advisory group meeting 10 october 2008 work package 1: mortality trends and their implications
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Advisory group meeting
10 October 2008
Work Package 1: Mortality trends and their implications
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications
To model and project mortality levels and trends:Overall patterns in Britain & other developed countries
Marital-status differences in mortality
Cause-specific mortality to assess the sensitivity to assumptions about future prevalence and incidence of the key set of diseases
Sex differentials
Socio-demographic variables and how they may change in decades to come
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications
Outputs:
Forecasts & cross-national analyses of mortality trends using a range of recently-developed statistical methods as inputs to other Work Packages
Elucidate processes by which cohort effects may work through particular diseases by analysing the role of cause-specific mortality
Assess whether socio-economic differentials continue up to the highest ages, and, in particular, whether these differentials are changing over time.
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications
Project-specific Inputs & Outputs:
Mortality rates by sex, age and some variables e.g. marital status in period up to 2030 used to produce estimates of numbers of older people under a range of alternative assumptions.
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications
Mortality trends & implications linkages
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: Modelling mortality using age period cohort (APC) models
Tesselation of mortality surface in symmetric format
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades
Mortality actual
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades
Mortality, all ages 16 & over
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades
Limiting long−standing illness actual
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades
limiting long−standing illness, all ages 16 & over; N=508046 model= ns
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: age and proximity to death as factors in use of acute and long-term care services
Average Number of Days in Hospital/LTC, in previous 12 months by Sex, Age and Survival status, Finland
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Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: age and proximity to death as factors in use of acute and long-term care services
Average Number of Days in Hospital/LTC, in previous 12 months by Age, Marital status and Survival status, Finland
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Work package 3: Kinship analysis
Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the middle of the 19th century: proportions of women ever−married by exact ages 35,40 and 45
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Work package 3: Kinship analysis
Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the middle of the 19th century: all series (combined marriage ages), adjusted for non−marriage
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Work package 3: Kinship analysis
Data quality in retrospective surveys: childlessness estimates by cohort & age at interview (smoothed)
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Work package 3: Kinship analysis: changing kinship universes across the demographic transition
Average number of living kin: comparison of survey and model data
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Work package 3: Kinship analysis: changing kinship universes across the demographic transition
Proportion with living natural parents
by age of ego