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Quarterly Digital Intelligence Briefing: Making Sense of Marketing Attribution
in association with Adobe
Quarterly Digital Intelligence Briefing: Making Sense of Marketing Attribution in association with Adobe
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Published November 2012
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Contents
1. Foreword by Adobe .......................................................... 4
2. Momentum for attribution grows as marketers reap benefits ............................................................................. 5
3. Mobile and social drive adoption .................................... 9
4. Single touch point models dominate but technology is evolving ........................................................................... 11
5. An unexpected danger; the internal politics of attribution ...................................................................... 14
6. ‘All models are wrong, some are useful’ – finding the right starting point ......................................................... 16
7. Digital attribution is a great start ... but online is only part of the picture .......................................................... 18
8. Looking ahead: the unifying principle for achieving success and the future of attribution ............................. 22
9. Appendix: Respondent profiles ..................................... 25
9.1. Geography ............................................................................... 26
9.2. Business sector ........................................................................ 27
9.3. Business focus ......................................................................... 28
9.4. Size of company by revenue .................................................... 29
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1. Foreword by Adobe We are delighted to bring you our last Quarterly Digital Intelligence Briefing of 2012, which is
devoted to the fascinating but sometimes complex topic of attribution.
Our current advertising campaign is aimed at debunking a range of myths which plague
marketing, such as ‘social media is worthless’, ‘half of your ad spend is wasted’ and ‘marketers
hate Big Data’.
The importance of attribution in helping to dispel these myths is obvious, and our range of
solutions, including Adobe Analytics, Adobe Media Optimizer and Adobe Social, are aimed
squarely at helping marketers derive maximum understanding and value from their marketing.
There are two main factors which we see as driving interest in marketing attribution. Firstly, in an
increasingly multichannel world, the path to purchase is becoming more complex with companies
keen to gain insight around the interplay of different channels across both online and offline, and
paid-for and ‘earned’ media.
Secondly, in difficult economic times, attribution has become an important tool for businesses
wanting to understand how they can more effectively apportion budgets. Marketers are becoming
more accountable for their activities and are under increasing pressure to reduce and optimise
their spending. For the largest businesses, small improvements in the efficiency of their
marketing can translate into millions saved.
It is encouraging to see that most companies surveyed are now carrying out some form of
attribution, and that those who are doing so are reaping a tangible benefit. However, it is also
apparent from the research that significant numbers of companies are struggling with attribution,
especially the largest organisations within the sample (with annual revenues of more than £50m).
The larger companies are more likely to cite technology limitations as a barrier to attribution, and
less likely to be integrating offline touch points into their modelling.
At Adobe, we believe that we are perfectly positioned to offer the best enterprise solutions for
attribution because our platforms encompass a full range of channels, with the ability to scale as
our clients add more data and to translate this information into something marketers can action.
Our technology also brings with it the flexibility which is necessary for success with attribution.
The research shows that companies with a flexible attribution model are significantly more likely
to reap substantial benefits. Our attribution solutions offer both flexibility as well as the ability to
optimise models quickly by making iterative improvements.
Those looking for attribution technology should also keep one eye on the future. Predictive
analytics will play an increasingly important role in helping companies improve their digital
campaigns without the need for analysts and marketers to interpret huge swathes of data.
Neil Morgan
Senior Director, Digital Marketing Solutions, EMEA
Adobe
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2. Momentum for attribution grows as
marketers reap benefits This briefing, based on a survey of more than 700 companies and agencies carried out in October
2012, provides a useful perspective on the extent to which businesses are using and benefiting
from marketing attribution.
In product lifecycle terms, marketing attribution is now past the ‘early adopters’ phase and well
into ‘early majority’ territory, with just over half (54%) of responding companies doing this in
some shape or form and a quarter (26%) now allocating credit on the basis of more than just the
last click [Figure 1].
Figure 1: Do you (or your clients) typically carry out any type of marketing
attribution?
The next two charts show why more companies are taking attribution seriously. The vast majority
of respondents say that attribution has benefited their organisation, of whom between a quarter
and a third (29%) say that the benefit has been ‘major’.
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Figure 2: Has the marketing attribution you (or your clients) have carried out
benefited your (or their) organisation?
