adm germany market review 2014 07
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Market Review July 2014
10 Years after the EU Accession –What has changed in the Agricultural
Sector in the Central and Eastern
European Member States?
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Grain 3
Oilseeds/Oilmeals 4
Other Feedstuffs 4
Germany 5
10 Years after the EU Accession – What has changed
in the Agricultural Sector in the Central and Eastern
European Member States? 6
Table 1: World Crop Production 11
Table 2: Wheat Trade 12
Table 3: Corn Trade 12
Table 4: Barley Trade 12
Table 5: Soybean Trade 12
Table 6: Rapeseed Trade 12
Table 7: EU-28 Grain Production 13
Table 8: EU-28 Oilseed Production 14
Table 9: EU-28 Export and Import Commitments 15
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Grain
EU Maize: Weather conditions in the EU are
ideal for crop development. The wheat quality
problems expected in France are weighing
heavily on the prices for maize as the feed
wheat price is undercutting the maize prices
which might push maize out of the feed mix-
tures. However, new-crop maize prices are
already even partly reaching levels below the
production costs. The farmers’ willingness to
sell is very low currently.
EU Wheat: In July, quotations on the Matiffor the November contract stood at between
176 and 186 €/t. Harvest volumes in the
Black Sea region and northern Europe are
said to be very good. As regards the quality,
however, the protein content is lower. This is
the reason why brisk trading activity has been
noted recently in Germany and Poland on the
market for wheat with a protein content of
11.0%. As falling numbers in France will pre-
sumably be very low, a substantial part of the
quantities that were originally planned to be
exported to Algeria are not likely to be exe-
cuted. This is supporting the German and
Polish market for wheat with a 11% protein
content. Thus it is assumed that, due to its
lower availability, high-quality wheat can eas-
ily be marketed. CIF prices in the Netherlands
have come under extreme pressure due to the
large feed wheat quantities available in
France. It is therefore to be expected that feed
wheat will be much more used for compound
feed production than other protein sources.
EU Malting Barley: In France, the winter
barley harvest is completed. Yields as well as
quantities are better than expected. Up to
now, also one third of the spring barley has
been harvested in France. So far, the quality is
said to be satisfactory, although partially the
protein content seems to be below average,
and only some isolated cases of sprouting
have been reported. In Scandinavia and the
United Kingdom, the harvest will begin a bit
earlier than usual and should progress well,
provided no more heavy precipitation will
occur. Malting barley prices continue to fol-
low the downturn in the price level noted in
the whole grain complex and they are current-
ly the lowest worldwide. This makes EU
malting barley exports to third countries very
likely. The new crop in 2015 is increasingly
attracting some buying interest but offers are
scarce.
International Malting Barley: In Argentina,
seeding is still delayed and a new estimate
puts the acreage only at 920,000 ha compared
to the 1.27 mln ha planted last year. The op-
timal time for planting will already end in
about two weeks. In Canada, the acreage was
reduced by 14% due to delayed sowings. In
Australia, the impact of the El Nino weather
phenomenon will be weaker than initially ex-
pected. The crops there had a good start and
harvest prospects are good so far. There is
still continued demand from China and the
country has already covered its needs for the
autumn months with French winter malting
barley.
EU Feed Barley: Since the beginning of this
month, prices in the EU have declined further.
Only a few exports to northwestern Europe
have been reported due to very competitive
prices in the Black Sea region. New demand
from third countries currently concentrates on
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later delivery dates. The harvest prospects on
the southern hemisphere should then play an
important role for the future development of
the prices.
Oilseeds/Oilmeals
Rapeseed Meal: The demand for old-crop
goods is fully covered now and the last logis-
tical problems are solved. The last remaining
old-crop quantities are offered at lower prices,
meaning slightly more than 200 €/t. The mar-
ket is more and more concentrating on the
autumn months. Due to the expected verygood rapeseed harvest and the related pres-
sure on the quotations on the Matif, prices
have declined by about 18-19 €/t to around
185 €/t within the first three weeks of July for
delivery between November and January. In
the past few days, however, prices have
firmed a bit by about 10 €/t. The prices for
delivery in August to October 2014 and for
later delivery in 2015 are around 4 €/t lower
than those for the November-January period.
