adt – advanced dvorak technique
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ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique. Tim Olander and Chris Velden University of Wisconsin – Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Honolulu, Hawaii 13 – 16 April, 2011. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ADT – Advanced Dvorak ADT – Advanced Dvorak TechniqueTechnique
Tim Olander Tim Olander andand Chris Velden Chris Velden
University of Wisconsin – MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin – Madison
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
International Workshop onInternational Workshop onSatellite Analysis of Tropical CyclonesSatellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones
Honolulu, HawaiiHonolulu, Hawaii13 – 16 April, 201113 – 16 April, 2011
We wish to acknowledge the inputs from those whom have provided valuable feedback regarding the ADT over the years, specifically Mike Turk and Greg Gallina at NESDIS/SAB, Andrew Burton at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, numerous forecasters and specialists at the NOAA/National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, past and present (too many to name here).
Special thanks to Jeff Hawkins and the Naval Research Laboratory and Office of Naval Research for the support towards the development and continued advancement of the ADT!
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Brief Historical OverviewBrief Historical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Step One: Creating the initial Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT
• Reduce subjectivity– Analyst subjectivity can be introduced in assessing scene
type, applying certain DvT parameters and rules, and determining TC storm center locations
• Promote uniformity -- Given the above, significant variation in DvT
estimates can sometimes exist between Operational Forecast Centers (OFCs), as documented by IBTrACS
-- Provide objectively-based estimates as a guidance tool
• Original Goal– Obtain an accuracy on par with the DvT
Why develop an objective Dvorak Technique (DvT)?
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT
landfall
Examples of wide intensity estimate variations betweenOperational Forecast Centers
Regions of Note
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT
• Retain DvT “roots”, but amend a little– Implement as much of original DvT technique as possible
• Keep familiarity for analysts/forecasters (e.g. EIR branch)• Output that includes T# and CI# values• Utilize same scene type classifications• Integrate DvT steps/rules (e.g. DvT Rule 9 for weakening)
– Implement a time averaging scheme• Operate the ODT at hourly (or even 30-min.) increments• Utilize a “history file” to store critical information for each analysis• Employ 6-h (now 3-h) running average of T# estimates to smooth
minor fluctuations from estimate to estimate, apply to final CI#
– Implement additional features requested by users • Add user position or scene override functionality
• ODT applications limited to TCs > T3.5 (strong tropical storms and higher)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT
Development of an objective scheme to estimate tropical cyclone intensity from digital geostationary
satellite infrared imagery
Chris Velden, Tim Olander and Ray Zehr
Weather and Forecasting, 1998, Vol. 13, pp. 172-186
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT
Step Two: The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The AODTADT History: The AODT
• Expand and Improve the ODT– Increase analysis intensity range and precision
• Allow for analysis of all ranges of intensities at/above TD stage• Addition of new scene type classifications and analysis scheme
– Curved Band using 10° Log Spiral technique– Additional Eye scene types– Modified cloud region temperature calculation (to help identify cloud symmetry)
• Integrate modified DvT Rule 8 intensity growth/decay constraints
– Provide completely automated analysis capability• Remove final subjective element of ODT technique: the storm center
determination/selection (replace analyst positioning using a mouse/curser with an objective Laplacian-based technique to search for localized and correlated bi-directional Tb gradients)
– Implement latitude bias adjustment for final MSLP estimates• Regression-based on relationship of the change of tropopause height
(and cloud top temps) with latitude (Kossin and Velden, 2004, MWR)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The AODTADT History: The AODT
Step Three: The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT
• Improve existing AODT methodology, and advance the algorithm beyond scope of the DvT– Integrate new intensity relationships
• Derive regression-based equations for eye and central dense overcast (CDO) scene types (discard look-up tables)
– Identify new environmental variables for regression equations
• Implement “Scene Score” calculation to determine current scene type using previous scene type and other environmental values
– Helps eliminate unrealistic scene type jumps
– Utilize new automated storm center determination process• Implement forerunner to Wimmers/Velden ARCHER scheme (2010, JAMC)
– Examines spiral band structure of entire IR cloud top temperature field
– Searches for eye features using advanced ring fitting analysis scheme
– Can identify and discard most “false eye” situations
• Scheme works primarily in T# range 3.5 and greater– Defaults to interpolation of OFC track forecast at weaker intensities
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT
The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued development of an objective scheme to estimate
tropical cyclone intensity using geostationary infrared satellite imagery
Timothy Olander and Christopher Velden
Weather and Forecasting, 2007, Vol. 22, pp. 287-298
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT
• New: Exploit additional satellite sensor information– Utilize externally-derived Passive Microwave (PMW) Intensity
“Score” values during CDO events• ADT intensities typically level out during CDO events until eye feature appears
in IR imagery
• PMW imagery can often identify the organization of eye features below cirrus shield in the developing TC stages
• PMW score is determined from objectively analyzed TC structure using 85GHz, and based on empirically-derived thresholds, can result in the over-ride of the ADT-based T# (depending on score, two different T# intensity estimates can be assigned (either T# = 4.3 or 5.0))
• Additional logic in ADT algorithm “merges” new PMW-derived T# values into existing history file to eliminate unnatural intensity jumps (linear extrapolation back 12 hours from PMW estimate point). New logic also linearly increments the PMW value forward in proportion to DvT model Tnum expected growth.
