adf-14 resource allocation framework · country pbas by aidi quintiles avg. 2011–13 aidi...
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![Page 1: ADF-14 Resource Allocation Framework · Country PBAs by AIDI Quintiles Avg. 2011–13 AIDI Quintiles Impact of the AIDI under ADF-13 50.2 16.5 12.6 15.1 5.6 First Quintile Second](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042802/5f3d7ec6618d084294056c0e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ADF-14 Second
Replenishment MeetingJune – July, 2016
Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
ADF-14 Resource Allocation
Framework
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Allocated Resources under ADF-13
2
Central
663East
1,695North
25South
309West
1,634
Allocation by Regions (in UA million)*
Central15%
East39%
North1%
South7%
West38%
Share, by Regions*
* Resources allocated through the PBA, the Pillar I of the TSF, and approved regional operations
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3
ADF-13 Resource Utilization Rate
165
393
591
1,046
2 976
71%
84%
64%
PSF
TSF Pillar II
TSF Pillar I
RO
PBA
As at May 17, 2016
UA 2,017 MillionBalance available for
commitment
Fully Prioritized
UA Million
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CPIA/PBA – Adjustments under ADF-13
4
Performance
Addition of a New Cluster E
to the CPIA Questionnaire
Infrastructure Development
Regional Integration
Country
Performance
Assessment
Greater
weight
(Larger
Exponent)
Needs
Minimum
Allocation
5
15
AIDI in the PBA Formula
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No CPIA Distortion because of Cluster E
5
3.35
3.48
3.513.52
3.54
3.50
3.54
3.51
3.53 3.53
3.473.48 3.48
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Avg. Cluster A to D
Avg. Cluster A to E
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Country PBAs under ADF-13
6
19.4
21.8
13.0
16.9
28.9
FirstQuintile
SecondQuintile
ThirdQuintile
FourthQuintile
FifthQuintile
Country PBAs by AIDI QuintilesAvg. 2011–13 AIDI Quintiles
Impact of the AIDI under ADF-13
50.2
16.512.6
15.1
5.6
FirstQuintile
SecondQuintile
ThirdQuintile
FourthQuintile
FifthQuintile
Country PBAs by CPIA QuintilesAvg. 2013–15 CPIA (A – E) Quintiles
Performance Remains the Bedrock
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Move to a Biennial CPIA
7
Help Streamline the CPIA Process
… give the Bank and RMCs a clearer picture of the CPIA
CPIA scores DO NOT change a lot in one year
3.47 3.48 3.48
3
4
CPIA Avg. A to E
Africa
2013 2014 2015
3.40 3.41 3.39
3
4
CPIA Avg. A to E
ADF Countries
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Addressing Fragility in the PBA Formula
8
Input Data Same as ADF-13
Envelopes PBA PBA plus TSF
Scenario 1: Exp. (+0.5)
Scenario 2: Exp. (+1.0)
Scenario 3: Exp. (+1.5)
Scenario 1: Exp. (–0.5).
Scenario 2: Exp. (–1.0)
Scenario 3: Exp. (–1.5)
Fragility
Indices
State
Fragility
Index (SFI)
ND-GAIN
Option 1: SFI Only
Option 2: ND-GAIN Only
Option 3: ND-GAIN and SFI
Explored
Options
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Keeping the PBA formula Unchanged
1.481.57 1.53
1.63
0.98
1.091.05
1.17
Baseline Option 1SFI Only
Option 2ND-GAIN Only
Option 3SFI & ND-GAIN
9
TSF e
nvelo
pe
TSF e
nvelo
pe
TSF e
nvelo
pe
TSF e
nvelo
pe
PBA + TSF envelopesPBA envelope
Keep the current formula
… adding a fragility component to the PBA formula would not scale-up resources to countries
experiencing fragility
UA Billion
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Tradeoff between Set-Asides and CDLs
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
2 200 2 300 2 400 2 500 2 600 2 700 2 800 2 900 3 000
CD
Ls (U
A m
illio
n)
Set-Asides (UA million)
10
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Proposed Eligibility to TSF
11
Eligible for TSF
Pillar I (15)
Burundi
Central African Rep.
Chad
Comoros
Congo Democratic Rep.
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Madagascar
Mali
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan
Togo
Zimbabwe
Eligible for TSF
Pillar III (17)
Eritrea Gambia
Qualitative
Assessments (3)
Guinea
Malawi
Niger
Exit (1) Côte d’Ivoire
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The TSF Envelopes
12
572
3060
534
10% 15% 2060
Pillar I Pillar II Pillar III
Pillars’ Envelopes(Baseline Scenario – UA Million)
ADF-13 ADF-14 Proposal
1,384
1,786
PBA + TSF Pillar I
Côte d’Ivoire
Guinea
Resources to TSF Countries (Baseline Scenario – UA Million)
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TSF Pillar I Calculation
25
15
10
60
60
13
35
60
60
15
11
22
60
40
45
41
Burundi
Central African Rep.
Chad
Comoros
Congo Democratic Rep.
Cote d'Ivoire
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Madagascar
Mali
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan
Togo
Zimbabwe
Unallocated Reserve
13UA Million
Country allocations as agreed
under ADF-13 discussions
15 Countries = UA 572 million
26
10
60
10
60
10
17
60
60
12
10
19
60
16
24
80
Proposed country allocations
for ADF-14
15 Countries = UA 534 million
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RO – Proposal for ADF-14
14
• Maintain the RO Envelope at 21% of Resources
Available UA 1,388 million expected under the baseline scenario
(UA 1,046 million under ADF-13)
• Reduce the RO Contribution Leveraging Ceiling Eligible to TSF: From 1:2 To 1:1.5
Not Eligible to TSF: From 1:1.5 To 1:1
Reduce the number of postponed regional operations
ADF-14
PBA
1
RO
1.5
PBA
1
RO
1
Eligible
for the TSF
Not Eligible
for the TSF
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Scaling UP the PSF for ADF-14
15
ADF-13
40%PSF’s exposure
capacity allocated
15ADB private sector
transactions approved
Higherrisk return operation in
fragile situations
Reachingunder-served sectors
through private sector
UA 200 million
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Excepted Envelopes for ADF-14Under the Baseline Scenario of UA 7 Billion
16
3,109
1,046
662
165
4,408
1,388
614
200
PBA RO TSF PSF
UA Million
ADF-13 ADF-14 (Baseline)
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Excepted Allocations for ADF-14Under the Baseline Scenario of UA 7 Billion
17
2,187
1,046
1,384
165
3,091
1,388
1,786
200
PBA (Excl. NonFragile Situations)
RO TSF Pillar I + PBA(Fragile Situations)
PSF
UA Million
ADF-13 ADF-14 (Baseline)
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18
Recommendations
• Undertake the CPIA exercise every two years
• Keep the current PBA formula unchanged
• Increase the unused reserve of the TSF Pillar I from 10% to 15%
• UA 20 million to Pillar II of the TSF
• RO envelope at 21%
• Reduce the RO contribution leveraging ceiling
• UA 200 million to PSF
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19Thank You