The reasons for marketers carrying out attribution are highlighted in Figure 3 which shows the
three main benefits, namely ‘justifying digital spending’ (cited by 70% of responding companies),
‘building an understanding of the customer journey’ (66%) and ‘optimising the media mix’
(58%).
What is the most significant change you (or your clients) have made as a result of marketing attribution management?
“As we only use last click it has opened up more questions that we are now attempting to answer by bringing in a
more robust attribution model/solution.”
“We have discovered that Facebook works much better as an awareness source i.e. first click and Google works best as an assisted/last source. Hence, we divided our budgets accordingly.”
“Looking at ways we can track all of our activity – everywhere. Now moving to work out the dependencies between the various channels and calls to action to try and identify an attribution model.”
“Changing from a simple last click attribution model and positioning the benefits of a multichannel approach.”
“The main changes have been operational and cultural. One particularly large client has installed a global program to recruit local market individuals to champion attribution management.”
“Slightly more informed consideration of media influence upstream of PPC last click. A renewed appraisal of premium display’s role, value of reach and frequency.”
“The clear demonstration that different channels and keywords work alongside one another and together. This prevented budgets being cut from areas that were actually performing a key assist role.”
“Understanding the role of each media and attributing spend based on the value of each touch point. It also has
an effect on bringing tracking into best practice for campaigns and reinforcing the importance of accurate tracking, robust reporting and reducing ‘knee-jerk’ optimisations mid campaign.”
Survey respondents
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Figure 3: How has marketing attribution benefited your organisation / clients?
These significant benefits beg the question as to why many companies are either not carrying out
marketing attribution whatsoever (the ‘laggards’) or relying entirely on the last click approach.
Is there any specific approach to marketing attribution which has been particularly effective?
“Telephone tracking from online to offline and integration of software with database for full ROI.”
“A more granular approach to decision making – it’s easy to assume a channel isn’t working when the overall CPA is high, but if you can see down to an individual campaign level you can optimise your campaigns.”
“Determining the points of interaction and the digital marketing mix necessary to generate conversions (multiple sources of visits prior to conversion).”
“Daily monitoring is rather more effective than weekly. Each day of the week has its own behaviour.”
“Not just relating actions and success to ‘sales’ but also understanding the value of negative / positive sentiment and other values.”
“Specific phone numbers for specific web pages and individual codes in Google Analytics for individual
ads/projects.”
“Trying to get as much data as possible to understand all of the touch points.”
Survey respondents
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The reasons for this inertia are seen in Figure 4 below, principally a lack of knowledge (around
what is involved and what can be achieved) and also technology limitations (especially among the
largest companies).
By relying solely on last-click attribution many companies are sub-consciously making a bet based
on Pareto’s Law, namely that they are getting 80% of the benefit based on 20% of the effort.
The last-click-wins approach has served the digital industry well, and is a tidy and effective way of
allocating credit in a digital environment where direct response and performance have flourished
using this formula.
However, in an increasingly multichannel and data-driven world, a reliance solely on last click
now represents a major gamble when more granular (and actionable) information is readily
available.
Client-side respondents
Figure 4: What is the main reason you don’t carry out marketing attribution?
Note: This cross-tabulation is based on the annual revenue of responding companies.
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3. Mobile and social drive adoption For many companies, the proliferation of devices, including smartphones and tablets, has
accelerated the adoption of attribution technology.
Marketers will always strive for a ‘single customer view’ which relies on successfully incorporating
all channels and touch points to map consumer behaviour along the entire journey to purchase.
Mobile has moved to centre stage because of its ability to bridge the gap between offline and
online channels. A consumer can see an outdoor ad, and research the product online immediately
on their phone, or scan a QR code to be taken directly to a site. Emailed online vouchers can also
be redeemed in an offline store, using a mobile code or coupon.
Of course, the all-pervasive nature of mobile is a mixed blessing for marketers trying to build
accurate attribution models, with more respondents agreeing than disagreeing that ‘increased use
of mobile makes attribution very difficult’.
Cross-device tracking is an issue not easily solved, though attribution vendors are working on
ways to help companies understand an individual’s behaviour across different devices.
