aer 818 lm_3_15_s(2)

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1/23/2015 AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon 1 Project Requirements Work in teams of 4 to 6 students to develop a robotic riveting facility in a company for manufacturing leading edges of an aircraft with the goal of increasing productivity. Your company is a supplier of leading edges to tier I aircraft manufacturers. In addition to the class presentation, each team is required to submit, in week 12, a final typed report containing the following sections: 1. Introduction: Analysis of the market for a specific region; aircraft demand in the region by category; ten-year outlook for leading edges. 2. Forecast the number of leading edges needed (Presentation 1, Jan 30): Use compound equation and region growth rate to forecast the leading edges needed each year for the next ten years. 3. Project Management (Presentation 2, Feb 13): Statement of work, work breakdown structure, project schedule (Gantt chart), milestones, budget, Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT or CPM) analysis, tendering robotic riveter cell. 4. Capacity Planning – Number of Robots (Presentation 3, Mar 6): Manual vs. robotic riveting, number of rivets, riveting rate, production rate increase, number of robots needed to meet production increase, capital cost, payback plan, number of years allowed for ramp up. 5. Layout Design (Presentation 4, Mar 20): Assembly process, operation process chart (assembly tree), assembly process development, flow process chart, layout design of robotic cell, alternative cell design to show improvement. 6. Conclusion and Recommendations (Final presentation, March 27). 7. References.

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Page 1: AER 818 LM_3_15_s(2)

1/23/2015 AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon 1

Project RequirementsWork in teams of 4 to 6 students to develop a robotic riveting facility in a company for manufacturing leading edges of an aircraft with the goal of increasing productivity. Your company is a supplier of leading edges to tier I aircraft manufacturers. In addition to the class presentation, each team is required to submit, in week 12, a final typed report containing the following sections:1. Introduction: Analysis of the market for a specific region; aircraft demand in the

region by category; ten-year outlook for leading edges.2. Forecast the number of leading edges needed (Presentation 1, Jan 30): Use

compound equation and region growth rate to forecast the leading edges needed each year for the next ten years.

3. Project Management (Presentation 2, Feb 13): Statement of work, work breakdown structure, project schedule (Gantt chart), milestones, budget, Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT or CPM) analysis, tendering robotic riveter cell.

4. Capacity Planning – Number of Robots (Presentation 3, Mar 6): Manual vs. robotic riveting, number of rivets, riveting rate, production rate increase, number of robots needed to meet production increase, capital cost, payback plan, number of years allowed for ramp up.

5. Layout Design (Presentation 4, Mar 20): Assembly process, operation process chart (assembly tree), assembly process development, flow process chart, layout design of robotic cell, alternative cell design to show improvement.

6. Conclusion and Recommendations (Final presentation, March 27).7. References.

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Project /Lab Groups

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Each project group will have 10 minutes to present results. Note: Total project = 20% of course grade; each presentation will worth 5% of the 20%.

Group Student Name Group Student Name Group Student Name

A

Vibhor ChabraLucy Davidson Sabrina GomezGianni MonardoSukhvir Dhaliwal

Adrian Strupp

E

Shivang PatelIlion Iljazi

Richard SukhdeoZiad El Shaboury

Kody BaumVito Pansera

I

Brent MillerChris Singh

Romeo Isaacs Yit Teng Seow

Amer Choudhury

B

Ajandan BagawanCheng Lian

Muhammad Iqbal Santiago Galvis F

Constantin NicolincoDerek Stanley 

Powers Alexander YamichAlex BelliniPavlo Kusov

Muhamudar Kalam

J

GajarupanSaravanapavananthan

Saptarshi DattaQuazi Faisal

Santhosh InigoFizra Arif

Huner Sharma

C

Mehmet TekinAhmad KalajiZaid Morad

Kenny KarthigesuArsalan SiddiquiNinab Alwarda

G

Jasper Liu                Harry Ming Zhang  Michael Chow         Steven Siu                Sam Tam      

K

D

Zehan SadiqDeni DzojaJacob John James AhnJay Shah 

H

Deepinderpal Singh UjialBizhan Feda

Hariram SujanthanMacquin Brown 

Marilyn Shirley Louis

L

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Project Presentations

1. Vision, mission, strategy, business plan (forecast: # of leading edges for your selected regions and types of aircraft – SWOT analysis Presentation 1.

2. Project management, objectives, SOW, WBS, preliminary implementation plan (Gantt Chart)), PERT or CPM, resources, budget Presentation 2.

