adopting a new business model - seeking alpha

25
Adopting a New Business Model March 2021

Upload: others

Post on 12-Dec-2021

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Adopting a New Business Model March 2021

Page 2: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

DisclaimerForward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that Extraction Oil and Gas, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, the “Company” or “Extraction”) expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “estimate,” “project,” “foresee,” “should,” “would,” “could,” or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward-looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include estimates of the Company’s reserves, expectations of plans, strategies, objectives and anticipated financial and operating results, including as to the Company’s drilling program, production, hedging activities, capital expenditure levels, distributions to shareholders, repayment of debt, and other guidance included in this presentation. While presented with numerical specificity, these statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments, future business decisions and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number ofassumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. The Company cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas and oil. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability of drilling and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, potential reductions in the borrowing base under our revolving credit facility, the timing of development expenditures, and the other risks described in our filings with the Securities Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2020, and in our press releases.

All information contained herein, including any estimates or projections with respect to future performance, have been provided to assist you in your evaluation of the Company but should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of such future results. There can be no assurance that the results implied or expressed in any forward-looking statements or information or the underlying assumptions will be realized and that actual results of operations or future events will not be materially different from the results implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements or information. Under no circumstances should the inclusion of the forward-looking statements be regarded as a representation, undertaking, warranty or prediction by the Company or any other person with respect to the accuracy thereof or the accuracy of the underlying assumptions, or that the Company will achieve or is likely to achieve any particular results. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Recipients are cautioned that forward-looking statements or information are not guarantees of future performance and, accordingly, recipients are expressly cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information due to the inherent uncertainty therein.

Industry and Market DataThis presentation has been prepared by the Company and includes market data and other statistical information from sources believed by it to be reliable, including independent industry publications, government publications or other published independent sources. Some data are also based on the Company’s good faith estimates, which are derived from its review of internal sources as well as the independent sources described above. Although the Company believes these sources are reliable, it has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresThis presentation may include financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), including [Adjusted] EBITDAX, Net Debt, Discretionary Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow. While management believes that such measures are useful for investors, they should not be used as a replacement for financial measures that are in accordance with GAAP. For a reconciliation of [Adjusted] EBITDAX, Net Debt, Discretionary Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow to the nearest comparable measures in accordance with GAAP, please see the Appendix.

Oil & Gas ReservesThe Company’s proved reserves are those quantities of oil and gas, which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible—from a given date forward, from known reservoirs, and under existing economic conditions (using the trailing 12-month average first-day-of-the-month prices), operating methods, and government regulations—prior to the time at which contracts providing the right to operate expire, unless evidence indicates that renewal is reasonably certain, regardless of whether deterministic or probabilistic methods are used for the estimation. In this presentation, proved reserves attributable to the Company at December 31, 2020 are estimated utilizing SEC reserve recognition standards and pricing assumptions based on the trailing 12-month average first-day -of-the-month prices of $39.57/Bbl for oil and $1.99/MMBtu for natural gas. These prices were adjusted by lease for quality, transportation fees, geographical differentials, marketing bonuses or deductions and other factors affecting the price received at the wellhead. The Company’s estimate of its total proved reserves is based on reports prepared by Ryder Scott Company, L.P., independent petroleum engineers. The Company may use the terms “EUR” and “upside potential” to describe estimates of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons that the SEC rules prohibit from being included in filings with the SEC. These are based on internal estimates of hydrocarbon quantities that may be potentially discovered through exploratory drilling or recovered with additional drilling or recovery techniques. These quantities may not constitute “reserves” within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineer’s Petroleum Resource Management System or SEC rules. These estimates are inherently more speculative than proved reserves estimates. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company’s interests could differ substantially. There is no commitment by the Company to drill all of the drilling locations, which have been attributed to these quantities. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals, actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates, and other factors. Estimates may change significantly as development of the Company’s oil and natural gas assets provide additional data. The Company’s production forecasts and expectations for future periods are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the undertaking and outcome of future drilling activity, which may be affected by significant commodity price declines or drilling cost increases.