Figure 5: Impact of mobile and social on attribution
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Social has also been instrumental in building the momentum of attribution marketing. With more
internal resources and media spend being diverted to social platforms, marketers have turned to
attribution to explain social’s return on investment in terms of directly and indirectly driven sales,
rather than just counting the number of ‘likes’ or sometimes woolly analysis around ‘engagement’.
Attribution is enabling marketers to back up their hunch that investing in social channels makes
sense, whether they are focusing their efforts on building a Facebook brand page or Twitter
account, or investing significant media spend on social network display advertising.
Figure 5 on the previous page shows opinions on whether the focus on attribution has been
increased by mobile and social. Agency respondents felt most strongly about the impact of mobile,
with 65% agreeing that the rise of mobile had concentrated minds in this area. Just under half
(49%) of client-side respondents felt the same way.
Slightly fewer respondents felt that social was driving more attention to attribution, with 58% of
agency respondents and 43% of client-side respondents agreeing that this was the case.
In summary, the desire to understand what impact these less understood channels have on
purchase behaviour is driving the adoption of attribution solutions, which can help to assign
actual value to each channel’s contribution to a sale. Increases in budgets for the newer channels
means that marketers are being held more accountable for their spend, therefore proof of ROI is
vital.
Has marketing attribution given you any specific insights about social media marketing?
“It’s not just an engagement forum but also a relevant conversion driving factor.”
“At least for Facebook, we’ve been able to correlate brand advocacy with purchase frequency.”
“Not social media marketing in particular, rather social media advertising. Facebook advertising represents
almost 60% of our digital spend and has a very high conversion rate.”
“Not really other than there does not appear to be a strong correlation between social media marketing and
conversions, or even support in mid-funnel strategies.”
“Social media is less of a transactional environment at the moment, even with the rise of f-commerce. It remains
an important touch point for relevant engagement and updates on the brand / products. In turn this drives
traffic to other media channels and increases the propensity of purchase.”
“Not to focus on ROI, and to rethink why they are on those pages. It’s very 101, but it hits home when you show
them the numbers.”
“Some but it’s still difficult to prove how social media has influenced a certain number of sales.”
“Trying to quantify the spend specifically with Facebook in terms of building relationships is still challenging, but
the concept is easier to push with this data.”
“Social media whilst not being the most profitable channel is a definitive requirement for the customer journey
and enhancement of brand advocacy.”
Survey respondents
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4. Single touch point models dominate but
technology is evolving Like any marketing performance analysis tool, attribution is most effective when you define
marketing goals and closely examine the typical customer journey (including the average number
of touch points and time to conversion). However, most organisations get stuck with the most
common attribution models because they’re satisfied when these methods validate their current
theories.
As shown in Section 2, over half of those carrying out marketing attribution still attribute the
entire conversion value to the last channel with which the customer interacted before converting.
The choice of attribution model influences the perceived value of a campaign, but also affects
future budgets in terms of how much money marketers allocate to a specific channel versus other
channels (either digital or traditional).
Separate Adobe research1 showed that, for search, there is a 38% increase in the value per visitor
when moving from a last click model to first click attribution. Social had similar results, meaning
that last click attribution undervalues those channels that are more influential in generating
awareness rather than in triggering a purchase decision.
Figure 6: Apart from ‘last click’, what methods do you (or your clients) use for
marketing attribution?
1 http://success.adobe.com/en/na/programs/digital-index/1205_18011_social_media.html
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The frequently mentioned fragmentation of the media landscape has started to undermine the use
of last-touch methods of correlating conversions to marketing efforts, with major implications for
budget allocations and ultimately marketing effectiveness.
Despite the limitations associated with using a single touch point attribution model (such as
undervaluing marketing efforts that influence the middle portion of the funnel), first click and
first touch are some of the most popular methods used by marketers surveyed [Figure 6].
Experimentation is essential when it comes to effective attribution and the best attribution
modelling tools now allow marketers to explore alternative attribution models, such as:
Position-based – assigns credit based on the position in the customer journey, with first
and last interactions typically getting the most credit.
Time decay – assigns the most credit to interactions that occur nearest to the time of
conversion. This model is best suited for campaigns with short sales cycles, such as time-
sensitive promotions or deals.
