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Aer Lingus US roadshow June 2014

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Page 1: Aer Lingus US roadshowcorporate.aerlingus.com/media/.../pdfs/AerLingus_US_roadshow.pdf · Aer Lingus US roadshow ... discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, ... Aer Lingus

Aer Lingus US roadshow June 2014

Page 2: Aer Lingus US roadshowcorporate.aerlingus.com/media/.../pdfs/AerLingus_US_roadshow.pdf · Aer Lingus US roadshow ... discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, ... Aer Lingus

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Disclaimer | Forward looking information

Certain information included in these statements is forward-looking and involves risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward looking statements.

Forward looking statements include, without limitation, projections relating to results of operations and financial conditions and the Company's plans and objectives for future operations, including, without limitation, discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, expected future revenues, financing plans and expected expenditures and divestments. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information known to the Company on the date of this report. Due to such uncertainties and risks, you should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements, which speak only as at the date of this report. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law or by any appropriate regulatory authority.

It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could cause the Company's forward looking statements to be incorrect or that could otherwise have a material adverse effect on the future operations or results of an airline operating in the global economy. Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact the Company’s expected results are the fuel costs, competition from new and existing carriers, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of governments and regulatory authorities, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, industrial relations, the economic environment of the airline industry and the general economic environment in the markets to which the Company operates.

Page 3: Aer Lingus US roadshowcorporate.aerlingus.com/media/.../pdfs/AerLingus_US_roadshow.pdf · Aer Lingus US roadshow ... discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, ... Aer Lingus

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Investment case

• Profitable and financially strong airline

• Aer Lingus has positioned itself over the past number of years to benefit from recovery in, and inbound traffic, from its key North American and European markets

• Irish economic recovery is expected to continue; Aer Lingus is well positioned to benefit from positive Irish economic trends

• Commitment to an annual dividend policy generates attractive yield for investors

• Aer Lingus has achieved long haul growth in 2013 which was ahead of market trends; further above market growth is being delivered in 2014

• Possible future share register liquidity events relating to Ryanair and Irish Government shareholdings

• Pension issue is the last legacy issue. Resolution of this issue will facilitate normalisation of the Aer Lingus balance sheet and enable an above average return on equity for our shareholders

Page 4: Aer Lingus US roadshowcorporate.aerlingus.com/media/.../pdfs/AerLingus_US_roadshow.pdf · Aer Lingus US roadshow ... discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, ... Aer Lingus

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Aer Lingus- At a glance

• Established in 1936; floated on the London and Irish stock exchanges in 2006

• Primary mission is to connect Ireland with the world

• Transformational turnaround since 2009

• Serves approx. 90 routes with additional 20 routes served by franchise operations and circa 77 additional destinations via codeshare agreements

• Over 10.6 million passengers carried in 2013 through mainline and franchise operations

• Significant long haul growth in 2014 through damp leases of three Boeing 757 aircraft operating on the North Atlantic and services to new destinations (Toronto and San Francisco)

• Consistent profitability since 2010 with upper tier operating margin among European peers

• Strong balance sheet with €0.9 billion of gross cash at 31 December 2013

• Passenger fare revenue supplemented by strong retail revenue streams, cargo and contract flying operations

• Fleet of 50 consists of 47 Airbus and three Boeing 757s

• Young fleet facilitates a competitive unit cost position; with average age of fleet of 8.2 years at 31 December 2013

• Nine A350 aircraft on order with Airbus with deliveries likely over the period 2018 to 2020

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Aer Lingus provides exposure to recovering Irish economy

• Aer Lingus’ successful trading performance since 2009 has been driven by serving inbound demand from North American and European markets

• Irish economy and passenger numbers have not yet recovered to the same extent as other European markets

• For example, Frankfurt Airport passenger numbers are up 13.9% from trough in 2009. This compares to flat Dublin passenger trends between 2009 and 2013

• Irish economic recovery has under-performed UK and US but is forecast to grow faster than Eurozone average in 2014 and thereafter

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 P FY15 P FY19 P

US Euro area Ireland UK

Source 1: www.fraport.com and www.daa.ie Source 2: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2014

Passenger numbers (millions) (1)

Actual and Forecast GDP (% real change) (2)

23.5

20.2 18.4 18.7 19.1 20.2

53.4 50.9 53.0

56.4 57.5 58.0

15.018.021.024.027.030.033.036.039.042.045.048.051.054.057.060.0

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Dublin airport passenger numbers Frankfurt airport passenger numbers

