aec service
DESCRIPTION
Masyarakat Ekonomi Asean, khususnya di bidang jasa. Tantangan dan potensi yang ada di Indonesia.TRANSCRIPT
ASEAN Economic Community (MEA)Indonesia’s Perspective: Service Sector Liberalisation
Kiki Verico (LPEM FEUI)
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2http://synthesistblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/k4c4FQ.jpeg
ASEAN Economic Community: Challenges
3http://www.aienetwork.org/images/infographs/may2013/full/how-well-is-asean-doing-in-achieving-the-aec.png
AEC’s Challenges
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Achievements: Trade & Investment Arrangements in ASEAN
ASEAN Industrial Project
(AIP), ASEAN Industrial
Complementary (AIC),
ASEAN Industrial Joint
Ventures (AIJV), ASEAN
Industrial Cooperation
(AICO) and ASEAN
Investment Area (AIA)
5
RegionalClose
(CU/EC)
Anne Krueger, 1970
Bilateral(First mover advantage &
Snowballing effect &
Triggered action)
Open
Regionalism
Jagdish Bhagwati,1995
(RTAs are not effective while
BFTAs are Stumbling Block)
Richard E Baldwin,1997
(BFTAs are Building Block)
Pascal Lamy, 2007
(The ‘pepper in the multilateral ‘curry’)
Ensuring
WTO accession
success
721,181
1i
MTABFTA
• Unilateral
• Multilateral Variance
ASEAN+(A_FTA)
1
3
2
4
65
Sub-RegionalECSC;
IMT, BIMP, SIJORI;
ITRO
Global(MFN)
Source: Verico, Kiki, 2014
Sub-
Regional
Connectivity
H0: AEC will not be achieved throughout regional cooperation
H1: AEC will be achieved throughout A_FTAH0: AEC will not be achieved throughout regional cooperation
H1: AEC will be achieved throughout Sub-Regional
Connectivity
6
Open Regionalism(FTA, FTA+)
Trade Creation > Trade Diversion
B: Intra
Investment Creation
C:Less-
Competitive Local Firms of
Member
o Modelo Graph
History of Anti-AFTA,
ACFTA, spirit of Trade Law
Indonesia
Paradox
Close Regionalism
(CU, EC)
B: Extra
Investment Creation
C:Most-
Competitive Firms of
Non-Member
Success story of CU or EC
Changing strategy from non-members
EU
No Paradox
Trade Diversion > Trade Creation
Dilemma FTA, FTA+
Source: Verico, Kiki, 2014
FDI Inflows net ASEAN by Host Country: 2008-2012 (million US$)
7Source: Own Description using GDF-WB data
-40,000,000,000
-35,000,000,000
-30,000,000,000
-25,000,000,000
-20,000,000,000
-15,000,000,000
-10,000,000,000
-5,000,000,000
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FDI Inflows net, BOP, current US$, 2008-2012
Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar
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Among the top 11-priority products for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2015
Healthcare, Air transport, Tourism,
e-ASEAN, Electronics, Automotive, Textiles, Wood, Fisheries,
Agriculture in general and Rubber
Bali Concord II :
the ASEAN commitment for the comprehensive trade-investment liberalization in
the AEC 2015 will be started on these 11-priority products
(the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, IISD, January 2007)
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Tourism Related SectorForeign Ownership
Malaysia
100% foreign ownership for Hotel, Restaurant but 4-5 Star Only
IndonesiaMaximum 51% foreign ownership
Philippines
40% for Hotel and 100% for Restaurants foreign ownership
ThailandUp to 49% foreign ownership
Brunei100% Foreign ownership
Myanmar 100% Foreign ownership
Singapore
No Restrictions on foreign ownership in hotel
e-ASEAN (Telecommunication)
Foreign Ownership
Malaysiamaximum of 30%
Thailandmaximum of 49%
Singaporefully liberalized
Philippinesmaximum 40%
Indonesia
maximum 49% for fixed line and 65% of mobile line
Cambodia, Laos Myanmar 100% foreign ownerships are allowed
Vietnam49%-65% foreign ownership
Air TransportForeign Ownership
Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand
maximum of 49%
Philippinesmaximum of 40%
Laos100% foreign ownership is allowed
Health CareForeign Ownership
Malaysiamaximum 30%
Philippinesmaximum 40%
Indonesia maximum 67%