Prices of 190-195 €/t are generating some
buying interest. Crush margins are not attrac-
tive for the most part. In general, the market is
dominated by uncertainty due to the volatility
noted on the exchanges, and only a limited
number of quantities are traded. In the desti-
nation countries, demand has risen slightly.
Especially in Spain, consumers have made
first purchases. There are still offers from theBlack Sea region trying to arouse some buy-
ing interest.
Sunseed Meal: The market remains calm.
The price decline noted in June has thus also
continued over the month of July. Goods from
the Black Sea region are priced at approxi-
mately 227-235 USD/t. Buying interest is still
very low. Offers, on the other hand, are like-
wise quite rare. Stocks in the destination
countries like Italy and France continue to be
high and consumers have covered their needs
to a sufficient extent.
Other Feedstuffs
Palmkernel Expellers: Due to the current price level and the developments on the other
feedstuff markets, palmkernel expellers are
not attractive for buyers, so that hardly any
sales were made in Europe over the course of
this month. The price level in the countries of
origin has decreased but also there only very
few quantities have been traded yet.
Citruspulp Pellets: Offers from Brazil arevery rare but demand is also low as the con-
sumers consider the prices to be not attractive
enough.
Beetpulp Pellets: Prices for old-crop goods
declined significantly in the EU although
supplies are low. On the international market,
quantities out of the old crop are still availa-
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ble at sharply reduced prices. Prices for the
new crop remain stable and sales are low.
Maize By-Products: The market is calm and
the price level is low. A few sporadic low-volume sales are reported.
Molasses: A few wagonloads of beet molas-
ses are being traded for delivery in Au-
gust/September. Buying interest for goods out
of the new campaign is only limited.
Glycerine: Due to declining prices, demand
from the animal feed industry has picked upslightly. The biodiesel industry has quite well
covered its demand already.
Germany
In most parts of Germany, the barley andrapeseed harvests are finished now. However,
the same cannot be said about the wheat har-
vest due to the extreme wet weather condi-
tions that were noted in some areas in the past
few weeks. Harvesting is thus likely to con-
tinue into August. So far, the yields of all
grains are considered to be good to very good,
in some regions even record yields have been
achieved. The quality, especially in the case
of wheat, is though not expected to be high
but to be much lower than in the previous
year. Recently, lodging of wheat has occurred
in many regions, caused by heavy thunder-
storms. Also sprouted grains have been ob-
served in some areas. In southern and central
Germany in particular, falling numbers show
relatively low levels. The same applies to the
protein content in some locations. Following
a wet and cold start into vegetation, the maize
plants now benefited from the recent hot and
humid weather. Thus, the maize crop is in
good condition in most regions.
At present, we expect this year’s grain pro-
duction in Germany to probably reach a new
record level of 48.5 – 49.5 (last year 47.4)
mln t, thereof wheat 25.7-26.3 (250) mln t,
barley 10.4 – 10.8 (10.4) mln t, rye 3.7-3.9(4.7) mln t and triticale 2.6-2.8 (2.6) mln t.
Rapeseed production is estimated at 5.9-6.1
(5.8) mln t and corn for grain production at
4.9-5.2 (4.1) mln t.
The German statistics office reports that
Germany exported 14.6 mln t of grain from
July 2013 to Mai 2014, which is up from the
12.4 mln t exported in the same period one
year earlier. Exports to other EU countriesreached 6.6 (7.8) mln t and to third countries
8.0 (4.6) mln t. Wheat exports stood at 9.7
(6.7) mln t, that of barley at 1.9 (1.8) mln t, of
rye at 337,805 (378,600) t, and of malt at
454,537 (418,700) t.
Grain imports totalled 9.1 (8.5) mln t, there-
of those from other EU countries 8.2 (7.8)
mln t and those from third countries 961,042
(704,500) t. The imports of wheat accounted
for 3.6 (3.4) mln t, those of barley for 1.0
(1.2) mln t, of oats for 316,600 (261,400) t, of
corn for 2.8 (1.9) mln t, of rye for 551,400
(317,600) t, and of malt for 224,200
(213,900) t.