2

Page 3: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

3

Low-Cost Operations Drive Cash Flow GenerationControllable cost structure(1) below $7.00 per BOE in 2021

Strong Balance Sheet Facilitates Cash Returns to ShareholdersLeverage <1x Adj EBITDAX(3), no material MVCs, ~$270MM cash and available RBL

Rigorous Capital Allocation – Delivering ROCE(2) Materially Above WACCDisciplined reinvestment, focus on returns and distributions to shareholders

Leading Edge, Aligned Compensation Structure100% of management incentive comp and director annual fees tied directly to absolute share price performance

Leveraging Regulatory Expertise into ESG Leadership

Continuing Focus on Consolidation OpportunitiesEnhanced shareholder returns through synergies, scale economics, increase market relevance and liquidity

1) Includes G&A, LOE, transportation and marketing.2) ROCE calculated as EBIT / (Average net debt + equity value).3) See disclaimer and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures in Appendix.

Page 4: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Company StatisticsQ4-20 Production, Boepd 82,944 (62% liquids)

Net Acreage (core DJ Basin) 140,000

YE-20 PDP PV-10, $MM (March 1, 2021 strip pricing) $1,183

2020 Adjusted EBITDAX(3), $MM $449

Number of Employees 121

4

Pure-Play DJ Basin Operator at Front End of North American E&P Cost Curve

Market Statistics (as of March 15, 2021)Ticker (Nasdaq) XOG

Share Price $34.50

Market Cap(1), $MM $887

Total Debt, $MM $254

Enterprise Value(2), $MM $1,115

Corporate Overview

1) Market Cap calculated as share price times shares outstanding using Extraction’s closing share price as of March 15, 2021 and share count of 25.7 million shares.2) Enterprise Value calculated as market cap plus total debt less cash.3) See disclaimer and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures in Appendix. Includes $43MM of realized proceeds from post-2020 hedges that were liquidated during 2020.

Page 5: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

$5.31 $6.08 $6.67$7.68 $7.76 $8.57 $8.58

$9.90 $10.01$12.11

$13.37

$19.10

$27.10

A B 2021EXOG

C D E F G H I J K L

5

4Q20 Cash Costs ($/Boe)

XOG Controllable Costs

Source: Based on latest SEC filings, company investor presentations and court filings.Note: Peers include BCEI, BRY, CDEV, CRC, HPR, LPI, MGY, OAS, PDCE, PVAC, QEP, WLL; cash costs include G&A, LOE, transportation and marketing.

Continuing Focus on Cost Structure

DJ Basin Peer

$1.17

$2.50

$3.00

$8.15

$6.67

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

2020A 2021E

G&A LOE GP&T

Page 6: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

0%

10%

20%

30%

$40 WTI $50 WTI $60 WTI $70 WTI

6

• Disciplined allocation of cash flow among capital projects, debt repayment, shareholder distributions

• 2021: ~1 rig and ~1 completion crew focused inGreeley and Windsor areas

• 86% of production guidance composed of YE-20 PDP(2)

• Actively pursuing small leasehold acquisitions and swaps to increase near-term working interest

• Goal is to maximize returns at the corporate level

2021 Guidance

Production66 – 74 Mboepd

(36 - 38% oil; 59 - 63% liquids)

WTI Differential (beg. 2Q21) (1) $6.00 - $7.00/Bbl

Production Tax Expense 8 – 9% of revenue less T&M

Lease Operating Expense $2.25 – $2.75/Boe

T&M Expense (beg. 2Q21) (1) $2.75 – $3.25/Boe

Recurring Cash G&A $29 – 31MM

Drill & Complete Capex $140 – 180MM

Land Net Capex $10 – 20MM

1) Based on $60/Bbl oil and $2.80/Mmbtu gas.2) Based on Ryder Scott YE20 as prepared reserve report.3) Illustrative ROCE represents 2021E EBITDA less estimated DD&A divided by average 2021 net debt plus market cap as of March 15, 2021. DD&A subject to change as a result of

fresh-start reporting. Price sensitivities apply to March 2021 onwards.

