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Aer Lingus US roadshow June 2014
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Disclaimer | Forward looking information
Certain information included in these statements is forward-looking and involves risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward looking statements.
Forward looking statements include, without limitation, projections relating to results of operations and financial conditions and the Company's plans and objectives for future operations, including, without limitation, discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, expected future revenues, financing plans and expected expenditures and divestments. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information known to the Company on the date of this report. Due to such uncertainties and risks, you should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements, which speak only as at the date of this report. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law or by any appropriate regulatory authority.
It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could cause the Company's forward looking statements to be incorrect or that could otherwise have a material adverse effect on the future operations or results of an airline operating in the global economy. Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact the Company’s expected results are the fuel costs, competition from new and existing carriers, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of governments and regulatory authorities, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, industrial relations, the economic environment of the airline industry and the general economic environment in the markets to which the Company operates.
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Investment case
• Profitable and financially strong airline
• Aer Lingus has positioned itself over the past number of years to benefit from recovery in, and inbound traffic, from its key North American and European markets
• Irish economic recovery is expected to continue; Aer Lingus is well positioned to benefit from positive Irish economic trends
• Commitment to an annual dividend policy generates attractive yield for investors
• Aer Lingus has achieved long haul growth in 2013 which was ahead of market trends; further above market growth is being delivered in 2014
• Possible future share register liquidity events relating to Ryanair and Irish Government shareholdings
• Pension issue is the last legacy issue. Resolution of this issue will facilitate normalisation of the Aer Lingus balance sheet and enable an above average return on equity for our shareholders
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Aer Lingus- At a glance
• Established in 1936; floated on the London and Irish stock exchanges in 2006
• Primary mission is to connect Ireland with the world
• Transformational turnaround since 2009
• Serves approx. 90 routes with additional 20 routes served by franchise operations and circa 77 additional destinations via codeshare agreements
• Over 10.6 million passengers carried in 2013 through mainline and franchise operations
• Significant long haul growth in 2014 through damp leases of three Boeing 757 aircraft operating on the North Atlantic and services to new destinations (Toronto and San Francisco)
• Consistent profitability since 2010 with upper tier operating margin among European peers
• Strong balance sheet with €0.9 billion of gross cash at 31 December 2013
• Passenger fare revenue supplemented by strong retail revenue streams, cargo and contract flying operations
• Fleet of 50 consists of 47 Airbus and three Boeing 757s
• Young fleet facilitates a competitive unit cost position; with average age of fleet of 8.2 years at 31 December 2013
• Nine A350 aircraft on order with Airbus with deliveries likely over the period 2018 to 2020
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Aer Lingus provides exposure to recovering Irish economy
• Aer Lingus’ successful trading performance since 2009 has been driven by serving inbound demand from North American and European markets
• Irish economy and passenger numbers have not yet recovered to the same extent as other European markets
• For example, Frankfurt Airport passenger numbers are up 13.9% from trough in 2009. This compares to flat Dublin passenger trends between 2009 and 2013
• Irish economic recovery has under-performed UK and US but is forecast to grow faster than Eurozone average in 2014 and thereafter
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 P FY15 P FY19 P
US Euro area Ireland UK
Source 1: www.fraport.com and www.daa.ie Source 2: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2014
