advantages, disadvantages and challenges of online course
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TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate ChangeKevin LutenKevin Luten
Transport is fastest growing sector of GHG emissions in OECD (↑25%) and non-OECD (↑36%) countries (1990-2002)
Similar growth forecast through 2030 Fastest growth in non-OECD countries, yet
OECD transport emissions still very significant
Climate Change & TransportationClimate Change & Transportation
Socolow and Pacala, Princeton University
TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change
Transportation Wedge Options: Increase fuel economy of two billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg Drive two billion cars on ethanol or hydrogen* Drive two billion cars not 10,000 but 5,000 km/year (at 30 mpg)
Climate Change & TransportationClimate Change & Transportation
Transport solutions:1. Fuel-efficiency (vehicle & engine design)2. Decrease carbon intensity of fuels3. Reduce vehicle miles traveled
Total success with #1 and #2 does not address: Traffic congestion Public health
TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change
Are there opportunities for TDM related to climate change?
Who are we selling TDM to? Individuals Businesses Political leaders
TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change
Distinctions in TDM sales angles…
Congestion Air quality Public health (stress, obesity, etc.) Business bottom-line benefits Environmental benefits Energy efficiency, energy independence More…
Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals
Individuals… Washington Post / ABC News Poll:
Doubling within a year of Americans (33%) that think climate change is biggest environmental problem facing the world
Single digits in mid-1990s Katrina, temperatures, other weather events Inconvenient Truth IPCC Report, Stern Report
Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals
Washington Post / ABC News Poll: How willing are you personally to change some
of the things you do in order to help improve the environment - very willing, somewhat willing, not so willing or not willing at all?
94% - willing, somewhat willing What if it means some personal inconvenience
- would you be as willing to change some of the things you do, or less so?
85% - still willing
Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals
Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals
A standard environmental issue? Poll: 70% feel climate change will pose a serious
threat to future generations 63% believe we must start addressing it today 50% believe steps must be taken today, even if
there is a high economic cost to the US 40%, if politically conservatives
1,000 born-again or evangelical Protestants
Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals
Evangelical Climate Initiative: Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action Signed by 39 evangelical colleges, the
Salvation Army, Rick Warren, and others Positions climate change as a moral issue and
a social justice issue Calls for Federal action requiring
reductions in CO2 emissions
Individuals…
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
Roles for business? Risk management Direct opportunities Competitive advantage
Reducing emissions “will save money for our customers, make us a more efficient business, and help position us to compete effectively in a carbon-constrained world.”
- Lee Scott, Wal-mart
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
Business risks Physical Regulatory Competitive Reputational
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP): 304 investors, US$41 trillion (32%) Backed by HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Bank
of America, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs Seeks information and data on emissions
and business risks and opportunities from climate change
940 of the world’s largest companies reported in CDP4 in 2006 (72% if FT500)
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
GlobeScan, 2006
DEH, 2005
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
Competitive Advantage on a Warming Planet: Quantify your carbon “footprint” (GHG inventory) Assess your carbon-related risks and opportunities Adapt your business Do it better than rivals
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
WRI / WBCSD Greenhouse Gas Protocol:
1. Organisational boundaries2. Operational boundaries
“direct” and “indirect” emissions
WRI / WBCSD
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
Guidance for Scope 3 emissions: “Relevance and significance” of these
emissions to org. operations or goals As defined by any / all of 4 factors:
1. Relative size2. Risk3. Stakeholder concern4. Company influence
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
Relative Significance
andInfluence
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
Companies influence commute behavior: 86% of employees without employer program drive
alone versus 71% of employees with employer programs (U.S. nationwide survey, 2001)
Total vehicle trips declined by 17% after employers at eight worksites launched parking cash out programs (Shoup, 1997)
Employees teleworking take 30% fewer daily trips, with a 63% reduction in VKT (all daily trips)
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
Companies influence commute behaviour:
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
Employer-paid parking increases solo driving 60%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Solo
driv
er s
hare
Driver-paid parkingEmployer-paid parking
42%
67%
GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories
Three examples: World Resources Institute IKEA Six New Zealand government agencies
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
Overlapping corporate initiatives:1. GHG emissions analysis / mitigation (CDP)2. Sustainability reporting (GRI)3. Corporate social responsibility programmes4. Employee health & wellness programmes5. Workplace TDM programs
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
LTNZ Workplace
Travel Planning
Guide
WRI GHG Protocol
Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business
Critical issues moving forward: Establish norms for inclusion of employee
commutes in GHG inventories for knowledge and service organization (gov’t leadership)
Stress process linkages Carpe diem
Climate Change & PoliticsClimate Change & Politics
PlaNYC: A Greener, Greater New York Congestion charging, revenue for transit BRT lanes Increase bike paths, promote bicycling Eliminate tax on hybrids
Climate Change & PoliticsClimate Change & Politics
US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement –
600 mayors signed on
TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change
Potential threats: Individual attitudes and motivation to act
unsatisfied, or satisfied through other means Cap-trade induced demand overwhelms TDM Business rapidly assemble climate change
strategies without TDM TDM not seen as too minor a solution Political push leads to funding and
mainstreaming of sustainable transport strategies separate from TDM groups
www.urbantrans-anz.comwww.urbantrans-anz.comKevin LutenKevin Luten +61 (03) 9018 5435 +61 (03) 9018 5435
[email protected]@urbantrans-anz.com