Even allocation (linear) – every marketing touch within a defined period of time receives
an equal share of credit for the conversion.
Custom approach – create custom credit weightings based on position, type of interaction,
traffic source etc.
Organisations that seek to move beyond basic, single touch point models, typically face two key
challenges: a traditional corporate culture that rewards success of an individual channel rather
than the company’s overall success and a lack of consolidated data warehouses.
Figure 7: How do you (or your clients) typically carry out marketing attribution?
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Despite recent advances in attribution modelling technology, around two in five organisations
surveyed either carry out attribution manually or using spreadsheets. Figure 8 shows that
marketing attribution is most likely to benefit organisations who use custom-built technology,
with almost half (46%) of these saying that the benefit has been ‘major’. This compares to just
18% of those who use spreadsheets.
Our analysis also revealed that larger organisations (earning more than £50m each year) are
more likely to carry out marketing attribution using vendor technology (31% compared to a fifth
of smaller companies).
Client-side respondents
Figure 8: How do you typically carry out marketing attribution?
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5. An unexpected danger; the internal
politics of attribution Among the highest barriers to effectively implementing attribution are two human factors; the
availability of analysts and internal politics.
The first has become a routine challenge to all types of marketing organisation as they grapple
with new priorities around data and technology and the people they require. Finding analysts can
be difficult, but is essentially a straightforward HR problem and meanwhile the market is slowly
but surely increasing the supply of skilled people.
The issues involved when attribution runs into internal politics are often more intractable,
because they go to the core of how a marketing operation is organised, and worse,
implementation can collide with human nature.
Figure 9: What are the two greatest barriers to / preventing your clients from
using attribution more effectively?
Channel politics are like any other kind, boiling down to money and influence. When marketing is
confined to silos, influence and compensation naturally coalesce around key budget areas.
Although overarching strategic goals should transcend channels’ self-interest, specialists will
naturally emphasise the role that their tactic plays in the marketing mix.
The perceived danger of attribution is that it can rock the boat, undercutting the perceived value
of a channel’s role in the customer journey and endangering continued or increased investment.
Frequently, concerns arise at the point where an organisation is transitioning from a single click
model (first click or last click) to one that examines more of the funnel (linear, custom, etc.). It’s
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assumed that any single click model will over-reward whatever channels naturally fall in that
point of the purchase process that the model studies (display and first click, for example, or paid
search and last click).
In reality the dangers to channel operations appear to be slim, at least for people on the digital
side of the marketing fence. Most attribution studies tend to benefit digital as a whole, bolstering
investment across the board, at least for now. As online spending comes in line with audience
media consumption, the rising tide will find equilibrium.
However, perception is reality when it comes to self-interest. Organisations need to get ahead of
channel-level concerns before problems arise. Companies have successfully confronted these
issues in a number of ways:
Reorienting bonus compensation away from specific channels by setting goals that reflect
the entirety of the customer journey. If there’s one lesson of most attribution studies,
it’s that no one marketing event carries the load in most purchases, online or offline. As this
understanding grows, it makes sense to align marketing compensation with better optimising
the whole of the process instead of isolated metrics.
‘Selling’ attribution internally as a positive for all. Change is generally a scary prospect,
especially when jobs are theoretically on the line. Attribution should be positioned as a better
way to understand customers and the contribution of marketing to sales, because it is. By
making it clear that attribution usually leads to more budget for marketing (offline media
notwithstanding), understanding can outweigh concern.
At a macro-level, shifting away from silos entirely. Fortunately, many companies are
already moving away from a highly structured to more flexible models where digital is
integrated instead of broken into silos. In these organisations, analytics and testing are often
already acculturated, making the transition to attribution a smooth one.
For organisations looking at the future of implementation of attribution, dealing with politics is a
sunken log, unnoticed until the leak is sprung. While roughly 30% of all respondents described
internal issues as critical, only 8% of respondents say that politics is keeping them from adopting
attribution.
This disparity represents a significant lack of knowledge and preparedness. This danger is
especially acute for larger organisations, where institutional momentum can make a rapid
response challenging.
For those in more vertical corporate cultures, thinking ahead about the human interests involved
will accelerate the process of adopting an attribution-based budgeting system.