Passenger numbers (millions) (1)
Actual and Forecast GDP (% real change) (2)
23.5
20.2 18.4 18.7 19.1 20.2
53.4 50.9 53.0
56.4 57.5 58.0
15.018.021.024.027.030.033.036.039.042.045.048.051.054.057.060.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Dublin airport passenger numbers Frankfurt airport passenger numbers
-14%
-5% +4% +6% +2% +1%
-9% +2% +2% +6%
2008 passenger level
6
89%
11%
Short haul Long haul
67%
33%
Short haul Long haul
• 80/20 split of leisure and “visiting friends and relatives”/business traffic through Dublin Airport
• “Visiting friends and relatives” has remained relatively stable and unaffected by economic events over time
• Aer Lingus holds 43% of market share of all passenger traffic at the three largest Irish airports
Market overview
25%
17%
21% 20% 17%
20% 21% 22% 23%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
VFR Mainholiday
Additionalholiday
Business Other
Dublin Airport Aer Lingus
Purpose of journey
Source: Aer Lingus 2013 annual report
FY13 Passenger profile
Passenger numbers
Notes: VFR is an abbreviation for “Visiting Friends & Relatives” Source: Aer Lingus 2013 annual report
44%
14%
37%
5%
Great Britain US & Canada
Other Europe Other locations
Source of inbound visitors
Source: CSO Overseas Travel (April 2014)
Fare revenue
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Delta United Airlines Lufthansa jetBlue Vueling Allegiant Ryanair Southwest
Attractive business model
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HIGH
LOW
Traditional LCC
A seat with very basic
and limited paid add-
ons
Secondary airports
Charge to check-in
No seat recline No window blinds No coat hooks No literature pockets Low seat pitch
Paid food and drinks with limited choice
No jetways
No transfers
Credit card based reward programme
Central airports with selected multi channel distribution
Lounge access for FFP
FlexiFares
Good seat comfort, recline and amenities
Pre-order food/ all-day breakfast & good crew engagement
Occasional use of jetways
Limited transfer connectivity
FFP with few
partners
Aer Lingus Strong core
product attributes
with benefit-driven paid
options
Enhanced modular offering for customers
SER
VIC
E LE
VEL
RA
TIN
G
Primary airports with full multi channel distribution
More ways to check-in and premium desks
Higher quality lounges
Carry children unaccompanied
Greater seat pitch than Hybrid or LCC’s
Free food and beverages
Comp drinks
Higher crew: pax ratio
Consistent use of jetways
Full transfer connectivity
Full alliance driven FFP with many partners
Leveraged use of customer database and customer contact strategy
Full Service Multiple product
attributes and services
that are all-inclusive
• Aer Lingus has positioned itself as a “value carrier” between the pure “low fares” and higher cost full service models, enabling it to compete efficiently in key markets
• Neutral/ unaligned status allows for a broad range of alliances/ partnerships spanning the airline alliances to our mutual benefit Examples
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Short haul overview
Commercial strategy of carefully managing capacity deployment and focusing on maximising yield per seat is delivering positive results
• Extensive short haul network with more than 100 city pairs
• Central airport offering appeals to both business and leisure markets
• Convenient schedules
-60% daily
-50% multiple daily
• Strong competition with noticeable overlap from Ryanair, AF KLM, Lufthansa and BA
• Short haul capacity deployment has remained steady in recent years and focus has instead been on revenue maximisation through load factor and fare yields.
Passengers carried
('000s) FY12 FY13
Mainline 8,674 8,527
Aer Lingus regional 1,010 1,112
Total 9,684 9,639
Source: 2013 preliminary results announcement
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Commercial strategy of carefully managing capacity deployment and focusing on maximising yield per seat is delivering positive results
• Network reach powered by:
- Schedule connectivity
- Partnerships
- US preclearance at Dublin and
Shannon
• Six gateways served (New York,
Boston, Chicago, Orlando, San
Francisco and Toronto)
• Partnerships and connectivity
continuing to play key role in
growing passenger volume
• 77 onward connections from New
York (JFK), Boston, Chicago and
Toronto
• Long haul performance in FY13
was positive, supported by a
strong underlying demand with a
12.2% increase in passengers
carried YOY (979 in FY12 to 1,098
in FY13)
Long haul overview
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2014 Transatlantic Expansion
2014 Aer Lingus long haul Increase in ASKs Increase in Seats
Dublin to San Francisco (SFO) 13% 8%
Dublin to Toronto (YYZ) 6% 7%
Other – SNN to JFK/BOS 5% 5%
