TENTATIV~ CLASSI?TCATION* T h e classlf lcatlOn of th is material h P 8 not been authcn- tlrated by the mvernmet. You wlll be ndlflcd if tho

DNAl.940804.012 authentlcated el.ulflcatkn dlfferm from W r -tatloo Clrulflcrtloa

ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT

April 1971 AR-563-DASA

FINAL REPORT 1 October 1970 - 30 Aoril 1971

R a n d prepares Administrative Reports to convey information to its clients on the status of work being done for them. They are not publications intended for distribution to other organizations.

Prepared for: Defense Atomic Support Aaency

Contract No. : 01 -71 -C-0012

\ \ '

I GROUP - 1 I Excluded from .utomatk

c

_ - 3 Copy NO. - - a x

-27-

employing t h e concept discussed above.

mined by detonation of a second HE charge i n a completely tamped con-

f igu ra t ion .

descr ibing t h e concept wi th recommendations f o r h i s prepara t ion of a test plan and p a r t i c i p a t i o n as Pro jec t Of f i ce r .

The decoupling would b e deter-

A proposal of t he experiment is being prepared by Whitener

X-RAY VULNERABILITY AND LETHALITY (U)

(U) During t h e first q u a r t e r of 1971 a thermodynamic s tudy of

t i tanium was completed by F. J . Krieger and published: "The Thermody-

namics of t h e Titanium/Titanium Vapor System," DASA 2624 (Appendix XIII).

A similar study on beryl l ium w a s i n i t i a t e d .

(U) As a r e s u l t of discussions during t h e February Predix Meeting

a t Physics I n t e r n a t i o n a l , San Leandro, Ca l i fo rn ia , t h e following RAND

research memoranda were s e n t t o D r . Robert Kruger, Systems, Science

and Software, La J o l l a , C a l i f o r n i a , f o r use i n DASA work:

RM-3326-3-PR9 'The Thermodynamics of t h e Graphite,Carbon

Vapor System"

RM-3988-PRB "Thermodynamics of t h e Phenol-Formaldehyde Resin/

Carbon-Hydrogen-Oxygen Vapor System"

RM-5876-PR9 "The Thermodynamics of t h e Aluminum S i l i c a t e /

Aluminum-Silicon-Oxygen Vapor System"

RM-5958-PR, "The Thermodynamics o f t h e Boron Carbide/Boron-

Carbon Vapor Sys tern"

(U) A t o t a l of e ighteen RAND research memoranda on t h e thermody-

namics of a b l a t i n g materials w a s sent t o Lt. John G. P i c a r e l l i , AFWL,

Kir t land Air Force Base, New Mexico.

FALLOUT AlVD BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF RADIATION (U)

(U) Two con t rove r s i a l i s s u e s dea l ing wi th lw-level r a d i a t i o n

damage have been matters o f p u b l i c debate i n recent years .

Sternglass a n a l y s i s which r e l a t e d i n f a n t m o r t a l i t i e s t o nuc lear tests,

and t h e no threshold f o r r a d i a t i o n damage theory of Tamplin and Gofman

The

UNCLASSIFIED

-28-

have relevancy t o t h e long term consequences of f a l l o u t and nuc lear

warfare.

(U) B. H. Mitchel l , M.D. has prepared a b r i e f review of each

of these r a d i a t i o n damage i s s u e s . The Sternglass controversy comments

a r e summarized i n Appendix XIV. A less thorough ana lys i s of t he Gofman-

Tamplin r a d i a t i o n exposure s tandards i s s u e is contained i n Appendix X V .

W ” O N OUTPUT (U)

(U) Brode has continued as Chairman of t he DASA Weapon Output

Uorking Group, which, i n recent yea r s , has served t o coordinate improve-

ments i n codes and he lp incorpora te a d d i t i o n a l physics t rea tments of

nuclear and x-ray r a d i a t i o n out of weapons and test devices.

n i f i c a n t cont r ibu t ion from t h i s working group is t he two-way exchange

i t promotes between workers i n the AEC l a b s and DASA on matters p e r t i -

nent t o the needs f o r and app l i ca t ions of weapon disassembly d e t a i l .

The AEC workers acqui re a b e t t e r apprec ia t ion of the weapons i n f o r m -

t i on and design d e t a i l needed i n t h e ana lys i s of weapon e f f e c t s , and

80 can do a b e t t e r job .

come t o know enough about t h e weapon design f e a t u r e s and prospects t o

make more r e a l i s t i c estimates of e f f e c t s .

One s i g -

The DASA personnel, on t h e o the r hand, have

(U) The d e t a i l e d crater coupling work now i n progress is a l s o

being coordinated wi th LRL i n t e r e s t s i n t h i s area.

SYSTEMS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS (U)

(U) The work of Schaefer , Graham, Rogers, Thomas, Gilmore,

LeLevier, Brode, Wright , and o the r s have impact on systems v u l n e r a b i l i t y

assessments. Some of these cons idera t ions are derived from o t h e r spec i f -

i c sub jec t s covered i n t h i s r epor t (e.g., TREES, Em, GROUND SHOCK, BIGH ALTITUDE, e t c . ) , and some work more d i r e c t l y a s soc ia t ed wi,th sys-

tems s u r v i v a b i l i t y assessments (by Schaefer) is covered in Appendices

XI and XII.

