition and to be further improved with Islamic Development Bank assistance. Work on Doshi-Kabul section (175 km) is ongoing with World Bank assistance. Rehabilitation of the Salang Tunnel (3.5 km long at 3,363 m above sea level) was completed; it was handed over to the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) in July 2004.

RH05 Kabul-Torkham (border of Pakistan)

216 Eur 35/28 EU Eur 35/30 EU NA Pakistan

Reconstruction of Kabul-Jalalabad section (142 km) under way with assistance of the European Union. Reconstruction of Jalalabad-Torkham section (74 km) under way with assistance of Pakistan. A new bypass is considered to augment the capacity of this section.

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Committed Funds/Contract Price, ($ million)

Description

RH06 Kandahar-Spin Boldak (border of Pakistan)

104 $25 Rehabilitation work is under way with assistance from Japan/ADB and Kuwait.

RH07 Dilaram-Zaranj 212 $84 Reconstruction started with assistance of India. RH07 Zaranj-Milak (border

of Iran) 5 $5 A 320 m bridge across the border completed with

assistance of Iran. Approach roads to the border are being improved by Iran.

RH08 Hirat-Islam Qala (border of Iran)

120 $50 Upgrading to a 7.3 m carriageway asphalt surface road is is completed with assistance of Iran.

RH09 Hirat-Torghandi (border of Turkmenistan)

119 None Cement concrete surface maintained in a relatively good condition. Further improvement is planned.

RH10 Andhkoy-Aqina (border of Turkmenistan)

37 None Dirt road. Planned to be improved with external assistance.

RH11 Naibabad-Hayratan (border of Uzbekistan)

57 Included in Mazar to Puli

Khumri

Retains asphalt concrete pavement and is relatively in good condition. Rehabilitation is under way with ADB-Japan assistance.

RH12 Puli Khumri-Sher Khan Bandar 167 $30 Construction/rehabilitation under way with World Bank

assistance. RH12 Nizhni Pyanzh

(Tajikistan)-Sher Khan Bandar —

NA Contract for construction of a new 670 m long two-traffic lane bridge over the Pyanzh river bordering Afghanistan and Tajikistan has been awarded, with United States assistance.

Total 3242 Approx. $1100 excluding NA


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Source: ADB and Consultative Group-Transport Sector status report, July 2005

Table 2.4 Current Development Program for National Highways and Other Roads


Committed Funds/Contract Price, $ millions

Description

NH05-NH06 Maidan Shar-Bamyan

140 Eur 36 Rehabilitation with assistance of Italy. 75 km will be paved, remainder gravel.

NH01 Jalalabad-Asmar 124 $26 NH08 Kabul-Gardez 123 $50 NH08 Gardez-Khost 105 NA NH09 RH01-Pul e Alam 30 $6 NH10 Ghazni-Gardez 90 NA Reconstruction/improvement under USAID

NH11 Ghazni-Sharan 55 $11 NH20 Kandahar-Tirin Kot 148 $26

NH21 Gereshk-Laskergarh 49 $13 NH31 Farah Rod-Farah 72 NA NH40 Sheberghan-Sari Pul 55 15 NH43 Taluqan-Faizabad 173 $29 US

NA WB Rehabilitation and reconstruction with assistance from WB (Taluqan-Keshim) and USAID (Keshim-Faizabad).

Subtotal 1164 NEEPRA 2000 $39 Funded by WB and implemented by UNOPS

Source: ADB and Consultative Group-Transport Sector status report, July 2005

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2.5 Road Priorities Identified for 2005-2010 The Transport National Programme PIP identifies a list of road improvement priorities to be implemented in the next five years, in addition to completion of the regional highway network. These are summarized in Table 2.5.

Table 2.5 Priority Projects Proposed for 2005-2010

Road Section Length km Description

RH01 Kabul-Kandahar 100 Road widening RH04 Kabul-Chaharikar 51 Road widening NH04-NH02 Jabalsaraj-Nooristan

172

NH06 Hirat-Chagcharan (East-West Highway)

351 Feasibility study being funded by Swedish SIDA

NH31 Dilaram-Farah 253 Connection of Farah to the ring road

NH40-NH22 North-South Highway Shebarghan-Dilaram

775 Pi

ermit direct north-south movement and connect naccessible central parts to the ring road

NH41-NH20 North-South Highway Mazar-Lai Sarjangal-Trin Kot

528 Feasibility study being funded by USAID

NH42 Khulm-Kunduz NH43 Kishim-Ishkashim

393 CKi

ompletion of improvements to direct route from hulm to Ishkashim leading to better links with China

n future Total 2623

2.6 Analysis of Base Road Network

2.6.1 Road Network Accessibility

Afghanistan has a total land area of 0.65 million sq. km and a population of about 22 million. It is estimated that Afghanistan has a total road network of 35-40,000 km including rural roads (more than 85 % of this road network is in bad condition of which a major portion is not motorable). The Regional, National and Provincial road network identified for development include about 17,500 km. It is possible to make some broad estimate of level of accessibility provided by the road network, based on some assumptions. Accessibility, in this context, is measured in terms of the distance to the nearest section of the road network for any population. A random road network model2 was used for this analysis. A random road network can be described as infinitely long straight roads randomly scattered over an area. For a random road network, the mean distance to the nearest road is: Area Mean distance (m) = ---------------- x ½ Road length For a random road network, the proportion of the area farther than a given distance (d) to the network is given by:

2 ‘Some limitations to the opportunities for road investment to promote rural development’ by JL Hine, International conference on Roads and Development, Paris, May 1984.

13


e-d/m

where m is the calculated mean distance to the network. The accessibility estimates with different road length scenarios are given in Table 2.6.

Table 2.6 Road length and accessibility under different assumptions Mean access distance (km) assuming inhabited land area of

Percentage of area further than 5 km, assuming inhabited land area of

Road length (km)

40 % 50 % 60 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 15,000 8.6 10.8 12.9 55.9 62.8 67.9

17,500 7.4 9.2 11.1 50.8 58.2 63.6

20,000 6.5 8.1 9.7 46.1 53.8 59.7

30,000 4.3 5.4 6.5 31.3 39.5 46.1

40,000 3.2 4.0 4.8 21.2 29.0 35.6

50,000 2.6 3.2 3.9 14.4 21.2 27.5

60,000 2.2 2.7 3.2 9.8 15.6 21.2

70,000 1.8 2.3 2.8 6.6 11.4 16.4

80,000 1.6 2.0 2.4 4.5 8.4 12.7

Assuming 50 percent of the land area is habitable (after accounting for forests and water bodies and the mountainous topography and other uninhabitable areas), mean access distance to either a Regional, National or Provincial road included in the base road network is estimated at 9.2 km which is a fairly good accessibility level for the major road network in a country. Including the estimated rural road network, the mean access distance improves to about 4 km. However, with less than one sixth of the road network in fair to good condition at present, the road accessibility level is very poor. The total road length required for providing a road access with a mean access distance of 2 km in the inhabited area is estimated at 80,000 km. The model estimate that with 80,000 km of road length, only less than 10 percent of the assumed inhabited land area will be further than 5 km from a road. This indicates the extent of road network expansion needed for providing a reasonable level of road connectivity to all the population.

2.6.2 Road Network Mobility The road network in Afghanistan is under development and hence for the analysis of the road network mobility, four stages are considered as below:

Stage 1: Existing network Stage 2: Completion of all ongoing projects and projects for which funding is

committed in the PIP Stage 3: Completion of all Regional and National Highways and at least 50% of

the Provincial Roads included in the base road network Stage 4: Completion of all roads included in the base road network

14


The mobility index of traffic zones (Figure 2.3) shows considerable variation within the Provinces and across the country. For example, in Balkh province, the MI varies from 2 to 6 indicating better MI for zones along the Ring Road and poor MI for zones far away from Ring Road. The average MI for provinces through which Ring Road does not pass is very high. The provincial level mobility index shown in Figure 2.4 indicate that mobility will improve significantly for only a few provinces in the next 3-4 years (Stage 2) with the completion of ongoing projects. Bagdhis and Faryab shows considerable improvement with the completion of Ring Road. With Stage 3 network, mobility improves vastly (still many zones will have their MI higher than 2), but achieving this may take more than 10 years and will need major initiatives in resource generation and capacity building. Stage 4 network, with all districts linked by a good road with all rehabilitation completed and the roads are maintained to provide the desired level of service (MI for all zones becoming close to 1) indicate the target desirable national road network development.

The study area, defined as the entire country, was delineated into traffic zones for the purpose of analyzing the travel pattern and calculating accessibility/connectivity measures of different network development scenarios. For the spatial analysis, the country has been divided into 188 traffic zones with each zone constituting one or more districts. Network analysis model developed for traffic modelling was used to estimate the travel time between all traffic zones by the shortest travel route (speed determined by the condition of the road) between them. The mobility index calculated for all traffic zones (each point indicating MI of a traffic zone within that Province) for the current state of road network (Stage 1) is shown in Figure 2.3. The average Provincial level mobility index (average for all traffic zones in a Province) in various stages of network development is shown in Figure 2.4.

Mobility Index (MI) = ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The mobility offered by the road network from various parts of the country in various stages of network development has been measured using Mobility Index which is defined as the ratio of estimated travel time (speed determined by the condition of the road) between an origin and destination and the travel time at desired speed. This will indicate relative level of road network development in various parts of the country and help in identifying any area where road network is significantly underdeveloped compared to other parts of the country. A mobility index of 1 indicates that the network is well developed and one can travel between the two zones at the desired speed. The mobility index values increase as the condition of the network deteriorates.

Travel time at desired speed

Estimated travel time (speed determined by the condition of the road) between an origin and destination

15

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2.6.3 Distribution of Main Road Network In planning road network development, it is very important that the road network is equitably developed in all provinces, in order to promote general economic and social development objectives. The main consideration in the evaluation of new road projects is generally the economic viability. As a result, less developed areas with low traffic generation potential are often either not taken up or given low priority, further increasing the disparity in development. The present study objectives include the equitable development of the road network to ensure that selected road network will facilitate the development of all regions. The results of an analysis of province wise distribution of base road network when developed fully (Stage 4) is given in Figures 2.5 and 2.6. The graphs show length of roads per sq. km area and length of roads per 1000 population. The graphs also include a population density index (Indexes used in the two figures are factored by 10). The analysis indicates that the development of base road network in general provides a balanced distribution of road length among the provinces in relation to population density. There is significant difference in distribution of road lengths in provinces but as can be expected provinces with a higher population density has a higher road density. However, there are significant variation from the expected pattern in the case of some of the provinces like in Kunduz, Kapisa, Nangarhar (lower than expected) and, in Farah and Nimroz for example higher than expected. While preparing the road development program, it should be ensured that there is a balanced distribution of road network development and areas with lower potential are not neglected totally.

0.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.1000.1200.1400.1600.1800.200

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GH UZ ZL BS

KP

PK FB BG GZ

BL

BM TK PY PR WD

NG LR KB

KR LG KH

Length of roads (km) per sq. km area Population density index

Figure 2.5 Traffic Zone wise distribution of road length per sq. km area with Stage 4 road network

18


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KB KP KZ

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KD

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KH

BG

KR UZ

BD HL ZL NR

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BM PK BS NZ

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Length of roads (km) per 1000 population Population density index

Figure 2.6 Traffic Zone wise distribution of road length per 1000 population with Stage 4 road network

2.7 Framework/Overall Network Development Objectives Development of the road network needs to support the main external trade corridors and the country’s overall development needs and objectives, particularly those, which relate to spatial/ regional development. In defining the road network to achieve the development objectives, consideration should be given to two aspects: 1) the limited connectivity of the today’s national, provincial and rural road networks to serve most areas of the country; and 2) the importance to develop the main traffic corridors. The criteria against which the road network development plans could be vetted include: • the size of the country and its structure of production and population distribution; • the level of mobility given by the road network; • the cost to the economy of unreliable, deteriorated network; • facilitation of export/import and transit trade; • road network’s importance in creating regional balance (and connectivity); • contribution of the road network in providing basic services; • importance of the road network in expanding agricultural production, mining and

other economic activities, or in intensification of existing economic activities; • financial and institutional capacity for implementing the plan. In preparing a road network development master plan, priority should be given both to those parts of the network, which are of strategic importance in economic terms, as well as those parts, which provide access to essential services. These twin objectives are quite different in nature and reflect well the emphasis on both economic efficiency and social equity. It requires that individual road links need to be prioritized on the basis of both economic evaluation criteria and supplementary criteria which would support improving access to public and private services to previously isolated communities. There is frequently a lag in development impact in opening up new areas for development, or providing access to previously isolated

19


Use road development as a powerful instrument to accelerate exploitation of natural resources, alleviate poverty and eliminate dependence on opium cultivation. This can be done in several ways: a) by building road links in previously isolated areas bring them in connection with other, more developed parts of the country and thus help in fostering outward and inward penetration of government and private services and trade; b) creating employment through road construction works, as well as the multiplier effect of through increased transport and other services and trade; c) allowing for improved productivity of agriculture by reducing input costs and increasing farm gate prices, this will allow for expansion of agriculture to potentially cultivable lands previously not feasible for production due to high transport costs; d) support of directed poverty alleviation programs by improving access to educational and health facilities, as well as other government and private services, and allowing for more frequent visits by service providers, including NGOs. Improved access and breaking of isolation is perhaps one of the most important factors for sustainable poverty reduction. Experience also shows that outside service providers would only come if access is secured.

The overall analysis approach adopted for the road network identification and preparation of road network master plan is shown in Figure 2.7.

20

Improve the internal connectivity within the country between the regions and reduce the presently very Ring Road centered road system;

Support the development and strengthening of the main external trade corridors and the country’s efforts to promote more efficient trade (including transit trade ) and transport facilitation;

Three broad development objectives are identified as the basis for network analysis and preparation of the Road Network Master Plan:

communities. Therefore supplementary criteria need to be used in preparing the investment program to ensure that the road development is equitably distributed.

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3. Field Surveys The following surveys were conducted over the period March – July 2005: • Road inventory and condition survey • Traffic counts • Provincial governors questionnaire • Household questionnaire • Origin-Destination survey The coverage of the surveys is summarized in Table 3.1. Survey results are contained in the Appendices.

3.1 Road Inventory and Condition Survey Road surveys were carried out in all but two provinces3 to inventory and assess road conditions and traffic, concentrating on National Highways and Provincial Roads. Regional Highways were not surveyed because nearly all are being reconstructed or rehabilitated with donor assistance under the current road program. However, traffic counts and O-D surveys were taken at key locations on the Regional Highway network. National Highways currently being improved were also not surveyed. It was not possible to carry out full surveys in eight provinces because the security requirements were beyond the resources available to the team. Instead, a photo inventory was made at fixed intervals along the roads in five provinces (Paktya, Nimroz, Paktika, Ghor, Nuristan and Khost). No surveys were conducted in Zabul and Uruzgan due to the precarious security situation there. Table 3.1 shows the percentage of road length and number of roads or road sections that were surveyed. Appendix 1 contains a summary road inventory; Appendix 3 contains sample photo inventories for selected roads.

3.2 Traffic Counts Two-day 12-hour manual classification counts were made at 91 locations as shown in Table 3.1. The locations and dates of the traffic counts are identified in Appendix 1. Summary of traffic count data is also given in Appendix I. In addition, moving vehicle counts were taken during the road inventory surveys on most roads. The data are contained in the detailed road inventory database. The composition of traffic (motorized) observed on the Ring Road (RH01, RH02, RH03, RH04), National Highways and Provincial Roads are shown in Figure 3.1. The average composition in terms of passenger, goods and slow moving vehicles is given in Figure 3.2. The proportion of slow moving vehicles and carts was observed to reduce from 36% in Provincial Roads to only 6% in Regional Highways.

3.3 Meetings and Questionnaire for Governors In each province the procedure was to meet the provincial governors and MPW zone engineers first to identify the Provincial Roads and discuss their perceived needs and priorities. Each province was given a questionnaire to complete describing (1) existing roads, (2) new roads needed, (3) characteristics of the areas served and (4) priorities. In many provinces new districts are being created therefore a common requirement is to extend the existing roads (or tracks) to connect those new district 3 Uruzgan and Zabul.

22


centres with the provincial centres. The responses from the Provinces are given in Appendix 1.

Table 3.1 Summary of Field Surveys

No. Province

Length of RH

Surveyed, km

Length of NH

Surveyed, km

Length of PR

Surveyed, km

Provincial Governor Question-

naire

Household Question-

naire1 Kabul 0.0 86.42 Kapisa 60.0 19.3 Yes3 Parwan 162.0 101.24 Wardak 0.0 53.0 Yes5 Logar 51.2 114.06 Ghazni 0.0 80.2 Yes7 Paktya (1) 82.5 119.58 Nangarhar 0.0 191.8 Yes9 Laghman 51.1 49.3 Yes

10 Kunar 66.1 91.0 Yes11 Badakhshan 129.7 58.0 Yes Yes12 Takhar 59.0 154.9 Yes13 Baghlan 30.0 93.7 137.3 Yes14 Kunduz 103.8 23.3 Yes Yes15 Samangan 0.0 111.1 Yes Yes16 Balkh 99.7 323.2 Yes Yes17 Jawzjan 0.0 152.0 Yes Yes18 Faryab 0.0 39.6 Yes19 Badghis 29.0 0.0 138.1 Yes20 Hirat 112.0 0.0 477.2 Yes21 Farah 102.0 29.8 Yes22 Nimroz (1) 0.0 324.623 Hilmand 0.0 64.7 Yes24 Kandahar 0.0 122.225 Zabul 26 Uruzgan 27 Ghor (1)28 Bamyan 148.5 96.7 Yes29 Paktika (1) 0.0 30.030 Nuristan (1) 0.0 10.031 Sari Pul 12.8 161.5 Yes Yes32 Khost (1) 0.0 43.033 Panjsheer

171.0 1222.1 3402.9 19 73242 4884 9656 34 345% 25% 35% 56% 21%

Sections surveyed 3 26 98Total network sections 130 137 269% network sections surveyed 2% 19% 36%Sections with traffic counts 14 34 43% network sections with trafficcounts 11% 25% 16%1. Photo inventory only due to security situation

Length surveyed, kmTotal network, km% network km surveyed

Not surveyed Not surveyed

Included in Parwan

23


Figure 3.1 Composition of Motorized Traffic Observed on Regional Highways,

National Highways and Provincial Roads

Car/4WD40%

Small/ Medium Bus18%

Large Bus3%

Pickup/ Small Truck10%

Medium Truck12%

Large Truck9%

MAV / Tractor8%

Regional Highways

01-04

Car/4WD34%


Large Bus2%


Medium Truck12%

Large Truck8%

MAV / Tractor4%

National

Highways

Car/4WD27%


Large Bus1%


Medium Truck12%

Large Truck9%

MAV / Tractor1%

Provincial

Roads

24


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Provincial Highways National Highways Regional Highways

Passenger Vehicles Goods Vehicles SMV's and Carts

Figure 3.2 Summary Average Traffic Composition

3.4 Household Surveys Household surveys were conducted in the following provinces:

No. of Households Surveyed

11 12 14 15 16 17 18 31

Badakhshan Takhar Kunduz Samangan Balkh Jawzjan Faryab Sari Pul

11 18 3 3 16 9 4 5

Main observations from the analysis of the household survey are: • About 70% of trips made by a household are to the Market Center / District HQ,

while 25% are to the Provincial HQ and about 5% trips are out of the Province. • Average daily person trip rate is 0.0070 for trips out of province, 0.0150 to the

Provincial HQ and 0.040 for trips to District HQ

3.5 Origin-Destination Survey O-D surveys were carried out at the following locations: RH01 RH04 RH12 NH42 PR1302 PR1605

Kabul-Kandahar Puli Khumri-Kabul Baghlan- Baghlan Jadid Khulm-Kunduz Kinjan-Andarab Balkh-Dawlatabd

Maydan Shar between Puli Khumri and Doshi North of Baghlan Bandar Young Arilch west of Kunduz east of Kinjan Kohna Zawt north of Balkh

22 May 05 29 May 05 28 May 05 26 May 05 29 May 05 25 May 05

25


The survey locations cover Regional Highways, National Highways and Provincial Roads. The survey was carried out on a sample basis for a period of 12 hours (6.00 to 18.00 hours) by stopping vehicles with help of security personnel. The O/D surveys were carried out along with volume counts in order to calculate expansion factors. The information collected for passenger vehicles includes, vehicle type, origin and destination of trip, occupancy and purpose of the trip. In the case of Goods Vehicles, additional information on commodity being transported was also collected. In order to ascertain the travel pattern, the study area was broadly classified into 32 provinces. The collected data from the survey has been coded and processed to eliminate all illogical data and entry errors. The processed data has been expanded to total traffic using the calculated expansion factors for each vehicle type. The expanded data was used in building the trip matrix for passenger vehicles and goods vehicles separately. The trip matrices are presented in Appendix 1. From the analysis of the trip matrices it was observed that in the case of Provincial Roads, more than 90% of the traffic is either originated or destined within the Province, while the National Highways contribute to traffic from more than one province and the Regional Highways contribute to traffic from different regions. However, from the data it was not possible to identify import-export traffic as origins and destinations are given as Kabul in the case of survey on RH04 and Kabul or Kandahar in the case of survey on RH01. Summary of traffic origins and destinations observed (proportion of trips having each province as origin or destination) are given in Appendix 1.

