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  • 7/29/2019 Advt n Disadvt of Six Sigma

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    Six Triumphs and Six Tragedies

    of Six SigmaT. N. Goh

    Industrial and Systems

    Engineering Department,

    National University of Singapore,

    Singapore

    ABSTRACT Six Sigma as a quality improvement framework has enjoyed an

    unprecedented long period of popularity. This article brings out factors

    that contribute to the uniqueness of Six Sigma, with its extensions and

    derivatives such as Design for Six Sigma and Lean Six Sigma. Those features

    that have brought about an impetus for quality improvement are regarded as

    triumphs of Six Sigma, whereas some worrying trends in the practice of

    Six Sigma are labeled as tragedies. Clearly, industry should leverage onthe strengths of Six Sigma and be careful not to become unwitting victims

    of the weaknesses. A realistic and balanced view is certainly called for at this

    juncture, and the advantages and pitfalls associated with Six Sigma should

    be fully recognized if Six Sigma is to continue its winning streak of the past

    quarter of a century.

    KEYWORDS Design for Six Sigma, Lean Six Sigma, quality engineering, quality

    management, Six Sigma, statistical thinking

    INTRODUCTION

    Some 20 years ago, at the height of popularity and controversy of the

    so-called Taguchi methodsexemplified by Taguchi (1986)an article

    by Pignatellio and Ramberg (1991) appeared in Quality Engineering point-

    ing out the positive and negative aspects of the Taguchi version of quality

    engineering and experimental design, with the euphoria in industry at that

    time as a backdrop. Today, Taguchi is no longer on the lips of quality

    engineers and managersat least, it is not deemed fashionable anymore

    to talk about it. In fact, consultants can no longer make easy money

    by repeating the NBC mantra If Japan can, why cant you? With the

    recent great Toyota automobile recalls, from now on even the ToyotaMethod of production probably will have to be put on the back burner

    at least for some time. This article addresses a subject that is all American,

    something that has replaced Taguchi method as the most talked-about

    quality improvement approach for almost two decades. This is, of course,

    Six Sigma, on which there has been such an abundance of literature that

    elaboration on its contents would be unnecessarysee, for example,

    Harry and Schroder (1999), Hahn et al. (2000), Goh (2002), and Brady

    and Allen (2006).

    Address correspondence to T. N. Goh,

    Industrial and Systems EngineeringDepartment, National University of

    Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent,Singapore, 119260. E-mail:

    [email protected]

    Quality Engineering, 22:299305, 2010

    Copyright# Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

    ISSN: 0898-2112 print=1532-4222 online

    DOI: 10.1080/08982112.2010.495102

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    Six Sigma, in the course of its development, has

    generated a number of derivatives and extensions,

    such as Design for Six Sigmae.g., Tennant

    (2002)and Lean Six Sigmae.g., George (2002).

    In this article, the term Six Sigma covers all these

    variants collectively because they share basically

    the same analytical foundations, with similar modes

    of application. Regardless of the variant, Six Sigma

    has commanded wide attention in industry and,much like the Taguchi phenomenon in the 1980s,

    success stories abound in many publications; detrac-

    tors inevitably also have their say from time to time;

    for example, Lee (2001), Schrage (2001), Morris

    (2006), and Mika (2006). However, arguments

    against Six Sigma such as these are not usually

    made on rigorous grounds; likewise, promoters of

    Six Sigma tend to offer casual promises such as

    Savings can hit $300 K per project, so a single Black

    Belt can potentially bring a company $1.2 million to

    the good annually (Harry and Crawford 2005).Thus, some realistic assessment of all things Six

    Sigma at this juncture would not be out of place,

    in view of the surge of interests in Six Sigma in indus-

    try on one hand and the considerable investments

    made by companies in manpower development

    and external expertise on the other. Only with better

    understanding of the subject could an organization

    leverage on Six Sigmas strengths and overcome its

    weaknesses and be able to answer this question with

    confidence: To Six Sigma, or not to Six Sigma?