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements– Automated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering
– PMW ScorePMW Score
– Knaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>PressureKnaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>Pressure
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Storm center determinationStorm center determination• Utilize IR-Window Imagery (No VIS yet)Utilize IR-Window Imagery (No VIS yet)
• Spiral CenteringSpiral Centering» First guess interpolated from official TC forecastFirst guess interpolated from official TC forecast» Fits 5Fits 5° log spiral to grid points within search radius around ° log spiral to grid points within search radius around
first guess positionfirst guess position» Calculates Tb gradients along spiral; determines position Calculates Tb gradients along spiral; determines position
and rotation where minimum existsand rotation where minimum exists
• Ring FittingRing Fitting» Spiral Centering position serves as first guessSpiral Centering position serves as first guess» Fits series of rings with different radii at grid points within Fits series of rings with different radii at grid points within
search regionsearch region» Searches for single ring that fits maximum Tb gradientsSearches for single ring that fits maximum Tb gradients
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAutomated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering
Spiral CenteringSpiral Centering• Fits 5° log spiral vector field Fits 5° log spiral vector field
to the IR imageto the IR image• Calculates a grid of scores Calculates a grid of scores
that indicates the alignment that indicates the alignment between the spiral field and between the spiral field and the IR Tb gradients the IR Tb gradients (maximum at the spiral (maximum at the spiral centercenter
Ring FittingRing Fitting• Calculates a grid of Calculates a grid of
scores that indicates the scores that indicates the best fit to a range of best fit to a range of possible ring positions possible ring positions and diameters (maximum and diameters (maximum at the eye center)at the eye center)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAutomated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAutomated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements– Automated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering
– PMW ScorePMW Score
– Knaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>PressureKnaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>Pressure
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
SummarySummary• As briefly mentioned earlier, a recent major ADT algorithm improvement utilizes external As briefly mentioned earlier, a recent major ADT algorithm improvement utilizes external
passive microwave (PMW) information to aid in detection of tropical cyclone eye/eyewall passive microwave (PMW) information to aid in detection of tropical cyclone eye/eyewall formation when the ADT objective scene identification scheme (relying on IR alone) formation when the ADT objective scene identification scheme (relying on IR alone) cannot discern developing eye features due to high-level overcast. cannot discern developing eye features due to high-level overcast.
• ADT algorithm can struggle with this scenario and the T#s often “plateau”. Coincident ADT algorithm can struggle with this scenario and the T#s often “plateau”. Coincident PMW data can view through much of the overcast and in many cases discern an PMW data can view through much of the overcast and in many cases discern an organizing eye structure.organizing eye structure.
• Based on the amount of eyewall organization (wrap) and strength, a PMW “score” is Based on the amount of eyewall organization (wrap) and strength, a PMW “score” is calculated.calculated.
• If the score exceeds pre-determined thresholds, the value is passed to the ADT, where it If the score exceeds pre-determined thresholds, the value is passed to the ADT, where it is converted to a T# and over-rides the IR-based T#.is converted to a T# and over-rides the IR-based T#.