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6. ‘All models are wrong, some are useful’
– finding the right starting point It was the statistician George Box who said in the late 1970s that ‘all models are wrong, some are
useful’.
This is particularly true in the world of marketing attribution management, where marketers and
analysts are often relying on imperfect attribution models. The majority of marketers (58%)
surveyed for this research [Figure 10] believe that ‘a perfect attribution model is impossible’
compared to only 17% who disagree.
With respect to those who believe in the flawless model, attribution can rarely be a perfect
science. The more complex the attribution model, the more likely it is to be flawed or partly based
on unscientific assumptions.
Attribution comes in all shapes and sizes, ranging from the optimisation of paid search, affiliate
marketing and (or) display to more sophisticated modelling which incorporates offline CRM.
Figure 10: ‘A perfect attribution model is impossible’
While the blend of technology and data can help, there is no one-size-fits-all approach or single
formula for success.
Crucially, the right approach depends on what you are trying to achieve, as neatly described by
Mike Teasdale2 who compares attribution to an in-car SatNav: “The analogy I like is that this
2 http://econsultancy.com/blog/11038-new-attribution-report-helps-marketers-identify-the-right-supplier
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technology is like GPS – it can get you to your destination but you still need to decide where you
want to go.”
Marketers want tangible answers to tangible questions, without having to re-build their
organisation from the ground up in order to overcome barriers to a more holistic approach to
attribution.
Here are some examples of some channel-specific questions around media mix optimisation
which attribution can help to solve:
To what extent is the affiliate channel truly adding incremental sales? Are certain types of
affiliate being too generously (or insufficiently) remunerated?
Can we more accurately value the role of display advertising by incorporating impression-
level as well as click-through data?
How is our Facebook brand page publishing activity impacting on the performance of our
paid-for Facebook advertising?
If we stop bidding on brand terms, how will that impact our combined paid search and
SEO activity?
It is no surprise that companies dipping their toes into the water are starting with more basic
attribution modelling which focuses on a specific digital channel (or a relatively narrow selection
of digital channels).
At best, this type of isolated attribution, for example focusing on the relationship between display
advertising and paid search, at least focuses the minds of marketers with the promise of tangible
outcomes relating to relative media spend.
For many companies starting out, the KISS acronym applies (‘keep it simple stupid’).
At worst, it could be argued that a channel-specific approach to attribution is inherently flawed,
especially when driven by technology associated with channel-centric platforms.
The nirvana for attribution modelling is a single view which takes into account as many touch
points as possible, without an inherent bias to one type of channel. Is the ad serving or search
technology company providing the attribution tool the best option for a holistic approach?
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7. Digital attribution is a great start ... but
online is only part of the picture The chart below shows the extent to which a range of online and offline channels are incorporated
into marketing attribution.
It is evident that companies are much more likely to be focusing on digital. The reasons for this
are obvious. Digital is inherently easier to track, with internet users leaving a trail of data which
enables web analysts to map the customer journey in a way which leaves marketers who
remember the pre-digital world licking their lips.
And it is no surprise to see email, paid search and natural search (SEO) towards the top of the
leader board, since these channels are most likely to be playing an integral role within the online
marketing mix.
In the case of paid search, budgets are likely to be highest, something which focuses minds on the
channel’s ROI and relationship with other channels, most notably SEO and display. In the case of
email, one of its strengths is the ability to track its effectiveness and role within the customer
journey, with interaction easy to associate with named individuals.
Client-side respondents
Figure 11: What channels are included as part of your marketing attribution?
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Attribution within a limited range of digital channels can be difficult enough. Moving away from
the online sphere, it can become fiendishly complicated for a number of practical, political and
technical reasons explored in other sections of this report.
This difficulty is evidenced by Figure 12 below, which shows that marketers surveyed are more
likely to disagree than agree that they ‘incorporate offline touch points into their attribution
models’. And it is no surprise that survey respondents from the largest companies are significantly
more likely to disagree [Figure 13].
Figure 12: ‘We / our clients incorporate offline touch points into our / their
attribution models’
When judging the effectiveness of their offline channels, some companies are no further away
from the day when Viscount Leverhulme famously said that he wasn’t sure which half of the
advertising budget for his soap and cleaning products empire was wasted.