3.6 Summary of Road Conditions The overall condition of the road network is summarized in Table 3.2 and a photo inventory of a sample of representative roads is contained in Appendix 2. Key features of the road network are noted below: • Over 90% of PRs and NHs are either earth or gravel and there is often no clear

distinction between the construction standard of a NH and PR. • The condition of the PRs surveyed was marginally better than the NHs surveyed

underlining this lack of distinction. It is possible the poorer condition of NHs is due to higher traffic.

• The pavement condition rating is subjective and often influenced by spot defects.

Many roads are motorable along the greater part of their length but are impassable at specific locations such as rivers and sections where severe erosion or landslides have occurred.

• Many gravel pavements have stood up extremely well despite a lack of

maintenance over the past 25 years and are motorable at speeds of 50km/h or higher on stretches.

26


Provincial Roads % by length

Earth Gravel Bituminous37.0% 61.9% 1.1%Good Fair Poor Bad2.0% 31.9% 56.5% 9.7%<6m 6-8m 9-12m >12m

14.3% 60.9% 24.7% 0.0%Flat Rolling Hilly Mountainous

64.8% 6.7% 20.3% 8.2%

National Highways

Earth Gravel Bituminous38.2% 55.0% 6.8%Good Fair Poor Bad2.2% 25.6% 65.0% 7.3%<6m 6-8m 9-10m >10m4.9% 73.7% 21.4% 0.0%Flat Rolling Hilly Mountainous

46.8% NA 41.3% 11.8%

Pavement Type

Pavement Condition

Formation Width

Pavement Type

Pavement Condition

Formation Width

Terrain

Terrain

Table 3.2 Summary of Road Conditions • Except for newly-constructed bridges, most bridges and culverts are in bad

condition. Many are in danger of collapse from heavily-loaded vehicles or from being washed away. The loss of a single bridge can isolate large numbers of people.

• A very large number of creeks and rivers have to be forded, and any rise in water

level may cut of the remainder of the road. There are very few low-level causeways or slipways which would alleviate this problem.

• Many roads are impassable in winter due to snow, flooding and waterlogged

pavements. Areas are either cut off or forced to use long circuitous routes. The overall condition of the road network is much worse during winter.

• 75% to 80% of roads have a roadway with of <8 m. They could be rehabilitated

or reconstructed to the Low-Volume Road standard recommended elsewhere in the report with the little or no widening. However, improving such roads to a Minor Road standard with 9m roadway will involve significantly higher costs.

• Many roads are unsafe by international standards. The mitigating factors are that

traffic volumes are generally low, travel speeds are low and vehicles do not drive at night. No accident information was obtained so it is not possible to gauge the extent of road accidents or deaths.

27


4. Traffic Estimation

4.1 Traffic Modelling Road network planning and development requires a basic understanding of the travel characteristics, trip generation and travel patterns over the planning horizon. The analysis of the impact of road improvements and construction of new links on mobility (travel time and travel costs) and traffic at the network level can best be done using a transport model. For the present study a transport model has been developed to estimate: • Traffic on existing and new links over the analysis period • Shift of traffic from competing corridors (e.g., building north-south corridor will

result in traffic diversion from the Ring Road and may delay the need for augmenting the capacity of Ring Road sections)

• Network level increase in traffic due to increase in activity with new/improved access and improved level of service

• Change in traffic pattern due to network development • Impact of alternative network development scenarios The transport modelling process involves the following steps:

• Define and code the road network • Develop trip production and attraction estimates for base year and forecast years • Trip distribution and traffic assignment • Model validation • Traffic forecast

4.1.1 Network Definition and Coding The base road network identified has been defined in terms of a set of nodes and links for analyzing the network using the transportation planning software QRS II. Each intersection is treated as a node. Also main towns or terminating points are also treated as a node. The road connecting two nodes is called a link. The road network was coded by giving unique numbers for nodes along the roads. The node numbering system proposed is related to the road numbering system proposed earlier. The node number used will have two parts; the first part is the road number (eg: RH01, NH11, 2204 etc.) of the higher-class road and the second part will be a two digit number (11 to 99). For e.g.: the nodes along Kabul-Kandahar Road will be numbered as RH01-11, RH01-12, RH01-13 etc. starting from Kabul. The road section between two nodes is called a link and is defined by the road number and the two node numbers. Coded road network was created for the base year (2005) and each of the forecast period (2015). The base year network is created to represent the current condition, connectivity and speed. The year 2015 network was created assuming all roads rehabilitated in order to assess the traffic potential of each road when all roads in the network are improved. It is possible to estimate traffic with different road network development assumptions. However, this will not indicate the true potential. For example, if the long term plan is to build two North-South corridors, analyzing with developing only one corridor will give a substantially different traffic estimate for planning purpose. However, for actual economic assessment of these corridors, traffic modelling is to be done using realistic scenario of road development.

28


4.1.2 Trip Production and Attraction Modelling The study area, defined as the entire country, was delineated into traffic zones for the purpose of analyzing the travel pattern and calculating accessibility/connectivity measures of different network development scenarios. For the spatial analysis, the country has been divided into 188 traffic zones with each zone constituting one or more districts. The traffic zone map and details are shown in Appendix 1. The socio-economic parameters of a traffic zone determine the number of trips generated or attracted to that zone. Quantified socio-economic parameters that are available at district level for modelling trip production and attraction are only population and land cover details. Agricultural production details are available at province level for wheat and at country level for others. Industrial production levels are also available at aggregate level as well as by industry. Disaggregation of these data to traffic zones was attempted for modelling. For e.g., zone wise agricultural production was estimated in relation to irrigated land area. The quantities of goods exported and imported through various entry/exit points have been gathered from the Customs department and Ministry of Interior and the statistical handbook. Various approaches for trip production and attraction modelling have been examined. Within the timeframe and resources available, the only alternative is to use an approach for which the required information can be obtained from secondary sources and limited primary surveys. Three approaches have been tried: (1) relating link volumes to the socio-economic parameters of the influence area for selected links where a clear influence area can be defined, (2) identify each traffic generating component and for each traffic generating component, use trip rate estimates or production/attraction quantities to estimate the trip production and attraction and, (3) estimate trip generation rates through primary interview surveys in a few sample villages. Approaches 1 and 3 were tried to generate passenger trip rate estimates. Approach 2 was used for quantifying goods traffic production and attraction. For e.g, agricultural trip productions as a function of food surplus or deficit in a zone, fertilizer and other input usage. The border point statistics on export/import quantities as well as transit traffic information was used to estimate the trip productions and attractions at those points. Goods traffic movement related to household consumption was estimated from average income and consumption levels. The trip pattern information from origin-destination traffic surveys were also used in validating the estimates.

4.1.3 Trip distribution, Traffic Assignment and Model Validation The QRS II transport model was used to carry out trip distribution, traffic assignment and model validation. Trips are distributed based on the relationship that trips between two traffic zones will be directly proportional to the trip productions in those zones and inversely proportional to the travel time between them. This is carried out iteratively to obtain reasonable comparison between observed and predicted trip length distribution. The trips thus distributed are assigned on to the network based on the shortest path between them. The transport model developed was validated for the base year by comparing the observed traffic volumes from the counts and the model estimated volumes and iteratively modifying the model until there was good comparison.

4.1.4 Considerations in Traffic Forecast In order to assess the road development options and take up the high priority sections for development in the short to medium term, a traffic forecast for the year 2015 was made based on a number of considerations. The completion of Regional Highways in the near future and other high priority roads in the analysis period will

29


substantially improve the mobility offered by the network. This is expected to substantially increase the per capita trip rates. In addition to this, urbanization and real per capita income growth will increase the per capita trip rates. Other major considerations in trip modelling were the major irrigation development, mining and industrial development in new areas as well as transit traffic with the development of transit corridors. Discussions with the Ministry of Mines and Industries indicated three major areas where large scale mining and industrial development is expected in the short to medium term. They are Aynak copper mines in Logar province, Dara-i-suf coal mines in Samangan Province and Iron ore deposit in Bamyan province. Power generation and cement production in Dara-i-suf are considered the major new industrial developments. Trip generations specifically related to these developments have been considered in the trip modelling. The Government has set a target growth rate of 9% per annum over the 2005-2015 period. The economic growth rates projected by IMF and ADB hover around 10 % for the period 2005-20074. Economic growth outlook under a moderate economic growth scenario suggest an annual growth rate of 7.5 % (2005-2010) and 6.3% (2010-2015)5. The estimated growth rate for 2004 is about 7.5%, substantially lower than the previous 2 years (28.6 % and 15.7%). The reduction in 2004 is attributed to the drought which reduced the cereal production by 25%. It is expected that the growth rate will return to the 9-10 % range for the 2005-2007 period. For the present analysis, an economic growth rate under the moderate economic growth scenario is assumed. The development of the major road network will remove one of the bottlenecks in regional trade development as well as encourage transit trade through Afghanistan. The Government and the Donor agencies are working towards facilitating transit trade flows. Various assessments carried out on the potential for transit trade flows indicate that the transit routes through Afghanistan provide a major competitive import/export route to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The total quantity of imports and exports from these countries is estimated to be of the order of 6 million tonnes in the case of Uzbekistan (based on the total value of imports and exports and the average value per tonne) and 1 to 1.4 million tonnes in the case of Tajikistan. There are many factors that could influence the choice of trade routes as brought out by various reports prepared for fostering trade and regional cooperation. Considering the most optimistic scenario, upto 50% of the trade flows in and out of these countries could move to the transit routes through Afghanistan. These have been considered in the traffic estimates for 2015.

4.2 Base Year Trip Modelling Two models were developed – one for the estimation of passenger trips and the second for the estimation of goods trips. The household survey data were used to estimate average per capita passenger trip rates to the (i) district head quarters and market (short and more frequent trips), (ii) provincial headquarters (less frequent trips) and, (iii) out of province trips (least frequent). The average trip rates per person per day observed are 0.040, 0,015 and 0.0070 to district headquarters, provincial headquarters and out of the province respectively. The average total trip rate per person per day observed is 0.062. 4 Asian Development Outlook 2005, ADB and Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program and Request for an Extension, IMF, April 2005 5 Post Conflict Reconstruction: the Afghan Economy Report, Asian Development Bank Institute, 2004

30


Using these trip rates and population, trip generations from traffic zones (consisting of one or more districts) were estimated and, using the transport model, trips were distributed and assigned on the base year network. The assigned trips were then compared with observed number of trips (from traffic counts) on the road network. The trip rates of traffic zones were then modified iteratively to calibrate the model to observed trips on the network. The trip rates thus obtained was then studied in relation to the socio-economic features and transport linkages of the traffic zones through regression analysis and found the variables that affect the trip rates most. In the case of passenger trips, factors that influenced trip rates include the level of mobility, percent of urban population and agricultural land availability. The trip rate equation developed is given below: Passenger trip rate = 0.0564 +0.0000212 (Agricultural production per thousand

population) + 0.0860 (Percent Urban population in the zone) – 0.004628 (Mobility Index6)

R2 = 0.65 This equation was used to estimate the passenger trip generations from all traffic zones and was divided into the three trip types based on observed ratio of these trips from the household survey. The estimated total per capita trip rates in the base year ranged from 0.013 to 0.10. In the case of goods trip generation, trip generations were estimated based on food surplus/deficit, per capita consumption of goods (value of per capita consumption from National Risk and Vulnerability Survey converted to quantity), imports and exports, industrial production etc. The Consultant has used such an approach in Ethiopia successfully. However, the trip generation model could not be validated reasonably against observed trip pattern. Hence, an approach that relates observed passenger trips and goods trips (in tonnes) was used in the present analysis. This approach gave an acceptable statistical relationship and has been used in the estimation of goods trips. In the case of export and import traffic on links leading to neighbouring countries, trip generations were separately estimated based on the observed traffic (The export-import tonnage reported in CSO statistics are well below the tonnage calculated from observed vehicular traffic on the external links). The goods trip generation equation for different categories of links in the network as developed is given below: Goods Trips (Tonnage) on = 2361.23 + 0.4655 *Passenger trips on the link Regional Highways (R2 = 0.66) Goods Trips (Tonnage) on = 436.012 + 0.2847 *Passenger trips on the link National Highways/ (R2 = 0.723) Provincial Roads The person and goods trips thus modelled were converted to vehicle trips on the network using average occupancy factors and average tonnage by vehicle classes for different categories of links. The base year (2005) Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) thus estimated is presented in Figure 4.1 and is given in Appendix 4. The base year traffic estimate compares well with observed volumes on most of the roads in better condition but may be significantly different (observed being much lower than what is predicted) on roads in very poor condition or where continuous travel is not 6 As defined in Section 2.6.2

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feasible due to road condition. The trip generation estimates are based on trip rates observed in motor accessible areas. Areas which are not accessible are likely to have a much lower trip rate and this have been to certain extent taken into account in the modelling but if the road is not continuously motorable to access a Provincial or Regional center, no or very little traffic is likely on those sections (well below the trip rates considered). Also the mode of travel may be non-motorized modes along tracks and therefore cannot be observed on the road alignment. Therefore, the traffic estimates given in Figure 4.1 should be looked at with this understanding. The traffic volumes represent the likely traffic if an accessible road (even in very poor condition) was available. The modelled traffic given above does not include motorcycles and slow moving vehicles as well as urban traffic on urban sections of the road network. Validation of the model predicted traffic volumes to observed traffic volumes (on links where traffic volume counts are available) indicate that the difference in vehicle kilometre predicted by the model and that is observed is 9%.

4.3 Traffic Modelling for 2015 The passenger trip modelling has taken into consideration following factors:

• Population growth – natural growth and migration to economically potential areas when access is improved (Average natural growth assumed at 1.9 % per annum for the 10 year period (2005-15) and an increase in urban population share from 24.2 % in 2005 to 30.1 % in 2015)7. A higher than average growth rate was assumed in zones with high per capita agricultural land and a lower than average growth rate was assumed in zones with low per capita agricultural land.

• Trip rate growth – The per capita trip rates estimated for the base year is quite

low. It is expected that per capita trip rate will increase with increase in personal income and accessibility/mobility. In addition to this, major irrigation developments have also been considered to add irrigated agricultural land. The trip rate equation was used to estimate the increase in trip rate due to increase in mobility and change in urban population share as well as increase in per capita agricultural land. The trip rate was also increased to account for the increase in per capita income (at the rate of 5% per annum).

The 2015 total trip rates thus estimated range between 0.075 to 0.163 trips per person per year. The passenger trip generations at traffic zone level was estimated based on the above assumptions. The goods trip generation related to population and economic activity in the traffic zone was estimated using the relationship established for the base year. Trips generated by major mining/industrial developments and transit traffic were added on to the above trip generations and assigned on to the network using the transport model to estimate the traffic levels on the selected road network. The year 2015 Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) thus estimated is summarised in Table 4.1and presented in Figure 4.2 as well as given in Appendix 4. The traffic modelling indicate that currently 25% of Regional Highways carry less than 1000 vehicles a day and 70% carry 1000 to 5000 vehicles a day and only about

7 Securing Afghanistan’s Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward, 2004

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33

5 % carry more than 5000 vehicles a day. By 2015, 25% of Regional Highways will carry more than 8000 vehicles a day and 52% carry 3000 to 8000 vehicles a day. This indicate that up to 25% of the Regional highways may require capacity augmentation by 2015 and another 50% will require capacity augmentation in the 10 year period after 2015 to provide a good level of service on the Regional Highways and therefore substantial resources need to be allocated for capacity expansion of regional highways in the next 20 years. In the case of National Highways, traffic levels on only about 5% of National Highways will be above 5000 vehicles a day by 2015. The North-South corridors through Bamyan is projected to carry a traffic level in the range of 1000 to 2500 vehicles per day in 2015 and the western corridor through Chaghcharan is projected to carry a traffic level in the range of 700 to 1500 vehicles per day in 2015. The major contributor to the traffic on the North-South corridor through Bamyan will be the anticipated development in Dari-i-suf coal mines and the Bamyan iron ore mine. The through transit traffic will mainly use Regional Highways and the North-South corridor through Chaghcharan. In the case of Provincial Roads, 75% of the road length will carry less than 1000 vehicles per day and the rest below 5000 vehicles per day by 2015. The traffic forecast is based on the moderate growth scenario and the assumptions on the development of major mining and industries in Dara-i-suf, Bamyan and Aynak as well as realizing the potential for regional trade and transit flows. Also, improvement of the whole road network to at least motorable levels is essential to realize the forecast traffic. If a section of road lengths continue to be in the present state, the traffic generation from those areas will be below what is projected which may affect traffic on the major road network also.

Table 4.1 Traffic Forecast Summary Road Length Distribution (Km)

Regional Highways

National Highways Provincial Roads

Traffic Ranges (AADT)

2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 < 100 0 0 387 0 0 0

100-250 4 0 766 0 3064 756

250-500 465 41 1217 50 3656 2735

500-1000 359 196 1276 938 2222 3676

1000-2000 718 75 885 1350 481 1698

2000-3000 583 446 29 708 71 483

3000-5000 897 771 14 1291 0 146

5000-8000 208 896 48 238 0 0

8000-13000 0 613 0 47 0 0

>13000 0 196 0 0 0 0

Total# 3234 3234 4622 4622 9494 9494

# - Transport model QRS II uses road section lengths measured from digitized maps which results in a small difference from MPW inventory lengths.

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5. Road Development Requirements and Costs

5.1 Introduction The field surveys described in Chapter 3 show that most of the road network is in poor to bad condition and the principal needs are: • Roads need to be restored to an adequate design standard • Sub-standard roads need to be improved • Gravel roads carrying high volumes of traffic need to be upgraded to bituminous

pavement • Earth tracks need to be properly engineered and constructed with adequate

pavement and drainage • Even roads in fair to good condition may not be passable at rivers or due to

washouts and landslides • Bridges and culverts near to collapse need to be repaired or replaced. The traffic forecasts described in Chapter 4 demonstrate that road traffic growth created by population and economic growth requires that many roads also need to be improved by widening and sealing to provide a reasonable level of service for road users. In preparing the master plan and estimating the expenditure requirements over the 2006-2015 period, the following development and maintenance options were considered for each road: 1. Rehabilitate or reconstruct all roads to their original standard or to a minimum

engineering standard. Works include formation and pavement reconstruction and possible widening, cross- and side-drainage and repair/replacement of bridges.

2. Improve roads to a higher design standard as required by the traffic forecast. Improvements include realignment, widening, bituminous surfacing, causeways or bridges etc.

