advanced analytics-green team book

7/29/2019 Advanced Analytics-Green Team Book

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Introduction Page 1

ANALYTICMETHODS

GREEN TEAM

16 May 2012

INTL 520

Mercyhurst

University


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Introduction Page i

ADVANCED ANALYTICMETHODS

GREEN TEAM

Dean Atkins

Leslie Guelcher

David Krauza

Puru Naidu

Shawn Ruminski

Emily Slegel

Erie, PA

2012 Mercyhurst University, Green Team, Erie, PA

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or

transmitted in any form or by any means without written

permission from the author.


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Advanced Analytics: Green Team Methods page ii

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1:GAP ANALYSIS 4Description 4Strengths 4Weaknesses 5How-To 5Personal Application 6Conclusion 8CHAPTER 2:COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 9Description 9Strengths 9Weaknesses 10How-To 11Personal Application 12Conclusion 16Additional Resources 16CHAPTER 3:CONTENT ANALYSIS 18Description 18Strengths 18Weaknesses 19How-To 19Personal Application 21Conclusion 25Additional Resources 25CHAPTER 4:DEPHI METHOD 26Description 26Strengths 26Weaknesses 27How-To 27Personal Application 28Conclusion 30CHAPTER 5:GAME THEORY 31Description 31Strengths 33


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Introduction Page iii

Weaknesses 34How To 34Personal Application 35Conclusion 37CHAPTER 6:COMPARATIVE NEWS FRAME ANALYSIS 38Description 38Strengths 39Weaknesses 39How-To 40Personal Application 41Conclusion 45Further Information 45BIBLIOGRAPHY 47


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Advanced Analytics: Green Team Methods page 4

Chapter 1: Gap Analysis

Dean Atkins

Description

Gap analysis is a method that identifies the difference

(gap) between the current state and a desired end state of

a situation within a business or organization. As an

analytic tool in the intelligence community, gap analysisis focused externally on other countries and entities. The

current state is generally known and the gap analysis can

be used to identify the likely course of action a

target/entity may take in order to get to their desired end

state. Traditionally, gap analysis is internally focused.

Gap analysis can be done in a number of ways and is very

similar to benchmarking.

Strengths

Flexibility. There are a number of different ways to use it. Gap

analysis can be done in a number of ways. It can be applied

quantitatively or qualitatively and can be broken down into

smaller components in a micro approach or applied on a larger

scale in a macro approach.

Can be applied internally or externally. Gap analysis is

traditionally applied internally in order to improve business

methods to a desirable end state from their current position.

The intelligence field requires an external focus and this can be

achieved by using the current state and the desired end state toidentify possible course of action/pathways.

Once gaps are identified, it is easier to come up with

actions/solutions. When gaps are perceived and identifiedit

then becomes a lot easier to provide actions or solutions to a


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Page 5

decision maker. These recommendations are easily rationed

and explained with a clear gap guiding the user.

Weaknesses

There is no standardized way of doing it. With so many waysof using gap analysis, a number of methods can be used to

perceive and demonstrate the gap. It is also hard to conduct and

compare if there are so many ways of implementing the

method.

Doesnt offer a clear estimate.Most analytic techniques offera decision maker a clear estimate. Internally this may be

realistic. However, when applied externally, you are not certain

of the pathways or courses of action a target may use, making

an estimate much harder to be extracted from gap analysis.

Harder to apply externally. Furthermore, externally focused

gap analysis has a lot less data and information that can beutilized. This makes it more challenging to find the current

state, know a targets desired end state and therefore, likely

courses of action to breach the gap between those two states.

How-To

1. Identify the target. Whether it is internal or external,identify the target that you will be applying the gapanalysis to.

2. Identify the current state. Using all possible informationavailable, determine the current position of the target

where they are at.

3. Identify the desired end state. Whether its a statementof their intent or a likely outcome given the informationyou have, determine the desired end state of the target.

What are they trying to achievewhere do they want to

be.

4. Determine what the gaps are between the two states.


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The gap between the two states is where the most

flexibility can be applied. In whatever manner

necessary, determine what the gaps are between where

they are at and where they want to be. This may take

into account qualitative or quantitative data in a micro

or macro approach.

5. Interpret how the target may act in order to breach thegap. Using the gaps you have identified, figure out the

likely courses of action the target may take to get from

the current state to the ideal end state. Although these

may not be truly estimative, it can identify possiblepathways or courses of action.

6. Report results. Report the findings back, clearly statingwhat the current state and desired end states were,

followed by the gaps identified and if necessary, likely

courses of action the target may take in order to breach

that gap.

Personal Application

1. Identify the target. I applied gap analysis to the MensSoccer Team at Mercyhurst University. My goal was to

use gap analysis in both the traditional, internal way

and also the intelligence method of focusing on external

actors. Therefore, my secondary targets were the other

PSAC (Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference) teams.

2. Identify the current state. Using Excel and a number ofstatistics, I applied the gap analysis quantitatively to

assess where each team was over the past 3 years.

Qualitatively, I interviewed the current Mercyhurst

Soccer coach to achieve more detail on the internal

current state of the Mercyhurst Mens Soccer Team.3. Identify the desired end state. Building on the

quantitative information gathered, I used the previous

PSAC winners as benchmarks (a similar analytic

technique) and the PSAC Title as the desired end state.


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Internally, I honed in on Mercyhurst and the desired

end statethe PSAC Title.

4. Determine what the gaps are between the two states.I used three methods for determining the gaps between

a teams current state and the desired end state of a

PSAC title.

The first method was externally focused and

concentrated on quantitative data in Excel to look for

trends and correlations between data that resulted in

success. There were a number of factors measured;

record, win percentage, home record, home winpercentage, average attendance, squad size, # of players

in each position, # of coaches, # of players by college

year, # of goals scored and # of goals conceded.

The second method was internally focused and

conducted qualitatively. This involved an interview

with the Mercyhurst Soccer Coach and identified a

number of gaps between their current state and desiredend state of a PSAC title.

The third method was developed from the coachs

interview. Utilizing the gaps identified internally, I

explored how they might be applied externally to the

other teams in the PSAC. This then became an external

approach using a qualitative survey of teams defensiveweaknesses. This was a very specific gap analysis,

focusing just on defensive weaknesses and was

measured on the following weaknesses; counter attacks,

corners, free-kicks, penalties, individual mistakes, out

of position, open play, high line, deep line, red cards,

crosses and through the middle.

5. Interpret how the target may act in order to breach thegap. Using the gaps I identified, I came up with a

number of possible approaches the opposition may take

next season in order to get to the desired end state of a

PSAC title. Furthermore, building on the external and

internal factors, I was able to come up with a number of


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recommendations and suggestions for the Mercyhurst

Soccer Coach. Utilizing this data would be very useful

if applied to a Indicators and Warnings analytic

technique (possible future study).