Illustrative 2021 Return on Capital Employed(3)

Rigorous Capital Allocation

Page 7: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$40 WTI $50 WTI $60 WTI $70 WTI

FCF

Yiel

d

Free

Cas

h Fl

ow ($

mm

)

FCF FCF Yield

Capitalization as of March 15 Capital Structure Highlights

Feb-Dec 21 Free Cash Flow(1) Generation

7

• Strong balance sheet facilitates free cash flow(1) generation

• Only debt is RBL credit facility(3)

• Production taxes payable to decrease by ~$60MM by 2Q21

• Expect to be debt free by year-end 2021, allowing for implementation of shareholder distribution policy

($ in millions)

Strong Balance Sheet and Free Cash Focus

1) See disclaimer and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures in Appendix. Price sensitivities apply to March 2021 onwards. FCF is annualized only for the FCF Yield calculation.2) Market Cap calculated as share price times shares outstanding using Extraction’s closing share price as of March 15, 2021 and share count of 25.7MM shares.3) July 2024 maturity. $500MM borrowing base to be redetermined May and November 2021.4) Excludes cash and derivatives.

LeverageCash and Equivalents $26

Revolving Credit Facility $254Total Net Debt Outstanding $228Total Market Cap(2) $887

Total Net Debt / 2020 EBITDAX(1) 0.5xTotal Net Debt / Total Capitalization 20%

LiquidityBorrowing Base $500Amount Drawn ($254)Letters of Credit ($1)Cash and Equivalents $26Total Liquidity $272

Net Working Capital(4)

Jan 31, 2021 Estimate ($200)

Page 8: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

8

Leadership Aligned with Shareholders

Share Price Performance(3-Year CAGR)

% of Target Shares Earned

20% or greater 200%

10% 100%

0% 50%

Less than 0% 0%

Management Incentive Comp• 100% XOG restricted stock

• 25% time vest (ratably over three years)

• 75% vest based on share price performance (three-year cliff)

• No annual cash incentive compensation

Director Compensation• 100% of annual fee paid in deferred stock

• Shares not delivered until Board service ends

• Annual elections

Page 9: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Leveraging Regulatory Expertise into ESG Leadership

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

LPIOASBCEIGWPHPRPDCEQEPCDEVXOG0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2017 2018 2019

15.92

13.91

10.64

CO

2e E

mis

sion

s In

tens

ity (m

t CO

2e/M

MBo

e)

23.5% Reduction

12.6% Reduction

33.2% Reduction

2019 GHG Intensity (mt CO2e/MMBOE) vs Peers Year-over-Year Emissions Intensity Reductions

• Reduced total scope 1 GHG emissions by ~15% since 2019

• Reduced scope 1 emissions intensity by 33% since 2017

• Engaged Project Canary for real-time air monitoring and Trustwell® facility certification

Source: EPA Greenhouse Gas Model

9

Page 10: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

ExtractionCrestone Peak BonanzaHighPointGreat WesternPDC Energy

Strategic Focus on Consolidation Opportunities

• The DJ Basin is a natural venue for consolidation/merger activity

• High quality rock with consistent geology• Opportunities to optimize operations

under regulated environment• Scale leverages ESG opportunities

• Consolidation improves efficiencies and returns

• Allows for further cost reductions, improved cash margins and greater FCF(1) generation

• XOG is committed to pursuing all alternatives that are in the best interest of shareholders

10

Select DJ Basin Leasehold Positions

1) See disclaimer and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures in Appendix.

Page 11: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Asset and Operations Overview

Page 12: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Same Assets, Dramatically Improved Economics

12

Greeley

Northern Colorado

Windsor

Hawkeye

XOG DJ Basin Leasehold

West Weld

SW Weld/ Broomfield

• 140,000 core net acres in the DJ• 97,000 Other Rockies net acres

• 432 locations as of year-end 2020• Fully upspaced inventory count assuming

only 6-15 wells per section• ~8 years of inventory assuming 1

continuous rig

• New gathering contracts and lower D&C costs have improved economics across portfolio

2021 completions focus 2022 completions focus

Page 13: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Maximizing Returns - Upspacing Review

13

• D&C strategy: upspace all future pads (6-15 wells per section) relative to historical practice (12-24 wells per section)

• 432 gross undeveloped economic upspaced locations as of year-end 2020

• Improves per-well EURs, reduces pad cycle times, improves cash-on-cash returns and F&D costs

• Illustrative spacing analysis shown below:

Page 14: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Reducing F&D Through Efficiency Gains

14

Average Daily Drilled & Frac Footage

All-In cycle times

• 20% reduction in 2-mile D&C costs in last year

• 30% increase in drilled and frac ft/day since 2017

• 50% reduction in all-in cycle times since 2016

D&C AFE’s per Lateral Foot (2-mile wells)