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According to the Federal Office of Economics
and Export Control (Bundesamt f. Wirtschaft
u. Ausfuhrkontrolle), the use of gasoline in
Germany reached 7.5 mln t in January to May
2014 and thus exceeded the 7.4 mln t used in
the first five months of last year. The total
includes a bioethanol use of 487,000
(479,000) t. Total diesel use stood at 14.4
(13.7) mln t, including a biodiesel and vege-
table oil for fuel use of 933,000 (858,000) t.
The German statistics office reports that cat-
tle inventories reached 12.7 mln head as of
May 3, 2014, which is unchanged from the
number counted in November, but up from
the 12.6 mln head counted in May 2013. The
number of dairy cows stood at 4.31 (Novem-
ber 2012: 4.27; May 2012: 4.22) mln head.
Hog inventories stood at 28.1 (28.1; 27.7) mln
head including 2.07 (2.06; 2.05) mln sows.
10 Years after the EU Accession – What has changed inthe Agricultural Sector in the Central and Eastern European
Member States?
It is now more than ten years ago that 10 cen-
tral and eastern European countries (Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and
Cyprus) – further on called EU-10 - on May1, 2004 have joined the European Union
(EU). On top, Romania (2007), Bulgaria
(2007) and Croatia (2013) have since joined
creating the so-called EU-13. This section re-
volves around the economic and agricultural
changes in the central and eastern member
states during these 10 years.
Economy in the EU-10 has grown since ac-
cession took place. These 10 member states intotal had an annual average real GDP growth
rate of 2.4% between 2004 and 2013. This is
almost three times as much as the EU-15
growth rate of just 0.9%. The drop in eco-
nomic growth in course of the financial crisis
during 2009 was deeper in the EU-10 with -
7.4% (versus -3.9% in the EU-15). However,
recovery took place at a faster speed, too,
with Estonia (4.23%), Lithuania (3.65%),
Latvia (3.33%) and Poland (3.00%) having
strong average annual growth rates since
2010.
Another good indicator for economic growth
is the development of Foreign Direct In-
vestments (FDI). The inflows were increas-
ing substantially between 2008 and 2013, for
example in Estonia, the Czech Republic, Po-
land and Hungary by an annual average of
3.16%, 2.06%, 1.78%, and 1.30%, respective-
ly. In Germany, France and Italy, in contrast,
FDIs were decreasing in the same period by -
1.40%, -1.74%, and -1.12%, respectively.
Logistics remain a challenge in several central
and eastern member states. Efficient infra-
structure is important for positive industrial
and trade developments. In 2004, the motor-
way (highway) system in the EU-10 (EU-13)
states had a total length of 3,247 (4,731) km.
This was increased by 2,128 (2,989) km in the
time period 2004-2012, reaching totals of
5,375 (7,720) km. The two largest increases
came in Poland and Hungary with 813 km
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and 704 km, respectively. Romania more than
doubled its motorway system from 228 km to
550 km. In the EU-15, the total motorway
system is 63,000 km long and thus much
longer than in the central and eastern member
states.
Railroad is another important transport mode.
The largest extension of the rail network in
the EU-13 between 2004 and 2012 was in Es-
tonia (271km). No other EU-13 country ex-
tended its lines in that time period. Hungary
extended their network by 450 km between
2004 and 2006, but has since reduced and hasnow even less railroad km than in 2004. The
same is true for Latvia. The total change in
network length was a decrease of more than
1,000 km in the EU-13. The negative devel-
opment in some countries may be a result of
lines that have been shut and are currently
being upgraded. In 2012, the EU-13 railroad
network totalled 64,285 km, while that of the
EU-15 totalled 157,367 km.