6. Report results. After compiling all the data, I presentedto the Mercyhurst Soccer Coach and the Athletic

Director on my findings and conclusions.

Conclusion

The results of the gap analysis were very useful to the

Mercyhurst Soccer Coach and left a lot of scope forfurther study. The method itself is hard to implement

because there is no set way of doing it. It is hard to give

instructions and a how-to methodology for such an

expansive method. My personal application

demonstrates how easy it is to apply the method in a

variety of ways, yet it is important to define whether

you are applying the method internally or externallybeforehand as I found myself blurring the lines on

multiple occasions during my study.


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page 9

Chapter 2: Cost-Benefit Analysis

Leslie Guelcher

Description

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an analytic modifier that

attempts to determine if a project, course of action, or

investment should be selected based on limited investible

funds (Mishan & Quah, 2007, p. 3). The process entailsquantifying both the costs and the benefits of a project. It

can be used to reduce uncertainty.

CBA is traditionally used in one of two settings: as an

economic analysis to determine the social benefit of a

public undertaking or as an accounting function for

private enterprises to determine the opportunity costs fora set of projects or decisions (Mishan & Quah, 2007, p.

5).

For economic problems, the cost of a proposal is weighed

as societys cost while the benefits are regarded as social

benefits to determine if a project will result in a netsocial benefit, where benefit cost = net value

(Robinson, 1993, p. 924). At the firm level, the costs are

the actual, or estimated, costs of the project to the firm

alone. Similarly, the benefits are those accrued only to the

firm within the framework of the project being examined

(Sonnenreich, Albanese, & Stout, 2006, p. 55).

Strengths

Cost benefit analysis is simple to implement when using

quantitative data. When conducting CBA using project costs

and benefits that have set financial numbers attached to the


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project, it is a simple matter of inputting all costs and then

associated benefits to derive a net value for the project.

CBA reduces uncertainty. The process of listing all potential

costs and quantifying the benefits allows an analyst to verify a

project has considered the true costs of both inputs (costs) and

outputs (benefits). Using brainstorming, expert testimony or

other techniques to generate a list of costs and benefits aids the

process.

Examples of using CBA are plentiful. Because CBA has beenused in both accounting and economics for decades, there are

plenty of examples of academic articles, books, and

downloadable spreadsheet templates to aid in preparing the

analysis.

Methods for determining costs and benefits are available. A

myriad of journal articles and other publications exist thatdetail procedures for arriving at the costs and benefits for a

specific project. For instance, in my application of CBA I

found several articles that helped determine which factors to

include as costs and benefits.

Weaknesses

Qualitative data can be manipulated. To work in CBA,

qualitative data must be changed to quantitative data. Using a

range for the data helps mitigate the bias that could permeate

the analysis. Otherwise, it is easy to underestimate costs while

overestimating benefits, which leads to faulty conclusions.

CBA is not a stand-alone answer. When using qualitative data,other modifiers are needed in conjunction with CBA in order to

transfer the ideas of qualitative to the numbers needed in

quantitative.


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page 11

How-To

1. Identify the project, course of action or investment to beanalyzed. The project to be analyzed will usually be

defined by decision-makers. It can be a questioncomparing two potential solutions or a singular

investment that the analyst is tasked with determining

its projected usefulness/benefit.

2. Choose appropriate modifiers. Additional modifiersshould be used to effectively generate a complete list of

benefits and costs. By using more than one modifier,

the analyst can ensure as complete a list as possible isincluded in the CBA. Various modifier ideas can be

found inAdditional Resources.

3. Determine the costs and benefits to be analyzed. Theanalyst can begin listing costs and benefits from

individual research using Google Scholar, Lexis-Nexis

or other online sources for journal and technicalarticles/papers. The papers should give the analyst a

starting point for determining what other information

will be needed. From there, additional items can be

added to the list from HUMINT (talking to experts),

brainstorming, or other idea generating activities.

4. Build a spreadsheet. Using a program like MicrosoftExcel, either build a spreadsheet from scratch or find atemplate online. A Google search for Cost Benefit

filetype:xls should generate a number of already

designed templates. The spreadsheet should include an

area for listing all of the costs followed by all of the

benefits. Each section (cost and benefit) should be auto-

summed to improve accuracy.

5. Determine the number to use for quantifiable data.Through researching costs and numerical benefits, an

analyst can start building the items on the spreadsheet.

If exact numbers are not available, then a range of

costs/benefits should be used. Using Hubbards 90


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percent confidence interval (Hubbard, 2010, pp. 55,

103), the analyst should identify the low and high ends

for both costs and benefits. The low and high numbers

should each be listed in its own column to provide a

specific low total and high total for the analysis.

6. Change qualitative data to quantitative. For CBA towork, all data must be in the form of numbers. As such,

any fuzzy items require conversion from ideas to

numbers. Again, using Hubbards ideas for being

creative when approaching items that might be

considered unmeasurable can produce estimates thatare close enough to be able to reduce uncertainty

(Hubbard, 2010, pp. 139-176).

7. Input quantities. All costs and benefits need to have aquantity, or range of quantities, associated with it. Each

item should be listed with what it is and what it costs.

8. Analyze the results. Add all costs together to obtainthe total investment. Then, add all benefits together toget the total benefit. Subtract total investment from total

benefit to get the net value. If the value is positive, you

have a net benefit; if negative, a net cost.


1. Identify a project. The first step was to determine anarea, industry or concept that may not have utilized

CBA in the past. I identified small business cyber

security spending as the area I would investigate.

2. Define terms. To narrow down the items to investigate,I first determined what cost-benefit analysis entailed.

(This is reviewed in the Description section, using the

perspective of one firm.) I defined small business as anorganization with fewer than 50 employees. Cyber

security was defined as any undesirable event that is a

result of an attack against the information system of the

business (Arora, Hall, Pinto, Ramsey, & Telang, 2004,

p. 35).


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page 13

3. Identify types of data. I next researched the types ofincidents that are included in cyber security. I found

information pertaining to measuring risk of intrusion,

costs associated with hardware and software solutions,

the maintenance (or update costs) needed for hardware

and software, and the costs associated with monitoring

installed solutions.

To quantify the benefits, I associated the cost of

computers being unusable for an hour/day/week against

the number of incidents prevented because of theinstallation of security devices. To obtain this

information, I spoke with industry experts who advice

and sell security solutions to small businesses. As an

example, a business with a firewall, anti-virus

protection, anti-spam protection and updated

hardware/software can expect next to no intrusions into

their networks. However, by eliminating any one of thesolutions, changes how at-risk the business is to

intrusion.