3. Construct new roads to support new economic activities, to short travel distances between regions, to provide access to remote areas, and to link provincial centres with new district centres.

4. Carry out special works to reopen many roads which will not be reconstructed or improved in the immediate future due to budget and programme constraints. Works include repair of landslides, washouts and severe pavement failures and construction of fords and causeways.

5. Provide routine and periodic maintenance after roads have been reconstructed or improved.

This Chapter describes the road standards used in the master plan and the development of unit construction and maintenance costs. This information is used to identify the design standard selected for each road, to carry out the economic analysis, and to prepare the expenditure forecast described in later Chapters.

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5.2 Road Design Standards The MPW has adopted interim road design standards containing five technical classes as summarized below. Much cooperative effort has gone into the development of these standards and no changes in the five design classes are proposed. However, there is a need for a single-lane road design for low-volume roads because the majority of Rural Roads and Provincial Roads are likely to carry volumes less than <400 ADT which cannot justify a 6.0m two-lane carriageway. The master plan is recommending an additional road class based on the AASHTO design guidelines for low-volume roads8 which specify a gravel roadway width (carriageway plus shoulders) of 6.0m for design speeds up to about 60 km/h depending on type of traffic.

Table 5.1 Road Cross-Section Standards Design Class ROW and Roadway Carriageway Shoulders

Expressway Type II >30,000 ADT

ROW 100m roadway 33m (w 9m median)

dual carriageway (2x7m) separated by median

outside 3m: 2.5m paved, 0.5m gravel inside 2m: 1.5m paved, 0.5m gravel

Expressway Type I 13,000-30,000 ADT

ROW 50m roadway 24m

dual carriageway (2x7m)

outside 3m: 1.5m paved, 1.5m gravel inside 2m paved

Major Road 5,000-13,000 ADT

ROW 30m (rural), 19m (urban) roadway 13m

two lanes (2x3.5m) 3m: 1.5m paved, 1.5m gravel (rural) 3m: paved (urban)

Minor Road <5000 ADT

ROW 30m (rural), 18m (urban) roadway 9m

two lanes (2x3.0m) 1.5m gravel (rural) 2.5m gravel or paved (urban)

Non-standard Road

no engineering standard required

Additional Class: Low-Volume Road <400 ADT

same design speeds as Minor Road single lane 6m gravel roadway (carriageway and shoulders)

5.3 Road Development Options In each road class a number of road development options are possible during the 2006-2015 master plan period which are summarized in Table 5.2. The Interim Road Standard and Highway Standards technical definitions are used the addition of a Low-Volume Road gravel road with a 6m roadway width is used for roads with less than 400 ADT. Provincial Roads The development options proposed for Provincial Roads are: • Rehabilitation or reconstruction of every road to provide a Low-Volume Road

standard • Reconstruction and improvement as needed to provide a Minor Road standard

with a gravel surface

8 AASHTO, Guidelines for Geometric Design of Very Low-Volume Local Roads (ADT<400), 2001

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• Reconstruction and improvement as needed to provide a Minor Road standard

with a DBST9 surface • Construction of a new road to provide a Low-Volume Standard • Construction of a new road to provide a Minor Road Standard with either a gravel

or DBST surface The choice of option will depend on traffic, terrain, construction costs and the particular needs of the districts served by the road. The traffic forecasts show that Provincial Roads will not carry sufficient traffic to require improvement to Major Road standard, except possibly short sections in urban areas.

Table 5.2 Road Development Options and Unit Costs, 2005 Prices

Road Standard Provincial Road National Highway

Regional Highway New Road (7)

Low-Volume Road <400 AADT

Rehabilitation to Low- Volume Road (6m gravel) $30,000/km (1)

NA NA

Construction of new Low Volume Road (6m gravel)$90,000/km

Reconstruction and improvement to Minor Road (9m gravel) $60,000/km (2)

Reconstruction and improvement to Minor Road (9m gravel) $75,000/km (3)

NA

Construction of new Minor Road (gravel) $150,000/km

Minor Road 400-5000 AADT

Reconstruction and improvement to Minor Road (DBST) $125,000/km (4)

Reconstruction and improvement to Minor Road (DBST) $125,000/km (4)

NA

Construction of new Minor Road (DBST) $180,000/km

Major Road 5000-13,000 AADT NA

Reconstruction and improvement to Major Road (AC) $250,000/km (5)

Reconstruction and and improvement to Major Road (AC) $440,000/km (6)

Construction of new Major Road (AC) $600,000/km

Expressway I 13,000-30,000 AADT NA NA

Widening to 4L $600,000/km (7)

Construction of new Expressway I 4L

Expressway II >30,000 AADT

NA NA

Widen to 6L Construction of new Expressway II 6L

Notes 1. Consistent with average NEEPRA project costs for rehabilitation of some provincial and rural gravel roads 2. Consistent with average NEEPRA project costs and World Bank ROCKS data for provincial gravel roads 3. Higher cost allowed for National Highways which may be improved to Major Road standard in future

9 Double Bituminous Surface Treatment.

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4. Average of donor project costs for rehabilitation and upgrading of provincial roads 5. Average of donor project costs for reconstruction and improvement of national highway 6. Average of donor project costs for reconstruction and improvement of regional highway excluding some exception cases 7. Consultant's estimates based on World Bank ROCKS data and other road feasibility and design studies.

National Highways The development options proposed for National Highways are: • Reconstruction and improvement as needed to provide a Minor Road standard

with a DBST surface • Reconstruction and improvement as needed to provide a Major Road standard • Construction of a new road to provide a Minor Road standard • Construction of a new road to provide a Major Road standard Again, the choice of option will depend upon the traffic, terrain and construction cost. Many National Highways will not carry sufficient traffic to justify constructing more than a Minor Road standard in the foreseeable future. Similarly, no National Highways are expected to require improvement to Expressway standard, except for short sections in some urban areas.

Regional Highways All Regional Highways are already being reconstructed or rehabilitated to at least a Major Road standard. Existing 4-lane sections are being reconstructed to an Expressway I standard. During the master plan period, some additional heavily trafficked sections on Regional Highways will require widening to four lanes, and possibly six lanes in urban areas. The traffic forecasts show that by 2015 approximately 300 km carry more than 13,000 ADT thereby requiring widening to Expressway I 4-lane standard. None will have sufficient traffic for Expressway II standard. However, the majority of these RH sections have <13,000 ADT in 2010 and only exceed this threshold in the last few years in the master plan period. Safety and Traffic Management Improvements At present, priority is being given to restoring existing road pavements and bridges to reduce travel time and vehicle operating cost. This is not to say that other improvements are not required. Various measures to improve road safety and traffic management will be required on all regional highways for a start, and later on national highways. These include road furniture, signage, lighting and traffic intersection controls, Such measures are too detailed to be considered in the road master plan; however, a provision should be made for such improvements in future years’ budgets.

5.4 Construction Cost Estimates The estimated unit construction costs for rehabilitation, or reconstruction or new construction for each design standard and road class are shown in Table 5.2. They represent the average cost of implementation and contain an allowance for engineering, de-mining, environmental mitigation, resettlement, construction supervision and project management. They are based on an analysis of current

39 39


donor projects in Afghanistan plus representative construction costs reported in the World Bank ROCKS10 database. Costs estimates from different sources were adjusted to make them as comparable as possible by adding 20% to the engineer’s estimate or contract costs to cover engineering, land acquisition, resettlement, construction supervision and project management. Unit costs represent 2005 prices.

5.5 Road Maintenance Needs Road maintenance is divided into four categories: • Routine maintenance • Periodic maintenance • Special works • Winter maintenance Routine and Periodic Maintenance Routine and periodic maintenance activities are well defined in other documents and are not repeated here. The proposed strategy for routine and periodic maintenance is to focus on those roads which are to be reconstructed or improved, or which are in fair-good condition where maintenance effort would not be wasted. The maintenance requirements of other roads will be addressed by special works described below. The proposed actions are: • Provide routine maintenance on roads only after completion of reconstruction or

rehabilitation • Provide routine maintenance on roads in relatively good condition which will not

be rehabilitated or improved until late in the master plan period • Provide routine maintenance on roads which have been re-opened following

special works as described below • Do not provide routine maintenance on roads which are scheduled for

reconstruction • Provide periodic maintenance on reconstructed/rehabilitated roads as required

(assumed to begin approximately six years after completion). Special Works The field surveys show that, although the great majority of National Highways and Provincial Roads are in poor or bad condition, most roads are motorable by 4WD vehicle and small or medium buses and trucks over the greater part of their length. But often they are blocked by water courses, landslides or badly failed pavement sections. These roads could be re-opened over their full length by initiating a program of spot repairs11 in advance of full reconstruction. Typical works required include: • Repair of landslides or landslips • Temporary repair/replacement of dangerous bridges • Construction of fords or causeways at river/stream crossings

10 Road Cost Knowledge System, Transport and Urban Development Department, World Bank, June 2002 11 Repairs of this nature are often referred to as emergency maintenance usually in response to extreme weather events. In Afghanistan’s case the defects are more a result of prolonged neglect.

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• Temporary restoration of badly failed pavement sections • Drainage repairs There are more than 4900 km of National Highways and 9600 km of Provincial Roads and none of the projected road development program options will be able to reconstruct or improve all within 10 years. Therefore this option is extremely important for restoring a minimum level of mobility across the road network. We recommend MPW establish a special works program to address the needs of all National Highways and Provincial Roads which will not be selected for reconstruction until after 2010. A tentative estimate is that this will include approximately 2500 km of National Highway and 7500 km of Provincial Roads which will not be rehabilitated or reconstructed until after 2010. The program will gradually be reduced as (1) special works are completed and (2) roads are taken up for rehabilitation/reconstruction. The program would be funded from the recurrent budget. Winter Maintenance Afghanistan was faced with an exceptionally severe winter in 2005 which isolated many communities for weeks on end and showed the importance of winter maintenance. The Salang Pass was kept clear for all but a few days with funding assistance from the World Bank. MPW has drawn up a list of winter maintenance priorities as shown in Table 5.3 Category I roads require a high level of service because of their strategic importance in the road network. Category II roads have less priority and are not shown individually. In addition, there are other sections of National Highway and many Provincial Roads which require snow clearing as well.

Table 5.3 MPW Winter Maintenance Priorities

Source: UNOPS

Winter maintenance requirements for other roads have not been identified.

The overall maintenance requirements are summarized in Table 5.4.

No. Name of Pass LocationLength,

kmCategory IRH01 Arghandi Kabul - Maidan 18RH01 Dasht-e-Tope Maidan - Sayeed Abad 20RH01 Dasht-e-Shash Gaw Sayeed Abad - Ghazni 50RH02 Qara Bagh Ghazni - Zabul 20

Zard Kotal Hirat - Senden 50Koske Kohna Hirat - Toor Ghoondi 45

NH06 Ghook wa Bayan Hirat - Chagcharan 320RH03 Sabzak Hirat - Qala i Now 55RH04 Salang Jabalussaraj - Doshi 108RH04 Robatak Samangan - Mazar e Sharif 12NH43 Khwaja Mohd Keshim - Faizabad 100RH05 Mahi Per Kabul - Surobi 45NH08 Tera Logar - Gardez 60NH08 Sata Kanda Gardez - Khost 20

Other length of road Kabul and Logar 1001023

Category II 972Total 1995

41 41


Table 5.4 Road Development and Maintenance Strategy

Road Class

Road Development

Road Maintenance Requirements

Urgent Repairs

Routine maintenance for 3227 km as construction works are completed and handed over to MPW

Periodic maintenance beginning 2010 (assume 6 years after works are completed)

Regional Highways

3227 km network will be completed under current donor programme by 2008. Some highly trafficked sections will require widening after 2008 and provision is made for 150 km for widening to 4 lanes.

Winter maintenance at Category I level of service

None required



National Highways

<1000 km of 4906 km network are included in current donor programs. Assume that all remaining NHs will be developed by 2015 = avg. 450 km/yr

Winter maintenance at Category II level of service

Special works on NHs which will not be improved until after 2010



Provincial Roads

Approximately 1000km of 9656 km PR network are included in current donor programs Assume 50% of PRs will be developed by 2015 = avg. 450 km/yr Approximately 1000 km of existing Rural Road are being reclassified as PRs and included in the master plan and construction program

Winter maintenance at a lower level of service

Special works on PRs which will not be improved until after 2010

Rural Roads

Many rural roads being improved under various programs Development costs are excluded in the master plan

Routine and periodic maintenance will be required but costs are excluded in the master plan

Special works repairs are needed but costs are excluded in the master plan

5.6 Road Maintenance Costs Average maintenance unit costs are shown in Table 5.5.

Table 5.5 Maintenance Unit Cost Estimates, $/km/yr

Road Class Routine

MaintenancePeriodic

Maintenance

Total Routine and Periodic Maintenance

Provision for Special Works

Regional Highway (paved) 3,000 5,500 8,500 NA National Highway (paved) 2,500 2,800 5,300 5,000 Provincial Road (gravel) 1,000 2,000 3,000 2,000

42 42


Routine Maintenance Costs Routine maintenance costs for the master plan were estimated using World Bank12 and the Consultant’s sources13 in several countries. A reasonable level of service was assumed especially for gravel and earth roads which are subject to rapid deterioration. The cost estimates are direct costs, excluding MPW management and overheads, i.e. the cost of contracting routine maintenance. The resulting costs are similar to those estimated by the Transport Sector Review and contained in CG-TS Working Group 3’s presentation on Cost Recovery, 18 May 2005. Periodic Maintenance Costs Periodic maintenance costs were estimated using data from the World Bank ROCKS database (footnote 3) updated to 2005 princes and Paved Road Maintenance Needs (footnote 4). Regional Highways and other high volume paved roads are assumed to receive an overlay at eight-year intervals ($44,000/km avg). National Highways and paved sections of Provincial Roads receive a single bituminous surface treatment ($22,000/km) and Provincial Roads or gravel roads receive a regravelling ($17,000/km). Special Works Costs There are no guidelines for estimating an average unit cost for such works. Most of the works will involve minor bridges and drainage which the ROCKS database shows to be about 5% of total construction costs. Relating this to the average reconstruction costs for gravel Low-Volume and Minor Roads suggests average unit costs of $5,000/km and $2000/km for National Highways and Provincial Roads respectively. Winter Maintenance Costs Cost estimates for meeting this and other requirements on the remainder of the road network are not readily available. Canadian experience shows that snow clearing costs range from $250 to 1000/km/yr (US$) depending on the level of service provided. Main highways and arterial roads receive continuous snow clearance while secondary roads wait their turn and are cleared less frequently. There are additional costs for snow removal, ice control, abrasives, snow fencing etc. to be considered as well. Canadian winter maintenance requirements are among the highest in the world and unit costs are minimised through contracting and achieving economies of scale which may not be possible in Afghanistan. An order-of-magnitude estimate of $1000/km/yr would be reasonable for a high level of service, giving an annual budget requirement of approximately $2 million for snow clearance on Category I and II highways.

12 Paved and Unpaved Road Maintenance Needs Version 3.0, World Bank, Transportation, Water and Urban Development Department, April 1999 13 Routine Maintenance Management System, Transportation Research and Development Inc., Austin, Texas, United States

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6. Economic Analysis

6.1 Economic Analysis of Road Network Development Options Economic analysis methodology is determined by the magnitude of impacts that project road improvements will have on the transport conditions as compared with the present situation. The network development options include improvement and upgrading of existing roads as well as construction of new roads. The main impact of improvement and upgrading of an existing road is in reducing transport costs and improving mobility by reducing travel times. These road projects will have additional impacts and contribute to economic growth in general, but these would be difficult to quantify. The most appropriate tool for the economic evaluation in such cases is the Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) model. The construction of new links, on the other hand, may radically change the whole way of life of communities the road serves, not only in terms of economic activity, but also the social welfare of the population. The evaluation can only to a limited degree be based on transport cost savings. The economic impacts are much wider and may result in significant increases in local value added. In order to identify appropriate development options, about 15 typical road sections representing the Regional, National and Provincial Highways were analysed in detail using the HDM-4 model. The selected road sections covered the range of traffic and existing road conditions of these roads. The options considered for improvement are described in Section 5.3. Vehicle operating cost data required for the model has been generated from Consultant’s enquiries in Kabul as well as a review of recent feasibility studies. Regional differences in prices have not been considered as the main objective of the present analysis is to generate a work programme for roads spread across the country. Default parameters were used in the case of road deterioration modelling in general with a few modifications based on the Consultant’s experience in similar conditions. In the case of gravel/earth roads, roughness progression was controlled through calibration factors limiting the maximum roughness levels to 16 in order to prevent the model estimating very high roughness values in the base case. The limiting of maximum roughness values was therefore used. Other modifications in the deterioration model involved an accelerated cracking and roughness progression. Based on the analysis of typical road sections, following improvement options have been identified:

Improvement Option Base Year AADT

Projected 2015 AADT14

Geometric Standard 15 Surfacing

< 200 <500 Low Volume Road Gravel

200 - 400 500 – 1000 Minor Road Gravel

400 - 2000 1000 – 5000 Minor Road Paved (Surface Dressing)

2000 - 6000 5000 - 13000 Major Road Asphalt Concrete

> 6000 >12000 Expressway16 Asphalt Concrete

14 Excluding Motorcycles and slow moving vehicles 15 See Table 5.1 in Section 5.2 16 Capacity augmentation when AADT exceeds 12000 vehicles per day.

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The chart below gives indicative Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for various development options and traffic levels for roads that require reconstruction. The AADT shown is the base year traffic. Average construction costs given in Section 5 have been used except in the case of Minor paved road at higher traffic levels in order to better reflect the cost implications on the decision on the improvement options. In the case of gravel versus paved option, at higher traffic levels, the frequency of maintenance operation becomes higher in the case of gravel roads and therefore paving is recommended beyond 400 AADT in the base year. The option of widening high volume roads to 4 lanes at AADT levels of over 8000 has given an internal rate of return of about 21 percent. However considering the resource constraints for road development, widening to 4 lanes may be considered when the traffic volume exceeds 12000 vehicles per day.

Traffic Levels and Improvement Options

-100

10203040

5060708090

100

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750

AADT

IRR

(%)

Low Volume Gravel Minor Paved Minor Gravel Major Paved

For the programming of road works, improvement options based on 2015 forecast traffic levels have been taken as current traffic levels on most roads are well below the potential traffic levels when mobility is improved. All road sections included in the road network is subjected to economic analysis with the estimated traffic levels and average construction costs. This will give the indicative rate of return for each project. The construction costs can vary substantially depending on the terrain and other features and in order to confirm individual links economic viability, separate economic analysis for each link with associated construction costs need to be carried out.

6.2 An Assessment of North-South Corridors The main road network of Afghanistan at present comprises the Regional Highways (Ring Road and the links to the neighbouring countries) and several National Highways. The major part of the central region of Afghanistan is not served by a good road that can be used for inter-regional transport. This greatly affects the economic development of this region. Also the absence of good road connections through the central area of the country necessitates a circuitous route to be taken by traffic between various regions.

45 45


The road development program developed to date suggests development of two North-South Corridors and one East-West Corridor to serve the central region, facilitate direct/shorter travel between various regions and transit traffic in the north-south direction. A feasibility study for sections of East-West corridor is underway with SIDA assistance. The forecast traffic levels on the East-West corridor are in the range of 3000 – 5000 vehicles per day by 2015 and indicate the traffic potential of this corridor. The TOR of the master plan study rightly point out that a main geographical focus of the study will be the central mountain region and other areas currently underserved by the national road network. In this context, the North-South corridors planned are important. A preliminary assessment of the proposed North-South corridors has been made in the First Interim Report of the Master Plan study. Further, the feasibility study component of the Master Plan study has take eastern North-South corridor between Bamyan and Mazar-i-Sherif for detailed study. The interim report of that feasibility study has been recently submitted. Conclusions from these analyses are summarized below:

Development of North-South corridors has to be considered within the overall resource needs of the road development program. The development of each of the two North-South corridors will require an investment of over US$ 300 million. The North-South corridors provide substantial economic savings to through traffic as well as help in boosting the economic development of the central region. Also large portions of the North-South corridor in all alignment options overlap with the central region provinces’ road requirements which are essential to provide accessibility to the population. As this latter investment is needed as a minimum requirement the incremental investment to develop the North–South corridor to facilitate export-import as well as transit traffic appears to be well justified.