UNCLASSIFIED

4/16/71 Appendix XIV

COMMENTS ON THE STERSGLASS CONTROVERSY

B. H. Mitchel l , M.D.

What has come t o be known as t h e S ternglass controversy s t a r t e d

w i t h a paper presented a t the 9 th Annual Hanford B io log ica l Symposirun

in May 1969.

e f f e c t s due to low l e v e l f a l l o u t r ad ia t ion . H e s t a t e d h i s conclusions

as follows:

S t e r n g l a s s presented evidence i n d i c z t i n g alarming

"The e a r l i e s t evidence f o r low-level and low dose rate

e f f e c t s w a s obtained f ro= a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s of t h e leukenia

inc rease mong ch i ld ren 0 t o 10 yea r s o l d i n t h e Albany-Troy,

N.Y. area fol lowing the r a inou t of r ad ioac t ive deb r i s from a

43-KT nuc le s r de tona t ion in Nevada i n A p r i l 1953.

sequent doubling of t h e childhood leukemia rate over a per iod

The sub-

of 8 yea r s w a s che rac t e r i zed by a 4 to 5 year delay i n onse t

s i m i l a r t o t h a t observed for chi ldren who

t i o n I n u t e ro o r e a r l y infancy and a s h i f t i n age d i s t r i b u t i o n

received x-ray radia-

at onse t toward o lder age similar t o t h a t noted by Szewart and

H e w i t t f o r l a t z a t e r i n e x-ray i r r ad ia t ion . "

'%ore recent evidence f o r t he e f f e c t s of low-dose-rate

r a d i a t i o n on t he developing f e t u s , embryo, and young infant .

comes from a study of f e t a l , neonatal , and p o s t n a t a l m o r t a l i t y

rates f o r each s ta te in the United S t a t e s and f o r a number of

foreign couat r ies .

following t h e de tona t ion of s p e c i f i c nuc lear weapons shows a

geographical d i s t r i b u t i o n t h a t co izc ides with t h e known long-

range f a l l o u t pa t t e rns .

Analysis of t h e changes i n m o r t a l i t y rates

The changes i n m o r t a l i t y rates for

-2-

d i f f e r e n t regions o f fhe United S t a t e s and t h e world are found

t o be c l o s e l y c o r r e l a t e d wi th t h e measured amounts of SrgO in

the milk and t h e observed amounts i n t h e bone and t e e t h of the

f e t u s and newborn."

In an a r t i c l e i n Esquire e n t i t l e d , "The Death of A l l Chi ldred '

S te rnglass made t h e following statements:

1. The s c i e n t i f i c evidence i n d i c a t e s t h a t a l ready a t least

one of t h ree ch i ld ren , who d ied before t h e i r f i r s t b i r thday

in America in the 1960s, may have d ied as a r e s u l t of peacetime

nuc lea r t e s t i n g .

2.

found t o have reached c lose t o one excess death i n t h e U.S.

per 'one hundred l i v e b i r t h s due t o the release of only 200

The computer-calculated change i n i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y was

megatons of f i s s i o n energy by 1963.

3. A release of some 20,000 megatons anywhere i n t h e w o r l d ,

needed i n o f f ens ive warheads f o r an e f f e c t i v e f i r s t s t r i k e or

in the thousands of defensive ABM warheads requi red t o ensure

in t e rcep t ion , could lead t o e s s e n t i a l l y no i n f a n t s surviving

t o produce another generation.

Considering t h e impl ica t ion of S te rng la s s ' a s s e r t i o n s t h e r e has

been generated a r a t h e r large l i t e r a t u r e ( see re ferences f o r a repre-

s e n t a t i v e b u t incomplete bibl iography) examining t h e d a t a from w h i c h

the conclusions have been derived.

-3-

A. INFAVT MORTALITY

Figure 1 represents the da t a , and the device, used by S te rng la s s

t o determine t h e excess i n f a n t mor t a l i t y rate in t h e U,S. In essence

he has incorporated a "projected 1935-50 slope" on t h e a c t u a l data and

has s t a t e d t h a t t he d i f f e r e n t i a l between t h e expected and t h e pro jec ted

values c o n s t i t u t e s t h e excess i n f a n t mor ta l i ty .

60

OI

c

m W

a 0 0

I 50

E

z 40 - 0 z 30

s t s 5 20

c

* a

f e P

f I5 E

2

IO

_. - - ___

flGURE 4 MORTALITY RATE IN THE U.S. F O R INFANTS 0-1 YR.

1 i 1 I 1 I 1 I NO'TESTS e%

END O F T E R S BY US. U.K.US.S.R - FRENCH a - 1 '

Ir, A-TEST

YEVAOA A-BOMB TESTS s I I I I l i

;s '40 as 'so 'u '60 '65 *70 '75

In an art icle e n t i t l e d , "The P i t f a l l s of Extrapolat ion," A. Stewart

(New S c i e n t i s t , J u l y 2 4 , 1969) has s t a t e d t h a t "Sternglass has pos tu la ted

a f e t a l mor t a l i t y t rend which would even tua l ly produce rates w e l l below

the levelwhich--according t o his own theory-would r e s u l t from back-

ground rpdiat ion." Faul ty e x t r a p o l a t i o n has obviously provided an . .