I decided to use the risk-based analysis because I could

establish different risk levels for different types of

business. I was then able to tailor the analysis based onbusiness risk. I identified five levels that depended on

the type of network and data that a business has on-site.

4. Quantify data. Because the benefit area consisted ofqualitative data, I needed to find a way to measure it.

By using information obtained from experts, journal

1 No network, no client/customer data, no IP, no sensitive documents

2 Networked, with staff data, but no client, IP, or sensitive documents

3 Networked, with staff data plus either client OR IP, no sensitive documents

4 Networked, with either client OR IP AND staff data along with sensitive documents

5 Networked, with client and staff data, IP and sensitive documents

Risk Levels


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articles and technical publications, I was able to

identify 90 percent confidence interval for the benefits.

I used the value of prevented incidents formula

developed by Sonnenreich, et al to quantify risk

exposure. The formula I used is:

Risk exposure = ALE = SLE * ARO

SLE = Single loss event

ARO = Annual loss exposure

To determine the cost of a SLE, I used industry dataprovided by the Computer Security Institute and the US

Federal Bureau of Investigation. Again, I used low and

high estimates when calculating the proposed benefit of

prevented incidents.

The other major qualitative measure was the savings to

employee productivity. To determine the cost of loss

productivity, I looked at an average number of incidents

per organization based on the findings of CSI and the

FBI. I then used the number of employees and an

average wage to determine the savings for reducing the

number and length of down-time on a computer

network.

5. Enter costs. The costs associated with any given set ofsecurity answers are more easily constructed. The areas

identified included: Implementation planning, Contract

Value of Prevented Incidents

Cost of single security incident (SLE) Dollars 300 500

Estimated annual rate of occurrence (ARO) Count 12 30Total annual loss exposure (ALE) 3,600 15,000

Monthly Productivity Savings

Employees Count 10 30

Reduced Hours/Month of non-Access Hours 5 10Average Wage Dollars 55 55

Total Monthly Productivity Savings 2,750 16,500


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labor, Internal implementation labor, Training costs,

Opportunity costs, and Capital costs/equipment. The

labor costs are entered for a specific entity. As an

example:

The items entered into the worksheet are then used to

calculate labor and other costs based on the risk level of

the business (the last item on the list).

The risk levels each have associated costs and number

of hours as they relate to each area identified above.

The worksheet is designed to summarize all associated

costs and benefits and then list the suggested hardware

solutions based on the risk level. As an example, the

CBA for Level 5, using the data above computes to:

The list of suggested hardware for the business

includes:

Modem

Worksheet - Enter Values in Right Column

Internal Labor Cost/Hour

IT Staff Cost/Hour Dollars 25.00$

Management Cost/Hour Dollars 65.00$

Other Staff Cost/Hour Dollars 45.00$

Average Wage Dollars 55.00$

External Labor Cost/Hour Dollars 90.00$Expected life span Years 2

Risk Level Number 5

Calculate Total Monthly Benefit Low Est High Est

Monthly Benefit 7,750$ 26,750$

Monthly Cost 6,545$ 13,581$

Total Monthly Benefit 1,205$ 13,169$

Payback (Months) 3 3


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Switch Firewall/Anti-spam Backup Document Management Monitoring Dashboard Internet Monitoring

Each risk level has its own hardware suggestions and

CBA analysis.

6. Analyze data. By adding risk analysis to the CBA, I wasable to determine that a business with a low risk forintrusion, such as a mechanic with only one computer

and no client personal data, could invest as little as

$1,300 to secure its data infrastructure and the an

additional $100 a month for on-going maintenance.

Meanwhile, a business with more risk such as a

manufacturer only concerned with protectingintellectual property on its network, can invest from

$9,000 in implementation costs and then $2,000 a

month in on-going costs to $45,000 for implementation

and $6,300 on-going.

Conclusion

The results of the cost-benefit analysis produced results

that could be used to inform decisions; however, it did

not produce results that are estimative. I needed to

include risk analysis in order to obtain enough

information to be able to draw conclusions about the

optimum level a small business should invest.

Additional Resources

http://www.techrepublic.com/downloads/a-project-

managers-costbenefit-analysis/173615
http://www.techrepublic.com/downloads/a-project-managers-costbenefit-analysis/173615http://www.techrepublic.com/downloads/a-project-managers-costbenefit-analysis/173615http://www.techrepublic.com/downloads/a-project-managers-costbenefit-analysis/173615http://www.techrepublic.com/downloads/a-project-managers-costbenefit-analysis/173615


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http://www.compliancesforum.com/it-project-cost-

benefit-and-risk-analysis-templates

http://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-

tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-

a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQ

http://www.oit.umn.edu/project-management/project-

toolkit/index.htm

www.pbis.org/common/cms/documents/NewTeam/.../c

ostbenefit.xls

www.dot.state.mn.us/transit/grants/.../Cost_Benefit_W

ksht_4.xls

www.panopticinfo.com/docs/CostBenefitAnalysis.xls

www.projects.ed.ac.uk/.../Full.../ProjectCostBenefitWork

book.xls

www.tc.faa.gov/acf/Cost_Benefit_Template1.xls
http://www.compliancesforum.com/it-project-cost-benefit-and-risk-analysis-templateshttp://www.compliancesforum.com/it-project-cost-benefit-and-risk-analysis-templateshttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.oit.umn.edu/project-management/project-toolkit/index.htmhttp://www.oit.umn.edu/project-management/project-toolkit/index.htmhttp://www.pbis.org/common/cms/documents/NewTeam/.../costbenefit.xlshttp://www.pbis.org/common/cms/documents/NewTeam/.../costbenefit.xlshttp://www.dot.state.mn.us/transit/grants/.../Cost_Benefit_Wksht_4.xlshttp://www.dot.state.mn.us/transit/grants/.../Cost_Benefit_Wksht_4.xlshttp://www.panopticinfo.com/docs/CostBenefitAnalysis.xlshttp://www.panopticinfo.com/docs/CostBenefitAnalysis.xlshttp://www.projects.ed.ac.uk/.../Full.../ProjectCostBenefitWorkbook.xlshttp://www.projects.ed.ac.uk/.../Full.../ProjectCostBenefitWorkbook.xlshttp://www.projects.ed.ac.uk/.../Full.../ProjectCostBenefitWorkbook.xlshttp://www.tc.faa.gov/acf/Cost_Benefit_Template1.xlshttp://www.tc.faa.gov/acf/Cost_Benefit_Template1.xlshttp://www.tc.faa.gov/acf/Cost_Benefit_Template1.xlshttp://www.projects.ed.ac.uk/.../Full.../ProjectCostBenefitWorkbook.xlshttp://www.projects.ed.ac.uk/.../Full.../ProjectCostBenefitWorkbook.xlshttp://www.panopticinfo.com/docs/CostBenefitAnalysis.xlshttp://www.dot.state.mn.us/transit/grants/.../Cost_Benefit_Wksht_4.xlshttp://www.dot.state.mn.us/transit/grants/.../Cost_Benefit_Wksht_4.xlshttp://www.pbis.org/common/cms/documents/NewTeam/.../costbenefit.xlshttp://www.pbis.org/common/cms/documents/NewTeam/.../costbenefit.xlshttp://www.oit.umn.edu/project-management/project-toolkit/index.htmhttp://www.oit.umn.edu/project-management/project-toolkit/index.htmhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.infotech.com/sem/costbenefit-analysis-tool?_kk=cost%20benefit&_kt=821b259e-18e5-49f1-9cb9-df22e94becc6&gclid=CM6g8aDd-a8CFSWFQAodGEgXDQhttp://www.compliancesforum.com/it-project-cost-benefit-and-risk-analysis-templateshttp://www.compliancesforum.com/it-project-cost-benefit-and-risk-analysis-templates