3. Capacity planning, robotic cell design (planning) Presentation 3.For given constraints, determine:Capital + maintenance budget (% of operating) (one time) Operating (labor cost using the current year)Workers (current all manual, semi-automated, or fully automated - training)Determine # of robots and # of staff to keep up with the production rate increase (using the same growth rate) for the next 10 years. (payout plan break even)

4. System layout design (robot, jig, assembly process, operation process chart (assembly tree), flow process chart, plant layout design of robotic cell, alternative cell design to show improvement.) Presentation 4.

5. Final presentation (report: company information, business plan, capacity planning, layout design, final implementation plan (Gantt Chart)), conclusion and recommendation.

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AER 818: Manufacturing ManagementLM_3: Project Management

• Project Management Overview– Why project managers are needed?– Common project structures– Essential features of project management

• Statement of Work and Work Breakdown Structures• Project Management Techniques

– Gantt chart– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and

Critical Path Method (CPM)

• Managing Resources and Tracking Progress

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Why Project Managers are Needed?• Most organizations spend their time putting out fires and pursuing projects

aimed at catching up to their competitors – leading to too many projects going at once and all too often seriously over commit development resources.

• Completing projects successfully on time and within budget requires project managers to exercise careful control of critical resources; the key resource is often the time of employees.

• Project managers (PM) are not only skilled at the technical aspects, just as important, they must possess the people skills related to motivation, conflicts resolution, negotiation, and salesmanship.

• Project work is team work and leading and/or managing a project involves leading a team; therefore it is vital for successful project managers to possess leadership skills.

• In summary, project managers perform the management functions in planning, scheduling, and controlling resources (people, equipment, material) to meet technical, cost and time constraints of projects.

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Common Project StructuresFunctional Projects• A critical mass of functional-area

experts creates synergistic solutions to different projects’ problems.

• Problems not related to functional area get shortchanged leading poor response to certain clients.

Matrix Projects• Each project uses people and facility

from different functional areas as decided by PM who has to negotiate with functional area managers for use of resources.

• Duplication of resources is minimized; employees have better job security since they have a functional “home”.

• Two bosses, PM needs to have strong negotiation skills to get resources from functional area managers.

From: Operations Management for Competitive Advantage, 11th Edition, Chase, Jacobs & Aquilano, 2006

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Functions of Project ManagersPlanning – setting objectives, defining the project, creating work breakdown structures (WBS), determining resources, organizing team.Scheduling – sequencing activities, identifying precedence relationships, determining critical activities, determining activity times and costs, estimating material and worker requirements during the entire project.Controlling – monitoring resources, costs, quality, and budgets, revising plans and shifts resources to meet time and cost demands.

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Project Management Essentials

From: Operations Management, 8th Edition, Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2007.

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Statement of Work (SOW)• A project begins with a statement of work that

contains the objectives, a brief statement of the work to be performed, and schedule specifying the start and end dates.

• SOW also often contains performance measures in terms of budget and completion steps (milestones), and the deliverables to be supplied.

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Work Breakdown Structures (WBS)• A project has a work breakdown structure (WBS) that

contains the hierarchy of tasks, subtasks, and work packages.• Completion of one group of work packages results in the

completion of a subtask, completion of one group of subtasks results in the completion of a task, and completion of all tasks results in the completion of project.

• Activity is used within WBS to indicate a piece of work that consumes time.

• Activity can also mean no work, e.g., waiting for the paint that was applied in the previous activity to dry before proceeding to the next activity.

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Work Breakdown Structures

• The number of hierarchy levels within WBS is not fixed; it may vary depends on the complexity of the project.

• There is not a single correct WBS for any project; two different project teams may develop two different WBS for the same project.

• Project Management is often referred to as an art rather than a science, since there are so many different ways that a project can be approached.

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WBS for Projects

Program

Project 1 Project 2

Task 1.1

Subtask 1.1.1

Work Package 1.1.1.1

Level

1

2

3

4

Task 1.2

Subtask 1.1.2

Work Package 1.1.1.2

From: Operations Management, 8th Edition, Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2007.

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Project Scheduling: Gantt Charts

• The Gantt chart is named after Henry L. Gantt who developed this type of bar charts for controlling shipbuilding projects in World War I.

• The Gantt chart is used to show the duration (amount of time required), start dates and end dates, and the sequence of performance for the tasks, subtasks, and activities (work packages) in a project.

From: http://demo2.ilog.com:8080/WebEditor.aspx

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Project Management Techniques• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical

Path Method (CPM) were both developed in 1950s to help managers plan, schedule and control large projects.

• CPM was developed in 1957 by Kelly and Walker for building and scheduling maintenance of chemical processing plants at duPont based on reasonably accurate time estimate for activities.

• PERT was developed in 1958 by Booz, Allen and Hamilton for the U.S. Navy’s Polaris missile project in handling uncertain activity time estimates.