The feasibility study of Mazar-i-Sherif to Bamyan section conclude that there is good potential for developing the project corridor but the economic viability of the central section between Dara I Suf and Bamyan/Yakawlang is highly dependant on the planned development and exploitation of the natural resources in the area, their distribution and the related development in the central region. The section between Mazar-i-Sherif and Dara I Suf is justifiable independent of those developments and should be taken up on priority and the section between Dara I Suf and Bamyan may be taken up in the medium to long term. Further, to accelerate the development and exploitation of natural resources in the Dara I Suf area, it is important to construct the Dara I Suf – Aybak road on a priority basis.

The analyses also conclude that the East-West corridor sections need to be taken up in the short to medium term.

The completion of Ring Road will give fairly competitive routes for export-import and transit traffic. The North-South and East-West corridors will give additional savings to this traffic depending on the combination of entry-exit points but their development is not a must for the transit traffic and trade development. Therefore, considering the large investment needed in the road sector as well as the resource constraint, road development needs to meet Afghanistan’s overall development objectives should be given higher priority in the short to medium term.

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7. Road Development Priorities

7.1 Link Evaluation Each of the links in the identified road network was evaluated using a multi-criteria analysis. The objective of the proposed road development program for the regional, national and provincial road network is to provide good road access to the district level and remove transport as a constraint to development. Further development of district/rural roads will provide access to the entire population. The main functions of the regional, national and provincial road network will include: • Inter-regional connectivity/export and import facilitation • Transit trade facilitation • Network connectivity and mobility • Linking administrative centres/ industrial and mining centres/ major towns • Facilitate development of areas with high potential

Agricultural and pastoral development Mining and industry Tourism

The objective of the link evaluation is to measure how each link assists in serving the above functions. Each link may be rated against each of the above functions and be given a score against the rating depending on how each link fulfils the function. The weighted sum of the scores effectively indicates the importance of each link in the overall development and road accessibility and can be used for prioritization along with economic indicators in drawing up the investment program. Prioritization of the road links by an un-biased approach basing on certain criteria is a challenge by itself. The importance of a link in a network is directly or indirectly related to the links to which it is connected in the network. Hence, in the process of prioritizing the road links it is very essential to consider the connectivity the link offers within the set of links being prioritized. Most often the links in the road network at the regional level cater to multiple purposes thereby making the functionality of any link in the network multi-faceted. Population living along the link, number of district headquarters or market centres connected, presence of major industries and natural resources, health and other social infrastructure, connectivity the link offers at provincial, regional and national levels, traffic on the link, importance of the link in serving an import/export corridor etc are few of the parameters that could be considered in the prioritization. In the process of prioritization, these parameters could be rated based on a subjective or objective quantification of the parameter values and a ‘Link Evaluation Score’ could be derived for each link in the network. The higher the ‘Link Evaluation Score’, the higher is the priority of the link in the network. Regional Highways are well established high priority roads providing inter regional connectivity and facilitating import/export and transit trade. These roads have been already selected for improvement and hence the regional highway network was excluded from the process of prioritization. The high priority given to the Regional Highways is established already and therefore the objective of the proposed road development program for the remaining national and provincial road network is to provide good road access down to the district level.

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Based on an evaluation of all factors that could be considered and the feedback obtained from the First Workshop, the following factors were considered for deriving Link Evaluation Scores:

• Population density along the road corridor • Agricultural potential • Mining and industrial development potential • Tourism – Connectivity of the link to potential tourism areas • Improvement in network connectivity and mobility • Traffic potential All the links excluding the Regional Highways in the identified road network were evaluated using the multi-criteria analysis. Link Evaluation Score (Ls) used for evaluation comprises of Population Score (Ps), Agriculture Score (As), Connectivity Score (Cs), Development Potential Score (Ds) and Traffic Potential Score (Ts). Ls = f( Ps , As , Cs , Ds , Ts ) Population Score – This score is derived based on the population density of zones connected by the link. This score is a measure of the population being served by a particular link. If a link is fully within a traffic zone, then population density of that zone is taken as the measure. When a link is located in more than one traffic zones, weighted (by the proportion of link length in each traffic zone) population density of the traffic zones involved is taken. This weighted population density was given a score on a scale of 0 to 100 to arrive at the Population score (Ps) for the link. Agriculture Score – Amount of irrigated area in hectares per thousand population along the link was taken as a measure of agricultural development potential along the link. Irrigated area per thousand population along the link was calculated with weightage given to the length of the link in each of the zones it passes through. The amount of irrigated area in hectares per thousand population was given a score on a scale of 0 to 100 to arrive at Agriculture Score (As) for the link. Links providing access to the hinder lands of major Irrigiation Projects would get higher score. For e.g: Major Irrigation project like Kokcha Irrigation Project catering to irrigation to over 90000 hectares in districts of Khwaja Ghar, Archi, Imamsahib etc would yield a high Agriculture Score for the links in the those districts. Links where no major irrigation schemes are planned or irrigated land availability is low will get low Agriculture score (e.g. link connecting Pulialam and Baraki Barak in Logar province). Details of planned irrigation projects were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Energy. Data on existing irrigated land at district level was obtained from ‘ Provincial Land Cover Atlas of Islamic State of Afghanistan’ by FAO, March 1999. This information was incorporated in to the spreadsheet for working out the Agriculture Score for each link. Connectivity Score – The number of district headquarters, market centers, administrative centers, tourist centers and social infrastructure served by the link was used as a measure for connectivity the link offers. The number of such centers was given a score on a scale of 0 to 100 and score was called as the Connectivity Score (Cs) for the link. For e.g: Connectivity Score for Dishu – Khanishin link which only connects the District Headquarters / Market Center to the main road gets a lower connectivity score compared to the Asadabad – Asmer link which connects several district centers to the National and Regional Highways.

48 48


Development Potential Score – The presence of major industries and the existence of large/medium deposits of mineral wealth were used as a measure of potential for the development of mining and industries along the link. In addition, links which offer reduction in the distance for the through traffic, provide a regional linkage would also assist in development and hence were given a score on a scale of 0 to 100 called the Development Potential Score (Ds). For e.g: links connecting large deposits of coal in Dara I Suf, large quantities of Copper deposits at Aynak, will have higher score which generate high traffic on the links when compared to links to gold deposits in Taluqan province which will generate lower additional traffic on the links. Traffic Potential Score – In the current situation as most links in the network are in bad condition, there is always a component of traffic which is suppressed. Hence, a traffic forecast for the year 2015 was carried out using the transport model considering all the roads to be in good condition and motorable for the entire length. This gives equal opportunity for any link in the network being used for a making trip between any two given points and hence becomes a measure for the traffic potential of any link. The higher the traffic potential on the link higher is the score for such link. This potential was given a score on a scale of 0 to 100 and is called the Traffic Potential Score (Ts).

7.2 Link Evaluation Scores The range of scoring was arrived at considering equitable distribution of the presence of the links in each range. The scale adopted for each of the above parameters is given below.

Type of Score Range Score Population Score, Ps Weighted Population Density (persons /sq

km) 0 – 25 25 – 50 50 – 75 75 – 100

Above 100

60 70 80 90 100

Agriculture Score, As Weighted Irrigated Area (ha) per thousand persons

0 – 75 75 – 150 150 – 300 300 – 450 Above 450

60 75 85 95 100

Connectivity Score, Cs Number of important traffic generating centres served by the Link

None

1 2 3

More than 3

0 70 80 90 100

Development Potential Score, Ds

Development Feature 0 – No Major Development Potential

1 – Heavy Industry / Large Deposits of Minerals

2 –Medium Industry / Medium Deposits of Minerals

0

100

75

49 49


50 50

3 – Improving inter-provincial linkage / Shortening distance and thereby assisting overall development

50

Traffic Potential Score, Ts Forecast Traffic potential on the Link (number of vehicles)

< 500 500 – 1000 1000 – 1500 1500 – 2500 > 2500

60 70 80 90 100

Each of the above factors was given a weightage to arrive at a single Weighted Link Evaluation Score (WLES) for functional prioritization of the links. A higher weightage for population related factors were given as the primary objective of the prioritization is to benefit maximum population in the short to medium term. The weigtages adoped for different scores is given in the Table below. Score Weightage Population Score 0.30 Agriculture Score 0.20 Connectivity Score 0.10 Development Potential Score 0.10 Traffic Potential Score 0.30 The weighted link evaluation score is calculated as WLES = 0.3 Ps + 0.20 As + 0.10 Cs + 0.10 Ds + 0.30 Ts A spreadsheet was created with quantified data for each parameter associated with each link and link scores were calculated. The calculated WLES for all links is presented in Appendix 4.

7.3 Functional Prioritization Functional prioritization of the road network based on WLES scores was carried out for National Highways and Provincial Roads. The range of WLES were analyzed to identify the range of scores which will distribute the length of roads in 3 levels of priority with about 50 to 60% of the roads in the highest priority, 20 to 30 % in the medium priority and the remaining in the low priority. The results of the analysis is summarised in the table below:

National Highways Provincial Roads Priority Level Length of Road (Km)

Proportion (%)

Length of Road (Km)

Proportion (%)

High 2684 58 4950 52 Medium 1293 28 2379 25 Low 645 14 2165 25 Total 4622 100 9494 100 Pictorial representation of the links with High, Medium and Low priority levels for National Highways and Provincial Roads are given in Figures 7.1 and 7.2 and details are given in Appendix 4.

AD

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51

Figu

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53

7.4 Other Considerations in Preparing Road Investment Program The weighted score given by the above multi-criteria analysis has given the basis for first level prioritization of road links. The next level prioritization of individual road links within each priority level for developing the road investment program for the next 10 years will also consider:

Economic cost-benefit analysis

Will determine the scale of development and prioritization within priority levels for programming over the 10 years.

Fair distribution of road network development investment among provinces

The prioritization of roads based on functional and economic criteria and within the resource availability may result in some of the less economically developed/low potential areas being totally neglected in the investment program. This will be examined based on the finalized programming of works.

Maintenance of constructed/ rehabilitated road sections

Should be given highest priority while operating the investment program

Development considerations

Development in another sector may require programming the works on a road section earlier than the priority generated by the program above.

Road investment programs are to be prepared for 3 to 5 year periods and priority scores can be used to identify the road sections to be included in the program. Then an economic cost-benefit analysis can determine the scope of improvement for each road and prioritize the road improvements within the program period. An analysis of province-wise distribution of priority ranking of road links shown in Figure 7.3 show that all road sections in some of the provinces are ranked as high priority roads whereas in some provinces only a very small percentage of links are ranked as high priority. The funding scenario may allow taking up only say 50% or less of the identified network for development in the next 10 years and if the road links are selected based on the ranking, some of the provinces may not receive any road investment. Road density by area (per 100 sq. km) and population (per 1000 population) are presented in Figures 7.4 and 7.5. Regional and National Highways and Provincial Roads are considered in this analysis. The population considered is 2005 population and do not include population of major cities such as Kabul, Kandahar, Mazr-i-Sherif, Heart and Jaladabad. The dotted line indicate the road density at country level. A comparison of provinces with road density below the country average show that there are only few provinces which are below country average in both measure of road density – Nuristan, Uruzgan and Badakshan. All other provinces has a higher than country average road density in terms of either area or population. The country wide average road density per 1000 population is estimated at 0.56 km per 1000 population if only high priority roads are considered and the same is at 0.74 km per 1000 population if high priority and medium priority roads are considered. It is therefore recommended that the road investment program should ensure that each province is allocated at least a road length of 0.56 km per 1000 population in the next 10 years. Additional funding available can be used for other high and medium priority roads in different provinces according to the priority identified.

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30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Kapisa

Logar

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Takhar

Baghlan

Nangarhar

Hilmand

Kabul

Paktya

Saripul

Samangan

Nimroz

Balkh

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Khost

Faryab

Farah

Ghazni

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Kandahar

Herat

Badghis

Paktika

Bamyan

Badakhshan

Kunar

Zabul

Uruzgan

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Hig

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54

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Kabul

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Kandahar

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Badakhshan

Kunar

Zabul

Urzghan

Nuristan

Fi

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7.4

Pro

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(per

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Leng

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Leng

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Fi

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7.5

Pro

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(per

100

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57

8. Road Development Plan and Expenditure Estimates 2006-2105

8.1 Summary of the Road Development Priorities and Costs Results of the multi-criteria assessment and the associated development costs are summarized in Table 8.1 and in Figures 8.1 – 8.2. Regional Highways Each Regional Highway is shown individually, indicating the lengths which will need to be widened to four lanes based on the traffic forecasts. By 2015, sections of the ring road and RH05 Kabul-Torkham totalling 281 km will need to be widened to four lanes. As would be expected, the sections requiring widening are those nearest the major cities. All Regional Highway requirements are considered to be high priority. The estimated cost of improving the Regional Highways is $169 million (2005 prices). This cost excludes the current programme of completing the rehabilitation/reconstruction of the ring road and other Regional Highways to a two-lane standard. National Highways National Highways are disaggregated by priority (high, medium and low) and five 2015 traffic forecast bands each requiring a different road standard. Each road standard has a different average unit implementation cost (as developed in Chapter 5). Table 8.1 and Figure 8.2 show that the majority of National Highways will only need to be improved to a Minor Road standard (either gravel or DBST) based on the traffic forecasts and HDM4 analysis, i.e. about 4300 km out of 4600 km. This may change when projects are taken up and detailed feasibility studies will determine the final design standard and pavement surface for each project. The total estimated cost of developing the National Highways is $593 million. The results shown in Table 8.1 are from the traffic model, which covers all National Highways and Provincial Roads including those that have been taken up as projects. The additional requirement for the 2006-2015 period is: Length, kmTotal requirement (Table 8.1) 4884Less projects taken up (Table 2.4) 1164Additional requirement 3720 Provincial Roads Provincial Roads are disaggregated in the same way as National Highways. The traffic forecasts and multi-criteria assessment show that a significant length of Provincial Roads will be carrying sufficient traffic levels to justify Minor Road standard (gravel or DBST) i.e about 6400 km. About 3000 km will only justify improvement to a Low-Volume Road standard.

58

AD

B T

A N

o. 4

371-

AFG

Mas

ter P

lan

for R

oad

Net

wor

k Im

prov

emen

t Pro

ject

(Mas

ter P

lan

Com

pone

nt)

Dra

ft Fi

nal R

epor

t, N

ovem

ber 2

005

Regi

onal

Hig

hway

s

Wid

en 4

lane

s>1

3000

AD

T, k

m

No

capa

city

incr

ease

need

ed,

kmTo

tal

km

Tota

l $

mill

ion

RH01

Kab

ul -

Kan

daha

r45

438

483

Avg.

cos

t$2

7RH

02 K

anda

har

- H

irat

055

555

5$6

00K/

km$0

RH03

Hir

at -

Maz

ar e

Sha

rif

075

775

7$0

RH04

Maz

ar e

Sha

rif

- Ka

bul

4836

241

0$2

9RH

05 K

abul

- T

orkh

am18

828

216

$113

RH06

Kan

daha

r -

Spin

Bol

dak

010

410

4$0

RH07

Dila

ram

- Z

aran

j0

217

217

$0RH

08 H

irat

- Is

lam

Qal

a0

120

120

$0RH

09 H

irat

- T

orgh

undi

011

911

9$0

RH10

And

khoy

- A

quin

a0

3737

$0RH

11 N

aiba

bad

- H

ayra

tan

057

57$0

RH12

Pul

i Khu

mri

- S

her

K Ba

ndar

016

716

7$0

Tota

l 28

12,

961

3,24

2$1

69

Hig

h >=

79M

ediu

m 7

3.5-

79Lo

w <

73.5

Tota

lkm

Avg

cost

,$0

00/k

mH

igh

Med

ium

Low

Tota

l$

mill

ion

Maj

or R

oad

5000

-13,

000

AAD

T41

70

041

7$2

50$1

04$0

$0$1

04M

inor

Roa

d D

BST

1000

-500

0 AA

DT

2,35

295

822

33,

533

$125

$294

$120

$28

$442

Min

or R

oad

Gra

vel 5

00-1

000

AAD

T47

134

422

603

$75

$4$1

0$3

2$4

5Lo

w V

olum

e Ro

ad <

500

AAD

T0

500

50$3

0$0

$2$0

$2Co

rrec

tion

fac

tor

(1)

281

Tota

l28

161,

142

645

4,88

4$4

02$1

31$6

0$5

93

Hig

h >=

66M

ediu

m 6

3-66

Low

<63

Tota

l k

mAv

g co

st,

$000

/km

Hig

h M

ediu

mLo

wTo

tal

$ m

illio

nM

ajor

Roa

d 50

00-1

3,00

0 AA

DT

270

027

$250

$7$0

$0$7

Min

or R

oad

DBS

T 10

00-5

000

AAD

T 2,

447

218

422,

707

$125

$306

$27

$5$3

38M

inor

Roa

d G

rave

l 500

-100

0 AA

DT

1,65

81,

278

765

3,70

1$6

0$9

9$7

7$4

6$2

22Lo

w V

olum

e Ro

ad <

500

AAD

T81

888

31,

358

3,05

9$3

0$2

5$2

6$4

1$9

2Co

rrec

tion

fac

tor

(1)

162

Tota

l4,

950

2,37

92,

165

9,65

6$4

37$1

30$9

2$6

59

Tota

l All

Road

s17

,782

km$1

,420

(1)

Tran

spor

t m

odel

QRS

II w

as u

sed

for

the

mul

ti-c

rite

ria

anal

ysis

. It

use

s ro

ad s

ecti

on le

ngth

s m

easu

red

from

dig

itiz

ed m

aps

whi

ch r

esul

t in

a s

mal

l dif

fere

nce

from

MPW

inve

ntor

y le

ngth

.

Nat

iona

l Hig

hway

s

Prov

inci

al R

oads

Pr

iori

tiza

tion

Prio

riti

zati

on

Cons

truc

tion

Cos

t Es

tim

ate

Cons

truc

tion

Cos

t Es

tim

ate

Tabl

e 8.

1 To

tal D

evel

opm

ent R

equi

rem

ents

and

Dev

elop

men

t Cos

ts, 2

005

Pric

es


As with National Highways, many Provincial Roads have already been taken up therefore the additional 2006-2015 requirement is: Length, kmTotal requirement (Table 8.1) 9656Less projects taken up (Table 2.4) 2000Net requirement 7656

8.2 Development Options There are several options for a road programme for 2006-2015, which we believe are bracketed by the three options summarized in Table 8.2:

Table 8.2 Road Programme Options 1. Develop the entire road network including all low, medium and high road priorities in each road class

2. Develop all National Highways and high-priority Provincial Roads with the with the same possibility of including some medium-priority Provincial Roads if funds are available

3. Develop high-priority National Highways and high-priority Provincial Roads with the same possibility of including some medium-priority roads if funds are available

RH 281 km NH 4884 km PR 9656 km Total 14,821 km

RH 281 km NH 4884 km PR 4950 km Total 10,115 km

RH 281 km NH 2816 km PR 4950 km Total 8047 km

Cost $1420 million Cost $1198 million Cost $1008 million Each option assumes the Regional Highway widening requirements will be fully implemented. The choice of option depends on the amount of funding the GOA wishes to allocate to road development and maintenance, and the country’s technical capacity for implementation. These in turn are affected by other factors: • Completion of the Regional Highway network as scheduled – delays could impact

on other road projects • Borrowing capacity of the GOA to fund further road works • Allocation of road budget among development, maintenance and special works • Priority given to the road sector by the GOA after the Regional Highways are

completed • Institutional capacity of MWP to manage road construction projects • Institutional capacity of MPW to maintain completed roads • Road construction industry capacity, both domestic and international joint

ventures • Private sector participation in the provision of road infrastructure through public-

private partnership such as BOT projects, long term road maintenance, toll system implementation etc..