-4-

implausible , i f n o t impossible, r e s u l t . It is a l s o t r u e t h a t i f one

were t o extend the p ro jec t ion backward i n t i m e t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y

would have been 1002 a t sometime in t h e p a s t .

Lindop and Rotb la t (Nature 2 2 4 : 1257, 1969) have concise ly sum-

marized the various criticism concerning Sternglass ' use of the i n f a n t

m o r t a l i t y data:

"Infant mor t a l i t y in a given country a t any p a r t i c u l a r

time has seve ra l causes , f o r example, a low s tandard of hygiene,

l ack of care, i n f e c t i o u s d i seases , acc iden t s and gene t i c e f f e c t s .

The s teady inc rease i n s tandard of l i v i n g i n the developed COM-

tr ies during the p a s t century has r e s u l t e d i n a gradual decrease

i n *he mor t a l i t y rates. When an important advance is made which

e l imina te s , o r g r e a t l y reduces, one cause of death, for example,

t h e in t roduc t ion of sulfonamides and a n t i b i o t i c s , which no doubt

uarkedly reduced i n f e c t i o u s d i seases which con t r ibu te t o I n f a n t

m o r t a l i t y , t h e r e is a sudden drop i n t h e m o r t a l i t y curve; the

steep s l o p e may cont inue f o r some t i m e un t i l t h i s p a r t i c u l a r

cause has been el iminated, and then t h e curve resumes its smaller

s lope u n t i l a f u r t h e r cause of i n f a n t death can be removed.

t h e m o r t a l i t y curve would be expected t o have a gene ra l d m w a r d

t rend, but with s lopes vary ing from time t o t ime."

Figure 2 (takenfrom Sartwel l :

,

Thus,

Prevent ive Medicine C Pub l i c Heal th ,

page 656) shows a breakdown by e t io logy of i n f a n t dea ths from 1930-1959.

It is apparent t h a t t h e c o n t r o l of pneumonia and in f luenza as w e l l a8

enter i t is and d i a r rhea are t h e chief con t r ibu to r s t o t h e s t e e p slope

used by Sternglass f o r his o v e r a l l i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y rate.

-5

,

-6-

Figure 2 a l s o i n d i c a t e s , if anything, a s l i g h t l y downward t rend

fa t h e i n f a n t dea ths from congeni ta l malformations. This classifica-

tion would be most l i k e l y t o r ise i f deaths due t o r a d i a t i o n were

introduced i n t o t h e t o t a l i t y of i n f a n t deaths beginning i n 1950.

. Figure 3 ( a l s o from Sar twel l , page 656) shows a p l o t of i n f a n t

mor t a l i t y by whi tes and non-whites. It is evident t h a t t h e f l a t t e n -

i ng of t h e t o t a l death rate curve is in f luenced more by the non-white

than the white population. *:)ne c e r t a i n l y would not expect this kind

of r e s u l t i f r a d i a t i o n were t h e cause of t h e change in s l o p e of t h e

t o t a l death rate curve.

It is a l s o reasonable t o assume t h a t t he white i n f a n t death rate

curve would be even less f l a t t e n e d i f t h e whi te poverty group were

removed. .

Tompkins and Brown (October, 1969) have questioned Sternglass '

compzrison of U.S.and Swedish i n f a n t mor t a l i t y d a t a purpor t ing t o show

t h a t t h e r e i s no "na tu ra l plateau" in t h e a t t a i n a b l e i n f a n t mor t a l i t y

rate. The Swedish da t a l e v e l o f f a t about 1957 and by 1961 t h e s lope

resumes a t t h e previous rate. Tompkins and Brown f u r t h e r state:

"If t h e 4 y e a r s of change i n rate of dec l ine in 1957-1960 In the

Swedish m o r t a l i t y rate are indeed a r e f l e c t i o n of depos i t ion of Sr 90

from the l a r g e tests in t h e P a c i f i c , t h e r e i s no explana t ion a8 to

why t h e l a r g e series of Russian tests i n t h e f a l l of 1961 and 1962,

which l e d t o t h e world-wide depos i t ion of more SrgO than any o t h e r

series, is not r e f l e c t e d in t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y i n Sweden in 1965

and 1966.

.

'8'

Rotbla t and Lindop a l s o examined t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y curves in

s e v e r a l other count r ies . France, I t a l y and Japan , wi th s i m i l a r amounts

of g loba l f a l l o u t as t h e U.S. show considerable v a r i a t i o n intheir.

i n f a n t mor ra l i t y curves. The French curve d id not f l a t t e n u n t i l 1962.

In Italy t h e curve w a s s t i l l sloping without a p la t eau through 1965.

In Japan t h e s lope of t i re curve became s t e e p e r a f t e r 1958.

Australia does show a break (similar t o t h e U.S. curve) in 1952 t h e

SrgO depos i t ion is very s m a l l (about 10XAnorthern hemisphere amounts).