    WHAT QUALIFIES TO BE MENTIONED

    Just as Pignatellio and Ramberg (1991) effectively

    used the triumphs and tragedies categorization

    to highlight the notable aspects of Taguchi methods,

    a similar approach is taken here with respect to Six

    Sigma. Discussions of features of Six Sigma abound

    in the literature, such as Hahn (2005), but presented

    here will be the most important facts that an individ-

    ual or company ought to know about Six Sigma.

    For this reason, only six of each category are broughtup, though the lists could be readily extended.

    Some explanation of these categories is in order.

    What constitutes a triumph? Basically, a triumph

    exists when in the field of quality engineering there

    has not been a similarly meritorious approach or

    methodology before; the item in question must be

    able to lead to a significant impact or paradigm shift,

    with results that are of practical value; that is, not just

    a theoretically elegant scenario. What, on the other

    hand, qualifies as a tragedy? The answer is any

    feature that, if unchecked, could negate a triumph,

    create misguided or misled actions, or even destroy

    what originally has been useful. The selection of

    six items in each category is by no means definitive

    or unique and has been made largely based on the

    authors personal experience in training, consulting,and research in Six Sigma over many years. Because

    the relative significance of each item is a matter of

    personal opinion, there is no particular order in

    which the items are presented in the following

    sections.

    SIX SIGMA TRIUMPHS

    Triumph No. 1

    Use of a common, realistic metric for qualityassessment and improvement: The use of critical-to-

    quality (CTQ) and defects per million opportunities

    (dpmo) as performance indices is a trademark of

    Six Sigma. Deliberations on the choice and definition

    of CTQ would help focus on the meaningful and

    avoid the inconsequential. As a yardstick for measure

    of performance, dpmo allows ready comparisons of

    performance such as one process versus another,

    before versus after, as well as cross-process com-

    parative studies. This is also associated with an

    equivalent yardstick, namely, sigma level that canbe used for purposes such as benchmarking and

    project target setting. It may be noted, though, that

    not all outcomes are binary (defective or nonde-

    fective), and in some cases even a binary classi-

    fication can be arbitrary (e.g., the time it takes to

    respond to a certain category of customer request).

    The important point is that, for the first time, zero

    defect is no longer an often-spoken-of but elusive

    goal (or worse, a lip service); instead, one is sup-

    posed to face the realistic challenges of non-zero

    defect situations squarely. This is an important para-digm shift, with which the nebulous promise of zero

    defect is abandoned, though serious efforts are made

    (with effective infrastructure and tools, as detailed in

    the descriptions of other triumphs later on) to inch

    toward that goal. Furthermore, with Six Sigma, there

    are now generic metrics for marking progress; the

    defect measurements in the hands of the quality

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    practitioner transcend processes and industries of

    different nature. Generally, concepts expressed in

    terms ofdpmo and sigma levels can be more readily

    explained and accepted by management than more

    formal mathematical jargons.

    Triumph No. 2

    Clear assignment of roles and responsibilities inperformance improvement efforts: Another important

    paradigm shift that comes with Six Sigma is ditching

    of the refrain Quality is Everybodys Business. The

    intent of this statement may be good and valid, but in

    the real world this could be taken to imply diffused

    responsibilities, especially whenever there are pro-

    blems, with the assumption that everybody is equally

    capable of handling quality issues. It is well known

    that in many situations, Everybodys Business in

    the end could degenerate into Nobodys Business.

    Not so in Six Sigma; personnel with variousdegrees of training and experience are designated

    clearly, and there are now individuals recognized

    to know more tools than others when it comes to

    performance improvement or problem solving.

    Thus, there is a commonly acknowledged hierarchy

    of people: ChampionsMaster Black BeltsBlack

    BeltsGreen BeltsYellow Belts that have different

    professional responsibilities in an organization. In

    addition, the success of Six Sigma depends largely

    on top management leadership rather than the pre-

    vious bottom-up concepts: quality control circles,for example, may still have their place in handling

    specific local problems, but they cannot be the staple

    diet for fundamental organizational performance

    enhancement and customer satisfaction.