• Engineering design and supervision capacity, both domestic and international. Option 3 provides a reasonable, achievable target of reconstructing and developing an average of 925 km per year with the possibility of adding roads if priorities change, institutional capacity improves and more funding becomes available.

59


The choice should take into consideration the revenues available for road maintenance. Revenue options are discussed in Chapter 9 which shows that a package of road user charges comprising reasonable tolls, fuel levy and vehicle registrations will generate sufficient revenues to maintain an Option 3 road program.

Figure 8.1 Regional Highway Requirement

Regional Highway Widening Requirement With 2015 AADT

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Total

RH05 Kabul -TorkhamCorridor

RH04 Mazar eSharif - Kabul

RH01 Kabul -Kandahar

Road Length, km

Widen 4 lanes >12,000 ADTNo capacity increase needed, km

Figure 8.2 National Highway and Provincial Road Requirement

Provincial Road Multi-criteria Scores With 2015 AADT

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

High >=66 Medium 63-66

Low <63 Total

Priority

Roa

d Le

ngth

, km

Low Volume Road <500 AADT

Minor Road Gravel 500-1000 AADT

Minor Road DBST 1000-5000

National Highway Multi-criteria Scores With 2015 AADT

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

High >=79 Medium 73.5-79

Low <73.5 Total

Priority

Roa

d Le

ngth

, km

Minor Road Gravel 500-1000 AADT

Minor Road DBST 1000-5000AADT Major Road 5000-13,000 AADT

60


61

8.3 Road Expenditure Requirement 2006-2015 Road expenditure requirements are summarized in Table 8.3. They are divided into: • Development • Routine maintenance • Periodic maintenance • Special works

Development Expenditure The development expenditure estimates correspond to Option 3 described in the previous section. Road lengths have been adjusted slightly to provide a round number each year. The assumptions include: • Completion of current Regional Highway projects by 2009 • Widening of high trafficked Regional Highways beginning in 2009 (281 km over 7

years) • Completion of existing National Highway projects and implementation of high-

priority National Highway projects (approximately 2700 km over 9 years) • Implementation of high-priority Provincial Roads (about 5000 km over 10 years) • Expenditure estimates include the current work program between 2004 and 2009 The trend in development expenditures as shown in Table 8.3 and Figure 8.3 indicates a significant decrease in annual requirements in 2009 to $132 million marking the completion of the large Regional Highway reconstruction projects. Thereafter, the requirement will be $110 million per year. The total road development requirement to 2015 including existing projects is $2,678 million.

Routine Maintenance Expenditure Road maintenance expenditures are projected to increase steadily as road projects are completed, from $8 million in 2006 to $25 million in 2015. See Table 8.3 and Figure 8.4. Winter maintenance will form a relatively small proportion of total maintenance cost and it is assumed to be included in the routine maintenance expenditure. This is not quite correct and as soon as the winter maintenance requirement is defined, the expenditures should be added to the total in Table 8.3. Periodic Maintenance Expenditure Periodic maintenance will not be required until 2010 but then expenditures will jump significantly to about 45 million per year from 2011 to 2015. This periodic maintenance is required for the Regional and National Highway projects currently under construction. Refer to Table 8.3 and Figure 8.4. In reality, periodic maintenance probably will not peak as sharply as shown because: • Variations in pavement deterioration due to traffic growth, volumes of trucks,

extent of overloading and other factors will result in maintenance being advanced on some roads and delayed on others.

• Practical constraints on MPW programming and implementation of maintenance contracts.

Cur

rent

pro

gram

Pla

nned

pro

gram

Dev

elop

men

t Exp

endi

ture

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Tota

lR

egio

nal H

ighw

ays

Leng

th c

ompl

eted

km

(2-la

ne e

quiv

alen

t)53

875

764

750

750

9040

4040

4040

403,

522

Est

imat

e (a

vg $

440,

000/

km 2

-lane

, $60

0,00

0/km

Exp

ress

way

I st

anda

rd)

$23

$385

$336

$330

$330

$46

$24

$24

$24

$24

$24

$24

$1,5

94N

atio

nal H

ighw

ays

Leng

th c

ompl

eted

km

400

764

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

3,86

4E

stim

ate

(avg

$13

9,00

0/km

for h

igh

prio

rity

road

s Ta

ble

8.1)

$80

$153

$42

$42

$42

$42

$42

$42

$42

$42

$42

$608

Pro

vinc

ial R

oads

Leng

th c

ompl

eted

km

400

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

5,40

0E

stim

ate

(avg

$88

,000

/km

for h

igh

prio

rity

road

s Ta

ble

8.1)

$3

5$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

4$4

75To

tal D

evel

opm

ent

$23

$500

$533

$416

$416

$132

$110

$110

$110

$110

$110

$110

$2,6

78

Mai

nten

ance

Exp

endi

ture

20

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15To

tal

Reg

iona

l Hig

hway

sLe

ngth

com

plet

ed k

m53

875

764

750

750

9040

4040

4040

403,

522

3242

km

exi

stin

g ne

twor

kC

umul

ativ

e le

ngth

com

plet

ed k

m53

928

1,69

22,

442

3,19

23,

282

3,32

23,

362

3,40

23,

442

3,48

23,

522

-R

outin

e m

tce

(avg

$30

00/k

m/y

r beg

in a

fter c

ompl

etio

n)$5

$7$1

0$1

0$1

0$1

0$1

0$1

0$1

0$1

1-

Per

iodi

c m

tce

(avg

$44

,000

/km

beg

in 6

yea

rs a

fter c

ompl

etio

n)$2

$28

$28

$28

$28

$28

-To

tal R

H m

aint

enan

ce$5

$7$1

0$1

0$1

2$3

8$3

8$3

8$3

8$3

9-

Nat

iona

l Hig

hway

sLe

ngth

com

plet

ed k

m40

076

430

030

030

030

030

030

030

030

030

03,

864

4,88

4C

umul

ativ

e le

ngth

com

plet

ed k

m40

01,

164

1,46

41,

764

2,06

42,

364

2,66

42,

964

3,26

43,

564

3,86

4-

Rou

tine

mtc

e (a

vg $

2500

/km

/yr b

egin

afte

r com

plet

ion)

$3$4

$4$5

$6$7

$7$8

$9$1

0-

Per

iodi

c m

tce

(avg

$22

,000

/km

beg

in 6

yea

rs a

fter c

ompl

etio

n)$9

$7$8

$9$1

0-

Spe

cial

wor

ks (a

vg $

5000

/km

/yr f

or ro

ads

not i

mpr

oved

unt

il af

ter 2

010)

$13

$13

$13

$13

$13

$11

$10

$8$7

$5-

Tota

l NH

mai

nten

ance

$16

$16

$17

$18

$19

$27

$24

$24

$24

$24

-

Pro

vinc

ial R

oads

Leng

th c

ompl

eted

km

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

5,00

09,

656

Cum

ulat

ive

leng

th c

ompl

eted

km

500

1,00

01,

500

2,00

02,

500

3,00

03,

500

4,00

04,

500

5,00

0-

Rou

tine

mtc

e (a

vg $

1000

/km

/yr b

egin

afte

r com

plet

ion)

$1$1

$2$2

$3$3

$4$4

$5$5

-P

erio

dic

mtc

e (a

vg $

17,0

00/k

m b

egin

6 y

ears

afte

r com

plet

ion)

$9$9

$9$9

$9-

Spe

cial

wor

ks (a

vg $

2000

/km

/yr f

or ro

ads

not i

mpr

oved

unt

il af

ter 2

010)

$13

$13

$13

$13

$13

$13

$12

$11

$10

$9-

Tota

l PR

mai

nten

ance

$14

$14

$15

$15

$16

$25

$24

$24

$23

$23

-

Rou

tine

Mai

nten

ance

$8$1

2$1

5$1

7$1

8$2

0$2

1$2

2$2

4$2

5$1

84P

erio

dic

Mai

nten

ance

$2$4

5$4

4$4

5$4

5$4

6$2

28S

peci

al W

orks

$26

$26

$26

$26

$26

$24

$22

$19

$17

$14

$227

Tota

l Mai

nten

ance

--

$34

$38

$41

$43

$47

$89

$87

$87

$86

$86

$638

Dev

elop

men

t and

Mai

nten

ance

Exp

endi

ture

20

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15To

tal

Tota

l Dev

elop

men

t fro

m a

bove

$23

$500

$533

$416

$416

$132

$110

$110

$110

$110

$110

$110

$2,6

78To

tal M

aint

enan

ce fr

om a

bove

$34

$38

$41

$43

$47

$89

$87

$87

$86

$86

$638

Tota

l (ex

clud

ing

Rur

al R

oads

)$2

3$5

00$5

67$4

54$4

57$1

75$1

56$1

99$1

97$1

96$1

96$1

95$3

,316

Num

bers

may

not

sum

due

to ro

undi

ng e

rror

s

AD

B T

A N

o. 4

371-

AFG

Mas

ter P

lan

for R

oad

Net

wor

k Im

prov

emen

t Pro

ject

(Mas

ter P

lan

Com

pone

nt)

Dra

ft Fi

nal R

epor

t, N

ovem

ber 2

005

62

Tabl

e 8.

3 R

oad

Expe

nditu

re E

stim

ates

200

6-20

15, $

mill

ions

200

5 Pr

ices

, Exc

ludi

ng R

ural

Roa

ds


Figure 8.3 Development Expenditure

Projected Development Expenditure Requirement

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ m

illio

n

Provincial RoadsNational HighwaysRegional Highways

Figure 8.4 Maintenance Expenditure

Projected Maintenance Expenditure Requirement

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ m

illio

n

Special WorksPeriodic MaintenanceRoutine Maintenance

63


Even though the requirement in any given year is difficult to predict, the overall requirement between 2011 and 2015 remains unchanged and will need to be funded. The average annual requirement will be as shown in Table 8.4.

Table 8.4 Average Annual Maintenance Requirement 2011-2015 ($ millions) Regional

Highways National

Highways Provincial

Roads Total

Routine Maintenance 10 8 4 22

Periodic Maintenance 28 9 9 46

Subtotal 38 17 13 68

Special Works 0 8 11 19

Total 38 25 24 87 Special Works Expenditure The most immediate maintenance requirement is for special works on National Highways and Provincial Roads, beginning with an estimated $26 million in 2006 and gradually decreasing to $14 million in 2015 as the backlog of work is eliminated. Over the 10-year master plan period, the need for special works will decrease while the need for routine and periodic maintenance will increase; the two trends approximately balancing each other. A special works programme to repair failures which have closed many road sections at specific locations is urgently needed and initially should be given equal priority to road development projects. Total Maintenance Expenditure It will take several years to establish maintenance programs and long-term funding arrangements, but these will need to be firmly in place by 2010 when the current projects are completed and maintenance becomes a high priority for MPW. Table 8.4 shows the average annual maintenance requirement for the years 2011-2015. MPW will need to budget of in the range of $85 - 90 million each year to cover all maintenance.

8.4 Road Funding Assured funding sources will be needed to cover these maintenance expenditures, as discussed in Chapter 9. The development and maintenance expenditure scenario detailed above represents a completion of all high-priority National Highways and Provincial roads in the 2006-2015 period (Option 3 in Table 8.2). Other scenarios are possible, depending on the capacity of the Government to fund and implement road projects and to maintain completed roads. For example, medium-priority roads could be brought forward if additional funding is available, widening of regional highways could be undertaken with public-private partnership (e.g. Build-Operate-Transfer) thereby freeing funds for medium-priority National Highways and Provincial Roads and, the priority of individual roads may change as well. The Regional Highway sections requiring widening to 4 lanes are ideal candidates for developing as toll roads with the private sector funding the construction and recovering the construction and maintenance costs with tolls over a concession period of 20 to 30 years.

64


9. Funding Sources for Road Maintenance Several possible sources of funding are examined in this section, as well as estimated volumes of traffic which were developed during the course of our field surveys. The three major components of road users charges are fuel levies, vehicle registration fee and tolls generated from road users on the Regional Highway system. We also have estimated the future stream of income generated by each of these road user charges.

9.1 Existing Sources of Road Funding

9.1.1 Road Tolls Afghanistan has nearly a 30-year history of operating toll roads. The Official Bulletin No. 238 Toll Fees for Motor Vehicles, 7 October 1974, set out the regulations for the toll system that continued to be used until 23 September 2002. Tolls were collected at provincial boundaries by staff of MPW and receipts from the toll collection were intended for maintenance of the roads within the province from where the toll was collected. It could not be verified, however, that all funds received from these tolls were actually spent for road maintenance. In addition, records were not available that verified the total amounts collected. A country-wide toll collection system was in effect between 1974 and 1999, with all monies collected deposited to the general revenue fund. Since 1999, a dedicated Road Fund existed, funded by the toll receipts. However, the toll system since 1999 was not a countrywide one, and incorporated only four tolling stations of major roads in the vicinity of Kabul. The tolls were set on a per km basis for each of six vehicle types: • passenger cars 110 Afghanis per km • 1-tonne trucks 150 Afghanis ($0.00375) • minibus 170 Afghanis ($0.00275) • large bus 200 Afghanis ($0.005) • 2-axle truck 450 Afghanis ($0.01125) • large trucks 500 Afghanis ($0.0125). These reflect the old Afghan currency; the value at the time was approximately 40,000 = $1. These rates reflect the latest toll rates charged prior to abandoning the system in September 2002. Tolls were charged for all vehicles with the exception of those with official government registrations. Based on these levels of toll rates, the total annual yield for a road with approximately 1,500 vehicles per day was approximately $2400/km. The toll system was abandoned in 2002 due to abuse of the system. Tolls were often found in the hands of local warlords or other groups illegally collecting tolls. There were also allegations that toll revenues were being embezzled by toll collection staff.

9.1.2 Vehicle Registration Fees The Traffic Department of the Ministry of Interior collects vehicle registration fees. This fee consists of a one-time fee equal to 1% of the value of the vehicle; this is paid

65


upon acquiring the vehicle. In addition, a fee of Af 500 is also paid upon acquiring of the vehicle. Every year, a fee equal to Af 100 per tonne, based on gross vehicle weight is paid to the traffic department. During the 1383/2004 year, a total of Af 136 million ($2.7 million) was collected; projections for the 1384/2005 year, a total of Af 170 million ($3.4 million) is anticipated. All of these funds are deposited to the general revenue of the treasury. We consider that vehicle registration fees are road user charges and the equivalent amount be made available for expenditures on roads.

9.1.3 Transport Commission A transport commission fee is collected by the MOT. This fee amounts to 5% of the transport charges for all commercial vehicles and is remitted to the MOF and deposited to general revenue. Collection points are generally at provincial boundaries, though several collection points are located on main roads on the outskirts of Kabul. During the past financial year 1383/2004 approximately $1 million was transferred from the MOT to the MOF. It is the view of the MOF that there are enforcement problems with the collection of this fee and that the actual amount that should have been transferred is about 10 times the existing receipts We do not consider this transport commission income as a road user charge and therefore it will not form a part of the country’s future road user charging system.

9.2 Future Sources of Road Maintenance Funding In order to ensure the long term integrity of the rehabilitated road system of Afghanistan, as well as to provide funds for the maintenance of existing roads, a source of funding needs to be identified and a means to ensure that sufficient funds are allocated for maintenance. Road user charges that are often used to fund road maintenance include special levies on fuel and vehicle registration fees. In countries where road funds exist, proceeds from the fuel levy and vehicle registration fees are deposited into the road fund to be used exclusively for road maintenance and improvements. The most appropriate method for funding future road maintenance expenses is being studied and debated within the MPW and MOF. It is also the subject of the Consultative Group – Transport Sector’s Working Group on Road Funding consisting of representatives of international financial institutions. The primary method under evaluation is the imposition of road tolls on rehabilitated sections of the Regional Highway network. We feel that this toll road financing is appropriate, but should be combined with a fuel levy and vehicle registration fees that in the future will form the “package” of road user charges. Before further evaluating these potential future sources of funding, it is important to evaluate the utilization of the vehicle fleet to develop estimates of future potential income.

9.2.1 Vehicle Utilization and Fuel Usage There is limited reliable information about the number of vehicles in the country and their annual utilization. Based on data obtained from the Ministry of Transport, shown

66


in the ADB publication Transport Sector Building Connections report (March, 2004) 17there are an estimated 304,300 vehicles in Afghanistan. Incorporated in the HDM-4 model are fuel consumption rates for each vehicle type. We applied these rates to the annual vehicle kilometres derived from traffic modelling results. The annual vehicle km usage by vehicle type was estimated from the number of vehicles and the modelled vehicle km on the network. We have reviewed these rates and they appear to be reasonable based on the vehicle types and conditions existing in Afghanistan. Estimates of fuel consumption by road vehicles are shown in Table 9.1.

Table 9.1 Vehicle Fleet Utilization and Fuel Usage Annual Annual

Number of km/year Vehicle km Fuel Usage Usage(millionsVehicles per vehicle (millions) litres per km of litres)

Car/Util 225000 9700 2180 0.08 174Small bus 30000 31000 943 0.14 132Large bus 1800 44000 79 0.19 15Truck: small 21850 24000 531 0.13 69 medium 15200 24000 370 0.21 78 heavy 7125 24000 174 0.38 66 artic 3325 27000 89 0.53 47Total 304300 4367 582

Income from fuel sales to road users:(@ $290.85 million All fuel is imported, primarily by rail to the Afghanistan border through Uzbekistan (80%) and Turkmenistan (20%), then by truck to the various distribution centres. Statistics of the fuel imported by border crossing has been obtained from Petroleum Enterprise Corporation, a division of the Ministry of Commerce; a summary of this information is shown in Table 9.2. Converting the tonnage of fuel imported (440,307 tons) at a rate of 1200 litres per ton indicate that fuel imports amount to approximately 528 million litres during 2004. This can be compared with the estimated usage of fuel by road vehicles of 582 million litres, as shown in Table 9.1. The difference can be due to inaccuracies in the fuel import data, or the illegal importation of some fuel as well as uncertainties associated with the estimate of fuel usage (the total vehicle-km and fuel consumption rates).

Table 9.2 Imports of Fuel by Border Crossing (2004) Border Crossings Petrol Diesel Kerose

ne Jet

Fuel Liquid Gas

Total Metric Tons

%

Torghundi (Turkmenistan)

28,710 13,555 1,273 2831 39291 85,660 19%

Islam Qala (Iran) 161 4679 721 0 105 5,666 2%Hairatan (Uzbekistan) 107,786 216,048 25147 0 0 348,981 79%Total 136,657 234,283 27,141 2831 39396 440,307 100%% of type of fuel 31% 53% 6% 1% 9% 100% Source: Petroleum Enterprise Corporation; Ministry of Communications, Kabul It is recommended that a fuel levy sufficient to meet the maintenance needs be introduced in parallel with the collection of road tolls. The money from tolls will be 17 Transport Sector Building Connections; Asian Development Bank, March, 2004.

67


used for maintenance of the Regional Highways, while fuel levy funds can be used for the maintenance of the remainder of the road network (national and provincial roads), ensuring the long term integrity of the improved road system. This cross subsidy from fuel levy is necessary as traffic volumes on most of the national and provincial roads are insufficient to justify establishing a toll system. The establishment of this toll system will require new legislation as the Decree General No. 43 of September 23 2002 special No. 13 effectively abolished the toll system that was in place.