The Ste rng la s s assumption t h a t t h i s is excess m o r t a l i t y due t o Sr

is untenable.

Although

of

90

It would appear from t h e foregoing argunents t h a t the cha rac t e r

of t h e i n f a c t death rate

do not f i t t he S te rng la s s assumption t h a t low-level r a d i a t i o n is r-Tpon-

s i b l e via a g e n e t i c e f f e c t f o r t h e f l a t t e n i n g of t he s l o p e beginning

in 1950.

curve is made up of many elements. These

-9-

B. THE TRINITY SEOT

Ste rng la s s has a l s o contended t h a t t h e f a l l o u t from the T r i n i t y

shot ( Ju ly 1 9 4 5 ) crossed the southeas te rn po r t ion of the U.S..and

claims t o show t h a t subsequent t o t h i s t h e r e w a s an i nc rease i n i n f a n t

mor t a l i t y fn these s t a t e s .

S te rnglass p re sen ta t ion i n t h e AEC "evaluation" paper (see bibl iography) :

There is a summary r e f u t a t i o n of t h i s

1) R. Engelman (a meteorologis t with the AEC) has eva lua ted the

weather d a t a and concluded t h a t T r i n i t y f a l l o u t d id no t c ros s

the Miss i s s ipp i r i v e r i n t o t h e e a s t e r n s ta tes south of t h e Iowa,

I l l i n o i s area.

2)

"The t r a j e c t o r y of the 1945 Alamagordo test has been p l o t t e d f o r

winds a t t h e 10,000, 20,000, and 30,000 f o o t l e v e l s . These would

i n d i c a t e t h a t the major i ty of t he f a l l o u t would have been deposi ted

in New Mexico and t h a t the cloud would have crossed t h e states

towards the nor theas t , going i n t o Kansas and Nebraska. This

would agree with t h e f ind ings of Webb of t h e Eastman Kodak Co.

t h a t paperboard produced in t h i s area fol lowing the T r i n i t y test

was rad ioac t ive .

toward t h e southeas t bu t turned back i n t o Texas without c ross ing

the Mississippi."

Since i t is well e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t t h e f a l l o u t from Trinity d i d not

Harley (Director of AEC Health and Safe ty Laboratory):

The po r t ion of t h e cloud at 30,000 f t . d i d start

occur where S ternglass s a i d i t d id , h i s d i scuss ion of i n f a n t mor t a l i t y

.rates r e l a t e d t o SrgO from t h i s s h o t can have no s ign i f i cance .

-10-

C. FETAL MORTALITY AND CHILDHOOD LEUKEMIA

The S te rng la s s arguments w i th regard t o f e t a l m o r t a l i t y and childhood

leukemia being caused by SrgO derived from f a l l o u t are even weaker than

the case made f o r i n f a n t mor ta l i ty . The r e f u t a t i o n s by h i s c r i t i cs are

included i n the bibl iography b u t i t seems t o be an unnecessary e x e r c i s e

t o at tempt t o summarize these.

D. THE STERNGLASS HYPOTESIS ON THE MECHANISM OF THE SRgo EFFECT

In t h e Esquire ar t ic le , "The Death of a l l Children," S te rng la s s has

s t a t e d "The causa t ion puzzle now appears t o be solved. In 1963, K. G. Luning

and his co-workers i n Sweden publ ished t h e i r discovery t h a t small amounts

of s t roc t ium 90, i n j e c t e d i n t o male mice th ree o r fou r weeks p r i o r t o mating,

produced an i nc rease i n f e t a l dea ths among t h e i r o f fspr ing . No such inc rease

appeared when corresponding amounts of chemically d i f f e r e n t r ad ioac t ive

cesium 137 were in j ec t ed .

Rotblat and Lindop r e f u t e t h i s causa t ive e q l a n a t i o n i n t h e i r paper

on "Strontium 90 and I n f a n t Mortali ty."

"The claim t h a t evidence from experimental d a t a wi th animals

supports t h e S te rng la s s e f f e c t f a l l s t o t h e ground when a quan t i t a t -

i v e a n a l y s i s is made.

quoted by S t e m g l a s s , has made a pub l i c s ta tement i n which he repud-

ia tes t h e use of h i s d a t a as a b a s i s f o r t h e S te rng la s s effect.

Luning and his col leagues i n j e c t e d SrgO i n t r a p e r i t o n e a l l y i n t o male

m i c e , mated them with u n i r r a d i a t e d females, and s t u d i e d t h e f o e t a l

mor t a l i t y i n t h e of fspr ing . Tine e f f e c t observed w a s so small t h a t

Professor Luning of Stockholm, whose work is

-11-

they had t o use a very l a r g e number of aniinals.

have no t y e t been publ ished, bu t i n a personal communication

Luning gave us some prel iminary data:

20,000 i r r a d i a t e d mice were used i n t h e experiment and t h e f o e t a l

mor t a l i t y rate was 7.5% i n t h e con t ro l s and 8.7% i n t h e i r r a d i a t e d

mice. This small d i f f e rence is probably s i g n i f i c a n t , bu t i t should

be noted t h a t Luning's mice received 18 xcicro-curies of SrgO which

I s an enormous dose compared wi th t h e s t ront ium from f a l l o u t .