Brand marketers seeking to address this problem have historically carried out econometric
modelling to try to understand what happens to sales when they change the balance between
different types of media spending.
Attribution technology can now bring marketers closer to the holy grail of a single customer view,
by joining up data from the online and offline world, relating to both brand advertising and direct
response marketing.
Of course, it is never possible to know exactly what magazine advert someone saw, or verbal
recommendation they had from a friend, but some companies are getting closer to a fuller picture.
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Client-side respondents
Figure 13: ‘We incorporate offline touch points into our attribution models’
Note: This cross-tabulation is based on the annual revenue of responding companies.
How are companies joining up data for multichannel attribution?
Joining up online and offline data. Multichannel attribution involves building an
understanding of the customer journey, informed by web data and CRM data which are
commonly disconnected. Those companies able to harness web data to improve offline
marketing (and vice versa) can gain a competitive advantage.
In the world of retail, including point of sale (POS) data within the attribution model to
understand online to in-store is a huge opportunity.
According to a BestBuy / Adobe Insight case study3 (link to PDF), the retailer’s mobile
websites and apps are the ‘glue’ which bind the online and offline channels. Their data
analysis found that the lifetime store value of the multichannel mobile customer increases by
over 45% if they visit any Local Store or Store Finders online.
QR codes can play an important role, and these will gradually be superseded by near-field
communication (NFC) technology which is less clunky.
Of course, it isn’t just retailers who can join up online and offline data. Other examples
include marketers using special URLs or suggested search terms on television adverts and
outdoor advertising to understand the impact of TV on search and online activity, or
customised telephone numbers on their websites to help them understand the customer
journey as it moves from online to offline and back.
Attribution across multiple screens. Consumers are viewing multiple streams of content
simultaneously, across a range of devices, including smartphones, tablets and TVs. Web
3 http://adobe.ly/Xg4Id4 (PDF)
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analytics expert Avinash Kaushik gives a good example of a conundrum facing marketers
here4:
“An example [of multichannel attribution across multiple screens] is the ability to
understand that a search I did on my tablet computer while watching a television
commercial resulted in a click on a paid search ad to a camera site which logged into
my memory which later caused me to read reviews of the camera on my Nexus S while
stuck in traffic and that finally caused a sale for Sony when I got home and happened to
be on my laptop.”
The harsh reality, according to Kaushik, is that accurately describing how credit should be
apportioned in this instance is not possible. Of course, there are ways of building a picture of how
customers are behaving across devices (and allocated credit for conversions), for example if
visitors log into your website across different devices or you have a loyalty programme which
helps to bridge the chasm.
Client-side respondents
Figure 14: ‘We incorporate offline touch points into our attribution models’
4 http://www.kaushik.net/avinash/multi-channel-attribution-definitions-models/
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8. Looking ahead: the unifying principle
for achieving success and the future of
attribution Attribution presents a significant challenge that’s worth overcoming. At its apex, the practice can
excavate the truth about how people relate to marketing, and how marketing channels relate to
each other. In the relatively new terrain of multichannel marketing, it’s more common to vastly
over-count or under-count the impact of these relationships than it is to get it right, and that’s
expensive.
This report has identified a number of keys to attribution success, all of which contribute beyond
the practice itself by raising the game of the marketing organisation. For example, mastering
attribution also means having to come to grips with technical hurdles (Section 4), integrating
offline and online knowledge (Section 7) and even addressing structural issues in the organisation
that hold back innovation (Section 5).
The recipes for meeting these disparate challenges appear to include the common ingredient of
flexibility – in business adoption, technology and, of course, in attribution modelling and how it’s
applied.
Figure 15: How flexible is your (or your typical client’s) attribution system?
Attribution is about people; how they think and react to different circumstances at different
times. That’s why we’re never finished in conducting attribution studies, nor can we arrive at a
perfect model (see Section 6). This suggests that analysts are best served by being able to apply
and build from different models as circumstances require them.
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However, most organisations aren’t yet approaching attribution with this mindset. Only 31% of
marketers describe their modelling as ‘very’ or ‘somewhat flexible’ while over 43% describe
themselves as ‘not flexible at all’. Somewhat surprisingly, larger organisations are more
entrenched, despite having presumably greater analytical and technical resources – 51% of
respondent companies with over £50 million in revenues self-describe as ‘not flexible at all’
compared to less than a third of smaller organisations.