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Chapter 3: Content Analysis

David Krauza

Description

Content analysis is an analytic modifier that uses

systematic, objective, quantitative analysis of message

characteristics (Neuendorf, 2002, p. 1) to determine the

presence of certain words, concepts, themes, phrases,

characters or sentences within text or a set of texts and

quantifies this presence in an objective manner. It entails

a reading of a body of texts, images, and symbolic

material, not necessarily from an authors or users

perspective (Krippendorff, 2004, p. 3).

Content analysis can be divided into two categories ofanalysis, conceptual analysis and relational analysis.

Conceptual analysis is the traditional form of content

analysis. In this method, a concept is chosen and the

analysis involves quantifying and tallying the presence of

the concept in the text(s). Relational analysis starts the

same way as conceptual analysis, with the identification

of a concept. However, relational analysis attempts toidentify semantic relationships in the text. In this form of

content analysis individual concepts do not have

meaning, the results of the relationships among the

concepts reveal the meaning.

Strengths

Content analysis is unobtrusive. When conducting content

analysis, the analyst or researcher does not need to come into

contact with the subject being studied. In fact, the target of the

analysis may never know that they have been the subject of a

study. Given this, there is a very low risk the target will


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page 19

change their behavior as is the case with other forms of

observation.

Useful in analyzing trends. Content analysis is useful when

analyzing historical materials. This form of analysis is good

for documenting trends over time.

Harder to trick with denial and deception tactics. Since

content analysis will document trends over time a sudden and

large change in behavior will easily be noticed. To effectively

defeat content analysis the target will have to incorporatedenial and deception tactics in all texts they produce and

maintain the practice over a long period of time.

Weaknesses

May not identify motives. Content analysis is a descriptive

technique. It will produce results that are good at describing

what has happened or what is happening but it may not revealwhy an event occurred or why those involved engaged in the

observed behavior.

Limited availability of data. Like all analytic techniques,

content analysis will be limited by the availability of data. If

the target under analysis does not produce sufficient content to

be analyzed then the technique will have limited benefits.

Vulnerability to bias. Content analysis is subject various forms

of bias. Examples of bias that analysts may engage in include:

not including relevant texts in the analysis and, in the case of

relational content analysis, purposely miscoding text to arrive

at a different meaning.How-To

1. Determine research question. The research question isthe theory or perspective the analyst wishes to examine.

Content analysis research questions differ from


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scientific hypotheses, which is pitted against direct

observational evidence (Krippendorff, 2004, p. 31).

Answers to content analysis questions are made from

inferences drawn from the text.

2. Choose appropriate tools. To effectively performcontent analysis, software tools are necessary (please

see the Additional Resources section for suggestions).

The software can automate the mundane tasks of

tallying word usage and identifying patterns in coded

texts. The analyst must choose the software that best

answers the question/need.3. Obtain necessary texts. There is a wealth of publicly

available texts online. Analysts can use public sources

such as the Security and Exchange Commission, media

archives, and specialized websites, such as Google

Finance or SeekingAlpha.com. The transcripts of

Congressional testimony also offer an excellent source

of content. The advantage that Congressionaltestimony offers is that the speakers must answer

questions truthfully under penalty of perjury. Many

news websites offer an archive of interviews conducted

by their news staff. While a transcript is not always

available (e.g. video of the interview is available on the

website) it still provides another location to acquirecontent. If cost is not a problem there are also paid

websites where content can be found, examples include

Reuters, Bloomberg, and Lexis-Nexis.

4. Analyze texts. This is one of the easier tasks in contentanalysis. Since the software tools will perform the raw

analysis, the analyst will have to stage the data so that

the tool can read the texts and produce output. Itslikely that this step in the process will have to be

repeated several times and new texts are discovered or

anomalies in the data need to be corrected.

5. Interpret results. Once the software tool results areavailable the analyst must attempt to infer meaning


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page 21

from the texts. Krippendorff (2004, p. 219)

recommends a statistical analysis of the results to arrive

at an answer to the original research question. Another

way to draw conclusions from the texts is to look at the

report of word usage and draw conclusions from their

usage.

6. Report results. The results of content analysis will beoverwhelming to any decision-maker. It is necessary to

present the results in a user-friendly format, including

creating graphs and charts that can be easily understood

by the intended audience.Personal Application

1. Identify concept. The first step was to choose anindustry to analyze. I chose the technology industry

due to my familiarity with it. Within the industry I

selected Research in Motion (RIM), Apple (AAPL),

Google (GOOG), and Nokia (NOK) to analyze. Ipicked these companies because they are generally

considered to be on different trajectories. AAPL and

GOOG are generally considered to be on the

ascendancy while RIM and NOK are generally

considered to have seen better days. The concept I

wished to investigate was whether public commentary

by company management could provide leading

indicators of operating earnings performance, as

measured by earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).

2. Determine content analysis method. After determiningwhat concept I wanted to investigate, I needed to

determine what method, conceptual or relational, I

would use for my analysis. I decided to use theconceptual model (see Description section for more

detail) because this model is a straightforward method

and there is a substantial body of research using it.

3. Content analysis software. I examined several differentsoftware packages to perform my analysis. The first


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package I investigated was QDA Minerfrom Provalis

Research. It is a mixed methods qualitative data

analysis package for coding, annotating, retrieving and

analyzing collections of documents. QDA Minercan

also be used to code transcripts, legal documents,

journal articles, and books. QDA Minercoding and

annotating features means that it is a tool that is geared

more towards a relational content analysis. The

package did support the conceptual model through its

text-mining feature, but that required the use of a

dictionary that was not provided with the tool. Giventhe 10-week time frame I had to work with it seemed

implausible to create my own dictionary of financial

indicator terms. This limitation essentially ruled QDA

Minerout from consideration.