Page 15: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Financial Overview

Page 16: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

$139mm

$76mm$4.26/Boe

$3.00/Boe

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

(10)

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

2020A 2021E

New Midstream Contracts Yield Expanded Margins

16

• Renegotiated midstream contracts without disrupting production

• Eliminated material MVCs and reduced drilling commitments to below currently forecasted activity levels

• ~$100MM in annual run-rate total savings from new midstream contracts ($500MM+ PV-10)

T&M Expense

Page 17: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

$97

$78$63

$3.00$2.39 $2.50

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2019A 2020A 2021E

$/Boe

$55$49

$30$1.69

$1.50$1.17

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2019A 2020A 2021E

$/Boe

$1.17 $1.29 $1.59 $1.83 $1.96 $2.19 $2.41 $2.58 $2.81 $3.11 $3.20

$6.07 $6.23

2021EXOG

A B C D E F G H I J K L

$2.20 $2.33 $2.50 $2.57 $2.98 $3.20$4.78 $4.83 $5.04

$6.57 $7.01

$12.03

$20.25

A B 2021EXOG

C D E F G H I J K L

Streamlined Overhead Structure

17

Peer Average: $2.94

XOG 4Q20 Peers(1)

Cas

h G

&A

LOE

Peer Average: $6.15

2020 Headcount: 3232021 Headcount: 121

Source: Based on latest SEC filings, company investor presentations and court filings.(1) Peers include: BCEI, BRY, CDEV, CRC, HPR, LPI, MGY, OAS, PDCE, PVAC, QEP, WLL.

Page 18: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

$50.34 $50.34 $49.64 $50.01 $50.05 $2.94 $2.94 $2.93 $2.93 $3.00

36,076

100,994 92,197

85,916

71,870

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022

16,552

14,269

12,533 11,315

9,200

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022

Hedge Positions Enhance Financial Strength

18

Natural Gas Hedging SummaryOil Hedging Summary(Bbl/d) (Mmbtu/d)

Note: Hedge positions as of March 1, 2021.

• ~50% of 2021 oil production hedged at average swap price of $50.10/Bbl

• ~50% of 2021 dry gas production hedged at average swap price of $2.93/Mmbtu

Page 19: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

High-Quality Assets Generating Top Tier Cash Returns

Strong Balance Sheet

Significant Free Cash Flow Generation

Leading Corporate Governance and Alignment

Environmental Leadership

Continuing Focus on Consolidation

Page 20: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Appendix

Page 21: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Matt OwensPresident and Chief

Operating Officer

Tom TyreeChief Executive Officer

Brian CainVice President of External

Affairs and ESG Policy

Allyson BoiesVice President of Land

Eric ChristVice President, General Counsel and Corporate

Secretary

Marianella FoschiVice President and Chief

Financial Officer

Tom BrockVice President and Chief

Accounting Officer

21

Experienced, Aligned Management Team

Page 22: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Tom TyreeChief Executive Officer of

Extraction Oil and Gas

Mike WichterichChief Executive Officer of Three Rivers

Operating Company V LLC

Howard Willard IIIFormer Chairman and CEO of

Altria Group, Inc. (retired)

Benjamin DellChairman of the BoardManaging Partner of Kimmeridge Energy

Morris R. ClarkFormer Vice President and Treasurer

of Marathon Oil Corporation

Carrie M. FoxFounder of

Cygnet Resources and CFO of Driltek Inc.

Carney HawksChief Executive Officer of

JC Hawks & Co

22

Diverse, Highly Engaged Board Leadership

Page 23: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures

23

The following table presents a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDAX to the GAAP financial measure of Net Income for each of the periods indicated:

Note: Adjusted EBITDAX is not a measure of net income (loss) as determined by United States generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).

Page 24: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures

24

The following table presents a reconciliation of Discretionary Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow to the GAAP financial measure of Net cash provided by operating activities for each of the periods indicated:

Note: Discretionary Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow are not measures of net income (loss) as determined by United States generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).

Page 25: Adopting a New Business Model - Seeking Alpha

Corporate Contact Information

Corporate Headquarters370 17th Street, Suite 5200Denver, Colorado 80202

Investor RelationsJohn [email protected]

Media & ESG PolicyBrian [email protected]

AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopers LLPDenver, Colorado

Independent Petroleum EngineerRyder ScottDenver, Colorado

25