-14%

-5% +4% +6% +2% +1%

-9% +2% +2% +6%

2008 passenger level

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89%

11%

Short haul Long haul

67%

33%

Short haul Long haul

• 80/20 split of leisure and “visiting friends and relatives”/business traffic through Dublin Airport

• “Visiting friends and relatives” has remained relatively stable and unaffected by economic events over time

• Aer Lingus holds 43% of market share of all passenger traffic at the three largest Irish airports

Market overview

25%

17%

21% 20% 17%

20% 21% 22% 23%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

VFR Mainholiday

Additionalholiday

Business Other

Dublin Airport Aer Lingus

Purpose of journey

Source: Aer Lingus 2013 annual report

FY13 Passenger profile

Passenger numbers

Notes: VFR is an abbreviation for “Visiting Friends & Relatives” Source: Aer Lingus 2013 annual report

44%

14%

37%

5%

Great Britain US & Canada

Other Europe Other locations

Source of inbound visitors

Source: CSO Overseas Travel (April 2014)

Fare revenue

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Delta United Airlines Lufthansa jetBlue Vueling Allegiant Ryanair Southwest

Attractive business model

7

HIGH

LOW

Traditional LCC

A seat with very basic

and limited paid add-

ons

Secondary airports

Charge to check-in

No seat recline No window blinds No coat hooks No literature pockets Low seat pitch

Paid food and drinks with limited choice

No jetways

No transfers

Credit card based reward programme

Central airports with selected multi channel distribution

Lounge access for FFP

FlexiFares

Good seat comfort, recline and amenities

Pre-order food/ all-day breakfast & good crew engagement

Occasional use of jetways

Limited transfer connectivity

FFP with few

partners

Aer Lingus Strong core

product attributes

with benefit-driven paid

options

Enhanced modular offering for customers

SER

VIC

E LE

VEL

RA

TIN

G

Primary airports with full multi channel distribution

More ways to check-in and premium desks

Higher quality lounges

Carry children unaccompanied

Greater seat pitch than Hybrid or LCC’s

Free food and beverages

Comp drinks

Higher crew: pax ratio

Consistent use of jetways

Full transfer connectivity

Full alliance driven FFP with many partners

Leveraged use of customer database and customer contact strategy

Full Service Multiple product

attributes and services

that are all-inclusive

• Aer Lingus has positioned itself as a “value carrier” between the pure “low fares” and higher cost full service models, enabling it to compete efficiently in key markets

• Neutral/ unaligned status allows for a broad range of alliances/ partnerships spanning the airline alliances to our mutual benefit Examples

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Short haul overview

Commercial strategy of carefully managing capacity deployment and focusing on maximising yield per seat is delivering positive results

• Extensive short haul network with more than 100 city pairs

• Central airport offering appeals to both business and leisure markets

• Convenient schedules

-60% daily

-50% multiple daily

• Strong competition with noticeable overlap from Ryanair, AF KLM, Lufthansa and BA

• Short haul capacity deployment has remained steady in recent years and focus has instead been on revenue maximisation through load factor and fare yields.

Passengers carried

('000s) FY12 FY13

Mainline 8,674 8,527

Aer Lingus regional 1,010 1,112

Total 9,684 9,639

Source: 2013 preliminary results announcement

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Commercial strategy of carefully managing capacity deployment and focusing on maximising yield per seat is delivering positive results

• Network reach powered by:

- Schedule connectivity

- Partnerships

- US preclearance at Dublin and

Shannon

• Six gateways served (New York,

Boston, Chicago, Orlando, San

Francisco and Toronto)

• Partnerships and connectivity

continuing to play key role in

growing passenger volume

• 77 onward connections from New

York (JFK), Boston, Chicago and

Toronto

• Long haul performance in FY13

was positive, supported by a

strong underlying demand with a

12.2% increase in passengers

carried YOY (979 in FY12 to 1,098

in FY13)

Long haul overview

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2014 Transatlantic Expansion

2014 Aer Lingus long haul Increase in ASKs Increase in Seats

Dublin to San Francisco (SFO) 13% 8%

Dublin to Toronto (YYZ) 6% 7%

Other – SNN to JFK/BOS 5% 5%

Total expansion (versus 2013) 24% 20%

Well positioned for continued growth in 2014 with introduction of three B757s. Expansion is in line with expectations with no significant adverse competitor reaction to additional Aer Lingus long haul capacity