Another software package I investigated is called

MaxQDA from VERBI GmbH. MaxQDAsfunctionality is very similar to QDA Miner, however its

text-mining feature is not part of the base product and

requires an additional licensing fee to use. MaxQDA

was eliminated for the same reason as QDA Miner.

The final package I examined was theLinguisticInquiry and Word Counter(LIWC) that was designed

by James Pennebaker

from the University of

Texas. LIWC is based

on Pennebakers

research into the use of

pronouns and functionwords to determine an

authors or speakers

motivation and

intentions. The software

package calculates the


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degree to which different categories are used in source

texts. Pennebakers (2011) theory and software fit

with the conceptual content analysis model I wished to

follow. LIWC is the software I would use for my

analysis.

4. Finding source texts. I collected source texts fromSeeking Alpha. The website maintains transcripts from

investor conference calls. I searched for transcripts

from 2007 to the present (2012). From the website I

was able to extract the text of the call for RIM, AAPL,

GOOG, and NOK and save them into a MS-Wordformatted filed. From Seeking Alpha, I was able to

download 120 transcripts between the four companies.

I had also downloaded the Management Discussion and

Analysis (MDA) section from the companies SEC

annual 10-k filings. However, the language used in the

MDA was very boilerplate and show very little

difference in pronoun usage and I was concerned it wasskewing my results.

5. Execution. After I had was satisfied with the amount oftexts for each company I began my analysis using

LIWC. The output of the LIWC software produced

results counting words for several different categories.

Specifically, LIWC identified word usage commonlyassociated with positive and negative emotion, and uses

of first person singular and plural pronouns. The use of

first person pronouns is significant because according

to Pennebacker an increased usage of first person

singular pronouns (I) is indicative of a depressed

state of mind and a lack of confidence, while first

person plural pronouns (We) is indicative ofconfidence and a feeling of superiority.

With the output of LIWC I graphed the usage of words

for the companies. My graphs were intended to help

assist in the identification of general trends or long-term


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patters. The graphs also had the benefit of making the

data easy to present to viewers of the data, and an

eventual decision-maker.

Once I had the output of LIWC I attempted to correlate

the word usage to the companys EBIT to identify. I

also attempted to run a regression using SPSS on theLIWC results and the companies reported results to see

if a statistical significance existed.

Figure 1: Apple, Inc. Negative Emotion

compared with Operating Profit Margin

Figure 2: Scatter Plot showing the correlation

of Operating Revenue with First Person

Singular (I) Pronouns


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Conclusion

The results of the conceptual content analysis produced

results that are interesting; however, it did not produce

results that are estimative. If the scope of my analysishad been broadened to include more aspects of

relational content analysis, incorporated a larger set of

documents and transcripts, and been conducted using a

longer time period content analysis is likely to get the

analyst closer to a more estimative outcome than I was

able to achieve over the 10-weeks of the project.

Additional Resources

http://secretlifeofpronouns.com/

http://www.liwc.net/

http://www.provalisresearch.com/

http://www.maxqda.com/http://www-

01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/

stats-standard/

http://writing.colostate.edu/guides/research/content/

http://academic.csuohio.edu/kneuendorf/content/
http://secretlifeofpronouns.com/http://www.liwc.net/http://www.provalisresearch.com/http://www.maxqda.com/http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/stats-standard/http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/stats-standard/http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/stats-standard/http://writing.colostate.edu/guides/research/content/http://academic.csuohio.edu/kneuendorf/content/http://academic.csuohio.edu/kneuendorf/content/http://academic.csuohio.edu/kneuendorf/content/http://writing.colostate.edu/guides/research/content/http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/stats-standard/http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/stats-standard/http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/statistics/stats-standard/http://www.maxqda.com/http://www.provalisresearch.com/http://www.liwc.net/http://secretlifeofpronouns.com/


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Chapter 4: Dephi Method

Puru Naidu

Description

Delphi Method is a tool that uses intuitive opinions,

ideas, and thoughts of a group of experts to forecast,

estimate, and decision-making of events and trends. It is

based on the principle that forecasts from a structured

group of individuals are more accurate than those from

unstructured groups. (Rowe and Wright, 2001). The

method can be used to gain consensus on future trends

and projections through a systematic process of

communication and information gathering. (Yousuf,

2007)

Strengths

Flexibility. The biggest strength of Delphi is its flexibility with

participants geographical presence, time, and cost. The

participants can be geographically dispersed while taking part

in the study. The study can be conducted over days or weeks,

and is not time sensitive. The study can be conducted use tools

available on the Internet, and is very cost effective.

Anonymity. The study requires that the participants are

anonymous to other participants. This not only gives equal

opportunity for all participants to voice their ideas and opinions

that may not do so during a live group discussion, but also

prevent participants social status or career status from

influence other members projections.

Simplistic. The method is very simple and easy to comprehend.

The participants can be briefed on the study with just few


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sentences, and they will a good understanding of the purpose

and process of the study.

WeaknessesFacilitator. The method requires a facilitator that constructs,

re-constructs, and analyzes the questionnaires. The facilitators

limited knowledge and biases can influence the forecasting.

Does not work in all circumstances. There is no statistical data

indicating the effectiveness of the Delphi method. It does notnecessarily work for short-range forecasting.

Participant Interaction. The study is only effective when there

are indebt opinions and increased interaction. The study may

require more than two rounds of questionnaires to reach a more

precise forecast.

How-To

1. Identify the topic and resources. Delphi method is aforecasting tool, and hence the topic should align with

its purpose. The organization or individual conducting

this study should identify the facilitator and the channel

of communication that will facilitate the study.

2. Identify the participants. Once the study topic andresources are established, the facilitator needs to look

for participants that have the required expertise in the

topic.

3. Initiate the first round of questionnaire. Send out thefirst round of questionnaire. The questionnaire should

be carefully constructed without any biases and stay inrelevance to the topic of study. It should also include a

basic description of the study.

4. Analyze results. After the first round of questionnaires,the facilitator should analyze all the responses and use

it to reconstruct the second round of questionnaire.


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5. Second round of questionnaire. Send out the secondround of questionnaire. The questionnaire should

include all the views and opinions of all participants

from the first round for other participants to review.

Note: The facilitator can use more than two rounds of

questionnaires until a desired state is reached in the

study.

6. Analyze and Report. Following the last round ofquestionnaires, the facilitator should analyze the

responses and state the findings of the study.


1. Identify the topic and resources. I chose to apply Delphimethod to forecast the outcomes of two events. Premier

League Soccer match between Arsenal and Chelsea,

April 21, 2012, and the Second round off of 2012

French Presidential Elections. My most feasible

resources for the study were Google Docs and schoolemails.