• PERT and CPM share many similar features; the main difference is that PERT employs three time estimates for each activity while CPM uses only one time factor per activity since it assumes that the activity times are known with certainty.

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Framework of PERT and CPM

• PERT and CPM both follow six basic steps:1. Define the project SOW and prepare the WBS.2. Develop the relationships among the activities. Decide which activities

must precede and which must follow others.3. Draw the network formed by connecting all activities.4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity.5. Compute the longest time path through the network; this longest time

path is called the critical path.6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control project.

• Finding the critical path is a major part of controlling the project since if any one of the activities on the critical path is delayed, the entire project is delayed.

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CPM with a Single Time Estimate

• Statement of Work: Identify a new type of airplane for manufacturing consideration.

• Activities identified in the WBS: – A(2) – Forecasting;

– B(4) – Analyzing forecast data;

– C(2) – SWOT analysis; and

– D(2) – making team decision on the recommendation of the new type of airplane for manufacturing based on forecast data and SWOT analysis results.

• Note: the number in parenthesis shown adjacent to the activity name indicates the duration of the activity in months.

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Creation of Activity Network

• Network: Create sequences of activities based on activity predecessors: B and C cannot start before A is completed; and D cannot start before B and C are completed.

A(2)

B(4)

C(2)

D(2)

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CPM with a Single Time Estimate – Cont’d

• Critical Path: Consider the sequences of activities, (A-B-D) and (A-C-D), and sum the activity times. In this case A-B-D is the critical path since the activity time (8 months) is the longest.

• Schedule Options: – Two basic options: early start / early finish (start

from the beginning and work towards the end) and late start / late finish (start from the end and work towards the beginning).

– Calculate 4 points in time for each activity.

– Slack time = Late start time – Early start time

Activity

EarlyStart

LateStart

EarlyFinish

LateFinish

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Network Creation for Activities A, B, C & D• Forward calculation from A to

D to obtain early-start / early-finish time; the results are shown on the upper right- and left-hand corners of the activity name.

• Backward calculation from D to A to obtain late-start / late-finish time; the results are shown on the lower right- and left-hand corners of the activity name.

A(2)

B(4)

C(2)

D(2)

0 2

0 2

2 6

2 4

6 8

86

64

62

A-B-D is the critical path: no slack time.C has a 2-month slack time.

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LM_3 Exercise #1: Very-Light Jet (VLJ) Development• Recognizing Diamond Aircraft Industries and Eclipse Aviation have developed

VLJ, Bombardier would like to produce its own prototype to break into this lucrative market (hypothetical).

• Project manager has decided the following main tasks (or activities);A. Design, material and engine selection, procurement, advanced manufacturing process

development, assembly tooling, certification requirements: 42 weeksB. Manufacture prototype I using conventional method: 10 weeks (A)C. Manufacture prototype II using advanced method: 14 weeks (A)D. Test prototype I and develop testing procedure for prototype II: 4 weeks (B)E. Write a report for advanced manufacturing method and write a report for prototype II

test procedure; testing of prototype II does not require completion of test procedure report: 10 weeks (C & D)

F. Test prototype II; write comparison test report for prototypes I & II: 16 weeks (C & D)G. Write final report and recommendation: 4 weeks (E & F)

• Project manager is confident with the activity times based on Bombardier’s extensive experience on airplane development.

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LM_3 Exercise #1: CPM for VLJ Development

Do the following:

1. Develop the project task sequence by identify the immediate predecessors for the tasks A to G.

2. Draw the network based on the precedence relationships.

3. Identify all the project paths.

4. Determine the critical path(s).

5. Calculate the early-start/early-finish and late-start/late-finish schedules.

6. Determine the length of the project.

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PERT with 3 Time Estimates• If a single estimate of time required to complete an activity is not

reliable, the best procedure is to use three time estimates.• The three time estimates not only allow the activity time to be

estimated, but also allow an probability estimate of the completion time for the entire network (project) to be determined.

• The three time estimates are: a = optimistic time, i.e., time an activity will take if everything goes as planned, only a 1% chance that the activity time < a; m = best guess estimate of the time required, i.e., most realistic estimate of time for complete the activity; and b = pessimistic time, i.e., time an activity will take under very unfavorable conditions, only a 1% chance that the activity time > b.

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PERT Analysis: Expected Time & Variance• The expected time (ET) for an activity completion is

estimated based on the beta statistical distribution:

ET = (a + 4m + b) / 6

• Using the ET for each activity to calculate the critical path.

• Variance, σ2 ,for each ET is calculated by:

σ2 = [(b – a) /6]2

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Beta Distribution with 3 Time Estimates

From: Operations Management, 8th Edition, Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2007.