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60.5

65.8

77.4

18.5%

23.0%

27.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY11 FY12 FY13

Interline revenue (€'m)

Long passenger traffic connected from/ to our partner airlines (%)

789

832

882

700

750

800

850

900

FY11 FY12 FY13

Partnerships deliver cost effective network extension

A selection of our partner airlines

+6.0%

+5.4%

• Aer Lingus benefits from open network architecture with a range of airline partners serving all continents

• Following the change in business model, long haul passenger traffic connections from and to our partner airlines increased from 19% in FY11 to 27% in FY13

• Approximately 48% of total long haul passengers were connecting passengers in FY13 (including Aer Lingus Regional franchise operators)

Interline revenue (€’m) (1)

Interline passengers (‘000) (1)

Note 1: Excludes Aer Lingus Regional Source: Aer Lingus 2013/2012 annual report

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Aer Lingus is a key jetBlue partner serving the Boston gateway

• 40% growth in Aer Lingus passenger traffic through Boston since 2010

• Aer Lingus passengers benefit from extensive jetBlue network from Boston

• jetBlue’s strategy is to continue to grow the Boston market. At the end of 2013 jetBlue flew to 49 destinations from Boston and increased its Boston seat share % from 15% in 2009 to over 30% in 2013

• Aer Lingus growth to jetBlue’s Boston gateway demonstrates value of partnership to both sides

Aer Lingus passenger traffic into Boston from Ireland Jet Blue route network out of Boston

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

40%

Aer Lingus traffic

Source: jetBlue 2013 Analyst day presentation and jetBlue 2013 10K

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Transformational turnaround since 2009

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1,050.0

1,100.0

1,150.0

1,200.0

1,250.0

1,300.0

1,350.0

1,400.0

1,450.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Revenue EBITDAR margin % Staff costs % revenue

74.5% 76.1% 75.6%

77.7% 78.4%

72.0%

74.0%

76.0%

78.0%

80.0%

82.0%

84.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Short haul Long haul Overall

• Transition to value carrier business model and restoration of profitability

• Margin improvement driven by increased yields, reduced costs and stronger volumes

• Launch of Greenfield cost reduction programme in 2009 resulted in annual savings of €104.2 million by December 2012

Improved trading performance and staff costs reduction

Steady load factor improvement (%)

Improved average revenue per seat (€)

Source: Aer Lingus Annual Reports 2009-2013

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Short haul Long haul Total avg fare revenue per seat

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Next steps: “CORE” programme

“CORE” is a 2 year programme which commenced in February 2014, with the aim of continuous focus on delivering efficiency and cost savings across the organisation to protect competitiveness and grow margin

“CORE” Cost Optimisation and Revenue Excellence

Cost & business

optimisation

Revenue excellence

Our people

•Simplify & improve our core airline processes for the benefit of our customers

•Transform selected support functions into profit centres

•Further headcount reductions and increased productivity by end of 2015

•Total cost reduction target of €30 million by end of 2015

Further develop our merchandising & retail offers

•Delivering the “customer journey of the future” As part of this initiative, we will:

•Re-launch our website with a re-designed booking portal

•Improve our mobile app

•Have all our transatlantic flights from Dublin pre-cleared for the Summer schedule

•Introduce fully lie-flat seats on our long haul flights by Q1 2015

•Move to the new Queen’s terminal at London Heathrow in Summer 2014

•Replace our current passenger reservation system with state of the art technology

•Further improvements in staff engagement, training, flexibility and productivity

•Normalise and improve industrial relations environment

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Strong financial performance • EBITDAR improvement from €57.6 million in FY09

to €189.2 million in FY13 driven by:

– Positive and steady revenue growth

– Higher fuel and airport charges were offset by significant cost savings due to Greenfield initiatives

• 2013 operating result was adversely impacted by exceptionally fine weather in Summer 2013 in addition to significant price discounting in Northern European markets in the second half of 2013

• Focus going forward on achieving continued cost savings and greater efficiency with the “CORE” programme with €30 million annual savings to be achieved by the end of 2015

• Shareholder equity improvement from €704.5 million in 2009 to €852.8 million in 2013 driven by an improvement in retained earnings over this period

• Gross debt comprises aircraft lease financing and is secured by the aircraft that it finances (flight equipment NBV of €662.9 million at December 2013 of which €465.6 million were leased assets)