2. Identify the participants. The participants for thePremier League topic were the soccer enthusiasts who

followed soccer regularly, and were once soccer players

them selves. The participants for the French elections

topic were diverse but within college environment. The

participants included students who took political theory

class, students from Western Europe, and students who

followed European news closely. The participants were

talked to individually and made aware of the study.

3. Initiate the first round of questionnaire. Using Googledocs, I constructed the first questionnaire and contacted

the participants through email with the questionnairelinks, and provided them with a time frame to take the

questionnaire. For the soccer study, my forecast

question was Who will win the Premier League match

between Arsenal and Chelsea scheduled on 21 April

2012. And, for the French elections study, my forecast


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question was Who will win the next French

presidential election? Giving the participants all the

possible outcomes of those events to choose from, I

asked them to give their reasons as to why they chose

that. Along with their confidence level in their

predictions.

4. Analyze results. After the first round of questionnaires,I analyzed all the responses and collaborated the

different reasons the participants gave in order of their

predictions. In soccer study, most participants predicted

Arsenal to win because of its good team form and itshome field advantage. There were other participants

who included other factors that would lead Chelsea to

win. In the French elections study, all the participants

chose Hollande to win, with their reasons being the poll

standings and recent news sources that indicated

Hollande to win.

5. Second round of questionnaire. Following the analysisof the first round of questionnaire, I reconstructed the

questionnaire for the second round of questionnaire. I

listed all the views and opinions, and asked the

participants to rate the relevance of the views and

opinions to the outcome of the event.

6.

Analyze and Report. After analyzing the outcomes ofboth the studies, I am inclined to state that Delphi

method doesnt always work, and can also be used with

participants who are not experts in the research topic. In

the soccer study, all participants were experts in the

topic, but failed to predict the correct outcome.

Nevertheless, there was some sort of consensus within

participants with the ratings of the relevancy of theviews and opinions listed in the second round of

questionnaires. In the French elections study, the

participants were not experts in this topic, however they

possessed the abilities for indebt analysis for

forecasting of this event. All the participants predicted


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correct outcome starting from the first questionnaire

and did not change their views.

7. Report results. I presented my analysis and findings toanother Delphi method enthusiast, Mark Burgman, a

professor at the University of Melbourne, Australia.

Conclusion

Delphi Method is a simple forecasting tool that uses

expert opinions and views to forecast the outcome of an

event. Its strengths include its simplicity, costeffectiveness, and the ability of geographically

dispersed participants to take part in the study.

However, in my personal application of this study, I

find that it does not work in all circumstances. Within

the two groups of study, the soccer study group, who

were the experts in topics, was unable to predict the

correct outcome. The French elections study group,despite their lack of expertise in the topic, was able to

predict the right outcome. All qualitative studies state

its effectiveness, but there is no quantitative data to

prove it, and hence needs more research.


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Chapter 5: Game Theory

Shawn Ruminski

Description

In general, game theory is a branch of reasoning commonly

used in economics and political theory. It is best used to

understand the interactions between decision-makers. The

traditional applications of game theory involve modeling

situations in such a way that they represent a simplification of

reality. They are an abstraction we use to understand our

observations and experiences (Osborne, 2000). More

specifically, there are some basic requirements to games.

There are two or more players

There is some choice of action where strategy matters There is at least one outcome, leading to a winner and a

loser

The outcome depends on strategic interaction betweenthe players (Duffy, 2012)

Game theory, at least in the iteration studied for the purposes of

this course, involves two actors with finite choices. Thesechoices have a tangible, measureable consequence. The actors

are rational, meaning that they actively seek to maximize their

payoffs. The game being modeled is most often set up in a

matrix, with the payoffs for each decision laid out in the grid

for each actor. Given the choice between two payoffs, the

actors will pick the higher number.The most common example of game theory is the Prisoners

Dilemma. This is an excellent model which is commonly used

in law enforcement. It shows why two individuals might not

cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interest to do

so. The classic description of the Prisoners Dilemma follows:


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Two men are arrested,

but the police do not

possess enough

information for a

conviction. Following

the separation of the two

men, the police offer

both a similar dealif

one testifies against his

partner (confesses), and the other remains silent (denies),the confessor gets a reduced punishment and the

uncooperative man receives the largest sentence. If both

remain silent, both are sentenced to only one month in jail

for a minor charge. If each 'rats out' the other, each receives

a three-month sentence. Each prisoner must choose either

to betray or remain silent; the decision of each is kept quiet.

In this example, the socially preferred course of action is for

both to deny. However, each man is incentivized to confess,

because their individual payoffs increase with confession.

Game theory can be very useful at analyzing and predicting

strategic interactions between actors, but its efficacy is limitedby the accuracy of the model. For this reason, the applications

of game theory are limited. Shubik suggested that while game

theory may be applicable to actual games (such as

backgammon or chess), and may even be useful for

constructing a model to approximate an economic structure

such as a market, it is much harder to consider being able to

trap the subtleties of a family quarrel or an international treatybargaining session (Shubik, 1975). In many situations, actors

are unable to perfectly discern their environment, or their goals

shift over time. These, in particular, are difficult to account for

in game theory. A study done by Green found that game

theoretic experts forecasts were correct only 32 per cent of the


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page 33

time, compared with 34 per cent for unaided judgment by

experts and 62 per cent for simulated-interaction (role-playing)

by novices (Green, 2003).

In the proper situations, however, game theory is very useful

for forecasting the interactions between rational actors. Often

times, the simpler games offer more accurate forecasts.

However, the key factor in the effectiveness is rational choice

(Osborne, 2000). Humans do not always act rationally, and this

puts game theory at a significant disadvantage.

Strengths

Focus on the actions of individuals. Rather than being

distracted by temporal elements of the situation, game

theory distills it to the essential, which is the set of

actions possibly taken by either actor.

Should help counter judgmental biases. By examiningthe scenario and identifying the most significant

variables, the analyst will often counter cognitive biases

held regarding the situation as a whole (Green, 2003).

Breaking the scenario into its respective parts interrupts

these biases.

Useful with undisputed assumptions. When the the basic

facts of the environment as translated into the model are

generally agreed upon, game theory tends to be very

successful in exhibiting the qualities of the actual

scenario.

Applicable to a variety of fields. Game theory is provento be effective when applied to military and economics. It

has also been useful, although to a lesser extent, in law,

ethics, sociology, biology, and classic parlor games

(Martin, 1978).


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Weaknesses

Humans do not always act rationally. It is difficult to

game the impact of subjective influences (such as

marketing or advertising in economics)

Quantifying payoffs is difficult. When looking at complex

political models, or other qualitative situations, subtle

differences in the payoffs for actors may have a

significant impact on the optimum strategies for those

actors.

