aeo2019 buildings working group · 10/4/2018 · working group presentation for discussion...

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Buildings Working Group Meeting II

Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency AnalysisOctober 4, 2018 | Washington, DC

ByBuildings Energy Analysis Team

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. DO NOT QUOTE OR

CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Overview• AEO2019 results overview

– Delivered energy by fuel

• Comparison with AEO2018– Model drivers

– Residential and commercial electricity and natural gas

– Distributed generation: solar photovoltaic (PV)

– Commercial district space heating

– Commercial technology update

• Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and technology updates

AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DCOctober 4, 2018 2



AEO2019 Results Overview

3AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DC October 4, 2018



residential sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units

commercial sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units

Electricity continues to be the fastest growing energy source for buildings use in AEO2019

Source: AEO2019 preliminary


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2018-20500.4%

-0.3%

-1.1%-0.8%

electricity

natural gas

petroleum and other liquids

other 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAGR 2018-20500.6%

0.5%

0.0%

0.0%



Comparison with AEO2018




residential fuel prices2018 $/MMBtu

commercial fuel prices2018 $/MMBtu

End-use fuel prices are lower in AEO2019 than AEO2018


$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Natural gas

ElectricityAEO2019

AEO2018

AEO2019AEO2018

Sources: AEO2019 preliminary, AEO2018

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Natural Gas

Electricity

AEO2019

AEO2018

AEO2019

AEO2018



degree days

Heating and cooling degree days include NOAA historical data and short-term forecast, along with 30-year trend through projection period



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CoolingAEO2018

AEO2019

HeatingAEO2018

AEO2019



Commercial floorspace growth decreases slightly from AEO2018 to AEO2019; AEO2019 floorspace is approximately 1% lower in 2050

Sources: AEO2019 (preliminary), AEO2018


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

commercial floorspacebillion square feet



residential purchased electricity consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

residential natural gas consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Lower electricity prices and updated sector and technology characteristics drive changes in residential consumption



4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018



commercial purchased electricity consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

commercial natural gas consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Total commercial purchased electricity and natural gas consumption change only slightly from AEO2018 to AEO2019



4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018



residential PV capacityMW-DC

commercial PV capacityMW-DC

Residential PV projections are lower in AEO2019, based on more state data; commercial projections increase slightly due to lower projected installed costs



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018



commercial purchased electricity for space heatingquadrillion British thermal units

commercial natural gas for space heatingquadrillion British thermal units

After commercial district services update, more delivered natural gas and less electricity are consumed for space and water heating



0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



Commercial technology characteristics for AEO2019 were updated based on 2018 report• Technology characteristics were updated for commercial space heating,

space cooling, water heating, and cooking appliances.– Estimated air-source heat pump costs now incorporate the effects of 2018 and 2023

standards. They also now include cost declines over time in line with NREL projections.

– Increased efficiency of “typical efficiency” natural gas water heater and lower cost of “high efficiency” natural gas water heater. Both trends cause natural gas water heating consumption to rise more slowly over the projection period.

– New data on commercial cooking technologies leads to increased consumption in cooking, particularly for electricity.

– Report can be found on the web at https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

AEO2019 Buildings Working Group | Washington, DCOctober 4, 2018 13

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/



Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and technology updates




total householdsmillions

2015 RECS shows more households in 2015 than had been projected in AEO2018 based on prior 2009 RECS and housing starts



110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018



delivered space heating energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

delivered space cooling energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Space heating and space cooling



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



delivered water heating energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

delivered cooking energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Water heating/ cooking



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



delivered refrigeration energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

delivered freezer energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Refrigeration/ freezing



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



delivered clothes washer energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

delivered clothes dryer energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Clothes washers represent expanded modeling to include both top- and front-loading washer configurations



0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



delivered dishwasher energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Dishwashers



0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



delivered lighting energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

Definition of General Service Lighting expanded to cover more technology types such as reflector lamps



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2018

AEO2019



For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

State Energy Data System | http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/steo

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

aeo2019 buildings working group · 10/4/2018 · working group presentation for discussion...

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