    Triumph No. 3

    Logical alignment of statistical tools: The concept

    that the whole is larger than the sum of the parts

    cannot be truer when it comes to the deployment

    of statistical tools in Six Sigma. Many an academichas pronounced that there is nothing new in Six

    Sigma. This is true when Six Sigma methodologies

    are taken apart; for example, distribution functions

    describing variability have been described in detail

    in many books before, process capability analysis is

    a known and used concept, analysis of variance

    is recognized by every student of statistics, gage

    repeatability and reproducibility study is an

    established procedure, design of experiments is not

    a fresh concept, control charts have been applied

    for decades . . . and indeed there are already plenty

    of well-established college courses or on-the-job

    training programs on these subjects. So, whats new?

    What is new, as offered by Six Sigma, is the align-

    ment and integration of statistical toolsheretofore

    taught and learned in a disjointed mannerinto alogical, purposeful sequence for CTQ improvement

    and business competitiveness. Specifically, the

    tools are built into a DefineMeasureAnalyze

    ImprovementControl (or DMAIC) framework that

    suggests, for example, that a process be optimized

    via statistical design of experiments in the Improve

    phrase before being sustained by control chart appli-

    cations in the Control phraseinstead of drawing

    up a control chart for something that is not even

    known to be optimal or otherwise. In fact, in pre-Six

    Sigma days, the more effective the control chart, thelonger the continuation of some nonoptimized pro-

    cess. In other words, Six Sigma makes statistics work

    harder (by seeking the optimal) and smarter (by

    focusing on the best) in the hands of nonstatisticians.

    Triumph No. 4

    Recognition of the time effects on processes: Talk-

    ing about the use of statistics by nonstatisticians

    in the past, for understandable reasons, practically

    only time-invariant models are used by the rank-and-file. Six Sigma does not provide the full answer to the

    consequences of time-dependent natural changes,

    but it does bring up the concept of short-term

    versus long-term variation; that is, the 1.5 sigma

    shift in the assessment of dpmo and sigma levels.

    Although the rationale for such a shift is an unre-

    solved issue (see, for example, ASQ Discussion

    Boards [2005]), the fact remains that Six Sigma is

    the only quality improvement approach that promi-

    nently recognizes and fully takes into account what

    any experienced quality practitioner must havefaced: the relentless realization of the second law

    of thermodynamics, meaning Things left to them-

    selves will deteriorate. No procedures, formulated

    by textbooks or otherwise, prior to the advent of

    Six Sigma required practitioners to express this real

    and important phenomenon explicitly up front.

    Regardless of the exact nature of a process one

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    is handling, this is an insightful defensive and

    preemptive move.

    Triumph No. 5

    Unprecedented synergy with modern information

    technology: Six Sigma attained its popularity among

    practitioners because it arrived at the right time.

    Should Six Sigma have appeared on the scene, say,20 years earlier than the mid-1980s, it would not take

    off because it is statistics basedthe shear amount of

    data crunching would mean that only dedicated

    personnel hired to crank big and noisy mechanical

    calculators would want to have anything to do with

    it. Many have lamented the nonuse of statistics in

    industry, for example, Penzias (1989), but few have

    admitted the real and perceived obstacles, namely,

    the efforts it would take to gather, store, transform,

    and analyze data in industrial settings.

    By the 1990s, with the appearance and swiftprevalence of both hardware and software brought

    about by the age of information technology, that is,

    personal computers, notebook computers, with

    user-friendly versions of the likes of MINITAB and

    JMP, application of Six Sigma no longer demands

    deep knowledge of statistical theory or superior data

    processing capabilities. The credit may not entirely

    lie in the contents of DMAIC, but winning over

    hesitant onlookers and converting industry people

    into aficionados of statistical tools is an undeniable

    triumph of Six Sigma.

    Triumph No. 6

    Capabilities to grow for larger roles for business

    competitiveness: Unlike many other quality tools or

    certification systems that remain essentially the same

    throughout their useful life, Six Sigma is organic. Six

    Sigma as applied in industry today can be a far cry

    from the Six Sigma of the 1980s. Through the years,

    Six Sigma has been augmented, extended, and

    transformed into even more comprehensive frame-works that are applicable all the way from design

    to manufacture (of products) or implementation (of

    service systems).