Difficult applications to complex situations. Game theory

is not very effective at modeling complex situations with

many actors. Even in situations with few actors, the

modeling often restricts the number of possible actions

for either actor, since each action much be quantified and

analyzed.

Often constricts the number of options for actors.

Modeling real world environments involves simplifying

the variables. Often this means only analyzing the most

plausible activities for actors. Although in reality actors

could conceivable do any number of different things, in

game theory this is not the case.

How To

1. Isolate the situation to be modeled. The situation mustinclude two or more actors, strategic choices, and some

possible outcomes.

2. Model the situation. The environment must besimplified and distilled into its most relevant variables.

3. Identify actors. For the purposes of this investigation,the number of actors was limited to two.

4. Identify the set of actions available to each actor. Thismay constrict the options available to decision makers.


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5. Assign payoffs to each actor for every possible action.This most often takes the form of a matrix

(simultaneous games) or a game tree (sequential

games).

6. Forecast the probable actions of each actor. This isbased on the rational choices they will make in the

game. This will involve some mathematical calculation

of mixed strategies, such as Nash Equilibrium or

another technique (Osborne, 2000)


1. Isolate the situation to be modeled. I chose to examinespecific situations in a basketball game, from a

coaching standpoint. I am familiar with the game of

basketball, which has many aspects that translate well

to game theoretic analysis. I specifically identified both

dealing with foul trouble, and an end of game scenario

where a team is down two points near the end ofregulation with the ball.

2. Model the situation. For the situation of foul trouble,the application of game theory was much more difficult

than for the second situation. This was because it was

difficult to model the actions of the coach versus the

actions of the player for foul trouble. In the second

scenario, I simplified the end of the game to two actors,

with two possible actions each.

3. Identify actors. For the first situation, the actor was thecoach, with the second actor being the teams starter or

bench player. In the second situation, the actors were

the two coaches involved in the game.

4. Identify the set of actions available to each actor. Forthe first situation, the coachs actions are benching orplaying a starter in foul trouble. The players actions

were their performance on the court. This was

determined by a statistic called Wins Produced per 48

minutes (WP48). In the second situation, the coach of


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the team that has the lead, the defending coach, could

choose to defend a two point shot or a three point shot.

The coach of the team that is losing, the offensive

coach, can choose either to shoot a two point shot or a

three point shot.

5. Assign payoffs to each actor for every possible action.For the first situation, payoffs were assigned based on

the calculated probability of fouling out, coupled with

the WP48 statistic. In the second situation, payoffs for

shooting or defending each shot were based on shooting

percentages from this past year in the NBA, and studiesregarding open shooting percentages and the effect of

good defense on shooting percentages.

6. Forecast the probable actions of each actor. For thefirst situation, the coach should let his starters play, in

spite of foul trouble. However, I provided data that this

is often not the case. In the second situation, the

analysis shows that it is likely in the best interests of thelosing team to shoot the three almost all the time. As

long as the defending (winning) team guards the three

pointer less

than about

80% of the

time, thelosing team

should seek

to end the

game in

regulation

every time.

Similarly,the team that is ahead should fear the three pointer

much more than overtime. As long as the team that is

losing shoots the three at least a third of the time, the

defending team should always defend the three.


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Conclusion

Game theory is an excellent way to evaluate actors most

effective strategies. However, an effective application involvesa situation with accurate modeling, including the preciseevaluation of payoffs, is required in order to get the most out ofgame theory as an intelligence methodology. Furthermore, it isimportant to assess the target actors evaluation of payoffs,rather than applying an arbitrary evaluation. However, givenapplicable situations and accurate models, game theory lendsitself well to intelligence analysis and forecasting.


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Chapter 6: Comparative News Frame

Analysis

Emily Slegel

Description

Comparative News Frame Analysis is an analytic modifier that

uses quantitative and qualitative analysis of words in texts to

understand how one specific frame is being presented acrossnewspapers and media outlets across cultures and countries by

comparing analyzed frames. Frames are how an individual

cognitively comprehends and files events, and the news can

provide a pseudo-environment for the readers, thus framing

the event for the public. The frames adopted by media to cover

terrorism and the ones adopted by governments to report and

respond to have the power to influence the societys perception

of terrorist activity. Comparative News Frame Analysis is used

to determine one specific frame thus understanding the

perception of terrorist activity, for example, within that country

or culture comparing it to other frames to understand the

current situation. Comparative News Frame Analysis can be

applied to various issues and events in history, from crises tothe adoption of governmental policies. The technique is

reliable up to a certain point, but is limited solely based on the

understanding of the topic and technique. The method is fairly

flexible and useful even with a small, but sufficient, amount of

data.

Within Comparative News Frame Analysis, there are a varietyof qualitative and quantitative techniques within which to

compare frames in newspapers. One technique includes

discourse analysis, which seeks to understand links between

texts by identifying particular frames. This is done by reading


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the text several times and marking certain contextual items

present. A quantitative technique for comparative news frame

analysis is centering resonance analysis. This type of analysis

calculates the words influence within texts, using their

position in the texts structure of words. Once the influential

words scores are calculated, these results indicate the authors

intentional acts regarding word choice and message meaning.

The analyst then can draw conclusions from these messages to

determine the frame.

Strengths

Can use a small data set to draw conclusions. Comparative

News Frame analysis does not require a large data set in order

to draw conclusions. The method is also very useful with

textual data. There are no limits to the amount of news sources

being examined.

Method is easily understood. Due to previous literature andacademic research the method is well documented and is easy

to understand.

Can be used in variety of languages. Native speakers in non-

English languages will be able to use this technique.

Any news source can be analyzed. Any topic can be analyzed

using Comparative News Frame Analysis.

The results can be easily communicated to decision makers.

Using quantitative techniques, it is an easy method to complete

with aid of software.

Weaknesses

Can only examine one frame/event at a time. The method does

not allow for more than one event to be examined at a time.


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For more robust results a larger amount of data is required.

Some articles do not contain relevant textual items to

examine/analyze. If few articles are available more robust

results may not be possible. It may be challenging to find

articles on one frame from different areas.

Conclusions require experienced and knowledge of analysts.

Once the data is produced, the analyst must draw conclusions

on the frames based upon: experience, knowledge and previous

literature

Susceptible to denial and deception. The analysis relies on

what is published in the media, therefore denial and deceptions

tactics can skew the results.

How-To

1. Pick a problem or issue to examine that is able to seenacross cultures or countries.

2. Research writings on the problem or issue that comefrom that region, country, or culture including

examining local newspaper articles, national newspaper

articles and blog sources.

3. Pick articles on the topic.4. Determine qualitative, quantitative or mix techniques

for the analysis:

a. Qualitative TechniquesDiscourse Analysis:Articles are read over to identify frames, which

include conflict, human interests, economic

consequences, morality and responsibility.