The payments from the EU budget are an im-
portant factor for economic growth in the cen-
tral and eastern member states. Due to the no-
table differences with regard to economic
power compared to the western member states
almost all EU-13 countries (except Cyprus)
are net recipients. And the amount of money
they receive from the EU has steadily in-
creased since the accession took place. Be-tween 2004 and 2008 a total net of around 32
bln Euro was paid to the EU-13 out of the EU
budget. For the period between 2009 and
2012 this amount almost tripled to a net 87
bln Euro. The biggest net recipients were Po-
land (38 bln Euro), Hungary (13 bln Euro)
and the Czech Republic (8 bln Euro). The by
far biggest part of these payments refers to
agriculture (mainly direct payments) and rural
development.
The yearly rate of price increases (annual in-
flation rate) in the EU-10 has fallen sharplysince the accession and has stabilized at this
lower level in most member states. The infla-
tion in the EU-15 averaged 2.27% in 2002-
2004 and has decreased slightly to an average
of 2.19% (2011-2013). This represents a 4%
decrease. The EU-10 saw a relatively large
decrease of 15% from 3.28% (2002-2004) to
2.83% (2011-2013). There was however a
spike in inflation between 2005 and 2010.When including Romania, Bulgaria and Croa-
tia (EU-13), the decrease in the inflation rate
is even at 35%. This indicates great improve-
ments in economic stability. For example,
currently the yearly inflation rate in Poland
ranges between 1 and 4% against 8 – 10% in
the period 1995-2000.
Ahead of the accession, many western Euro-
pean farmers had feared that the EU expan-
sion would have adverse impacts on their ag-
ricultural business. They assumed that the
expected increases in productivity and pro-
duction cost benefits would result in cheaper
produced grain and oilseeds which could glut
the western European markets.
Wages are no reason for farmers’ fears if
productivity is high due to modern technolo-
gy. With regard to unit labour costs differ-
ences should then be small. Differences
among wages in the EU-15 and those in the
new member states are therefore not as im-
portant as many think when it comes to com-
petitiveness.
In large part, it is the farm structure that de-
termines competitiveness. According to the
statistics service Eurostat, this structure has
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not changed a lot between 2005 and 2010
(more recent data are not available in this re-
spect). Around 91% of all EU-13 farms with
agricultural land were smaller than 10 ha in
2010. In Romania, which makes up for more
than half of the total farm number of the EU-
13, almost 98% of all farms are smaller than
10 ha. Especially in these small farms it is
almost impossible zu increase productivity.
Improvements can only be achieved if farm
size increases in the course of structural
change. And since farming is the only income
source for many people in the country side,
structural change takes place only very slow-
ly. However, there are some countries, in
which structural change is occurring more
rapidly than in Romania and where farm size
is increasing. In Poland, though being still a
country with many small farms, the share of
farms with less than 10 ha has decreased from
85% in 2005 to 77% in 2010. In Bulgaria, this
share has decreased from 94% to 71%. Ac-
cording to Eurostat, these smaller farms withless than 10 ha manage only around 25% of
the total agricultural area in the EU-13. Ap-
proximately 75% are run by bigger (partly
much bigger) farms that make up for only 9%
of the total farm number in the EU-13, but
should be able to increase its productivity rap-
idly in contrast to the small farms.
Although structural change is taking place
only slowly in some areas, agriculture in the
EU-13 has become more productive over the
past 10 years. This is not at least demonstrat-
ed by cultivation patterns and yield develop-
ment. Farmers have tended to change their
crop rotation towards more intensive crops.
The wheat area in the EU-13, for example,
has increased from 7.8 mln ha in 2004 to 9.1
mln ha in 2013. This is a plus of 17%. Wheat
yields have increased by 16% from 3.51 t/ha
for the average of 2003 to 2006 to 4.06 t/ha
for the average of 2010 to 2013. Similar de-
velopments occurred in the case of winter bar-
ley, for which yields increased by 23 % on an
almost unchanged area. The rapeseed area has
heavily increased between 2004 and 2009.
During that period the acreage doubled from
1.3 mln ha to 2.5 mln ha on the back of ever
rising rapeoil needs from the biodiesel indus-
try. However, since EU biodiesel production
is not increasing anymore and other feed-
stocks than rapeoil are used more frequently,
the rapeseed area in the EU-13 has stagnated.