    Design for Six Sigma and Lean Six Sigma, in a var-

    iety of roadmaps in different organizations, are major

    examples of the upshot of the classic Six Sigma

    formula from Motorola. The former reflects the belief

    that Prevention is better than cure, and the latter

    recognizes that waste elimination should go hand

    in hand with variation reduction. There is no appar-

    ent limit to what Six Sigma might be morphed into in

    the years to come: mass customization, for example

    (Piller and Tseng 2010), is one possible direction

    for development. In recent years, serious attempts

    to introduce Six Sigma into service sectorsgovern-

    ment, education, health care, transportation, tourism,etc.actually reflect the vitality of Six Sigma and

    constitute a veritable triumph over any narrowly

    defined and applied procedures for quality.

    SIX SIGMA TRAGEDIES

    Not all things associated with Six Sigma are flaw-

    less, however. Some of the unsatisfactory aspects of

    Six Sigma are not inherent in Six Sigma itself but in

    the way in which Six Sigma is learned or deployed.

    Left unchecked, such weaknesses could lead to theundoing of Six Sigma in the long run. Opinions could

    differ, but the accounts given below are based on

    what has been observed in industry.

    Tragedy No. 1

    The belief that Six Sigma (as typical Black Belts

    know it) is universally applicable: This is related to

    the growing extension of Six Sigma applications,

    especially to nonmanufacturing systems. Unfortu-

    nately, this is where the Achilles heel of the commonSix Sigma body of knowledge exhibits itselfeven

    though the training of Six Sigma workers has been a

    frequent subject of discussion; see Hoerl (2001), for

    example. Many run-of-the-mill Black Belts are ignor-

    ant of, for example, queuing theory, methods for

    discrete observations, as well as the nature of ordinal

    scales or correlated observations commonly found in

    service systems. Many of them would take on service

    quality projects with the idea that they have already

    been well prepared by the standard Black Belt

    training program.In principle, it is commendable for a quality pro-

    fessional to try to push the boundaries of Six Sigma

    applications. However, Black Belts using conven-

    tional Six Sigma procedures on service systems could

    end up with results that could not stand up to serious

    scrutiny of a good statistician. The problem could

    be compounded in some situations where

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    recommendations cannot be tested or demonstrated

    because the system in question has already changed

    in characteristics or boundaries over the project

    duration. The tragedy is doubled if the Black Belts

    are not even aware of their own inadequacy or

    limitations and, instead, brandish to management

    or customers the outcomes of half-baked studies.

    Tragedy No. 2

    Obsession with personal attainments: As in many

    other situations, the means could gradually and

    unwittingly become the end. Witness the myriad

    of overprized (or, interestingly in some cases,

    discounted) commercial Black Belt or Green Belt

    training programs that promise certification at the

    end. It seems forgotten that customers benefits,

    and ultimately an organizations business interests,

    were the very motivation for Six Sigma originally.

    This is where some CTQ ought to be defined: is SixSigma meant to benefit an organizations customers

    or a certification project owner?

    Because Six Sigma calls for a hierarchy of profes-

    sionals with a differentiation in levels of expertise

    and responsibilities, designation by different colors

    of belts is useful. However, most advertisements

    today for Six Sigma training and many potential

    takers seem to treat certification to a belt of a certain

    color to be the sole objective; the brutal fact is that

    classes are nowadays offered with individuals

    improved resumes as the unabashed motivation,rather than any customers improved satisfaction or

    any organizations improved bottom line. A practice

    has already been observed that presents BB or

    MBB in a resume as it were a professional degree,

    rather than a role within Six Sigma implementation.

    Tragedy No. 3

    The idea that professional statisticians are no

    longer needed: The main feature that contributes to

    the triumphs of Six Sigma could become an inhibitorof further successes. Many Six Sigma workers, parti-

    cularly freshly minted Black Belts, tend to have the

    idea, albeit an implicit one, that the tools entailed

    in DMAIC are both necessary and sufficient for prob-

    lem solving in the real world. (Tragedy No. 1 thus

    comes to mind again). The certification process, if

    anything, helps foster this misconception because it

    implies that an individual is now fit to handle Six

    Sigma implementation; in reality, all it means is that

    the person has satisfied certain requirements pre-

    scribed by anything from an established organization

    such as ASQ to a fee-grabbing consulting outfit with

    unknown track record.