Total expansion (versus 2013) 24% 20%
Well positioned for continued growth in 2014 with introduction of three B757s. Expansion is in line with expectations with no significant adverse competitor reaction to additional Aer Lingus long haul capacity
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60.5
65.8
77.4
18.5%
23.0%
27.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
FY11 FY12 FY13
Interline revenue (€'m)
Long passenger traffic connected from/ to our partner airlines (%)
789
832
882
700
750
800
850
900
FY11 FY12 FY13
Partnerships deliver cost effective network extension
A selection of our partner airlines
+6.0%
+5.4%
• Aer Lingus benefits from open network architecture with a range of airline partners serving all continents
• Following the change in business model, long haul passenger traffic connections from and to our partner airlines increased from 19% in FY11 to 27% in FY13
• Approximately 48% of total long haul passengers were connecting passengers in FY13 (including Aer Lingus Regional franchise operators)
Interline revenue (€’m) (1)
Interline passengers (‘000) (1)
Note 1: Excludes Aer Lingus Regional Source: Aer Lingus 2013/2012 annual report
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Aer Lingus is a key jetBlue partner serving the Boston gateway
• 40% growth in Aer Lingus passenger traffic through Boston since 2010
• Aer Lingus passengers benefit from extensive jetBlue network from Boston
• jetBlue’s strategy is to continue to grow the Boston market. At the end of 2013 jetBlue flew to 49 destinations from Boston and increased its Boston seat share % from 15% in 2009 to over 30% in 2013
• Aer Lingus growth to jetBlue’s Boston gateway demonstrates value of partnership to both sides
Aer Lingus passenger traffic into Boston from Ireland Jet Blue route network out of Boston
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
40%
Aer Lingus traffic
Source: jetBlue 2013 Analyst day presentation and jetBlue 2013 10K
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Transformational turnaround since 2009
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1,050.0
1,100.0
1,150.0
1,200.0
1,250.0
1,300.0
1,350.0
1,400.0
1,450.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenue EBITDAR margin % Staff costs % revenue
74.5% 76.1% 75.6%
77.7% 78.4%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Short haul Long haul Overall
• Transition to value carrier business model and restoration of profitability
• Margin improvement driven by increased yields, reduced costs and stronger volumes
• Launch of Greenfield cost reduction programme in 2009 resulted in annual savings of €104.2 million by December 2012
Improved trading performance and staff costs reduction
Steady load factor improvement (%)
Improved average revenue per seat (€)
Source: Aer Lingus Annual Reports 2009-2013
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Short haul Long haul Total avg fare revenue per seat
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Next steps: “CORE” programme
“CORE” is a 2 year programme which commenced in February 2014, with the aim of continuous focus on delivering efficiency and cost savings across the organisation to protect competitiveness and grow margin
“CORE” Cost Optimisation and Revenue Excellence
Cost & business
optimisation
Revenue excellence
Our people
•Simplify & improve our core airline processes for the benefit of our customers
•Transform selected support functions into profit centres
•Further headcount reductions and increased productivity by end of 2015
•Total cost reduction target of €30 million by end of 2015
Further develop our merchandising & retail offers
•Delivering the “customer journey of the future” As part of this initiative, we will:
•Re-launch our website with a re-designed booking portal
•Improve our mobile app
•Have all our transatlantic flights from Dublin pre-cleared for the Summer schedule
•Introduce fully lie-flat seats on our long haul flights by Q1 2015
•Move to the new Queen’s terminal at London Heathrow in Summer 2014
•Replace our current passenger reservation system with state of the art technology
•Further improvements in staff engagement, training, flexibility and productivity
•Normalise and improve industrial relations environment
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Strong financial performance • EBITDAR improvement from €57.6 million in FY09
to €189.2 million in FY13 driven by:
– Positive and steady revenue growth
– Higher fuel and airport charges were offset by significant cost savings due to Greenfield initiatives
• 2013 operating result was adversely impacted by exceptionally fine weather in Summer 2013 in addition to significant price discounting in Northern European markets in the second half of 2013