It is now still at the level of 2009. The same is
true for yields: The average of the years 2003-
2006 was at 2.25 t/ha, increasing to 2.46 t/ha
for the average of 2006-2009 and remaining
at that level for the average of 2010-2013.
In general, grain and rapeseed yields are
highest in the Czech Republic, followed by
Hungary and Slovakia and Poland, while the
lowest yields are reached in the two northern
Baltic states Latvia and Estonia, where, how-
ever, spring varieties dominate. The biggest
jump in yields over time can be recorded for
Romania and Bulgaria. Wheat yields, for ex-
ample, increased by more than 30% since the
middle of the last decade.
Apart from rapeseed (until 2009) and wheat,
the area of the spring crops corn and sunflow-
ers has also increased a lot. Acreage of eachcrop jumped by a good 30% between 2004
and 2013. Yields of both crops have also
jumped by around 10% when comparing the
2003-2006 with the 2010-2013 average.
Overall, yields in the EU-13 countries are in-
creasing more steeply than in the EU-15,
where corn yields have increased by 9% and
those of rapeseed and wheat have remained
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more or less unchanged. However, though the
central and eastern European member states
have caught up, the overall yield level is still
notably higher in the EU-15, i.e. for wheat by
around 60% higher, for rapeseed by almost
40% and for corn by a vast 100%. On top,
weather related yield variations are much
higher in the East, where, for example, the
corn yield has dropped twice in the past 10
years by more than 35% from one year to an-
other. In the West, year on year swings of
more than 15% did not exist.
Although many areas in the EU-13 have acompetitive disadvantage compared to the
EU-15 since they are located far away from
the ports (Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Repub-
lic, southern Poland), trade relations with the
EU-15 have clearly intensified over the past
years. While ahead of and right after acces-
sion in 2004 no more than 1 mln t of grains
were transported from the new member states
to the EU-15, the number has been at just un-
der 11 mln t on average of the past four years,
with wheat at around 5.5 mln t and corn at
just under 5 mln t. In particular, Italy, Germa-
ny, the Netherlands and also Austria have be-
come important importers of corn from the
EU-13, most notably from Hungary, Poland
and the Balkan countries. With regard to
wheat, it is mainly Hungary, Poland, the
Czech Republic and, again, the Balkan coun-
tries Romania and Bulgaria, which have nota-
bly increased their exports to the EU-15. The
main importers are Germany, Italy and Spain.
Rapeseed trade flows are mainly dominated
by Germany, buying mainly from its neigh-
bours Poland and Czech Republic as well as
from Hungary.
However, the scenario that imported goods
from the eastern part of the EU replaced
western crops that would then have no outlet
anymore did not occur since accession took
place. Instead, the imports were needed in or-
der to serve demand. First, grain demand from
the ethanol industry rose from practically zero
to around 10-11 mln t in 2013 (mostly corn
and wheat). And second, third country de-
mand for grain exports from the EU-15 has
increased substantially from the 2002/03 to
2005/06 average of around 18 mln t to the
2010/11 to 2013/14 average of almost 24 mln
t. Only demand from the animal production
sector has declined over the observed period.
While production and trade have substantially
increased since the mid-2000s, the livestock
sector has heavily suffered. A relatively posi-
tive development only took place in the poul-
try sector. Production has increased by 21%
in the EU-13 from 2.4 mln t in in 2005 to 2.9
mln t in 2013. Poland is the clear winner with
an increase of more than 600,000 t. Slovakia,
Croatia and Check Republic, though being
much smaller producers than Poland, reduced
their production heavily.
Cattle inventories decreased from 14.0 mln
heads in 2004 to 13.1 mln heads in 2013, a
minus of 6%. Romania and Slovakia stands
out with reductions of 800,000 (29%) and
125,000 heads, respectively. Poland is again
the country with the largest increase in abso-
lute numbers from 5.3 mln to 5.6 mln heads.