Assuming tha t only 1% of t h i s SrgO w a s r e t a ined i n t h e mice, t h e

concentrat ion of SrgO p e r gramme of body weight w a s 100,000 times

g r e a t e r than t h a t i n t h e human a d u l t from a l l t h e tests of nuc lea r

weapons.

The f i n a l r e s u l t s

18,000 con t ro l s and over

VI

S a g a i n the OctsSer 1959 Zfi l lgt in of the Atomic S c i e n t i s t s commented

on t h e gene t i c damage argument of S ternglass :

"A poss ib l e e f f e c t of r a d i a t i o n i n induct ion of pe r i -na t a l

mor t a l i t y through gene t i c damage t o t h e pa ren t s has not been

overlooked as a p o s s i b i l i t y by inves t iga to r s .

come of pregnancy among atom bomb su rv ivo r s have f a i l e d t o show

either a decrease i n b i r t h weight or increased m o r t a l i t y among

offspr ing .

g i s t s o r women who received the rapeu t i c r ad ia t ion .

c a r r i e d ou t with swine f e d s t ront ium 90 a t Hanford have shown no

e f f e c t s among o f f sp r ing even a t very high doses."

S tud ie s of t h e out-

Nor was such an e f f e c t seen among ch i ld ren of radiolo-

A n i m a l s t u d i e s

Crissman and Kirk i n t h e i r paper "Strontium Metabolism w i t h S p e c i d

Consideration of Genetic Effects" s t a t ed :

-12-

I' No doubt t he dangers of SrgO are real; however, no low or

comparable dose rate s t u d i e s of the e x i s t i n g problem have been

done. To ex t r apo la t e from s t u d i e s of mice given l a r g e doses

of SrgO KO the highly complex s t a t i s t i c a l eva lua t ion of I n f a n t

mor t a l i t y f i g u r e s i s simply no t realistic.. . . The e f f e c t s of

SrgO on the reproduct ive system and on a l t e r a t i o n s i n g e n e t i c

material have not been quan t i t a t ed .

a l t e r a t i o n s and t h e i r con t r ibu t ion t o i n f a n t mor t a l i t y appear t o

be q u i t e small a t t h e body burdens of SrgO e x i s t i n g today."

The r o l e of these p o s s i b l e

E. CONCLUSIONS

1. The reported demonstration by S te rng la s s of excess dea ths

(childhood leukenia , f e t a l mor t a l i t y , i n f e n t mor t a l i t y )

appear t o be due t o improper use of epidemiological data.

H i s proposed SrgO g e n e t i c damage mechanism has been r e fu t ed 2.

by proper i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e same experimental d a t a which

he used t o support h i s claim.

3. No se r ious s c i e n t i f i c defense of t h e S te rng la s s work has been

published by anyone n o t connected wi th S te rng la s s himself. c

,

-13-

1. Ste rng la s s , E. J . , "Evidence f o r Low Level Radiat ion E f f e c t s in t h e Human Embryo and Fetus," i n Radiat ion Biology of t h e F e t a l and Juven i l e Mammal, 9 th Annual Hanford Symposium, May 5-8, 1969, December 1969.

2. Sternglass , E.J . , "Strontium-90: Evidence for a Poss ib l e Genetic E f fec t i n Man," presented a t t h e 14 th Annual Meeting of t h e Health

. Physics Society, P i t t sburgh , Pennsylvania, June 8-12, 1969.

3. S ternglass , E.J . , "The Death of A l l Children," Esquire, September 1969.

4. Ste rng la s s , E . J . , " Infant Mor ta l i ty and Nuclear Tests," B u l l e t i n of Atomic S c i e n t i s t s , Vol. 25, No. 18, 1969.

5 . Ste rng la s s , E.J . , "Can t h e I n f a n t s Survive?", B u l l e t i n of Atomic S c i e n t i s t s , Vol. 25, No. 6 , 1969.

6. AEC S t a f f , Evaluation and C r i t i q u e of t h e Arguments presented by E. J. S te rng la s s (personal comunica t ion) .

7. Aranoff, . and Boylan, E. S., "Flaws i n t h e S te rng la s s Thesis," Hudson I n s t i t u t e , HI-1248-DP, August 5 , 1969.

8. Crissman, J. D. and Kirk, J. H., "Strontium Metabolism with S p e c i a l Considerat ion of Genetic Ef fec ts , " Aerospace Medicine, Brooks Air Force Base, Texas, January 1970.

Review 1-70-USAF School of

9. Fr ied lander , M, W. and Klarmann, J., "How Many Children?", Envfronment, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1969.

10. Graham, S. and Thro, E., "The Ste rng la s s Phenomenon," Nuclear News, Vol. 12, No. 37, 1969.

U. Greenwald, P. and Kinch, "Relat ion of Radioactive Fa l lou t t o Leukemia and F e t a l Mor ta l i ty ; A Reconsideration," U. S. Atomic Energy Commission, EXEP-690501, December 1969.