• Currently this scheme is only utilized in the developing stages of TCsCurrently this scheme is only utilized in the developing stages of TCs
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate “Score”PMW Intensity Estimate “Score”
• Uses the 85GHz brightness Uses the 85GHz brightness temperature signal to deduce the temperature signal to deduce the vigor and organization of the vigor and organization of the developing eyewall/eye, and developing eyewall/eye, and calculate an intensity score calculate an intensity score
• Successful in loosely Successful in loosely differentiating between storms differentiating between storms
• Greater than ~72 knotsGreater than ~72 knots• Greater than ~90 knotsGreater than ~90 knots
• If thresholds are exceeded, If thresholds are exceeded, PMW scores are converted to PMW scores are converted to either T# of 4.3 or 5.0 in the ADTeither T# of 4.3 or 5.0 in the ADT
• The scheme has been The scheme has been operating in the ADT since 2008operating in the ADT since 2008
Warmest eye pixel
Eyewall temperatures
Hurricane Dolly, 23 July 2008 1126 UTCHurricane Dolly, 23 July 2008 1126 UTC
DMSP SSM/I 85GHz (H) brightness temperature
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate ScorePMW Intensity Estimate Score
More intense;More intense;Closer to Best TrackCloser to Best Track
More accurate duringMore accurate duringrapid intensificationrapid intensification
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate ScorePMW Intensity Estimate Score
Eliminated false intensity Eliminated false intensity “plateau”; Closer to Best Track“plateau”; Closer to Best Track
More closely follows rapid More closely follows rapid intensification; More intensification; More accurate maximum intensity accurate maximum intensity resultedresulted
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate ScorePMW Intensity Estimate Score
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements– Automated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering
– PMW ScorePMW Score
– Courtney/Knaff Wind>PressureCourtney/Knaff Wind>Pressure
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak Technique Courtney/Knaff Wind>PressureCourtney/Knaff Wind>Pressure
• Based on Courtney and Knaff (2009)– Adapting the Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure relationship for operational use
in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 58, pp. 167-179
• ADT final MSLP estimate: Starts with the derived T# and Vmax, then utilizes information from real-time ATCF CARQ files provided by OFCs (NHC or JTWC)– R34 = Average of ATCF RAD1-RAD4 wind radii (in nmi) for 34 knot wind
threshold (gale radius)
– MSLP = Pressure (in mb) of outermost closed isobar (ATCF POUTER value)
– ROCI = Radius of outermost closed isobar (ATCF ROUTER value, in nmi) to estimate R34 value if no 34-knot wind radii are available
• R34est = (0.354 * ROCI) + 13.3
– ADT also uses climatological storm speed value of 11 knots
– Andrew Burton will discuss C/K methodology in greater detail later…Andrew Burton will discuss C/K methodology in greater detail later…
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Intensity range affected most by PMW “eye score” addition
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT Validation (Vmax, vs. Recon)ADT Validation (Vmax, vs. Recon)
Comparison of latest ADT version (v8.1.3, with PMW) and previous version (v7.2.3, w/o PMW)
7.2.3 Mean Error7.2.3 Bias8.1.3 Mean Error8.1.3 Bias
• NORTH ATLANTIC – 2010 TC Season– Independent comparisons between ADT and SAB intensity estimates
– ADT and SAB estimates w/in +/- 30 minutes
– Closest NHC Best Track intensity (co-located w/ aircraft reconnaissance in situ measurement w/in 2 hours)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvTADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvT
106 total matches (homogeneous) bias aae stdvSAB:CI# -0.22 0.48 0.57SAB:Win -1.40 7.77 10.23SAB:MSL 5.01 8.20 9.78ADT:CI# -0.02 0.58 0.73ADT:Win 2.59 8.22 10.47ADT:MSL 2.22 8.94 11.35
Note: SAB analysts do have access to, or awareness of, the recon reports. While this influence is difficult to quantify, it offers a stringent comparison test for the ADT.