Hog inventories suffered the most and de-
creased by 40% from 38 to 25 mln head. The
largest decrease occurred in Poland which
alone decreased inventories by 7.4 mln head
(from 18.4 to 11.0 mln head). The only major
country with increasing inventories was Ro-
mania. There, hog inventories increased by
2% (from 5.1 to 5.2 mln head). Interestingly,
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the hog inventories in the EU-15 remained
stable in the same period.
Gross value added of the agricultural indus-
try increased by 17% from 2004 – 2013 forthe EU-13. This indicates that profitability is
increasing. Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Re-
public and Estonia (12%, 9%, 9%, 9%) lead
the development in this respect. All in all, the
increases (or improvements) in farms size,
gross value added, yield and infrastructure
indicate a development towards more profita-
ble agriculture in the EU-13. If technology
adoption and structural change continue and
investments in infrastructure will be further
increased the EU-13 shows potential for in-
creasing agricultural production and exports
even further. The past 10 years have shown
that demand for this region’s crops is steadily
rising both in the EU and in the rest of the
world.
With Compliments,
ADM Germany GmbH
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ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review July 31, 2014
2014/15** 2013/14* 2012/13 2014/15** 2013/14* 2012/13
WORLD TOTAL GRAIN (incl. Rice)*** 2,445.8 2,466.7 2,267.7 703.7 702.0 690.4
USA 429.3 433.5 354.0 58.1 59.1 60.1
Canada 49.8 66.2 51.6 13.9 15.8 14.9
Argentina 48.7 45.0 47.6 10.5 9.7 10.7
Australia 35.7 42.0 35.2 19.1 19.2 18.1
China 496.6 489.3 476.2 93.7 92.8 91.5
India 241.6 242.5 240.1 99.9 98.9 97.4
Russia 92.5 87.0 66.1 41.0 40.5 37.1
Ukraine 58.8 60.8 42.7 14.7 15.2 14.1
EU-28 308.2 302.4 279.8 57.7 57.2 57.2
WORLD WHEAT (Jul/Jun)*** 705.2 714.2 657.7 222.9 220.4 216.2
USA 54.2 58.0 61.7 18.7 18.3 19.8
Canada 27.7 37.5 27.2 9.3 10.4 9.5
Argentina 12.5 10.5 9.3 4.2 3.5 3.6
Australia 24.6 27.0 22.9 13.8 13.5 13.0
China 124.0 121.9 121.0 24.2 24.1 24.3
India 95.9 93.5 94.9 30.6 30.0 29.9
FSU-12 102.2 103.8 77.3 47.4 47.6 43.9
Russia 57.6 52.1 37.7 24.2 24.0 21.3
Ukraine 22.0 22.3 15.8 6.2 6.5 5.6
Kazakhstan 15.2 16.5 11.3 12.7 13.0 12.3
EU-28 150.7 144.1 134.7 26.6 25.7 25.8
WORLD CORN (Sep/Aug)*** 981.0 984.4 868.8 177.3 178.1 177.2
USA 352.1 353.7 273.8 33.9 35.5 35.4
Argentina 26.0 24.0 27.0 3.7 3.4 4.0
Brazil 74.0 78.0 81.5 14.8 15.5 15.8
China 222.0 218.5 205.6 36.8 36.3 35.0
South Africa 13.5 14.5 12.4 3.2 3.2 3.2
Ukraine 26.8 29.9 18.6 4.7 4.8 4.4
EU-28 67.8 64.4 58.2 9.6 9.7 9.9