Source: Aer Lingus Annual Reports 2009-2013 Note 1: Excludes slot and brand value as these intangible assets are not recognised on the Aer Lingus balance sheet Note 2: Free cash flow is defined as operating cash flow (after exceptional items) less net capex and net interest paid

Profit and loss €'m FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Revenue 1,205.7 1,215.6 1,288.3 1,393.3 1,425.1

YOY growth % n/a 0.8% 6.0% 8.2% 2.3%

Total costs (1,148.1) (1,024.0) (1,115.5) (1,202.0) (1,235.9)

EBITDAR 57.6 191.6 172.8 191.3 189.2

EBITDAR margin % 4.8% 15.8% 13.4% 13.7% 13.3%

EBIT before exceptional (80.9) 52.6 49.1 69.1 61.1

EBIT margin % (6.7%) 4.3% 3.8% 5.0% 4.3%

EPS (Basic & diluted) (24.6) 8.1 13.4 6.4 6.4

Selected Balance sheet and Cash flow elements €'m FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Total assets (1) 1,730.5 1,812.9 1,827.6 1,782.0 1,746.0

Gross cash 828.5 885.0 894.8 908.5 897.4

Gross debt 492.6 535.2 577.2 531.6 477.6

Net cash 335.8 349.8 317.5 376.9 419.8

Total net assets 704.5 802.4 836.7 834.7 852.8

Free cash flow (2) (270.7) 66.4 63.7 75.2 76.3

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0.02

0.04 0.04 0.05

0.05 0.06 0.06

0.09 0.09

- 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10

10.3 9.3

8.1 7.9 7.6 7.2 5.9 5.4

3.6 3.5 2.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12• Following its strategic re-positioning, Aer Lingus offers high quality customer service on a sustainably profitable basis

• Despite the strong financial performance, Aer Lingus is trading at a discount to the sector

Strong financial performance relative to peers

Mean: 7.2

Mean:0.05 EBITDAR mean: 11.6%

EBIT mean: 3.0%

EV/ EBITDAR- 2013e (2)

EBITDAR and EBIT margin 2013 (1)

Note 1: Source: Latest available annual report ending in 2013 for all apart from Ryanair based on preliminary March 2014 results Note 2: HSBC global research (Transport Airlines) February 2014

Cost per ASK (excl fuel) € (1)

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

EBITDAR EBIT

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Gross cash of €0.9 billion at 31 December 2013

No corporate level debt. All debt relates to finance leases and is secured on underlying aircraft assets

Free cash flow of €76.3 million for 2013 with no significant near term CAPEX requirements.

Value of net assets per share of €1.60 versus share price of €1.28 as at 31 December 2013

Asset strength on and off balance sheet

Fundamentally strong business with valuable asset base on and off balance sheet

Iconic brand with over 75 years of brand equity

Recognised as the national airline of Ireland. Irish diaspora comprises 70 million globally

Strong emphasis on customer service through careful brand management – “Great fare, great fare”

No value recognised for our brand on the balance sheet

Valuable brand Valuable slot portfolio

Aer Lingus is the fourth largest holder of slots at London Heathrow and is due to move to Terminal 2 in June 2014 where it will be one of the largest operators

Difficult to replicate portfolio in other airports such as Dublin, Frankfurt and New York JFK

No value attributable to slot

portfolio on balance sheet

Gross cash and debt

At 31 Dec 2013 (€’millions)

897.4

(477.6)

419.8

(1000.0)

(500.0)

-

500.0

1,000.0

Gross cash Gross debt Net cash

Gross cash Gross debt Net cash

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Challenges and opportunities

Pension

Share register

• Cyclical industry correlated to trends in underlying economic activity

• Domestic demand in Ireland is currently recovering

• Competitive pressure throughout economy

• Growth highly export focused

• Highly complex funding issues with pension schemes •On-going negotiations with labour representatives • Deficit not company responsibility • Engagement with government sponsored Expert

Panel to find positive outcomes for all parties

• Periodic unsuccessful Ryanair bids • Shareholder overhang – Ryanair (29.82%)

Government (25.11%) • Concentrated share register/ lack of liquidity

• Removal of source of uncertainty in share price performance • Potential to deliver further operating efficiencies as

part of negotiations in return for once- off financial contribution • Release of barriers for exit of longer serving employees

• Government may dispose of stake •UK Competition Commission final report in August 2013

concluded Ryanair must reduce its stake to 5% • Liquidity will improve once overhang is removed