• EAST/CENTRAL PACIFIC – 2010 TC Season– Independent comparisons between ADT and SAB intensity estimates
– ADT and SAB estimates w/in +/- 30 minutes
– Closest NHC Best Track intensity
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvTADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvT
126 total matches (homogeneous) bias aae stdvSAB:CI# -0.05 0.33 0.43SAB:Win 0.48 5.91 8.54SAB:MSL 0.08 4.59 6.73ADT:CI# -0.07 0.28 0.36ADT:Win -0.38 5.94 7.73ADT:MSL 0.88 3.81 5.36
Note: NHC is using the ADT increasingly,especially in the EPAC. While difficult toquantify, their BT may reflect ADT influences.
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Current ADT Status and Availability– Routinely utilized by several OFCs from CIMSS web site
• http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/
– Version 8.1.3 will be active on the CIMSS web site starting 1 May, 2011
– Efforts underway at SAB to integrate this version into operations there, to provide estimates via ATCF.
• Completion date uncertain
– Portable version now available (license req.)
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
ADT real-time homepage : http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
****************************************************
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 28 AUG 2005 Time : 154500 UTC Lat : 26:14:25 N Lon : 88:20:05 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 926.0mb/134.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.7 6.7 6.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.6mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 33 km
Center Temp : +20.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADT real-time homepage
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt
ADTCurrent Intensity
“Bulletin”
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
===== ADT-Version 8.1.3 ===== --------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature- Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd Comments2005AUG23 211500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.76 -35.41 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.25 75.44 FCST 2005AUG23 214500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 5.84 -34.85 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.28 75.49 FCST 2005AUG23 221500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 5.84 -33.57 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.30 75.54 FCST 2005AUG23 224500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 3.84 -34.04 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.33 75.58 FCST 2005AUG23 231500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 0.04 -34.42 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.36 75.63 FCST 2005AUG23 234500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.74 -33.37 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.39 75.68 FCST 2005AUG24 001500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.54 -32.66 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.41 75.72 FCST 2005AUG24 004500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.74 -30.82 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.43 75.77 FCST <records deleted>2005AUG27 154500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.6 4.9 4.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -53.56 -68.93 EMBC N/A N/A 24.49 85.25 SPRL 2005AUG27 161500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.7 5.0 5.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -53.86 -68.15 EMBC N/A N/A 24.50 85.31 SPRL 2005AUG27 164500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -60.06 -69.29 EMBC N/A N/A 24.51 85.49 SPRL 2005AUG27 171500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -62.66 -69.35 EMBC N/A N/A 24.53 85.67 SPRL 2005AUG27 174500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 4.6 4.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.36 -70.79 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.64 85.75 SPRL 2005AUG27 181500 4.8 973.4/ -0.2 / 84.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -67.06 -69.50 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.76 86.03 SPRL 2005AUG27 184500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -65.36 -71.15 EMBC N/A N/A 24.68 85.85 SPRL 2005AUG27 191500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.76 -73.14 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.60 85.57 SPRL 2005AUG27 194500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.36 -73.25 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.63 85.61 SPRL <records deleted>2005AUG28 104500 6.7 929.0/ -0.4 /132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.64 -70.90 EYE 30 IR N/A 25.74 87.56 COMBO 2005AUG28 111500 6.7 929.0/ -0.4 /132.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.44 -71.08 EYE 31 IR N/A 25.68 87.64 COMBO 2005AUG28 114500 6.8 926.1/ -0.4 /134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.74 -71.74 EYE 30 IR N/A 25.73 87.72 COMBO 2005AUG28 121500 6.8 926.1/ -0.4 /134.