Underscoring the importance of a nimble approach to attribution modelling, Figure 16 shows a
clearly defined correlation between the ability to bring multiple schemes to bear (‘very flexible’)
and extracting a ‘major benefit’ from attribution overall. Those describing their approach as ‘not
flexible at all’ are less than half as likely as their most flexible peers to experience the most
powerful benefits of attribution.
Client-side respondents
Figure 16: How flexible is your attribution system?
Flexibility is one of the dimensions with which we can describe the evolution of attribution. Other
aspects of that evolution include the move from a single click approach to more holistic models,
and the progression of related technologies, as well as the integration of channels beyond search,
and ultimately beyond digital.
This evolution is by no means predictable, nor does it progress at even intervals, but in general
terms, we can see organisations moving away from the black and white of last click attribution
toward the multi-hued nuance of custom models and from spreadsheets to integrated
technologies.
But, the industry is just beginning to understand where the pursuit of attribution will take it.
Today we look at audience and segments, and are limited in our ability to explore online/offline
effects. The future of attribution is one-on-one and truly multichannel. And, like business
analytics as a whole, it’s moving from a mix of describing the present and predicting the future
toward an ultimate goal of suggesting what to do with that information.
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Even in the age of Big Data and the widespread use of instant analytics, the majority of the
metrics that marketers access are simply descriptive – they tell us what’s happened in the past,
and like weather forecasters in the 1970s, we’re left to assume that what happened yesterday is
the most likely outcome for tomorrow. Anyone who has lived through the first decade or so of the
digital revolution in marketing knows very well how incorrect that assumption can be.
Fortunately, many disciplines have already moved, or are moving, into the standardisation of
predictive analytics, where descriptive data are processed using algorithms and/or additional
data to determine what outcomes are probable and how probable they are.
But, knowing the future (or a limited, blurry version of it) is only helpful if you know how to
change the outcomes you’re interested in. Prescriptive analytics take the next step by asking the
question ‘why’ and using the answer to suggest and evaluate actions that can take advantage of
predicted outcomes by optimising opportunity or mitigating risk.
For attribution, prescription is a natural and important step, but one that’s going to take many
organisations significant time to support. Assembling the experience and information to correctly
evaluate and respond to future-looking business analytics is a demanding step, but one that’s
likely to be a real leap for marketing as a discipline.
Ultimately, attribution will incorporate the ability to predict future outcomes with the original
promise of digital; one-to-one marketing. With sufficient data and insight coupled with
processing power, marketing will move beyond generalising about segments and channels.
Individual behaviours and characteristics will be integrated into the attribution model itself,
giving marketers not just insights, but specific and successful actions with predictable outcomes
at the customer level.
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9. Appendix: Respondent profiles This seventh Quarterly Digital Intelligence Briefing is based on an online survey of more than 700
client-side and agency respondents, carried out in October 2012.
Figure 17: Which of the following best describes your company or role?
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9.1. Geography The majority of respondents are based in the UK. Just under a fifth (17%) of respondents are
based in North America and 16% in Europe (non-UK). Other countries and regions represented
include Australia, South America and the Middle East.
Figure 18: In which country / region are you (personally) based?
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9.2. Business sector Respondents work across a wide range of different industry sectors. The best represented sectors
are retail and mail order (16%), financial services (12%), professional services (10%) and education (9%). Just over a quarter of respondents (27%) specify ‘other’ as their sector. Other
sectors included public sector/not-for profit and IT.
Figure 19: In which business sector is your organisation?
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9.3. Business focus The chart below shows to what extent businesses are focused on B2B, B2C, or both. Just under
half of respondents (46%) are exclusively focused on B2C, while around a third (32%) are B2B
focused. Just over a fifth (22%) are focused on both B2B and B2C.
Figure 20: Is your business focused more on B2B or B2C?
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9.4. Size of company by revenue The chart below shows the annual revenue of responding (client-side) organisations.
At the upper end of the scale, around half (51%) of client-side respondents outside the UK earn more than £50m each year.
Client-side respondents Figure 21: What is your annual company turnover?