•Using Dublin base to concentrate on inbound/transfer traffic and growing the network aided by superior connections to US with pre-clearance process

•Operationally leveraged to benefit from on-going Irish recovery

• Inbound tourism numbers are growing

•On-going structural need for business travel

• Increasing long haul market share

Challenges Opportunities

Economic factors

CORE •Management to target €30 million savings

through CORE, mainly from staff costs • Legacy industrial relations environment

•Normalisation of industrial relations environment and resolution of legacy staff issues •Once delivered, will improve competition and P&L

resilience against an evolving Ryanair customer proposition

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Appendices

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Appendix 1: Contact Aer Lingus

For further information please visit http://corporate.aerlingus.com or contact:

Investors & analysts

Catherine McGuinness Jonathan Neilan

Aer Lingus Group plc FTI Consulting

Tel: +353 1 886 2892 Tel: +353 1 663 3686

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Irish Media

Declan Kearney Sheila Gahan

Aer Lingus Group plc Wilson Hartnell Public Relations

Tel: +353 1 886 3662 Tel: +353 1 669 0030

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

International Media

Matthew Fletcher/Victoria Palmer-Moore

Powerscourt

Tel: +44 207 250 1446

Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

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Ticker AERL ID (Bloomberg)

Stock Exchange Dublin & London

Number of Shares Outstanding 534.04m

Share Price as at 5 June 2014 €1.52

Market Cap as at 5 June 2014 €811.74M

Dividend Policy 4c per share

Notes: (1) Upside from share prices as at 5 June 2014 (2) Holdings > 2%, % shareholding and value as at 30 April 2014 source: company documents and stock exchange announcements

Appendix 2: Trading information

Shareholder % Shareholding Value (€m)

Ryanair Holdings plc 29.82 235.7

Minister for Finance of Ireland 25.11 198.5

Etihad Airways 4.99 39.4

Mr. Denis O’Brien 3.80 30.1

Irish Life Investment Managers 2.71 21.4

Broker recommendations Key market data

Aer Lingus shareholders (2)

29.8%

25.1%

45.1% Ryanair Holdings plc

Minister for Finance ofIreland

Others

Broker Date Recommendation Target

Price Upside(1)

Goldman Sachs 18-Mar-14 Neutral €1.70 12%

Investec June 14 Buy €1.74 14%

Goodbody 24-Feb-14 Buy €1.70 12%

UBS 25-Feb-14 Neutral €1.55 2%

HSBC 24-Feb-14 Overweight (V) €2.00 32%

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• Ryanair launches first bid to acquire Aer Lingus following the 2006 IPO

• The European Commission opens a Phase II investigation into Ryanair’s hostile

bid. Original offer subsequently lapses

• European Commission prohibits the first takeover attempt

• Ryanair confirms it has increased its shareholding to 29.4%

• Second hostile bid received from Ryanair to purchase Aer Lingus. Offer does

not progress post January 2009

• Ryanair’s third offer to purchase Aer Lingus

• European Commission prohibits Ryanair’s third takeover bid

• UK Competition Commission issues its final report whereby Ryanair is ordered

to sell down its shareholding to less than 5%

Appendix 3: Update on Ryanair shareholding and bid activity

Oct 2006

Dec 2006

June 2007

Aug 2007

Dec 2008

June 2012

Feb 2013

Aug 2013

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Appendix 4: Fleet and finance lease profile

8

18 21

3

Owned Finance lease Operating lease ACMI

Fleet summary 2014 (no. of aircraft)

The Aer Lingus debt maturity profile extends until 2023. In 2013, finance lease repayments of €47.0 million were made. Based on the 31 December 2013 US$/EUR FX rates our finance lease repayment schedule from 2014 through to the remainder of the lease terms are as set out opposite:

Debt repayment profile (€’m)

114

84

27 29

65

159

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19-FY23

3 4 3

33

4 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

A330-2 02 A330-302 A321-211 A320-200 A319-100 B757

Source: Finance lease repayments Aer Lingus FY13 annual report

Source: Aer Lingus FY13 annual report Source: Aer Lingus FY13 annual report

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Appendix 5: Cyclical characteristics

• Seasonality is a feature of our business, with the second and third quarters, our busiest periods

Source: Aer Lingus FY13 annual report, H1 results 2012, Q3 Interim Management Statement

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013

Total revenue (€'m)

Operating profit (€'m) (before exceptionals)

Average fare yield pax (€)