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.54 -71.46 EYE 31 IR N/A 25.76 87.78 COMBO 2005AUG28 124500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.54 -71.12 EYE 32 IR N/A 25.88 87.81 COMBO 2005AUG28 131500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.64 -72.01 EYE 32 IR N/A 25.90 87.97 COMBO 2005AUG28 134500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 20.24 -71.25 EYE 32 IR N/A 25.93 88.02 COMBO 2005AUG28 141500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.94 -70.71 EYE 31 IR N/A 25.97 88.08 COMBO 2005AUG28 144500 6.8 926.0/ -0.6 /134.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.34 -70.99 EYE 31 IR N/A 26.11 88.15 COMBO 2005AUG28 151500 6.8 926.0/ -0.6 /134.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 20.64 -69.05 EYE 32 IR N/A 26.26 88.22 COMBO <records deleted)2005AUG29 084500 6.3 938.8/ -1.4 /122.2 5.8 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.04 -66.90 EYE 28 IR N/A 28.81 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 091500 6.3 938.8/ -1.4 /122.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.34 -66.15 EYE 28 IR N/A 28.92 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 094500 6.3 938.8/ -1.4 /122.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.54 -66.08 EYE 28 IR N/A 29.03 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 101500 6.3 938.7/ -1.5 /122.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.84 -63.94 EYE 29 IR N/A 29.14 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 104500 6.3 938.7/ -1.5 /122.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.44 -61.50 EYE 30 IR N/A 29.25 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 111500 0.0 0.0/ +0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 29.37 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 114500 6.3 938.6/ -1.6 /122.2 6.0 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.54 -59.59 EYE 30 IR N/A 29.49 89.43 COMBO 2005AUG29 121500 6.3 938.6/ -1.6 /122.2 5.8 5.5 5.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.34 -58.01 EYE 31 IR N/A 29.67 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 124500 6.3 938.5/ -1.7 /122.2 5.7 5.5 5.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.84 -59.13 EYE 29 IR N/A 29.74 89.55 COMBO 2005AUG29 131500 6.3 938.5/ -1.7 /122.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.94 -60.14 EYE 30 IR N/A 29.81 89.55 COMBO 2005AUG29 134500 0.0 0.0/ +0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 30.00 89.56 COMBO 2005AUG29 141500 6.3 938.5/ -1.7 /122.2 5.5 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT ON FLG -1.56 -61.88 EYE 27 IR N/A 30.00 89.45 COMBO 2005AUG29 144500 0.0 0.0/ +0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 30.32 89.56 COMBO Utilizing history file /home/tlo/odt/ADTV8.1.3WV/history/2005KATRINA.ODTSuccessfully completed listing
ADT real-time homepage
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a
dt
ADTHistory
FileListing
--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature- Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd 2005AUG28 104500 6.7 929.0/ -0.4 /132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.64 -70.90 EYE 30 IR N/A 25.74 87.56 COMBO
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
ADT Time Series Intensity Plot
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview
• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements
• ValidationValidation
• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability
• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
• Address current ADT biases and weaknesses– Shear scenes (weaker systems)– Curved Band analyses (employ regression approach?)– Weak bias in storms with Vmax >130kts– Passage over land and re-emergence
• Exploit additional satellite sensor information– Differencing of Infrared and Water Vapor imagery
shows promise in multiple areas• Correlation improvements for CDO and other scene type intensity
estimates through regression analysis
• Can aid in automated storm center determination
• Shows potential in rapid intensification prediction
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueLooking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future
IR Image
Derived IR-WV ImageIR Image (w/ BD enh)
Stretched Enh IR Image(IR-WV locations only)
NOAA/NWS Radar
Recon Center
IR-WV selected storm center
Interpolated NHC forecast
Uniform CDOin IR-Window
covering storm center
Note similarities between derived IR-WV image and NWS radar identifying strongest convective regions
IR-WV product correctly identifies possible forming eye region
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueIR-WV Channel DifferencingIR-WV Channel Differencing
Tropical cyclone convection and intensity analysis using differenced infrared and water vapor imagery
Timothy Olander and Christopher Velden
Weather and Forecasting, 2009, Vol. 24, pp. 1558-1572
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueIR-WV Channel DifferencingIR-WV Channel Differencing
• Expand ADT to initiate and operate on “Invest” systems
– I.E., attempt to objectively identify DvT T#1.0-1.5 convective disturbances
– Test and possibly integrate a new objective algorithm developed by Chris Hennon et al. at North Carolina State Univ. which detects and tracks tropical cloud clusters related to tropical cyclogenesis
– Implementation and initial testing will begin this summer
Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueOther ADT Research AvenuesOther ADT Research Avenues