• Focus going forward on achieving continued cost savings and greater efficiency with the “CORE” programme with €30 million annual savings to be achieved by the end of 2015
• Shareholder equity improvement from €704.5 million in 2009 to €852.8 million in 2013 driven by an improvement in retained earnings over this period
• Gross debt comprises aircraft lease financing and is secured by the aircraft that it finances (flight equipment NBV of €662.9 million at December 2013 of which €465.6 million were leased assets)
Source: Aer Lingus Annual Reports 2009-2013 Note 1: Excludes slot and brand value as these intangible assets are not recognised on the Aer Lingus balance sheet Note 2: Free cash flow is defined as operating cash flow (after exceptional items) less net capex and net interest paid
Profit and loss €'m FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Revenue 1,205.7 1,215.6 1,288.3 1,393.3 1,425.1
YOY growth % n/a 0.8% 6.0% 8.2% 2.3%
Total costs (1,148.1) (1,024.0) (1,115.5) (1,202.0) (1,235.9)
EBITDAR 57.6 191.6 172.8 191.3 189.2
EBITDAR margin % 4.8% 15.8% 13.4% 13.7% 13.3%
EBIT before exceptional (80.9) 52.6 49.1 69.1 61.1
EBIT margin % (6.7%) 4.3% 3.8% 5.0% 4.3%
EPS (Basic & diluted) (24.6) 8.1 13.4 6.4 6.4
Selected Balance sheet and Cash flow elements €'m FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Total assets (1) 1,730.5 1,812.9 1,827.6 1,782.0 1,746.0
Gross cash 828.5 885.0 894.8 908.5 897.4
Gross debt 492.6 535.2 577.2 531.6 477.6
Net cash 335.8 349.8 317.5 376.9 419.8
Total net assets 704.5 802.4 836.7 834.7 852.8
Free cash flow (2) (270.7) 66.4 63.7 75.2 76.3
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0.02
0.04 0.04 0.05
0.05 0.06 0.06
0.09 0.09
- 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
10.3 9.3
8.1 7.9 7.6 7.2 5.9 5.4
3.6 3.5 2.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12• Following its strategic re-positioning, Aer Lingus offers high quality customer service on a sustainably profitable basis
• Despite the strong financial performance, Aer Lingus is trading at a discount to the sector
Strong financial performance relative to peers
Mean: 7.2
Mean:0.05 EBITDAR mean: 11.6%
EBIT mean: 3.0%
EV/ EBITDAR- 2013e (2)
EBITDAR and EBIT margin 2013 (1)
Note 1: Source: Latest available annual report ending in 2013 for all apart from Ryanair based on preliminary March 2014 results Note 2: HSBC global research (Transport Airlines) February 2014
Cost per ASK (excl fuel) € (1)
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
EBITDAR EBIT
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Gross cash of €0.9 billion at 31 December 2013
No corporate level debt. All debt relates to finance leases and is secured on underlying aircraft assets
Free cash flow of €76.3 million for 2013 with no significant near term CAPEX requirements.
Value of net assets per share of €1.60 versus share price of €1.28 as at 31 December 2013
Asset strength on and off balance sheet
Fundamentally strong business with valuable asset base on and off balance sheet
Iconic brand with over 75 years of brand equity
Recognised as the national airline of Ireland. Irish diaspora comprises 70 million globally
Strong emphasis on customer service through careful brand management – “Great fare, great fare”
No value recognised for our brand on the balance sheet
Valuable brand Valuable slot portfolio
Aer Lingus is the fourth largest holder of slots at London Heathrow and is due to move to Terminal 2 in June 2014 where it will be one of the largest operators
Difficult to replicate portfolio in other airports such as Dublin, Frankfurt and New York JFK
No value attributable to slot
portfolio on balance sheet
Gross cash and debt
At 31 Dec 2013 (€’millions)
897.4
(477.6)
419.8
(1000.0)
(500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
Gross cash Gross debt Net cash
Gross cash Gross debt Net cash
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Challenges and opportunities
Pension
Share register
• Cyclical industry correlated to trends in underlying economic activity
• Domestic demand in Ireland is currently recovering
• Competitive pressure throughout economy
• Growth highly export focused
• Highly complex funding issues with pension schemes •On-going negotiations with labour representatives • Deficit not company responsibility • Engagement with government sponsored Expert
Panel to find positive outcomes for all parties
• Periodic unsuccessful Ryanair bids • Shareholder overhang – Ryanair (29.82%)
Government (25.11%) • Concentrated share register/ lack of liquidity
• Removal of source of uncertainty in share price performance • Potential to deliver further operating efficiencies as
part of negotiations in return for once- off financial contribution • Release of barriers for exit of longer serving employees