Thailandmaximum 49%
Laos, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia
100% foreign ownership is allowed
Bruneimaximum 70%
Myanmarmaximum 80%
Source: Nikomborirak & Jitdumrong, the AEC: A Work in Progress 2013
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1st – 10th Process of Service Liberalisation in AFAS
1. December 1997 (1st Round: Request & Offer)
2. December 1998 (1st Round: Request & Offer)
3. December 2001 (2nd Round: Common Sub-Sector: if minimum 4 countries then multilaterals)
4. September 2004 (3rd Round: Modified Common Sub-Sector)
5. December 2006 (4th Round: Modified Common Sub-Sector)
6. November 2007 (4th Round: Modified Common Sub-Sector)
7. February 2009 (5th Round: Negotiation according to the AEC Blueprint)
8. August 2011 (5th Round: Negotiation according to the AEC Blueprint)
9. 2013 (5th Round: Negotiation according to the AEC Blueprint)
10. 2015 (AEC)
Source: Nikomborirak & Jitdumrong, the AEC: A Work in Progress 2013
MRA on Sector Detail
Engineering 9-Dec-05
Nursing 8-Dec-06
Archtecture, Surveying 19-Dec-07
Medical Practicioners 26 February 2009
Dental Practicioners 27 February 2009
Accountancy Serivices 28 February 2009
License
from Home
Country
ASEAN
Certification
License
from Host
Country
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Mode 1: Lintas Batas; Mode 2: Konsumsi LN; Mode 3: Keberadaan Komersiil; Mode 4: Mobilitas Manusia
Ishido, 2011
Hoekman Index Indonesia: AFAS: 0,35; ACFTA: 0,04; AKFTA: 0,18 dan AANZFTA: 0,16
Hoekman Index AFAS > 0,5: Jasa Telekomunikasi (0,79), Jasa Pendidikan Dasar Menengah (0,63), Jasa
Rumah Sakit (0,63), Jasa Kesehatan Selain RS (0,75), Agen Perjalanan (0,69), Hotel dan Restoran (0,63)
Dee, 2013
Banking Services (max 51%) in fact 99%; Telekomunikasi (max 49%-51%) in fact 65%-95%
CSIS, Komitmen AFAS Paket 8
Jasa Profesional: Hukum (Pengacara Asing Max 20%), Akuntansi/Audit (max ekuitas 51%), Teknik & Arsitek
(max 51%), Jasa Komputer (max 51%), Jasa Telekomunikasi (49% beberapa 70%), Konstruksi (55%),
Pendidikan (49%), Jasa Lingkungan (51%), Jasa Medis (klinik spesialis, rumah sakit, lainnya, dokter hewan,
perawat, jasa sosial), Jasa Transportasi (max 51%)
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FTA IndonesiaAEC
(2015) ACFTA (2002/10) AKFTA (2005/6) AJFTA (2008)AIFTA
(2010/2013/16/18) AANZFTA (2009) IJEPA (2008)
Goods √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Service √ √ √ √ √ √
Investment √ √ √ √ √ √
IPR √ √ √
CompetitionPolicy √ √ √
DisputeSettlement √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Economic &TechnicalCooperation √ √ √ √ √
ROO √ √ √ √ √ √ √
CustomCooperation √ √ √ √ √
Source: CSIS, 2013
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Hasil OlahanSUSENAS, tw 3, 2012, kor Individu
Sector:B5R30
Recode sector 1=1 2=1 3=1 4=1 5=1 6=1 7=2
8=3 9=4 10=5 11=5 12=5 13=5 14=5 15=5 16=5
17=5 18=5 19=6
01. Pertanian tanaman padi &
palawija
02. Hortikultura
03. Perkebunan
04. Perikanan
05. Peternakan
06. Kehutanan & pertanian lainnya
07 Pertambangan & penggalian
08. Industri pengolahan
09. Listrik & gas
10. Konstruksi/bangunan
11. Perdagangan
12. Hotel dan rumah makan
13. Transportasi dan
pergudangan
14. Informasi dan komunikasi
15. Keuangan dan asuransi
16. Jasa pendidikan
17. Jasa kesehatan
18. Jasa kemasyarakatan,
pemerintahan, & perorangan
19. Lainnya
sector Freq. Percent Cum.
1 55,324 42.40 42.40
2 2,532 1.94 44.34
3 11,028 8.45 52.79
4 365 0.28 53.07
5 59,970 45.96 99.03
6 1,266 0.97 100.00
Total 130,485 100.00
Formal : Informal <SMP:>SMP
Agriculture: 12% : 88% 87% : 13%
Industry : 60% : 40% 36% : 64%
Service : 52% : 48% 48% : 52%
Source: Own Calculation using SUSENAS, 2013
Share of Employment in ASEAN:
Agriculture (44,5%), Industry (19%), Services (36,5%)
Peran Sektor Jasa Indonesia (2012)
Indonesia (net importer jasa, defisit 10,3 Miliar US$) pada
Transportasi (8,7 Miliar), Royalti dan Asuransi (1,7 Miliar
dan 1 Miliar)