9.3 Potential Income from Fuel Levy and Vehicle Registrations A fuel levy is relatively easy and inexpensive to collect, though there are some difficulties with regard to non-road users that purchase fuel. These difficulties can easily be remedied through a rebate system for non-road users of fuel. At the present time, fuel prices in Afghanistan rank among the lowest in the region (Af 25, or about $0.50 per litre) with no tax except customs duty of 9%. Based on a sample of 24 countries world-wide, taxes on fuel range from 13% to 70% As described previously, based on fuel usage and estimated vehicle population, we have estimated that the total amount of fuel used for road transport vehicles is approximately 582 million litres; this would translate into about $291 million in expenditures for fuel by road users, as shown in Table 9.1. Fuel consumption rates were applied to vehicle-km as obtained from our traffic model. Table 9.3 shows the calculation of annual kilometres per vehicle, fuel usage and the amount of money spent on fuel by road vehicle operators. The annual kilometres per year for each vehicle type appear to be reasonable, especially compared with data obtained from other road studies in the region. In particular, a road study in Tajikistan 18 produced vehicle utilization rates very similar to those shown in Table 9.3. If a fuel levy of 10 percent of retail fuel price were to be applied, a total of about $29 million could be collected from road users. Including the estimated $3.4 million collected from vehicle registration fees, the total yield (based on today’s vehicle population and fuel usage) would be $32.4 million. This money could be used for maintenance of the National Highway and Provincial Road system.

9.4 Potential Income from Toll Roads We have made estimates of potential income from tolling the entire Regional Highway system using the traffic count data from our traffic modelling results. We have assumed that not all traffic counted will be subject to the toll payment, either because the vehicles are exempted (government vehicles), due to short distance movements that will not pass a toll booth, or due to the positioning of the toll collection/checking facilities that will allow some vehicles to escape paying the toll. We have therefore reduced the vehicle kilometres of traffic on the Regional Highways accordingly. From the traffic survey data, we have estimated the number of vehicle kilometres for each vehicle type, by type of road (regional, national and provincial). This information

18 Tajikistan Second Road Rehabilitation Project; ADB TA 3728; 2002

68


69

was obtained by multiplying the number of vehicles estimated in each road section by the total length of each road section being considered. For some vehicle types, this method may produce overstated results, as the entire length of the road may not be travelled. This is most likely for cars, small buses and small trucks. In order to avoid overstating our results, we have reduced the vehicle kilometre data for these vehicle types by 30%. In addition we recognize that not every vehicle will pay the toll. In the past, government vehicles were exempt from tolls; we must assume that the policy will be the same under the new toll system. Also, depending on the nature of the toll system implemented, some vehicles may “escape” the toll due to positioning of the toll booths (or vignette checking stations). In order to reflect this lost toll revenue, we have made a further reduction of 20% of all vehicle kilometres on regional roads that would be subject to the toll. Toll rates included in our analysis were taken from proposed toll rates shown in the report Toll System Study for Kabul – Kandahar – Spin Boldak road, prepared during the latter part of 2004. These rates were $0.005 per pce/km, with alternative rates of $0.01 and $0.015 per pce/km. The lower range of these toll rates suggested are very similar to toll rates proposed by the Minister of Public Works in his letter to the Office of Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan. These toll rates are considerably less than rates charged on toll roads in Western Europe where typical toll rates for a passenger car range from $0.03 to $0.05 per kilometre. In our toll income calculations, we have deducted an estimated amount of 15% of toll income for administration costs of the toll system. Projections of toll collections were made using the three alternative toll rates ($0.005; $0.01 and $0.015/pce) and applied to the passenger car equivalents for each vehicle These pce’s are: car/utility vehicle = 1; small bus = 2; large bus = 4; light truck = 2; medium truck 4; heavy truck = 5; articulated truck = 6. Estimated toll revenue from one year of toll road operation is shown in Table 9.3. Table 9.3 also shows the calculation of toll income by vehicle type and under the three alternative toll rate scenarios. The “toll vehicles” refers to the adjusted vehicle kilometres; with “fuel vehicles” includes all vehicle kilometres as per our traffic model. The estimate shows toll income will range from US$ 13.4 million to US$ 40.3 million in the first year for the three toll levels. The table also gives the income based on the toll rate suggested by the Working Group at US$ 10.6 million in the first year.

AD

B T

A N

o. 4

371-

AFG

Mas

ter P

lan

for R

oad

Net

wor

k Im

prov

emen

t Pro

ject

(Mas

ter P

lan

Com

pone

nt)

Dra

ft Fi

nal R

epor

t, N

ovem

ber

2005

70

Traf

fic S

urve

y: V

ehic

le S

tatis

tics

Car

/Util

ityLi

ght

Med

ium

Hea

vy

Artic

Vehi

cle

Smal

l Bus

Larg

e Bu

sTr

uck

Truc

kTr

uck

Truc

kTo

tal

Reg

iona

l Roa

dsve

h km

(tol

l veh

)73

230

241

144

146

8759

1510

Reg

iona

l Roa

dsve

h km

(fue

l veh

)13

0753

851

257

183

108

7425

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nal R

oads

" "

429

214

2310

094

326

899

Prov

inci

al R

oads

" "

444

191

517

393

349

950

Tota

l "

"21

8094

379

531

370

174

8943

67fu

el u

sage

rate

(l/k

m)

0.08

0.14

0.19

0.13

0.21

0.38

0.53

Tota

l fue

l use

d (m

illion

s lit

res)

174

132

1569

7866

4758

2Fu

el s

ales

($ m

illion

s)87

.22

66.0

47.

4934

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38.9

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23.5

929

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726.

600.

753.

453.

893.

312.

3629

Car

/Util

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ght

Med

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Hea

vy

Artic

Vehi

cle

Smal

l Bus

Larg

e Bu

sTr

uck

Truc

kTr

uck

Truc

kTo

tal

Reg

iona

l Roa

dspc

e1

24

24

56

Toll

rate

/pce

($):

Annu

al T

oll R

even

ue ($

milli

ons)

$0.0

043

(toll

rate

s ne

t of

3.11

2.56

0.69

1.22

2.48

1.84

1.51

13.4

2$0

.008

5ad

min

istra

tion

6.22

5.13

1.38

2.45

4.97

3.69

3.01

26.8

5$0

.012

8co

st o

f 15%

)9.

347.

692.

073.

677.

455.

534.

5240

.27

Cos

t Rec

over

y W

orki

ng G

roup

pce

:1

1.4

1.6

1.2

3.6

3.6

4.4

Car

Smal

l Bus

Larg

e Bu

sLi

ght T

ruc k

Med

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TrH

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Tru

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uck

$0.0

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111.

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280.

732.

241.

331.

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ende

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e3.

112.

560.

691.

222.

481.

841.

5113

.42

Futu

re Y

ears

' Tol

l Inc

ome

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$0.0

043

13.4

214

.50

15.6

616

.91

18.2

619

.72

21.3

023

.01

24.8

526

.83

$0.0

085

26.8

528

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31.3

133

.82

36.5

239

.45

42.6

046

.01

49.6

953

.67

$0.0

128

40.2

743

.49

46.9

750

.73

54.7

959

.17

63.9

069

.02

74.5

480

.50

CR

WG

Tol

ls10

.58

11.4

312

.35

13.3

314

.40

15.5

516

.80

18.1

419

.59

21.1

6Fu

el L

evy

and

Vehi

cle

Reg

istr

atio

n Fe

esFu

el L

evy

10%

29.0

831

.41

33.9

236

.64

39.5

742

.74

46.1

549

.85

53.8

358

.14

Veh

Reg

Fee

3.4

3.67

3.97

4.28

4.63

5.00

5.40

5.83

6.29

6.80

Tota

l32

.48

35.0

837

.89

40.9

244

.20

47.7

351

.55

55.6

760

.13

64.9

4Al

tern

ativ

e Fu

el le

vy p

erce

ntag

es:

15%

43.6

347

.12

50.8

954

.96

59.3

564

.10

69.2

374

.77

80.7

587

.21

20%

58.1

762

.82

67.8

573

.28

79.1

485

.47

92.3

199

.69

107.

6711

6.28

Tabl

e 9.

3 Po

tent

ial I

ncom

e Fr

om R

oad

Use

rs


9.5 Recommended Road Funding Mechanisms Road Tolls on Regional Highways Based on our estimates above and the road expenditures in Chapter 8, a toll system instituted on the Regional Highways network could yield sufficient revenue for all routine and periodic maintenance on the Regional Highways over the next five years. In order to maximise efficiency, we recommend that the toll collection be undertaken by a private sector organization with MPW providing the necessary oversight. Appropriate legislation would have to be introduced to permit the toll collection. The first road to be tolled would likely be the Kabul – Kandahar road, as well as the Salang Tunnel. We propose that the income from tolls should be used solely for routine and periodic maintenance of Regional Highways. Fuel Levy and Vehicles Registration Fees As a second element of the road user charging system, it is recommended that a fuel levy be introduced in order to collect money needed for maintenance of the National Highways and Provincial Roads. We have shown that it would be possible to collect about $29 million if a fuel levy equal to 10% of the retail price of fuel were introduced on fuel sales. Including income from vehicle registration fees, ($3.4 million) a total of $32.4 could be collected from these sources in the first year of operation. If we assume that fuel sales to road users and vehicle registration fee income were to increase at a rate similar to that of traffic (8%/year) these yields would increase accordingly. Receipts from the tolls, as well as income from the fuel levy and vehicle registration fees, should be deposited to a dedicated Road Fund for use only to maintain the country’s road network. It is proposed that receipts from the road tolls be used solely for maintenance of the Regional Highway system; receipts from fuel levies and registration fees are to finance maintenance of the National Highway and Provincial Road networks. Expected Yield From Road User Charges The expected yield from each of these funding sources is summarized in Table 9.4. It can be seen from Table 9.4 that the sum of road user charges more or less can cover all maintenance costs including special works over the 2006-2015 period if we carry over the surplus of 2007-10 period into 2011-15 period. However, it is clear that the maintenance expenditure will go above the revenues by 2015. Even if we assume that requirements of special works (on an average of US$19 million during 2011-2015) will taper off from 2015 onwards, periodic maintenance needs of National Highways and Provincial Roads will substantially increase beyond 2015 as they kick in after about 6 years of construction. These figures assume that the toll and fuel levy programs were fully implemented by 2006. In Table 9.5 the incomes from the various road user charges are compared with estimated expenditure for each road type. The toll income is sufficient to fund all maintenance requirements for the regional roads up to about 2012 but beyond that, with the periodic maintenance needs substantially increasing, the toll revenue at the rate of $0.005/pce km will be insufficient. However, the fuel levy plus vehicle registration fees will cover necessary costs for the National Highways and Provincial Roads.

71


Table 9.4 Projected Yield From Road User Charges

$ millions (Annual Average) Funding Source 2006 2007-2010 2011-2015

Regional Highways: Toll income NationalHighways/Provincial Roads/Rural Roads Fuel levy (10%) Vehicle registration Subtotal Total

13

29 3

32 45

16

36 4 40 56

23

50 6 56 79

Road Maintenance Expenditures (from Table 8.3)

34

42

87

Source: Consultant’s estimates; the toll income assumes a toll rate of $0.005/pce km It can be seen that during the early years of implementation of the system, that there is a surplus of income over estimated expenditures for both Regional Highways as well as National Highways and Provincial Roads. In fact, this surplus may be less than it appears, as the toll would be imposed only as sections of the Regional Highways are improved; therefore the full implementation of the toll system may be slower than anticipated. We strongly recommend that this surplus be set aside to anticipate emergency repairs due to natural disasters (earthquakes, flooding, etc.) that may arise during the course of the year. This emergency fund will enable the MPW to react quickly to such emergencies and would minimize any hardships on the Afghan people. Once it becomes evident that the base toll rate ($0.005 per pce-km) will not yield enough revenue to cover the rising maintenance costs of the Regional Highways we recommend that the rate be increased to a level sufficient to cover the next period. For example the annual maintenance estimate in Table 9.5 for 2011-2015 suggests the rate may need to be raised to $0.010 per pce-km.

Table 9.5 Funding of Maintenance by Road Classification $ millions (Annual Average) Road Classification

2006 2007-2010 2011-2015 Regional Highways Maintenance 5 10 41 Net Toll Income (toll rate of $0.005/pce km) 13 16 23 National/Provincial Roads Maintenance 30 32 49 Income from Fuel Levy (10%) and Registrations 32 40 56 Total Maintenance 35 42 87 Total Income 45 56 79 Rural Roads The Consultative Group – Transport Sector Working Group 3 estimated that the annual maintenance costs of the 17,000 km of Rural Roads to be $15.9 million. This expenditure should be covered by the fuel levy and vehicle registration as well. However, as Table 9.5 shows, a fuel levy of 10% would not be sufficient to meet the additional requirement of Rural Road maintenance. Either the levy would need to be increased (to between 15% and 20% which should be sufficient) or another source of revenue for rural road maintenance needs to be found.

9.6 Structure of the Toll Collection System In the past, toll collection has been undertaken by staff of the Ministry of Public Works (MPW). There were serious problems with the collection mechanism, and

72


much of the money collected was unaccounted for and strong managerial controls were lacking. In order to avoid these problems of the past, we strongly recommend that the future toll collection be the responsibility of private sector organizations, with oversight the responsibility of the MPW. A critical issue affecting the actual yield of toll revenues is the structure of the toll system – will the system be based on cash collections from toll booths located at selected points along the regional road network, or will it be a vignette system, which is in place in many European countries, which involves the pre-payment of trips on the road network? Each system has its merits and drawbacks and need to be carefully evaluated before implemented. The Cost Recovery Working Group has proposed to implement a vignette system for toll collection. Under this system, each driver buys a sticker which is displayed on the wind screen of the vehicle. This vignette would be valid for a specified time period, for a specific vehicle type. It was suggested by the Cost Recovery Working Group that the time frames for vignettes be 10 days, monthly and annual. We would suggest that a daily vignette also be available to accommodate short infrequent trips. These vignettes would be purchased from locations in major cities, from authorized agencies. Depending on the manner in which the vignette system is organized, vehicle trips on short notice may be difficult to arrange and the cost of the trips bay prove to be a burden on local residents. It is doubtful that every driver will be able to purchase a vignette in time for urgent trips; therefore, there will need to be the provision at each toll facility to handle cash payments. The vignette system would be geared towards frequent road users; for those road users making infrequent trips, and alternative means of collecting tolls would have to be established, such as accepting cash for toll payments. One country where the vignette system is now being introduced is Romania. In that country, a vignette will be sold to Romanian registered vehicles for those vehicles that travel outside the municipality where they are registered. According to the current regulations, these vignettes are valid for one year; there may be a six-monthly vignette offered but according to existing legislation, only a one-year vignette is being offered. The vignette allows each vehicle to travel throughout the country on the national road system, during the period of validity (1 year). The following table shows typical annual rates for the Romanian vignette.

Table 9.6 Vignette Prices in Romania Bus Truck Car

Small Large Light Medium Heavy Artic Euro Dollars

20 16

200 160

450 360

78 62

200 160

450 360

500 400

Source: Romanian Vignette Regulations Applying the same vignette rates as in Romania to the vehicle population in Afghanistan (after deducting an estimated 20% for those vehicle owners that would not purchase a vignette), a total of $13.4 million income could be realized. This is nearly equal to the projected income from toll revenues, based on the toll rate of $0.005/pce. Whether road users in Afghanistan can afford to pay the annual vignette rates that are implemented in Romania is a question that needs some additional research. Also, it has been proposed that the Afghanistan vignette system will incorporate

73


vignettes for very short periods of time, and for specific routes. This increases considerably the complexity of administering and policing the system. Clearly, the vignette system has potential for application in Afghanistan. However, there needs to be considerably more research into the details of its application and the amount of money expected from its implementation. The method of toll collection will likely impact the amount of money collected. For example, if toll barriers are constructed at strategic locations along each regional road, with no vehicles exempted, this should result in the maximum toll income. However, under this tolling option, a fixed toll fee must be collected from the driver of each vehicle, regardless of distance travelled. The type of toll system most appropriate for Afghanistan will have to be carefully evaluated, as there are potential complications associated with each option. Yield from each toll collection method needs to be evaluated with respect to the complexity of each system and the cost to administer and monitor each system. Regardless of the type of system established, we recommend that the MPW contract out the operation of the toll system to a private organization, with MPW retaining an oversight role.

9.7 Sensitivity Tests We have performed sensitivity tests on the (i) traffic forecasts (ii) an alternative schedule of toll rates by vehicle type and (iii) toll rate per pce and alternative fuel levies. For the traffic forecasts, we have demonstrated the impact of a lower traffic growth rate and for the schedule of toll rates we have introduced an alternative toll rate for each vehicle type. For the toll rate per pce, we have quantified the impact of two higher rates. Traffic Forecast Growth Rate The following table shows the impact of a 3% annual traffic growth rate compared with the base case of 8%.

Table 9.7 Impact of 3% and 8% Traffic Growth Rates ($ millions) 2006 2010 2015 Toll Income

• 8% traffic growth rate • 3% “ “

Fuel Levy & Registration Fee

• 8% “ “ • 3% “ “

13.4213.42

32.4832.48

18.2615.11

44.2036.56

26.83 17.51

64.34 42.39

Source: Consultant’s estimates Alternative Schedule of Toll Rates by Vehicle Type The Cost Recovery Working Group (CRWG) prepared a sample schedule of toll rates for each vehicle type. While the toll rate for a passenger car is the same as we have shown for our base case ($0.005 per pce), the rates for other vehicle types are different. The difference lies in the implied pce units for each vehicle type as shown below:

74


Car Small Bus

Large Bus

Light Truck

Medium Truck

Heavy Truck

Articul Truck

Sheladia 1 2 4 3 4 5 6 CRWG 1 1.4 1.6 1.2 3.6 3.6 4.4

We have compared annual yield from toll rates based on the pce’s identified by the CRWG with the recommended rates shown in Table 9.3. The following graph (Figure 9.1) shows that the yield from CRWG rates is slightly less than from the recommended rate for all vehicles, except for cars. In addition, data shown in Table 9.3 indicate the annual yield from the CRWG rates would be $21.16 million by 2015, compared with $26.83 with the recommended rates. Our primary objection to the CRWG toll rate structure is not the lower annual yield but rather the issue of equity. Larger vehicles inflict much greater damage to the road surface than light vehicles, and the toll rate should reflect this additional damage, with higher toll rates. While we have not specifically computed the damage impact of each vehicle type, we consider the rates for heavy vehicles shown in the CRWG rates to be insufficient. We therefore would recommend the scale of rates that includes a higher pce equivalent for heavy vehicles.

Annual Yield from Alternative Toll Rates

01122334

car

small b

us

large bus

light tr

uck

medium tru

ck

heavy

truck

artic tru

ck

$ m

illio

ns Working Group pce

Recommended pce

Figure 9.1 Annual Toll Revenue Based on Different PCE’s Alternative Base Toll Rate per PCE and Fuel Levy The base case toll rate per pce is $0.005 per pce/km. We have computed annual toll revenue based on per pce toll rates of $0.01 and $0.015. It can be seen that potential total toll revenues range between $13 and $40 million in 2006, based on existing traffic levels, and applying alternative toll rate scenarios. We have also shown the impact of a fuel levy of 15% and 20% of the retail price of fuel. Projections of toll and fuel levy income are shown in the following graphs (Figures 9.2 and 9.3) for future years. User Charges in Relation to Vehicle Operating Cost Savings The proposed road improvements will result in significantly high vehicle operating cost savings as demonstrated in Table 9.8 for two select vehicles. These estimates are made using HDM-4 model. The maintenance of improved road require secured source of funding and road user charges in the form of tolls and fuel levies are recommended for this. The savings with improved roads are much higher than the road user charges suggested in the above analysis.