12. Harley, J. E., "Comments on F a l l o u t Corre la t ions Nade by D r . Ernest

Lindop, P. J. and Ro tb la t , J., "Strontium-90 and I n f a n t Mortality,"

Sternglass , " WL-214, Quar te r ly Report, October 1, 1969.

13. Nature, Vol'. 224, No. 1257, 1969.

14. Nilsson, A. and Walinder, G., "Strontium-90 Dosages and I n f a n t Mortal i ty ," Bu l l e t in Atomic S c i e n t i s t s , Vol. 26, No. 40, 1970.

I f 15. Rotblat , J. and Lindop, P. J., "Strontium-90 and I n f a n t Mor ta l i ty , 19 th Pugwash Conference on Science and World A f f a i r s , October 1969.

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16. Sar twe l l , P.E., Prevent ive Medicine and Publ ic Health, 9 t h Ed. Appleton-Century-Crof ts, 1965.

17. Tamplin, A. R., "Fetal and I n f a n t Moral i ty and the Environment," B u l l e t i n of Atomic S c i e n t i s t s , December 1969.

18. Tompkins, E. and Brown, M. L., "Evaluation of a P o s s i b l e Causal Relat ionship between F a l l o u t Deposit ion of Strontium 90 and I n f a n t and F e t a l Mor ta l i ty Trends," DBE69-2, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare (Pub l i c Health Services , Bureau of Radiological Health) , Rockville, Maryland.

19. Sagan, L. A., " Infant Mor ta l i ty Controversy," B u l l e t i n of Afomic S c i e n t i s t s , October 1969.

20. Sagan, L., "A Reply t o S ternglass , " New S c i e n t i s t , Vol. 44, No. 16, 1969.

21. Stewart , A. , "The P i t f a l l s 02 Extrapolat ion," New S c i e n t i s t , J u l y 1969, page 181.

4 / 2 2 / 71 Appendix XV

The Gofman and Tamplin Argument Over the Federal Radiat ion Standard of 170 m r P e r Year f o r Populat ion Exposure

Harold H. Mi t che l l , M.D.

John W. Gofman and Arthur R. Tamplin have r a i s e d the i s s u e of

t he wisdom and s a f e t y embodied i n the f e d e r a l s t anda rds f o r r a d i a t i o n

exposure. They have argued t h a t t h e populat ion r a d i a t i o n exposure

standard of 170 m i l l i r e m p e r yea r ( 5 rem i n 30 yea r s ) is too high,

by a f a c t o r of ten , as a guide f o r t h e peacetime a c t i v i t i e s of t h e use

of atomic energy.

These vorkers have examined t h e fol lowing data:

Radium poisoning cases.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki exposure.

Breast cancer s tudy on 900 Canadian women fol lowing

f luoroscopic i r r a d i a t i o n ( tuber& x i s cases) as w e l i as

lung cancer s tudy on 500,000 Israelis ( tuberculous versus

non-tuberculosis cases).

About 6000 uranium and o t h e r hard rock miners ( lung cancer).

About 14,000 ankylosing s p o n d x l i t i s cases who received

s p i n a l i r r a d i a t i o n .

Seve ra l thousand U.S. i n d i v i d u a l s i r r a d i a t e d f o r s t a t u s

thymicolymphaticus ( thy ro id and o t h e r cancers).

Numerous animal experimental s t u d i e s .

Figure 1 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e radium i n g e s t i o n

cases and purports t o show consis tency wi th t h e concept of no th reshold

f o r cancer causat ion and t h e l i n e a r concept of carcinogenesis.

.--

a x 3 6 5

z

z) s

-2-

Figure 1 - ----- --- -- -

Dose Range (Rads)

k 321 I 31 3

P- - 1

Number Exposed - Predicted Cases -Observed Cases

Lmcor concept of carcinogenesis, holding that cancer inridelice is drrccfly prOpOeiOMl to rodtation dosc, is wpported by doto on watch p n t e r s who ingestcd radrum. .' tbcr of observed cases falls uell w:t\uir range predrcted by linear arsumptwns.

._ - Figure 2 i s a plot of the Stewart and Kneale data on children irrad-

iated in utero and a l s o approximates a l inear relat ionship between radia-

t ion

r i sk

dose and cancer r i sk . There i s an indication of increased cancer

a t a radiation dose equivalent to 0 .5 rad.

Figure 2

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E “Excess” Cascs pcr

1 ,m

Dote Range

F h’umlcr of DolrWing

noses

Table I is the Gofman-Tamplin summary on the radiogenic lung

cancer among the Uranium miners.

are graphic representations of the data i n the tables .

The figures which follow (3 , 4, 5, 6)

H Calculated Doub!ing

Table I

I ‘ExcpPr’ Caws p” , I

< 120-LSi20 <I20 - 3719 <I20 - 1799 <I10 - 839 <110 - s59 < 120

Spti+aneous CUSeS

Radiogenic Lung Cancer Among Uranium hliners

Cacr

4.71 352 321 1.02

Is 14 9 3

C Total

Number in croup

1981 1918 1 700 1300 804 383

108.8 51.1 30.3

D ‘Excess’

Cases *

(Presumed Radiogenic)

t6 -4

24.9

86.7

39.32 28.50 20.29 10.58 6.76 1.98

7 1 1 D x 103 c41

11.9 4.3 1

3.02 1.94

C 3fcun Dose (\\’La!)