    Admittedly, some enlightened trainers and their

    learners are aware of the ocean of knowledge and

    tools left untouched during the standard Six Sigmatraining: a well-designed training program would

    use the Pareto principle to emphasize to the trainees

    that what is covered, the vital 20%, is actually not

    always needed, whereas the rest, 80% of other tools

    not in the DMAIC syllabus, are not really all trivial

    and occasionally have to be called forfor that, help

    from professional statisticians would certainly be

    needed. For a fuller discussion, see, for example,

    Hahn and Hoerl (1998).

    Tragedy No. 4

    Irresponsible hype of Six Sigma: Many, especially

    managers, are attracted by easy benefits casually pro-

    mised by Six Sigma promoters, many of whom now-

    adays could be entirely commercially motivated. For

    example, it remains to be proven whether seductive

    statements such as this are scientifically supported:

    As much as $175,000=project and $1 million=yr=

    Black Belt (Harry 1998; interestingly, one may note

    the inconsistency between this promise and the

    statement quoted in the Introduction section ofthis article). It is real, though, that exorbitant

    amounts tend to be quoted by many commercial

    training-cum-certification offerings. Other motiva-

    tors include descriptions, accompanied by data

    and graphs, of enviable rises in stock prices that only

    Six Sigma companies would enjoy, though the fact

    was that during the early 1990s, there was a general

    rise in stock prices in the United States, and practi-

    cally all prices dipped toward the end of 2008,

    Six Sigma or no Six Sigma! There actually was a

    formal study on this subject some time ago (Gohet al. 2003).

    Because the likes of General Electric are invariably

    held up as models for Six Sigma implementation, for

    example, Snee and Hoerl (2003), the practice begs

    the question as to whether only organizations with

    the scale and operations of General Electric would

    benefit from Six Sigma deployment. The upshot is

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    likely to be either (a) smaller organizations believe

    that Six Sigma is not appropriate for them, therefore

    ignoring it; or (b) such organizations are disillu-

    sioned when the fancied extraordinary profits turned

    out to be too good to be true and do not materia-

    lizeafter hefty fees have been paid out and no one

    is answerable for the failure of Six Sigma. If this is

    not a tragedy, one wonders what is.

    Tragedy No. 5

    A bigoted In Data We Trust mentality: Precisely

    because Six Sigma is data driven, sometimes a prac-

    titioner could go overboard with statistical evi-

    dence. Thus, arguments could be advanced in

    favor of a course of action on the strength of some

    p-value generated by some computer software,

    rather than considered opinions based on the experi-

    ence or insights of business leaders. This is parti-

    cularly seen in projects presented for certificationpurposes: one could get the impression that the

    world is ruled by outputs from MINITAB (or such

    like), because once some p-value falls within a cer-

    tain range and the residual checks look passable,

    all would seem to live happily ever after. This is

    not to say, of course, that different attitudes cannot

    be found; a good Six Sigma training program would

    produce professionals who are masters, rather than

    slaves, of statistical tools and software packages.

    In fact, the slave mentality in Six Sigma is exem-

    plified by a practitioners confidence and ability inhandling merely quantitative information. Some

    would make a mountain out of a molehill, using data

    of dubious quality or data from some poorly con-

    structed or responded survey. Not a few would be

    at a loss when encountered with a CTQ that is obvi-

    ously non-numeric. A quote would suffice to

    describe the syndrome and its consequence: To

    many it will always seem better to have measurable

    progress toward the wrong goals than unmeasurable

    progress toward the right ones (Galbraith 1978).

    Apparently the tragedy is not confined to the worldof economists.

    Tragedy No. 6

    Ignorance or neglect of what is important beyond

    DMAIC: Six Sigma as commonly practiced is

    technology-blind and human-ignorant. In particular,

    those wearing Belts of whatever color in Six Sigma

    are expected to conform to the DMAIC straitjacket.