75


Projected Incom e from Alternative Toll Rates ($ m illions)

0102030405060708090

2006 2010 2015

$ m

illio

ns 0.005

0.01

0.015

Figure 9.2 Annual Toll Revenue – Alternate Toll Rates

Projected Annual Yield from Alternative Fuel Levy Percentage

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2010 2015

$ m

illio

ns 10%

15%

20%

Figure 9.3 Annual Revenue – Alternate Fuel Levy %

Table 9.8 Vehicle Operating Costs in US$ per 1000 km for Different Road Improvement Options

Fuel Savings in Fuel Cost

Lubricat-ing Oil Tyre Spare

parts Maint. Labor Total

Savings in Selected

ComponentsVehicle Type

Road Improvement

Option A % B C D E A+B+C+

D+E %

No improvements 50.8 1.3 4.7 49.1 4.4 110.2

Gravel 42.0 21% 1.2 4.6 34.1 3.6 85.5 29%

Minor Paved (SD) 35.5 43% 1.1 2.9 20.3 2.7 62.6 76% 4WD

Major Paved (AC) 40.8 24% 1.2 4.3 18.2 2.6 67.1 64%

No improvements 265.6 5.3 43.2 297.6 25.0 636.6

Gravel 219.3 21% 5.0 35.0 214.9 21.1 495.3 29%

Minor Paved (SD) 191.8 38% 4.8 28.1 140.8 16.9 382.4 66% Heavy Truck

Major Paved (AC) 203.5 31% 5.0 32.5 129.1 16.2 386.3 65% Note: A higher fuel consumption for Major AC road compared to Minor SD road is due to the higher speed for Major AC road compared to Minor AC Road. At higher speeds, fuel consumption tend to increase.

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9.8 Summary of Road User Funding The study has demonstrated that appropriate level of road user charges in the form of road tolls, fuel levies and vehicle registration fees would be sufficient to cover anticipated maintenance costs of the road network. The Consultative Group – Transport Sector (CG-TS) has submitted a recommendation to the government to implement a system of tolls on the Regional Highways to fund their maintenance requirements, and the master plan supports this recommendation. The toll rate proposed need careful consideration as our analysis indicate that a higher toll rate than the base toll rate of US$ 0.005 per pce-km may be needed if toll revenues have to fully fund the maintenance of Regional Highways in the long term. The master plan has estimated the revenues generated by $ 0.005 per pce-km toll rate and the traffic growth (8% p.a.) and concludes that revenues will be sufficient to cover maintenance costs up to 2010 but from 2011 onwards the rate would need to be increased to $0.010/pce-km. This scenario is shown in Table 9.9 and Figure 9.4. In practice, the toll rate should be fixed between $0.005 and $0.010/pce to start with and avoid a drastic increase in 2010.

Table 9.9 Road Maintenance Costs and Revenue Estimates ($ millions, 2005

prices) Regional Highways National Highways, Provincial Roads,

Rural Roads Year Maintenance

Costs (1) Toll

Revenues (2) Maintenance

Costs (3) Fuel Levy

Revenues (4) 2006 5 13 39 44 2007 7 14 42 47 2008 10 16 44 51 2009 10 17 46 55 2010 12 18 48 59 2011 38 39 62 64 2012 38 43 65 69 2013 38 46 64 75 2014 38 50 65 81 2015 39 54 67 87

1. Includes routine/periodic maintenance. 2. Based on $0.005/pce 2006-2010 and $0.010/pce 2011-2015. 3. Includes routine/periodic maintenance and special works for national highways and provincial roads

plus $ 10-16 million for rural roads (starting at $10 million in 2006 and increasing to $16 million in 2005) 4. Fuel levy = 15% of retail price.

Toll revenues will not be sufficient to cover maintenance of the Regional Highways and the remainder of the road network as well. The master plan recommends that a fuel levy be introduced to raise revenues for maintenance of the National Highways, Provincial Roads and Rural Roads. The existing system of vehicle registration fees should be retained but the revenues raised are comparatively small and not nearly sufficient to contribute to maintenance costs. As the fuel levy would apply to all road users it makes sense to use the revenues for Rural Road maintenance also (otherwise another revenue source would be needed). The CG-TS estimated the annual cost of maintaining the Rural Roads to be approximately $16 million p.a. which amount has been added to the total maintenance costs of National Highways and Provincial Roads in Table 9.9. Therefore, the fuel levy needs to generate revenues of $39 million p.a. beginning in 2006 and increasing to a level of approximately $65 million p.a. after 2010. This can be achieved with a 15% levy on the current retail price (Figure 9.5). It is recommended that the fuel levy and vehicle registration fees be deposited directly to a Road Fund. While the method of toll collection and utilization are being debated within the government in detail and implementation progresses, it will be

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important that the government begin the process of drafting the necessary legislation to establish this Road Fund as soon as possible. In addition, the details of the design and implementation of the toll system also need to be addressed within the government and specific recommendations/decisions to be made to proceed with the implementation.

Figure 9.4 Regional Highway Toll Revenue at Different Toll Levels and Estimates of Maintenance Expenditure

Figure 9.5 Fuel Levy and Vehicle Registration Revenue Scenarios

Regional Highway Toll Revenues

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10. Master Plan Implementation

10.1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations The master plan has been prepared based on detailed assessment of road development needs in Afghanistan, and is intended to guide the government in prioritizing road sector investments and establishing related policy framework and administrative capacity, which are essential for efficient management of Afghanistan's Road Network. The master plan is for the next 10 year period (2006/1385 – 2015/1394), and mainly covers the country's primary and secondary road networks. Road Network The base road network considered for master plan preparation covers all Regional Highways, National Highways and Provincial Roads. Details of the base road network are given in Table 10.1. The road network is illustrated in Section 2, Figure 2.1.

Table 10.1 Base Road Network Details Road Class Length, km Regional Highway 3242 National Highway 4884 Provincial Road 9656

Total 17,782 Note: Many roads have not been surveyed and the road lengths shown are best estimates from existing sources and surveys.

Afghanistan has no road numbering system and the master plan defined the start and end of each road and assigned it a unique number using prefixes RH for Regional Highways, NH for National Highways and PR for Provincial Roads. See Section 2.2. Existing Road Conditions The master plan completed field surveys in all provinces except Uruzgan and Zabul to identify roads in the network and to ascertain existing road conditions and deficiencies. Because the Regional Highways are being rehabilitated or improved, the field work concentrated on National Highways (1222 km = 25% surveyed) and Provincial Roads (3403 km = 35% surveyed). A road database and photo inventory was created and has been transferred to MPW. Only a very small proportion of road length is paved (7% of National Highways and 1% of Provincial Roads length). The remaining unpaved length is divided into approximately 65% gravel and 35% earth roads. Approximately 30% to 35% of road length is in fair or better condition; the remaining 65% to 70% is in poor or bad condition which results in low travel speeds (<20 km/h) and high vehicle operating costs due to tire wear, high fuel consumption and frequent repairs and parts replacement. The accessibility and mobility offered by the road network is very poor at present and the development of the entire base road network and rural roads is required to provide a reasonable level of accessibility and mobility.

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The majority of roads require rehabilitation19 or improvement20, but the most urgent requirement is for relatively small construction works or repairs at numerous specific locations to make roads passable. Such works typically include: restoration of fords or construction of causeways at river crossings; construction of retaining walls along river banks; reconstruction of culverts and bridges; reconstruction of badly failed pavements; and repair of landslides. The master plan recommends that a percentage of the road budget be allocated to a special works program to reopen roads, especially those roads which may not be taken up for rehabilitation or improvement for several years. Current Road Development Program Nearly all Regional Highways are currently being rehabilitated or improved with donor assistance from the Asian Development Bank, World Bank and bilateral donors from the United States, European Union, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and Pakistan. See Section 2.4. When completed, the ring road and major links with neighbouring countries will be constructed to a two-lane 7m carriageway standard with certain sections near Kabul and Kandhar improved to four lanes. Only two short sections, Hirat-Torghundi and Andkhoy-Aqina, are not part of the current program. The total cost of the current program is approximately $1100 million. Several National Highways are being improved and feasibility studies are being conducted of other National Highways including the Hirat-Chargcharan section and a new north-south highway through the centre of the country. USAID and other donors are funding rehabilitation or improvement of approximately 2000 km of Provincial and Rural Roads. The total cost of these projects is approximately $240 million. Road Traffic Forecasts and Road Improvement Options Future traffic on the road network was forecasted using a computerized transport model, QRS II. It estimates the number person trips and volumes of goods generated throughout the country based on changes in population, economic activity, income levels and trade activity. It then assigns the trips to the road network and estimates the volume of traffic on each road link, taking account of road developments, which reduce travel time and distance, such as new roads or improvements to existing roads. See Section 4. The traffic modelling indicate that by 2015, 25% of Regional Highways will carry more than 8000 vehicles a day and 52% carry 3000 to 8000 vehicles a day. In the case of National Highways, traffic levels on only about 5% of National Highways will be above 5000 vehicles a day by 2015. The North-South corridors through Bamyan is projected to carry a traffic level in the range of 1000 to 2500 vehicles per day in 2015 and the western corridor through Chaghcharan is projected to carry a traffic level in the range of 700 to 1500 vehicles per day in 2015. The major contributor to the traffic on the North-South corridor through Bamyan will be the anticipated development in Dari-i-suf coal mines and the Bamyan iron ore mine. The through transit traffic will mainly use Regional Highways and the North-South corridor through Chaghcharan. In the case of Provincial Roads, 75% of the road length will carry less than 1000 vehicles per day and the rest below 5000 vehicles per day by 2015.

19 Rehabilitation is defined as restoration to the original construction standard and may involve reconstruction of all or part of the road. 20 Improvement is defined as construction of the roadway and pavement to a higher standard e.g. from earth to gravel surface or from gravel to bituminous surface, or widening to two or four lanes.

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An economic analysis with HDM-421 has identified road improvement options for different forecast traffic levels, which are economically feasible and is given in Table 10.2.

Table 10.2 2015 AADT and Road Design Standard (1) 2015 AADT Economic Improvement Option Surface

<500 Low-Volume Road (4m carriageway)(2) Gravel

500-1000 Minor Road (6m carriageway) Gravel

1000-5000 Minor Road (6m carriageway) Sealed (e.g. DBST22)

5000-13,000 Major Road (7m carriageway) Asphaltic concrete

>13,000 Expressway (2 x 7m carriageway) Asphaltic concrete 1. Defined in Interim Road and Highway Standards, see footnote 1. 2. The master plan recommends addition of a Low-Volume Road standard. At present, traffic levels on most roads are very low: only 5% of the Regional Highway and National Highway network carry more than 5000 vehicles per day. By 2015, 281 km (8.7%) of the Regional Highway network will carry more than 13,000 vehicles per day and require widening to four or more lanes. By 2015, only 417 km (9%) of National Highway will carry more than 5000 vehicles per day and require improvement to Major Road standard. About 76 % of the National Highways will carry a traffic in the range of 1000 to 5000 vehicles by 2015 and require improvement to a sealed Minor Road standard. At present, 95% of Provincial Roads carry fewer than 1000 vehicles per day; by 2015, 29% will carry more than 1000 vehicles per day which would justify improvement to Minor Road standard with sealing. Road Needs and Priorities Each link in the master plan road network was assessed to determine its importance in terms of: • facilitating inter-regional connectivity and export/import facilitation • facilitating transit trade • linking administrative centres, industrial/mining centres and major towns • facilitating development of areas with high agricultural, mining, industrial and

tourism potential. A multi-criteria analysis was used to evaluate and score the relative importance of each road link. The criteria included: • population density along the road corridor (population/sq. km) • agricultural potential (irrigated area (ha)/1000 population) • connectivity (number of traffic generating centres served) • development potential (mining, industry, tourism) • traffic forecast (AADT). Each National Highway and Provincial Road link was prioritised based on the multi-criteria evaluation scores and grouped into high, medium or low priority groups. The grouping is done to indicate the relative importance of the links and not the absolute priority. The National Highway and Provincial Road priorities are illustrated in Section 7.3. The priority grouping needs further refinement to prepare the investment program ensuring regional balance (e.g. Nuristan, Urzghan having very low share of high priority roads) and logical continuity of road corridor development (e.g. National 21 Highway Development and Management model , World Road Association (PIARC) and World Bank. 22 Double bituminous surface treatment.

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Highways leading to Bamyan) as explained in Section 7.4. It is recommended that the road investment program allocate for each province at least a road length of 0.56 km per 1000 population in the next 10 years. Additional funding available can be used for other high and medium priority roads in different provinces according to the priority identified. Development Requirements and Costs The type and cost of rehabilitation or improvement needed on each road link were estimated based on the existing road condition and the 2015 traffic forecast. The economic road standards discussed earlier were adopted. There are several options for a road programme for 2006-2015 (see Section 8.2), which are bracketed by the three options; varying from developing all National Highways and Provincial Roads (Option 1 - 14821 km at a cost of US$ 1420 million) to developing only the high priority roads among them(Option 3 - 8047 km at a cost of US$1008 million). The choice of option depends on the amount of funding the GOA wishes to allocate to road development and maintenance, and the country’s technical capacity for implementation. The least ambitious among them, Option 3, which propose developing high-priority National Highways (2816 km) and high-priority Provincial Roads (4950 km) in addition to widening Regional Highways (281 km), provides a reasonable, achievable target of reconstructing and developing an average of 925 km per year with the possibility of adding roads if priorities change, institutional capacity improves and more funding becomes available. Maintenance Requirements and Costs The field surveys showed that, although roads are in poor or bad condition, most roads are motorable over a greater part of their length. But they are often impassable due to flooding, landslides and collapsed bridges or culverts. The majority of roads could be reopened to all traffic by initiating a program of special works in advance of full rehabilitation. Given the total length of road which requires rehabilitation, it is clear that most roads will not be included in the development program for many years. These roads need such special works to keep them open until they can be rehabilitated or improved. All roads will require routine maintenance after they are rehabilitated or improved and the cost of routine maintenance is estimated to increase steadily over the 2006-2015 period. Periodic maintenance will be required on all roads beginning six to eight years after rehabilitation therefore a quantum step in maintenance costs can be expected beginning about 2011. Winter maintenance is an important requirement in Afghanistan and MPW has identified winter maintenance requirements on the main road links. There are 1023 km of Category I roads requiring a high level of service and 972 km of Category II roads of lower priority. The master plan has estimated direct maintenance costs (excluding MPW administrative overheads) in each of these categories for the Regional Highways, National Highways and Provincial Roads. The total maintenance cost estimated average US$ 42 million annually for 2006-2010 period and US$ 87 million annually for 2011-2015 period. Funding of Road Maintenance The analysis in Section 9 on funding of road maintenance have demonstrated that appropriate level of road user charges in the form of road tolls, fuel levies and vehicle

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registration fees would be sufficient to cover anticipated maintenance costs of the road network. It was also found that the road user charges proposed to meet the maintenance expenditure is well below the savings in vehicle operating costs resulting from the improvement and regular maintenance and therefore should be acceptable to road users. The CG-TS proposed a schedule of tolls based on $0.005 per passenger car equivalent (pce). The master plan has estimated the revenues generated by this rate and the traffic growth (8% p.a.) and concludes that revenues will be sufficient to cover maintenance costs up to 2010 but from 2011 onwards the rate would need to be increased to $0.010/pce. In practice, the toll rate should be fixed between $0.005 and $0.010/pce to start with and avoid a drastic increase in 2010.

Toll revenues will not be sufficient to cover maintenance of the Regional Highways and the remainder of the road network as well. The master plan recommends that a fuel levy be introduced to raise revenues for maintenance of the National Highways, Provincial Roads and Rural Roads. The existing system of vehicle registration fees should be retained but the revenues raised are comparatively small and not nearly sufficient to contribute to maintenance costs. As the fuel levy would apply to all road users it makes sense to use the revenues for Rural Road maintenance also (otherwise another revenue source would be needed). Therefore, the fuel levy needs to generate revenues of $39 million p.a. beginning in 2006 and increasing to a level of approximately $65 million p.a. after 2010. This can be achieved with a 15% levy on the current retail price. It is recommended that the fuel levy and vehicle registration fees be deposited directly to a Road Fund. While the method of toll collection and utilization are being debated within the government in detail and implementation progresses, it will be important that the government begin the process of drafting the necessary legislation to establish this Road Fund as soon as possible. In addition, the details of the design and implementation of the toll system also need to be addressed within the government and specific recommendations/decisions to be made to proceed with the implementation.

10.2 Master Plan Implementation Implementation of the master plan will require careful management by MPW in coordination with other government agencies and donors. The principal steps include: Responsibility1. Appoint the MPW Planning Department to be responsible for the

master plan database and future updates. The ADB Technical Assistance has transferred all master plan field survey documents, photo inventory and computer files to the Planning Department and provided familiarization training to MPW staff.

MPW

2. Approve the road numbering system23 and adopt the updated road map. Once the numbering system is approved, Afghanistan Information Management Services (AIMS) should be requested to update the national road network map showing new roads and

MPW, AIMS

23 Road numbering is important because several current rehabilitation projects are installing kilometre posts and other signage as part of the construction works.

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the road numbering. This updated map can be used on all AIMS maps which show roads.

3. Approve the master plan. MPW and the Government need to approve the master plan as the document guiding road development and maintenance and indicating the level of investment and recurrent expenditures required over the next 10 years. The master plan is expected to change with time: priorities will be affected by changing circumstances; and traffic forecasts and construction costs will be estimated more accurately during feasibility and detailed engineering stages. The master plan should be applicable for at least five years and then may require updating.

MPW, Government

4. Develop a 2006-2015-road development program to follow current road projects. No changes are proposed in works under construction or soon to be implemented. However, MPW, Ministry of Finance (MOF) and donors can use the master plan priorities and cost estimates to prepare a future program, possibly in two or more stages. In the first stage (2006-2010), specific projects can be selected for feasibility studies, project preparation and implementation. In the second stage (2011-2105), a longer list of projects can be identified for inclusion in the project pipeline beginning in 2011.

MPW, MOF, Donors

5. Develop a 2006-2010 special works program in parallel with the road development program (See Section 5.5). MPW needs to identify special works requirements and priorities on all roads – based on the master plan road inventories and inputs from MPW field offices – and prepare cost estimates and works packages for tendering and implementation as quickly as funds can be made available.

MPW, MOF

6. Strengthen the capacity of MPW to implement the road development and special works programs. Much of the current road rehabilitation program is managed by donor agencies and consultants. MPW needs to build the capacity to take over management of all new projects. MPW will need to adopt business processes and acquire the technical resources to manage all stages in the project implementation process including project identification, feasibility, engineering design, procurement and contract administration. It is expected that all technical and construction services will be executed by the private sector therefore MPW will need to establish an effective project management capacity. It is recommended that MPW establish separate project management units for different types of works, for example Regional Highways, National Highways, Provincial Roads and special works.

MPW

7. Establish a land acquisition and environmental management capacity in MPW. MPW will be required to comply with the resettlement, social and environmental legislation and regulations of the Government as well as the safeguard policies and procedures of the major donors. Many road projects will require

MPW, Government

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detailed technical studies followed by land acquisition and implementation of social and environmental mitigation action plans. MPW and the Government need to establish the capacity to manage these procedures effectively and coordinate them with project engineering and construction works.

8. Strengthen the capacity of MPW to maintain the road network. MPW will be faced with a rapidly expanding requirement for routine, periodic and winter maintenance as the Regional Highways and other roads are rehabilitated and new roads are added to MPW’s inventory. MPW needs to establish new business processes and acquire the technical resources to manage all stages of maintenance planning and implementation using the full range of equipment- and labour-based methods and contracts.

MPW

9. Establish means of funding for development, special works and maintenance of the road network. The government will need to find sources for funding the road development program. It is expected that the international donors will provide loans to assist in improving the much of the National Highway and Provincial Road network. As traffic increases on the Regional Highways, it may be possible to finance the widening of certain sections through some type of public-private participation arrangement (for e.g. BOT). Special works and maintenance can be funded through a combination of tolls and a fuel levy (See Section 9).

MPW, MOF

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資料 No.F-6

The World Bank

AFGHANISTAN ROAD MAINTENANCE NOTE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. The Challenge: To meet Road Maintenance Requirements

Road may be a most significant public asset in Afghanistan, but their benefits can be sustained only if a well-planned program of maintenance immediately follows road improvements.