WORLD BARLEY (Jul/Jun)*** 131.9 145.1 130.0 49.0 50.5 50.3
USA 4.1 4.7 4.8 1.1 1.2 1.3
Canada 7.3 10.2 8.0 2.3 2.7 2.8Australia 7.5 9.5 7.5 3.8 3.9 3.6
Russia 15.7 15.3 14.0 9.0 8.7 8.8
Ukraine 8.5 7.3 6.9 3.1 3.2 3.3
EU-28 57.6 59.6 55.2 12.5 12.3 12.5
Argentina 3.9 4.8 5.0 1.0 1.3 1.5
WORLD RICE (Milled) (Jan/Dec)*** 479.4 477.5 471.7 161.5 160.6 158.0
USA 7.2 6.1 6.3 1.2 1.0 1.1
China 144.0 142.3 143.0 30.6 30.3 30.1
India 104.0 106.3 105.2 43.8 43.5 42.4
Indonesia 37.7 37.4 36.6 12.2 12.1 12.2
WORLD TOTAL OILSEEDS*** 521.9 503.9 474.6 234.6 229.5 226.8
WORLD SOYBEANS (Sep/Aug)*** 304.8 283.9 268.0 117.2 113.0 109.3
USA 103.4 89.5 82.6 34.0 30.7 30.8
Argentina 54.0 54.0 49.3 19.6 20.0 19.4
Brazil 91.0 87.5 82.0 30.5 29.9 27.7
China 10.8 11.9 12.6 6.0 6.6 7.2
India 10.5 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.9 10.7
WORLD RAPESEED (Jul/Jun)*** 70.2 71.2 63.6 36.7 36.2 36.3
Canada 14.5 18.0 13.9 7.9 8.0 8.8
Australia 3.5 3.8 4.1 2.7 2.7 3.3
China 8.7 8.4 8.0 4.6 4.6 4.4
India 7.7 7.1 6.0 7.1 7.1 6.1
EU-28 23.1 21.1 19.6 6.7 6.6 6.3
Ukraine 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.6
WORLD SUNSEED (Sep/Aug)*** 40.7 42.9 36.1 24.7 24.6 23.8
Argentina 2.9 2.3 3.1 1.6 1.4 1.6
Russia 9.8 10.4 8.0 7.5 7.4 6.5
Ukraine 10.9 11.5 8.8 5.6 5.2 5.4
EU-28 8.3 8.9 6.8 4.4 4.5 4.3
Sources: USDA, Stats. Canada, ABARE, own Estimates * Estimate ** Forecast *** Sum as USDA
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Table 1: World Crop Production
Production (mln tons) Area (mln ha)
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ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review July 31, 2014
2014/15 2013/14 2014/15 2013/14
WORLD 151.6 164.3 WORLD 115.2 125.0
EXPORTERS EXPORTERS
USA 24.5 32.2 USA 43.2 48.3
Canada 21.0 22.5 Argentina 16.0 13.5
Argentina 6.5 2.0 Brazil 20.0 20.5
Australia 19.0 19.5 South Africa 2.2 3.0
Russia 19.5 18.5 Ukraine 16.0 20.0
Ukraine 9.0 9.5 India 2.5 3.5
Kazakhstan 6.0 8.4 EU-28 2.0 2.2
EU-28 28.0 30.5 Russia 3.5 4.0
India 3.5 5.9 Paraguay 2.3 1.8
IMPORTERS IMPORTERS
Brazil 6.5 7.0 Mexico 10.9 11.5
Mexico 3.5 4.6 Colombia 4.2 4.5
South Korea 4.2 4.3 Egypt 6.5 7.0
Japan 6.0 6.2 Iran 4.8 5.0
Indonesia 7.5 7.4 South Korea 9.5 10.0
Iraq 3.0 3.4 Japan 16.0 15.5
Egypt 10.6 10.3 Taiwan 4.2 4.2
Morocco 3.0 3.9 EU-28 13.0 14.5
Algeria 6.0 6.9 China 3.0 3.5EU-28 5.0 3.8
China 3.0 7.0
Source: USDA Source: USDA
2014/15 2013/14
WORLD 20.3 22.6
EXPORTERS
USA 0.2 0.3
Canada 0.8 1.6
Australia 4.7 6.0
Russia 3.5 2.7
Ukraine 2.2 2.5
EU-28 5.8 5.8
Argentina 2.5 2.7Kazakhstan 0.4 0.4
IMPORTERS
USA 0.5 0.4
China 3.0 3.8
Japan 1.3 1.3
Jordan 0.7 1.0
Saudi Arabia 7.5 9.5
Iran 1.0 0.5
Tunesia 0.1 0.6
Source: USDA
2014/15 2013/14 2014/15 2013/14