    Quick results and tangible savings are sometimes

    engineered to reflect the success of a project

    especially by those associated with the unguaranteed

    profit promises, as pointed out previously. This is not

    necessarily consistent with customer satisfaction or

    business competitiveness, because suboptimization

    and short-term benefits could be mistaken as funda-mental improvements. Even adherence to, say, the

    3.4 dpmo benchmark is not always logical; it could

    actually go against customer satisfaction, as pointed

    out elsewhere (Conti et al. 2003). A parable on sub-

    optimization can be drawn from a scene in the movie

    Titanic, in which one could certainly applaud the

    exquisite music performed with seamless teamwork

    by the quartet, oblivious of the fact that the ship

    was slowly sinking! (In the same vein, one could

    ask: would it make sense to throw in Six Sigma man-

    power to improve the productivity of a mechanicaltypewriter assembly line?)

    There is one further point that is no less important.

    One expectation of Six Sigma is the development of

    Black Belts into business leaders of the future. Leav-

    ing aside the rigidity of DMAIC (during the

    certification-based training anyway), it is clear that

    nothing in Six Sigma prepares a Black Belt for tech-

    nology changes or breakthroughs, technology substi-

    tution, lifestyle evolution, or cultural differences.

    Furthermore, human attributes that relate to suc-

    cesses are hardly ingredients found in DMAIC:imagination, vision, passion, insight, judgment, crea-

    tivity, curiosity, perseverance, just to name a few

    though this is not to imply that none of these has

    been seen in actual Six Sigma endeavors. The spirit

    of innovation, synergy, breakthrough, and entrepre-

    neurship, for example, could prove to be the prime

    mover of an organization, not the behavior of many

    a Six Sigma certification seeker. So the point is, it

    would be tragic indeed if carefully chosen and

    nurtured Black Blacks fail to realize their potential

    precisely because of what is lacking in Six Sigmaitself.

    CONCLUDING REMARKS

    In the final analysis, Six Sigma offers a quality

    improvement and business excellence roadmap

    inspired by statistical thinking and guided by

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    data-driven techniques. In this respect, useful

    insights can be gained from, for example, Hoerl

    and Snee (2002). The observations highlighted in

    the previous sections arose, as explained before,

    from the authors experience in organizations

    ranging from ones with a handful of employees to

    one of General Electrics large companies, personally

    interacting with nationals of about a dozen countries

    over the years. The discussions here are motivatedby the fact that there are still companies today trying

    to decide, among other things, whether it is wise or

    safe to embrace Six Sigma, so to speak, after being

    exposed to various forms of publicity on the subject.

    This article is basically a two-pronged promotion

    of Six Sigma, namely, a call for reinforcement of its

    merits or triumphs and sounding of caution where

    tragedies could happen. Promoters of Six Sigma

    may well highlight the inherent Six Sigma triumphs

    to the uninitiated, but they owe the quality pro-

    fession a responsibility to minimize the chances oftragedies. In particular, they should avoid the greed

    and fear approach in securing the next Six Sigma

    buyer (yes, for want of a better word); this author,

    for one, considers arguments such as the $XXXsav-

    ings per project inducement and the 99% not good

    enough threat as used by some Six Sigma peddlers

    cheap, nonprofessional, and an intellectual insult to

    business leaders. In fact, Six Sigma does not need

    to depend on hyperbole to gain acceptance; with

    responsible professionals conscious efforts to avert

    potential tragedies, it has all the ingredients to con-tinue to be triumphant for many years to come.

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR

    T. N. Goh holds a B.E. from the University of

    Saskatchewan and a Ph.D. from the University of

    WisconsinMadison. A Fellow of ASQ and Aca-

    demician of the International Academy for Quality

    (IAQ), he is also a former Director of the Office of

    Quality Management and former Dean of Engineer-

    ing at the National University of Singapore. He is acoauthor of the book Six Sigma: Advanced Techni-

    ques for Black Belts and Master Black Belts (Wiley,

    2006) which won the inaugural Masing Book Prize

    of the IAQ. Currently he serves on the editorial

    boards of ten international technical journals.

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