Road maintenance is categorized into routine, periodic and emergency maintenance. Maintenance options can be either outsourcing to private sector or carried out using force account (in-house units), but a recent increasing worldwide tendency is to shift maintenance works to the private sector, as contractors have proved more cost effective and efficient than in-house units, particularly in the developing world.

When outsourcing maintenance works, there are many variations in the types of contract, but in recent worldwide practice these are largely categorized into “traditional” input-based measurement contract and performance-based contract.

2. The Proposal: For Implementation and Funding Arrangements

The current critical issues for Afghan road maintenance are summarized as; (i) high construction cost, (ii) lack of capacity in both private and public sectors, and (iii) incapable financing. The on-going requirements and constraints in Afghanistan necessitates “hybrid approach” to satisfy urgent needs, yet moving toward desired goal of private sector oriented efficient road maintenance. The approach should consist of: (a) trying to build longer lasting roads, (b) maintaining limited force account maintenance workforce for the next 5-7 years, and (c) supporting private sector (local contracting industry) development for sustainable maintenance during the next 3-7 years.

As an immediate necessity, Jabal os Salaj – Khenjan Section with Salang Pass (82.7km) should be outsourced for urgent maintenance needs as a most critical road section. As a proposal for (c), a Post-Emergency Road Maintenance Project with a possible IDA finance could be discussed to develop efficient and cost effective road maintenance and to promote employment generation for local contracting market.

For funding road maintenance needs, road user charges should be a source of revenue to be utilized for road maintenance, but it may take time for its establishment. As a more direct funding measure, toll collection and/or annual road access charge could be the immediate solutions for sustainable funding.

3. The Way Forward: Recommendations for Action Plan

To meet the urgent requirement for road maintenance, the immediate actions are recommended for the following: (1) the government should set up clear policy about its approach and arrangement for road maintenance based on a mid-term maintenance plan, (2) maintenance contract for Jabal os Salaj – Khenjan Section should be framed immediately, (3) toll collection or annual road access charge arrangement should be established to contribute to immediate funding needs, (4) preparation for proposed post-emergency maintenance project can be initiated if the government agrees, (5) fuel surcharge and vehicle registration tax collection should be established at an earliest opportunity since the systematic road user charge collection is absolutely necessary to secure maintenance funding as one of the most important government revenue sources.

The World Bank

AFGHANISTAN ROAD MAINTENANCE NOTE

1. The Challenge: To Meet Road Maintenance Requirements

(1) Road Network Status in Afghanistan

The main road network in Afghanistan comprises 3,227 km of Regional Highways (international corridors), 4,906 km of National Highways, and 8,959 km of Provincial Roads. The remaining rural road network consists of village access roads of about 17,000 km.

As of the end of 2004, road rehabilitation programs funded by development partners has provided about US$1.35 billion for regional/national highways and other roads. This program should bring the major part of regional highway network up to a reasonably good condition by 2011, while the rehabilitation of the remaining road networks must also be ongoing in parallel.

As the rehabilitation of the regional highway network is completed by 2011-12, the annual maintenance requirement will be about US$72 million for the main (Regional + National) road network1. The most urgent issue is how to maintain the regional/ national highways being rehabilitated with these funding.

(2) Road Maintenance: Consequences of Neglect

Road may be a most significant public asset in many countries, and Afghanistan is no exception. Not preserving these valuable assets presents a significant loss to the country. The on-going road improvements bring immediate and drastic benefits to road users, but these benefits can be sustained only if a well-planned program of maintenance immediately follows the road improvements.

The postponement of road maintenance brings serious problems. If road repairs are carried out as soon as defects are detected, the work, and hence the cost required is usually relatively modest. If minor defects are neglected, it may lead to complete failure of a road section requiring full reconstruction, the costs of which can be as three times expensive, on average, as the avoided maintenance costs.

The function of maintenance is to preserve the asset, not to upgrade it, and it must be done on a regular basis. For management and operational convenience, road maintenance is categorized into routine, periodic and urgent/emergency maintenance.

Routine Maintenance comprises small scale or simple works carried out on a regular basis, aims to ensure the daily passability and safety of existing roads in the short-run and to prevent premature deterioration of the roads. The frequency of works may vary but it is typically as often as once or more per week/month. Typical activities include roadside verge clearing, grass cutting, cleaning silted ditches and culverts, patching and pothole repair. For gravel road it may include re-grading every 6 months or so.

Periodic Maintenance covers activities undertaken on a section of road at regular and relatively long intervals to preserve structural integrity of the roads. As these operations are normally large scale and need special equipment and skilled resources, they cost more money than routine maintenance. Examples are resealing and overlay

1 Sheladia Associates; Master Plan for Road Improvement Project; ADB TA No. 4371-AFG; First Interim Report,

May 2005

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The World Bank

works undertaken in response to measured deterioration in road conditions. For paved road this means repaving in about 5 to 8 years; for a gravel road this means re-gravelling about every 3 years or so.

Urgent/Emergency Maintenance is undertaken for repairs that cannot be foreseen but requires immediate attention. Examples include collapsed culverts or landslides that block a road, which are often caused by abnormal weather conditions.

(3) Maintenance Strategy: Force Account vs. Outsourcing

The possibility for implementing maintenance programs lies with a road owner, who should be competent in maintenance program management, have a good monitoring system in place and establish clear and transparent procedures for procurement. Maintenance options can be either outsourced to private organizations or in some cases carried out using force account (in-house units and equipment).

When force account is present, the road agencies may claim that is cheaper. However, the fundamental problem in force account road maintenance is the absolute lack of incentives for in-house units to properly maintain the asset. In recent years, it is an increasing worldwide tendency to shift maintenance works to the private sector, as contractors have proved more cost effective and efficient than in-house units, particularly in the developing world.

In some Asian countries (Indonesia/Bangladesh, for example) the road agencies take a mixed approach: routine maintenance performed by force account, the rest carried out by contracting. These countries are also gradually adopting more contracting, in search of better performance against inefficient in-house capability.

In Africa, road agencies are more quickly moving toward phasing out of force account and outsourcing of all the maintenance works. A good example can be seen in Lesotho, where the road agency had completely phased out the force account by 1997, and then it has been relying on local small-scale contractors in carrying out maintenance of rural roads. This practice has turned out to be cost effective and efficient, and has positively impacted on poverty alleviation through the generation of employment opportunities for 4,000 workers. During that period, the Contractor Training Program (currently under local financing) has trained 65 small-scale labor-based works contractors in both road maintenance and rehabilitation.2

In Latin America, the need for experienced contractors has not been an issue. Particularly for maintenance, the learning curve has been very fast and a system that combines micro-enterprises for routine maintenance and contractors for periodic maintenance was established in a short period of time. The equipment tools in the hands of the force account crews – and the crews themselves – can be recognized to become contractors, with some training and supervision.

(4) Options for Sustainable Road Maintenance: Types of Maintenance Contract

When outsourcing maintenance works, there are many variations in the types of contract. However, in the recent worldwide practices it can be largely categorized into two typical types of contracts: “Traditional” Measurement Contract, and Performance-based Contract.

“Traditional” Measurement Contract is based on a schedule of unit prices and estimates of quantities. The works to be performed are specified in the contract, and

2 Subhash C. Seth; Africa Transport Technical Note: SSATP Note 36, Training of Small Scale Contractors for Rural

Road Maintenance in Lesotho, The World Bank, March 2004

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The World Bank

payments are based on the “input” - executed measured works. This is suitable for routine/periodic maintenance as well as rehabilitation or other construction works. This modality generally brings improvement over force account maintenance practices. For maintenance contracts, a problem lies that the contractor has the wrong incentive, which is to try to carry out the maximum amount of works, in order to maximize its turnover and profits.

Performance-based Contract is managed based on the minimum conditions of road, bridges and traffic assets that the contractor manages to comply with the performance standards defined in the contract. The contractor is paid on a monthly period and payment is based on the outcomes of the contractor’s performance, not on the “input” - the amount of works executed. The nature of this type of contract allocates responsibility for work selection, design, and delivery solely to the contractor. Hence, the choice and application of technology and the pursuit of innovation in materials, processes and management are up to the contractor. If the performance standards are not achieved/maintained, deductions are made from the contract payment. It needs a certain level of knowledge at the employer side for established transparent checking and auditing procedures for wide and expanded applications.

2. The Proposal: For Implementation and Funding Arrangements

(1) Road Maintenance Requirements and Issues in Afghanistan

As emergency rehabilitations of primary highways are being completed, the post-rehabilitation maintenance is becoming a major issue in the Afghan road sector. The current critical issues for road maintenance in Afghanistan are summarized as follows:

High Construction Cost: A lesson learned from the recent development works in the Afghan road sector is the high construction costs caused by the security situation and necessity of involving international contractors in most of the projects due to the lack of capable local road contractors. This is a cause of reluctance for the government to actively move toward private sector oriented maintenance operations.

Lack of Capacity (both Private & Public): The country at present does not have a well-developed contracting industry. This means that there is a need for the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) to maintain certain level of force account capacity for the time being to perform at least routine and emergency road maintenance to supplement the capacity of the private contractor. However, the lack of manpower/equipment/ financial capability of MPW clearly shows a necessity of private sector involvement quickly. Maintenance management needs to address how to (i) conduct annual network-level surveys, (ii) perform network-level strategic and program analyses for prioritization, and (iii) develop annual and multi-year rolling maintenance plans.

Incapable Financing: Cost recovery and financing of road maintenance is currently the most critical issue in the Afghan road sector. When it is difficult to maintain sustainable maintenance funding from the government’s ordinary revenue fund, main possible methods for road maintenance financing are direct toll collection, some form of access charges, or road user charges (surcharge on fuel and vehicles) application. In the Afghanistan context, it has been widely recommended that toll revenues be used to finance routine maintenance for roads with completed rehabilitation for the short-term and urgent measures, and it be financed by comprehensive road user charges in the medium-term, whether it will be earmarked or not.3

3 For more detailed discussion on Road Sector Financing, reference should be made to: Policy Paper 2.4: Financing

of the Road Sector, Transport Sector Review, Final Report; MOT/MPW/MOCAT/ARDS; Jan. 2004

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The World Bank

(2) Road Maintenance Strategy: Hybrid Approach

Considering the on-going requirements and constraints for road maintenance, a straightforward measure, either fully sustaining force account or fully outsourcing to private sector immediately, is a difficult option. It is therefore necessary that parallel measures for “hybrid approach” are required to satisfy urgent needs, thus move toward the desired development goal, which is, highly private sector oriented efficient road maintenance system. These measures are:

(a) Trying to build longer lasting roads (higher initial strength), while donor funds support development more easily, so that maintenance burden will be lessened,

(b) Maintaining limited force account maintenance workforce with necessary equipment to maintain the primary roads which cannot be covered under (c) and (d) for the next 5-7 years,

(c) Supporting private sector (local contracting industry) development as soon as possible for more economical and sustainable maintenance during the next 3-7 years.

Force account: The World Bank financed Emergency Transport Rehabilitation Project (ETRP) has been partly supporting measure (b) by supplying winter maintenance equipment for the Salang Pass in its original credit, and by financing US$2.0 maintenance equipment for northern regions (Kunduz and additionally Mazar-i-Sharif) in its supplemental grant (the specifications are currently under discussion). Other development partners have also partly supported maintenance equipment provisions. The MPW needs to make full use of such equipment for the immediate force account routine and emergency maintenance requirement.

However, the force account arrangement should be transitional while the capacity of domestic private contractors is developed. Thus, it is important that the government’s policy contain explicit objective of gradually phasing out force account work in 5 to 7 years. There is a need to ensure that Afghanistan does not make the mistakes that other countries have made with force account. It should therefore be ensured that:

- There will be no permanent laborers employed - all labor should be made on a daily basis, so that there is no question of payment if funding falls,

- Labor is based, as far as possible, on piece rate rather than time rate

- Use will be made of individual contractors, the so-called the lengthworker approach4, for basic activities such as ditch/culvert cleaning, vegetation control, etc.

For a smooth transition to the private sector at a later stage, the permanently employed staff should be minimal so as to minimize resistance to moving to the private sector.

Urgent outsourcing: However, there are urgent necessities in some critical road sections. The most critical road section is Jabal os Saraj – Khenjan Section (82.7 km) including the Salang Pass with a major tunnel at a 3,400 m altitude at the highest point. The 2004-05 winter was the first winter after the Salang Tunnel rehabilitation was completed, but the winter maintenance (snow removal and deicing) was not fully efficient by the MPW force account, even partly supported by the rehabilitation contractors of adjacent sections. The 2005-06 winter will be the first

4 A lengthworker is one person who is contracted to carry out routine maintenance of a 1-2 km road section. He

usually lives alongside the allocated length of road and is often supplied with tools and regularly provided with materials.

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The World Bank

winter that all the contractors in Kabul – Doshi rehabilitation works will be gone, and it definitely requires a special arrangement with maintenance contracts especially for the Salang Pass winter maintenance. It is strongly suggested that the maintenance of this Jabal os Salaj – Khenjan Section be outsourced before the 2005-06 winter season.

Private sector development: In order to support the most critical task of developing local maintenance contractors and gradually shifting maintenance works from force account to outsourcing to these local contractors, it is proposed to create a Post-emergency Road Maintenance Project with a possible IDA finance. The project would aim to achieve efficient and cost effective road maintenance and positive impact on poverty reduction by promoting employment generation for local contracting market. The project could include, but not limited to:

(a) Support for preparing a medium-term (5-10 years) Road Maintenance Master Plan (RMMP), based on the results of the on-going Road Improvement Master Plan funded by the ADB1, for technical, schedule and sustainable financial plans for Afghan Regional & National Road Network,

(b) Finance road maintenance works for selected national road rehabilitation sections for 3-5 year transition period toward local financing based on the RMMP,

(c) Support for creating an Afghan Contractor Training Program (ACTP) for capacity building for local contracting industry including:

- Providing training for bid/contract documentation and management, - Providing on-the-job training for labor-based works methods, - Providing financial support by revolving fund or access to credit facilities, - Providing favorable measures and contract support for new micro-enterprises

(d) Establish simplified procedures for inviting bids, issuing contracts and making payments,

(e) Support for creating a sustainable road inventory system in the MPW,

(f) Strengthen road maintenance planning and management capacity for MPW, including creation of dedicated Road Asset Management Directorate and setting up of a road asset management system, if necessary.

(g) Strengthen ACTP management capacity for MPW including evaluation of contractors’ performance,

(h) Support for MPW to allow contractors easy access to MPW-owned equipment for hire/leasing arrangement.

The maintenance works contracts can be traditional measurement contract, area maintenance contract, or performance-based contract. However, it is necessary to begin with simple traditional measurement contracts, which can be gradually transferred to performance-based contracts as the contractors gain experience and the employer becomes mature.

(3) Funding Options and Strategy

The Government will have to address the issue of how to ensure adequate funding for road maintenance in near future, no matter what temporary financial arrangement can be done with development partners. This is because road maintenance is a recurrent cost, and without funding daily recurrent needs, the country can never be financially sustainable.

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The World Bank

Road User Charges: Most countries finance road maintenance by way of appropriations form the government’s central revenue fund. It is widely recognized that Road User Charges are a source of revenue to be utilized for road maintenance. Road users normally pay various taxes on vehicle and fuel. Since these Road User Charges are directly related to vehicle usage, there is an argument to earmark these road user charges for road maintenance, in some cases new construction, to ensure sustainable finance for maintenance of all the levels of road infrastructure.

The current situation in Afghanistan is that road users pay no specific taxes on vehicles or fuel. The immediate possibility of fuel surcharge seems very limited, as there is no petroleum company to systematically import fuel. Fuel is individually imported from neighboring countries, and the government does not have full control of imports. A proposal for fuel surcharge was submitted to the cabinet some time back, which was rejected.

Given that fuel has to cross the border and most things that cross the border are subject to customs control and duties, and in view of the government’s weak financial situation, taxing on fuel for general revenue purposes, let alone road maintenance, is a critical issue.

Toll Financing: As a more direct and immediate possible funding measure for road maintenance, toll collection is widely discussed. A working group in the Transport Sector Consultative Group (CG-TS) is discussing possible options for toll financing for road maintenance. While it is difficult to expect secure road maintenance funding from the government’s central revenue fund, toll financing for individual or comprehensive road network seems to be an immediate solution for sustainable funding.

While more comprehensive toll collection for road maintenance funding is an important option, it is necessary to initiate toll collection for urgent individual maintenance needs immediately. It is recommended that toll collection for funding maintenance needs for sections such as Jabal os Saraj – Khenjan or Kabul Kandahar be immediately implemented as a project basis.

Annual Road Access Charge: Another direct and immediate possible funding measure would be an annual road access charge, which is a license fee, against which a sticker is normally displayed on every vehicle. Such annual charges could be different for heavy and light vehicles, and they could be sold at gas station or border crossings. This can be a first step in a cost recovery scheme which can raise the part of maintenance costs that are not distance related.

3. The Way Forward: Recommendations for Action Plan

To meet the immediate requirement for road maintenance discussed above, the following immediate actions are recommended.

(1) Needs for Government’s Decision and Policy Announcement

There should be a clear government decision and policy announcement about its planned approach and implementing arrangement for road maintenance based on a medium-term road maintenance plan. Then different development partners may offer to fund a slice of the program. The World Bank can offer, if the government so desires, to take a lead in working with the government to develop such a plan, and support the government’s role in coordinating with other partners. Once the government reviews the proposal and agrees, the World Bank can help develop a donor coordination to agree on a sector approach to maintenance of national highways.

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The World Bank

(2) Preparation for Maintenance Contract for Jabal os Saraj – Khenjan Section

While it may take time to agree on a national policy on road maintenance, the proposed maintenance contract for Jabal os Saraj – Khenjan Section should be framed immediately so that it may go forward while other things are under discussion.

To meet the requirement of deploying a maintenance contractor for Jabal os Saraj – Khenjan Section before the 2005-06 winter, it is recommended that the preparation be initiated immediately. The preparation of bidding document could be performed by the supervision consultant for the on-going Kabul – Doshi rehabilitation contracts on a sole-source basis, and could be funded by the on-going ETRP project.

There are several alternatives for contracting method. One option could be to use a management contract with a consulting firm/NGO as has been used in part of ETRP. Another option could be a performance-based contract. In this case, however, setting a performance standard and using an international contractor and consultant would be required.

(3) Enhancement of Toll Collection and/or Annual Road Access Charge Arrangement for More Comprehensive Maintenance Funding

The on-going CG-TS discussions on toll collection arrangement should be formalized for more comprehensive maintenance funding for short-term needs. These discussions can include possibility of annual road access charge, toll collection arrangements such as toll levels, applicable routes and areas, financial viability, collection methods, and others. It should be envisaged as an alternative funding vehicle until the Ministry of Finance (MOF) establishes sustainable road user charge collection.

(4) Preparation for Proposed Post-emergency Road Maintenance Project with a Possible IDA Finance

If the proposed Post-emergency Road Maintenance Project can be agreed with the MPW and MOF, the preparation between the World Bank and the Government can be initiated for aiming to deliver the project by the end of the ETRP implementation.

(5) Establishment of Fuel Surcharge and Vehicle Registration Tax Collection

There is a continuing argument to support an earmarked Road Fund. There are many issues for creating an earmarked Road Fund, but even though it is not possible to directly earmark the road user charges for road maintenance, the systematic collection of road user charges is absolutely necessary to secure one of the most important government revenue sources, which eventually contribute to the secured funding for road maintenance.

For example, assuming average annual mileage and fuel consumption, the whole vehicle fleet would consume about 796 million liters of fuel per year. At the current price of US$0.35 per litter, a 30-35% fuel surcharge (about US$0.1 per litter) would be sufficient to collect the US$79.6 million. The income from vehicle registration fees is estimated about US$3.4 million, which totals US$84 million for the estimated total revenue from fuel surcharge and vehicle registration fees1. This is more than required amount to maintain the regional/national road network (US$72 million). It is therefore critical to establish tax collection system for fuel surcharge and vehicle registration tax under an initiative of the Ministry of Finance.

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