WORLD 113.3 111.6 WORLD 13.6 14.1
EXPORTERS EXPORTERS
USA 45.6 44.1 Canada 8.1 8.1
Argentina 8.5 8.5 Australia 2.7 2.9
Brazil 45.0 45.8 EU-28 0.4 0.3
Paraguay 4.3 4.3 Ukraine 1.9 2.2
USA 0.2 0.2
IMPORTERS IMPORTERS
Mexico 3.7 3.7 USA 0.8 0.9
China 73.0 69.0 Mexico 1.5 1.5
Japan 2.8 2.9 China 3.5 4.0
South Korea 1.2 1.1 Japan 2.5 2.5
Taiwan 2.3 2.3 Pakistan 0.9 0.6
Thailand 2.1 1.9 UAE 0.7 0.7
Indonesia 2.0 2.0 EU-28 2.9 3.5
EU-28 12.5 12.7Source: USDA Source: USDA
Table 2: WHEAT TRADE (mln t) Table 3: CORN TRADE (mln t)
Table 5: SOYBEAN TRADE (mln t) Table 6: RAPESEED TRADE (mln t)
Table 4: BARLEY TRADE (mln t)
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ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review July 31, 2014
2014* 2013 2014* 2013 2014* 2013 2014* 2013
EU-28 23,071 21,148 8,273 8,863 1,575 1,474 32,919 31,485
EU-15 15,227 13,885 2,952 3,072 1,241 1,139 19,421 18,096
Germany 6,009 5,767 66 67 0 0 6,076 5,834
France 5,411 4,378 1,544 1,624 110 110 7,065 6,112
Italy 52 56 236 202 1,056 952 1,344 1,210
Netherlands 19 19 0 0 0 0 19 19
Belgium/Lux. 46 46 0 0 0 0 46 46
U.K. 2,346 2,217 0 0 0 0 2,346 2,217
Ireland 49 49 0 0 0 0 49 49
Denmark 703 681 0 0 0 0 703 681
Greece 8 8 101 101 0 0 110 110
Spain 45 57 907 980 2 2 954 1,039
Portugal 0 0 20 21 0 0 20 21
Austria 173 198 77 77 73 75 323 350
Sweden 305 335 0 0 0 0 305 335
Finland 62 74 0 0 0 0 62 74
EU-13 7,844 7,263 5,321 5,791 334 335 13,499 13,388
Poland 2,952 2,904 5 5 0 0 2,957 2,909
Czech Republic 1,320 1,423 59 64 5 5 1,383 1,492
Slovakia 320 343 208 234 19 19 547 596
Hungary 639 532 1,394 1,494 70 78 2,103 2,104
Estonia 166 157 0 0 0 0 166 157Latvia 210 275 0 0 0 0 210 275
Lithuania 529 554 0 0 0 0 529 554
Slovenia 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10
Romania 1,102 715 1,944 2,009 133 126 3,179 2,850
Bulgaria 534 286 1,628 1,896 0 0 2,162 2,182
Croatia 63 64 84 89 107 107 254 260
Source: ADM Germany GmbH * Estimates
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Table 8: EU-28 OILSEED PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t)
RAPESEED SUNSEED SOYBEANS TOTAL 3
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ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review July 31, 2014
Wheat
Wheat flour *
Durum wheat
Semolina *
BarleyMalt *
Corn
Rye
Rye flour *
Oats
Sorghum
Others
Total
Source: EU-Commission * in grain equivalent
ImportExport
(incl. Food Aid)
EU-27
01/07/2013 - 23/07/2013
15
763
93
6
0
0
0
EU-28
01/07/2014 - 22/07/2014
Export
(incl. Food Aid)
Import
7890
17
1
0
3
0
1,1641,673
87
1
184
0
10
891
0
0
0
0
0
221 312
1,026 709
47 1
68 55
0 0
888
2,281
3
0
28
0
1,085
Table 9: EU-27 EXPORT AND IMPORT COMMITMENTS (in 1,000 t)
0 4
0 0
0
0
0
3