973.9 808.8 558.6 324.3 154.3 60.0

Figure 3 i s a graph of the raw data and merely shows the crude

relationship between dosage and number of “excess” cases. Figure 3

so .. - . :-- . , - -.‘I-

-4-

Figure 4 is the calculated case rate per 1000 plotted against

mean dose. I t approximates the expected l inear relationship. The

curve is uncertain a t lowest dose due to small number of cases.

Figure 4

0 200 400 600 800 1,OOr Mean Dose (WLM)

-5-

Figure 5 shows that the calculated doubling dose drops o f€ as

the mean dose f a l l s . I f there were a threshold e f f e c t at low dosage,

this curve would be expected to rise rather than f a l l .

Figure 5

/-

e

-6 -

Finally,Figure 6 i s the "clearest expression of d i f f erent ia l

impact w i t h varying dose and shows that the e f f e c t per WLM (working

l e v e l months) i s higher a t lowest dosages."

Figure 6

Mean Dose (WLM)

.

-7-

Gofman and Tamplin have summarized (Figure 7) two experiments,

using rats and beagles,to show that as the t o t a l dose falls there i s

e i ther a constant doubling dose calculated or a f a l l i n g off of the

calculated doubling dose.

Figure 7

Mean Dose (Rads) - Beagles - Rafs

Afte r examining a l l t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e on r a d i a t i o n induced

cancer i n humans,

fol lows :

This da ta has l e d

Gofman and Tamplin summarized t h e i r f ind ings as

Table 2

Best Estimates of Doubling Dose of Radiation for Human Cancels a n i the lxrcase in h ; d c n c s Rate per Rad of Exposure

5 Awroximatc % increase In Incideno Doublinr Dnre Rate perRad O n u Site

Leukemia !

Thyroid Cancer (add t s) (younl: persons)

Lunz Cancer Breast Cancer Stomach Cancer Pancreas Cancer Bonc Cancer Lymphatic + other Uematopoietic organs Carcinomatosis of miscellmeous origin

$0-60 Rads

100 Rads (5-10 Rads)

175 Rads 100 Rads 230 Rads 125 Rads 40 Rads

70 Rads

60 R8ds

L6-3-3 %

1% (10-20%)

0.6% 1% 0.4 % 0.8% 2.5%

UI L7%

them t o make a s t a r t l i n g and highly con t rove r s i a l

genera l iza t ion : " tha t a given quan t i ty of r a d i a t i o n can be expected t o

inc rease a l l forms of neoplas ia i n a given populat ion i n d i r e c t propor-

t i o n t o t h e i r spontaneous incidence i n t h a t populat ion. I n o the r wordss

the carcinogenic e f f e c t s of r a d i a t i o n are not addi t ive. . .but mul t ip l ica-

tive--1.e. s y n e r g i s t i c wi th o t h e r carcinogenic processes."

I n a d d i t i o n t o the d a t a presented i n Table 2 t he e f f e c t s of radia-

t i o n on t h e f e t u s in utero are summarized. 2 t o 3 rads is t he est imated

amount of r a d i a t i o n del ivered. Fromthe Stewart and Kneale d a t a and t h e

MacMahon data we have:

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Table 3

Tme of Cmcrr Radhtion Indored 1nere.u

50% increase over spontaneou~ incidence n n U

W n w w ’ m w w n a W U W

Leukemia Lymphosarcoma 50% * Cerebral Tumors 5070 ” Xeuroblsstoma 50% ” Wilms’ Tumor 60% I)

Other cancers 50% From the hladlohon data, we haec the /ollouing highly rimilar rdirnatea: Leukemia 50% increase over spontaneous incidence Central Servous SystemTumors 60% ” Other cancers 40%

w n W

n W w

On the b a s i s of a l l t h e i r studies, Gofman and Tamplin have concluded

t h a t the fol lowing e s t ima tes are reasonable:

For a d u l t s : a ) 100 rads is the es t imated doubling dose for a l l cancers.

b) 1X i nc rease i n i n c i d e n t r a t e p e r year fol lows each inc rease of one rad of exposure.

For those under 20 yrs of age:

a )

b)

Between 5 and 100 rads i s t h e es t imated doubling dose.

Between l a n d 20% inc rease i n inc idence rate pe r yea r

p e r rad of exposure.

For i n f a n t s a) 6 rads is t h e doubling dose. in-utero:

b) 17% i n c r e a s e i n inc idence rate pe r yea r pe r rad of.

exposure . Using the estimates c i t e d above they ca lcu la t ed t h a t t h e U.S. populat ion

vould experience 16,000 a d d i t i o n a l cases of cancer and leukemia on the b a s i s

of t h e 170 mr s t anda rd f o r 30 yea r s ( 5 t cumulative). Any i nc rease i n popu-

l a t i o n would increase t h e cancer c a l c u l a t i o n p ropor t iona te ly . P r e n a t a l exposure

e f f e c t s are not included i n t h i s ca l cu la t ion .

. . ..

