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Aerospace Industry is Critical to the Economy of the United States:

Role and Importance of Experimental Fluid Dynamics (Ground Test) Capabilities

Working Draft by DunnSeptember 2013

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Purpose of his Document

1. Begin the logic layout for defining the role and importance of Experimental Fluid Dynamics (Ground Testing) to the National aeronautics/aerospace and defense industries and, ultimately, to the National economy.

2. Define the attributes/terms to be used for a document review template that will be used to collect and review published information as part of the working group meta-analysis.

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Aero Industry Markets

RESEARCH (Academia, Industry, Government)

FIXED WING

SPACE LAUNCH TRANSPORATION, SUBORBITAL TRANSPORTATION

MISSILES

UAVs

GEN. AVIATION

FIGHTERS, ISR, HS BOMBERS

ENTRY, DESCENT, LANDING FROM SPACE

SUBSONIC TRANSONIC SUPERSONIC HYPERSONIC0 0.7 1.2 5(Mach Number) 18+

ROTORCRAFT

Commercial Transports, Some Bombers

Annual Market* ($B)USA World

[Note: Where to include RDT&E capability investment and sustainment? Embedded or separate?]

XX.X

XX.X

X.X

XX.X

X.X

X.X

XX.X

XX.X

XX.XX.X

X.X XX.X

X.X XX.X

X.X XX.X

X.X X.X

XXX.XXXX.X

* Data Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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Environment• Market (customer) needs• Safety requirements and expectations• Stovepiped national capabilities• Uncertain space strategy• Sluggish US economy• Gov’t regulation generally increasing• Uncertain gov’t economic policies

Forces• National defense and force projection needs• US and international competition• Speed to market• Minimalist budget thinking• Government vs. industry roles• Low initial cost vs. life cycle best value

‒ Tax law‒ CR’s, 5 years and counting‒ Affordable Care Act

changes‒ Sequestration‒ “Strategic” is 2 years

‒ Interest rate (Fed Res

policies)‒ Free Trade Agreements

pending‒ Dodd-Frank changes

Research New Product Development

US Economy

World Economy

Spin-offs (non-aero)- Technologies - New Products

Aero Industry Economic Engine

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Research Engine

Experimental Fluid Dynamics• Basic services infrastructure• Test capability infrastructure• Test techniques/capabilities• Measurement technologies• People trained & certified• Calibration and validation

Code Development• Software tools• Adaptation to purpose• Code validation• Skilled people• Compute infrastructure

Research Element: Can be aero-based or measurement/ capability/ technique – using EFD, CFD, lab or (likely) some combination. Includes researcher subject matter expertise.

Investments required to establish research capabilities

Research Element

Experimental Ground Test/ Laboratories

Computational Methods

System Integration

Prior Research

Prior Products

Experimental Ground Test/ Laboratories

Computational Methods

Prior Research

Prior ProductsScience & Technology

(S&T) Capabilities

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Product Development Life Cycle

Multiple Research Elements, Systems

Research, and Prior Product

Knowledge Base

New Product

Exploration [Concept

Dev’mt and Selection

Product Devel’mt

Flight Test

Initial Production

Configure Form of Product

Integrated Req’mts

and Basic Concept

Integrated Model/

Code Devel’mt

Go/No-go Decision

Utilize EFD/CFD for Development, Test & Evaluation

Market Need

PRODUCT IDEA!Problem Cycle

Problem

Risk Management and Business Case

Develop Fix

Problem: Resulting from inadequate earlier risk management (hazard identification criticality, mitigation, and system integration)

TechnicalIntegrated performanceMarket need and forces (includes competition)

Includes economic climateRegulatory/government environmentFinancial

CapitalizationCost model, product life cycleRevenue model, life cycle

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Role of EFD in the RDT&E Process

Crucial to gain understanding of aero physics behavior at each step (fluids, structure/materials, propulsion and propulsion integration, product system integration, and environmental interactions) :• Research• Configuration/form of product• Concept development, refinement, and selection• Product development• Flight test• Initial production• Product modifications

Specific EFD contribution to each step is demonstrable Part of working group effort

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Risk of Losing Key National EFD Capabilities Is Increasing

• Factors driving risk– Aging and inefficient physical infrastructure– Workforce demographics– Maintenance stretched across old and repurposed facilities– New/updated capability and productivity investments– Organizational stovepiping by capability owners– Funding models/methods variability/inconsistency– Cyclical and declining workloads– Tightening sustainment budgets– Understanding (lack) of role of GT in the aero RDT&E process – Short term outlooks for political cycles and business performance

• Demonstrated responses to these risks– Reduced sustainment and investment (degrades capabilities)– Reduced availability (block, sequential, spaced, limited operations)– Reduced or eliminated capabilities and/or capacities

• Facility/capability stand down or mothball• Facility/capability abandonment/closure

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Economics of Ground TestingA Possible Scenario

Equation: Capability Development and Sustainment Costs versus Direct and Indirect Benefit to the US and the World

• Assume– Market economy complete product turnover over next 30 years– Average 2% annual growth across all market segments– Baseline is FY2012– Existing GT capabilities are sunk cost

• Costs– Develop and sustain capabilities– Invest in new technologies and applications (capabilities and efficiencies)

• Benefits– GT contribution to research feeds new product development– GT contribution to new product risk management [show relative to contribution at each step of

the RDT&E process]– Estimate range and dollar value of impacts

Extreme case: All EFD facilities are closed/mothballed by 2020 Likely case: EFD workload will continue to decline and capabilities and capacities will

decline by a like amount

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Working Group Literature ReviewInitial Draft of Topic Areas

• Research needs:– Direct contribution (testing); ability to “try stuff”– Support contribution (code calibration and validation)

• Product development needs– Direct and supportive contributions to each stage of development– Risk management role for each stage

• Market differences?

• Workload projections by market, US and world– By speed range, mission (within market), new products

• Evolving roles and use of EFD and CFD • Detections of product problems, early and for remediation • Aero market spin-offs/contributions to other markets

– Economic impacts, specific products, quality of life• Facility/capability risk factors: status, how being addressed, impacts• Environment factors and market forces over next years• EFD as part of the product business case• Capability investment projections