• Government may dispose of stake •UK Competition Commission final report in August 2013
concluded Ryanair must reduce its stake to 5% • Liquidity will improve once overhang is removed
•Using Dublin base to concentrate on inbound/transfer traffic and growing the network aided by superior connections to US with pre-clearance process
•Operationally leveraged to benefit from on-going Irish recovery
• Inbound tourism numbers are growing
•On-going structural need for business travel
• Increasing long haul market share
Challenges Opportunities
Economic factors
CORE •Management to target €30 million savings
through CORE, mainly from staff costs • Legacy industrial relations environment
•Normalisation of industrial relations environment and resolution of legacy staff issues •Once delivered, will improve competition and P&L
resilience against an evolving Ryanair customer proposition
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Appendices
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Appendix 1: Contact Aer Lingus
For further information please visit http://corporate.aerlingus.com or contact:
Investors & analysts
Catherine McGuinness Jonathan Neilan
Aer Lingus Group plc FTI Consulting
Tel: +353 1 886 2892 Tel: +353 1 663 3686
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
Irish Media
Declan Kearney Sheila Gahan
Aer Lingus Group plc Wilson Hartnell Public Relations
Tel: +353 1 886 3662 Tel: +353 1 669 0030
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
International Media
Matthew Fletcher/Victoria Palmer-Moore
Powerscourt
Tel: +44 207 250 1446
Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
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Ticker AERL ID (Bloomberg)
Stock Exchange Dublin & London
Number of Shares Outstanding 534.04m
Share Price as at 5 June 2014 €1.52
Market Cap as at 5 June 2014 €811.74M
Dividend Policy 4c per share
Notes: (1) Upside from share prices as at 5 June 2014 (2) Holdings > 2%, % shareholding and value as at 30 April 2014 source: company documents and stock exchange announcements
Appendix 2: Trading information
Shareholder % Shareholding Value (€m)
Ryanair Holdings plc 29.82 235.7
Minister for Finance of Ireland 25.11 198.5
Etihad Airways 4.99 39.4
Mr. Denis O’Brien 3.80 30.1
Irish Life Investment Managers 2.71 21.4
Broker recommendations Key market data
Aer Lingus shareholders (2)
29.8%
25.1%
45.1% Ryanair Holdings plc
Minister for Finance ofIreland
Others
Broker Date Recommendation Target
Price Upside(1)
Goldman Sachs 18-Mar-14 Neutral €1.70 12%
Investec June 14 Buy €1.74 14%
Goodbody 24-Feb-14 Buy €1.70 12%
UBS 25-Feb-14 Neutral €1.55 2%
HSBC 24-Feb-14 Overweight (V) €2.00 32%
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• Ryanair launches first bid to acquire Aer Lingus following the 2006 IPO
• The European Commission opens a Phase II investigation into Ryanair’s hostile
bid. Original offer subsequently lapses
• European Commission prohibits the first takeover attempt
• Ryanair confirms it has increased its shareholding to 29.4%
• Second hostile bid received from Ryanair to purchase Aer Lingus. Offer does
not progress post January 2009
• Ryanair’s third offer to purchase Aer Lingus
• European Commission prohibits Ryanair’s third takeover bid
• UK Competition Commission issues its final report whereby Ryanair is ordered
to sell down its shareholding to less than 5%
Appendix 3: Update on Ryanair shareholding and bid activity
Oct 2006
Dec 2006
June 2007
Aug 2007
Dec 2008
June 2012
Feb 2013
Aug 2013
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Appendix 4: Fleet and finance lease profile
8
18 21
3
Owned Finance lease Operating lease ACMI
Fleet summary 2014 (no. of aircraft)
The Aer Lingus debt maturity profile extends until 2023. In 2013, finance lease repayments of €47.0 million were made. Based on the 31 December 2013 US$/EUR FX rates our finance lease repayment schedule from 2014 through to the remainder of the lease terms are as set out opposite:
Debt repayment profile (€’m)
114
84
27 29
65
159
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19-FY23
3 4 3
33
4 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
A330-2 02 A330-302 A321-211 A320-200 A319-100 B757
Source: Finance lease repayments Aer Lingus FY13 annual report
Source: Aer Lingus FY13 annual report Source: Aer Lingus FY13 annual report
24
Appendix 5: Cyclical characteristics
• Seasonality is a feature of our business, with the second and third quarters, our busiest periods
Source: Aer Lingus FY13 annual report, H1 results 2012, Q3 Interim Management Statement
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2013
Total revenue (€'m)
Operating profit (€'m) (before exceptionals)
Average fare yield pax (€)