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With r ega rd t o g e n e t i c e f f e c t s of r a d i a t i o n , they have used some

recen t d a t a and es t imated t h a t t h e m i n i m u m consequences (from populat ion

exposure t o c u r r e n t s tandard of 170 mr/yr) a f t e r s e v e r a l genera t ions

is a 5% i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l morbidity and mor t a l i t y . This would be a t

least 150,000 a d d i t i o n a l dea ths p e r year , according t o t h e i r ca l cu la t ions .

* * *

As expected the re is developing a cons iderable r e b u t t a l t o the

Gofman-Tamplin arguments.

A. Dr. John S t o r e r (personal communication t o D r . John To t t e r ) :

1. The l i n e a r i t y of t h e dose-respons curve f o r r a d i a t i o n

i n j u r y wi th passage through the zero i n t e r c e p t :

This assumption is usua l ly made i n s e t t i n g r a d i a t i o n

s t anda rds i n order t o b e conservat ive. 1

In the radium died p a i n t e r s t h e r e is a threshold dose

below which tumors do n o t appear. This a l s o a p p l i e s t o the

dog experiments wi th i n t e r n a l emitters.

The dose response curve for leukemia in Nagasaki is n o t

l inear b u t r a t h e r cu rv i l i nea r .

General ly , a c u r v i l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p o r th reshold appears

t o be the b e s t I n t e r p r e t a t i o n of cancer induc t ion i n t h e low t o

medium dose range.

2. The equa l doubling dose concept f o r a l l cancers i s s e r i o u s l y

questioned.

a l ready show s i g n i f i c a n t i nc reases f o r a l l cancers w i t h a g r e a t e r

normal frequency t h a n t h a t of leukemia and thyroid cancer.

If t h i s concept were t r u e then the ABCC s t u d i e s should

It is

easier t o d e t e c t a doubling of a r e l a t i v e l y f r equen t ly occurr ing

event than a doubling of a rare event.

'*According t o Segi and Rurakura cancer of t h e thyro id is

rare i n Japan and leukemia is also r e l a t i v e l y ra re . For example,

cancers o f the esophagus, stomach, l a r g e i n t e s t i n e , rectum, lung,

b r e a s t and u t e r u s are a l l more f requent i n occurrence. Y e t of

these, only for lung and b r e a s t i s t h e r e even a suggest ion of an

increased inc idence i n i r r a d i a t e d surv ivors . **

The inc reased incidence of leukemia among American r a d i o l o g i s t s

should have shown a s i g n i f i c a n t i nc rease of a l l cancers t h a t normally

occur w i t h a g r e a t e r frequency than leukemia i f Gofman an2 Tamplin

are c o r r e c t . This has n o t apparent ly happened.

3.

equal ly e f f e c t i v e as s i n g l e b r i e f exposures is untenable.

The Gofnan-TainplfA a s s s r t i o n t h a t - , r o t r x t c C e L T G S U i c is

This

erroneous assumption a lone makes t h e i r estimate of cases h igh by

a f a c t o r of 5. I

4. "I w o u l d a n s e r v a t i v e l y estimate t h a t they have overest imated t h e

expected increase i n cancer a t t h e MPD by a t least a f a c t o r o f 100."

B. AEC S t a f f Comments:

... the au thor ' s p r e s e n t a t i o n appears to r e l y on a s i n g l e ff

assumption: namely, t h a t a v a i l a b l e d a t a on the inc idence of rad ia t ion-

induced cancer should be i n t e r p r e t e d in terms of doubling dose and

chat a l l forms of cancer show c lose ly similar doubling doses and

closely similar i n c r e a s e s i n inc idence p e r rad.**

that the concept of a doubling dose as app l i ed to carc inogenes is

by Gofman and Tamplin is not v a l i d .

They conclude

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C. Comments of Alexander Grendon (Donner Laboratory).

Gofman and Tamplin have been s e l e c t i v e i n the d a t a they have n

chosen t o use i n de r iv ing t h e i r mul t ip ly ing f ac to r .

s t u d i e s of human r a d i a t i o n exposure reported i n the s c i e n t i f i c

l i terature show equivoca l r e s u l t s , some of which are cont ra ry

t o those se l ec t ed . Moreover, t h e very s t u d i e s they c i t e conta in

elements which they d i s r ega rd t h a t tend t o c o n t r a d i c t t h e i r

hypothesis.

The var ious

"The s c i e n t i f i c aspects of t h e i s s u e s r a i s e d by Gofman and

Tamplin do no t , then, appear t o support t h e i r t hes i s . The human

da ta are a t least equivocal , thus undermining t h e b a s i s of t h e i r

conclusion, which i s t h e a s s e r t e d consis tency of e f f e c t s .

animal da t a , not considered by these authors , show many ins t ances

The

of e f f e c t s q u i t e cont rad ic tory of t h e i r hypothesis. I n sum, t h e r e

seems t o be no sound reason t o depa r t from t h e s tud ied conclusion

t h a t an annual average r a d i a t i o n dose of 170 m r p re sen t s no

se r ious t h r e a t t o t he h e a l t h of the ind iv idua l exposed.

D. The controversy is a cont inuing one and more r e p o r t s are expected.