These frames are identified by symbols that

carry specific attitudes and positions, whichinclude: metaphors, exemplars, catch phrases,

depictions, visual images and appeals to

principal. Examine the percentages of favorable

terms, neutral terms and unfavorable terms.


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page 41

b. Quantitative TechniqueCentering ResonanceAnalysis: I used Crawdad, which is software

based on the concept of CRA. CRA analyzes

text by creating word networks of nouns and

noun phrases that represent main concepts, their

influence and their relationships. Simply input

the .txt file into the program and convert it to

Crawdad-specific format (.cra). From there

the software completes all the calculations on

the desired articles individually. Crawdad

calculates two scores for each article, theinfluence and resonance scores. The higher the

scores, the more influences and more

betweenness centrality the word has within that

article. Influence scores range from 0 to 1. A

score of 0.05 or higher is considered significant

by leading researchers in the area, and a

score above 0.1 is considered very significant.5. Once results are achieved, determine the trends and

draw conclusions.

6. Can make Excel graphs and other methods to visualizethe results to decision maker.


1. Identify concept. The first step was to choose a terroristattack/event. I had to choose an event that had each

article would be long enough in terms of words to

compare, as well as had a variety of international news

coverage. I chose the Madrid Train Bombing because

of the international coverage that it had, as well as the

articles had enough words to use for comparison. Thechallenge was that there was a lot of repetition of a

single article in many news sources, so finding an

original source of news coverage on the attack was a

challenge. By using Google News Search Engine and

LexusNexus I was only able to find 6 news articles that


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were locally written. The concept I wished to

investigate was if the Madrid Train Bombing was

viewed differently in different countries and regions to

understand the perception of terrorism in those

countries.

2. Determine Comparative News Frame Analysis. Once Ipicked the event, I started researching the variety of

news frame analysis available to determine the

appropriate frame analysis method to use. I began

investigating strategic frame analysis, which analyzes

news by looking at the subtle selection of certainaspects of an issue in order to frame the event. This

would not work for my topic, for I wanted to analyze

different countries or regions perception of the

Madrid Train Bombing by analyzing the frames in the

news. Then I discovered a variant of news frame

analysis that is Comparative News Frame Analysis,

which looks at one particular topic and compares theframes presented by analyzed news articles in various

areas of the world. I decided to use this method for

there is a large body of research using this type of

analysis to research similar topics.

3. Research Frames and Framing. After determining mymethod to understand how the Madrid Train Bombingis viewed in different countries, I started researching

what frames are and what they do and can do. This was

a large and lengthy process due to the vast amount of

information available. There are also different academic

views of frames and framing, for example psychology

and sociology have two different views of frames and

framing and I had to determine which definition offrames I would like to use when applying Comparative

News Frame Analysis. It is important to note that an

analyst would need to have strong background

knowledge of frames and framing to fully understand

the results of the analysis. I read the book Psychology


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page 43

of Prejudice to understand the topic of prejudice and

stereotyping along with other articles on frames and

framing.

4. Choosing Techniques. There are a variety of methods toconduct comparative news frame analysis, but based

upon previous research, which focused on news

coverage of other terrorist events, I followed the same

path of using discourse analysis, a qualitative

technique, and centering resonance analysis, a

quantitative technique.

5. Execution. When applying discourse analysis to my sixnewspaper articles, this technique appeared to have thepotential to be easily flawed and did not prove to be an

effective way to analyze the newspapers. I have

concluded that for the qualitative analysis, one would

need a very good knowledge of identifying textual

items including metaphors, exemplars, catch phrases

and depictions. Besides being able to simply identifythese textual items the analyst would also have to know

what it means. This could easily cause issues to the

everyday analyst using this one method of analysis.

Also I did note that some articles didnt contain some of

the textual items to examine/analyze, which I figured

was going to happen but nonetheless was a challenge.


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I chose centering resonance analysis as the quantitative

technique, for the other types of quantitative analysis used in

other papers seemed to focus on the content itself, not the

relationships that these words have in the articles, which helps

the analyst understand the frame of the newspaper article. This

was seen in a study that also studied a particular act of

terrorism, comparing US to UK newspapers. I used Centering

Resonance Software by Crawdad. The software was easy to

use, though the analyst must draw the conclusions, which can

be subjected because it is based upon experience, knowledge

and previous experience. Crawdad also made it very easy to

visually understand the differences between the newspapers

when looking at the links and relationships between the words.

After reading all the results of the different articles, I made avery quick and simple graph, which enabled the results to be

easily understood.


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page 45

ConclusionThe results of the quantitative and qualitative techniques are

replicable, but it allows for the analysts to introduce bias into

the conclusion. Comparative News Frame Analysis can help an

analyst further in his or her research in an area or topic but its

results do not produce an intelligence estimate itself. Also, the

method was easy to complete with aid of the software and canhelp an analyst communicate to the decision maker because of

the low technical word usage and is theoretically easy to

understand. Finally, I was able to answer my question on how

different countries perceive terrorism but I would need more

data to have more robust results.

Further Information

Crawdad Technologies, L. (2005). Crawdad Text Analysis

System version 1.2. Chandler, AZ.

http://www.crawdadtech.com/

IYENGAR, S., & SIMON, A. (1993). News coverage of the

gulf crisis and public opinion a study of agenda-setting,

priming, and framing. Communication Research, 20(3), 365-

383. Retrieved from

http://crx.sagepub.com/content/20/3/365.short

KOENIG, T. (2006). Compounding mixed-methods problems

in frame analysis through comparative research. Qualitative


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Research, 6(61), 6176. Retrieved from

http://qrj.sagepub.com/content/6/1/61.full.pdf

Papacharissi, Z., & Oliveira, M. (2008). News frames

terrorism: A comparative analysis of frames employed interrorism coverage in u.s. and u.k. newspapers. The

International Journal of Press/Politics , 13(1), 52-74 . Retrieved

from http://hij.sagepub.com/content/13/1/52.full.pdf+html

Zanna, M. P., & Olson, J. M. (1994). The psychology of

prejudice. Lawrence Erlbaum.

ZHANG, J., & FAHMY, S. (2009). Colored revolutions incolored lenses: A comparative analysis of u.s. and russian press

coverage of political movements in ukraine, belarus, and

uzbekistan. International Journal of Communication, 3, 517-

539. Retrieved from

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=

web&cd=10&sqi=2&ved=0CH4QFjAJ&url=http://ijoc.org/ojs/

index.php/ijoc/article/download/253/327&ei=cACHT-

x6iODRAfHpwY0H&usg=AFQjCNGIxbLtYMSJLPBImON6

acbcPmoCEQ&sig2=IQ2IZouGQJjAY0pPwduprw


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