add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising IMPLICATIONS Module WP8- SERVICES WP9- SOCIOECONOMICS WP10- VALUATION ICRA Dr. Vicen Acua ATHENA RC Prof. Phoebe Koundouri ALTERRA Dr. Philippe Ker Rault add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising IMPLICATIONS Your logo here! 2 add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising IMPLICATIONS WP8 add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP8 Progress report ICRA Vicenc Acuna add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising By month 24 (Feb 2016), we must deliver biophysical estimates of 4 freshwater ecosystem services: water provisioning, erosion control, waste treatment, habitat for species. We use the InVEST model to quantify these services, and we would like the estimates to be comparable from basin to basin, and therefore try to use datasets available at the European scale. We have completed the calculations for the selected services under current conditions (sub-deliverable 8.1). A summary of the obtained results and perspectives is presented here. add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Using InVEST, we have quantified the following services under current conditions: -Water provisioning: Ebro, Sava, and Adige. -Erosion control: Ebro, Sava, and Adige. -Waste treatment: Ebro, Sava, and Adige. -Habitat quality: Ebro, Sava, Adige, and Evrotas. Furthermore, we have quantified under different scenarios of climate change and irrigation development, the following services: -Habitat quality: Ebro, Sava, Adige, and Evrotas. In the future (months 40-45), we will use the InVEST and the scenarios developed in the GLOBAQUA project to estimate the previously mentioned services under different scenarios (follow up of task 8.1). Also in the future (months 24-52), we will develop integrative mechanistic models for ecosystem services at the river segment scale. add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Water provisioning Calibration points and errors Predicted versus observed values add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Water provisioning Adige in provisional sub- basins add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Erosion control Calibration points and errors Predicted versus observed values add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Erosion control Adige in provisional sub- basins add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Waste treatment (water purification), as TN and TP removal Calibration points and errors Predicted versus observed values add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Waste treatment (water purification), as TN and TP removal Adige in provisional sub- basins add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Habitat quality Maximum distance of affectation Threat weights See presentation by Terrado for further information on habitat quality add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Habitat quality Terrestrial Aquatic add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising IMPLICATIONS WP9 add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP9 Progress Report ATHENA RC Prof. Phoebe Koundouri Ioannis Souliotis add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising D9.1. Development of an Integrated Methodology for the Sustainable Environmental and Socioeconomic Management of the Water Resources Ecosystem Services (month 12) (ATHENA) D9.2. Integration of the GARB-specific results of STEPS 1A and 1B of the implementation of the WFD: Integrating the results on the assessment of the importance of water resources ecosystem services to the economy and socio- economic development of the GARBs and relevant socio=economic scenarios (month 24) (LMU) D9.3. Integration of the GARB-specific results of STEP 2 of the implementation of the WFD: Assessment of the current levels of recovery of the costs of water resources ecosystem services and development of the package of socioeconomic measures for achieving full-cost recovery (month 48) (ALTERRA) D9.4. Integration of the results of STEP 3 of the implementation of the WFD in GA RB: Economic Assessment of Programmes of Measures (Cost- Effectiveness) and Disproportionality Analysis to justify any derogations (Cost Benefit Analysis) (month 60) (ATHENA) Deliverables add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Progress since Interim Report until today Deliverable 9.2 Integration of the GARB-specific results of STEPS 1A and 1B of the implementation of the WFD: Integrating the results on the assessment of the importance of water resources ecosystem services to the economy and socio-economic development of the GARBs and relevant socio=economic scenarios (month 24) (LMU) A.Task 9.2 STEP 1A: Assessment of the importance of freshwater ecosystem services to the economy and socio-economic development of the GARBs under the status quo (1-12) (ATHENA) Finalized -RB profile data ( current status) -Water uses (by sector and source) and land uses -Residential statistics/ Non-residential statistics ( industrial, agricultural, tourism sectors) etc.. add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Task 9.3. Step 1B Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES) B. Task 9.3. STEP 1B: Building socio-economic scenarios (12-24) Responsible partner: 8-LMU, other participants: 6-ALTERRA, 9- ATHENA, 20-IES-JRC, 6 CASE-STUDY LEADERS 1.Specify and quantify a socio-economic reference scenario (based on Task.9.2.) 2.Additional scenarios (already developed) to capture the main uncertainties. 3.Investigate changes in the social values! add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Task 9.3. Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES) ScenarioSSPRCPCharacteristics Myopic (GA + IM + MARS) 58.5Extreme scenario. Fossil fuel driver world. Fast growing economies at the expense of environmental degradation. Physical capital substitutes natural capital. Myopic regulation. Adaptation (GA + IM) 44.5Strong division between groups (intra/internationally). Environmental policies focus on local issues. Middle of the road (GA + MARS) 24.5Most economic parameters are growing at the 25 year average. Governments are concerned about degraded ecosystems. Small degree of international cooperation. Sustainable (GA + IM) 14.5Extreme scenario. GDP is growing at a fast rate. Fossil fuels are used less and less Environmental sustainability is a priority. High degree of cooperation. add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Task 9.3. Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES) YearGrowth rate in Adige case study Growth rate, Italy Ratio ,900,250,04 :::: 20125,02-2,87-0,57 Average0,34 Information derived from Task 9.2. Difference between the CS and the country. YearGrowth rate in Adige case study Growth rate, Italy ::: 20605,281,77 Average OECD projections Adige: Baseline Scenario add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Task 9.3. Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES) Adige: Socieoconomic Scenarios YearGDP growth rate Italy SSP1, IIASA GDP growth rate, Adige RB GDP growth rate italy SSP1, OECD GDP growth rater, Adige RB 20204,1412,351,414,19 ::::: 20800,471,400,822, ,451,350,661,97 SSP1:Sustainable Information is taken from the SSP Database developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The database includes the results of two models. add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Investigate changes in the social values How will the provision of ES will change under each scenario? Identify the benefits.Choose the most appropriate method Benefits Valuation Metric Ecosystem Services Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES)- Economic valuation add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Currently: 1.Valuing ES of Ebro and Adige River Basins. Value transfer approach (cost-effective method). 2.Preparing 2 Choice Experiments to assess individuals WTP for ES under selected scenarios: a)Evrotas Training a team of 5 people that will implement the survey (regular sessions). Preparing the questionnaire. Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES)- Economic valuation add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising a)Sava January Aim: Value changes in welfare, due to changes in the status of the RB (based on hypothetical scenarios): Implementation in 4-5 areas (borders between countries). Do cultural characteristics play any role? How does risk aversion affect value of ES? Preparing the questionnaire. Collaboration with economists from EAWAG, Zrich ( participation with own budget). Strong communication with Radmila and her team. Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES)- Economic valuation add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES)- Economic valuation Choice Experiment-Sava add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising Building up socioeconomic scenarios (LMU, ALTERRA, ATHENA, JRC-IES)- Economic valuation Choice Experiment-Sava AttributeAlternative AAlternative BCurrent Status Floods frequency 5 years 25 years 50 years 100 years Water provision (Human health) Cooking Drinking Irrigation Waste treatment (nitrates) Picture 1,2,3 Erosion protection Picture 1, 2, 3 Species (habitat for species) Picture 1, 2, 3 PricePrice 1, 2,3,4 add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising IMPLICATIONS WP10 add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP10 Progress Report ALTERRA Philippe Ker Rault Joke Luttik add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP 10 Valuation Philippe Ker Rault, Joke Luttik Greek and Dutch partners to prepare the Stakeholder workshop (Sparta, February 2015) Stakeholder workshops Complete the first round of stakeholder workshops in the case study areas to elicit values of ecosystem services and to discuss Globaqua scenarios. Stakeholder workshops have now been held in Evrotas, Adige, Souss Massa, Anglian RB & Ebro. We are preparing the Sava workshop which will take place in February add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP 10 Valuation Stakeholder workshops output. For each Globaqua case study area we have: A list of relevant ecosystem services A ranking of these ecosystem services in terms of importance A stakeholders assessment of the importance of these ecosystem services for different actors, at different scale levels A stakeholders assessment of the extent to which ecosystem services are under threat A stakeholders assessment of the potential of ecosystem services to contribute to local prosperity in the region add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP 10 Valuation Stakeholder workshops output. For each Globaqua case study area we have: Stakeholder comments on 2 Globaqua scenarios: MYOPIC and SUSTAINABLE (Understandable? Interesting? Relevant? Etc...) Stakeholder input on translation of scenarios to case study areas: expected change in variables in various domains (economy & society, energy, environment, water management, agriculture, recreation & tourism, residential, policies) This will be used to further specify the scenarios for the case study areas add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP 10 Valuation Preliminary valuation Has been completed for all 6 case study areas (D 10.2) Starting point land use maps and data collected in WP9 Additional information from other sources, in particular valuation studies from regions in or close to our case study areas A first exploration of changes in ecosystem services value in 2 scenarios (Myopic and Sustainable) add your Logo in the slide master menu GLOBAQUA Meeting, January 13th-14th, Freising WP 10 Valuation Preliminary valuation (D 10.2) Results: Rough estimates to indicate direction of change and order of magnitude We looked at water use for residents, timber production, erosion control, carbon sequestration, recreation and tourism In Myopic pressures are likely to cause a decline in water availability and quality, in landscape-recreational value, carbon fixing value and the erosion protection, while value from timber production will increase. In Sustainable a more sustainable use of resources is likely to sustain erosion protection, carbon fixing and landscape recreational value, while increasing water use values. The results will be refined later, when the scenarios are further developed, more interaction with stakeholders will take place and results from other work packages become available.