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Probability Estimate of Project End Date• The probability of completing the project on a given date is

determined based on the application of standard normal distribution.

• The assumption is activity times are independent random variables that follow a beta statistical distribution; based on the Central Limit Theorem, the sum of independent random variables approaches a normal distribution.

• In a PERT analysis, the ETs for all the activities are assumed to be independent random variables; and the sum of all the ETs for the critical path activities, TE , approaches a normal distribution; note that TE = the expected time for project completion.

• Sum of the variances of activity times along the critical path is the variance of the expected time to complete the path or project.

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Probability Estimate of Project End Date – Cont’d• The probability of completion of the project by a certain date can be estimated

based on the Z transformation formula for normal distribution:

• The value of Z is the number of standard deviations, defined as the ratio of the deviation of the desired project completion time, D, from the expected project completion time, TE , and the square root of the sum of variances of activity times along critical path.

• The probability of meeting the desired project completion time is determined using the value of Z and a table showing the areas of the cumulative normal distribution found in statistics textbooks.

• TE is the sum of expected times for the critical path activities.

2cp

ETDZσ∑−

=2cpσ∑

Where: D = Desired project completion timeTE = Expected project completion time

= Square root of sum of variances of activity times along critical path

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Probability of Project Completion

Chart shows the Z value for 99% probability of project completionFrom: Operations Management, 8th Edition, Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2007.

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Cumulative Areas for the Normal Distribution

• To find the area under the normal curve, use the table to the left.

• Input Z, the number of standard deviations to the right of the mean.

• Read the area under the normal curve directly from the table, e.g., for Z = 1.55 to the right of the mean, total area is 0.93943.

From: Operations Management, 8th Edition, Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2007.

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Managing Resources• In addition to scheduling each activity (or task), resources

must be allocated (people, equipment, etc.).• Over-allocations (situations where allocations exceed company

resources) are common problems and must be corrected.• To resolve over-allocation problems, resources can be added

(subcontracting, overtime, double shift, temporary workers, etc.) or re-scheduling (e.g., moving a task within its slack time can free up resources without affecting schedule).

• Mid- to high-level project management information systems (PMIS) software can resolve over-allocations through a “leveling” feature using certain specified rules such as low-priority tasks should be delayed until higher priority tasks are completed or revising the project end date.

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Tracking Progress• Actual progress will differ from the original, or baseline, planned progress,

once the project is underway.• To ensure successful completion of project (on time and within budget),

tracking the progress and updating the project plan are necessary.• It is normal practice to use PMIS software for progress tracking in real world

projects (extremely difficult, impossible or ineffective for manual tracking):– Software can hold several different baseline plans and monthly progress

snapshots can be provided for comparisons.– Tracking Gantt chart that superimposes the current schedule onto a baseline plan

so deviations are easily highlighted can be supplied.– Spreadsheet or graph views of different tracking focuses such as the actual usage

of resources against planned usage of resources, deviations between planned start/finish and newly re-scheduled start/finish dates, and budgeted costs against actual costs, can be provided for project revising if required.

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LM_3 Exercise #2: PERT for VLJ Development• Recognizing upcoming shift in resources to clear back log in Global Express,

Bombardier decided to change the approach from CPM to PERT:• Project manager has decided the following 3 time estimates (a, m and b) for

Tasks (activities) A to G in weeks:A. Design, material and engine selection, procurement, advanced manufacturing process

development, assembly tooling, certification requirements : a = 20, m = 44, b = 56.B. Manufacture prototype I using conventional method: a = 8, m = 8, b = 20.C. Manufacture prototype II using advanced method: a = 8, m = 12, b = 28.D. Test prototype I and develop testing procedure for prototype II: a = 2, m = 4, b = 6.E. Write a report for advanced manufacturing method and a report for prototype II test

procedure; testing of prototype II does not require completion of test procedure report: a= 2, m = 10, b =18.

F. Test prototype II; write comparison test report for prototypes I & II: a = 14, m = 16, b=18.

G. Write final report and recommendation : a = 4, m = 4, b = 4.

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LM_3 Exercise #2: PERT for VLJ DevelopmentDo the following:

1. Develop the project task sequence by identify the immediate predecessors for the tasks A to G.

2. Draw the network based on the precedence relationships.

3. Identify all the project paths.

4. Determine the critical path(s).

5. Calculate the early-start /early-finish and late-start /late-finish schedules based on expected times for activities.

6. Determine the length of the project based on expected times.

7. Determine the probability of completing the project in 78 weeks.

8. Determine the number of weeks for completing the project with 99% probability.

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Normal Distribution Table

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